Category: Sectors

Categories
Dividend Stocks

COVID-19 Crisis and Other Issues Have Slowed VF, but Its Brands Provide a Competitive Advantage

Finance and Economy Chart for Dollar Gold Euro Currencies Trading View

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Through dispositions and additions, VF has built a portfolio of strong brands in multiple apparel categories. The three brands that are viewed account for about 80% its sales (Vans, Timberland, and The North Face) as supporting VF’s narrow moat based on a brand intangible asset. Despite short-term disruption from the COVID-19 crisis and economic weakness in China, VF is believed to grow faster than most competitors in the long run and maintain its competitive edge.

The North Face will benefit from its new Future Light waterproof fabric, brand extensions, and expansions of its direct-to-consumer business. VF plans 8%-9% annual growth for The North Face, which may be possible after the coronavirus crisis has passed. It is less certain of VF’s long-term growth targets for Timberland and Dickies of 3%-4% and 5%-6%, respectively, given inconsistent results. At its 2019 investor event, VF targeted a gross margin above 55.5%, an operating margin above 15%, and an ROIC above 20% in fiscal 2024.

Financial Strength:

Although VF is struggling with some product shortages, higher costs, and inconsistent demand for Vans in China, its sales and profit margins have mostly recovered from the worst of the pandemic. Fiscal 2022 sales growth forecast has been lowered to 29% from 30% but adjusted EPS estimate have been held at $3.20. For fiscal 2023, adjusted EPS is adjusted of $3.68 on 7% sales growth. Fair value estimate implies fiscal 2023 price/adjusted earnings and EV/adjusted EBITDA of 18 and 15, respectively. The Kontoor spin-off and the sale of some of VF’s work brands has improved the firm’s margins as its remaining brands have more pricing power than those that have been eliminated. Further, the remaining VF has higher exposure to attractive active and outdoor categories. Gross margins of 56% or higher are forecasted after this fiscal year, well above historical gross margins of below 50%.

Bulls Say:

  • Vans, expected to generate over $4 billion in sales in fiscal 2022, is developing into a fashion brand. It still has growth potential, given its small share in the global sports-inspired apparel and footwear market, estimated at $152 billion in 2021 (Euromonitor). 
  • VF has disposed of its weaker jeans and work brands, helping to pull its gross margins up to the mid-50s from the high-40s. 
  • As an upscale brand with high price points, Supreme brings higher margins than any of VF’s individual brands except Vans. There is potential for VF to expand Supreme in international markets.

Company Profile:

VF designs, produces, and distributes branded apparel and accessories. Its largest apparel categories include action sports, outdoor, and workwear. Its portfolio of about 15 brands includes Vans, The North Face, Timberland, Supreme, and Dickies. VF markets its products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific through wholesale sales to retailers, e-commerce, and branded stores owned by the company and partners. The company has grown through multiple acquisitions and traces its roots to 1899.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Trane’s Record Backlog Positions the Narrow-Moat Firm for Another Strong Year in 2022

Business Strategy and Outlook:

In early 2020, Ingersoll Rand spun off its industrial segment, which immediately merged with Gardner Denver. This new entity assumed the Ingersoll Rand name and stock ticker. Legacy Ingersoll Rand’s climate segment was renamed Trane Technologies. It has been viewed legacy Ingersoll Rand’s climate business as more attractive than its industrial segment because the former has generally been more profitable and less cyclical.

Trane Technologies is a leading supplier of climate control products and services; it is a dominant player in commercial and residential heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems (approximately 80% of sales) with its Trane and American Standard brands, as well as in transportation refrigeration (20% of sales) with its Thermo King brand. The leading HVAC manufacturers have all embraced a pure-play model. Johnson Controls sold its automotive battery business and Carrier spun off from United Technologies. Lennox is already a pure-play climate control company, although it has rid itself of some underperforming domestic and foreign refrigeration businesses.

Financial Strength:

Trane Technologies has a sound balance sheet, and its consistent free cash flow generation supports its debt service obligations, capital expenditure requirements, and dividend, while also providing financial flexibility for opportunistic share repurchases and acquisitions. Trane Technologies ended its fourth-quarter 2021 with $4.8 billion of outstanding debt and $2.2 billion of cash, which equates to a net debt/2021 adjusted EBITDA ratio of about 1.1. Besides its 4.25% senior notes ($700 million) due in 2023, the 3.75% senior notes ($545 million) due in 2028, and the 3.8% senior notes ($750 million) due in 2029, no more than $500 million is due in any one fiscal year. In 2021, Trane Technologies generated almost $1.4 billion of free cash flow.

Bulls Say:

  • Trane should benefit from secular trends in global urbanization and increased demand for energy efficient building solutions. 
  • With a company mission to address climate change and energy efficiency challenges with its products and services, Trane Technologies has become a popular ESG play. 
  • Trane Technologies generates significant aftermarket and replacement sales on its large installed base, which helps damp cyclicality.

Company Profile:

Trane Technologies manufactures and services commercial and residential HVAC systems and transportation refrigeration solutions under its prominent Trane, American Standard, and Thermo King brands. The $14 billion company generates approximately 70% of sales from equipment and 30% from parts and services. While the firm is domiciled in Ireland, North America accounts for over 70% of its revenue.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Carnival’s Return to Full-Year Profitability Postponed Until 2023 as Omicron Dampens Demand

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Carnival remains the largest company in the cruise industry, with nine global brands and 91 ships at 2021 fiscal year-end. The global cruise market has historically been underpenetrated, offering cruise companies a long-term demand opportunity. Additionally, in recent years, the repositioning and deployment of ships to faster-growing and under-represented regions like Asia-Pacific had helped balance the supply in high-capacity regions like the Caribbean and Mediterranean, aiding pricing. However, global travel has waned as a result of COVID-19, which has the potential to spark longer-term secular shifts in consumer behavior, challenging the economic performance of Carnival over an extended horizon.

As consumers have slowly resumed cruising since the summer of 2021 (after a year-plus no-sail halt), it is suspected that the cruise operators will have to continue to reassure passengers of both the safety and value propositions of cruising. On the yield side, it is expected Carnival to see some pricing pressure as future cruise credits continue to be redeemed in 2022, a headwind partially mitigated by the return of capacity via full deployment of the fleet. And on the cost side, higher spend to maintain tighter cleanliness and health protocols should keep expenses inflated. Aggravating profits will be staggered reintroduction of the fleet through the first half of 2022, crimping near-term profitability and ceding previously obtained scale benefits. As of Jan. 13, 2022, 67% of capacity (50 ships) was already deployed and around 96% of the fleet should be sailing by the end of February.

Financial Strength:

Carnival has secured adequate liquidity to survive a slow resumption of domestic cruising, with $9.4 billion in cash and investments at the end of November 2021. This should cover the company’s cash burn rate over the ramp-up, which has run around $500 million or more per month recently due to higher ship start-up costs. The company has raised significant levels of debt since the onset of the pandemic closing fiscal 2021 with $28.5 billion in long-term debt, up from less than $10 billion at the end of 2019. The company has less than $3 billion in short term and $2 billion in long-term debt coming due over the next year versus $33 billion in total debt. The company is focused on reducing debt service as soon as reasonably possible, as evidenced by the refinancing of over $9 billion in debt, which reduced future annual interest by around $400 million per year. It has also actively pursued the extension of maturities, limiting the cash demand on debt service over the near term.

Bulls Say:

  • As Carnival deploys its fleet, passenger counts and yields could rise at a faster pace than we currently anticipate if capacity limitations are repealed. 
  • A more efficient fleet composition (after pruning 19 ships during COVID-19) may help contain fuel spending, benefiting the cost structure to a greater degree than initially expected, once sailings fully resume. 
  • The nascent Asia-Pacific market should remain promising post-COVID-19, as the four largest operators had capacity for nearly 4 million passengers in 2020, which provides an opportunity for long-term growth with a new consumer.

Company Profile:

Carnival is the largest global cruise company, with 91 ships in its fleet at the end of fiscal 2021, with 98% of its capacity set to be redeployed by May 2022. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; and P&O Cruises in Australia. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival’s brands attracted about 13 million guests in 2019, prior to COVID-19.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

BlackRock Will Continue to Thrive in a More Difficult Environment for Active Asset Managers

Business Strategy and Outlook

With wide-moat-rated BlackRock crossing the $10 trillion mark in assets under management at the end of 2021, concerns about the firm being too large to grow have emerged again. It seems that this complaint come up when the company had just over $1 trillion in AUM back during the 2008-09 financial crisis, as well as just about every time the firm has passed another trillion-dollar marker during the past decade. While one of our key bear points on BlackRock is that the sheer size and scale of its operations would end up eventually being the biggest impediment to the firm’s longer-term growth, we don’t believe we are quite there yet.

BlackRock is at its core a passive investment shop. Through its iShares exchange-traded fund platform and institutional index fund offerings, the wide-moat firm sources two thirds of its managed assets (and close to half of its annual revenue) from passive products. And unlike many of its competitors, BlackRock is currently generating solid organic growth with its operations, primarily driven by its iShares platform, which is the leading domestic and global provider of ETFs, riding a secular trend toward passively managed products that began more than two decades ago.

Financial Strength

BlackRock has been prudent with its use of debt, with debt/total capital averaging just over 15% annually the past 10 calendar years. The company entered 2022 with $6.6 billion in long-term debt, composed of $750 million of 3.375% notes due May 2022, $1 billion of 3.5% notes due March 2024, EUR 700 million of 1.25% notes due May 2025, and $700 million of 3.2% notes due March 2027, $1 billion of 3.25% notes due April 2029, $1 billion of 2.4% notes due April 2030, and $1.25 billion of 1.9% notes due May 2031. The company also has a $4.4 billion revolving credit facility (which expires in March 2026) but had no outstanding balances at the end of September 2021.

BlackRock has historically returned the bulk of its free cash flow to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends. That said, the firm did spend $693 million on two acquisitions in 2018, $1.3 billion on eFront in 2020, and $1.1 billion for Aperio Group in early 2021, so bolt- on deals look to be part of the mix in the near term. As for share repurchases, BlackRock expects to spend $375 million per quarter on share repurchases during 2022 but will increase its allocation to buybacks if shares trade at a significant discount to intrinsic value. The company spent $1.2 billion on share repurchases during 2021. BlackRock increased its quarterly dividend 18% to $4.88 per share early in 2022.

Bulls Say’s 

  • BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world, with $10.010 trillion in AUM at the end of 2021 and clients in more than 100 countries. 
  • Product diversity and a heavier concentration in the institutional channel have traditionally provided BlackRock with a much more stable set of assets than its peers. 
  • BlackRock’s well-diversified product mix makes it fairly agnostic to shifts among asset classes and investment strategies, limiting the impact that market swings or withdrawals from individual asset classes or investment styles can have on its AUM.

Company Profile 

BlackRock is the largest asset managers in the world, with $10.010 trillion in AUM at the end of 2021. Product mix is fairly diverse, with 53% of the firm’s managed assets in equity strategies, 28% in fixed income, 8% in multi-asset class, 8% in money market funds, and 3% in alternatives. Passive strategies account for around two thirds of long-term AUM, with the company’s iShares ETF platform maintaining a leading market share domestically and on a global basis. Product distribution is weighted more toward institutional clients, which by our calculations account for around 80% of AUM. BlackRock is also geographically diverse, with clients in more than 100 countries and more than one third of managed assets coming from investors domiciled outside the U.S. and Canada. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Strong Revenue Growth Continued in Pentair’s Fourth Quarter, but Cost Inflation Pressured Margins

Stock market digital graph chart on LED display concept. A large display of daily stock market price and quotation. Indicator financial forex trade education background.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Pentair is a pure play water company manufacturing a wide range of sustainable water solutions, including energy-efficient swimming pool pumps, filtration solutions, as well as commercial and industrial pumps. Pentair’s business is organized into two segments: consumer solutions and industrial & flow technologies. Consumer solutions (58% of Pentair’s sales in 2021) concentrates on business-to-consumer sales and includes aquatic systems as well as residential and commercial filtration. 

The aquatic systems business, which offers a full line of energy-efficient equipment for residential and commercial swimming pools (including pumps, filters, heaters, and other equipment and accessories), is the crown jewel in Pentair’s portfolio, as it is both its fastest-growing and most profitable business. Industrial & flow technologies (42% of sales in 2021) focuses on business-to-business sales and consists of industrial filtration (including the food and beverage end market), residential irrigation flow, and commercial and infrastructure flow.

Financial Strength

Pentair ended the fourth quarter of 2021 with $894 million of long-term debt while holding $95 million in cash and equivalents. Debt maturities are reasonably well laddered, with only about $88 million maturing in 2022. Furthermore, the company has an additional $764 million available under its revolving credit facility. The company is bound by a debt/EBITDA covenant that requires that the ratio not exceed 3.75 times.

Narrow moat-rated Pentair reported solid fourth-quarter results, as its full-year sales of $3,765 million and adjusted EPS of $3.40 both surpassed our previous estimates ($3,709 million and $3.35, respectively). For full-year 2022, management expects sales growth of 6% to 9% and adjusted EPS in the range of $3.70 to $3.80. After rolling our model forward one year, we’ve modestly bumped our fair value estimate for Pentair to $70 from $69, mostly due to time value of money as well as reversing the implementation of a probability-weighted change in the U. S. statutory tax rate in our model.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Pentair is a pure play water company poised to benefit from demand for sustainable and energy-efficient water solutions. 
  • The pool business continues to deliver solid revenue growth, consistent market share gains, and lucrative operating margins. 
  • Recent acquisitions of Pelican Water and Aquion will bolster Pentair’s portfolio of water solutions in the residential and commercial markets.

Company Profile 

Pentair is a global leader in the water treatment industry, with 10,000 employees and a presence in 25 countries. Pentair’s business is organized into two segments: consumer solutions and industrial & flow technologies. The company offers a wide range of water solutions, including energy-efficient swimming pool equipment, filtration solutions, and commercial and industrial pumps. Pentair generated approximately $3.8 billion in revenue and $686 million in adjusted operating income in 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Vanguard Energy Fund Investor Shares: An energy hybrid sensible

Approach

In late 2020, Vanguard changed this strategy’s prospectus benchmark from the MSCI ACWI Energy Index to the MSCI ACWI Energy + Utilities Index (a custom benchmark that splices the MSCI ACWI Energy and MSCI ACWI Utilities indexes). The firm made the change so this strategy could capitalize on the evolution away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources by investing significantly more in electric and other utilities.

Portfolio

The MSCI ACWI Energy + Utilities Index is a dynamic benchmark, and its sector weights vary based on the performance of energy stocks versus utilities stocks. Meanwhile, the MSCI ACWI Energy Index gained 36% in 2021, whereas the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index returned 10% last year. The MSCI ACWI Energy + Utilities Index’s energy stake increased to 56% as of Dec 31, 2021, as result, while its utilities position decreased to 44% (per Vanguard data).

People

Tom Levering has good credentials for picking utilities stocks as well as energy equities. For starters, he spent several years as a utilities consultant before joining Wellington in 2000, and he served as an energy and utilities analyst for roughly two decades–and led Wellington’s combined energy/utilities team for a few years–before he took charge of this fund in early 2020.

Performance

The Investor share class of this strategy recorded a 27.7% gain in 2021. That’s significantly less than the 36.0% and 44.8% returns posted by the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the average fund in the energy equity Morningstar Category, respectively. But this strategy is an energy/utilities hybrid that began 2021 with roughly 48% of its assets in utilities stocks and ended the year with roughly 44% of assets in such names, and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index produced a gain of just 10.1% last year. The Investor share class’ 27.7% gain is significantly better than the 23.6% return of a 50/50 MSCI ACWI Energy/Utilities custom index and better than the 23.0% return of the strategy’s custom prospectus benchmark.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Citrix Agrees To Be Taken Private for $104 Per Share; Reports Good Results; FVE Down to Deal Price

Business Strategy and Outlook

Citrix serves customers from enterprise-level to small and medium-size businesses and has come to dominate remote access and desktop virtualization while building a supportive portfolio of related networking solutions. A streamlined portfolio has allowed Citrix to focus on selling a holistic solution rather than endpoint products. This includes selling directly to CIOs, converting the installed base of point products to higher-priced and higher-value IT solutions, and winning new accounts. As if these changes were not enough of a challenge, the company is also in the midst of a model transition to subscriptions, which appears to be going well thus far.

While Citrix is strong in its core market, it is not a leader in other markets. In fact, Citrix remains one of a handful of competitors in each of the other markets it serves, including application delivery, endpoint management, software-defined wide-area network management, and web application firewalls, among other niches. The firm went through some turbulence in 2015-17. 2018 was a step in the right direction in terms of focus and execution, but Morningstar analyst believe management will have its hands full over the next several years executing its strategy. 

Morningstar analyst believe Citrix has established a narrow moat, as switching proven core software infrastructure components is something organizations try to avoid. Morningstar analyst  forecast mid single digit top-line growth over the next five years, with gradually improving operating margins. Morningstar analyst think Citrix is well positioned in the coming quarters to be an important partner as its customers expand their remote work strategies, especially with the addition of Wrike to the portfolio.

Citrix Agrees To Be Taken Private for $104 Per Share; Reports Good Results; FVE Down to Deal Price

Morningstar analyst  lowering  fair value estimate for narrow-moat Citrix to $104 per share from $116 after the company agreed to be taken private by Vista Equity Partners and Evergreen Coast Capital for $104 per share. Citrix has been hampered over the years by questionable acquisitions and a lack of operational discipline by previous management teams and was the target of Elliott Management’s activist involvement in 2015. Concurrent with this announcement, Citrix also reported surprisingly strong fourth-quarter results. Fourth-quarter revenue grew 5% year over year to $851 million, which topped the high end of the $825 million to $835 million guidance range. 

Bulls Say

  • Citrix dominates the desktop virtualization (broadly defined) market. 
  • A streamlined portfolio and optimized footprint from a period of major restructuring should help Citrix drive both revenue and margins over the next several years. 
  • The recent release of Citrix Cloud has helped jumpstart the business model transition to subscriptions.

Company Profile

Citrix Systems provides virtualization software, including Virtual Apps and Desktops for desktop virtualization and Citrix Virtual Apps for application virtualization. The company also provides Citrix Endpoint Management for mobile device management and Citrix ADC for application delivery and Citrix SDWAN for routing, security, and WAN monitoring.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Low-cost diversified ESG-focused Australian equity exposure

Young woman trading stock market by touching.

Investment Objective

Vanguard Ethically Conscious Australian Shares Fund seeks to track the return of the FTSE Australia 300 Choice Index before taking into account fees, expenses and tax.

Approach

This fund seeks to provide broad ESG-focused Australian share market exposure in a passively managed, taxefficient vehicle. To achieve that goal, it uses an index-replication approach to track the FTSE Australia 300 Choice Index, a derivative of the FTSE Australia 300 Index. The index is arrived at by excluding companies that deal significantly in business activities involving fossil fuels, nuclear power, alcohol, tobacco, gambling, weapons, and adult entertainment. Additionally, a screen is also applied to filter out names embroiled in severe controversies. Vanguard holds all the securities that make up the index with industry-level exposure limit set at 5 percentage points relative to the parent index. Security weights are approximately the same proportion as the index’s weights. However, the portfolio will deviate from the index when the managers believe such deviations are necessary to minimize transaction costs. The fund may also be exposed to securities that have been removed from or are expected to be included in the index.

Portfolio

The portfolio is top-heavy, with about half of the index in the top 10 companies. The concentration in banks skews the fund’s sector weights, with financial services forming around 34.5% of the portfolio (versus 26.8% for the Morningstar Category average). The basic material is the second-largest sector exposure, but it is meaningfully lower than the category index because of the ESG screening. The industry capping of 5 percentage points further adds to the portfolio diversification. VETH’s market cap does not deviate materially from the category average or index. As such, the average market of the strategy is AUD 25.3 billion versus AUD 29.2 billion for the S&P/ ASX 200 Index category benchmark. Broadly, the portfolio is diversified and offers exposure to almost the entire opportunity set of the domestic equity market. As a result, it has significant overlap with Vanguard’s other broad-based domestic equity products like VAS, both in terms of style and exposure, making it suitable as a core holding.

Performance

Launched in October 2020, the strategy has a very short track record. The trailing nine-month period has been eventful for the domestic equity market with yields moving up and value factor rotation. As such, the fund’s performance has been eventful as well in tandem with broader market movements. From its inception through July 2021, the strategy has closely mirrored the underlying index but trailed the S&P/ASX 200 category benchmark by 87 basis points. As the materials, energy, and commodity sectors rallied during this period, the fund’s relative underweighting in these sectors has hurt performance. As the value factor rebounded toward the end of last year through the first half of 2021, the modest growth tilt of the strategy relative to the category index detracted. Growth names like A2 Milk have been the major contributor to underperformance during this period. Investors should be cautious and not extrapolate this performance, however. Based on the past attributes, investors may expect similar cyclicality in performance tied to the broader domestic economic activities and value/growth factor rotation.

Top 10 Holdings of the fund

About the fund

The Fund provides low cost exposure to stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and excludes companies with significant business activities involving fossil fuels, nuclear power, alcohol, tobacco, gambling, weapons, adult entertainment and a conduct related screen based on severe controversies. Diversification requirements are applied to restrict the proportion of the index invested in any one industry to +/-5% of the industry weights of the FTSE Australia 300 Index, subject to any limitation issues resulting from the exclusionary screening.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Norfolk Southern’s Intermodal a Key Long-term Growth Opportunity

Business Strategy and Outlook

Norfolk Southern is a well-managed enterprise, and from the start of the rail renaissance in 2004 through 2008, it posted the highest margins among U.S. Class I railroads. However, its operating ratio (expenses/revenue) deteriorated to 75.4% in 2009 and remained stuck between 69% and 73% from 2010 to 2015. This pales in comparison to progress made by peers Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific, which lack Norfolk’s exposure to Appalachian coal. However, by 2017 the rail was back on track, and it has achieved record ORs in each year since, including an adjusted 60.1% in 2021. In recent years, Norfolk renewed its commitment to pricing discipline and margin gains, particularly via precision railroading initiatives, which have driven more efficient use of locomotive assets, labor, and fuel. It is anticipated incremental gains as the firm continues to refine its PSR playbook. Of note, in late 2019, former Canadian National CEO Claude Mongeau (2010-16) joined Norfolk’s board of directors in part to help bolster the rail’s PSR efforts. 

Norfolk hauls coal directly from Illinois and Appalachian mines, and transfers Powder River Basin coal eastward from the Western rails. Thus, coal-demand headwinds and changes in environmental regulations will probably remain a factor over the long run, despite near-term improvement off lows posted in 2020. That said, coal runs in unit trains hauling exclusively coal (often using customers’ cars), thus it is believed that the rail can continue to adjust its train and crew starts to match demand conditions. 

Norfolk generated healthy volume growth near 5% on average within its intermodal franchise over the past decade. In fact, intermodal revenue surpassed coal in 2014 and is now the highest-volume segment (roughly 60% of 2020-21 carloads versus 9% for coal). Capital projects targeting capacity and velocity improvement have helped the rail capitalize on net positive truck-to-rail conversion activity over the years. Norfolk’s domestic intermodal volume may face congestion-related constraints lingering into early 2022, but it is still seen as intermodal as a key long-term growth opportunity.

Financial Strength

At year-end 2021, Norfolk Southern held an ample $839 billion of cash and equivalents compared with $13.8 billion of total debt ($12.1 billion in 2020). Historically, the rail generates steady free cash flow, despite investing heavily in its network (capital expenditure averaged 16% of revenue over the past five years). Norfolk deploys this cash on dividends and share repurchases, and occasionally borrows to boost these returns to shareholders. Share repurchases eased briefly 2020 due to pandemic risk to cash flow, but they ramped back up by year-end, and it is held, repurchase activity to remain active in the years ahead. Norfolk Southern operates with a straightforward capital structure composed mostly of senior notes. In terms of liquidity, the rail also has an $800 million revolving credit facility and a $400 million accounts receivable securitization program for short-term needs–both programs are fully available and undrawn as of third-quarter 2021. In 2021, Norfolk’s total debt/adjusted-EBITDA came in near 2.5 times (2.7 times in 2020). It is projected 2.2 times in 2022. The historical five-year average is 2.4 times. Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest expense) was a comfortable 9 times in 2021, versus 7 times in 2020. Overall, Norfolk’s balance sheet is healthy and it is anticipated the firm will have no issues servicing its debt load in the years ahead.

 Bulls Say’s

  • Norfolk Southern reignited operating ratio improvement in 2016 after stagnating over the preceding six years. With help from precision railroading, the rail reached OR records in each of the past four years.
  • Norfolk Southern runs one of the safest railroads in the U.S., as measured by injuries per hours worked; this boosts service levels and helps to keep costs down. 
  • Compared with trucking, shipping by rail is less expensive for long distances (on average) and is four times more fuel-efficient per ton-mile. These factors should help support longer-term incremental intermodal growth.

Company Profile 

Class-I railroad Norfolk Southern operates in the Eastern United States. On roughly 21,000 miles of track, the firm hauls shipments of coal, intermodal traffic, and a diverse mix of automobile, agriculture, metal, chemical, and forest products. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

L3Harris Technologies Growth Drivers: Tactical Radios Replacement Cycle, National Security Satellite Asset Decentralization, International Sales Expansion

Business Strategy and Outlook

Defense prime contractors are not born, they’re assembled. L3Harris Technologies, the sixth-largest defense prime by defense sales, was made from the merger of equals between L-3 Technologies, a sensor-maker that operated a decentralized business focused on inorganic growth, and the Harris Corporation, a sensor and radio manufacturer that ran a more unified business. Underpinning the merger’s thesis was an assumption that additional scale would primarily generate cost synergies but that eventually, the firms would produce meaningful revenue synergies. 

Defense primes are implicitly a play on the defense budget, which is thought to be ultimately a function of a nation’s wealth and its perception of danger. The fiscal stimulus used to support the U.S. economy during the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically increased U.S. debt, and higher debt levels are usually a forward indicator of fiscal austerity. But it is alleged, a flattening, rather than declining, budgetary environment as is seen, that heightened geopolitical tensions between great powers are likely to buoy spending despite a higher debt burden. It is thought contractors will be able to continue growing despite a slowing macroenvironment due to sizable backlogs and the national defense strategy’s increased focus on modernization, and it is believed defense budget growth is likely to return to its long-term trend. 

Broadly, it is probable, with management’s thesis on the merger. Cost synergies to a large extent drove the 30-year wave of consolidation across the defense industry, which has largely generated shareholder value. Both L-3 and Harris had high revenue exposure to the defense sensors business and operated reasonably similar businesses, so it isn’t seen major execution risks in the merger. Arguably, L-3 was an ideal partner for a merger of equals because L-3 operated as a holding company and there are quite a few potential efficiencies from consolidating the firm into a more integrated firm. The three biggest firm-specific growth opportunities which are seen for L3Harris Technologies are the tactical radios replacement cycle, national security satellite asset decentralization, and international sales expansion.

Financial Strength

It is held, L3Harris is in solid financial shape. The firm increased debt by about $4.5 billion in 2015 to fund the acquisition of Exelis, a sensor-maker that was spun off from ITT and had been paying down debt since. The firm’s all-stock merger of equals with L-3 Technologies did not dramatically increase debt relative to size, and it is projected, a 2022 gross debt/EBITDA of roughly 2.0 times, which is quite manageable for a steady defense firm. The company is using the proceeds of portfolio divestitures for share repurchases, so it is anticipated EBTIDA expansion will be the driving force behind a decreasing debt/EBITDA over Analysts’ forecast period. While it is cherished the desire to compensate shareholders, it is likely that paying down debt may be more value accretive, as it would make more comfortable for analysts in decreasing their cost of equity assumption for the firm. While L3Harris has some exposure to commercial aviation (depending on definitions, roughly 5%-15% of sales), it is not anticipated the firm will be materially affected by the downturn in commercial aviation. As demand for defense products has remained resilient, it is not foreseen, for the firm needing to raise capital any time soon. That noted, L3Harris produces a substantial amount of free cash flow and is not especially indebted, so it is awaited that the company would be able to access the capital markets at minimal cost if necessary.

 Bulls Say’s

  • There is substantial potential for cost synergies from the merger with L-3 due to the decentralized organizational structure of the pre-merger entity. 
  • L3Harris is at the base of a global replacement cycle for tactical radios, which is likely to drive substantial growth. 
  • Defense prime contractors operate in an acyclical business, which could offer some protection as the U.S. is currently in a recession.

Company Profile 

L3Harris Technologies was created in 2019 from the merger of L3 Technologies and Harris, two defense contractors that provide products for the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) market. The firm also has smaller operations serving the civil government, particularly the Federal Aviation Administration’s communication infrastructure, and produces various avionics for defense and commercial aviation.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.