Category: Global stocks

Global Stock refer to share that are traded on multiple exchanges with different currencies. For example, if a publicly-traded company issues shares in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange and in pounds on the London Stock Exchange, it is issuing global registered shares. Global stock to a portfolio offers diversification and may provide higher returns. Global stock markets may experience higher levels of volatility than other domestic markets with bigger swings to both the upside and downside.

Categories
Global stocks

Boston Beer Faces Shipment Declines as Hard Seltzer Continues to Struggle

Business Strategy & Outlook:
Though much smaller than the brewing behemoths, Boston Beer is well positioned in malt categories, boasting a meaningful growth profile that mainstream beer lacks. The firm has shown a remarkable proclivity to not only augment its portfolio in alignment with the latest growth vectors but to also capture a disproportionate share of the economic rents generated from this growth by being one of the first movers. One can see this exemplified in the company’s participation in the initial rises of craft beer, cider, and more recently, hard seltzer. While seltzer trends have slowed significantly, its surmise sales at Boston Beer will continue to be supported by secular consumption shifts (such as the desire for a low-sugar footprint and varied flavor profiles, and as evidenced by the success of Truly Margarita and the launch of Truly Vodka Seltzer).

To admit Boston Beer’s growth trajectory is not without risk. Due to the torrid growth that hard seltzer had achieved in prior years, a slew of new entrants led to dizzying saturation that has had a discernible impact on category growth (an issue creeping into other RTD areas). Additionally, U.S. craft beer remains oversaturated as per view, with peers spanning from local upstarts to large multinationals. Microbreweries have been taking share from established players like Boston Beer, as parochial preferences seem to be driving many consumers toward locally produced beers with small and homely essences. Nevertheless, the firm has meaningful scale advantages over the thousands of small craft breweries operating in the U.S., driving superior unit economics and stellar profitability that allows it to pivot its portfolio and go-to-market approach as necessary. The 2019 Dogfish Head acquisition is an example of this, as the firm had the resources to add a fast-growing, locally resonant family of brands to its mix. Its stalwart positioning also funds fruitful innovation, from incremental initiatives such as its custom beer can, to blockbuster breakthroughs like Truly. Ultimately, to see Boston Beer as a well-run and high-quality operator and believe it has the tools to succeed in a landscape that is in flux.

Financial Strengths:
To assign Boston Beer an Exemplary capital allocation rating, as the firm stacks up admirably against two of the three pillars of framework: Its balance sheet is pristine, and its organic investments have unequivocally been value-accretive in view. While to take a mixed view of its distribution philosophy, to expect investments to be the pre-eminent driver of future shareholder returns, and the company’s suboptimal corporate governance, while worth highlighting, has not had a demonstrably adverse impact on capital allocation up to this point. Regarding investments, as per view on the management team is constructive, and to see as particularly impressive the brewer’s innovation track record across multiple categories and consequent ability to align its portfolio with this century’s malt growth vectors. Boston Beer’s current CEO, Dave Burwick, joined the firm in 2018 following an equivalent role at Peet’s Coffee & Tea as well as senior executive positions at Weight Watchers International and PepsiCo. Burwick’s tenure was preceded by Martin Roper, who announced plans to retire in 2018 after 17 years at the helm. Towering over these operational leaders has been Jim Koch, who founded Boston Beer in 1984, chairs its board, and remains integrally involved in the company’s strategic direction. To believe Koch, his CEOs, and their respective teams, have done a commendable job providing rudder for a firm competing within a dynamic brewing landscape. This is evidenced by the brewer’s consistent positioning as an innovation bellwether within the U.S. malt space, having been at the forefront of high-growth categories like craft beer, cider, and hard seltzer. Innovative efforts into categories like hard seltzer should provide economic value ahead, as the favorable secular dynamics (chiefly health consciousness and premiumization) underpinning the category’s robust adoption (over half a decade of triple-digit growth) should persist at a more normalized level ahead. Despite being number two in the space (behind White Claw), management has fended off a deluge of competition from giants like AB InBev and Constellation Brands, maintaining or growing share. Being at the vanguard of innovation has been core to this success, and this favorable category should continue to offset challenging dynamics in craft and hard cider. The firm was all but inactive on the M&A front prior to 2019, when it consummated its largest acquisition to date of Dogfish Head, a Delaware-based craft brewery, for roughly $330 million in cash and stock.

As per the strategic rationale for the deal is prudent, as the smaller scale and local essence of Dogfish Head’s brands (which resonate more deeply with many craft drinkers) augment the growth profile of Boston Beer’s craft portfolio. However, the over 3 times forward sales multiple that was paid was a bit rich, as evidenced in the $27.1 million impairment of intangible assets the firm took in 2022 as forecasts for brand performance were below those made on the acquisition date. While ostensibly stepping back from the operational helm in 2001, one believes Jim Koch continues to wield unencumbered authority over decision-making at the company. This is so because, within the dual share class structure that the firm operates, Koch owns substantially all the class A stock, giving him the preponderance of voting rights as well as the power to elect the majority of board directors. Koch’s carte blanche is evinced not only by his voting rights but also his wife’s position as a long-standing member of the board. From the vantage point, these realities not only give rise to material key-person risk, but also a heightened probability of misaligned incentives between Jim Koch and class B common stock owners. Still, until this reality manifests in clearly injudicious capital allocation, we’ll place qualms here on the back burner. Regarding distributions, Boston Beer has never paid a dividend, instead deploying its free cash flow toward share repurchases. To take a dim view of the firm’s indiscriminate approach to share repurchases, but this view is countervailed by the fact that internal reinvestment takes precedence over cash returns in management’s capital allocation priorities. Additionally, given the company’s long-term commitment to share buybacks, to believe there have been times when buybacks have been executed at prices above intrinsic value, as well as prices below, ultimately netting to a value-neutral impact. One does not expect the company to pay a dividend throughout the explicit forecast, but continue to model meaningful repurchases, which should average around $170 million on average over the next five years.

Bulls Say:
Boston Beer competes exclusively at the high end of malt beverages, which are seen as secularly advantaged relative to mainstream and value segments.
The firm is one of two market incumbents in hard seltzer, which offers it an easier route to grow the top line through innovative product offerings.
Thanks to historical successes across the FMB and RTD products, Boston Beer has a unique ability to elevate category innovation through a well-established distribution network.

Company Description:
Boston Beer is a leader in U.S. high-end malt beverages and adjacent categories, with strong positions in craft beer, hard cider, and hard seltzer. The firm sells an array of flavor variants and package sizes, predominantly centered around four priority brands: Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea, and Truly Hard Seltzer. Its drinks are produced in both company-owned breweries as well as through third-party contract arrangements, and while the company primarily goes to market through independent wholesalers (as mandated by law), it operates a fairly large salesforce to induce demand across the value chain (distributors, retailers, and drinkers). The preponderance of revenue is generated domestically.

(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Investor Desk and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Investor Desk and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Investor Desk and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Endeavour’s retail segment is also vertically integrated, supported by Pinnacle Drinks private-label portfolio

Business Strategy & Outlook

Endeavour is Australia’s pre-eminent omnichannel liquor retailer, operating the largest network of brick-and-mortar stores throughout the country, with more than 1,600 liquor outlets across the well-known Dan Murphy’s and BWS brands. Endeavour also has substantial interests in hotels and electronic gaming machines, operating more than 12,000 gaming machines across its portfolio of more than 300 hotels, pubs, and clubs. Endeavour is one of Australia’s leading employers, with staff of more than 28,000 throughout Australia. Endeavour’s business is divided into two segments. Its retail segment is Australia’s leading omnichannel liquor retailer, while its hotels segment provides hospitality services and gambling operations. Endeavour’s retail segment is also vertically integrated, supported by Pinnacle Drinks private-label portfolio, which operates several wineries, as well as bottling and packaging facilities. Products produced are supplied exclusively to Dan Murphy’s, BWS, and ALH Group in Australia and provide a source high-margin differentiation while also minimizing supply chain risks in the wine category. Shifting consumer trends toward online shopping and convenience have led to strategic investments in online shopping platforms and delivery capabilities, such as smartphone applications for each brand and online pure-play retailers Jimmy Brings and Shorty’s Liquor. Almost 9% of all Endeavour’s liquor sales are transacted online.

Endeavour’s revenue is highly skewed to the retail segment, which will contribute approximately 85% of revenue over the next decade, with the balance coming from the hotels segment. The split is more evenly balanced at an EBT level due to the higher margins achieved in the hotels business, with approximately 65% of EBT derived through the retail business and 35% through the hotels business.

Financial Strengths 

Endeavour Group is in reasonable financial shape. Endeavour’s leverage ratio, measured as net debt/EBITDA, including lease liabilities, was approximately 3.5 at the end of June 2022. Endeavour Group’s strong market positioning and wide economic moat provide us with confidence that current gearing levels are maintainable. Interest coverage —defined as reported EBITDA/interest expense—of approximately 6 times at fiscal 2023 year-end.  A material increase, isn’t expected in the level of gearing as consistent with the investment-grade credit profile Endeavour is targeting.

Bulls Say

  • Endeavour’s dominant retail market share of about 50% is multiples of its closest competitor and provides a source of long-term maintainable cost advantage.
  • Endeavour’s partnership agreements with Woolworths allow the business to leverage the scale and capabilities of Australia’s largest supermarket.
  • Endeavour’s wide economic moat, strong competitive positioning and strong balance sheet will underpin a maintainable and steadily growing dividend.

Company Description

An investment in wide-moat-rated Endeavour Group provides investors with exposure to one of the most well entrenched dividend-paying businesses in the Australian retail landscape. Following decades of enduring organic growth through store rollouts, Endeavour’s off-premises retail segment—with more than 1,600 retail outlets mainly across its Dan Murphy’s and BWS brands—accounts for approximately half of all off-premises retail liquor sales within Australia. Endeavour’s immense scale in the off-premises retail segment is unrivaled within Australia. Indeed, Endeavour’s sales are almost three times larger than its nearest retail competitor, Coles.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

DoorDash Reports Solid Q3 Results as Consumer Demand Remains Strong as Pandemic Wanes

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

DoorDash holds the number one position as an online food order aggregator in the U.S., ahead of Uber Technologies’ Uber Eats and Grubhub. The firm is at the early stages in trying to attract a larger piece of what is estimated to be $1 trillion worth of goods and services by 2025 to its platform. DoorDash benefits from the network effects between merchants, deliverers (or “dashers”), and consumers, plus intangible assets, in the form of data, which together warrant narrow moat ratings. Consumers use DoorDash’s app to order food for pickup or delivery from restaurants. Based on data from Second Measure, DoorDash currently is the market leader in the U.S., with 56% share, above Uber’s 26% and Grubhub’s 18%. The firm has over 450,000 merchants, more than 20 million consumers, and more than 1 million dashers on its platform. It is seen that the primary market DoorDash is targeting aggressively, consumer spending on food and beverages away from home, as attractive and expect it to grow 4%-5% annually during the next five years. DoorDash has also begun to provide similar service to businesses in verticals other than restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. With strengthening of the network effect, it is expected that DoorDash will maintain its leadership position in a market where there will be only one other viable player, Uber Eats, in the long run. The firm’s network effect should also lower consumer and deliverer acquisition costs, resulting in further operating leverage and GAAP profitability in 2023. 

Risk and Uncertainty: 

DoorDash is also susceptible to blame for possible missteps in data utilization and/or lack of data privacy and security, which is also considered an ESG risk. In addition, as deliveries to consumers by DoorDash on behalf of merchants are made mainly by gig workers, the firm is likely to face continuing pressure from lawmakers to provide higher pay and more benefits, and to possibly categorize those contractors as employees, all of which is seen as another ESG risk. While voters in California sided with firms such as DoorDash and with gig workers in 2020 by approving Proposition 22, it remains uncertain what actions other voters, and other states, and federal lawmakers are likely to take. Whether the immediate change in consumer dining behavior that was observed in 2020, mainly driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, will last is also a risk. A return to the pre-pandemic normalcy could decelerate or completely stop DoorDash’s growth.

Bulls Say:

  • Consumer behavior will continue to shift away from in-restaurant dining as the variety of food and speed of delivery available at home increase. As demand for DoorDash services pushes higher, the firm should quickly reach profitability. 
  • DoorDash will succeed in delivering other goods and services, strengthening its number-one position in the U.S. 
  • More regulations such as minimum wages or more benefits may pass, but they will also create a barrier to entry and force out subscale players.

Company Description:

Founded in 2013 and headquartered in San Francisco, DoorDash is an online food order demand aggregator. Consumers can use its app to order food on-demand for pickup or delivery from merchants mainly in the U.S. The firm provides a marketplace for the merchants to create a presence online, market their offerings, and meet demand by making the offerings available for pickup or delivery. The firm provides similar service to businesses in addition to restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. At the end of 2020, DoorDash had over 450,000 merchants, 20 million consumers, and over 1 million dashers on its platform. In 2020, the firm generated $24.7 billion in gross order volume (up 207% year over year) and $2.9 billion in revenue (up 226%)

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Broadridge’s Franchises Are Robust Amid the Current Environment

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

Broadridge has been the dominant proxy and interim service provider for broker/dealers for more than 20 years. Broadridge’s regulated proxy and interim business is its crown jewel, and a disproportionate amount of the firm’s net income comes from its fiscal third and fourth quarter during proxy season. In addition, Broadridge generates about 30% of its fee revenue and profit from its global technology and operations or GTO segment, which provides securities processing solutions. Amid COVID-19, Broadridge has benefited from higher engagement of retail investors through higher position growth and elevated trading volumes. Since its spinoff from ADP in 2007, Broadridge has streamlined its operations and expanded into adjacent markets. After years of losses in its clearing business, Broadridge sold it in 2010 to Penson Worldwide. Operationally, Broadridge entered into an IT-services agreement with IBM in 2010 to increase efficiency. Expanding on its mailing, data security, and processing capabilities, Broadridge has completed numerous acquisitions. Since 2010, Broadridge has completed at least 25 acquisitions. Notable acquisitions include DST’s North American customer communications business for $410 million in 2016 and RPM Technologies for $300 million in 2019. The NACC business provides print and digital communication solutions, content management, postal optimization, and fulfillment to a variety of sectors, including financial-services firms, utilities, and healthcare firms. RPM Technologies provides enterprise wealth management software solutions and services. In May 2021, Broadridge acquired Itiviti, a provider of order and execution management trading software and order routing networking and connectivity solutions, for $2.5 billion. It is believed that the acquisition complements its existing GTO segment and while not cheap, should be accretive given low interest rates. During its December 2020 investor day, Broadridge laid out its three-year per year goals including recurring revenue growth of 7%-9% (organic: 5%-7%), adjusted operating margin expansion of 50 basis points, and adjusted EPS growth of 8%-12%. Thus far, Broadridge has largely achieved these goals.

Risk and Uncertainty: 

The biggest risk to near-term revenue and profits is equity proxy position and mutual fund interim growth. During the financial crisis, the number of equity proxy positions was down only 2% (for year ending June 30, 2009). Given the recurring nature of the equity proxy and mutual fund interims business, It is believed Broadridge’s business is relatively recession-proof. Given the regulated nature of proxy and interim communications, the fees that Broadridge can charge issuers on behalf of its broker/dealer clients is overseen by the NYSE Working Proxy Group. The last fee reviews went into effect on Jan. 1, 2014, with a very modest impact on Broadridge. Though Broadridge has historically fared well in fee reviews, it could be negatively affected in a future review. Broadridge has modest client concentration. On a firm wide basis, the largest client accounts for 6% of revenue. Within the global technology and operations segment, the firm’s largest 15 clients account for 51% of segment revenue. Broadridge generally works with its largest clients across multiple segments. From a geographic perspective, Broadridge generates about 88% of its revenue in the United States. From an environmental, social, and governance perspective, a lot of risk is not observed arising from Broadridge’s business model. Broadridge’s software and solutions service millions of users, and as a result the firm must maintain strong product governance and data security

Bulls Say:

  • Broadridge has a dominant market share position on delivering proxies and interims to beneficial shareholders. Direct indexing and the rise of the retail investor can continue to support position growth. 
  • During the financial crisis, Broadridge’s equity position count was down only 2% in 2009, indicating that its business model is close to recession-proof. 
  • Broadridge’s global technology and operations offerings are sticky and with the move toward outsourcing, Broadridge should be able to grow faster than the addressable market.

Company Description:

Broadridge, which was spun off from ADP in 2007, is a leading provider of investor communications and technology-driven solutions to banks, broker/dealers, asset managers, wealth managers, and corporate issuers. Broadridge is composed of two segments: investor communication solutions and global technology and operations.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Despite Recent Litigation Headwinds on Zantac, GSK Remains Well Positioned for Earnings Growth

Stock market digital graph chart on LED display concept. A large display of daily stock market price and quotation. Indicator financial forex trade education background.

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

As one of the largest pharmaceutical and vaccine companies, GSK has used its vast resources to create the next generation of healthcare treatments. The company’s innovative new product lineup and expansive list of patent-protected drugs create a wide economic moat. The magnitude of GSK’s reach is evidenced by a product portfolio that spans several therapeutic classes. The diverse platform insulates the company from problems with any single product. Additionally, the company has developed next-generation drugs in respiratory and HIV areas that should help mitigate both branded and generic competition. It is expected GSK to be a major competitor in respiratory, HIV, and vaccines over the next decade. On the pipeline front, GSK has shifted from its historical strategy of targeting slight enhancements toward true innovation. Also, it is focusing more on oncology and the immune system, with genetic data to help develop the next generation of drugs. The benefits of these strategies are showing up in GSK’s early-stage drugs. It is expected this focus will improve approval rates and pricing power. In contrast to respiratory drugs, treatments for cancer indications carry much strong pricing power with payers. From a geographic standpoint, GSK is strategically branching out from developed markets into emerging markets. Its vaccine segment positions the firm well in these price-sensitive markets. While this strategy is likely to create some challenges, like the potential legal violations that arose in early 2013 in China, it is believed the fast-growing emerging markets will help support long-term growth and diversify cash flows beyond developed markets. GSK’s decision to divest its consumer business will likely unlock value over the long run. GSK divested its consumer group (called Haleon) in July 2022. Given the strong valuations of consumer healthcare companies, it is expected this unit will yield a stronger valuation than what is implied within the GSK structure before the divestment.

Risk and Uncertainty: 

Like all drug companies, GSK faces risks of drug delays or non approvals from regulatory agencies, an increasingly aggressive generic industry, and competition in the pharmaceutical industry. Overall, given all the diversification the company has across its platforms offsetting the variable outcomes for drug development and competitive challenges to the firms’ leading products. GSK is not materially affected by environmental, social, and governance risks, although it is seen access to basic services (tied to drug pricing) as the biggest ESG risk that the firm needs to manage. GSK generates close to one half of total sales from U.S. prescription drug sales, so additional major pricing reforms could weigh on sales and margins. Additionally, it is assumed a more than 50% probability of GSK seeing future costs related to product governance ESG risks (such as off-label marketing or litigation related to side effects) and model base case annual legal costs at 2% of non-GAAP net income (at the midrange relative to peers based on GSK’s product portfolio having average exposure to future potential litigation). As part of these costs, litigation expenses have been factored in for the increasingly concerning Zantac litigation.

Bulls Say:

  • GSK’s next-generation respiratory drugs and HIV drugs look poised for strong growth over the next five years. 
  • GSK faces relatively minor near-term patent losses, setting up steady long-term growth. 
  • The firm’s well-positioned Shingrix vaccine should support strong long-term growth based on excellent efficacy and limited competition.

Company Description:

In the pharmaceutical industry, GSK ranks as one of the largest firms by total sales. The company wields its might across several therapeutic classes, including respiratory, cancer, and antiviral, as well as vaccines. GSK uses joint ventures to gain additional scale in certain markets like HIV.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Used-Vehicle Industry Problems Crush CarMax’s Fiscal Q3, but We See Issues as Temporary

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

CarMax’s revenue has increased at a compound annual rate of about 13% since fiscal 2000 because of the success of customer-friendly sales practices and use of information technology. The firm targets a 12%-19% annual growth rate for fiscal 2021-26. Competing dealerships have tried no-haggle pricing and failed because their salesforces are trained to focus on selling vehicles that earn the highest possible gross profit rather than vehicles that customers actually want or need. A traditional dealership relies on profits from service to offset the typically lower margins it gets on new-vehicle sales. CarMax does not hire salespeople from the auto industry, and salespeople receive the same commission regardless of the vehicle sold. They do not even know the profit on the vehicle sold. The CarMax customer stays with the same salesperson throughout the transaction rather than being passed off to a finance department, receiving a buying experience that is hard to match at a dealership. This focus on customer satisfaction, combined with scale advantages that allow for a wide inventory selection and extensive pricing data, creates a narrow economic moat. Management has said repeatedly that it will give any further improvements in operating expenses back to the customer as a price decrease instead of seeking higher gross margins. This strategy is admired by professionals; CarMax’s scale allows it to price below smaller dealerships, and lowering prices should increase comparable-store sales while keeping competitors away, though some large dealers are copying CarMax’s shopping experience. The company can often make up any lost margin via its highly profitable finance arm, CarMax Auto Finance. CAF finances about 41% of unit sales. The company’s omnichannel program, which finished rolling out in the second quarter of fiscal 2021, enables consumers to shop in any combination of digital and in store that they like and should allow for fewer store openings over time. These factors should keep the company growing for many years, despite more competition from franchised dealers and online-only startups. Omnichannel is just over half of retail volume. 

Risk and Uncertainty: 

CarMax operates in the cyclical auto industry, and any downturn brings uncertainty as to the timing and extent of a recovery in demand for used vehicles. Also, nothing stops a competitor from trying to emulate CarMax; Lithia Motors’ and Asbury’s now-defunct L2 and Q Auto used-car stores are proof of that, as are AutoNation USA, Sonic’s EchoPark, and Penske’s CarShop stores. In 2013, franchise vehicle dealer Sonic announced plans to open its EchoPark standalone used-vehicle stores, which it did in 2014. Sonic wants to have a lot of stores over time and made it clear how much it admires CarMax. The industry is so fragmented that all these firms may find success, though it is thought competitors will need at least a decade to rival CarMax in size and expertise. When used-vehicle prices rise, management will likely keep the same target for gross profit dollars, which can hurt margin and cash flow as in fiscal 2022. It is thought highly of CarMax’s management and business model, so it is considered macroeconomic variables as the highest risk for the firm rather than company specific risk factors. Any major environmental, social, and governance concerns for CarMax are not viewed, provided that autonomous vehicles do not someday eliminate demand for used vehicles. It is believed that is highly unlikely, due to vehicle affordability for all Americans, and even if it occurred, it’s likely a very long way off. The company does get sued from time to time for accusations of unpaid wages or unfair labor practices, but any of these matters ever receiving a judgment that would reduce fair value estimate reduction is not seen. CarMax will need to ensure that its data security measures are ironclad as it moves into the omnichannel space with its customers sharing more personal information. Governance improvements in the past are that the board allowed the shareholder rights plan to expire in 2012 and removed the staggered board of director terms in 2013

Bulls Say:

  • CarMax has increased revenue and profitability at a remarkable rate, and it is thought that the company is positioned to gain market share in any environment. Omnichannel helps this story, as it lets consumers have maximum flexibility in their experience. 
  • In April 2022, CarMax announced aggressive growth plans to reach about $33 billion-$45 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026 and be the online leader in used-vehicle retailing. 
  • No competitors have successfully duplicated CarMax’s business model, providing the company with a considerable head-start on would-be imitators

Company Description:

CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of over 230 used retail stores. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales typically account for about 83% of revenue and wholesale about 13%, with the remaining portion composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2022, the company retail and wholesale 924,338 and 706,212 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the U.S. but still estimates that it has only about 4% U.S. market share of vehicles 0-10 years old in 2021. It seeks over 5% share by the end of calendar 2025 and revenue of $33 billion-$45 billion by fiscal 2026. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Zip’s Share Price Encapsulates Much Downside While Its Positives Are Being Overlooked

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

Zip’s focus is on maximizing its addressable market. Its business is more diversified than single-product buy now, pay later, or BNPL, players, with varieties in financing options, transaction limits, and repayment schedules. Customers enjoy simple sign-up and checkouts, high acceptance by retailers and flexible financing solutions to help better manage their cash flows. Merchant partners may benefit from increased conversion rates, basket sizes, and transaction frequencies. Zip has a revolving credit business in Australia. Core products are ZipPay, which finances up to AUD 1,000; and ZipMoney, which finances AUD 1,000 and above. It also boasts a broader merchant base including retail, home, electronics, health, auto, and travel. Around 70% of revenue is derived from customers, mainly from account fees and interest. Zip adopts an installment financing model overseas, helping it scale up faster and keep up with competition in the underpenetrated global BNPL landscape. The acquisition of U.S. based QuadPay materially boosts its growth prospects. It also operates in Canada, Europe, Mexico, and the Middle East. Zip enhances customer stickiness via ongoing product add-ons. It has a Pay Anywhere function that lets users transact at a wide variety of avenues without being confined to merchant partners. Users also benefit from promotional offers, cash-back deals, or free credits. Newer features include enhanced rewards programs, product protection insurance, or physical cards. For merchant partners, Zip invests in co-marketing to help them acquire new customers. Zip has strong earnings prospects, but it is believed its margins will be increasingly under pressure and it will not achieve the same penetration and transaction frequency overseas as it had domestically. While it benefits from the growth of e-commerce and increasing preference for more convenient/cheaper forms of financing, it is anticipated heightened competition to its products. The capital-intensive domestic business cannot scale up as quickly, its fee structure potentially creates friction for customers, and its product offering in the U.S lacks clear differentiation. 

Risk and Uncertainty: 

Zip is at risk of a large spike in bad debts. Both the long-dated nature of its revolving credit business and Pay Anywhere feature increases credit risk, as this results in Zip lacking control or information of its customers’ spending habits. With Zip potentially financing consumers with lower tolerance of credit stress and the fact that BNPL financing can lead to overcommitment in spending, it could see a substantial rise in hardship claims or non repayments and may have to write off a material portion of its receivables during a major credit event. Any regulation that alters the relationship between users and Zip could reduce the appeal of its product, lead to consumers opting for cheaper financing options, or lower signup rates and transaction frequency. This ties to product governance—a key ESG risk—where BNPL is at core credit, but are marketed as budgeting or lead generation tools. While low credit losses have to date helped blunt regulatory attacks, the potential for customers to use BNPL to spend excessively and fall into financial stress could necessitate more regulation. Material risks include the potential banning of no-surcharge rules applied by BNPL firms, or if BNPL is regulated to the same extent as traditional credit. Zip also needs external funding to support its receivables growth. Any dislocation in capital markets or an inability to meet hefty growth expectations could result in it being unable to obtain financing when required or having to secure funding at unfavorable terms. 

Bulls Say:

  • Zip is well placed to continue growing its transaction volume, given its variety in financing options and retailer base, as well as its Pay Anywhere model which provides a greater avenue to spend using its products. 
  • Zip benefits from an accelerated shift to e-commerce, increased adoption of cashless payments, and a growing need among merchants for effective marketing amid a challenging retail backdrop. 
  • It is thought Zip faces lower regulatory risks than its BNPL rivals, as it already conducts a greater degree of background checks and ZipMoney is already regulated by the National Credit Act. 

Company Description:

Zip is a diversified finance provider, offering consumer financing via a line of credit (via ZipPay and ZipMoney) and installment-based finance (via QuadPay, Spotii, Twisto, and PayFlex); as well as lending to small to midsize enterprises (via Zip Business). Zip’s fortunes are largely tied to the buy now, pay later, or BNPL, industry. Most of its products–ZipPay, QuadPay (Zip U.S.), and PayFlex–do not charge interest based on outstanding balances. Around 60%-70% of ZipPay’s/Zip Money’s revenue is derived from customers, mainly via account fees and interest. Meanwhile, its installment businesses primarily generate revenue by receiving a margin from merchants, which compensates it for accepting all nonpayment risk and for encouraging consumers to transact more frequently.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Strong Outlook for CRISPR Therapeutics’ Gene Editing Technology, $119 FVE, Shares Undervalued

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

CRISPR Therapeutics is a gene editing company focused on the development of CRISPR/Cas9-based therapeutics. The company’s proprietary platform specializes in Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9, which precisely cuts DNA to disrupt, delete, correct, and insert genes to treat genetically defined diseases. CRISPR’s emerging technology has led to a new class of therapies, which are well suited for targeting rare diseases or other disorders that are caused by genetic mutations. CRISPR/Cas9 works by having CRISPR (pieces of DNA sequences) guide Cas9 (an enzyme that can cut and edit DNA) to edit, alter, or repair genes. It is believed the company’s proprietary technology has the potential to build blockbusters in rare diseases with limited treatment options available. CRISPR Therapeutics currently has no approved drugs and a largely early-stage pipeline, so awarding the company an economic moat is refrained. CRISPR Therapeutics is focused on developing and commercializing novel therapies to treat severe, genetic diseases and currently possesses a sizable, yet mostly early-stage pipeline. Its lead candidate, CTX001, is being developed in collaboration with narrow-moat Vertex Pharmaceuticals for the treatment of transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD). CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex plan to file for regulatory approval by the end of 2022. The rest of CRISPR Therapeutics’ pipeline is either in early (Phase 1) or pre-clinical stages of development. While CRISPR Therapeutics does not currently have approved products, the company provides long-term investors with pure play exposure to gene editing

Risk and Uncertainty: 

There is significant uncertainty related to regulatory approvals for the company’s early-stage pipeline candidates and a range of potential outcomes. Product governance is an ESG risk for CRISPR Therapeutics, as failure to adhere to extensive regulations can lead to expensive recalls, increased regulatory scrutiny, and lawsuits from affected customers. Additionally, lawsuits related to patent rights and potential patent infringements are another risk. It is anticipated gene editing companies like CRISPR Therapeutics will operate under cross licensing agreements with the Broad Institute as many of the gene editing technology platforms are interrelated. Access to basic services is another ESG risk the company will face if its drugs receive approval since its sales will depend on reimbursements from third-party payers, such as Medicaid or Medicare, private insurers, and national healthcare systems. Attempts by governments to contain healthcare costs could result in pricing pressure and lead to reduced profit margins. 

Bulls Say:

  • Partnerships allow CRISPR Therapeutics to receive milestones and economic benefits from drug candidate progression while offsetting some of the clinical development costs. 
  • CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRISPR/Cas9 platform has the potential to develop highly efficacious and potentially curative treatments for rare, genetic diseases with high unmet needs, which will likely lead to pricing power. 
  • It is viewed the company’s pipeline as possessing strengthening intangible assets and assign it a positive moat trend

Company Description:

CRISPR Therapeutics is a gene editing company focused on the development of CRISPR/Cas9-based therapeutics. CRISPR/Cas9 stands for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), which is a revolutionary technology for precisely altering specific sequences of genomic DNA. The company is focused on using this technology to treat genetically defined diseases. CRISPR’s most advanced pipeline candidate, CTX001, is in collaboration with Vertex Pharmaceuticals and targets sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, which have high unmet medical needs. The company is progressing additional gene editing programs for immuno-oncology, as well as a stem cell-derived therapy for the treatment of Type 1 diabetes.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Despite Recent Litigation Headwinds on Zantac, GSK Remains Well Positioned for Earnings Growth

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

As one of the largest pharmaceutical and vaccine companies, GSK has used its vast resources to create the next generation of healthcare treatments. The company’s innovative new product lineup and expansive list of patent-protected drugs create a wide economic moat, in our opinion. The magnitude of GSK’s reach is evidenced by a product portfolio that spans several therapeutic classes. The diverse platform insulates the company from problems with any single product. Additionally, the company has developed next-generation drugs in respiratory and HIV areas that should help mitigate both branded and generic competition. We expect GSK to be a major competitor in respiratory, HIV, and vaccines over the next decade. On the pipeline front, GSK has shifted from its historical strategy of targeting slight enhancements toward true innovation. Also, it is focusing more on oncology and immune system, with genetic data to help develop the next generation of drugs. The benefits of these strategies are showing up in GSK’s early-stage drugs. We expect this focus will improve approval rates and pricing power. In contrast to respiratory drugs, treatments for cancer indications carry much strong pricing power with payers. From  a geographic standpoint, GSK is strategically branching out from developed markets into emerging markets. Its vaccine segment positions the firm well in these price-sensitive markets. While this strategy is likely to create some challenges, like the potential legal violations that arose in early 2013 in China, we believe the fast-growing emerging markets will help support long-term growth and diversify cash flows beyond developed markets. GSK’s decision to divest its consumer business will likely unlock value over the long run. GSK divested its consumer group (called Haleon) in July 2022. Given the strong valuations of consumer healthcare companies, we expect this unit will yield a stronger valuation than what is implied within the GSK structure before the divestment.

Risk and Uncertainty: 

Like all drug companies, GSK faces risks of drug delays or nonapprovals from regulatory agencies, an increasingly aggressive generic industry, and competition in the pharmaceutical industry. Overall, we assign GSK a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Medium, given all the diversification the company has across its platforms offsetting the variable outcomes for drug development and competitive challenges to the firms’ leading products. Our Uncertainty Rating for GSK is not materially affected by environmental, social, and governance risks, although we see access to basic services (tied to drug pricing) as the biggest ESG risk that the firm needs to manage. GSK generates close to one half of total sales from U.S. prescription drug sales, so additional major pricing reforms could weigh on sales and margins. Additionally, we assume a more than 50% probability of GSK seeing future costs related to product governance ESG risks (such as off-label marketing or litigation related to side effects) and model base case annual legal costs at 2% of non-GAAP net income (at the midrange relative to peers based on GSK’s product portfolio having average exposure to future potential litigation). As part of these costs, we have factored in litigation expenses for the increasingly concerning Zantac litigation

Bulls Say:

  • Partnerships allow CRISPR Therapeutics to receive milestones and economic benefits from drug candidate progression while offsetting some of the clinical development costs. 
  • CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRISPR/Cas9 platform has the potential to develop highly efficacious and potentially curative treatments for rare, genetic diseases with high unmet needs, which will likely lead to pricing power. 
  • It is viewed the company’s pipeline as possessing strengthening intangible assets and assign it a positive moat trend

Company Description:

CRISPR Therapeutics is a gene editing company focused on the development of CRISPR/Cas9-based therapeutics. CRISPR/Cas9 stands for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), which is a revolutionary technology for precisely altering specific sequences of genomic DNA. The company is focused on using this technology to treat genetically defined diseases. CRISPR’s most advanced pipeline candidate, CTX001, is in collaboration with Vertex Pharmaceuticals and targets sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, which have high unmet medical needs. The company is progressing additional gene editing programs for immuno-oncology, as well as a stem cell-derived therapy for the treatment of Type 1 diabetes.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Consumer Products Derailed Hasbro’s Holiday Season, Business Currently in Transition CRI

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

Hasbro continues to hold a leadership position in the nearly $40 billion domestic toy industry (NPD), developing, manufacturing, and marketing well-known global brands that include Transformers, My Little Pony, and Nerf. The firm operates a relatively differentiated business model, thanks to its digital properties exposure, content creation ability, and key licensing arrangements, factors that have been enhanced with the 2019 tie-up of Entertainment One (EOne). Additionally, production capabilities support Hasbro’s multimedia presence, as does Discovery Family, a joint venture with Discovery that brings Hasbro’s brands to television, bolstering the firm’s brand blueprint strategy. Furthermore, Hasbro has historically dominated the big-screen arena, building brand loyalty and generating new streams of revenue from its licensing businesses (like Star Wars and Marvel). It is believed Hasbro and the toy industry have a decent runway for growth ahead through international growth (Asia-Pacific and emerging markets still provide longer-term growth potential through share gains) and acquisitions of small, strategic players that fit into Hasbro’s portfolio (most recently D&D Beyond).  Hasbro’s moat is rated as narrow, as a market leader with a differentiated niche in the entertainment space. It also has robust exposure to games through the Wizards of the Coast line, where peers have failed to erode share given the loyal history of players in the category. However, strong returns on invested capital that Hasbro can generate will continue to attract competition, which will force it to continuously innovate to maintain its leadership position, resulting in elevated development costs. However, it is not believed that investments to protect the brands will hurt cash flow potential, as cash flow rises from catalysts like strong film launches, new licences, and expense leverage (with a $250 million-$300 million cost savings initiative underway through 2025). This will allow investors to be rewarded through rising dividends (4% yield) and a share-buyback program, along with a return to 2-2.5 times forecast debt/EBITDA by the end of 2023.

Risk and Uncertainty: 

A number of risks may affect Hasbro’s enterprise value. First, customer concentration raises the risk that changes to ordering patterns could affect profits. Its top three channels for distribution (Walmart, Target, and Amazon) accounted for nearly 32% of sales in 2021. Cooperation among retailers could affect the amount of promotional spending demanded and hamper Hasbro’s margin. Additionally, the ecommerce avenue (comprising more than $1 billion in sales) remains a key channel for the distribution model. While Hasbro has risen to become a top toy seller on Amazon, a concern that remains is that as Amazon represents a larger part of the total mix of sales, it could change the profitability profile of Hasbro over time, depending on concessions the toy maker may have to offer. Over the near term, Hasbro still faces risks around COVID-19 (supply chain and production delays if closures ensue). New toy marketers can incorporate and attempt to take share from Hasbro. Although trademarks exist on Hasbro’s brands, there aren’t structural barriers to prevent a competitor from developing a new toy or capturing a licensing relationship with a partner. It is believed Hasbro is in a slightly protected position, as its sheer size allows it to allocate significant capital to marketing, a luxury likely not available to a new market entrant. This leads some licensing partners to pair up with leading players in the industry that have already proven partnership success through the performance of its existing licensing contracts. Also, while Hasbro faces some environmental, social, and governance risks, it is not expected any particular issue to be material, and as such, exposure to these concerns doesn’t influence the fair value estimate. The most likely risk stems from weak product governance, which could lead to quality and safety issues, something that is not seen as imminent in the prognosis. 

Bulls Say:

  • Opportunities exist from entertainment, bolstered by the Discovery Family network, EOne, and film tie ins, supporting demand growth.
  • Stock ownership is compelling for income investors. The firm has a 4% yield and has paid out around $1.7 billion in dividends in the past five years. The dividend payout ratio should remain around 40% over the long term as free cash flow rises
  • The firm enjoys a stable expense base and should be able to leverage operating margins to around 19% as higher margin games become a larger percentage of the total mix.

Company Description:

Hasbro is a branded play company providing children and families around the world with entertainment offerings based on a world-class brand portfolio. From toys and games to television programming, motion pictures, and a licensing program, Hasbro reaches customers by leveraging its well-known brands such as Transformers, Nerf, and Magic: The Gathering. Ownership stakes in Discovery Family, which offers programming around Hasbro brands, and owned production capabilities from Entertainment One help bolster Hasbro’s multichannel presence. The firm acquired Entertainment One in 2019, bolting on popular properties like Peppa Pig and PJ Masks, and has plans to tie up with Dungeons & Dragons Beyond in 2022, offering the firm access 10 million digital tabletop players

(Source: Morningstar)

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