Investment Thesis
- High quality fundamentals but trades on fair value considering trading multiples, valuations and dividend yield.
- High quality assets, business model and management team.
- Leading market positions with key sites in higher population growth areas.
- Positively leveraged to the growth in population over time.
- Increasing digitisation to remove more costs and increase the efficiency of the supply chain.
- Key leading indicators (such as basket size / items per basket) are improving for the core Australian Food segment.
- Transaction growth and customer metrics are showing improving trends.
- Capital management post Endeavour transaction.
Key Risks
- Further margin pressure in the Food & Petrol business.
- Increasing competition in retail and changing consumer preference and consumption trends
- Deterioration in balance sheet metrics due to earnings decline.
- Adverse movements in AUD/USD (international sourcing).
Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:
- Group sales of $60,849m, up +9.2% and +10.5% in 2H22. WOW saw strong 2H22 sales growth improved for all segments except NZ Food, which was impacted by Covid-related disruptions to availability and a market slowdown
- Group gross margin was up +35 bps due to an increase in Australian Food of 74 bps offsetting a BIG W decline of 28 bps.
- Group CODB increased 89 bps, impacted by supply chain and team availability issues impacting efficiency in stores and DCs and the impact of BIG W’s sales decline in 1H22 due to store closures.
- EBIT of $2,690m, declined -2.7%, but made a strong recovery in 2H22, up +8.1%, driven by an +9.7% increase in 2H22 Australian Food EBIT.
- NPAT of $1,514m, was up +0.7%.
- The Board declared a final dividend of 53cps, down -3.6% (or excluding Endeavour Group, 53cps, up +3.9%). This brings FY22 dividend per share to 92cps, up +1.1%.
Company Description
Woolworths Limited (WOW) operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia. Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales foods and offers petrol retailing. The company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.
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