the firm has attained that position less through acquisitions and more through organic growth. With very well-recognized creative agencies and sub-holding companies such as BBDO and DDB, we expect Omnicom to maintain its market position as it generates competitive organic growth, continues to make acquisitions, and increases focus on the faster-growing emerging markets and the overall digital ad markets.
Through various acquisitions, the firm has transitioned from traditional advertising toward becoming a complete solution provider with digital (including online video, social media, and mobile), along with other services such as public relations. Compared with its peers, Omnicom has been relatively quiet on the acquisition front since it ended merger talks with Public is in 2014. However, top-line growth has been in line with or above the other ad-holding firms.
Financial Strength
Omnicom reported mixed third-quarter results as revenue slightly missed the FactSet consensus estimates while the firm beat bottom-line expectations. With strong double digit organic revenue growth, the revenue miss was mainly due to Omnicom’s disposition of ICON in June. Solid organic growth of 11.5% and favorable foreign currency exchange rates were only partially offset by negative impact from agency divestitures (negative 5.9%). Management guided to 2021 full-year organic revenue growth of 9%, which is slightly below our 9.5% projection. Operating margin of 15.8% during the quarter was slightly higher than last year’s 15.6% due to top line growth and lower costs associated with less occupancy and lower travel expenses. The firm expects full-year 2021 operating margin above 15.1% compared with our 15.1% assumption.
Omnicom has a net debt of $210 million, with debt/EBITDA and interest coverage averaging 2.5 and 9, respectively, during the past three years. These ratios will average around 2 and 14 during the next five years. While Omnicom has not been nearly as aggressive in pursuing the acquisition route as some of its peers, cash allocated toward acquisitions and dividends during the past three years has been equivalent to 4% and 32%, respectively, of the firm’s free cash flow.
Bulls Say’s
- Omnicom’s management team is very experienced and has delivered solid results over an extended period through a variety of economic environments.
- Omnicom’s agencies, such as BBDO and DDB, are some of the most acclaimed in the business.
- The strength of Omnicom’s three major global networks allows the firm to retain even dissatisfied clients by switching them from one award-winning network to another.
Company Profile
Omnicom is the world’s second-largest ad holding company, based on annual revenue. The American firm’s services, which include traditional and digital advertising and public relations, are provided worldwide, with over 85% of its revenue coming from more developed regions such as North America and Europe.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Aristocrat’s research and development expenditure is unmatched by peers. This investment is the lifeblood of any electronic gaming manufacturer, especially given rapidly changing technology, and allows Aristocrat to maintain game quality, differentiate products from lower-end competitors, and defend its narrow economic moat.
Aristocrat is among the top three global competitors in the highly competitive EGM market, alongside International Game Technology and Scientific Games. EGM sales have been particularly hard-hit as coronavirus-induced shutdowns, social distancing measures, and travel restrictions weigh on the firm’s customers. With less turnover likely up for grabs in the near-term, heavy discounting could weigh on Aristocrat’s profitability in the fiercely competitive electronic gaming machine industry. Aristocrat operates in a market protected from new entrants as stringent regulatory licensing requirements in major markets create barriers to entry for new players.
Financial Strength:
The fair value of Aristocrat has been increased by the analysts by 9% to AUD 36.00 following the announcement of a AUD 5 billion acquisition of U.K.-listed Playtech, AUD 1.3 billion equity raising, and virtual release of fiscal 2021 results.
Aristocrat Leisure is in strong financial health. At March 31, 2021, the company had AUD 1.3 billion net debt, equating to net debt/EBITDA of 1.2- down from AUD 1.6 billion in net debt, equating to net debt/EBITDA of 1.4 at Sept. 30, 2020. EBITDA interest cover is comfortable at over 9 times. With the AUD 1.3 billion capital raising, Aristocrat’s balance sheet is well-capitalised to absorb the AUD 5 billion acquisition of U.K.-listed Playtech, with pro forma net debt/EBITDA of 2.6. Aristocrat is expected to return to paying out dividends from approximately 30% of underlying earnings from fiscal 2021, ramping back up to 40% by fiscal 2022.
Bulls Say:
- Aristocrat operates in a market protected from new entrants as stringent regulatory licensing requirements in major markets create barriers to entry for new players.
- Unlike the mature electronic gaming machine industry, the fast-growing mobile gaming market provides an avenue of strong growth for Aristocrat.
- Already boasting a portfolio of highly regarded electronic gaming machines, Aristocrat outspends rivals on research and development allowing the firm to improve its competitive position and protect its narrow economic moat.
Company Profile:
Aristocrat Leisure is an electronic gaming machine manufacturer, selling machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in all Australian states and territories, North American jurisdictions, and essentially every major country. Aristocrat is one of the top three largest players in the space along with International Game Technology and Scientific Games. Through acquisitions of Plarium and more recently Big Fish, Aristocrat now derives a significant proportion of earnings from the faster growing mobile gaming business.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
The global cruise market has historically been underpenetrated, offering long-term demand opportunity. Additionally, in recent years, the repositioning and deployment of ships to faster-growing and under-represented regions like Asia-Pacific had helped balance the supply in high-capacity regions like the Caribbean and Mediterranean, aiding pricing tactics.
However, global travel has waned as a result of COVID-19, which has the potential to spark longer-term secular shifts in consumer behavior, challenging the economic performance of Carnival over an extended horizon. As consumers slowly resume cruising after a year-plus no-sail halt, cruise operators will have to continue to reassure passengers of both the safety and value propositions of cruising. On the yield side, Carnival is expected to see some pricing pressure as future cruise credits are redeemed in the year ahead, a headwind partially mitigated by a measured return of capacity. And on the cost side, higher spend to implement tighter cleanliness and health protocols could initially inflate spending. Aggravating profits will be the fact that the entire fleet will likely have staggered reintroductions, crimping profitability over the 2021-22 time frame, ceding scale benefits. For reference, as COVID-19 continues to wane, 61% of capacity (50 ships) is expected to be deployed by November.
Financial Strength:
The fair value of Carnival is USD 26.50 which has been raised by the analysts from USD 25 with a view that more than half the fleet (50 ships, 61% capacity) is expected to be deployed by the end of fiscal 2021, giving the better visibility on the return to profitability.
Carnival has secured adequate liquidity to survive a slow resumption of domestic cruising, with $7.8 billion in cash and investments at the end of August 2021. This should cover the company’s cash burn rate over the ramp-up, which is set to increase from the roughly $500 million per month experienced in the first half of 2021 as ship start-up costs arise. Carnival has raised $5.9 billion in debt, $1 billion in equity, and has repriced its $2.8 billion term loan (2025), bolstering financial flexibility. Additionally, Carnival eliminated its dividend ($1.4 billion in 2019), freeing up cash to support operating expense. An additional $3 billion in current customer deposits were on the balance sheet. The company has renegotiated much of its debt, with less than $4.5 billion in short term and current maturities of long term debt coming due over the next year versus $30 billion in total debt.
Bulls Say:
- As Carnival deploys its fleet, passenger counts and yields could rise at a faster pace than we currently anticipate if capacity limitations are repealed.
- A more efficient fleet composition (after pruning 19 ships during COVID-19) may help contain fuel spending, benefiting the cost structure to a greater degree than initially expected, once sailings fully resume.
- The nascent Asia-Pacific market should remain promising post-COVID-19, as the four largest operators had capacity for nearly 4 million passengers in 2020, which provides an opportunity for long-term growth with a new consumer.
Company Profile:
Carnival is the largest global cruise company, set to deploy 50 ships on the seas by the end of fiscal 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; and P&O Cruises in Australia. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival’s brands attracted about 13 million guests in 2019, prior to COVID-19.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
