Category: Sectors

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Global stocks Shares

Capri’s Faces COVID-19 Disruptions and Intense Competition While Working on its brands

Powered by store openings and retail expansion in the 2010-15 period, Michael Kors became one of the largest American handbag producers in sales and units. However, over the past five years, growth has stalled due to markdowns of bags at third-party retail and declining sales at company-owned stores. While Capri has reduced distribution to limit discounting of Michael Kors bags, competition in the American handbag market is fierce and growth is limited. Moreover, the company is in the process of closing more than 100 Michael Kors stores.

Capri spent a steep $3.4 billion to purchase Jimmy Choo and Versace to boost its status as a luxury house and reduce its dependence on Michael Kors. However, we do not think these deals have changed Capri’s no-moat status as the acquired brands have more fashion risk, less profitability, and narrower appeal than Michael Kors. Capri is investing in store remodels, store openings, and expanding the set of accessories for both Jimmy Choo and Versace, but we don’t think these efforts will yield the intended gains, particularly given the severe interruption we expect from COVID-19. 

We believe Michael Kors lacks the brand strength (and ultimately pricing power) to provide an economic moat for Capri, rating poorly on the criteria that Morningstar uses to evaluate luxury brands, in contrast to others such as narrow-moat Tapestry’s Coach.

Financial Strength

Capri has debt, but it is very manageable. At the end of June 2021, it had total shortand long-term debt of $1.3 billion, but it also had more than $350 million in cash. Capri, though, has $1.3 billion in available borrowing capacity it amended its revolving and term loan credit agreement.Thus, Capri has no significant debt maturities prior to 2023. Capri has also recently modified its debt covenants, allowing a maximum leverage ratio of 3.75 times. Its debt/adjusted EBITDA was 2.3 times at the end of fiscal 2021, and we forecast this will decline to 1.2 times at the end of fiscal 2022. The firm averaged more than $500 million in annual buybacks in fiscal 2015-20. We now forecast its share repurchases at an annual average of about $630 million over the next decade. However, Capri does not pay dividends. We forecast its fiscal 2021 capital expenditures will rise to $205 million (3.9% of sales) from just $111 million (2.7% of sales) last year. Long term, we forecast Capri’s annual capital expenditures as a percentage of sales at 4.3% as management works to improve the performance at Jimmy Choo and Versace.

Bulls Say

  • Michael Kors is one of the largest brands in terms of units and sales in the high-margin handbag market, and we think this positioning should aid its prospects as it looks to grow in complementary categories like footwear.
  • Michael Kors has reduced its dependence on wholesale customers, which we view favorably as increased direct-to-consumer sales allow for better pricing and control over marketing.
  • The acquisitions of Jimmy Choo and Versace afford diversification opportunities by bringing two luxury brands that maintain products with high price points into the fold.

Company Profile

Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo are the brands that comprise Capri Holdings. Capri markets, distributes, and retails upscale accessories and apparel. Michael Kors, Capri’s largest and original brand, offers handbags, footwear, and apparel through more than 800 company-owned stores, third-party retailers, and e-commerce. Milan-based Versace (acquired in 2018) is known for its ready-to-wear luxury fashion. Jimmy Choo (acquired in 2017) is best known for women’s luxury footwear. John Idol has served as CEO since he was part of a group that acquired Michael Kors in 2003.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

Argo Global provides capital growth, dividend income and diversified portfolio to investors

Smiling young social worker sitting at table with senior lady and explaining document content to her

Being an LIC, it is a close-ended fund with liquidity as it is traded in the secondary market. The total market capitalization is $328.3m and dividend yield is 3.7%.

The Company provides access to a portfolio which is managed by Cohen & Steers; it is a well-regarded asset management firm with a stable, experienced and well-resourced investment team.

The downside of the LIC is that the company has traded primarily at a discount to pre-tax NTA since listing in July 2015. Their management fees are at the higher end in comparison to the listed peer group.

The opportunities offered by this LIC is that it helps investors to diversify their existing portfolio with an infrastructure as an asset class as the returns generated by it are less volatile than the equities market. Investments in infrastructure generally acts as an inflation-hedged income stream.

The portfolio is actively managed and typically hold 50-100 securities. At least 80% of the portfolio will be invested in global listed infrastructure securities, up to 20% can be invested in global infrastructure fixed income securities and up to 5% of the portfolio can be held in cash.

ALI seeks to provide investors a total return, consisting of capital growth and dividend income, from a diversified long-only portfolio of global listed infrastructure securities that outperforms the Benchmark (FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index, net total return, AUD) over the long-term.

About the company:

Argo Global Listed Infrastructure Limited is a Listed Investment Company (LIC) that listed on the ASX in July 2015. Argo Service Company Pty Ltd (ASCO), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Argo Investments Limited (ARG), is the Manager of the Company and has appointed Cohen & Steers as the Portfolio Manager. Cohen & Steers is a global investment manager in long-life assets, including infrastructure, real estate securities, natural resource companies, commodity futures and fixed-income securities.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

VanEck MSCI: A great quality-factor-focussed passive solution for world developed-markets equity

The benchmark is based on its parent index, the MSCI World ex Australia Index, which includes large and mid cap stocks across 22 developed countries. The top 300 ranked securities are chosen to constitute the quality index and cover around 30% to 40% total market capital as the portfolio tilts towards the large companies. No country or a sector constrains are implemented in the quality index, although a 5% limit is imposed for individual holdings.

Portfolio 

The ETF fully mirrors the composition of the MSCI World ex Australia Quality Hedged Index its large holding is Microsoft account for 5.4% of assets, which is effectively diversifies firm-specific risk. Information technology has been the largest sector exposure 38.9%, reflecting the dominance of tech stocks over the developed markets quality growth spectrum. Financial Exposure 4.7% is discernibly underweight compared with the MSCI World ex Australia Index. 

People

Chesler is an industry veteran with more than 25 years of experience across Sunstone partners, perpetual limited and liberty. Hannah joined VanEck investment in 2014 source ETF, where he was part of the investment management team. 

Performance 

QHAL has delivered superlative performance since its launch till August 2021. Its lack to exposure to small and mid-caps, paired with the quality growth orientation of the portfolio stemming from overweighting in information technology and healthcare, have been the drivers of outperformance since inception. However, currency hedging has been the prime contributor to robust performance as the AUD appreciated against the USD over the trailing two years till August 2021. Launched in early 2019, the ETF has outperformed the category index and category average rival by 4.8% and 6.6% till 31 July 2021, ranking in the in the first quintile of its category.

QHAL Performance History.png

About the Fund

QHAL gives investors exposure to a diversified portfolio of quality international companies from developed markets (ex Australia) with returns hedged into Australian dollars. QHAL aims to provide investment returns before fees and other costs which track the performance of the Index.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Zoom and Five9 Terminate Merger Agreement; FVE Remains unchanged

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM: Analysts work on the trading floor at Goldman Sachs in London, 22 March 2004. AFP PHOTO / ODD ANDERSEN (Photo credit should read ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images)

It provides video telephony and online chat services through a cloud-based peer-to-peer software-platform and is used for teleconferencing, telecommunication, distance education and social relations. Zoom is a recognized market leader in meeting software and is disrupting and expanding the $43 billion video conferencing market with its ease of use and superior user experience. 

Zoom relies mainly on a low-touch e-commerce model that lends itself to viral adoption, but it has also established a direct salesforce to gather and serve larger, more strategic customers. The company has been adept at adding users, especially during COVID-19-induced lockdowns, and it also has several related products to upsell. Even as the lockdowns are loosening, customer retention has been better than expected.

With the 2019 introduction of Zoom Phone, which it does not plan to sell to customers who do not already have Zoom Meetings, Zoom Apps and OnZoom, the portfolio is expanding meaningfully. The company’s focus is squarely on adding as many users as possible. This starts with generating buzz and familiarity with free users, while the direct salesforce sells to enterprise accounts. Customers are growing rapidly, with larger customers numbering more than 1,999, while smaller customers total approximately 497,000.

Zoom and Five9 Terminate Merger Agreement; $252 FVE unchanged

Our $252 fair value estimate is unchanged after no-moat Zoom announced that it was terminating its $14.7 billion merger agreement for Five9. This is not entirely surprising after the Sept. 17 news that Institutional Shareholder Services recommended to Five9 shareholders that they vote against the merger coupled with the announcement several days later that the Department of Justice was investigating the acquisition. We view this as unfortunate, as the acquisition would have expanded the portfolio while deepening switching costs and creating cross-selling opportunities. We suspect that the company will continue to pursue smaller deals but believe national security issues will creep up again in larger transactions.

At the time of the announcement, we viewed the deal as strategically sharp, so we similarly view the cancellation as less than ideal. Fortunately, at its investor day on Sept. 13, Zoom announced the Zoom Video Engagement Center for customer engagement would launch in early 2022, with initial use cases targeting wealth management, doctor visits, and retail shopping. Two weeks ago, we wondered how the company would integrate this solution with Five9 when that acquisition closes. In short, we now think Zoom has the makings of an organic contact center solution, and still has a long-standing partnership with Five9 to leverage in the near term. With the rapid success of Zoom Phone as a test case, swollen coffers and strong margins, we expect the company to develop VEC relatively quickly.

Bulls Say

  • Both the Zoom user base and the company’s revenue have grown rapidly and are expected to continue to do so over the next several years. 
  • Zoom offers a disruptive technology that is designed from the ground up as a video-first collaboration platform. Customer satisfaction is well above video conferencing peers.
  •  Zoom’s low-touch, low-friction model should eventually drive strong margins. The company has already produced a full year of positive GAAP profitability, which is well ahead of other high-growth software.

Company Profile

Zoom Video Communications provides a communications platform that connects people through video, voice, chat, and content sharing. The company’s cloud-native platform enables face-to-face video and connects users across various devices and locations in a single meeting. Zoom, which was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in San Jose, California, serves companies of all sizes from all industries around the world.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

BioNTech’s COVID-19 Vaccine Success Could Help It Build a Moat on mRNA Technology

The emerging biotech’s first commercial vaccine, for COVID-19, received its first authorization in December 2020, and its early-stage pipeline and mRNA technology platforms have caught the eye of several large pharmaceutical companies, resulting in collaborations and partnerships.

Further, the company has a burgeoning vaccine pipeline for infectious diseases. In partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, BioNTech is developing vaccines for HIV and tuberculosis, and the company’s COVID-19 program in partnership with Pfizer and Fosun Pharma was built off an existing partnership with Pfizer for an influenza vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty (BNT162b2), quickly progressed through human trials, culminating in authorization in the United States and Europe in December 2020. 

Company’s Future Outlook

We think the vaccine’s excellent efficacy, strong supply, and early leadership on the market all support $35 billion in Comirnaty sales in 2021 and $43 billion in 2022 (BioNTech books half of Pfizer’s gross profits, profit share from other smaller partners, and direct sales in Germany and Turkey). However, the long-term market for coronavirus vaccines is uncertain, and even if there is demand for continued vaccination in the long run, we expect the market to be competitive.

BioNTech’s COVID-19 Vaccine Success Could Help It Build a Moat on mRNA Technology

We believe BioNTech has a positive moat trend due to strengthening intangible assets in its pipeline. Over the next five years, we expect several data readouts, assets progressing through trials, and even the company’s first potential approval. Further, testing new combinations of treatments, which tends to improve efficacy in cancer treatment, will also strengthen the competitive position of BioNTech’s platforms. 

The positive results and subsequent authorization of BNT162b2, BioNTech’s vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, support our positive moat trend rating. While the long-term profit outlook for BNT162b2 remains uncertain, we believe its success demonstrates the potential of the company’s mRNA vaccine platform.

Financial Strength 

BioNTech has historically burned through cash to fund research and development of its pipeline. The company has minimal debt on its balance sheet, as it has funded discovery and development with equity issues,collaboration payments from partnerships with large pharmaceutical firms as well as a large inflow of cash from Comirnaty gross profits in 2021 and 2022 and believe this will continue for long term basis.Outside of BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates, we think the earliest approval could arrive in 2023, which would put the company on a path toward steady profitability. Management has taken advantage of a couple of opportunities to acquire early-stage assets and expand its geographic footprint to establish a U.S. research hub at low prices. We expect the near-term focus for capital allocation to remain on its pipeline of vaccines and other therapies.

Bull Says

  • BioNTech’s pipeline, which relies on expertise in mRNA and bioinformatics, will be difficult to replicate by competitors. 
  • BioNTech will be able to command a premium price with its personalized cancer therapies, if successful. 
  • The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty bodes well for the rest of BioNTech’s pipeline and the future of its mRNA research platform.

Company Profile

BioNTech is a Germany-based biotechnology company that focuses on developing cancer therapeutics, including individualized immunotherapy, as well as vaccines for infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The company’s oncology pipeline contains several classes of drugs, including mRNA-based drugs to encode antigens, neoantigens, cytokines, and antibodies; cell therapies; bispecific antibodies; and small-molecule immunomodulators. BioNTech is partnered with several large pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Genmab. Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine) is its first commercialized product.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

BMW Attractively Valued Despite Chip Shortage, Coronavirus, and Higher Spending on Electrification

especially in powertrains. BMW continues to outperform the overall car market despite global economic uncertainties from the coronavirus and is one of only a handful of automakers to which we assign an economic moat. As emerging-market consumers become wealthier, many will purchase luxury items for the first time.

BMW has consistently produced vehicles that command superior pricing and generated revenue increases above global vehicle growth rates. From 2004 to 2019, worldwide light-vehicle sales grew at a 2.7% average annualized rate. During the same 15-year period, BMW consolidated revenue and automobile unit volume grew at annual averages of 6.0% and 5.3%, respectively. BMW also has long-term goals to generate automotive segment return on capital employed of equal to or greater than 40% and an automotive segment EBIT margin of 8%-10%.

Financial Strength

BMW enjoys solid financial health with flexible balance sheet. The company has averaged 14.8% industrial EBITDA margins (including China JV equity income and excluding financial services) for the past 15 years, generating solid cash flow and enabling moderate dividend payments to shareholders. With the financial services group accounted for on an equity basis, balance sheet leverage has been overly conservative with an average total debt/total capital ratio of 6.2% during the past 10 years.Also excluding financial services, manufacturing operations’ total adjusted debt/EBITDAR averages a very low 0.6 times.

BMW’s liquidity position as extremely robust, with the manufacturing operations’ cash and marketable securities balance of EUR 9.5 billion and syndicated credit line availability of EUR 8 billion at the end of March 2020. BMW’s credit line expires in July 2024. BMW’s consolidated total debt/total capital ratio, including financial services has averaged 63.2% over the past 10 years.

Bulls Say’s

  • BMW possesses sustainable competitive advantages, given the strength and global recognition of the brands, technological leadership in powertrains, and ability to command premium pricing from consumers that regularly rate its vehicles as some of the best toown, resulting in excess returns.
  • BMW’s presence in global markets reduces reliance on any one regional economy and improves growth prospects as developing markets offset mature regions.
  • The BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce brand images command a premium among consumers in all parts of the world.

Company Profile 

In addition to being one of the world’s leading premium light-vehicle manufacturers, BMW Group produces BMW motorcycles and provides financial services. Premium light-vehicle brands include BMW, Mini, and ultraluxury brand Rolls-Royce. Operations include 31 production facilities in 15 countries, with a sales network reaching over 140 countries. In 2020, worldwide sales volume exceeded 2.3 million automobiles and more than 179,000 motorcycles.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Crown Resorts net operating cash outflows of $14m

Investment Thesis

  • Broader economic recovery and cashed up consumer.
  • Under normal trading conditions, CWN has quality mature assets, which are highly cash generative and difficult to replicate.
  • New Sydney casino (if allowed to retain the casino license) could offer a significant step change in earnings for CWN.
  • CWN is leveraged to growth in Australian tourism.
  • Corporate activity given the stronghold of a cornerstone investor is slowly eroding.
  • Capital management initiatives – additional special dividends or share buy-backs.

Key Risks

  • Competitive pressures, including international (for VIP play) and domestic competitors.
  • Return of international tourists to Australia ahead of expectations.
  • Credit-rating risk (given our expectation of significant capital expenditure over the next five years).
  • Regulatory risk – several inquiries are being held against various Crown casinos. Adverse outcomes to materially alter the outlook.
  • Capital expenditure fails to deliver adequate returns

FY21 Result Summary

  • Statutory revenue of $1,536.8m declined -31.3%, theoretical EBITDA before closure cand significant items) of $241.7m was down -52% (reported EBITDA of $114.1m down -77.4%) and theoretical NPAT attributable to the parent (before closure costs and significant items) a loss of $84.2m vs $161m profit in pcp (reported NPAT attributable to the parent a loss of $261.6m vs $79.5m profit in pcp).
  • Net significant items expense of $54.6m (net of tax) relating to Crown Sydney pre-opening costs, one-off allowance for expected credit losses, restructuring costs, asset impairments, and underpayments of casino tax by Crown Melbourne, offset by profit on disposal of Crown Sydney apartments which settled during the period.
  • The Board scrapped the final dividend.
  • Net operating cash outflow of $14m (vs net operating cash flow of $326.9m in pcp), reflecting severe impacts on the operations from the Covid-19 pandemic. Capex of $559.1m was down -25% over pcp, primarily relating to the continued construction of Crown Sydney.
  • Total liquidity (excluding working capital cash) was $560.8m comprising $390.1m in available cash and $170.7m in  committed undrawn facilities. Net debt position of $892.9m remained almost flat over pcp (though declined – 28% over 1H21).

Company Profile 

Crown Resorts Ltd (CWN) is Australia’s largest operator of casinos along with hotels and conference centre facilities. In Australia, CWN owns and operates Crown Melbourne Entertainment Complex and Crown Perth Entertainment Complex which services mass market and VIP segments. Overseas, CWN also owns and operates Crown Aspinall’s in London. CWN also has a portfolio of other gaming investments. CWN’s wagering and on-line social gaming operations include Betfair Australasia (a 100% owned, on-line betting exchange) and DGN Games (a 70% owned, on-line social gaming business based in Austin, Texas).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Praemium Ltd balance sheet remains strong with cash reserves of $26.7m

Businesswoman pointing at diagram in her hands when explaining marketing trends to her team during online meeting

Investment Thesis

  • Merger with powerwrap creates a much better capitalized and resourced competitor in the market, with significant opportunities for synergies.
  • Increase diversification via geography and product offering.
  • Increase competition amongst platform providers such as HUB24, Wealth O2, BT panorama, Netwealth, North Platform, etc.
  • Very attractive Australian industry dynamics – Australian superannuation assets expected to grow at 8.1% p.a to A$9.5 trillion by 2035.
  • Disruptive technology and hold a leading position to grow funds under advice via SMAs.
  • The fallout from the Royal Commission into Australian banking has led to increased inquiries for PPS’ product/services.
  • Growing and maturing SMSF market = more SMSF demand for tailored and specific solutions.
  • Both-on acquisitions to supplement organic growth.
  • Further consolidation in the sector could benefit PPS.

Key Risks

  • Execution risk – delivering on PPS’s strategy or acquisition.
  • Contract or key client loss.
  • Competitive platform/offering.
  • Associated risks in relation to system, technology and software.
  • Operational risks related to service levels and the potential for breaches.
  • Regulatory changes within the wealth management industry.
  • Increased competition from major banks and financial institutions.

FY21 Results Summary

  • Australian business segment delivered revenue growth of +37% over pcp to $53.1m, driven by Platform revenue increase of+73% to $36.5m with Powerwrap revenue of $16.3m amid strong underlying growth from record platform inflows and Portfolio services revenue increase of +6% to $16.1m with VMAAS revenue up +40% from continued portfolio on-boarding. EBITDA declined -2% to $19m, primarily due to the transition of the Powerwrap cost base and some cost expansion to support growth and service across sales, marketing and operations (EBITDA margins declined -14% to 36%), however, management forecast growth investments and scale benefits from Powerwrap synergies will drive improved earnings into FY22.
  • International net revenue (net of product commissions) increased +6% over pcp to $12.5m, driven by Platform revenue growth of +30% to $8.1m from record inflows driving International platform FUA to $5bn (up+ 55%), partially offset by declines in the Smartfund range of managed funds, with fund revenue down -47% to $1.5m. Expenses were up +2% to $16.4m from operational capability to support growth, partially offset by continued cost management. EBITDA loss declined -7% to $3.9m, comprising UK’s EBITDA loss of $1.4m (27% improvement), Asia’s EBITDA loss of $0.9m (1% increase) and the inclusion of Dubai’s cost centre of $1.6m (up 17%).

Company Profile 

Praemium Limited (PPS) is an Australian fintech company which provides portfolio administration, investment platforms and financial planning tools to the wealth management industry.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Despite Covid-19 disruptions, Virtus FY21 results show turnaround in earnings

Young serious business woman explaining her idea to colleague when they are having meeting and discussing charts and reports

Investment Thesis:

  • Ageing Australian population and increased age of mothers (especially with the trend of more females choosing career over family until their early thirties) will provide favorable demographic tailwinds
  • Potential accretive acquisitions domestically and internationally
  • Domestic acquisition of other laboratories will consolidate VRT geographic expansion strategy along the eastern seaboard of Australia
  • Earnings increasingly become diversified as international segments are expected to become a larger contributor 
  • Solid balance sheet with flexibility to execute expansion strategies
  • New management for Victorian business to turn results around 
  • Market-leading position with ~40% of domestic market share

Key Risks:

  • Regulatory risk as changes in government funding may increase patient’s out-of-pocket expenses and thereby decrease volume demand 
  • Fluctuations in the availability and size of Medicare rebates may negatively influence the number of IVF cycles administered and overall industry revenue 
  • Weakening cycle activity continues to adversely impact revenues
  • Increased competition from low-cost providers 
  • Weakening economic activity resulting in increased unemployment leading to less disposable income to be spent in IVF treatment 
  • Execution of international forays goes poorly 
  • Population of males and females with fertility problems decline

Key highlights:

  • Total market capitalization of Virtus Health Ltd. is A$538.9m
  • Relative to the pcp, revenue was up +25.4%, adjusted EBITDA up +44.2%, and adjusted NPAT up more than 100%, driven by global fresh IVF cycles of 23,994, up +26.4%
  • Separate to FY21 results, VRT announced the acquisition of Adora Fertility and 3 day hospitals from Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS) for $45.0m.
  • Revenue $324.6m was up +25.4%
  • Reported EBITDA of $93.4m, was up significantly from $46.2m in FY20
  • Reported NPAT of $43.1m improved significantly from $0.5m in FY20
  • VRT’s leverage ratio (Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA) declined to 1.5x (vs 2.2x in FY20)
  • Total dividends of 24.0cps vs 12cps in pcp. Forward dividend payout guidance was reduced to 45-55% (from 60-70% historically)
  • By segments, financials are as follows:
    • Australia: Revenue of $259.5m was up +24.4%, which drove segment EBITDA up +30.1% to $97.6m
    • International: EBITDA of $15.3m was up +68.1%

Company Description: 

Virtus Health Ltd (ASX: VRT) is a global provider of assisted reproductive services. The group’s main activity is providing patients with Assisted Reproductive Services such as specialized diagnostics, fertility clinics and day hospital services. It has 116 fertility specialists who are supported by over 1100 professional staff and is the largest network and provider of fertility services in Australia and Ireland, with a growing presence in Singapore. Virtus is one of three major players which collectively control more than 80% of market share and was the first infertility treatment company in the world to float on the stock market.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Temple & Webster Group delivered solid FY21 results driven by customer’s adoption of online shopping

Investment Thesis

  • Operates in a large addressable market – B2C furniture and homewares category is approx. $16bn. 
  • Structural tailwinds – ongoing migration to online in Australia in the homewares and furniture segment. At the moment less than 10% of TPW’s core market is sold online versus the U.S. market where the penetration rate is around 25%. 
  • Strong revenue growth suggests TPW can continue to win market share and become the leader in its core markets. 
  •  Active customer growth remains strong, with revenue per customer also increasing at a solid rate. 
  •  Management is very focused on reinvesting in the business to grow top line growth and capture as much market share as possible. Whilst this comes at the expense of margins in the short term, the scale benefits mean rapid margin expansion could be easily achieved. 
  • Strong balance sheet to take advantage of any in-organic (M&A) growth opportunities, however management is likely to be very disciplined. 
  •  Ongoing focus on using technology to improve the customer experience – TPW has invested in merging the online with the offline experience through augmented reality (AR).

Key Risk

  • Rising competitive pressures. 
  • Any issues with supply chain, especially because of the impact of Covid-19 on logistics, which affects earnings / expenses. 
  •  Rising cost pressures eroding margins (e.g., more brand or marketing investment required due to competitive pressures). 
  • Disappointing earnings update or failing to achieve growth rates expected by the market could see the stock price significantly re-rate lower. 
  •  Trading on high PE-multiples / valuations means the Company is more prone to share price volatility.

FY21 results highlights. 

  • Group revenue was up +85% to $326.2, with 4Q21 revenue up +26% YoY despite cycling a period which saw growth of +130%. 
  •  Gross profit was up +88% to $148m, with gross profit margin increasing to 45.4% from 44.6%. This was primarily driven by increasing private label penetration, which increased to 26% of group sales vs 19% in the prior year. Private labels had higher margin vs drop-ship sales (i.e., drop-ship means TPW takes no inventory risk and works with their >500 local distributors), given TPW source directly from the factory.  
  • Delivered margin increased +87% to $100.7m, however was impacted by one-off distribution costs in the 2H21 due to some local shortages in 3PL space and TPW had to store product in more expensive alternate sites. 
  •  Contribution margin after one-off distribution came in at 14.6% as percentage of revenue vs 15.5% in pcp. Management is aiming to keep the contribution margin in the range of 12 – 15% over the short to medium term to support their reinvestment strategy to aggressively target market share via improved pricing, tactical promotional activity, and higher investment in brand building initiatives. 
  • Group adjusted EBITDA of $20.5m was significantly higher (up +141%) than $8.5m in the pcp, with a margin of 6.3% (vs 4.8% in pcp). 
  •  Balance sheet is solid, with cash balance of $97.5m

Trending Update:“The year got off to a fantastic start with a 39 percent increase in income from July 1 to July 24. TPW benefit from tailwinds, such as the adoption of online shopping as a result of these structural and demographic developments, as well as the acceleration of transitive Covid. Following that, an increase in discretionary spending due to travel constraints and, as we all know, the housing market’s continuous resurgence. As Mark stated, “we will continue to engage in growth there as a business, vastly increasing our online market leadership and driving market share.”

Company Profile

Temple & Webster Group (TPW) is a leading online retailer in Australia, which offers consumers access to furniture, homewares, home décor, arts, gifts, and lifestyle products.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.