Business Strategy & Outlook
For many consumers, the Pepsi trademark elicits images of cola containers and ads extolling the brand’s taste superiority versus Coke. While PepsiCo is still a beverage behemoth, its business now extends beyond this industry, with Frito-Lay and Quaker products accounting for over half of sales and over 65% of profits. A diversified portfolio across snacks and beverages is the source of many of the company’s competitive advantages. Though management missteps have stymied performance in the past, the confluence of better execution and benefits inherent to its integrated business model has allowed Pepsi to reaccelerate profitable growth, and the plenty of room to run.
After years of sluggish sales growth and underinvestment, Pepsi has committed to reinvigorating its top line. To that end, it has made significant investments in manufacturing capacity (for example, production lines to meet demand for reformulated packaging), system capacity (route optimization and sales technology), and productivity (harmonization and automation). These investments as prudent and believe they will allow the company to strengthen key trademarks such as Mountain Dew and Gatorade, deepen its presence in growth markets like sub-Saharan Africa, and yield enough cost savings to reinvest and widen profits. Recent strategic pivots in the energy category (such as the Rockstar acquisition and Mountain Dew line extensions) should also underpin growth and margins.
Pepsi’s growth trajectory is not without risk, as the company faces secular headwinds such as shifts in consumer behavior. Additionally, changing go-to-market dynamics, such as online commerce that encourages real-time price comparisons and obviates the extent of Pepsi’s retail distribution advantage, allow for more nimble and aggressive competition. Still, the structural dynamics emanating from Pepsi’s scale, the cachet of its brands, and the breadth of its portfolio, which support its wide moat, should enable the company to maintain and augment its competitive positioning.
Financial Strengths
A Pepsi’s financial health as excellent. While leverage has ticked up due to recent acquisitions, the company still has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and robust free cash flow generation. Strong interest coverage ratios also lend credence to the firm’s health in this regard. One cannot not foresee Pepsi having any issues meeting its contractual obligations for the foreseeable future, given the reliability of its business and its stalwart positioning across its categories. Historically, the company has regularly produced around $7 billion in free cash flow (high-single to low-double digits as a percentage of sales). Management has prioritized strategic investments across the business of late, which as prudent to aid its competitive standing over the long term. While capacity (particularly in snacking growth areas) and digital capability investments will remain elevated in 2022 and beyond, the free cash flow to normalize at or above historical levels, particularly as the company’s revenue management and supply chain digitization initiatives continue to bear fruit. Management’s guiding principle as it relates to debt levels is to maintain access to Tier 1 commercial paper. While the prerequisites for this status vary by rating agency, no one can impediments to Pepsi’s ability to continue relying on this short-duration paper, and the current leverage levels (around 2.5 times net debt/EBITDA) are appropriate for the firm. Moreover, the firm’s commercial paper access as one of the biggest testaments to its financial strength; this cheap financing should facilitate and perpetuate Pepsi’s financial flexibility. As exit the pandemic, liquidity should be of no concern to Pepsi investors–in addition to roughly $6 billion in cash at the end of fiscal 2021, the firm has undrawn credit facilities in excess of $7 billion.
Bulls Say
- In still beverages—a category facing fewer secular challenges, particularly in the U.S.–Pepsi is a much more formidable competitor to Coca-Cola.
- Pepsi’s global dominance in salty snacks may be underappreciated; with volume share more than 10 times that of the next-largest competitor, the firm benefits from unparalleled unit economics and go-to market optionality.
- The firm’s consolidated beverage and snack distribution operations, combined with its direct store delivery capabilities, allow for better execution in merchandising.
Company Description
PepsiCo is one of the largest food and beverage companies globally. It makes, markets, and sells a slew of brands across the beverage and snack categories, including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Doritos, Lays, and Ruffles. The firm uses a largely integrated go-to-market model, though it does leverage third-party bottlers, contract manufacturers, and distributors in certain markets. In addition to company-owned trademarks, Pepsi manufactures and distributes other brands through partnerships and joint ventures with companies such as Starbucks. The firm segments its operations into five primary geographies, with North America (comprising Frito-Lay North America, Quaker Foods North America, and North America beverages) constituting around 60% of consolidated revenue.
(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy & Outlook
Aurora cultivates and sells cannabis predominantly in Canada but also exports it to the global medical market. Aurora considers itself a medical cannabis company first but has benefited from the legalization of recreational cannabis in Canada in 2018. Recreational use now accounts for nearly 40% of gross sales, although this share is slightly lower than peers. The Canadian medical market to grow slowly at roughly 1.5% as recreational legalization takes customers. The robust recreational growth of roughly 15%, driven by the conversion of illicit-market consumers into the legal market and new cannabis consumers.
Aurora has expanded its global medical exports, currently shipping to more than 20 countries. The global market looks lucrative, given higher realized prices and the growing acceptance of cannabis’ medical benefits. Exporters must pass strict regulations to enter markets, protecting early entrants like Aurora. Continued growth in its medical exports has helped Aurora see volume and price growth even as its domestic market has struggled during pandemic lockdowns. The roughly 20% average annual growth through 2031. The U.S. will change federal law to recognize states’ choices on legality within their borders, unlocking the fastest-growing and largest potential cannabis market, which as per the estimate will be more than five times larger than the Canadian market. At present, Aurora would not benefit from a change in U.S. federal law on THC cannabis, as its only exposure is through hemp-derived CBD products through its May 2020 acquisition of Reliva. Aurora is one of the few Canadian producers with no standing deals with a U.S. multistate operator, although it believes it would be able to draw an attractive partner should the law change.
Unlike some of its peers, Aurora doesn’t have the financial backing of a bigger company. This forces it to rely more heavily on equity market access while its peers can rely on the deep pockets of a large partner for capital. This raises the risk of massive equity dilution to avoid running out of cash. Most recently, it issued equity at a 60% discount to the fair value estimates in May 2022.
Financial Strengths
Aurora’s financial health has been a lingering concern but is improving. At the end of its third quarter of fiscal 2022, the company had about CAD 334 million of convertible notes compared with a market capitalization of roughly CAD 700 million. The notes are due in 2024, so the company has some time. The company raised another $150 million in May 2022 by selling shares and warrants. The extra cash boosts financial health at a massive cost to existing shareholders. Aurora continues to generate cash losses. This is particularly concerning because the company has limited capital markets access and no major strategic partner backing it. However, since announcing its restructuring program, the company has significantly reduced its cash burn and positive EBITDA is nearing. Aurora’s access to debt markets is limited. Consequentially, the company has relied on equity offerings to fund its cash needs, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders. In fact, shares roughly doubled from March 2020 to March 2021. Having sizable leverage while remaining unprofitable creates additional risk for Aurora. This creates a wide range of possible valuation outcomes for shares amid the significant risk of value destruction. With Aurora shares having fallen over the last several months along with the broader cannabis sector, any share issuances would be even more dilutive.
Bulls Say
Aurora has rationalized its production facilities and head count, significantly reducing its cash burn.
Cannabis cultivation is complicated, including challenging operational ramp-ups and optimization. Aurora’s strategic focus on its cultivation operations will help it achieve lower production costs than peers.
Aurora’s international exposure can deliver high margin sales to help its path to profitability.
Company Description
Aurora Cannabis, headquartered in Edmonton, Canada, cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through a portfolio of brands that includes Aurora, CanniMed, Daily Special, MedReleaf, and San Rafael ’71. Although the company primarily operates in Canada, it has expanded internationally through medical cannabis exporting agreements or cultivation facilities in more than 20 countries.
(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy and Outlook
SL Green Realty is a real estate investment trust engaged in the acquisition, development, repositioning, ownership, and management of commercial real estate properties, principally office properties. Most of the companies’ properties are in the Manhattan area. The company held interests in approximately 35 million SF, which includes ownership interests in 26.7 million SF in Manhattan buildings and 7.2 million SF securing debt and preferred equity investments. The strategy of the company is to maintain a high-quality portfolio of buildings in desirable locations and focus on creating value through new developments, capital recycling, and joint venture investments. As an instance, SL Green’s $3 billion megaproject One Vanderbilt was completed amidst the pandemic and has already achieved high occupancy rates.
The economic uncertainty emanating from pandemic recovery and the remote work dynamic have created a challenging environment for office owners. Employees are still hesitant in returning to the office as office utilization remains around 45% of the pre-pandemic level. The vacancy rate for office spaces in Manhattan was recorded at 21% in first-quarter 2022, which is roughly 1000 basis points higher than pre-pandemic levels. On the supply side, approximately 17 million SF of office space, which amounts to around 4% of the total inventory is currently under construction in Manhattan and would be added to the market in upcoming years. It is alleged this additional supply to further pressure fundamentals in the market. The Manhattan net absorption rate remains negative as of first-quarter 2022 and rental growth figures are disappointing especially given the highly inflationary environment.
Having said this, an increasing number of companies requiring their employees to return to the office can be seen. In the long run, it is anticipated that remote work and hybrid remote work solutions will gain increasing acceptance, but offices will continue to be the centrepiece of workplace strategy and will play an essential role in facilitating collaboration, harnessing innovation, and maintaining the company culture.
Financial Strength
It is likely, SL Green has relatively more debt compared with other office REITs especially after considering its share of debt in unconsolidated joint ventures. The firm owns a majority of its properties through unconsolidated JVs and these properties are significantly more leveraged than the firm’s balance sheet. However, it is bought to light that the unconsolidated JV debt is secured by the portfolio assets and have limited recourse to the parent company. The company’s share of debt which also includes its share of unconsolidated JV debt was $9.9 billion as of the end of first-quarter 2022, resulting in a debt/EBITDA ratio of 13.1 times. The current debt/EBITDA ratio is also high because of a lower base in the current challenging environment. It is held that, the figure should come down slightly over the next few years as fundamentals recover and EBITDA sees healthy growth. Having said this, it is absorbed that SL Green’s higher leverage implies a higher financial risk for the firm. The weighted average interest rate on the company’s debt was 3.11% and the debt maturity schedule shows that the maturities are adequately spread. Approximately 77% of the total debt is fixed-rate debt with the other 23% being floating rate debt. The debt service coverage ratio which is a ratio of EBITDA divided by interest and principal payments was 2.2 times as of the end of first-quarter 2022. The fixed-charge coverage ratio which is a ratio of EBITDA are divided by all fixed expenses (including interest) was 1.9 times as of the end of first-quarter 2022. The debt and fixed-charge coverage ratios are 3.8 times and 2.9 times, respectively, if only consolidated figures are considered. As a REIT, SL Green is required to pay out at least 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders. The FAD pay-out ratio which is a ratio of dividends to funds available for distribution was reported at 70% for the year 2021. This shows the firm is generating sufficient cash to cover its fixed expenses and pay out dividend.
Bulls Say’s
- SL Green’s midtown focus allows it to access one of the most vibrant business districts in the world. In addition to this, the company’s high-quality office buildings with good amenities should benefit from the flight to quality trend.
- The development pipeline of the company is poised to drive significant net operating income growth for SL Green.
- SL Green attracts the highest-quality tenants with the deepest pockets, greatly reducing risk across its portfolio.
Company Profile
SL Green is one of the largest Manhattan property owner and landlord, with interest in around 35 million square feet of wholly owned and joint venture office space. The company has additional property exposure through its limited portfolio of well-located retail space. It operates as a real estate investment trust
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.