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Accor’s Demand Stout but Inflation Is Impacting Its Near-Term Profitability

Business Strategy & Outlook

While the coronavirus and geopolitical conflict present near-term demand headwinds, the Accor to expand share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty and exposure to the millennial traveler through its growing lifestyle brands, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the source of its narrow moat. As a result, the Accor posted more than 3%-unit growth on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core European region (58% of total hotels in 2021). Accor’s growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury/upscale rooms, which were 27% of its total in 2021. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. 

The European travel to rebound in 2022-23, aided by the region’s increased vaccination rates and an ingrained desire to travel. The Accor positioned to benefit from such a recovery, given most of its hotels are in Europe, and given the company’s pracademic (2017-19) revenue per available room growth in the region exceeded the industry rate, driven by its intangible asset advantage. This recovery despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where around 1% of Accor’s portfolio resides. Accor sold a meaningful portion of its owned assets in 2018-19, leaving the remaining company with 98% of its rooms tied to asset-light franchise and managed business as of the end of 2021, up from 58% of the mix in 2014. These asset-light rooms offer high returns on invested capital and contract lengths of 30 years that are costly to terminate, resulting in a switching cost advantage for the company. Additionally, recent asset sales have helped provide the company enough liquidity to operate into 2023 at near zero revenue demand levels, even before tapping upon its remaining EUR 1.76 billion revolver or needing to raise financing.

Financial Strengths

While the pandemic makes near-term industry travel demand uncertain, Accor’s financial health is far clearer. By calculating that since 2018, Accor’s disposal of owned assets and investments has provided between EUR 6 billion-EUR 7 billion in cash, which provides the company with enough liquidity into 2023 at near zero revenue generation, even before tapping the remaining availability on its EUR 1.76 billion under its revolver. Accor’s debt/adjusted EBITDA turned negative in 2020, as the pandemic stalled demand, but EBITDA turned slightly positive in 2021, as demand rebounded and Accor executed on removing fixed and variable costs out of its business. This compares with 2019’s 4.5 times level. As demand continues to recover, the Accor’s debt/adjusted EBITDA reaching 4.3 and 3.5 times in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Accor has suspended dividends and share repurchases until demand visibility improves, which one believe is being done out of extreme caution–not out of necessity. The dividends and share repurchase to resume in 2023. Accor’s EBIT/interest coverage ratio was 9 times for 2019, and then turned negative in 2020, followed by a move back into positive territory in 2021. Its coverage ratio reaching 4.7 and 6.6 times in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The Accor will generate EUR 2.3 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, which gives us confidence in its ability to meet the EUR 1.5 billion in debt obligations during that time.

Bulls Say

  • Accor’s mid-single-digit share of hotel industry rooms is set to increase, as the company controls about 10% of the rooms in the global hotel industry pipeline. 
  • Accor’s recent investments (Fairmont and Raffles, Mantra, Mantis, Movenpick, and Atton) have diversified it in the attractive growth segment of international luxury brands. 
  • Accor has sold the vast majority of its Hotel Invest (owned assets) portfolio in 2018-19 and Orbis and Movenpick owned portfolio in 2020, which leaves a more asset-light company with higher margins.

Company Description

Accor operates 778,000 rooms across over 40 brands addressing the economy through luxury segments, as of Dec. 31, 2021. Ibis (economy scale) is the largest brand (37% of total rooms at the end of 2021), followed by Novotel (14%) and Mercure (15%). FRHI offers additional luxury and North American exposure. After the sale of the majority of Hotel Invest (owned assets) in 2018-19, the majority of total EBITDA comes from Hotel Services (asset-light). Northern Europe represents 21% of rooms, Southern Europe 23%, Asia-Pacific region 31%, Americas 13%, and India, Middle East, and Africa 12%. Economy and midscale are 73% of rooms.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

Hermes Delivers Record Growth and Profitability, Helped by Sales Across Segments

Business Strategy & Outlook

The wide-moat Hermes International has carved out a unique niche in the luxury goods industry, which will provide it with continuing superior returns on capital. Hermes’ iconic leather bag styles (part of the more than EUR 4 billion leather goods segment) are in limited supply, supporting the brand’s exclusivity perception and providing the company with demand visibility and significant pricing power. Hermes Birkin and Kelly bags are sold in secondary markets and auctions for higher than the initial purchase prices–an impressive feat for soft luxury goods. The remainder of Hermes’ product portfolio has a wide moat and includes small leather goods, scarves, jewelry items, saddles, and dining sets. These goods cater to aspirational consumers and high-net-worth individuals and also serve as gifts, providing Hermes with recurring demand and protecting it from cyclical demand fluctuations. 

Hermes is distinctive among competition thanks to its vertically integrated supply chain, from leather tanning to leather goods stitching to controlled distribution through owned and operated (as well as concessional) stores. This allows the company to maintain the necessary quality control (and the perception of it among consumers) and certain price positioning (no discounting). Over the years, Hermes has been carefully managed, but as it expands, maintaining the exclusivity perception and strong top-line growth may become more challenging. The Hermes to expand through maintainable pricing power, widening the product range, and minor store count additions. Demand should be driven by the increasing number of high-net-worth and middle-class individuals globally, as well as growth in their incomes. China is still expected to remain the biggest growth driver in the longer term, as consumption is supported by higher wages through a shrinking labor pool and new fortunes are made in such industries as technology and other value-added sectors.

Financial Strengths

Hermes is practically debt-free (excluding operating leases) with over EUR 4.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet. Its financial position is very sound. Given relatively low investment needs relative to cash generated, Hermes has ample room for maintainable increase in the dividend, paying special dividends, and complete stock buybacks.

Bulls Say

  • Hermes benefits from unique positioning in the leather goods segment, supported by a supply/demand mismatch for its iconic bags. 
  • Hermes products include both big-ticket items and a range of small accessories that can be used as gifts, which helps to limit cyclicality and engages a broader customer audience. 
  • Disciplined expansion in a cyclical upswing allowed the company to maintain its exclusivity perception and contributed to profitability improvement.

Company Description

Hermes is a 180-year-old family-controlled luxury goods company best known for its Birkin and Kelly bags. Its biggest segments are leather goods and saddlery, accounting for around half of revenue; clothes and accessories (22% of sales); silk and textiles (7%); and other products such as perfumes, watches, jewelry, and home furnishings. Hermes has around 300 stores globally, of which it owns and operates 221.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Improving Offshore Activity Supports Strong Sequential Revenue Growth in Saipem’s Second Quarter

Business Strategy & Outlook

Saipem offers services in four distinct business lines: offshore engineering and construction, or E&C, onshore E&C, offshore drilling and onshore drilling. Offshore E&C is historically one of Saipem’s larger segments, historically representing a bit over 40% of the overall business. Generally, E&C firms manage an array of vessels (often owned) and equipment in addition to overseeing project management and engineering activities involved in developing the well. They also typically manage manufacturing operations, such as pipes fabrication. Saipem is one of the larger offshore E&C providers, mainly competing with Subsea 7 and TechnipFMC. The high degree of engineering expertise required to win contracts in the offshore space partially protects Saipem and its peers from high competition, which helps protect pricing power. Offshore E&C tends to be a profitable segment, though its high reliance on fixed-price contracts introduces a good deal of operating risk. 

Increased investment in offshore oil and gas production will provide numerous opportunities for growth in this segment over the next five years, while Saipem’s internal measures (mainly reducing its high capital intensity) will improve margins over time. Onshore E&C is Saipem’s other largest segment, averaging about 43% of the overall business prior to the pandemic. The segment features much lower operating profits, averaging just over 2% prior to the pandemic. Saipem targets infrastructure contracts, mostly for downstream oil and gas projects. Recently, Saipem aims to target contracts that will provide longer-term revenue streams, including biorefineries and fertilizer plants. Expanding beyond traditional oil and gas end-markets means Saipem will compete with generalist E&C providers, reducing the firm’s ability to command the same kind of pricing premiums enjoyed by its offshore E&C business. Overall, the Saipem’s profitability will improve over the next five years as capital expenditure expands in both onshore and offshore markets.

Financial Strengths

Following the capital increase in July 2022, the Saipem’s financial strength is sound. Over the last five years, net debt/EBITDA has averaged around 1.5 times. As Saipem’s profitability improves, This will settle below one time by mid cycle. At the last reporting period, Saipem’s total debt outstanding was EUR 3.7 billion. This includes five tranches of EUR 500 million notes maturing in 2023, 2025, 2026, and 2028, respectively. As such, the Saipem will have sufficient liquidity to make its payments, with about EUR 2 billion in cash on hand as of the last reporting period and EUR 1 billion available on an untapped credit facility. The 2022 debt to capital will be 50%, in line with the firm’s historic average.

Bulls Say

  • Saipem’s early investment in offshore wind will allow the firm to benefit from the very high growth expectations for offshore wind investment over the next decade. 
  • The firm’s shift to a more asset-light business coupled with longer-term contracts will reduce the impact of downcycles on the firm’s operating results. 
  • The company’s XSIGHT division will help XSIGHT develop more integrated product offerings that create a stickier customer base over time.

Company Description

Saipem is a conglomerate of oil and gas engineering and construction and drilling services. The company began as the services appendage of oil major Eni, although today Eni as a customer account for generally less than 10% of revenue. Saipem is distinguished for leading industry megaprojects like the Nord Stream pipeline carrying large volumes of natural gas from Russia to European markets.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

Mercedes-Benz Is a World Leader in Premium and Luxury Automobiles

Business Strategy & Outlook

Daimler AG completed the spinoff of its truck and bus operations on Dec. 10, 2021 and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG on Feb. 1, 2022. In 2021, the truck and bus business, now called Daimler Truck AG, accounted for 20% of consolidated revenue including discontinued operations and 11% of group adjusted EBIT. The remaining operations of Mercedes-Benz Group include premium and luxury passenger vehicles and light commercial vans as well as Mercedes-Benz Mobility, which includes financial services and other mobility services like ride-hailing. The highly regarded Mercedes-Benz brand is one of the top luxury automobile names in the world. The firm is also a European leader in commercial vans. Even so, Mercedes faces stiff competition in all of its markets. The company operates in the cyclical, capital-intense, highly competitive passenger vehicle industry where raw material commodity costs can be volatile and unionized labor can be expensive. 

Geographically diverse sales reduce exposure to the economic conditions of any one region. Even so, premium brands such as Mercedes-Benz limit exposure to downturns suffered by mass-market auto companies because wealthier customers’ spending is less sensitive to recessions. Global population growth of high-net-worth individuals has averaged 5%, increasing Mercedes’ addressable market, faster than the 1%-3% rate for long-term global light-vehicle demand growth. New products are critical to spurring consumer interest and can help results even in an economic downturn. Mercedes-Benz launches new or significantly refreshed models in various markets around the world every year. Research and development spending, including capitalized development costs, is substantial, averaging roughly 6% of sales, which is a necessary part of a long-term strategy. Environmental legislation worldwide forces automakers to design vehicles with more efficient combustion engines and electrified powertrains. By 2030, the company says it will be “ready to go all-electric.”

Financial Strengths

One can consider Mercedes-Benz’ balance sheet to be in good shape. The company maintains a substantial cash balance and healthy availability on bank lines of credit. To remain competitive, automakers need high liquidity to fund R&D and capital investment to support product launches throughout economic cycles. At the end of 2021, the company had net industrial liquidity of EUR 21.0 billion (cash and credit line availability less debt). The company has healthy liquidity. The industrial business’ total adjusted debt/EBITDAR, which takes into consideration rent expense and operating leases, has averaged 0.7 times since 2011, which is strong for a capital-intensive, cyclical passenger vehicle maker. Financial liability maturities, including financial services, appear to be well laddered and matched with maturing financial loan assets. Mercedes’ consolidated capital structure is complex from its captive finance operations, which support industrial operations’ sales by providing credit to dealers and consumers but also have banking operations and other financial services. Aside from its balance sheet cash hoard, the company relies mostly on notes and bonds for its funding requirements but also uses lines of credit, deposits from banking customers, and commercial paper. The consolidated capital structure’s total debt/total capital historical average since 2011 is 63.0%. Taking Mercedes’ substantial cash position into account, net debt/total capital averages 51.6%. With the financial-services business accounted for on an equity basis, Mercedes’ total debt/total capital averages 13.8%, while net debt/total capital averages only negative 11.5%, denoting an average net cash position.

Bulls Say

  • Mercedes-Benz is a highly recognizable, well respected global luxury brand, giving the company a modest buffer against the cyclical downturns of auto sales. 
  • Mercedes’ strong R&D capabilities and electrified powertrain technologies should prove valuable because of global clean-air legislation. 
  • Management’s long-term return on sales targets are higher than what is model, so upside potential exists to the valuation.

Company Description

Based in Stuttgart, Germany, Mercedes-Benz Group AG makes premium passenger vehicles and commercial vans. Brands include Mercedes-Benz, AMG, and Maybach. Mercedes-Benz Mobility provides the company’s dealers and its customers with vehicle financing as well as mobility services in ride hailing, car sharing, and charging. Mercedes owns 11.9% of Aston Martin and 9.6% of Beijing Automotive Group. Li Shufu, chairman of Chinese automaker Geely Automobile, owns 9.7% of Mercedes-Benz. Other major shareholders include Kuwait Investment Authority at 6.8% and Beijing Automotive group at 5.0%.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Technology Stocks

Strong Execution Continued Into Q2 at T-Mobile; Shares Modestly Undervalued

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Business Strategy & Outlook

T-Mobile’s strong brand and reputation, coupled with its industry-leading spectrum position, provides it with an opportunity to drive strong revenue and profit growth over the next couple of years. Longer term, a rational competitive landscape will allow the firm and its rivals to deliver stable, if modest, cash flow growth. In the five years leading up to the Sprint acquisition, T-Mobile expanded its postpaid phone customer base nearly 60% while the rest of the industry stagnated. Despite this growth, T-Mobile remained far smaller than AT&T or Verizon, putting it at a scale disadvantage evident in significantly lower profitability than its larger rivals. With the addition of Sprint, though, T-Mobile is larger than AT&T and reasonably close to Verizon. The combination of scale and strong management should serve T-Mobile well. 2022 will be an important year, as the firm shuts down the Sprint networks and fully moves Sprint customers to T-Mobile’s network and systems, but one has little reason to doubt this process will go smoothly, as integration thus far has been impressive. 

The T-Mobile network will match up well with that of its rivals over the long term, and it is worthy of a narrow economic moat rating. Importantly, the massive amount of spectrum the firm now controls puts it in a strong position. Its mid band spectrum holdings, which will likely provide the bulk of wireless network capacity well into the future, are massive and largely unused. The firm avoided matching Verizon and AT&T egregious spending in the C-band spectrum auction as a result. Efficiently and effectively deploying this resource, something Sprint failed to do on its own, is now the firm’s primary objective. T-Mobile’s network isn’t perfect. The firm doesn’t own significant fixed-line assets, which will likely be increasingly important as wireless networks become denser. The firm will have access to third-party networks on reasonable terms, but this remains a risk. T-Mobile also leases many of its spectrum licenses and will need to renew leases or purchase licenses outright in the coming years.

Financial Strengths

T-Mobile had done a great job of reducing leverage over the past few years while Sprint had moved in the opposite direction. The merged firm started life with about $64 billion in debt net of cash, equal to about 2.9 times EBITDA, or about 3.5 times adjusted for Sprint’s heavy use of phone leases. Since the merger, T-Mobile has primarily used free cash flow to reduce leverage, but its participation in the C-band spectrum auction, where it spent $9.3 billion, pushed net debt up to $72 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2022. Growth in the business has still allowed net debt to remain at 3.0 times EBITDA. Net leverage also sits at 3.0 times “core-adjusted” EBITDA, which excludes integration costs but also eliminates the accounting benefit from phone lease revenue. T-Mobile management had said it believes it can run the business with leverage in the 3.0-4.0 times range but now targets leverage at a mid-2s multiple of core adjusted EBITDA, a level it believes it can hit by the end of 2022. Management has said it would need to cut leverage below 2.5 times to receive an investment-grade rating from the major agencies but notes that it has been able to borrow at rates only modestly higher than AT&T in recent years. The firm has also received an investment-grade rating on its secured borrowings. One suspect less favorable debt market condition would have a significant impact on T-Mobile’s borrowing costs. Taking leverage down to around 2.5 times adjusted core EBITDA seems reasonable but one wouldn’t be opposed if the firm drove leverage lower still given the ups and downs of the wireless industry and the financial capabilities of rivals AT&T and Verizon. Management expects to begin returning capital to shareholders in 2023, saying it could buy back up to $60 billion of its shares through 2025.

Bulls Say

  • After several years of unprecedented success, T-Mobile has the wind at its back. The firm’s reputation with consumers is as strong as ever, and its network is delivering better service than the other carriers. 
  • The Sprint merger has catapulted T-Mobile near the top of the industry, with ample scale to compete and a spectrum portfolio no other carrier can match. Heavy network investment will bring operating costs savings and a lead in 5G. 
  • Free cash flow, already positive during the Sprint integration, should grow sharply, providing the ability to return capital to shareholders.

Company Description

Deutsche Telekom merged its T-Mobile USA unit with prepaid specialist MetroPCS in 2013, creating T-Mobile US. Following the merger, the firm provided nationwide service in major markets but spottier coverage elsewhere. T-Mobile spent aggressively on low-frequency spectrum, well suited to broad coverage, and has substantially expanded its geographic footprint. This expansion, coupled with aggressive marketing and innovative offerings, produced rapid customer growth. With the Sprint acquisition, the firm’s scale now roughly matches its larger rivals: T-Mobile now serves 71 million postpaid and 21 million prepaid phone customers, equal to around 30% of the U.S. retail wireless market. In addition, the firm provides wholesale service to resellers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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