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Perpetual Smaller Companies Fund

Our Opinion

Highly competent PM

The PM, Jack Collopy has extensive experience and track record as an analyst and fund manager, with 21 years industry experience and 19 years with Perpetual. Mr. Collopy is supported by the wider Perpetual team of analysts, including deputy PM of the Fund Alex Patten. 

Constant rotation/changes at the PM level are a disappointment

 The constant rotation/changes at the PM or co-PM level in the last three years, for the Fund is a disappointment – we note that Mr. Collopy had transition to oversee other Perpetual strategies, leaving then co-PM Mr. Nathan Hughes to oversee the Fund. Mr. Hughes has since transitioned to become PM of Perpetual’s Ethical SRI Fund as of April 2019 (taking over from Mr. Collopy for that Fund). The Fund is now managed by Mr. Collopy with Alex Patten as deputy PM, who we think highly of, and have strong credentials and long investment experience. However, a period of stability at the PM level would give us more comfort before upgrading our recommendation.

Well-resourced investment team

Whilst the team managing the Fund is on the smaller end (relative to peers), the PMs of the Fund is able to tap into the expertise of the wider Perpetual investment team. The investment team is headed by Paul Skamvougeras, Head of Equities, and comprises a large and experienced team of Portfolio Managers (5), head of proprietary research (1), Deputy Portfolio Managers (3), Analysts (6) and the Responsible Investments team (2). Each Portfolio Manager is supported by the team of analysts and back-up procedures are shared throughout the large team. Jack Collopy is the Portfolio Manager of the Perpetual Smaller Companies Fund, with Alex Patten the Deputy Portfolio Manager. As such, ultimate investment responsibility rests with them. Mr. Collopy and Mr. Patten report directly to Paul Skamvougeras.

Solid investment process backed by bottom-up research 

The investment process is a bottom-up selection approach focused on quality and valuation, driven by research and engagement with management, which we think is particularly valuable in valuing smaller companies.

Downside Risks

Australian economic conditions deteriorate. 

The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation.

Departure of key PM Jack Collopy or Deputy PM Alex Patten.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) Reports Solid Q2 Results and Announces CEO Succession by John Forrester

Fee revenue has fully recovered to beyond prepandemic levels, as the company reported second-quarter fee revenue of $1.6 billion, a 34% increase year over year and a 3% increase from the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA also came in strong for the current quarter at $220 million, 26% higher than the second quarter of 2019. 

Adjusted EBITDA margin calculated on a fee-revenue basis was 13.5%, significantly higher than the 10.2% reported in 2020 and 11.1% in 2019. The adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion reflect the impact of strong brokerage activity and permanent cost reduction actions, which management believes amounted to around $30 million in the current quarter and will reach $125 million in annualized permanent cost savings.

The company announced that John Forrester, who is the current global president, will succeed Brett White as the new CEO of the company effective Jan. 1, 2022. White will remain executive chairman after the transition and continue to lead strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and succession planning, alongside Forrester. 

The brokerage segment of the company displayed excellent recovery in the current quarter compared with the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic suppressed business around the world. Capital markets revenue more than doubled in the current quarter on a year-over-year basis and was 17% higher than the second quarter of 2019. Leasing revenue was 67% higher in the current quarter compared with last year, but it remains 9% below 2019 levels.

Management Anticipates Revenue Growth

The valuation and other segment remains a bright spot for the company as fee revenue came in 16% higher in the quarter on a year-over year basis. The property, facility, and project management segment, which has been resilient throughout the pandemic, reported a 7% year-over-year increase in fee revenue. Management anticipates revenue growth in midteens for the full year as brokerage revenue growth is expected to be up more than 30% and the nonbrokerage segment is expected to grow in midsingle digits. Management said it expects adjusted EBITDA margins for the full year to be well above 2020 levels and will approach 2019 levels, which equates to an adjusted EBITDA range of $660 million-$710 million for full-year 2021.

Company Profile 

Cushman & Wakefield is the third largest commercial real estate services firm in the world with a global headquarters in Chicago. The firm provides various real estate-related services to owners, occupiers and investors. These include brokerage services for leasing and capital markets sales, as well as advisory services such valuation, project management, and facilities management.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IPO Watch

True Balance plans to break even by the end of the year and list by 2024.

True Balance is seeing a lot of interest in its small loans, which has resulted in a 3x increase in revenue for the platform

True Balance’s revenue rose by 3X, and by November-December this calendar year, the company expects to be EBITDA favorable and break-even, he said. True Balance India is a completely owned subsidiary of Korea’s Balancehero Co Ltd, which owns and runs the ‘True Balance’ lending platform.

True Balance is an RBI-approved online service that arranges loans through True Credits, an RBI-licensed NBFC. Balancehero was launched in Korea in 2014 by Cheolwon ‘Charlie’ Lee and introduced the True Balance app in India in 2016 to help consumers handle their mobile recharge, bill payments, and balance check more conveniently. True Credits acquired their licence from the RBI in 2019, after which True Balance began financing.

Lee said the company is ready to listing in India and overseas when questioned about IPO ambitions. In 2021, the company is planning to treble its sales, which was USD 10 million in 2020. True Balance, which employs over 200 people, the majority of whom are located in India, is also trying to expand its workforce.

Lee found that the company has grown by 30 to 50 percent month over month, with the goal of concentrating on non-online payment and non-credit score customers.

Company profile

Develop a culture within the organisation that supports freedom of expression, fair opportunity for progress, open channels of communication, and complete transparency, all of which are guided by our 5 Core Values. Employees are at the centre of every decision, and this is what propels forwards.

Employees at Balancehero India are exposed to a neo-South Korean culture with simpler organisational structures, open office spaces, and a vibrant atmosphere that encourages everyone to contribute to the company’s ultimate goals. As a way of showing thanks where it is due, keep employees engaged and motivated through feedback and monthly prizes.

Souce: Economictimes

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Novartis AG(NOVN)

  • Recent and upcoming divestments will streamline the business and provide increased focus to deliver shareholder returns. 
  • Recent product launches indicate solid sales momentum, with near-term product pipeline potentially providing further upside.  
  • Selective bolt-on acquisitions to supplement organic growth. 
  • Operating efficiency focuses to further support earnings growth.
  • As the new management team improves Company culture, investors are less likely to ascribe a discount to the stock based on legacy issues.  

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to investment thesis:

  • Recently launched products fail to deliver sales growth as expected by the market.
  • New product pipeline fails to yield “blockbuster” products or delays in bringing key products to market.
  • R&D programs do not yield new long-term ideas.
  • Increased competition (pricing pressure & innovative products) from new entrants or existing players.  
  • Value destructive M&A.
  • Regulatory / litigation risks.

Management’s outlook

Assuming a continuation of the return to normal global healthcare systems including prescription dynamics particularly oncology in 2H21, and that no Gilenya and Sandostatin LAR generics enter in FY21 in the US, management anticipates (in cc); (1) FY21 net sales to grow low to mid-single digit, with Innovative Medicines to grow mid-single digit and Sandoz to decline low to mid-single digit, and core operating income to grow mid-single digit (ahead of sales), with Innovative Medicines growing mid to high-single digit, ahead of sales, and Sandoz declining low to mid-teens. (2) 2H21 net sales growth to accelerate from 3% in 1H21 to mid-single digit, as the Company continues to return to normal prescribing behaviors, as well as further Sandoz stabilization, and core operating income growth to be high-single digit, driven by higher sales and ongoing productivity programs partly offset by increased investments in growth drivers and pipeline.

Company Description  

Novartis AG (NOVN) is an innovative healthcare company headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, with approximately 125,000 employees. In 2017, the Group reported net sales of US$49.1bn, while R&D throughout the Group amounted to approximately US$9.0bn. The Company sells its products in approximately 155 countries. The group has two segments which it reports on: (1) Innovative Medicines (Oncology / Pharmaceutical), and (2) Sandoz generics division.    

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Grainger recovered its stronger sales growth but margin constraints have emerged in 2021.

investment stockbroker risk analysis using multiple devices. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

The growing prevalence of e-commerce has intensified the competitive environment because of more price transparency and increased access to a wider array of vendors, including Amazon Business, which has entered the mix. 

As consumer preference began to shift to online and electronic purchasing platforms, Grainger invested heavily in improving its e-commerce capabilities and restructuring its distribution network. It is the now the 11th-largest e-retailer in North America; it shrank its U.S. branch network from 423 in 2010 to 287 in 2020 and added distribution centers in the U.S. to support the growing amount of direct-to-customer shipments. 

To address this problem, Grainger rolled out a more competitive pricing model. Lower prices hurt gross profit margins, but volume gains, especially among higher-margin spot buys and midsize accounts, have offset price reductions and helped the company meet its 12%-13% operating margin goal by 2019 (12.1% adjusted operating margin in 2019). Grainger continues to expand its endless assortment strategy, but we’re skeptical of the margin expansion opportunity for this business, given strong competition in the space from the likes of Amazon Business and others. 

Financial Strength

As of the second quarter of 2021, Grainger had $2.4 billion of debt outstanding, which net of $547 million of cash represents a leverage ratio of less than 1.1 times our 2021 EBITDA estimate. Grainger’s outstanding debt consists of $500 million of 1.85% senior notes due in 2025, $1 billion of 4.6% senior notes due in 2045, $400 million of 3.75% senior notes due in 2046, and $400 million of 4.2% senior notes due in 2047. Grainger has a proven ability to generate free cash flow throughout the cycle. Indeed, it has generated positive free cash flow every year since 2000, and its free cash flow generation tends to spike during downturns because of reduced working capital requirements. Given the firm’s reasonable use of leverage and consistent free cash flow generation, we believe Grainger’s financial health is satisfactory.

Bull Says

  • With a more sensible, transparent pricing model, Grainger should continue to gain share with existing customers and win higher-margin midsize accounts.
  • As a large distributor with national scale and inventory management services, Grainger is well positioned to take share from smaller regional and local distributors as customers consolidate their MRO spending.
  • Grainger operates a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy; it has increased its dividend for 49 consecutive years and has reduced its diluted average share count by over 40% over the last 20 years.

Company Profile

W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW) distributes 1.5 million of maintenance, repair, and operating products that are sourced from over 4,500 suppliers. The company serves approximately 5 million customers through its online and electronic purchasing platforms, vending machines, catalog distribution, and network of over 400 global branches. In recent years, Grainger has invested in its e-commerce capabilities and is the 11th-largest e-retailer in North America.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

NRG Energy Continues Its Move towards Consumer Services Business Model

The company remains on track to meet our full-year outlook, which includes an estimated $1 billion gross negative impact from winter storm Uri in mid-February, in line with management’s guidance. Our fair value estimate includes a $2 per share reduction to reflect storm losses partially offset by near-term cost-savings benefits and long-term benefits from changes in Texas energy markets that should favor NRG.

After closing the $3.625 billion Direct Energy deal in January and several moves to shrink its power generation fleet, NRG is on a path toward becoming primarily a retail energy services company rather than an independent power producer. It already ranks among the largest retail electricity and natural gas companies in the U.S. and plans to expand its customer base in areas outside its core Texas market. Although this strategic shift changes NRG’s fundamental value drivers, we still don’t think it can establish a long-term competitive advantage that would warrant an economic moat.

Management reaffirmed its $2.4 billion-$2.6 billion EBITDA guidance excluding storm impacts for 2021, in line with our estimate. Management has pulled back substantially on its debt reduction plan and now targets $255 million of debt reduction this year, down from its pre-storm plan to retire $1.05 billion of debt this year. share buybacks and dividend growth will become top capital allocation options in 2022 as NRG pushes back its timeline for achieving investmentgrade credit ratings.

Company Profile 

NRG Energy is one of the largest retail energy providers in the U.S., with 7 million customers, including its 2021 acquisition of Direct Energy. It also is one of the largest U.S. independent power producers, with 22 gigawatts of nuclear, coal, gas, and oil power generation capacity primarily in Texas. Since 2018, NRG has divested its 47% stake in NRG Yield, among other renewable energy and conventional generation investments. NRG exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in December 2003.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Federal Realty Outperforms Our Expectations and Raises both 2021 and 2022 Guidance in Q2

 Re-leasing spreads continue to be strong despite the pandemic, seeing rents on leases signed during the quarter increase 7.5% with leases to new tenants up 10.2% over the prior rent. Second quarter rent collection improved to 94% compared with 90% in the first quarter and improved to 98% compared with 96% if rent abatement and rent deferral agreements are included. Improving rent collection drove same-store net operating income growth of 39.4% in the quarter, ahead of our 28.1% estimate in the second quarter. 

As a result, funds from operations came in at $1.41 for the quarter, above of our estimate of $1.25 in the quarter and well above the $0.77 figure reported in the second quarter of 2020 but still below the $1.60 level reported in the second quarter of 2019. The strong second-quarter results led to management significantly increasing its FFO guidance. Management raised its 2021 FFO guidance by $0.49 at the midpoint to a new range of $5.05-$5.15, which is slightly ahead of our current $5.02.

Additionally, management also raised their guidance for 2022 FFO by 25 cents at the midpoint to a new range of $5.30-$5.50. While the increase is encouraging, the updated range is still below our current $5.96 estimate for 2022. However, REITs rarely give FFO guidance for the next year this far out and, given the high level of uncertainty that still exists in retail, we suspect that management is being conservative with its 2022 estimates.

Company Profile 

Federal Realty Investment Trust is a shopping center-focused retail real estate investment trust that owns high-quality properties in eight of the largest metropolitan markets. Its portfolio includes an interest in 101 properties, which includes 23.4 million square feet of retail space and over 2,600 multifamily units. Federal’s retail portfolio includes grocery-anchored centers, superregional centers, power centers, and mixed-use urban centers. Federal Realty has focused on owning assets in highly desirable areas with significant growth, and as a result, the average population density and average median household income are higher for its portfolio than for any other retail REIT.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) Continue To Be Expensive, But There Are Still Pockets Of Value To Be Found.

 Revenue, profit, and market capitalization all grew significantly, but are expected to rely more heavily on lithium production going forward. Management has significantly improved disclosure, earnings streams have been materially diversified and the investment strategy has consistently generated high returns on invested capital. We expect a well-supplied lithium market in the longer term, coupled with weaker demand growth for steel, particularly from China, to drive lower prices and reduce the pool of available contracting work. Despite this, we think Mineral Resources can drive EPS growth on volume.

Key Investment Considerations

Management has significantly improved disclosure, earnings streams have been materially diversified and the investment strategy has consistently generated high returns on invested capital. We think the business model is demonstrably sustainable, centering on Mining Services around Australian bulk commodities. Mineral Resources will selectively own and develop its own mining operations, though with the aim of subsequent sell-down while retaining core processing and screening rights.

Financial Strength

Mineral Resources is in strong financial health. Albemarle’s acquisition of a 60% stake in Wodgina lithium instantly expunged net debt in first-half fiscal 2020.From a net debt position of AUD 872 million at end June 2019. Lithium project construction expenditure was at the core of the cash drain. The current circumstance is a return to the usual territory for Mineral Resources, which operated in a position of little to no net debt for at least the eight years to fiscal 2018; a sensible position for a company operating in the volatile mining services space. Mineral Resources had faced the key question of what it should do with its cash, with a shrinking pool of growth and investment opportunities in a lower iron ore price environment. 

Bull Says

  • Mineral Resources grew strongly since listing in 2006. The chairman and managing director have been with the business for over a decade and have meaningful shareholdings.
  • Australian iron ore is mainly purchased by Chinese steel producers, meaning Mineral Resources offers leveraged exposure to Chinese economic growth.
  • Mineral Resources has a recurring base of revenue and earnings from processing infrastructure.
  • Mineral Resources’ balance sheet is very strong with net cash. This has opened up the opportunity for lithium investments selling into highly receptive markets.

Company Profile

Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX: MIN) listed on the ASX in 2006 following the merger of three mining services businesses. The subsidiary companies were previously owned by managing director Chris Ellison, who remains a large shareholder despite selling down. Operations include iron ore and lithium mining, iron ore crushing and screening services for third parties, and engineering and construction for mining companies. Mining and contracting activity is focused in Western Australia.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.