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Small Cap

Overseas Market, Pexa’s Next Frontier Of Growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Pexa is the first electronic conveyancing, or e-conveyancing, platform for real estate in Australia. Real estate conveyancing has historically been a labour-intensive process which is vulnerable to errors, whereas digitisation has created efficiencies and reduced the likelihood of issues. Specifically, Pexa is an electronic lodgment network operator, or ELNO, which enables real estate owners to electronically update information about a property at the land title office, amongst other things. Pexa generates revenue by charging fees to facilitate real estate transactions over its network, meaning that the key drivers of its revenue are the number of transactions and the price per transaction.

With no competitors currently offering an equivalent e-conveyancing platform, Pexa has been able to establish a monopoly in the Australian e-conveyancing market. Pexa’s monopoly has been further supported by four out of six Australian states mandating the use e-conveyancing for real estate transactions. Despite attempts to increase competition within Australian e-conveyancing, Pexa–by virtue of being the first mover–is likely to remain the dominant e-conveyancing provider moving forward. ARNECC, or the Australian Registrars National Electronic Conveyancing Council, regulates ELNOs and are attempting to introduce greater competition through interoperability. Interoperability intends to open Pexa’s network to competing ELNOs, who are currently developing their own e-conveyancing platforms. However, ELNOs provide largely commoditised services and there is little incentive for customers to integrate with many different providers. First mover advantages are likely to result in Pexa remaining the dominant player in Australian e-conveyancing. 

Pexa’s dominant position in the Australian market means that overseas expansion represents the next frontier of growth. Replicating Pexa’s success overseas has the potential to be highly lucrative, however, this will involve numerous challenges and there is no guarantee of success. Pexa also has other revenue sources, such as data insights and venture capital. However, these are currently in infancy and are largely immaterial.

Financial Strength

Pexa is in reasonable financial shape and had AUD 220 million in net debt as at Dec. 31, 2021 which equates to a net debt/equity ratio of around 1.5. Debt will be drawn on a revolving basis, with covenants, interest costs and specific repayment dates yet to be disclosed. Pexa’s wide moat, high margins, and strong competitive position should mean adequate cash flows to maintain this level of financial leverage. It is likely Pexa’s Australian business to be a “cash cow” thanks to its wide economic moat, effective monopoly, low capital intensity, and relatively high margins. This should generate cash for sustainable dividends and enable deleveraging of the balance sheet.

Bulls Say’s

  • Pexa has a rare wide economic moat and a monopoly in the Australian e-conveyancing market. 
  • Pexa operates a capital-light business model and has strong margins, which should underpin sustainable fully franked dividends in the long term. 
  • Pexa may be able to leverage its Australian platform in overseas markets, such as the U.K., Canada, and New Zealand, offering significant growth and similar defensive revenue streams and high profit margins.

Company Profile 

Pexa is the first electronic conveyancing platform for real estate in Australia and derives revenue by charging fees to facilitate real estate transactions over its network. The emergence of electronic conveyancing creates a number of efficiencies and replaces the historical labour-intensive process which was vulnerable to errors. Having achieved dominance of the Australian electronic conveyancing market, Pexa is looking to expand overseas and replicate its success in international locations. The company was founded in 2010 by a group of Australian state governments with Australia’s “big four” banks beginning to transact on the platform shortly after. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Suncorp Group Ltd FY23 Plan, Dividend policy and Natural hazards & reinsurance

Investment Thesis:

  • Due to factors impacting both the achievement of the underlying ITR and cost to income targets, alongside the historically low interest rate environment, management believe it’s difficult to achieve a ROE target of 10% in FY21, however it seeks to maintain an ordinary dividend payout ratio of 60-80% of cash earnings.
  • SUN currently trades on a 2-yr forward PE-multiple of 15.1x and a fully franked yield of 5.0% – attractive. 
  • Share buyback of up to $250m should support its share price.
  • APRA allows advanced accreditation for SUN’s Bank resulting in capital relief.
  • Better than expected margin outcome in banking and general insurance (GI).
  • Positive industry changes from the Royal Commission recommendations. 
  • Continual strong credit quality for its Bank and Wealth segment whilst maintaining net interest margins.
  • Management can maintain an underlying insurance trading ratio of 12% consistently going forward and sustainable ROE of at least 10%.

Key Risks:

  • Greater than expected competition in lines of insurance affecting pricing, unit growth, and risk management.
  • Continuing elevated natural catastrophe occurrences such as the NSW bushfires, which will use up reinsurance and impact SUN’s earnings.
  • Not achieving key targets for FY21 such as the rollout of the Company’s technology and digital platforms.
  • Weaker than expected investment yields.
  • Lower net interest margins or higher provisions than expected.
  • Increased levels of claims.

Key highlights:

SUN saw Group NPAT decline -20.8% over pcp to $388m and cash earnings decline -29.1% over pcp to $361m primarily impacted by natural hazard claims costs of $695m ($205m more than expected) and investment market volatility, which saw the Group cut dividend by -11.5% over pcp to 23 Cash per share. GWP growth in Australia and NZ remained strong and the Group’s underlying ITR (excluding Covid-19 impacts) increased +60bps over 2H21 to 8.0% driven by the Consumer portfolio, with management continuing to guide towards the target of 10-12% in FY23.

Bank continued to make good progress on its strategic initiative, increasing lending by +2.2% over pcp and ending the half with a strong capital position.

  • Capital management:  (1) Completed a $250m on-market buyback, which is expected to improve EPS by +1.6%. (2) Maintained a strong capital position with CET1 at Group level of $492m (post buyback and final and special dividend payment), with both the GI Group and Bank CET1 ratios within their target operating ranges. (3) The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 23cps, equating to a pay-out ratio of 80% of cash earnings, at the top of the target pay-out range of 60-80%.
  • Insurance Australia:  PAT declined -55.8% over pcp to $114m, as strong top-line growth (GWP ex FSL up +5.1% over pcp to $4.5bn) and improved working claims performance was adversely impacted by adverse natural hazards experience (net incurred claims up +1.8% over pcp) and lower investment returns (down -98.7% over pcp to $4m). 
  • Banking & Wealth: (1) PAT rose +5.3% over pcp to $200m, driven by growth in loan balances (total lending up +2.2% over pcp driven by home lending partially offset by decline in business lending) and a net impairment release (release of $16m amid a $15m reduction in the Collective Provision due to the improvement in economic conditions), partly offset by a lower NIM (down -7bps over pcp to 1.97% due to reduced home lending margins from increased competition and movements in market rates, higher fixed rate home lending mix, partly offset by active management of customer deposits pricing) and increased expenses (up +1.1% over pcp leading to cost-to-income ratio increasing 110bps to 57.6%) to support strategic investment and volume growth. (2) Bank’s capital position remained strong with CET1 ratio of 9.91% (down -15bps over pcp), above the target operating range of 9-9.5%.  
  • NZ: PAT declined -34.9% over pcp to NZ$84m, primarily driven by a -22% decline in General Insurance PAT to NZ$78m as strong GWP growth (up +14% over pcp) was more than offset by adverse investment market impacts and elevated natural hazard experience (net incurred claims up +17.6% over pcp with natural hazard claims up +41.2% over pcp), and -79.3% over pcp decline in NZ Life Insurance PAT to NZ$6m.

Company Description:

Suncorp Group Ltd (SUN) provides general insurance, banking, life insurance, and superannuation products and related services to the retail, corporate, and commercial sectors in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Personal Insurance, Commercial Insurance, General Insurance New Zealand, and Banking segments.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.