Business Strategy and Outlook
Link Administration has created a narrow economic moat in the Australian and U.K. financial services administration sectors via its leading positions in fund administration and share registry services. Client retention rates exceed 90% in both markets, underpinned by inflation-linked contracts of between two and five years. The capital-light nature of the business model should enable good cash conversion, regular dividends, and relatively low gearing. Earnings growth prospects are supported by organic growth in member numbers, industry fund consolidation, and continued outsourcing trends. The company was formed via numerous acquisitions made since 2005 under the ownership of private equity firm Pacific Equity Partners, which sold its remaining holding in the company in 2016.
It is considered that the Australian fund administration business, which constitutes around a third of group revenue, to be the strongest of Link’s businesses. Link usually comprises around three fourths of fund administration customer costs, which creates material operational and reputational risks to switching providers. Contract lengths of between three and five years, along with six to nine months of lead time to change provider, also create barriers to switching. Switching costs are evidenced by Link’s recurring revenue rate of around 90% and client retention rate of over 95%. Six of Link’s 10 largest clients have been with the company for over 20 years.
Link’s only significant competitor in fund administration is Marsh & McLennan-owned Mercer, which has a 10% market share following its acquisition of Pillar, previously the third-largest provider, in 2016. It is projected both companies to compete aggressively for future outsourcing contracts, which may come from the 60% of the market that is currently serviced in-house. However, around 30% of the in-house segment comprises the four major Australian banks and AMP, which have a reasonably low probability of outsourcing. The remaining 30% comprises a combination of government-owned entities and relatively small superannuation funds, which are likely to have outsourcing lead times of months or years.
Financial Strength
Link’s balance sheet is in good shape with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of around 2.6 as at Dec. 31, 2021, which is within the company’s target range of 2 to 3. From an interest coverage ratio perspective, Link has a manageable interest coverage ratio of around 14.
Bulls Say’s
- It is held for, Link’s EPS to grow at a CAGR of 9% over the next decade, driven by a revenue CAGR of 6% per year, in addition to cost-cutting and operating leverage.
- Experts’ base case assumes Link’s Australian fund administration market share grows by 2.5 percentage points to 32.5% over the next five years.
- The capital-light nature of the business model should enable regular dividends, and low financial leverage creates the opportunity for debt-funded acquisitions.
Company Profile
Link provides administration services to the financial services sector in Australia and the U.K., predominantly in the share registry and investment fund sectors. The company is the largest provider of superannuation administration services and the second-largest provider of share registry services in Australia. Link acquired U.K.-based Capita Asset Services in 2017; this provides a range of administration services to financial services firms and comprises around 40% of group revenue. Link’s clients are usually contracted for between two and five years but are relatively sticky, which results in a high proportion of recurring revenue. The business model’s capital-light nature means cash conversion is relatively strong.
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.