Categories
Dividend Stocks

WOW saw strong 2H22 sales growth improved for all segments except NZ Food, which was impacted by Covid-related disruptions

Investment Thesis

  • High quality fundamentals but trades on fair value considering trading multiples, valuations and dividend yield. 
  • High quality assets, business model and management team. 
  • Leading market positions with key sites in higher population growth areas. 
  • Positively leveraged to the growth in population over time. 
  • Increasing digitisation to remove more costs and increase the efficiency of the supply chain. 
  • Key leading indicators (such as basket size / items per basket) are improving for the core Australian Food segment. 
  • Transaction growth and customer metrics are showing improving trends. 
  • Capital management post Endeavour transaction. 

Key Risks

  • Further margin pressure in the Food & Petrol business. 
  • Increasing competition in retail and changing consumer preference and consumption trends 
  • Deterioration in balance sheet metrics due to earnings decline. 
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD (international sourcing). 

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Group sales of $60,849m, up +9.2% and +10.5% in 2H22. WOW saw strong 2H22 sales growth improved for all segments except NZ Food, which was impacted by Covid-related disruptions to availability and a market slowdown
  • Group gross margin was up +35 bps due to an increase in Australian Food of 74 bps offsetting a BIG W decline of 28 bps.
  • Group CODB increased 89 bps, impacted by supply chain and team availability issues impacting efficiency in stores and DCs and the impact of BIG W’s sales decline in 1H22 due to store closures. 
  • EBIT of $2,690m, declined -2.7%, but made a strong recovery in 2H22, up +8.1%, driven by an +9.7% increase in 2H22 Australian Food EBIT. 
  • NPAT of $1,514m, was up +0.7%.
  • The Board declared a final dividend of 53cps, down -3.6% (or excluding Endeavour Group, 53cps, up +3.9%). This brings FY22 dividend per share to 92cps, up +1.1%. 

Company Description

Woolworths Limited (WOW) operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia. Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales foods and offers petrol retailing. The company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Winnebago, which reinvented itself under CEO Mike Happe with the November 2016 acquisition of high end towable maker Grand Design, sees itself as a leading outdoor lifestyle firm

Business Strategy & Outlook

Winnebago, which reinvented itself under CEO Mike Happe with the November 2016 acquisition of high-end towable maker Grand Design, sees itself as a leading outdoor lifestyle firm. It now has a marine segment with Chris-Craft and Barletta. Towables is an area the company had long wanted to grow in but had remained very small since acquiring Sunnybrook in 2011. Winnebago’s North American towables share is in the teens, up from under 2% before Grand Design, so there’s a long growth runway if it can keep chipping into Thor’s and Forest River’s roughly 80% combined share. In fiscal 2022, towables were about 52% of total revenue compared with just 9% in fiscal 2016. Marine was about 9% of fiscal 2022 sales and Barletta is a top five pontoon brand. Management wants non-RV revenue of 15% by fiscal 2025. High brand equity enabling scale and barriers to entry provide Winnebago with a narrow economic moat.

Leadership sees opportunities to grow with products in new segments such as off-roading and lower price points (but not the cheapest in a segment). Models are no longer cloned, which should help dealer profitability, and products will be positioned around a good, better, best framework. A unit is now not manufactured until it has an order, which should mean little discounting. Acquisitions in the $860 billion-plus outdoor activity market also play a role, but only for high-end brands such as Grand Design, Chris-Craft, Newmar, and Barletta. Industry data shows that 11.2 million U.S. households owned a RV in 2020, up from 6.9 million in 2001. 60% of first-time campers are under age 40 and have a household income of $100,000 or more versus 29% for all campers. 82% of new campers since the pandemic have children and Hispanic and Black consumers were 25% of all campers in 2020, up from 8% in 2012, so Winnebago has plenty of runway with a wide consumer base if it executes right. Winnebago’s brand equity gives it a good shot at capitalizing on these trends. The pandemic-induced outdoor lifestyle boom has also given the company a $2.3 billion RV backlog at year-end fiscal 2022, up from about $400 million at the end of fiscal 2019.

Financial Strengths

The balance sheet lacks the massive legacy costs that burden some other manufacturers because Winnebago’s workforce is not unionized. Winnebago’s untapped $350 million credit line, good through July 15, 2027, coupled with about $282 million of cash should get the firm through nearly any challenge. A 9% increase in the dividend in summer 2020, despite the pandemic at the time, is a good sign of financial health, as is a 50% increase announced in August 2021 and another 50% increase in August 2022. Winnebago’s balance sheet had been free of long-term debt since the mid-1990s.  Having no debt limits the downside to equity investors, but new leadership was exploring whether to add debt and did so in fiscal 2017 with $353 million to fund part of the consideration to buy Grand Design. Debt as of Aug. 27 totaled $600 million, before a $45.3 million convertible note discount and $8.9 million of debt issuance costs, and consists of $300 million of 1.5% April 2025 unsecured senior convertible notes issued to buy Newmar (along with the company issuing 2 million shares of stock to the seller at $46.29) and $300 million of 2028 6.25% senior secured bonds. The convertible notes are not callable, can be converted any time starting Oct. 1, 2024, and have a conversion price of $63.73 per share. The target range for net debt/adjusted EBITDA is 0.9-1.5 times, but management is willing to leverage up to 3.0 times to make an acquisition. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 0.5 times at the end of fiscal 2022. Winnebago has no significant pension obligations and stopped paying retiree healthcare in 2017.  Winnebago is to be comfortably free cash flow positive in the long term. It is to repurchase its shares only when they’re cheap and buybacks be done at a minimum to offset dilution from stock option issuance. Acquisitions and other growth investments are a priority over buybacks but buyback spending was $214.3 million in fiscal 2022.

Bulls Say

  • The Grand Design acquisition materially raised Winnebago’s operating margin, and Newmar could do the same. 
  • The company’s strong balance sheet provides financial strength and flexibility to withstand cyclical downturns. 
  • Because RV consumers are relatively affluent, rising gas prices would probably not hinder a consumer’s ability to purchase a motorhome. A 2016 study by travel consulting firm PKF Consulting found that for a family of four, gas prices would have to exceed $12 a gallon to make RV travel more expensive than other forms of travel.

Company Description

Winnebago Industries manufactures Class A, B, and C motor homes along with towables, customized specialty vehicles, boats, and parts. Headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, Winnebago has been producing recreational vehicles since 1958. Revenue was about $5 billion in fiscal 2022. Winnebago expanded into towables in 2011 with the acquisition of SunnyBrook and acquired Grand Design in November 2016. Towables made up 83% of the firm’s RV unit volume, up from 31% in fiscal 2016. The company’s total RV unit volume was 71,922 in fiscal 2022. Winnebago expanded into boating in 2018 with the purchase of ChrisCraft, bought premium motor home maker Newmar in November 2019, and bought Barletta pontoon boats in August 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Gilden has approximately 80% market share in printwear basics and acquisitions have made it a stronger player in fashion basics

Business Strategy & Outlook

Gildan Activewear lacks a moat, which has put it in a difficult position as it navigates disruption from the coronavirus pandemic and inflation. While Gildan began a private-label men’s underwear contract with wide-moat Walmart in 2019, this product has largely replaced Gildan-branded underwear and only partially offsets losses in other areas. Narrow-moat Hanesbrands and Fruit of the Loom have stronger innerwear brands, allowing them to hold significant shelf space at Walmart, no-moat Target, and other critical retailers. Mass retailers reportedly account for more than 60% of total underwear sales in the United States. Gildan has purchased a few notable brands, including Gold Toe (socks) and American Apparel (inexpensive fashion/printwear), having invested about $500 million in acquisitions since 2014. The company, though, no longer reports branded apparel as a separate business segment and recorded an impairment to goodwill related to its hosiery in 2020. It acknowledges market share losses to private-label brands, especially in socks, and its total yearly hosiery and underwear sales declined 21% between 2017 and 2021. 

There is a possibility that Gildan may end some of its hosiery programs to concentrate on its private-label business. Gildan’s success in printwear to its investments in the category and its cost-efficient production model. The firm has approximately 80% market share in printwear basics and acquisitions have made it a stronger player in fashion basics. Gildan’s printwear benefits from its strong supply chain as most of its clothing is manufactured in company-owned factories in low-wage, developing countries. Moreover, Gildan, unlike rivals, owns yarn-spinning factories in the U.S. that may improve its efficiency. In 2021, it bolstered its U.S. production with the acquisition of Frontier Yarns for about $170 million. Gildan’s investments have lowered its production costs, a permanent cost advantage hasn’t been created as its processes can be replicated by competitors and cost savings may be lost to lower prices.

Financial Strengths

In a move, Gildan cut spending to conserve cash during the COVID-19 crisis in 2020. Specifically, the firm lowered selling, general, and administrative expenses by 20%, suspended its dividends and share repurchases, and reduced its capital expenditures. However, as its results and finances improved in 2021, it stepped up cash usage, with capital expenditures of $127 million (4.4% of sales), about $250 million in share repurchases, and $90 million in dividend payments. Capital expenditures will rise to 6%-7% of sales over the next three years due to building projects and efficiency investments. Over the next decade, annual average repurchases of about $330 million and an annual average dividend payout ratio of 23%. Gildan’s total liquidity is solid. As of the end of September 2022, the firm had $920 million in debt, but also $69 million in cash and $680 million available on its revolving credit facility. Gildan will generate about $227 million in free cash flow to equity in 2022, more than enough to cover its obligations. Gildan renegotiated its debt covenants in June 2020 to avoid a possible violation. The firm closed 2019 with net debt/adjusted EBITDA of about 1.4 times, but this increased to 3.0 times at the end of 2020 because of the increased debt and a 70% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the year. However, its net debt/adjusted EBITDA fell to 0.6 times at the end of 2021 on debt reduction and higher EBITDA.

Bulls Say

  • Gildan has dominant market share in printwear basics and has invested in a low-cost production and distribution process to maintain its position. This business is recovering from the severe impact of the pandemic.
  • In 2019, Gildan won a contract with Walmart to supply men’s underwear for its in-house brand called George. While a blow to its branded business, the deal increased Gildan’s shelf space in the category.
  • Gildan’s Back to Basics efficiency strategy should allow it to hold operating margins around 18%, an improvement from prepandemic levels of about 15%.

Company Description

Gildan is a vertically-integrated designer and manufacturer of basic apparel, including T-shirts, underwear, socks, and hosiery. Its primary market is the sale of blank T-shirts and other apparel to wholesalers, major clothing brands, and printers (printwear). Gildan also sells branded clothing through retail and direct-to-consumer channels. Brands include Gildan, American Apparel, Comfort Colors, and Gold Toe. Gildan produces most of its clothing at factories in Latin America. The Montreal-based company generates most of its sales in the U.S. and was incorporated in 1984.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings

Business Strategy & Outlook

Essex Property Trust is the most geographically focused multifamily real estate investment trust, with a portfolio of high-quality multifamily buildings positioned entirely on the West Coast: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle. These markets should experience strong, long-term demographic trends like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger populations, which allows the company to maintain high occupancies and drive rent growth above the U.S. average. The company’s markets to see job and income growth above national average, which should continue to support above average net operating income growth. The company’s solid internal operating outlook should be supplemented by its small but opportunistic development pipeline to create value for shareholders. 

While Essex’s portfolio focuses on markets with strong demand drivers, the pandemic caused many millennials to consider moving to the suburbs, either into suburban apartments or their own single-family homes, though demand for new urban apartments has remained relatively resilient. Additionally, the concentration of the Essex portfolio in tech-oriented West Coast markets leaves it exposed to the risk of a downturn and a resulting job/ income loss in the technology sector. High inflation has recently driven revenue significantly higher as apartment leases are generally only a year long, allowing Essex to push rate growth that has matched inflation. While revenue growth is to decelerate as inflation growth is brought under control and also expect a period of higher than normal expense growth, the company’s funds from operations per share are already above prepandemic levels and to continue same-store growth to push FFO even higher.

Financial Strengths

Essex Property Trust is in good financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective. The company seeks to maintain a solid but flexible balance sheet, which will serve stakeholders well. Near-term debt maturities should be manageable through a combination of refinancing, asset sales, and free cash flow. The company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition and development opportunities arise. The 2023 net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest to be roughly 4.7 and 6.4 times, respectively, both of which are within the company’s targeted range and are, reasonable levels. As a REIT, Essex is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cash flow from operating activities, providing Essex plenty of flexibility to make capital allocation and investment decisions. The company’s credit rating is to remain stable through steady rental income growth in its existing portfolio and the stabilization of the company’s current developments, which should allow the company to continue to access the debt market in combination with equity issuance and asset dispositions to fund its debt maturities, acquisitions, and new development activity.

Bulls Say

  • Essex’s portfolio benefits from strong job and income growth and limited supply growth in its attractive West Coast markets. 
  • Essex’s high-quality assets should see relatively consistent long-term demand from high-income earners and will likely see just a small hit to fundamentals during the current pandemic, as most residents have not experienced job losses. 
  • Supply growth should be kept in check as rising construction costs and tighter lending standards should reduce the number of projects that are started.

Company Description

Essex Property Trust owns a portfolio of 253 apartment communities with over 62,000 units and is developing three additional properties with 571 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties on the West Coast in the urban and suburban submarkets of Southern California, Northern California, and Seattle.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.