Category: Technology Stocks

Tech stocks refer to any stock involved in the technology sector, from semiconductor producers to software providers. Tech stocks are often a leading indicator for the economy and the stock market. Technology stocks generally follow the pattern of more innovation in the market & new development of product.

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Technology Stocks

APTIV ENJOYING STICKY MARKET SHARE THANKS TO CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS AND LONG TERM CONTRACTS

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is foreseen Aptiv’s average yearly revenue growth to exceed average annual growth in global light-vehicle demand by high-single-digit percentage points. The company provides automakers with components and systems that are in high demand from consumers and that government regulation requires to be installed. Aptiv’s high-growth technologies include advanced driver-assist systems, autonomous driving, connectivity, data services, and high-voltage electrical distribution systems for hybrids and battery electric vehicles. 

It is seen, Aptiv’s ability to regularly innovate and commercialize new technologies bolsters sales growth, margin, and return on investment. A global manufacturing presence enables Aptiv to serve customers around the globe, capitalizing on the economies of scale inherent in automakers’ plans to use more global vehicle platforms. Lean manufacturing discipline and a low-cost country footprint enable more favourable operating leverage as volume increases. 

Aptiv enjoys relatively sticky market share, supported by integral customer relationships and long-term contracts. The design phase of a vehicle program can last between 18 months and three years depending on the complexity and extent of the model redesign. The production phase averages between five and 10 years. Engineering and design for the types of products that Aptiv provides necessitate highly integrated, long-term customer relationships that are not easily broken by competitors’ attempts at market penetration. 

New Car Assessment Programs are used by governments around the world to provide an independent vehicle safety rating. Legislators, especially in the United States and in Europe, have set NCAP guidelines that will progressively require the addition of ADAS features as standard equipment through the end of this decade. If automakers intend certain models to achieve a 4- or 5-star safety rating, some ADAS features must be part of that vehicle’s standard equipment to even qualify for certain rating levels.

Financial Strength

It is seen, Aptiv’s financial health is in good shape. Since 2015, pro forma for the spin-off of Delphi Technologies in 2017, total debt/total capital has averaged 16.9% while total debt/EBITDA has averaged 2.9 times. Furthermost of Aptiv’s capital needs are met by cash flow from operations. However, the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the drawdown of the company’s $2.0 billion revolver on March 23, 2020. The revolver was repaid after the company raised capital through share issuance and a mandatory convertible preferred in June 2020. Aptiv’s liquidity remains healthy at $5.2 billion, with around $2.8 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of December 2020. The company was also granted covenant relief, with a debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.5 times through the second quarter of 2021, up from 3.5 times. With the exemption of the credit line that includes the revolver and a term loan, which expires in August 2021, the company has no other major maturities until 2024.The company has approximately $4.1 billion in senior unsecured note principal outstanding with maturities that range from 2024 to 2049, at a weighted average stated interest rate of 3.2%. Aptiv issued $300 million in 4.35% senior notes due in 2029 and $300 million 4.4% notes due in 2046 in March 2019 to redeem senior notes due in 2020 with an interest rate of 3.15%. The bonds and bank debt are all senior unsecured, pari passu, and have similar subsidiary guarantees.

Bulls Say’s

  • Owing to product segments with better-than-industry average growth prospects like safety, electrical architecture, electronics, and autonomous driving, it is projected Aptiv’s revenue to grow mid- to high-single digit percentage points in excess of the percentage change in global demand for new vehicles.
  • The ability to continuously innovate and commercialize new technologies should enable Aptiv to generate excess returns over its cost of capital.
  • A global manufacturing footprint enables participation in global vehicle platforms and provides penetration in developing markets.

Company Profile 

Bed Bath & Beyond is a home furnishings retailer, operating just under 1,000 stores in all 50 states, Puerto Rico, Canada, and Mexico. Stores carry an assortment of branded bed and bath accessories, kitchen textiles, and cooking supplies. In addition to 809 Bed Bath & Beyond stores, the company operates 133 Buy Buy Baby stores and 53 Harmon Face Values stores (health/beauty care). In an effort to refocus on its core businesses, the firm has divested the online retailer Personalizationmall.com, One Kings Lane, Christmas Tree Shops and That (gifts/housewares), Linen Holdings, and Cost-Plus World Market.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

We Like Intel’s Appointment of Micron CFO Dave Zinsner as its New CFO; No Change to FVE

Business Strategy and outlook

Intel is the leader in the integrated design and manufacturing of microprocessors found in PCs and servers. Intel historically differentiated itself first and foremost via the execution of Moore’s law, which predicts transistor density on integrated circuits will double about every two years, meaning subsequent chips have substantial power, cost, and size improvements. This scaling advantage was perpetuated through higher-than-peer-average R&D and capital expenditure budget that allows it to control the entire design and manufacturing process in an industry .

As cloud computing continues to garner significant investment, Intel’s data center group will be an indirect beneficiary. Mobile devices have become the preferred device to perform computing tasks and access data via cloud infrastructures that require large-scale server build-outs. This development has provided strong tailwinds for Intel’s lucrative server processor business. Morningstar analyst believe Intel will experience continued growth in the data center, though we note competition from AMD and customers designing their own ARM-based silicon are potent risks.

The proliferation of mobile devices has come at the expense of the mature PC market, Intel’s historic stronghold, with ARM and its cohorts joining AMD as chief rivals. The rise of artificial intelligence has also unleashed a new competitor in Nvidia for specialized chips to accelerate AI-related workloads. Consequently, Intel has built a broad accelerator portfolio via the acquisition of Altera for FPGAs, Mobileye for computer vision chips used in cars, and Habana Labs for AI chips.

We Like Intel’s Appointment of Micron CFO Dave Zinsner as its New CFO; No Change to FVE

On Jan. 10, Intel announced it appointed David Zinsner as CFO, thus filling the vacancy created by current CFO George Davis’s planned retirement in May 2022. Morningstar analyst think that Zinsner is the right CFO to manage this lofty spending budget, as Micron has successfully executed its new technology ramps on an average capex of $9.2 billion over the past four years. Morningstar analyst  are maintaining our $65 fair value estimate for wide-moat Intel; shares appear undervalued and present an attractive buying opportunity for long-term, patient investors.

Financial Strength

Intel typically operates with ample liquid cash reserves. At the end of 2020, the firm held about $36.4 billion in total debt and nearly $24 billion in cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and trading assets. Morningstar analyst expects the firm generates sufficient cash flow and has ample resources to meet its debt obligations, capital expenditure requirements, potential acquisitions, and shareholder returns. 

Bulls Say 

  • Intel is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world and holds the lion’s share of the PC and server processor markets. The firm has sustained its position at the forefront of technology by investing heavily in R&D, and this trend should continue. 
  • Intel has made a string of savvy acquisitions to build its Artificial Intelligence and automotive offerings, including Altera, Mobileye, Habana Labs, and Movidius. 
  • The data center group has indirectly benefited from the proliferation of mobile devices. Server processor sales will be the main driver of growth in the near future

Company Profile

Intel typically operates with ample liquid cash reserves, which we believe is justified as an offset to the semiconductor industry’s cyclical nature in general and Intel’s higher capital intensity in particular. At the end of 2020, the firm held about $36.4 billion in total debt and nearly $24 billion in cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and trading assets. We think the firm generates sufficient cash flow and has ample resources to meet its debt obligations, capital expenditure requirements, potential acquisitions, and shareholder returns.Intel’s dominant manufacturing operations require massive capital outlays for expensive equipment, fab construction, and the maintenance of a clean room environment. Morningstar analyst estimates utilize historical patterns and the expected progression of Moore’s law to attain an average annual capital expenditure of $14 billion over the next five years. Of this outlay, 70% is for maintaining existing capacity, with the remainder used for process development for the 7-nanometer process node and beyond.

 (Source: Morning Star)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Raising Moderna’s FVE to $182 on Pipeline Progress and Additional 2022 COVID-19 Vaccine Sales

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Business Strategy and Outlook

Moderna’s mRNA technology has gained rapid validation as sales of its COVID-19 vaccine soar in 2021, but we think the firm has yet to secure a narrow economic moat around its business, largely due

to uncertainties tied to an evolving virus and the changing competitive landscape for innovative vaccines.

In a record-breaking span of just 11 months, Moderna created, developed, manufactured, and got regulatory authorization for mRNA-1273, a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine that is one of the first two mRNA vaccines ever authorized (alongside Pfizer/BioNTech’s BNT162b2). The pandemic accelerated Moderna’s evolution into a commercial-stage biotech, and we expect that the firm’s ramp-up in manufacturing and clinical know-how will pave the way for faster timelines for additional programs. Moderna’s mRNA platform, involving rapid design and similar manufacturing across programs, allows the company to pursue multiple programs in parallel. Moderna also retains full rights to most of its programs, although key partnerships with Merck and AstraZeneca help support its efforts in oncology.

We expect the firm to report $17 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021, with $20 billion in sales in 2022 as demand for first doses begins to decline but demand for boosters expands. We see potential for sustained revenue in the low-single-digit billions annually if higher-risk populations continue to receive annual vaccines beyond the pandemic, although there is high uncertainty around the number of long-term competitors (including new mRNA players) and pricing.

Moderna’s most advanced program outside COVID-19 is for cytomegalovirus, a leading cause of birth defects, but several other vaccines are in earlier trials, targeting other respiratory viruses like RSV and influenza. We see each of these as more than $1 billion annual sales opportunities. Moderna is also pursuing therapeutic cancer vaccines with Merck, as well as regenerative therapeutics and intratumoral immuno-oncology therapies with AstraZeneca, which we include in our valuation. We recently included Moderna’s leading secreted or intracellular protein programs in our valuation, as they have entered early-stage development.

Financial Strength

Moderna raised $1.85 billion through two equity offerings in 2020, ending the year with cash and investments of $5.25 billion. This added substantially to the firm’s IPO proceeds in 2018 of $563 million. Given Moderna’s massive expected COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 and lack of debt, the firm’s

financial strength looks solid.

Bulls Say’s

  • The stellar efficacy and safety profile of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine offered rapid validation of the firm’s mRNA technology
  • Its mRNA technology could allow the firm to compete in a wide range of therapeutic areas, ranging from other prophylactic vaccines (like influenza and other viruses) to enzyme replacement (various rare diseases) to cancer
  • Moderna’s cash infusion from COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021, as well as newly established large-scale manufacturing facilities, positions the firm to accelerate timelines for new pipeline programs

Company Profile 

Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm’s mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized inthe United States in December 2020. Moderna had 24 mRNA development programs as of early 2021, with 13 of these in clinical trials. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Expert Insights Technology Stocks

Change in elective surgery restrictions have minimal long-term impact for Ramsay

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Business Strategy and Outlook

Ramsay’s strong Australian business enabled its global acquisitions but the market fundamentals offshore are far less attractive. The key differentiator is the proportion of private health insurance, or PHI, coverage of the population. According to data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, 45% of the Australian population have PHI resulting in roughly 80% of Ramsay’s Australian revenue flowing from PHI versus 20% or less in its other geographies. This has a direct impact on profits earned as providers are price-takers in publicly outsourced work.

Despite various pandemic pressures weighing on Ramsay, the firm is increasing its capital expenditure to better position itself for long-term growth. The key areas of investment are brownfield and greenfield expansions in Australia, and digital overseas. Ramsay is focusing on increasing its day surgery capacity as the proportion of day surgeries at Australian private hospitals has increased to roughly 65% from 60% in the last 10 years. The firm also sees opportunity for integrated care and higher-margin non-surgical ancillary services such as rehabilitation and mental health.

Financial Strength

Ramsay’s planned acquisition of Spire Healthcare in 2021 didn’t eventuate leaving the company in a stronger financial position as a result with pro forma net debt/EBITDA pre-AASB 16 of 0.7 at July 2021. However, due to the pandemic weighing on earnings, the acquisition of Elysium, and sustained elevated planned capital expenditures, it is forecasted leverage to peak at 3.3 in fiscal 2022 but fall under 2.0 by fiscal 2026. As Ramsay Australia owns most of its properties, the group has extra optionality if ever capital constrained. While free cash flow conversion of earnings averaged 98% over the last five years, it was boosted in fiscal 2020 due to the French government prefunding all outsourced work which contributed to a working capital inflow of AUD 526 million.

The dividend is largely underpinned by the Australian business.The capital structure includes AUD 252 million of Convertible Adjustable Rate Equity Securities, or CARES, on which Ramsay pays a fully franked dividend equivalent to a margin of 4.85% over the 180-day bank bill swap rate after tax which is high in the current funding environment. The CARES funding is not material in terms of the capital structure of the business overall, but it is unclear to us why the securities were allowed to step up to this high rate rather than being refinanced given the availability of cheaper debt. Review of the largest CARES holders doesn’t reveal any material related parties.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Ramsay boasts leading market positions in most of its geographies and benefits from negotiating power with payers and cost advantage derived from scale. 
  • Ramsay is a stable compounder with its healthcare services being highly defensive and underpinned by strong demographic factors. 
  • Its premium Australian business is being diluted by lower-margin and lower-return businesses overseas with higher exposures to publicly outsourced work and associated regulatory risk.

Company Profile 

Ramsay Health Care is one of the largest private healthcare providers in the world, with over 460 facilities across 10 countries. The key markets in which it operates are Australia, France, the U.K., and Sweden. It is the largest private hospital group in each of these markets except for the U.K. where it ranks fifth. Ramsay Sante, which operates the European regions other than the U.K., is a 52.5%-owned subsidiary of Ramsay Health Care. The company typically earns about 60% of consolidated earnings in Australia and 30% in France. Ramsay Health Care undertakes both private and publicly funded healthcare.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Soaring Lithium Price, a Material Fair Wind for Mineral Resources

Business Strategy and Outlook

Mineral Resources grew significantly following listing on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2006. Demand for crushing and screening services grew strongly with iron ore output from the major Western Australian iron ore miners. Mineral Resources also rapidly expanded its own iron ore mining business, though lacking the integrated rail and port infrastructure of major competitors and at a competitive disadvantage. More recent diversification into lithium production at Mt Marion and the Wodgina mine has sustained earnings momentum. 

The financial record to now is impressive and the balance sheet is unleveraged. 

In fiscal 2010, the company was a mining service provider and minerals producer as now. But disclosure extended to just iron ore production tonnage, and segment earnings. Mining Services and Processing contributed 96% of group EBIT. Step forward to fiscal 2020 and Mineral Resources has materially improved its level of financial disclosure, and the greater depth of clients and number of project sites also reduces risk.

 The business model of the company is demonstrably sustainable. The volume-linked crushing and screening business should be somewhat more resilient to commodity price weakness. Mineral Resources’ mining services business builds, owns, and operates crushing and screening plants on behalf of mining customers. Despite contributing only 40% of group EBIT, Mining Services is core. Twelve 5 to 15 million tonne per year crushing and screening plants are owned and operated on 12 sites. 

Clients substantially include the largest mining companies and contract books have been renewed over time leading to volume growth. Power is supplied by mining companies and margins are comparatively stable. Bolstering growth in the core business centred on mining services around Australian bulk commodities, Mineral Resources will selectively own and develop its own mining operations, with the aim of subsequent sell-down while retaining core processing and screening rights

Financial Strength

Mineral Resources is in strong financial health. Albemarle’s acquisition of a 60% stake in Wodgina lithium instantly expunged net debt in first-half fiscal 2020. From a net debt position of AUD 872 million at end June 2019. Lithium project construction expenditure was at the core of the cash drain. The current circumstance is a return to the usual territory for Mineral Resources, which operated in a position of little to no net debt for at least the eight years to fiscal 2018; a sensible position for a company operating in the volatile mining services space. 

Mineral Resources had faced the key question of what it should do with its cash, with a shrinking pool of growth and investment opportunities in a lower iron ore price environment. A failed investment in Aquila Resources in 2014 attempted to leverage Mineral Resources into Aquila’s West Pilbara Iron Ore Project, and was symptomatic of where Mineral Resources found itself. Booming lithium markets directed the investment decision. Mineral Resources had AUD 595 million in net cash excluding operating leases at end June 2021. 

Bulls Say’s

  •  Mineral Resources grew strongly since listing in 2006.The chairman and managing director have been with the business for over a decade and have meaningful shareholdings.
  • Australian iron ore is mainly purchased by Chinese steel producers, meaning Mineral Resources offers leveraged exposure to Chinese economic growth.
  • Mineral Resources has a recurring base of revenue and earnings from processing infrastructure.
  •  Mineral Resources’ balance sheet is very strong with net cash. This has opened up the opportunity for lithium investments selling into highly receptive markets.

Company Profile 

Mineral Resources listed on the ASX in 2006 following the merger of three mining services businesses. The subsidiary companies were previously owned by managing director Chris Ellison, who remains a large shareholder despite selling down. Operations include iron ore and lithium mining, iron ore crushing and screening services for third parties, and engineering and construction for mining companies. Mining and contracting activity is focused in Western Australia.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Reinitiating Coverage of Ceridian HCM With Narrow Moat, Stable Trend Rating and $80 FVE

Ceridian offers payroll and human capital management solutions via its flagship Dayforce platform, secondary platform Powerpay targeting small businesses in Canada, and remaining legacy Bureau products such as tax services. The company benefits from high customer switching costs, allowing it to retain clients, upsell add-on modules, and earn a steady stream of recurring revenue at a low marginal cost, underpinning our narrow moat rating. Morningstar analysts expect Ceridian’s growing record of performance should help to attract new business, increase market share, and expand into new global markets. The shares currently screen as overvalued, trading at a 30% premium to our fair value estimate.

Ceridian has disrupted incumbent providers and taken share of the expansive and growing HCM market through the appeal of its agile, cloud-based solutions that offer an alternative to legacy on-premises solutions or solutions cobbled together using multiple databases or platforms. The company derives most of its revenue from Dayforce, which is geared to larger enterprises wishing to streamline complex human resources operations across multiple jurisdictions on a unified platform and leverage the platform’s scalable infrastructure. Dayforce offers real-time continuous payroll calculation and, as a natural extension, on-demand pay. Leveraging this functionality, Ceridian introduced Dayforce Wallet in 2020, which allows clients’ employees to load their net earned wages to a prepaid Mastercard, generating interchange fee revenue for Ceridian when purchases are made. While this innovation is being replicated by competitors, we expect it will create a promising new high-margin revenue stream for Ceridian that leverages the firm’s exposure to millions of employees and their earned wages.

Morningstar analysts estimate revenue to grow at an 18% compound annual rate over the five years to fiscal 2025, driven by mid-single digit industry growth, market share gains, and mid-single digit group revenue per client growth. As per Morningstar analyst perspective, 12% average annual growth in Dayforce recurring revenue per client due to an increasing skew to larger businesses and greater module uptake. This growth will be offset by low single-digit revenue growth per Powerpay client due to minimal price increases and modest module uptake. Across both platforms, Morningstar expects fierce competitive pressures to limit like-for-like pricing growth to low single digits. Over the same period,  expect operating margins to increase to about 14% from less than 1% in a COVID-19-affected 2020 and 9% in a pre-COVID 2019. We anticipate this uplift will be driven by operating leverage from increased scale and higher interest on client funds.

Ceridian has made a tactical shift to target larger businesses and move further upmarket into the large enterprise and global space. While this drives higher revenue per client and exposes the company to a larger pool of client funds, we expect fierce competitive pressures and powerful clients will lead to increased pricing pressure, limiting margin upside potential over the long run. Morningstar analysts assume Ceridian will achieve midcycle operating margins around 31% in 2030, which is comparable with our forecast for wide-moat Workday, which also targets large enterprises with its cloud-based HCM software. By comparison, morningstar analyst forecast wide-moat Paychex, which targets small and midsize clients with significantly lower bargaining power, will achieve mid cycle operating margins of 43%. Ceridian operates in a highly competitive market, and  expect it will need to maintain high levels of investment to ensure that the functionality of its product suite is comparable with peers’ and meets clients’ needs.

Company profile

Ceridian HCM provides payroll and human capital management solutions targeting clients with 100-100,000 employees. Following the 2012 acquisition of Dayforce, Ceridian pivoted away from its legacy on-premises Bureau business to become a cloud HCM provider. As of fiscal 2020, nearly 80% of group revenue was derived from the flagship Dayforce platform geared toward enterprise clients. The remaining revenue is about evenly split between cloud platform Powerpay, targeting small businesses in Canada, and legacy Bureau products.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Gentex’s Balance Sheet Gives the Firm Strength to Handle the Unexpected

Business Strategy and Outlook

Gentex manufactures auto-dimming rear- and side-view mirrors that use electrochromic technology. These mirrors automatically darken to eliminate headlight glare for drivers and have many other applications. With over 1,700 patents worldwide, some valid through 2044, and a dominant 94% market share, up from 77% in 2003, Gentex has a narrow economic moat it should be able to protect for a long time, in our opinion. 

The growth prospects for auto-dimming mirrors look strong. Gentex estimates that in 2018, about 31% of all cars had interior auto-dimming mirrors, and about 13% had at least one exterior auto-dimming mirror. Demand remains healthy with annual revenue growth often exceeding industry vehicle production growth. Growth will come from increased vehicle penetration as more original-equipment manufacturers make the safety benefit of auto-dimming technology available and as Gentex’s research leads to new, advanced-feature mirrors that ultimately become standard products.

Financial Strength

Gentex is in excellent financial shape, with no debt and $270 million of cash on its balance sheet at the end of third-quarter 2021. Cash and investments were about 28% of total assets at that time. The company has ample cash on hand to fund more R&D or a higher dividend if the board chooses. Total cash and investments was $481.6 million, or $2.03 per diluted share. Gentex has been paying a dividend since 2003. Gentex took on $275 million of debt for the HomeLink acquisition which it finished paying off in 2018. In October 2018, Gentex obtained a new $150 million unsecured credit facility that expires in October 2023. 

Gentex can request an additional $100 million on the credit limit under certain conditions. The investments mostly consist of short-term government obligations, blue-chip stocks, and mutual funds. As of March 2018, the company targets cash and investments of $525 million, down from its previous target of $700 million. Management will often just speak in loose terms and say it targets around $500 million.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Auto-dimming technology has applications to other parts of the car like headlights, as well as outside autos such as airplane windows. Although small now, markets outside the auto industry could prove to be very large businesses down the road. 
  • The company’s financial health is so strong that we think Gentex can survive any downturn in the U.S. easier than other auto suppliers can. 
  • Biometrics, surgical room utlraviolet lighting, and electronic toll payments could open up new revenue streams for the company.

Company Profile 

Gentex was founded in 1974 to produce smoke-detection equipment. The company sold its first glare-control interior mirror in 1982 and its first model using electrochromic technology in 1987. Automotive revenue is about 98% of total revenue, and the company is constantly developing new applications for the technology to remain on top. Sales from 2020 totaled about $1.7 billion with 38.2 million mirrors shipped. The company is based in Zeeland, Michigan. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

NetEase capitalizes on the industry shift toward mobile gaming and now focuses on innovation in it

Business Strategy and Outlook:

NetEase started as a Chinese Internet portal in the late 1990s but has now become the second-largest mobile game company in the world. The firm owns one of the most well-known massively multiplayer franchise in China—Fantasy Westward Journey. Over the past decade, NetEase has capitalized on the industry shift toward mobile gaming and now focuses on developing innovative, high-quality, and long-cycle games with a mobile-first approach.

Like its global gaming peers, NetEase maintains a high level of profitability (above 30% operating margin) for its gaming business, thanks to stable revenue from core titles and the steady development of new franchises. The firm is positioned to not only continue capitalizing on the success of Westward Journey titles, but to also keep diversifying its revenue into new franchises. While games will remain NetEase’s core cash flow driver, the firm’s investments in other areas (music streaming, online education, e-commerce) also offer long-term potential.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate of the stock is USD 139.00, which implies forward 2022 P/E of 32, below the above 40 times earnings multiples demanded by global peers like Take-Two and Electronic Arts.

NetEase has a rock-solid balance sheet. At the end of December 2020, the company had CNY 93 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, and time deposits under current assets. There was also a restricted cash balance of CNY 3.1 billion under current assets. This compares with only CNY 19.5 billion of short-term debt. Thanks to its strong net cash position and strong operating cash flow that amounted to 137% of net income in 2020, the firm should have no problem funding its gaming business and innovative businesses. However, NetEase has returned capital to shareholders via dividends and has set quarterly dividends at 20%-30% of its anticipated net income after tax in each quarter starting in the second quarter of 2019.

Bulls Say:

  • NetEase’s expertise in asymmetric multiplayer (Identity V and Dead by Daylight) would allow it to capitalize on future opportunities in this genre. 
  • The firm has done an admirable job at organically expanding into Japan, and it is likely that it will be able to replicate same success in Europe and the U.S. 
  • NetEase Music could see stronger user growth now that Tencent Music was told to end its exclusive licensing agreements with music labels on anti-trust grounds.

Company Profile:

NetEase, which started on an Internet portal service in 1997, is a leading online services provider in China. Its key services include online/mobile games, cloud music, media, advertising, email, live streaming, online education, and e-commerce. The company develops and operates some of the China’s most popular PC client and mobile games, and it partners with global leading game developers, such as Blizzard Entertainment and Mojang (a Microsoft subsidiary).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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NextDC benefits from industry megatrends

Business Strategy and outlook

NextDC is well-placed to benefit from industry megatrends, including the growing adoption of cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, leading to exponential growth in data creation. As per Morningstar analyst forecast NextDC will materially expand its capacity over our 10-year forecast period in order to meet growing demand for data center services. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation of many businesses and expedited demand for co-location data centers. Large numbers of employees have made the transition to remote working arrangements, leading to a greater reliance on digital technologies such as video conferencing and cloud-based platforms, and reducing the need to store servers at a centralized location. Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, it is expected that remote working levels will remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels, resulting in continued demand for digital technologies and potentially less need for physical office space. This shift has increased demand for data centers and hybrid and multi cloud data storage solutions, which are supported by co-location data centers like NextDC. Hybrid solutions, which combine traditional infrastructure with cloud storage, can improve business outcomes through reduced latency and costs, increased security and resilience, and the flexibility to connect to multiple clouds based on business needs. These solutions provide greater flexibility and allow businesses to scale their data storage capacity based on workflow. 

As per Morningstar analyst, interconnection services are becoming increasingly important for NextDC as more businesses make the transition to hybrid cloud storage models. As of fiscal 2021, interconnection revenue contributed 8% of NextDC’s total recurring revenue and this will trend higher over time as its network ecosystem matures.

Financial Strength

NextDC is in sound financial health. The company raised AUD 862 million in fiscal 2020 via an institutional placement and share purchase plan. Proceeds from the equity raising will be used to fund the development of a third Sydney data center and further capacity expansion at its existing and new sites. Morningstar analyst forecast, gearing, measured as net debt/EBITDA, to deteriorate to above 3.6 times in fiscal 2023 as NextDC continues to invest heavily in portfolio expansion, before recovering from fiscal 2024 as capacity utilization improves. Morningstar analyst forecasted that NextDC will invest about AUD 4.0 billion during the 10 years to fiscal 2031 to grow total power capacity at a CAGR of 16%. It is also expected that NextDC will only consider paying dividends when it has accrued sufficient franking credits, otherwise the capital would be better spent on investments or repaying debt.

Bulls Say

  • NextDC is well placed to benefit from industry megatrends including the growing adoption of cloud computing, the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence leading, to exponential growth in data creation. 
  • The shift to cloud-based services increases the need for enterprises to connect to numerous cloud providers and the connection is fastest, safest and most efficient in a co-located data center. 
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation of many businesses and is leading to increased demand for cloud-based services.

Company Profile

NextDC is an Australia data center developer and operator with a focus on co-location and interconnection among enterprise and government customers, global cloud and information and communications technology, or ICT, providers, and telecommunication networks. NextDC provides physical space, cooling, power, and security services and offers optional technical and project management support. The company’s tenants house their servers within the data center and can connect to each other via physical and virtual connections.

 (Source: Morning Star)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Sectors Technology Technology Stocks

SAP reported solid 2Q21 result with revenue of €6.7bn

Investment Thesis :

  • Leading market share positions in on-premise enterprise resources planning (ERP) and on-premise customer relationship management (CRM) markets with customers in over 180 countries and strong brand awareness. 
  • The market is undervaluing SAP’s CRM business (relative to its peer group such as Salesforce.com).
  • Support revenues and Cloud subscriptions provide recurring revenue, which gives SAP a defensive profile. 
  •  Competent management team. 
  •  Strong operating and free cash flow generation with attractive dividend policy (payout ratio of at least 40%)

Key Risks

  • The Slower take-up for HANA and S/4HANA. 
  • Deteriorating sentiment if the economy and IT spending weakens. 
  • Market share loss in software revenue driven by cloud migration. 
  •  Aggressive M&A with risk of overpaying. 
  • Additional opex spending dampening margin expansion. 
  •  Key-man risk due to management changes. 
  • Competition from other established players like Microsoft, Salesforce.com and Oracle

Key highlights of FY 2021

Ongoing momentum in the business saw management slightly raised the bottom end of their previous guidance, which may have disappointed the market (i.e. investors may have been expecting a bigger bump up). Management’s 2021 outlook (non-IFRS @ CC): Cloud Revenue €9.3 – 9.5bn (prev. €9.2 – 9.5bn), up +15-18%; Cloud and Software Revenue €23.6 – 24.0bn (prev. €23.4 – 23.8bn), up +2-3%; and Operating Profit €7.95 – 8.25bn (prev. €7.8 – 8.2bn), flat to -4%. Management reiterated their operating cash flow guidance of approx. €6.0bn and FCF above €4.5bn.

2Q21 results highlights : Relative to the pcp: 

  • Total group revenue of €6.7bn was up +3% (in CC terms), driven by Cloud up +17%, Software licenses and support down -2% (Software Licenses down -13%, Software Support up +1%), Cloud and Software up +5% and Services down -7%. SaaS/PaaS cloud revenue (excluding Intelligent Spend) was up+25% (CC). Software Licenses were down -13% (CC) as expected and were ahead of expectations. Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) was up +20% (CC terms) to €7.8bn, with SAP S/4HANA CCB up +48% to €1.1bn.
  • From a region perspective, Asia Pacific & Japan revenue was solid (Cloud up +23% in CC; Cloud & Software up +6% in CC) while Americas (Cloud up +12% in CC; Cloud & Software up +5% in CC) and EMEA (Cloud up +23% in CC; Cloud & Software up +5% in CC) also saw good growth. Operating profit of €1.9bn was down -2% on pcp, but up +3% in CC terms. Operating margins were down -30bps to 28.8%

Company Profile:

SAP SE (SAP) is a global software and service provider headquartered in Walldorf, Germany, operating through two segments: Applications, Technology & Services segment, and the SAP Business Network segment. The Applications, Technology & Services segment is engaged in the sale of software licenses, subscriptions to its cloud applications, and related services and the SAP Business Network segment includes its cloud-based collaborative business networks and services relating to the SAP Business Network (including cloud applications, professional services and education services). SAP is the market leader in enterprise application software and also the leading analytics and business intelligence company, with the Company reporting that more than 77% of all transaction revenue globally touches an SAP system.

(Source: Banyantree)

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