Business Strategy & Outlook

Adept at partnerships and acquisitions, Bristol-Myers Squibb has built a strong portfolio of drugs and a robust pipeline. This strategy is seen with its large acquisition of Celgene, which netted the firm an excellent pipeline and a strong entrenchment in blood cancer. The strong overall pipeline helps support its wide moat. Bristol has created a strong pipeline and brought in partners to share the development costs and diversify the risks of clinical and regulatory failure. The cardiovascular partnership with Pfizer represents one of the most important partnerships, managing the blockbuster potential of Eliquis in atrial fibrillation. While Bristol discovered the drug internally, its strategic partnering decisions, as the moves reduce risks and lower development and marketing costs. Within the pipeline, the astute acquisition of Medarex helps secure Bristol’s strong first-mover advantage in cancer immunotherapy, which should yield several major blockbuster compounds.

 Bristol’s PD-1 cancer drug Opdivo holds the potential to revolutionize cancer treatment and should drive multi-billion-dollar sales annually based on solid efficacy, combination potential with other drugs and strong pricing power. However, competition from Merck’s Keytruda will likely limit Opdivo in some segments of the market, including lung cancer. Bristol is aggressively repositioning itself to expand through challenging patent losses. The company has shed its diabetes business, medical imaging group, wound care division, and nutritional business in an effort to focus on the high-margin specialty drug group. The Celgene acquisition moves Bristol significantly further into the specialty pharmaceutical segment of the market. Celgene’s drugs largely target cancer, which tends to be an area with strong drug pricing power, which should help Bristol maintain its drug pricing ability in a time when both governments and private payers are pushing back on drug prices.

Financial Strengths

Following the Celgene acquisition, Bristol carries a fairly high debt load with close to $30 billion in net debt as of the end of 2021, but the debt/EBITDA to fall close to 1.3 times by 2023 based on the strong cash flows from several well-positioned cancer drugs. Bristol’s cash flows combined with Celgene’s cash flows should put the firm on solid financial footing before the worst of the patent losses, which begin in 2022-23. The firm continues to make small to midsize acquisitions, such as the recent $13 billion purchase of MyoKardia, as it needs to further build out its pipeline to drive long-term growth.

Bulls Say

• Bristol’s growth prospects are focused on new cancer indications for Opdivo and cardiovascular drug Eliquis, which holds leading efficacy data in the atrial fibrillation class. 
• Oncology drug Opdivo holds the potential to radically shift the treatment paradigm in several cancer indications, which should result in peak sales of more than $10 billion annually. 
• The majority of Bristol’s late-stage pipeline focuses on immunology and cancer–indications where the FDA aggressively approves drugs and which typically hold strong pricing power.

Company Description

Bristol-Myers Squibb discovers, develops, and markets drugs for various therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, cancer, and immune disorders. A key focus for Bristol is immuno-oncology, where the firm is a leader in drug development. Unlike some of its more diversified peers, Bristol has exited several non pharmaceutical businesses to focus on branded specialty drugs, which tend to support strong pricing power.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Business Strategy & Outlook

In January 2016, ACE acquired Chubb in a deal valued at about $28 billion and assumed its name. The deal looked fairly valued and there were meaningful cost benefits involved, with management eventually exceeding its initial targets. However, from a long-term perspective, the enthusiastic about the fact that the combination created a moaty international insurer with exposure across most insurance lines for the first time, marking Chubb as potentially the most attractive long-term core holding in the space from a fundamental point of view. In 2020, the coronavirus affected the industry’s and Chubb’s results, and the company’s COVID-19 losses were roughly in line with peers’ as a percentage of premiums. 

However, the impact at Chubb and peers was manageable and well within the range of events that the industry has successfully absorbed in the past. The future looks relatively bright. While the pricing environment had not been particularly favorable in recent years, pricing momentum picked up in primary lines in 2019, and this positive trend only accelerated in 2020. More recently, pricing has started to level off, but the industry has enjoyed the highest increases it has seen since 2003. While higher pricing is necessary to some extent to offset lower interest rates and a rise in social inflation, pricing increases appear to be more than sufficient to offset these factors.

Financial Strengths

One can remain comfortable with Chubb’s financial health. Equity/assets was 30% at the end of 2021, and while the company has a large amount of goodwill on its balance sheet, its balance sheet structure is reasonable and roughly in line with peers on a tangible basis. Like all property and casualty insurers, the company’s earnings and capital in any particular year could take a material hit due to catastrophes or securities market movements that affect its investment portfolio. However, the company’s insurance operations are well diversified, and it has a history of superior underwriting profits, so one wouldn’t expect a large catastrophe year to significantly degrade its capital position. The firm also retains a fairly conservative investment portfolio, which is concentrated in government debt, municipal bonds, and highly rated corporate securities.

Bulls Say

• Chubb is one of the few companies with the global footprint that large corporate insurance customers demand. Its network has created a barrier to entry for potential competitors. 
• Chubb is a large insurer with leading positions in the most moaty areas of the P&C insurance industry. 
• Chubb’s international operations benefit from significant growth opportunities.

Company Description

ACE acquired Chubb in the first quarter of 2016 and assumed the Chubb name. The combination makes the new Chubb one of the largest domestic property and casualty insurers, with operations in 54 countries spanning commercial and personal P&C insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.