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Technology Stocks

WiseTech declared strong FY21 results and uplift in dividends

Investment Thesis:

  • WiseTech is ahead of its nearest competitors, which clearly makes it a market leader
  • Increased globalization results in growing global trade, thereby accelerating selling of products 
  • Annual customer turnover rate is low and revenue visibility is high
  • Enhancement of WTC products evident from the amount spent on R&D 
  • WTC’s long term goal is to be the operating system for world-wide logistics 
  • After acquiring 39 companies since it got listed on stock exchange in 2016, WTC has built up substantial resources and development capabilities to drive its CargoWise technology pipeline.
  • The scalability of WiseTech business model  
  • Due to higher consolidation of the logistics software industry, geopolitical tensions are considered as tailwinds by management 

Key Risks:

  • Another earnings downgrade is announced by the company
  • Organic growth could narrow down further, which might not result in such high valuation. Although, organic growth was improved during FY19.
  • Management has observed that the revenues from recent acquisitions have declined indeed and rendered very less margin. This means that the return obtained from these acquisitions could take longer than management’s expectations
  • Threats from competition like new product/technological advancements
  • Disruption caused due to technology (data breach)
  • Currency moving adversely

Key Highlights:

  • Share price of WiseTech Global Ltd (WTC) rose by 28.5% after its announcement of FY21 results which is higher than market estimates and the Company’s own expectation. 
  • Strong uplift in dividend payments has also been declared
  • Total Revenue for FY21 is $507.5m, which is up by +18% (or +24% ex FX)
  • EBITDA of $206.7m, is up by +63% in comparison to FY20
  • FY21 NPAT is $105.8m, which was up by +101% with reference to FY20
  • Investment of $167.1m by WTC in Research and Development (up from $159.1m in FY20), which is about 33% of total revenue, ensures that WTC stay ahead of its competitors
  • Management announced a strong FY22 outlook, expecting revenue growth of 18% – 25% and EBITDA growth of 26% – 38% 

Company Profile:

WiseTech Global (WTC) which was founded in October 1994, is a leading provider of software to the logistics services industry globally. WTC develops, sells and implements software solutions that enable logistics service providers to facilitate the movement and storage of goods, domestically and internationally. WTC’s software assists their customers to better address and adapt to the complexities of the logistics industry while increasing their productivity, reducing costs and mitigating risks. WTC services over 6,000 customers across more than 115 countries with offices in Australia, New Zealand, China, Singapore, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States. 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Avita Benefits From the Incidence of Burns Normalising

currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. It is believed Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Despite the technology in Avita’s RECELL system being in use since the Bali bombings in 2002, the product has had limited commercial success as it entered the market as an investigational device. This limited the reimbursement and take-up of the product. RECELL relaunched in the U.S. following randomized clinical trials and FDA approval in late 2018. Currently, it’s approved for treating second and third degree burns in adults, and Phase 3 pediatrics clinical trials began in first-quarter calendar 2020.

The treatment of severe burns in the U.S. is concentrated across the 136 burn centers, making commercial roll-out of RECELL straightforward. Of the approximately 14,000 adults with second- or third-degree burns treated at these burn centers each year, Avita could ramp-up to 37% share or 5,200 patients per year by fiscal 2026. The cost of RECELL compares favorably with a skin graft in this setting, as RECELL has a list price of USD 7,500 per single-use unit versus the USD 17,000 to USD 20,000 cost of a skin graft. It also has the benefits of shorter length of stay and fewer additional procedures.

Financial Strengths

Avita is in a solid financial position with no debt, and cash on the balance sheet of USD 111 million as at June 30, 2021, Having raised AUD 120 million in equity funding in November 2019, and a further USD 69 million in February 2021. It is expected that the operations of the company to be a net consumer of cash in fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 as it scales up operations, and become free cash flow positive thereafter. Key operational cash requirements include the Salesforce and clinical trials and approvals for new indications. There is little capital investment required as the owned factory where it assembles the RECELL systems in the U.S. is currently running at only 10% capacity. 

Bulls Say

  • Avita’s RECELL system as a sound alternative treatment for large second- and third-degree burns treated in burn centers. It compares favorably on price and ease of use with new products and the existing standard of care being skin grafts.
  • The company requires little invested capital and is expected to generate very high returns once it ramps up its commercial roll-out.
  • RECELL has achieved an estimated 17% market share in its key addressable market since launching in 2019 and shows promising signs to expand its use for other indications.

Company Profile

Avita is a single product company. Its RECELL system is an innovative burn treatment device which creates Spray-on Skin from a small skin sample within 30 minutes, thus avoiding or reducing the need for skin grafts. It’s approved for the treatment of adult patients in the U.S. with pediatric clinical trials and expanded indications in soft-tissue reconstruction and vitiligo underway. It is currently in roll-out across the approximately 136 U.S. burn centers. Despite having product approval in Australia, Europe, Canada, and China, Avita is not actively marketing in those territories and focusing instead on the U.S. region. However, it is expected to gain approval and launch in Japan via distribution partner Cosmotec shortly. Avita is domiciled, and has its primary listing, in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Western Digital merger with Kioxia to Become Global NAND Behemoth

Such a deal would be a defensive, but prudent, move by Western to reinforce its competitive position in the swiftly consolidating chip market. In the long term, it is expected the NAND market to follow the dynamics of DRAM and HDDs, and consolidate down to about three leading players for a largely commodity like product. 

Western and rival Micron were interested in a Kioxia tie up. Western would be materially better off by beating Micron to the deal, either deal would create three dominant players in NAND, and Western would avoid being on the outside looking in. Nevertheless, a potential deal wouldn’t alter no-moat or stable moat trend ratings for Western. The company maintains $70 fair value estimate for Western Digital until a deal is officially announced. 

Although they are competitors, Western and Kioxia have a long-standing joint venture for their NAND manufacturing, wherein the firms invest equally, buy chips back, and compete to sell them on the open market. The potential combination would create the largest NAND supplier in the world, barely edging out current leader Samsung. 

Company’s Future Outlook

A deal would further emphasize the strategic differences between Western Digital and HDD rival Seagate. While Seagate has doubled down on mass capacity HDDs for enterprise and cloud customers, Western has diversified into flash with its 2016 SanDisk acquisition and now the potential Kioxia deal. The deal would reportedly be funded entirely through stock. For privately held Kioxia, $20 billion or more would secure a solid return, especially after pursuing a $16 billion valuation in a suspended 2019 IPO. Seagate will able to earn more attractive returns by staying out of the high-investment NAND market. 

Company Profile

Western Digital is a leading vertically-integrated supplier of data storage solutions, spanning both hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs). In the HDD market it forms a practical duopoly with Seagate, and it is the largest global producer of NAND flash chips for SSDs in a joint venture with competitor Kioxia.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Salesforce Margin Performance Bodes Well Long-Term; FVE up to $292

Even as revenue growth is likely to dip below 20% for the first time at some point in the next several years, ongoing margin expansion should continue to compound earnings growth of more than 20% annually for much longer. Sales force’s fair value estimate increased to $292.

Sales Cloud represents the original sales force automation product, which streamlined process management for sales leads and opportunities, contact and account data, process tracking, approvals, and territory tracking. Service Cloud brought in customer service applications, and Marketing Cloud delivers marketing automation solutions.  Sales force Platform also offers customers a platform-as-a-service solution, complete with the App Exchange, as a way to rapidly create and distribute apps. 

Sales force is widely considered a leader in each of its served markets, which is attractive on its own, but the tight integration among the solutions and the natural fit they have with one another makes for a powerful value proposition. To that end, more than half of enterprise customers use multiple clouds. Further, customer retention has gradually improved over time and is better than 90.

Financial strength

Salesforce.com is a financially sound company. The last traded price of Salesforce was 260.85 USD while its FVE (Fair value Estimate) is 292.00 USD, which shows that Salesforce has potential to grow.

Revenue is growing rapidly, while margins are expanding. As of Jan. 31, Salesforce.com had $12.0 billion in cash and investments, offset by $2.7 billion in debt, resulting in a net cash position of $9.3 billion.  Further, Salesforce generated free cash flow margins in excess of 17% in each of the last four years, including 18% in fiscal 2021, which was negatively impacted by COVID-19. In terms of capital deployment, Salesforce makes acquisitions rather than pay a dividend or repurchase shares. 

Bull Says

  • Salesforce.com dominates the SFA space but still only controls 30% in a highly fragmented market that continues to grow double digits each year, suggesting there is still room to run.
  • The company has added legs to the overall growth story, including customer service, marketing automation, e-commerce, analytics, and artificial intelligence.
  • Salesforce.com’s margins are subscale, with a runway to more than 100 basis points of operating expansion annually for the next decade. Indeed, management has put more emphasis on expanding margins in recent quarters.

Company Profile

Salesforce.com provides enterprise cloud computing solutions, including Sales Cloud, the company’s main customer relationship management software-as-a-service product. Salesforce.com also offers Service Cloud for customer support, Marketing Cloud for digital marketing campaigns, Commerce Cloud as an e-commerce engine, the Sales force Platform, which allows enterprises to build applications, and other solutions, such as Mule Soft for data integration.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Improvements in occupancy to be the major driver for driving up G8 revenues

Investment Thesis

  • Trading at a discount to our valuation.
  • With a growing population, the long-term outlook for childcare demand remains positive (organic and net immigration).
  • Increased emphasis on both organic and acquired growth.
  • Increasing exposure to international markets (Asia).
  • Strategic investor China First Capital Group (12.45% stake in GEM) may see a collaborative expansion into the Chinese market.
  • The Company’s national footprint enables it to scale more effectively than competitors and mom and pop shops.
  • A global operator could be interested in acquiring the company.
  • Improve occupancy levels by leveraging – (rough estimates) A 1% increase in occupancy equates to $10-11 million in revenue and a $3 million EBIT benefit.

Key Risks 

  • The company faces execution risk in meeting its FY19 earnings per share (EPS) target.
  • Pricing pressure is being exerted as a result of increased competition.
  • Increased supply in some areas has resulted in lower occupancy rates.
  • Acquisition with a negative impact on value (s).
  • Execution risk associated with offshore expansion.
  • Childcare funding cuts or adverse regulatory changes
  • Australia is experiencing a recession.
  • Dividend reduction

FY21 Result Highlights

  • Revenue of $421.5 million (vs. $308.2 million in CY20 H1 and $429.9 million in CY19 H1) reflects occupancy recovery and the effects of greenfield growth, Victorian Government Covid-19 payments, and the February fee review, offset by divestments.
  • GEM saw an increase in national Core average occupancy to 68.0 percent (from 65.1 percent in CY20 H1), but it remains below pre-Covid levels of 70.4 percent in CY19 H1.
  • Operating EBIT (after lease interest) of $38.9m was up from $19.7m in CY20 H1 (restated) and in line with $38.8m in CY19 H1 (restated), owing to the “benefits of the Improvement Process, February fee review, and greenfield growth being invested in increasing system support and quality.” 
  • The statutory NPAT of $25.1 million was an improvement over the net loss after tax of $244 million.
  • GEM’s balance sheet remains strong, with a net cash position.
  • GEM did not pay an interim dividend, but the Board “expects dividend payments to resume with a full-year CY21 dividend to be paid in CY22.”
  • GEM’s employee remediation programme is well-advanced, with a provision of $80 million pre-tax ($57 million after tax), less costs incurred to date.

Company Profile 

G8 Education Limited (GEM) owns and operates care and education services in Australia and Singapore through a range of brands. The Company initially listed on the ASX in December 2007 under the name of Early Learning Services, but later merged with Payce Child Care to become G8 Education.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Cochlear’s Reported Strong FY21 Results

Investment Thesis

  • Benefits from an Australian tax incentive are possible. The patent box tax regime for medical technology and biotechnology, if legislation is successfully passed, should encourage the development of advancement in Australia by taxing corporate income derived from patents at a concessional effective corporate tax rate of 17 percent, with the concession applicable from income years beginning on or after 1 July 2022.
  • Attractive market dynamics – growing population requiring hearing aids, improved health in EM allowing for greater access to devices such as hearing aids, and a relatively emerging real estate market. There is still a significant, unmet, and configurable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants, which is expected to underpin COH’s longterm sustainable growth.
  • Positions of global market leadership.
  • Direct-to-consumer marketing is anticipated to accelerate market growth.
  • Best-in-class R&D programme (significant monetary investment), resulting in the continuous development of new products and upgrades to the existing suite of products.
  • New product launches are fueling ongoing demand across all segments.
  • Attractive exposure to Chinese, Indian, and, more recently, Japanese growth.
  • A strong balance sheet position.

Key Risks 

  • Recall of a product
  • In China, a persistent coronavirus outbreak is delaying the resumption of hospital operations.
  • The R&D programme fails to produce innovative products.
  • Intensification of competitive pressures.
  • Modifications to the government’s reimbursement policy.
  • The AUD/USD has experienced negative movement.
  • The emerging market does not recover – this has a significant negative impact on earnings.

Key Results FY21 Highlights

  • Sales revenue of $1,493 million was up 10%, or 19% in constant currency (CC), driven by market share gains, market growth, and rescheduled surgeries following Covid lockdowns. Sales revenue increased by 6% (CC) over the previous fiscal year, which was unaffected by the pandemic.
  • Implant units increased by 15% to 36,456 (up 20% in developed markets and 10% in emerging markets). Implant units increased by 7% over the previous fiscal year.
  • The underlying net profit increased by 54% to $237 million, falling within the $225-$245 million range.
  • The underlying net profit margin of 16 percent was higher than the 11 percent margin achieved in FY20, but it fell short of COH’s longerterm target of 18 percent.
  • Statutory NPAT of $327 million (includes $59 million in patent litigationrelated tax and other benefits and $31 million in aftertax innovation fund gains).
  • The Board declared a final dividend of $1.40 per share, bringing full-year dividends to $2.55 per share, an increase of +59 percent, and a payout ratio of 71 percent of underlying net profit, in line with COH’s target payout of 70 percent.
  • COH’s balance sheet position persists, with net cash of $564.6 million at year end, up from $457 million in FY20.

Company Profile 

Cochlear Ltd (COH) researches, develops and markets cochlear implant systems for hearing impaired people. COH’s hearing implant systems include Nucleus and Baha and are sold globally. COH has direct operations in 20 countries and 2,800 employees.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

IRE has agreed to grant EQT for exclusive due diligence

Investment Thesis 

  • Since 24th February 2021 IRESS’s share price appreciated and traded on less attractive trading multiples and valuations.
  • No Doubt in quality of IRE’s quality with strong Team Management and its upside trade captured share price and trading multiples and hence its trading range bound.
  • Growing superannuation/pension resources bodes well for IRE’s clients, which bodes well for IRE’s product demand.
  • Financial market participants in Australia, United Kingdom and South Africa used use product of IRE widely. In the ANZ Wealth Management market for example, the expanding dynamic of practise self-licensing, strong client retention and increased demand for integrated solutions are major revenue drivers. More than 90% of revenue is recurring.
  • Strong momentum in ANZ Wealth Management’s core growth markets, including as South Africa and the United Kingdom.
  • The introduction of a new product provides prospects for expansion.
  • A strong financial position and a qualified management team.

Key Risks 

  • Subscriptions are down due to dwindling demand from the sell-side and buy-side, as well as financial planners.
  • Competitive platforms/offers (new disruptive technology); competition’s better features and innovation.
  • Risks associated with the system, technology, and software.
  • Clients and their requirements are being impacted by regulatory and structural developments in the financial sector.
  • Deterioration in the equity and debt markets, which could have an adverse effect on terminal demand.
  • The company’s Canadian sector continues to deteriorate.

Key Highlight 2020

  • IRESS’s Revenue was up +1 to $298.7 million on a pro forma basis, as recurring sales now accounts for 90% of overall revenue.
  • IRESS’s Pro forma segment profit of $77.2 million and pro forma EPS of 14.2 cents were up 3% and 6%, respectively, and were in line with full-year guidance; driven by growth in Trading and Market Data, a full-year contribution from OneVue, and good progress with new client implementations across Super, Private Wealth, and in the UK, offset by expected revenue declines in the Australian financial services sector.
  • The cash conversion rate was 90%. (improved from 86 percent in FY20). The Pro forma ROIC was kept at 9% by IRE.
  • IRESS Board Declared Interim Dividend at 16cps, 80% franked.

Company Profile 

Iress is an Australian financial software provider that specialises in the financial markets and wealth management sectors. Its mature financial markets business comprises around 25% of group EBITDA and has dominated the Australian market for around 20 years because of its leading order management platform. The wealth management software business comprises around a third of group EBITDA, and is the main contributor of group earnings growth, with superannuation and enterprise lending software comprising the remainder.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Fixed Income Fixed Income

Good addition for diversification especially for investors looking to gain ESG exposure

taking into account a variety of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. The Fund seeks to provide such a total return approach, offering duration exposure at suitable points in the cycle, as well as defensive positioning in a soaring rate environment, and invests solely in domestic assets, avoiding the importation of global risks (e.g. currency) and offering a different risk profile.

Philosophy of Investing

Bond markets, diverge from fundamental fair value due to a variety of factors such as central bank/government activity, fund flows, and investor positioning. Top down analysis is critical for identifying opportunities to exploit resulting inefficiencies in fixed income markets, while individual stock selection plays a secondary role in adding value for high grade bond markets such as Australia.

Investment Process

The diagram below best summarises Altus’ investment process. The Scenario – based forecasting and building a case for the Best Case, Central Case, and Worst Case is, the most important component of the investment process. By creating a well-thought-out and researched narrative for each case, the investment team is able to answer important questions and describe the macroeconomic landscape. . Generally agree with their current position in each case and the analysis that supports it. Not necessarily agree with their point of view, we do value the analysis and the manner in which the narrative was presented.

Source: Altius Asset Management 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

HT&E Limited (ASX: HT1)

  • Additional cost savings, notably a large reduction in corporate overhead expenditures.
  • The ATO and HT1 are anticipated to reach an agreement in the near future.
  • Changes in media ownership rules could lead to more corporate activity. Upside to the valuation of Soprano (25% interest) 
  • Initiatives for capital management that are still in progress.
  • A solid financial statement.

Key Risks

  • Decline in advertising dollars (radio and outdoor), particularly if Australia’s retail industry is under stress.
  • The structure of radio is being disrupted.
  • Increased tender competition from large players.
  • With worldwide expansion, there is a danger of poor execution.
  • The tax liabilities of the Australian Taxation Office materialize at a higher level than expected by the market.
  • Hong Kong could detract from the group’s performance (Corona virus or protests escalate).
  • Lockdowns relating to Covid-19 are being reintroduced around the country.

1H CY21 group results 

HT1 had a great first half of the year, owing to a solid market recovery. Core revenue increased by 18.2 percent to $109.9 million, underlying EBITDA increased by 55.9% to $30.4 million, underlying EBIT increased by 139.5 percent to $23.7 million, and NPAT increased by 352.8 percent to $16.3 million. On a like-for-like basis, group sales increased by 21%, owing to higher consumer confidence and advertising spend in Australia and Hong Kong. Higher cost of sales (ongoing investment in digital audio capability) and the resumption of marketing and certain discretionary spending that were deferred to the pandemic in the pcp drove up operating costs (up +9% vs pcp, or up +12% on a similar basis). The Board reinstated the dividend and announced a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5cps vs. zero in the PCP due to strengthening market circumstances.

Company Description  

HT&E Limited (HT1) is a media and entertainment company with operations in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. The Company operates the following key segments: (1) Australian Radio Network (ARN) – metropolitan radio networks including KIIS Network, The Edge96.One and Mix106.3 Canberra; (2) Hong KongOutdoor (Cody) – Billboard, transit and other outdoor advertising in Hong Kong, with over 300 outdoor advertising panels and in-bus multimedia advertising across 1,200 buses; and (3) Digital Investments – digital assets including iHeartRadio, Emotive and Conversant Media.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Continued Spending on the Home Improves Profitability at Wide-Moat Home Depot

 to deliver more than $140 billion in revenue in 2021. It continues to benefit from a healthy level of housing turnover along with improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating because of its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying our margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. 

Home Depot should continue to capture top-line growth beyond 2021, bolstered by aging housing stock and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for top-line growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (most recently bolstered by the acquisition of HD Supply). Expansion of newer (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) and existing (such as appliances) categories could also drive demand.

The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 13.8% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric reaching above 15% sustainably over the next decade.

Bulls Say

  • Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should improve productivity and increase domestic share in a stable housing market, increasing sales and margins.
  • The company has returned $56 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years–more than 15% of its market cap. It has consistently increased its dividend and used excess cash to repurchase shares.
  • The addressable pro market is around $55 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up around 10% share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Financial Strength

Home Depot raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. This led Home Depot to end 2020 with a total long-term debt load of more than $35 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 0.92.Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and we expect the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. 

Company Profile

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating nearly 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.