Category: Technology Stocks

Tech stocks refer to any stock involved in the technology sector, from semiconductor producers to software providers. Tech stocks are often a leading indicator for the economy and the stock market. Technology stocks generally follow the pattern of more innovation in the market & new development of product.

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Technology Stocks

Ritchie Bros. Puts a Spotlight on its Services Business at its Investor Day

Digital tablet display the stock market data

Business Strategy & Outlook

Ritchie Bros. provides auction and marketplace services for used heavy equipment. The company’s strong auction liquidity attracts both buyers and sellers to its network. The Ritchie Bros. will continue to be one of the top players in the asset disposition market. The network effects present in its business have consistently delivered higher average selling prices for consignors (or sellers) and provided buyers a wide range of equipment to choose from. For both parties, Ritchie Bros. drives significant amount of value, which has allowed it to monetize its network effects and develop a strong competitive positioning.

Ritchie Bros.’ strategy going forward is to move its business from being primarily transaction based to more solutions based. It has developed digital solutions that range from inventory management solutions for buyers to market intelligence tools for sellers. The company is also pushing to provide more services to customers, such as equipment inspections, storage, and advertising, in addition to asset valuation services. While these services have the potential to drive higher profitability, the it will be challenging to drive adoption rates higher in the near term. Customers will need to be convinced of the value that add-on services can bring to their buying or selling experience.  The company has exposure to attractive tailwinds in the near term. Construction equipment makes up more than half of the equipment sold through Ritchie Bros., with the balance in transportation and agriculture equipment. The near term looks bright for each of these markets, meaning Ritchie Bros. will likely see increased activity on its marketplace. In economic upturns, equipment owners often opt to sell their older equipment to buy newer ones. Ritchie Bros. also benefits when markets are pressured, and equipment owners look to increase their liquidity levels through asset disposals (such as bankruptcies). The used equipment supply will continue to loosen in the near term and lead to greater auction liquidity for Ritchie Bros.

Financial Strengths

Ritchie Bros.’ total debt at the end of 2021 stood at $1.7 billion, which equates to a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4. The company issued new debt (over $900 million) in 2021 to fund its acquisition of Euro Auctions, however, the company intends to issue redemption notices on the new debt, given its decision to discontinue the deal. Historically, the company’s total debt has ranged between $100 million-$250 million. In 2016, Ritchie Bros.’ total debt rose to $619 million (up from $110 million in 2015) after it issued notes with a principal of $500 million (due in 2025) to partially fund its acquisition of Iron Planet. The company can generate $400 million in free cash flow in the midcycle year, supporting its ability to bring debt levels down.

Ritchie Bros. also provides financial services to its customers by matching them with lenders (it receives a fee for acting as broker). Management has expressed interest in expanding its financial services to get access to assets that will likely be sold through bankruptcies. The Ritchie Bros. will work to leverage its partnership with Gordon Brothers, an investment firm focused on working with businesses dealing with insolvency issues. By using its excess capital, Ritchie Bros. can potentially bring additional assets to its marketplace to be sold off, but this is more of a long-term opportunity rather than an immediate value driver. In terms of liquidity, the company can meet its near-term debt obligations given its strong cash balance. The company’s cash position as of 2021 stood at $326 million on its balance sheet. One can also find comfort in its ability to tap into available lines of credit to meet any short-term needs. The company has access to $525 million in credit facilities. It maintains a strong financial position with a clean balance sheet.

Bulls Say

  • Increasing construction activity could lead equipment owners to buy new machines and sell their used equipment through Ritchie Bros.’ auctions, substantially boosting its revenue growth.
  • Equipment owners may feel more comfortable putting their machines up for sale as the economic environment improves, strengthening Ritchie Bros.’ auction liquidity.
  • Ritchie Bros.’ success operating in a fully online environment during the pandemic might convince more buyers to leave other machinery-focused websites for its auctions, which could boost the company’s profitability.

Company Description

Ritchie Bros. operates the world’s leading marketplace for heavy equipment. The company started as a live auctioneer of industrial equipment, since then it has greatly expanded its operations to include the sale of construction, agricultural, oilfield, and transportation equipment. Ritchie Bros. operates over 40 live auction sites in more than 12 countries, along with online marketplaces, including iron Planet, Marketplace-E, and GovPlanet. Its agricultural auctions are frequently much smaller venues and can include liquidations of single farms. The company holds over 300 auctions yearly and sells over $5 billion worth of equipment.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Technology Stocks

Wide-Moat James Hardie’s Fiscal 2022 Largely as Expected; Shares Look Attractive

Business Strategy & Outlook

The supportive of Hardie’s strategy. Hardie’s primary strategic objectives are to expand fibre cement’s share of the U.S. exterior siding market and to shift its sales mix to higher-margin products. The goals are mutually reinforcing and achievable. Hardie has been a key beneficiary of the secular decline of vinyl siding owing to the durability advantages of fibre cement. Hardie estimates vinyl’s share of the U.S. exterior siding market has declined from approximately 40% in 2008 to around 25% in fiscal 2021. This trend to persist with Hardie continuing to be a major beneficiary. The Hardie will be able to leverage its research and development capabilities to penetrate other siding categories such as brick, stone, and stucco. Hardie’s fibre cement product innovations can mimic the appearance of these product categories while being less labor-intensive to install than brick and stone and resolving the performance issues of stucco. Hardie is tailoring its product innovations towards higher margin product categories by focusing on the aesthetic performance of the product, generating an emotional attachment from the consumer, and stimulating less price elastic demand. This strategy is supplemented by Hardie’s marketing campaign which aims to communicate Hardie’s value proposition directly to homeowners. Overall, the Hardie will be successful in continuing to expand fiber cement’s share of the exterior siding market while simultaneously shifting its sales mix towards higher margin products.

The Hardie’s intention to further integrate operations with customers. Customer integration provides the facilitation of knowledge between Hardie and its customers, unlocking working capital benefits and providing opportunities for strategic initiatives. The Hardie’s entrenched customer relationships as a key aspect of the business’ wide economic moat.

Financial Strengths

Hardie declared a final dividend of USD 30 cents per share, taking its fiscal 2022 dividends to USD 70 cents per share. Dividends will be unfranked for Australian taxation purposes. An annual payout ratio of 60% of underlying earnings, the midpoint of Hardie’s 50%-70% targeted payout range.

Hardie runs a conservative balance sheet with leverage— defined as net debt/adjusted EBITDA (excluding the impact of asbestos transactions)—typically within a targeted range of 1-2. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA stood at 0.8 at the end of fiscal 2022. Hardie’s asbestos-related liability—the AICF trust—has a gross carrying value at fiscal 2022 year-end of USD 1.1 billion and remains an overhang. However, payments to fund the liability are capped at 35% of operating cash flow after

adjusting for asbestos liability-related payments. While this reduces cash flows available to shareholders over the medium term, the liability shouldn’t constrain the business’ ability to reinvest within itself.  The liability being extinguished within the next decade, likely by fiscal 2027.

Bulls Say

  • James Hardie is poised to benefit from the secular growth of fibre cement siding at the expense of vinyl, brick, stone, and stucco.
  • James Hardie’s strategy of shifting its sales mix to higher-margin products will expand its EBIT margins and enhance return on invested capital.
  • James Hardie’s wide economic moat should protect its ability to earn above its cost of capital over the economic cycle.

Company Description

James Hardie is a producer of fiber cement construction materials. Hardie predominantly serves the residential construction industry with its flagship fiber cement siding product range. The group’s key segment is North America, where it derives around 70% of group earnings from the sale of fiber cement exterior siding and 10% from the sale of fiber cement interior boards. In 2021, the group acquired Fermacell, an exterior and interior products business headquartered in Germany and with operations throughout Europe.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Technology Stocks

Caesars has realized over $1 billion in combined revenue and cost synergies from its merger with Eldorado

Business Strategy and Outlook

As a result of the acquisition of the legacy Caesars business by Eldorado (closed July 2020), it is estimated Caesars holds more than a 10% revenue share of the domestic casino gaming market; this represents around 100% of the company’s total EBITDA. The acquisition roughly doubled the company’s U.S. portfolio to around 50 properties while lifting its loyalty membership to over 60 million from 55 million (loyalty stood at 65 million at the end of 2021). Caesars has realized over $1 billion in combined revenue and cost synergies from its merger with Eldorado, representing around a 30% increase to pro forma 2019 EBITDAR. Before this recent combination, legacy Eldorado successfully integrated the Isle and Tropicana acquisitions in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with both deals driving about a 30% return on investment, based on calculations. Despite this successful acquisition record, it’s d believe Las Vegas and other U.S. gaming regions contribute to a moat for Caesars. U.S. gaming demand is lower than in Asian regions like Macao and Singapore, where the propensity to gamble is much higher. Also, the 1,000 commercial and tribal casinos in the U.S. serve a total population of 330 million, well in excess of the 41 and 2 casinos found in Macao and Singapore, respectively, with Chinese and Singaporean populations of 1.4 billion and 5.9 million, respectively. Further, supply growth in U.S. gaming is increasing in 2021-23, with two resorts opening in Las Vegas that add a mid-single-digit percentage to market room supply. This compares with negligible additions in either Macao or Singapore, where it is seen there are no additional licenses for the foreseeable future.

Despite this successful acquisition record, it’s not believed that Las Vegas and other U.S. gaming regions contribute to a moat for Caesars. U.S. gaming demand is lower than in Asian regions like Macao and Singapore, where the propensity to gamble is much higher. Also, the 1,000 commercial and tribal casinos in the U.S. serve a total population of 330 million, well in excess of the 41 and 2 casinos found in Macao and Singapore, respectively, with Chinese and Singaporean populations of 1.4 billion and 5.9 million, respectively. Further, supply growth in U.S. gaming is increasing in 2021-23, with two resorts opening in Las Vegas that add a mid-single-digit percentage to market room supply. This compares with negligible additions in either Macao or Singapore, where there are no additional licenses for the foreseeable future.

Financial Strength

Caesars’ debt levels are elevated. In 2019, excluding financial lease obligations, legacy Caesars’ debt/adjusted EBITDA measured a hefty 7.8 times, while legacy Eldorado came in at 3.7 times. It is believed reasonable to include financial lease obligations in the long-debt responsibility of the combined companies (which merged in July 2020). Caesars’ debt/adjusted EBITDA can be seen reaching 8.5 times in 2022 and then 6.9 times in 2023 as global leisure and travel market demand continue to recover from the pandemic, aided by company cost and revenue synergies that is estimated to total over $1 billion. The $7.6 billion are in free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) and it is expected that in 2022-26 is focused on reducing debt levels and investing in the digital sports and iGaming markets, with share repurchases and dividends not occurring until 2025. Caesars has no meaningful debt maturity until 2024, when $4.8 billion is scheduled to come due. That said, EBIT interest coverage is on the thinner side, the forecasted ratio is at only 2.0 on average the next five years. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Caesars’ best-of-breed management stands to generate cost and revenue synergies from its merger with Eldorado. 
  • Caesars has the largest property (around 50 domestic casinos versus roughly 20 for MGM) and loyalty presence (65 million members versus MGM’s roughly high-30 million), which presents cross-selling opportunities. 
  • It can be seen that Caesars’ domestic properties are well positioned to benefit from the $6.2 billion U.S. sports betting revenue opportunity in 2024.

Company Profile 

Caesars Entertainment includes around 50 domestic gaming properties across Las Vegas (50% of 2021 EBITDAR before corporate and digital expenses) and regional (63%) markets. Additionally, the company hosts managed properties and digital assets, the latter of which produced material EBITDA losses in 2021. Caesars’ U.S. presence roughly doubled with the 2020 acquisition by Eldorado, which built its first casino in Reno, Nevada, in 1973 and expanded its presence through prior acquisitions to over 20 properties before merging with legacy Caesars. Caesars’ brands include Caesars, Harrah’s, Tropicana, Bally’s, Isle, and Flamingo. Also, the company owns the U.S. portion of William Hill (it plans to sell the international operation in 2022), a digital sports betting platform.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Technology Stocks

Five9 Makes Investment In AI Technology And Public Cloud To Capitalize On Strong Operating Leverage

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Five9 provides cloud-native contact center software that enables digital customer service, sales, and marketing engagement. A long growth runway and massive market opportunity is projected but also expect no-moat Five9 to require a high degree of investment activity moving forward as it squares off against larger competitors. Five9’s Virtual Contact Center, or VCC, platform combines core telephony functionality, omnichannel engagement capabilities, and various software modules into a unified cloud contact-center-as-a-service, or CCaaS, platform. Five9’s artificial intelligence and automation portfolio supplements and enhances the firm’s core CCaaS offerings, including solutions for digital self-service, agent assist technology, and workflow automation. VCC is expected to become increasingly critical for enabling omnichannel interactions amid a secular acceleration of digital-first customer engagement. 

With only 15% to 20% of contact center agents in the cloud, the residual opportunity around uncaptured communication data is significant. The increasing automation of contact center labor also presents an additional opportunity for Five9 and expect the firm’s rapidly growing AI and automation portfolio to enable both scale and efficiency gains for customers’ call center operations. Attach rates for these solutions are rising within each tier of customers, and higher attach rates in incrementally larger enterprises have been observed, a positive as the company advances its penetration in the upmarket. Reflecting the high utility businesses derived from the firm’s offerings, Five9 reports a net retention rate in excess of 120%. This expansion reflects both an increasing monetization of existing customers as well as the capture of new customers— principally driven by the migration of contact centers to the cloud. Nonetheless, the positive outlook has been tempered as heightening competition in the cloud contact center space has been noticed, with the emergence of natively built CCaaS offerings from other industry titans such as Zoom, Twilio, and Amazon.

Financial Strengths:

Five9 is in a decent financial position. As of March 2022, Five9 held $477.7 million in cash and short-term investments versus $737.9 million in debt. In May 2018, Five9 issued $258.8 million in 0.125% convertible senior notes, due 2023 and convertible at $40.82 per share. As of March 2022, approximately $2.3 million of the 2023 notes remained outstanding. In June 2020, Five9 issued an additional $747.5 million in 0.5% convertible senior notes, due 2025, convertible at $134.34 per share, and entirely outstanding as of March 2022. While there are no material concerns about Five9’s ability to finance this debt, the firm is expected to require future financing given the liquidity imbalance. 

Five9 has yet to achieve GAAP profitability, as the company remains focused on reinvesting excess returns back into the company, primarily on an organic basis, to build out the platform and enhance future growth prospects. Five9 has invested heavily in internal innovation in recent years, building a sophisticated AI and automation portfolio in sales and marketing to build an enterprise-specific direct sales team in its professional services organization to enable an enterprise-heavy go-to-market motion and its public cloud to enable international growth. Five9 does not pay a dividend, nor repurchase stock, and for a growing company within an increasingly competitive market, an appropriate strategy would be the company focusing capital allocation on reinvestments for growth. Healthy growth in free cash flow is expected as industry tailwinds around digital transformations lead to long-term growth for Five9. Five9 reached non-GAAP profitability in 2017, posting both a positive non-GAAP operating margin and positive non-GAAP earnings from then on. As the company scales, non-GAAP operating margins are expected to reach into the low-40% range at the end of the 10-year forecast period, up from 14% in 2021. These positive results should translate to profitability on a GAAP basis by 2025. 

Bulls Say:

  • Five9 has strong user retention metrics, with net dollar retention above 120%. 
  • As the firm continues to expand its growing AI and automation portfolio, Five9 should benefit as automation of contact center labor will enable a larger incremental market opportunity, and AI-based technology commands a higher ASP per seat.
  • Five9 has a large residual market opportunity, with only about 15% to 20% of contact center agents having moved to the cloud so far.

Company Description:

Five9 provides cloud-native contact center software that enables digital customer service, sales, and marketing engagement. The company’s Virtual Contact Center platform combines core telephony functionality, omnichannel engagement capabilities, and various software modules into a unified cloud contact-center-as-a-service, or CCaaS, platform. Five9’s artificial intelligence and automation portfolio supplements and enhances the firm’s core CCaaS offerings, including solutions for digital self-service, agent assist technology, and workflow automation. Five9 also offers workforce optimization products that optimize call center efficiency through workforce management solutions, manage interaction quality, and track agent performance.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Change of Analyst for Boral; Our FVE Decreased 9% but Shares Remain a Bargain

Business Strategy & Outlook

The broadly supportive of Boral’s strategy. Boral’s strategic priorities revolve around four key pillars. The first pillar is largely complete and involves refocusing Boral’s operations on its Australian construction materials business through divestments of noncore assets. Divestments include USG Boral, the North American building products and fly ash businesses, and Meridian Brick. Boral’s second strategic priority is its transformation program, which is aiming to add up to 250 million in annual EBIT to the Australian business net inflation. The third pillar involves decarbonizing Boral’s operations. The final pillar focuses on exploring and commercializing innovations over the long term. The Boral has divested noncore business units and is looking to remove inefficiencies from its Australian operations. Profitably decarbonizing Boral’s operations is likely to be a drawn-out effort but is appropriate give the increasing focus on environmental, social, and governance factors in investment appraisal.

The medium-term outlook for Boral is reasonably strong. Boral derives around two thirds of group revenue from infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects such as roads, highways, subdivisions, bridges, and commercial buildings. The remaining one third of revenue is largely from residential construction activity across detached housing, apartments, and renovations. Buoyed by relatively strong macroeconomic conditions and favorable monetary and fiscal policy, the pipeline of construction and building projects is healthy and should underpin solid demand for Boral’s construction materials.

 However, Boral’s outlook is not free of challenges. The combination of a strong construction pipeline and limited migration of skilled workers during the coronavirus pandemic is expected to result in raw material and labour shortages. These headwinds have the potential to exacerbate cost pressures while increasing lead times for existing projects and/or halting projects altogether.

Financial Strengths

Boral’s balance sheet is in a strong position. Divestments of noncore operations including USG Boral, the North American building products and fly ash businesses, Meridian Brick, and Australian Timber, generated more than USD 4 billion in proceeds. Following AUD 3.1 billion in capital returns to shareholders throughout fiscal 2022, a modest net debt position of approximately AUD 200 million at year-end (including lease liabilities).

The Boral’s targeted level of leverage is manageable. In the longer term, Boral is seeking to maintain a net debt range of 2 times to 2.5 times EBITDA. An average dividend payout ratio of 70% over our forecast horizon, at the upper end of management’s 50%-70% target. The Boral will appropriately determine ordinary dividend payments subject to its financial position and broader construction market conditions.

Bulls Say

  • A strong pipeline of construction projects will stimulate demand for Boral’s construction materials over the medium term.
  • Boral’s transformation program will expand the profitability of the Australian operations and increase return on invested capital.
  • Boral’s divestments of noncore businesses leave management free to focus on generating value from the core Australian operations.

Company Description

Boral is an Australian vertically integrated building materials company with operations across quarries, cement, concrete, and asphalt. Having recently divested its noncore operations including its North American building products and fly ash businesses, USG Boral, and Meridian Brick, Boral’s operations are now focused on the Australian construction market.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Magna International Is a Well-Diversified Auto Parts Supplier With an Entrepreneurial Culture

Business Strategy & Outlook

Magna International is one of the largest, most diversified auto parts suppliers in the world. However, large and diversified is no guarantee of better returns for investors. While breadth in product

and services can be advantageous with regard to cross-selling–commercial activities that bolster content per vehicle and market penetration the only limited evidence that Magna’s diversified strategy has benefited investors in the form of higher margins and returns on invested capital.

Many suppliers focus on a particular area of the vehicle. In sharp contrast, Magna’s capabilities are so broad that the firm could nearly design, develop, supply, and assemble vehicles all on its own. In 2021, the firm contract manufactured roughly 125,600 vehicles, generating $6.1 billion in revenue and $287 million in adjusted EBIT for a margin of 4.7%. While Magna’s Complete Vehicle segment has a growth opportunity with startup electric vehicle companies, the operation is highly capital intensive with limited margin, constraining return on invested capital. Diversifying into so many areas increases the risk that management resources become spread too thin, allocation of capital resources may be less

than optimal, and the firm becomes less effective at developing expertise in any one area

 Magna is able to generate long-term excess returns on invested capital if its product offering was more focused but its customer base and geographical manufacturing footprint were better diversified. Everyone would also like to see more disclosure regarding research and development, especially with certain parts of the business focused on powertrain electrification and autonomous technologies. Even though Magna will benefit from these industry disruptive technologies, the degree of Magna’s product diversity dampens consolidated top-line growth and ROIC expansion potential from electric powertrain and vehicle autonomy. Even so, the firm’s healthy liquidity and balance sheet are able to support operations through severe industry downturns, such is the case with the coronavirus pandemic and microchip shortage.

Financial Strengths

Magna has a clean balance sheet with limited debt and ample liquidity. With average total debt/total capital at 11% for the past decade, interest expense is low, reducing risk to profits during a customer production downturn like that of the COVID-19 pandemic and the microchip shortage. Even so, the company has an inefficient capital structure, not taking advantage of the tax benefit of interest expense. With limited leverage on the balance sheet, Magna could make a relatively large acquisition if the right opportunity were to present itself. Magna’s capital needs have been primarily funded through equity and cash flow. The company has a $750 million undrawn unsecured revolving line of credit that was amended in December 2021 to mature in December 2022. Magna has a $1 billion U.S.-dollar denominated and a EUR 500 million euro denominated commercial paper programs. Including 2021 year-end cash balance of $2.9 billion, total liquidity, excluding commercial paper programs, is $3.7 billion. Netting cash against debt, net debt/EBITDA at the end of 2021 was 0.3 times.

Bulls Say

  • High switching costs and significant barriers to entry enable sticky market shares.
  • Incremental revenue from contracted new business provides revenue growth slightly above global industry production volume and should bolster operating leverage in the near term.
  • As automakers consolidate purchases with fewer suppliers, large vendors such as Magna are in the best position to gain share because they can offer a wide range of parts, modules, and complete systems.

Company Description

Magna International prides itself on a highly entrepreneurial culture and a corporate constitution that outlines distribution of profits to various stakeholders. This automotive supplier’s product groups include exteriors, interiors, seating, roof systems, body and chassis, powertrain, vision and electronic systems, closure systems, electric vehicle systems, tooling and engineering, and contracted vehicle assembly. Roughly 46% of Magna’s revenue comes from North America while Europe accounts for

approximately 43%.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

United Rentals Benefits From Strong Rental Equipment Demand, Despite Tight Industry Supplies

Business Strategy & Outlook

The United Rentals will continue to be the top player in the equipment rental industry. As the industry leader, the company provides customers better equipment availability and reliability than smaller players. However, many of the equipment brands found in United Rentals’ product catalog can also be found at other competitors, such as Sunbelt Rentals (owned by Ashtead), Herc, and at thousands of other rental companies across North America.

United Rentals has employed an aggressive mergers and acquisitions strategy, completing hundreds of acquisitions over the past two decades. The company to continue rolling in smaller rental companies onto its rental platform, further expanding its geographical reach and fleet categories.  The equipment rental industry is ripe for consolidation and United Rentals will be a beneficiary, but so too will its competitors. The company will likely be competing with other players looking to build scale. In terms of its branch network, United Rentals operates approximately 1,300 rental locations throughout North America, significantly more than the next-largest player, Sunbelt Rentals, which operates over 900 locations in the region. The company is also increasingly extending into the specialty equipment vertical (28% of sales), which includes trench safety, power and HVAC, and fluid solutions.

Finally, the company has exposure to end markets with near-term, attractive tailwinds. The construction and industrial markets will continue to improve from their pandemic lows. Nonresidential construction spending has been depressed, but this trend will reverse over the next few years as economic growth will spur new project development for industrial, retail, hotel, and office markets. The total addressable market for the equipment rental industry will continue to expand as rental penetration increases. More and more contractors are electing to rent general equipment (aerial lifts, forklifts, generators) that are intermittently used on projects. This allows them to save on project costs.

Financial Strengths

United Rentals maintains a sound balance sheet. Total debt at the end of 2021 stood at $9.7 billion, which equates to a net debt/adjusted EBTIDA ratio of 2.2 times. The company can get its net leverage ratio under 2 times over the forecast. This will largely be not only led by the expectations of increasing rental penetration, but also thanks to improving macroeconomic factors, such as higher construction and industrial spending. These factors to boost United Rentals’ adjusted EBITDA. The company’s solid balance sheet gives management the financial flexibility to continue running its growth-focused capital allocation strategy going forward that mostly favors expanding its equipment fleet, particularly specialty equipment.

 United Rentals can generate solid free cash flow throughout the economic cycle. By the midcycle year, and the company to generate nearly $2.7 billion in free cash flow, supporting its ability to return free cash flow to shareholders. Similar to previous years, the United Rentals’ capital allocation strategy to be heavily focused on building out its equipment fleet and making tuck-in acquisitions. The management will continue to buy back shares, but there is no expected dividend to paid out in the near term. In terms of liquidity, the company can meet its near-term debt obligations given its access to credit facilities, approximately $2.6 billion in 2021. The company’s cash position stood at $144 million, which is lower than some of the other companies under the coverage, but the comfort in United Rentals’ ability to liquidate rental equipment on its balance sheet in the event of an economic downturn. In United Rentals maintains a strong financial position supported by a clean balance sheet and strong free cash flow prospects.

Bulls Say

  • Increased equipment rental penetration in North America could result in more general equipment rentals, driving higher revenue growth for United Rentals.
  • Construction and industrial spending may begin to recover from pandemic lows, creating demand for United Rentals’ products.
  • United Rentals’ growing focus on building up its specialty fleet could lead to higher dollar utilization and increased profitability.

Company Description

United Rentals is the world’s largest equipment rental company, and principally operates in the United States and Canada, where it commands approximately 15% share in a highly fragmented market. It serves three end markets: general industrial, commercial construction, and residential construction. Like its peers, United Rentals historically has provided its customers with equipment that was intermittently used, such as aerial equipment and portable generators. As the company has grown organically and through hundreds of acquisitions since it went public in 1997, its catalog (fleet size of $16 billion) now includes a range of specialty equipment and other items that can be rented for indefinitely long time periods.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Smith & Nephew Seeks to Expand Presence in ASCs; Modestly Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate

Business Strategy & Outlook

Impressive innovation has allowed Smith & Nephew to carve out a slice of the orthopedic, sports medicine, and wound-care markets. Though the company is smaller than the dominant orthopedic competitors, it has punched above its weight in terms of introducing meaningful innovation with its pioneering hip resurfacing implant and knee replacements with Verilast technology, which it contends can last for 30 years. These are significant improvements that exceed the evolutionary innovation typically seen in orthopedics.

Nevertheless, as the competitive set consolidates, Smith & Nephew’s position as a midsize competitor leaves it vulnerable as the hospital customer base seeks to reduce vendors to save costs. The firm’s market share–about 10% of hips and knees–translates into a tenuous position. Share shifts in this market are glacial at best, thanks to significant switching costs, and new technology does not necessarily overcome those switching costs. Smith & Nephew’s strong show of meaningful innovation translated into a mere 200-basis-point gain in share over the past decade. This showdown between technical innovation and the stickiness of surgeon preference underscores how difficult it is to induce practitioners to switch. This dynamic and Smith & Nephew’s smaller user base mean the firm could find itself locked out of more hospitals and healthcare systems in the future.

The firm has been aggressively pivoting to reduce its reliance on large-joint replacement with the acquisition of ArthroCare for its arthroscopy and sports medicine presence, concerted efforts to penetrate emerging markets, and the new additions of Osiris Therapeutics for its regenerative products and Leaf Healthcare’s pressure sore-monitoring system. The jury is still out on whether this is enough to allow Smith & Nephew to compete effectively against competitors that continue to grow larger and remain independent. As the market moves gradually toward more vendor consolidation, Smith & Nephew eventually pair up with a larger rival, such as Stryker or Johnson & Johnson, in order to better compete.

Financial Strengths

Thus far, the little to make us nervous about Smith & Nephew’s financial flexibility. While the firm has periodically made acquisitions, it has also generated enough cash to deleverage in relatively quick fashion. For example, following the acquisitions of Osiris in 2019, debt/EBITDA rose to just over 4 times, but has moderated since then. Smith & Nephew can easily meet its interest obligations many times over. Prior to the pandemic, the firm consistently held net debt/EBITDA around 1 time. As with other med tech firms, Smith & Nephew issued debt in 2020 to enhance its cash cushion in the face of uncertainty. With procedure volume resuming, the firm to end the year with net debt/EBITDA around 2.3 times and for further deleveraging in the ensuing years. This still leaves plenty of flexibility for management to leverage up, if management decides to further round out Smith & Nephew’s portfolio in adjacent areas to its core markets. At this point, the firm can fund ongoing operations and support its intention to make regular share repurchases with its cash flow, but it may use debt financing for more large acquisitions.

Bulls Say

  • Smith & Nephew participates in the fast-growing sports medicine arena thanks to its extensive arthroscopy portfolio.
  • A strong arthroscopy presence in ambulatory surgical centers leaves Smith & Nephew well positioned to expand its large joint footprint in that setting.
  • Smith & Nephew has been building out its presence in emerging markets. Considering the obstacles in developed markets that keep it from transforming into a top-tier player, S&N may enjoy greater upside in developing markets.

Company Description

Smith & Nephew designs, manufactures, and markets orthopedic devices, sports medicine and arthroscopic technologies, and wound-care solutions. Roughly 42% of the U.K.-based firm’s revenue comes from orthopedic products, and another 30% is sports medicine and ENT. The remaining 28% of revenue is from the advanced wound therapy segment. Roughly half of Smith & Nephew’s total revenue comes from the United States, just over 30% is from other developed markets, and emerging markets account for the remainder.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Pegasystems’ Management sizes the market at $50 billion, which includes both customer engagement and BPM

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is alleged Pegasystems is well established in the business process management, or BPM, software niche and further benefits from related customer engagement applications. It is anticipated the company to remain a leading provider in the coming years as it moves customers to its new Pega Infinity platform, which unifies customer engagement with automation. It is held that, the model transition was complicated in the early going, but it is moving to the scaling phase where Pegasystems’ financials should begin to improve going forward. High retention and long customer relationships are testament to the company’s switching-cost-driven narrow moat. 

BPM software allows customers to streamline operations by automating business processes. Pegasystems’ no- and low-code platform allows the business user, rather than a software engineer, to automate the workflow in a way that matches the business need. There are a variety of templates for common uses that customers can draw from to further expedite the automation. Users can also draw from any previous work their company has done on the platform, employing chunks of code many times over. This allows for common processes to be written once and used repeatedly, thereby lowering costs and decreasing the time between process or application updates. The software was initially used in call centres. While customer engagement more broadly remains the primary driver, a wide variety of uses involving many complicated business processes have been brought into the fold. Lastly, the software allows for users to “build for change,” meaning once software-driven processes are in place, they can be changed quickly on the fly so that all similar uses are also updated. 

Pegasystems has long been considered a leader in BPM and a contender in other niches. Management sizes the market at $50 billion, which includes both customer engagement and BPM. It is renowned, that the Pega platform is a high-end solution that larger enterprises with a high level of customer interactions would undertake.

Financial Strength

It is probable Pegasystems is financially sound, perhaps with a negative bias in the short term. The model transition to the cloud is now near the halfway point, suggesting that margins either bottomed in 2021 or perhaps will bottom in 2022 and will recover from there, while revenue growth will similarly accelerate and remain more robust for the next several years. It is foreseen by now software investors have had a chance to observe this pattern many times and recognize it for the better model that it is. It is likely, margins will expand and growth will accelerate and return to a more fully formed financial model in 2024. Management, customers, and investors alike all prefer the predictable subscription model over the lumpy perpetual license model. That said, it is accredited that the uncertainty inherent in reinventing the business. As of Dec. 31, 2021, Pegasystems had $363 million in cash and equivalents, with $600 million in face value convertible notes. It is anticipated free cash flow margins will bottom in 2022 and will improve steadily over the next several years. At the heart of this is the familiar transition to a subscription model. No reason can be seen why operating margin will not expand to at least 20% over time, driving free cash flow margins higher as well. It is likely, that it is possible the company will need to complete a nominal capital raise—less than 1% of the market cap, within the next several years as the model normalizes. In terms of capital deployment, Pegasystems pays a dividend and occasionally makes acquisitions. Acquisitions are typically small technology-driven deals. The company pays a $0.03 per share quarterly dividend which totalled approximately $10 million in both 2020 and 2021. It is renowned it is unusual for a smaller publicly traded software company to pay a dividend. Management has repeatedly reiterated it is committed to paying the dividend.

Bulls Say’s

  • The company has long been a leader in BPM, where uses are proliferating in an effort to increase productivity and lower costs. 
  • Pegasystems has a differentiated product with a rule’s engine, process templates, a low-code development platform, robotics, and integrated customer engagement applications. 
  • Moving to a cloud-driven solution should allow for a yearslong path of margin improvement and much better revenue visibility.

Company Profile 

Founded in 1983, Pegasystems provides a suite of solutions for customer engagement and business process automation. The company’s key offering is the Pega Infinity platform, which combines business process automation with customer engagement applications. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Alibaba Increased Its Share Buyback Program to USD 25 Billion From USD 15 Billion

Business Strategy & Outlook

Alibaba BABA is a Big Data-centric conglomerate, with transaction data from its marketplaces and logistics businesses allowing it to move into omnichannel retail, cloud computing, media and entertainment, and online-to-offline services. A strong network effect allows leading e-commerce players to extend into other growth avenues, and nowhere is that more evident than with Alibaba.

Alibaba’s internet services had annual active consumers of 953 million as of September 2021, versus the 1.2 billion online population in September 2021 per Quest mobile and the 1.4 billion population in China. This provides Alibaba with an unparalleled source of data that it can use to help merchants and consumer brands develop personalized mobile marketing and content strategies to expand their target audiences, increase click-through rates and physical store transactions, and bolster return on investment. Alibaba’s marketplace monetization rates have reduced recently, due to increased compliance of antitrust laws, more competition, and weak consumer sentiment. Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD.

While the Taobao/Tmall marketplaces as Alibaba’s core cash flow drivers, AliCloud and globalization offer long-term potential. While AliCloud will remain in investment mode in the medium term, accelerating revenue per user suggests a migration to value-added content delivery and database services that can drive segment margins higher over time. On globalization, third-party merchants are successfully reaching Lazada’s users across Southeast Asia, something that should continue as the company rolls out incremental personalized mobile marketing and content opportunities. While early, the management’s views about Ele.me offering incremental monetization opportunities from Alibaba’s user base.

Financial Strengths

Alibaba is in sound financial health. As of December 2020, the company had CNY 456 billion in cash and unrestricted short-term investments on its balance sheet against CNY 117 billion in short- and long-term bank borrowing and unsecured senior notes. Although Alibaba remains in investment mode, the strong cash flow profile of its e-commerce marketplaces offers it the financial flexibility to continue investing in technology infrastructure and cloud, research, marketing, and user experience

initiatives through its current balance sheet and strong cash flow profile. Additionally, the company has the capacity to add leverage to its capital structure, which could allow it to take advantage of low borrowing rates to fund growth initiatives, introduce a cash dividend when it sees limited investment opportunities with good returns on investment, or repurchase shares. The company to pursue acquisitions that could further improve its ecosystem, including online-to-offline, physical retail, and increased logistic capacity or capabilities.

Bulls Say

  • Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD.
  • Core annual active users on Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces had a retention rate of over 90% for the year ended September 2021.
  • Alibaba’s core commerce (which includes China marketplace-based businesses and other loss-making businesses) adjusted EBITA margin was 26.2%, higher than JD retail’s 2.3% non-GAAP EBIT margin and PDD’s 15.2% non-GAAP EBIT margin for the September quarter of 2021.

Company Description

Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume (CNY 7.5 trillion for the fiscal year ended March 2021). It operates China’s online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer).

Alibaba’s China commerce retail division accounted for 63% of revenue in the September 2021 quarter. Additional revenue sources include China commerce wholesale (2%), international retail/wholesale marketplaces (5%/2%), cloud computing (10%), digital media and entertainment platforms (4%), Cainiao logistics services (5%), and innovation initiatives/other (1%).

(Source: Morningstar)

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