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Broadcom’s Acquisition of VMware Underscores the Latter’s Importance in Hybrid-Cloud Environment

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

VMware, a pioneer of virtual machines, dominates the maturing data center server virtualization market. With organizations prioritizing cloud over on-premises computing infrastructure, company believes VMware’s robust cloud provider partnerships, including the major hyperscale’s, should help the firm handle the changing market landscape. Company expects VMware’s growth to come from being the glue between computing infrastructures, networking locations, and burgeoning security and developer offerings being bolstered from its strong end user compute portfolio. Our view of cloud networking, akin to VMware’s assessment, is that most enterprises will utilize hybrid cloud solutions. Public clouds can precipitously augment network growth but enterprises face integration complexities among on-premises networks and private and public clouds. Beyond hyperscale cloud provider partnerships, VMware’s Cloud Provider Program offers thousands of cloud partners collaborating with VMware software. In our view, this allows VMware to remain ingrained in networks while becoming the commonality between private and public clouds. Company thinks that the November 2021 spinoff from Dell Technologies put an end to an uncertain future around VMware, and that growth can accelerate through VMware’s integration with cloud vendors and cadence of product releases outside of Dell’s umbrella. With solid free cash flow and growth opportunities, Company assumes that its $11.5 billion special dividend, to all shareholders, as part of the spinoff was worth the price of becoming a stand-alone entity. 

VMware’s vSphere and ESXi hypervisor are virtualization gold standards, and its hybrid cloud platform creates a consolidated view across multicloud environments. The company’s strong franchises within end user compute, security, and virtualized networking and storage can be overlooked, and support growth ventures such as VMware’s integration of Kubernetes-based container management within vSphere. It is expected that       software cohesion across on-premises and clouds along with nascent networking products should give VMware maintainable growth. In May 2022, the firm agreed to be acquired by Broadcom.

Financial Strengths:  

Company considers VMware a financially stable company that should continue generating strong free cash flow. The company’s main expenditures are in the forms of developing product innovations and marketing efforts. VMware’s R&D expenditures are in the low 20s as a percentage of revenue while sales and marketing expenditures are in the low 30s. In the past, VMware has bolted on firms to bolster its presence in focus growth areas, and organic developments to be supplemented with future acquisitions. As of the end of fiscal 2022, VMware had $3.6 billion in cash and equivalents, and the company will pay its debts on time. VMware completed its first special dividend of $11 billion in December 2018, which helped Dell Technologies facilitate an exchange of Dell Class V tracking stock (DVMT) for a new class of Dell Technologies Class C common stock or a cash buyout option for shareholders. As part of becoming an independent company and spinning off from Dell, VMware paid special dividends worth $11.5 billion and retained an investment-grade credit rating. Although VMware raised capital to help pay the special dividend, company expects to quickly lower its obligations through cash on hand and its robust free cash flow generation.

Bulls Say: 

  • VMware’s hybrid cloud program could yield tremendous growth if VMware is cemented as the dominant software supplier between private and public clouds. Its presence in hyperscale public cloud networks could make it the de facto virtualization choice. 
  • Product leadership in application management, endures computing, cybersecurity, and software-defined networking provides robust growth opportunities beyond core virtualization. 
  • VMware can more tightly integrate itself with Dell peers as a stand-alone company, while also benefiting from its Dell commercial contract and their salesforce.

Company Description:  

VMware is an industry titan in virtualizing IT infrastructure and became a stand-alone entity after spinning off from Dell Technologies in November 2021. The software provider operates in the three segments: licenses; subscriptions and software as a service; and services. VMware’s solutions are used across IT infrastructure, application development, and cybersecurity teams, and the company takes a neutral approach to being the cohesion between cloud environments. The Palo Alto, California, firm operates and sells on a global scale, with about half its revenue from the United States, through direct sales, distributors, and partnerships.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Alibaba’s Adjusted EBITA Could Bottom Out in December Quarter of Fiscal Year 2023; Shares Attractive

Finance and Economy Chart for Dollar Gold Euro Currencies Trading View

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Alibaba BABA is a Big Data-centric conglomerate, with transaction data from its marketplaces and logistics businesses allowing it to move into omnichannel retail, cloud computing, media and entertainment, and online-to-offline services. Company think a strong network effect allows leading e-commerce players to extend into other growth avenues, and nowhere is that more evident than with Alibaba. Alibaba’s internet services had annual active consumers of 953 million as of September 2021, versus the 1.2 billion online population in September 2021 per Questmobile and the 1.4 billion population in China. This provides Alibaba with an unparalleled source of data that it can use to help merchants and consumer brands develop personalized mobile marketing and content strategies to expand their target audiences, increase click-through rates and physical store transactions, and bolster return on investment. Alibaba’s marketplace monetization rates have reduced recently, due to increased compliance of antitrust laws, more competition, and weak consumer sentiment. Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD.

 While the company view the Taobao/Tmall marketplaces as Alibaba’s core cash flow drivers, it also believes AliCloud and globalization offer long-term potential. While AliCloud will remain in investment mode in the medium term, accelerating revenue per user suggests a migration to value-added content delivery and database services that can drive segment margins higher over time. On globalization, third-party merchants are successfully reaching Lazada’s users across Southeast Asia, something that should continue as the company rolls out incremental personalized mobile marketing and content opportunities. While early, company share management’s views about Ele.me offering incremental monetization opportunities from Alibaba’s user base.

Financial Strengths:  

Alibaba is in sound financial health. As of December 2020, the company had CNY 456 billion in cash and unrestricted short-term investments on its balance sheet against CNY 117 billion in short- and long-term bank borrowing and unsecured senior notes. Although Alibaba remains in investment mode, company believes the strong cash flow profile of its e-commerce marketplaces offers it the financial flexibility to continue investing in technology infrastructure and cloud, research, marketing, and user experience initiatives through its current balance sheet and strong cash flow profile. Additionally, it is assumed that the company has the capacity to add leverage to its capital structure, which could allow it to take advantage of low borrowing rates to fund growth initiatives, introduce a cash dividend when it sees limited investment opportunities with good returns on investment, or repurchase shares. It is expected that for the company to pursue acquisitions that could further improve its ecosystem, including online-to-offline, physical retail, and increased logistic capacity or capabilities.

Bulls Say: 

  • Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD. 
  • Core annual active users on Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces had a retention rate of over 90% for the year ended September 2021. 
  • Alibaba’s core commerce (which includes China marketplace-based businesses and other loss-making businesses) adjusted EBITA margin was 26.2%, higher than JD retail’s 2.3% non-GAAP EBIT margin and PDD’s 15.2% non-GAAP EBIT margin for the September quarter of 2021.

Company Description:  

Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume (CNY 7.5 trillion for the fiscal year ended March 2021). It operates China’s online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). Alibaba’s China commerce retail division accounted for 63% of revenue in the September 2021 quarter. Additional revenue sources include China commerce wholesale (2%), international retail/wholesale marketplaces (5%/2%), cloud computing (10%), digital media and entertainment platforms (4%), Cainiao logistics services (5%), and innovation initiatives/other (1%).

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Medtronic Finishes Fiscal 2022 as Anticipated; No Change to Our FVE on Tempered View of 2023

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Medtronic’s standing as the largest pure-play medical device maker remains a force to be reckoned with in the med-tech landscape. Pairing Medtronic’s diversified product portfolio aimed at a wide range of chronic diseases with its expansive selection of products for acute care in hospitals has bolstered Medtronic’s position as a key partner for its hospital customers. Medtronic has historically focused on innovation, designing and manufacturing devices to address cardiac care, neurological and spinal conditions, and diabetes. All along, the firm has remained focused on its fundamental strategy of innovation. It is often first to market with new products and has invested heavily in internal research and development efforts as well as acquiring emerging technologies. However, in the postreform healthcare world where there are higher hurdles for securing reimbursement for next-generation technology, Medtronic has slightly shifted its strategy to include partnering more closely with its hospital clients by offering greater breadth of products and services to help hospitals operate more efficiently. By partnering more closely and integrating itself into more hospital operations, Medtronic is well positioned to take advantage of more business opportunities in the value-based reimbursement environment, in our view. In particular, Medtronic has been pioneering risk-based contracting around some of its cardiac and diabetes products, which company thinks is attractive to hospital clients and payers alike. 

Company has always appreciated Medtronic’s diverse portfolio, where certain waning product lines would be offset by growth in other categories. The addition of devices and consumables used in the surgical suite should further stabilize potential speed bumps in individual product lines. The COVID-19 disruption added more near-term turbulence, especially with supply chain issues and delays in nonpandemic patient volume, but the company remains confident that underlying demand for many of these therapies and Medtronic’s ongoing innovation should prevail over the longer term.

Financial Strengths:  

Medtronic’s financial health deteriorated somewhat after financing a significant portion of the Covidien merger with new debt issuance. Covidien shareholders owned about 30% of the combined entity at the time of the merger, which allowed the combined entity to invert to Covidien’s Irish domicile, lowering its tax rate and enhancing its ability to access overseas cash. At the end of January 2016, Medtronic owed $36 billion in debt, or around 4 times adjusted EBITDA, which is up from around 2 times historically. Since then, the firm has paid off approximately $14 billion of the debt. The firm ended fiscal 2022 with debt to adjusted EBITDA around 3 times, which is manageable, but slightly higher than the 2.5 times that is common in the medical technology industry. Nonetheless, the firm generates strong cash flow that can be put toward tuck-in acquisitions. Beyond its debt obligations and M&A, the firm aims to return a minimum of 50% of its annual free cash flow to shareholders but has been in the 60% to 100% range in recent years, primarily through its dividend and peripherally due to opportunistic share repurchase

Bulls Say: 

  • Medtronic has historically held roughly 50% share in its core heart devices. It’s also the market leader in spinal products, insulin pumps, and neuromodulators for chronic pain. 
  • Medtronic’s pipeline contains treatments for atrial fibrillation, mitral valve disease, and renal denervation for hypertension. If these new therapies prove effective, Medtronic could dominate three more potentially large markets. 
  • Medtronic often finds novel ways to apply familiar technologies, like using the implantable electronic stimulation in pacemakers to address fecal incontinence and chronic pain

Company Description:  

One of the largest medical device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for almost 50% of the company’s total sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Best Buy’s Long-Term Digital and Services Narrative Remains Intact Despite Near-Term Pressure

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

The company believe Best Buy is taking adequate steps to shore up its competitive position in an intensely competitive consumer electronics space. As the industry emerges from the shadow of COVID-19, it’s become clear that how people shop has permanently changed–with customers demanding seamless omnichannel access to favorite brands, quick fulfillment across channels, and tech solutions to more problems than ever before. As a result, Best Buy’s strategic positioning continues to resonate, with the firm leveraging its physical footprint for fulfillment and post-sale services, emphasizing its differentiated service offering, and experimenting with newer store formats, as the “one size fits all” retail model across trade areas appears antiquated. With more than one third of sales coming through digital channels in calendar 2021 (with management anticipating roughly 35% in perpetuity), the firm’s recent supply chain and e-commerce investments ($2.7 billion over the last five years, some 74% of total capital expenditures) look prescient. Next-day delivery now covers 99% of U.S. zip codes (up from 80% from pre-pandemic), allowing the firm to compete on more level ground against e-commerce competitors, like wide-moat Amazon–as buy-online-pick-up-in-store, or BOPIS) volumes, at 40% of e-commerce sales, remain more challenging for online-only stores to replicate. 

Further, the company takes a positive view of the firm’s Totaltech program, with more than 4.5 million members receiving unlimited home tech support, VIP access to phone and chat teams, free delivery and standard installation, members-only pricing, and free extended warranties on Best Buy purchases. Through the program, Best Buy leverages its network of 20,000 Geek Squad agents, increases touchpoints with customers, and positions itself better to earn the first shot at servicing customer category needs. Finally, Best Buy Health remains intriguing, with lower price elasticity and auspicious tailwinds from an insurer pay model. However, competition in the space remains rife, as a number of moaty firms with extensive healthcare aspirations (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Facebook) have invested heavily in the segment.

Financial Strengths:  

The company thinks that Best Buy’s financial strength is sound, with the firm maintaining just $545 million in net debt at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2023 and an investment-grade credit rating. With leverage well under 1 turn (0.3 debt/EBITDA at fiscal 2022 year-end), strong EBIT interest coverage, and no meaningful maturities until 2028, the company sees very little financial risk for the firm in the near to medium term. Access to a $1.25 billion credit facility adds a further degree of insulation. Consistent with historical patterns, it is expected that Best Buy will prioritize growth capital expenditures, strategic acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases with its free cash flow (with free cash flow averaging 4.5% of sales through fiscal 2027). The firm also maintains an attractive dividend, with a 35%-45% payout target. The company’s annual share repurchases average a mid-single-digit percentage of shares outstanding through 2032, with our model calling for total shareholder returns of $11.3 billion through fiscal 2027.

Bulls Say: 

  • With digital sales volumes projected to equilibrate at roughly double pre-COVID-19 levels, Best Buy should better compete for online volumes that it historically ceded to online competitors. 
  • Improving route densities should strengthen the margin profile of small parcel e-commerce sales, with 35% of store “hubs” now accounting for 70% of ship from-store volume. 
  • The Best Buy Totaltech program should increase touchpoints with the firm’s best customers, increasing spending and frequency relative to pre-program behavior.

Company Description:  

With $51.8 billion in fiscal 2022 sales, Best Buy is the largest pure-play consumer electronics retailer in the U.S., with roughly 10.6% share of the aggregate market and north of 40% share of offline sales, per our calculations, CTA industry, and Euromonitor data. The firm generates the bulk of its sales in-store, with mobile phones and tablets, computers, and appliances representing its three largest categories. Recent investments in e-commerce fulfillment, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have seen the U.S. e-commerce channel roughly double from prepandemic levels, with management estimating that it will represent a mid-30% proportion of sales moving forward.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Vertex’s Narrow Moat Based on Intangible Assets From CF Drugs; Diversified Pipeline Supports Growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Vertex was once known for discovering Incivek, a blockbuster hepatitis C drug now overshadowed by a robust cystic fibrosis franchise with megablockbuster potential. The company’s approved cystic fibrosis drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta, which will make Vertex eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population, assuming international and pediatric approvals. Vertex is anticipated to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other rare indications to spur growth. Cystic fibrosis is a rare indication characterized by a progressive and deadly decline in lung function, affecting approximately 83,000 people worldwide. Since its 2012 launch, Kalydeco has captured most of its target patient population (less than 10% of CF patients with specific genetic mutations) and has become the backbone of combination therapies, including Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta. Orkambi’s launch in 2015 expanded the eligible patient population by adding CF patients with homozygous F508del mutations, but its uptake was slower because of its safety profile. Symdeko’s 2018 launch didn’t come with any worries over safety and contributed over $700 million in revenue in its first year, targeting the same population as Orkambi plus some additional patients. Trikafta, a triple-combination therapy, has had a strong launch since its U.S. approval in 2019, significantly expanding the company’s addressable patient population to heterozygous patients. 

Vertex’s comprehensive approach has already shaped the treatment of CF and earned it a dominant position worldwide. The chronic nature of therapy and limited competition on the horizon heighten the CF market’s attractiveness. Given these positive market dynamics, Vertex’s CF program could possibly grow to over $11 billion within the forecast period. Vertex’s pipeline spans several rare diseases, including CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease, VX-147 for APOL1-mediated kidney disease, and small-molecule inhibitors for pain. The CF franchise will provide ample cash for the development of these candidates.

Financial Strength

Vertex is in strong financial health, given its robust cash flow generation and low debt. At the end of 2021, Vertex held $7.5 billion in cash and investments and had about $557 million in total finance lease obligations. Vertex reached profitability in 2017, and its cystic fibrosis portfolio continues to expand. The company launched its triple combination therapy, Trikafta, in the U.S. in 2019, and it is expected to operate at maintainable profitable levels throughout the explicit forecast. Vertex has utilized its cash to expand its pipeline outside of cystic fibrosis, which has included acquisitions, collaboration agreements, and ongoing internal research and development. Vertex is expected will continue using its ample cash flow to build a more diversified rare-disease portfolio as it looks beyond the cystic fibrosis market.

Bulls Say’s

  • The firm’s cystic fibrosis therapies are poised to dominate the lucrative market for the foreseeable future, based on the disease-modifying potential of the drugs, chronic use by patients, and limited competition. 
  • Vertex’s leading drug candidates were mostly discovered in-house, lending credibility to its drug discovery technology and potential to generate additional pipeline candidates. 
  • Vertex’s combination therapies have lengthy patents, protecting the profitable cystic fibrosis portfolio from generics.

Company Profile 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company that discovers and develops small-molecule drugs for the treatment of serious diseases. Its key drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta/Kaftrio for cystic fibrosis, where Vertex therapies remain the standard of care globally. In addition to its focus on cystic fibrosis, Vertex is diversifying its pipeline through gene-editing therapies such as CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease, small-molecule inhibitors targeting acute and chronic pain using non-opioid treatments, and small-molecule inhibitors of APOL1-mediated kidney diseases. Vertex is also investigating cell therapies to deliver a potential functional cure for type 1 diabetes.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Coupa’s Opening Quarter Dives Deeper Into Subscription Growth; FVE Down to $108

Business Strategy & Outlook

Coupa Software is a cloud-based business spend management, or BMS, platform that allows firms to monitor, control, and analyze expenditures to lower costs and improve operational efficiency. Coupa’s solutions are designed to manage all spend, and inform each step of a transaction’s process, from idea inception, supplier evaluation, and procurement, to invoicing, and finally to payment collection. With a platform of over 2,500 businesses and over 7 million suppliers, Coupa has built a robust self-reinforcing ecosystem of AI-informed spend management. Narrow-moat Coupa is perceived to have a long growth runway ahead as it continues to make strategic investments to expand its platform and spend management use-cases. In a go-to-market model that focuses on co-selling deals with system integrators, Coupa has been able to expand its market reach significantly. As back-office digital transformations are accelerating and Coupa remains the market-leading cloud BSM vendor, Coupa’s partners are expected to increasingly advance Coupa’s adoption throughout businesses as they guide their clients through digital transformation initiatives. 

As Coupa has long focused on a broader source-to-pay strategy, offering solutions that far exceed the functionality of its original transactional core, the company has made a high level of investments to build out its platform into a more holistic spend management tool. As the firm introduces new modules, Coupa will benefit from alignment with a larger number of spend use-cases, greater suite synergies, and more cross-selling opportunities. Further, a growing community will reinforce Coupa’s AI-based community intelligence offering, providing higher value prescriptive insights to optimize spend decisions. Coupa’s moat is supported by strong user metrics, with gross retention above 95% and net retention exceeding 110%. While adoption of Coupa’s BSM platform has grown rapidly, cumulative spend under management has far outpaced sequential customer and recently surpassed $3 trillion. Coupa’s market opportunity is considered to be significant as it is pioneering a largely untapped market opportunity in cloud-based unified spend management.

Financial Strengths 

Coupa is in a decent financial position. As of January 2022, Coupa had $729.5 million in cash and marketable securities versus $1.6 billion in convertible debt. In June 2019 and June 2020, Coupa issued $805 million of convertible senior notes, due 2025 and convertible at $159.60 per share, and $1.38 billion of convertible senior notes, due 2026 and convertible at $296.45 per share, respectively. Coupa has yet to achieve GAAP profitability, as the company remains focused on reinvesting excess returns back into the company, both on an organic and inorganic basis, to build out the platform and enhance future growth prospects. While Coupa has invested heavily in acquisitions over the past five fiscal years, allocating well over $1.0 billion to inorganic investments, acquisition activity is expected to slow as the platform is virtually complete. Coupa does not pay a dividend, nor repurchase stock, and for a young company pioneering a novel offspring under the ERP umbrella, it is only appropriate that the company focuses capital allocation on reinvestments for growth. Even so, the firm has historically demonstrated strong cash flows, with free cash flow margins averaging 16% over the last three fiscal years. While cash flows were pressured in fiscal 2021 and 2022 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, healthy free cash flows are expected in later years. 

Coupa reached non-GAAP profitability in 2019, posting both a positive non-GAAP operating margin and positive non-GAAP earnings from then on. The company has averaged a non-GAAP operating margin of 9.9% since 2019, and as the company scales, non-GAAP operating margins are projected to reach into the high-20% range at the end of the 10-year forecast period. These positive results should translate to profitability on a GAAP basis in the future as well.

Bulls Say

  • Coupa has strong user retention metrics, with gross retention above 95% and net dollar retention north of 110%. 
  • As Coupa expands its platform both organically and inorganically, increasing suite synergies are anticipated to accelerate cross-selling activity, further entrenching customers within Coupa and creating greater monetization opportunities. 
  • Continual annual subscription price point increases reflect the stickiness of Coupa’s modules and suggest significant competitive differentiation in winning new deals over less expensive alternatives.

Company Description

Coupa Software is a cloud-based provider of business spend management, or BSM, solutions. Coupa’s BSM platform provides visibility into all spend, allowing companies to gain control over their spending, optimize their supplier network and supply chains, and manage liquidity. The platform’s transactional core consists of procurement, invoicing, expense management, and payment solutions, while supporting modules ranging from strategic sourcing solutions to supply chain design and planning solutions round out the comprehensive spend management ecosystem. 

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Market Wants Proof Tysers Acquisition a Winner; Creates Buying Opportunity in AUB Group Shares

Business Strategy & Outlook

AUB operates the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. AUB brokers derive revenue from commissions paid by insurers, based on gross written premiums. AUB owns or has equity stakes in each broking business within the network. Post the exit of rehabilitation services in 2021, around 85% of group EBITA is delivered by the broker network, while the underwriting agencies generate about 15%. A key value proposition over smaller brokers is AUB’s ability to negotiate more favourable policy wording and pricing. Scale also provides the capacity to spend more on technology, which helps facilitate greater analytical and processing capabilities, and marketing to help attract and retain customers. Other services such as claims support and premium funding support the value proposition. AUB’s underwriting agencies distribute insurance products but take no underwriting risk. Underwriting agencies act on behalf of insurers to design, develop, and provide specialised insurance products and services. 

The earnings outlook is positive. Further insurance price rises are expected over the medium term as insurers seek to cover claims inflation and weak investment income. This follows a weak pricing environment due to excess global reinsurance capacity, soft economic conditions, and elevated competition. Insurance brokers are expected to take share of the intermediated market. Technology should allow a greater number of policies per client–for example, adding personal motor/home on top of a business clients insurance needs. AUB’s investment in BizCover, a self-service insurance platform targeting small SMEs, and partnership with accounting firm Kelly+Partners to act as a lead generator, should see AUB take share of the small SME end of the market. This share will most likely come from the direct channel. The acquisition of Tysers is material for AUB Group, and while the current projection of low-single-digit revenue growth may prove conservative in the current rate environment, an optimistic outlook is adopted in relation to whether targeted cost and revenue synergy targets will be achieved.

Financial Strengths 

AUB is in sound financial health. It has strong cash flow generation with a high conversion of earnings to operating cash flow and a relatively high dividend payout ratio. Gearing as reported by the company (corporate, subsidiary and look through share of associate debt/debt plus equity) ratio is reasonable, at 31% and below the firm’s maximum 40% ratio. The current debt load looks manageable, with EBITDA interest cover of over 18 times and the nature of its businesses being relatively low-risk. It is assumed AUB will use operating cash flows to fund increased positions in existing broker partners, with headroom to fund small acquisitions from cash on hand. To fund the acquisition of Tysers, expected to complete in first-half fiscal 2023, AUB Group completed a AUD 350 million equity raising, and will issue AUD 175 million worth of shares to the vendor, and increase debt. Debt/EBITDA is expected to rise to around 2.8 times from 2 times in fiscal 2021, but is also expected to fall on the part sale of the U.K. retail broking business, realisation of synergies, and strong cash flow generation.

Bulls Say

  • AUB’s scale and expertise in insurance products and services leave it well placed to benefit from higher insurance pricing. 
  • BizCover and the Kelly+Partners partnership see AUB placed to take market share in the smaller end of the SME market. 
  • The firm’s acquisition strategy, both new investments and increased equity stakes, likely boosts EPS growth.

Company Description

AUB Group is the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. It has an ownership in 55 brokerage businesses, which collectively write over AUD 3 billion in premiums. It also owns equity stakes in 27 underwriting agencies. AUB derives revenue from commissions (from insurers, ultimately paid for by AUB’s customers) based on gross written premium, or GWP, from agencies it owns, and a share of profits from associates and joint ventures. GWP is split between personal (6%), small to medium enterprises (68%), and corporates (26%).

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Coupa’s Opening Quarter Dives Deeper Into Subscription Growth; FVE Down to $108

Business Strategy & Outlook

Coupa Software is a cloud-based business spend management, or BMS, platform that allows firms to monitor, control, and analyze expenditures to lower costs and improve operational efficiency. Coupa’s solutions are designed to manage all spend, and inform each step of a transaction’s process, from idea inception, supplier evaluation, and procurement, to invoicing, and finally to payment collection. With a platform of over 2,500 businesses and over 7 million suppliers, Coupa has built a robust self-reinforcing ecosystem of AI-informed spend management. Narrow-moat Coupa is perceived to have a long growth runway ahead as it continues to make strategic investments to expand its platform and spend management use-cases. In a go-to-market model that focuses on co-selling deals with system integrators, Coupa has been able to expand its market reach significantly. As back-office digital transformations are accelerating and Coupa remains the market-leading cloud BSM vendor, Coupa’s partners are expected to increasingly advance Coupa’s adoption throughout businesses as they guide their clients through digital transformation initiatives. 

As Coupa has long focused on a broader source-to-pay strategy, offering solutions that far exceed the functionality of its original transactional core, the company has made a high level of investments to build out its platform into a more holistic spend management tool. As the firm introduces new modules, Coupa will benefit from alignment with a larger number of spend use-cases, greater suite synergies, and more cross-selling opportunities. Further, a growing community will reinforce Coupa’s AI-based community intelligence offering, providing higher value prescriptive insights to optimize spend decisions. Coupa’s moat is supported by strong user metrics, with gross retention above 95% and net retention exceeding 110%. While adoption of Coupa’s BSM platform has grown rapidly, cumulative spend under management has far outpaced sequential customer and recently surpassed $3 trillion. Coupa’s market opportunity is considered to be significant as it is pioneering a largely untapped market opportunity in cloud-based unified spend management.

Financial Strengths 

Coupa is in a decent financial position. As of January 2022, Coupa had $729.5 million in cash and marketable securities versus $1.6 billion in convertible debt. In June 2019 and June 2020, Coupa issued $805 million of convertible senior notes, due 2025 and convertible at $159.60 per share, and $1.38 billion of convertible senior notes, due 2026 and convertible at $296.45 per share, respectively. Coupa has yet to achieve GAAP profitability, as the company remains focused on reinvesting excess returns back into the company, both on an organic and inorganic basis, to build out the platform and enhance future growth prospects. While Coupa has invested heavily in acquisitions over the past five fiscal years, allocating well over $1.0 billion to inorganic investments, acquisition activity is expected to slow as the platform is virtually complete. Coupa does not pay a dividend, nor repurchase stock, and for a young company pioneering a novel offspring under the ERP umbrella, it is only appropriate that the company focuses capital allocation on reinvestments for growth. Even so, the firm has historically demonstrated strong cash flows, with free cash flow margins averaging 16% over the last three fiscal years. While cash flows were pressured in fiscal 2021 and 2022 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, healthy free cash flows are expected in later years. 

Coupa reached non-GAAP profitability in 2019, posting both a positive non-GAAP operating margin and positive non-GAAP earnings from then on. The company has averaged a non-GAAP operating margin of 9.9% since 2019, and as the company scales, non-GAAP operating margins are projected to reach into the high-20% range at the end of the 10-year forecast period. These positive results should translate to profitability on a GAAP basis in the future as well.

Bulls Say

  • Coupa has strong user retention metrics, with gross retention above 95% and net dollar retention north of 110%. 
  • As Coupa expands its platform both organically and inorganically, increasing suite synergies are anticipated to accelerate cross-selling activity, further entrenching customers within Coupa and creating greater monetization opportunities. 
  • Continual annual subscription price point increases reflect the stickiness of Coupa’s modules and suggest significant competitive differentiation in winning new deals over less expensive alternatives.

Company Description

Coupa Software is a cloud-based provider of business spend management, or BSM, solutions. Coupa’s BSM platform provides visibility into all spend, allowing companies to gain control over their spending, optimize their supplier network and supply chains, and manage liquidity. The platform’s transactional core consists of procurement, invoicing, expense management, and payment solutions, while supporting modules ranging from strategic sourcing solutions to supply chain design and planning solutions round out the comprehensive spend management ecosystem. 

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Look Inside oOh media for Value as Investors Head Outside on Macro Risks

Business Strategy & Outlook

OOh media is strongly-positioned to benefit from the positive dynamics driving the Australian (and New Zealand) outdoor advertising industry. This has seen outdoors’s share of the total advertising pie lift from 3.5% in 2009 to 5.7% prior to COVID-19. The trend continuing, especially as the Australian outdoor medium’s share still lags Canada (8%), the United Kingdom (6%), and the global average of 6%-plus. Our view is based on three structurally related tailwinds. First, unlike other traditional media, outdoor audience is increasing. This is due to population growth, greater living density, and increasing commuter traffic on major roads, public transport and in retail precincts–fertile areas for marketers struggling to reach mass audiences in a fragmenting world. Second, a key Achilles heel for the outdoor advertising industry was the lack of reliable audience measurement. However, with the 2010 launch of measurement of Outdoor Visibility and Exposure, or MOVE, the medium now has greater legitimacy and offers a more robust way for marketers to assess the return on money allocated to outdoor advertising. Third, in contrast to its debilitating impact on other traditional media, digital technology is a growth facilitator for the outdoor industry. Converting a traditional outdoor advertising site to a digital one is attractive to marketers as it allows creative flexibility, immediacy and premium presentation. Digital conversion also benefits the outdoor advertising operator as it attracts new clients, allows greater inventory utilization and offers yield management flexibility. 

However, like all players in the outdoor advertising space, oOh media’s business model hinges on its portfolio of leasehold concessions. The contract duration for the roads segment is generally five to 10 years, typically with an extension option for another five years. The retail and place divisions are more varied, with renewal agreements generally directly negotiated. The risk is not the group failing to renew these concessions, but the terms on which they will be renewed.

Financial Strengths 

At the end of December 2021, net debt/EBITDA was 0.8 times, pre AASB 16. This to remain below 1.0 for the foreseeable future and within the renegotiated 3.25 covenant limit. The current dividend payout policy is reasonably conservative at between 40% and 60% of net profits after tax but before amortization acquired intangibles, allowing further investment in digitization and technology. However, due to the uncertain impact of the coronavirus outbreak, there were no dividends in 2020. But dividends were reinstated in early 2022 and to grow solidly over the next three years.

Bulls Say

  • Outdoor advertising is a growth medium benefiting from structural tailwinds such as increasing audience, more reliable measurement, and conversion of inventory to digital. 
  • Australian outdoors’s 5% share of the total advertising pie still lags Canada (8%), the U.K. (7%), and the global average of 6%-plus. 
  • OOh media may have failed in its attempt to merge with APN Outdoor in 2017, but it completed the acquisition of Adshel in September 2018 and there is an opportunity to extract sizable synergies from the combination.

Company Description

OOh media operates a network of outdoor advertising sites with a commanding share of the Australian market, and has also presence in New Zealand. It boasts a diverse portfolio of locations to service the needs of outdoor advertisers, and is particularly strong in the roadside billboard and retail (such as shopping malls) segments. OOh media offers these services by entering into lease arrangements with owners of outdoor sites–effectively an intermediary allowing site owners to monetize their visible space in high-traffic areas. In late September 2018, the group completed the acquisition of Adshel from HT&E for AUD 570 million, a deal that cements its competitive position in the face of industry consolidation

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

We Increase Lufthansa’s FVE as We Update Our Model

Business Strategy & Outlook

Deutsche Lufthansa is a European network carrier utilizing a hub-and-spoke model. Its major hubs are Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna, and Zurich and flies under the Lufthansa, Swiss Air, and Austrian Airlines brands. As a result of the coronavirus downturn the group embarked on a cost and fleet restructuring program, which will see it emerge as a smaller business. Despite the smaller size the group to become a more profitable business as a result of structural cost reductions and fleet efficiencies and forecast EBIT growth of 8.5% per year to 2026 from 2019 pre coronavirus levels. However, the negative about the prospects for shareholder value creation due to the high level of indebtedness. 

In 2020, the group received a government-backed support package totaling EUR 9 billion, which included an equity stake of 20% by the German government for EUR 306 million. As part of the approval process the European Commission required the group to surrender 26 slots at its Frankfurt and Munich hubs to new competitors. Despite the recent EUR 2.1 billion rights issue, the group remains highly indebted, which may require additional capital restructuring if cash flows don’t recover to suitable levels to deleverage organically. Due to the group’s indebtedness and highly uncertain timing of a recovery in cash flows, there is still a wide range of possible outcomes for the group’s equity value. The company will retire and dispose of its older fleet, which will see the group emerge with 100 to 150 fewer aircraft than its current 760-strong fleet. The group is in the process of restructuring its cost base and aims to reduce its current 138,000 employees by 16% and cut the management team by 20% by 2022. The group can drive higher load factors as a result of better utilization of a more efficient fleet and emerge with a structurally higher EBIT margin of 8% in 2025, which compares with an average margin of 7% over the five years pre-COVID-19.

Financial Strengths 

The Lufthansa is in a weak financial position due to its high levels of indebtedness. The coronavirus pandemic dealt a heavy blow to the aviation industry, resulting in record losses, cash outflows, and growing debt levels. To bolster liquidity, the group agreed to a EUR 9 billion government support package, which included the German state taking a 20% ownership in the group. Net debt, including pension provisions of EUR 7.6 billion, at the end of December 2021 equated to EUR 15.6 billion. The group is highly geared, with a net debt to prepandemic EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times, and it could require multiple years of deleveraging to restore the balance sheet to maintainable levels.

Bulls Say

  • COVID-19 presents the group with a unique opportunity to structurally lower its cost base and emerge from the crisis with better profitability. 
  • The airline has dominant positions at the key European hubs of Frankfurt and Munich, which could be an early beneficiary of a recovery in air travel. 
  • Fleet reduction through the retirement of older and less efficient aircraft could lead to a more rational fleet with higher load factors and unit revenue.

Company Description

Deutsche Lufthansa is a European airline group. The company operates under the Lufthansa, Swiss Air, Austrian Airlines and Euro wings brands. In 2019, the company carried 145 million passengers to its network of 318 destinations globally. The group’s main airport hubs are Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna and Zurich. The company generated sales of EUR 36.4 billion in 2019. 

(Source: Morningstar)

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