Due to the pandemic, all three of Tapestry’s brands suffered sales and operating profit declines in parts of the last two fiscal years, but results have been improving rapidly as it implements its three-year Acceleration Program strategy to cut costs and improve margins.
Coach struggled with excessive distribution and competition in the past, but we think Tapestry has turned it around through store closures, restrictions on discounting, and increased e-commerce, which has grown by triple-digit percentages during the pandemic. Further, we expect growth in complementary categories like footwear and fashion. China to be a key growth region for Coach as Chinese consumers will compose 46% of the worldwide luxury goods spending in 2025, according to Bain & Company. We forecast Coach’s greater China sales will increase to nearly $1.5 billion in fiscal 2031 (24% of sales) from $931 million in fiscal 2021 (22% of sales).
The acquisitions of Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman don’t contribute to Tapestry’s moat. Spade was a natural fit for Coach as both generate most of their sales from Asia-sourced handbags. However, Spade merchandise is priced lower than Coach and lacks its international reach. Still, we think Spade can grow in both North America and Asia through store openings and new products, such as shoes (currently licensed).As for Stuart Weitzman, while its women’s shoes achieve luxury price points, we view it as a niche brand (less than $300 million in fiscal 2021 sales) with fashion risk. Stuart Weitzman is struggling so much that Tapestry recently wrote off all the goodwill and intangibles related to its purchase and is downsizing its store base.
Financial Strength
As of the end of June 2021, Tapestry was in a net cash position, with total debt of $1.6 billion and $2 billion in cash and equivalents. Some (33.5% as of the end of fiscal 2021) of the cash is held outside of the U.S. but may be repatriated. Tapestry’s earliest debt maturity occurs in 2022, when $400 million in 3.0% notes come due. Tapestry suspended share repurchases and dividends to maintain liquidity during the pandemic but has resumed both in fiscal 2022. We forecast the firm will generate more than $5.3 billion in free cash flow to equity over the next five years, most of which will be returned to shareholders. Tapestry has limited the amount of cash returned to shareholders since 2015 due to the acquisitions of Stuart Weitzman and Kate Spade and debt covenants. However, Tapestry approved a new $1.0 billion buyback program in May 2019, a clear signal it will resume significant buybacks. Further, we forecast Tapestry will pay out roughly 38% of earnings over the next 10 years as dividends. Finally, we expect Tapestry’s capital expenditures will be relatively high on store openings, remodels, and e-commerce investments.
Bulls Say
- Coach is one of the share leaders in the profitable categories of handbags and other leather goods. Coach bags achieve better pricing than many others, allowing for gross margins around 70%.
- Coach is a popular brand among Chinese consumers and has room for growth. Bain & Company estimates these consumers will compose 46% of worldwide luxury good spending in 2025, up from 33% in 2018.
- Tapestry unveiled a new strategic plan in August 2020 called the Acceleration Program to reduce operating expenses by about 10%, enhance e-commerce, and close low-performing stores.
Company Profile
Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman are the fashion and accessory brands that comprise Tapestry. The firm’s products are sold through about 1,400 company-operated stores, wholesale channels, and e-commerce in North America (62% of fiscal 2021 sales), Europe, Asia (33% of fiscal 2021 sales), and elsewhere. Coach (74% of fiscal 2021 sales) is best known for affordable luxury leather products. Kate Spade (21% of fiscal 2021 sales) is known for colorful patterns and graphics. Women’s handbags and accessories produced 70% of Tapestry’s sales in fiscal 2021. Stuart Weitzman, Tapestry’s smallest brand, generates nearly all (99%) of its revenue from women’s footwear.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Advisors on LPL’s platform serve approximately 4% of wealth management assets in the United States. Through its ClientWorks portal, the company offers a one-stop solution for advisors that incorporates billing, account analytics, research, trading, and relationship-management tools. LPL aims to offer services to all advisors regardless of business model.
Production retention, which measures the percentage of advisor-generated revenue maintained from the previous year, has recently been over 95%. Recently, LPL has been making moves to improve its value proposition to advisors, with the rollout of a new online portal and the purchase, and subsequent integration, of Advisory World. Acquisitions of advisor networks have also been a source of growth, with the 2017 acquisition of NPH for $325 million and the wealth management business of Waddell & Reed in 2021 for $300 million showing that LPL is willing and able to buy growth outright when it makes sense to do so.
Financial Strength
LPL’s financial strength is adequate. At the end of 2020, the company had $2.3 billion of long-term debt. With a debt/equity ratio of about 1.8 times, the company is fairly leveraged. The company also has about $1.9 billion of goodwill and intangibles on its balance sheet, so has no tangible equity. The bulk of its debt, about $1.4 billion, will come due in 2024, with the rest due the following year. With a debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of around 2.5 times, LPL should have sufficient cash to meet these financial obligations.LPL has paid a consistent $0.25 quarterly dividend since first-quarter 2015.
Our fair value estimate correlates to a price/forward earnings multiple of 22 times and an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 12.5 times. Positive adjustments to our fair value estimate include $6.50 from earnings since our previous valuation update, $20.50 from recent growth in client assets and higher projected growth in client assets, $10.50 from increasing the growth rate and assumed returns on capital after year 10 in our model, and $3.50 of miscellaneous adjustments.
Bulls Say’s
- LPL has been able to weather the storm of a changing industry, and expanding margins suggest that its business model remains intact.
- The company has been moving toward more recurring revenue, such as advisory fees and revenue from client cash balances, which the market may reward.
- LPL has the resources to recruit aggressively, and improvements in feedback receptiveness should help it maintain strong retention rates.
Company Profile
LPL Financial Holdings is an independent broker/dealer that provides a platform of proprietary technology, brokerage, and investment advisory services to financial advisors and institutions. The company also provides financial advisors licensed with insurance companies customized clearing services, advisory platforms, and technology solutions. LPL provides a range of services through its subsidiaries. Private Trust supplies trust administration, investment management oversight, and custodial services for estates and families; Independent Advisers Group offers investment advisory solutions to insurance companies; and LPL Insurance Associates operates as a brokerage general agency that offers life, long-term care, and disability insurance sales and services.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
According to the firm, MoPub generated $188 million in revenue in 2020 (5% of total revenue), which makes this sale equivalent to 5.3 times revenue. Twitter is trading at more than 7 times our 2022 revenue estimate, excluding MoPub.
Company’s Future Outlook
Twitter said it plans to focus more on providing advertising opportunities for direct response marketers in addition to small- and medium-sized businesses. We think that this deal was also partially driven by questions surrounding how Apple’s IDFA and user privacy policies will impact in-app advertising. However, Twitter had also stated that some of its app ad offerings were already integrated with Apple’s SKAdNetwork that helps track and measure ads. Without MoPub, we expect slightly lower top-line growth and less margin expansion, both of which will not have a material effect on our $58 fair value estimate for the firm.
Twitter’s initial investment in MoPub when it purchased the company in 2013 for only $350 million. However, cash received from this transaction likely will be offset by the $809.5 million charge that Twitter will recognize in the third quarter 2021 as the firm settled a case involving some of its investors who accused the firm of misleading them by providing lofty expectations of user count and engagement at an analyst day event in 2014. The event took place when Dick Costolo was at the helm at Twitter.
Company Profile
Twitter is an open distribution platform for and a conversational platform around short-form text (a maximum of 280 characters), image, and video content. Its users can create different social networks based on their interests, thereby creating an interest graph. Many prominent celebrities and public figures have Twitter accounts. Twitter generates revenue from advertising (90%) and licensing the user data that it compiles (10%).
Source: (Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
