Category: Dividend Stocks

Companies return profits to shareholders through two main channels, capital gains and income. A high dividend yield indicates that a company is returning a large amount of cash to shareholders relative to the value of the company. This allows investors to maximize their income received relative to their investment amount. The gross dividend is calculated from the net dividend amount paid to shareholders plus the value of any attached franking credits associated with those dividends. A fully franked dividend will have franking credits equal to 30% of the gross dividend value, which can, therefore, represent a significant source of additional value.

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Dividend Stocks Sectors

Orora Ltd strong momentum with ongoing share buyback and balance sheet flexibility

Investment Thesis

  • Trading on fair value relative to our valuation.
  • Exposure to both developed and emerging markets’ growth.
  • Near-term headwinds should be in the price.
  • Revised strategy following recent strategic review.
  • Bolt-on acquisitions (and associated synergies) provide opportunities to
  • supplement organic growth.
  • Leveraged to a falling AUD/USD.
  • Potential corporate activity.
  • Capital management (current on-market share buyback plus potential for
  • additional initiatives).

Key Risks

  • Competitive pressures leading to margin erosion.
  • Input cost pressures which the company is unable to pass on to customers.
  • Deterioration in economic conditions in US, EM and Australia.
  • Emerging markets risk.
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD.
  • Declining OCC prices.

1H22 Results Highlights

  • Sales revenue increased +9.6% (+10.6% in CC).
  • Underlying EBIT increased +10.4% (+11.1% in CC) driven by significantly improved performance in the North America segment.
  • Operating cash flow increased +0.6% to $145.5m with cash conversion declining -400bps to 75%, with higher earnings offset by an increase in working capital.
  • Net debt increased +13% over 2H21 to ~$512m, primarily reflecting the impact of increased debt arising from the on-market share buyback and increased capex partially offset by stronger earnings. ORA’s current leverage of 1.6x is below management’s targeted level of 2-2.5x EBITDA.

Company Profile 

Orora Limited (ORA) provides packaging products and services. The Company offers fiber, glass and beverage can packaging materials in Australia and Asia and packaging distribution services in North America and Australia.

(Source: BanyanTree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Suncorp Group Ltd FY23 Plan, Dividend policy and Natural hazards & reinsurance

Two young women talking together with a tablet in the living room. They sit spaced apart to prevent the virus.

Investment Thesis:

  • Due to factors impacting both the achievement of the underlying ITR and cost to income targets, alongside the historically low interest rate environment, management believe it’s difficult to achieve a ROE target of 10% in FY21, however it seeks to maintain an ordinary dividend payout ratio of 60-80% of cash earnings.
  • SUN currently trades on a 2-yr forward PE-multiple of 15.1x and a fully franked yield of 5.0% – attractive. 
  • Share buyback of up to $250m should support its share price.
  • APRA allows advanced accreditation for SUN’s Bank resulting in capital relief.
  • Better than expected margin outcome in banking and general insurance (GI).
  • Positive industry changes from the Royal Commission recommendations. 
  • Continual strong credit quality for its Bank and Wealth segment whilst maintaining net interest margins.
  • Management can maintain an underlying insurance trading ratio of 12% consistently going forward and sustainable ROE of at least 10%.

Key Risks:

  • Greater than expected competition in lines of insurance affecting pricing, unit growth, and risk management.
  • Continuing elevated natural catastrophe occurrences such as the NSW bushfires, which will use up reinsurance and impact SUN’s earnings.
  • Not achieving key targets for FY21 such as the rollout of the Company’s technology and digital platforms.
  • Weaker than expected investment yields.
  • Lower net interest margins or higher provisions than expected.
  • Increased levels of claims.

Key highlights:

SUN saw Group NPAT decline -20.8% over pcp to $388m and cash earnings decline -29.1% over pcp to $361m primarily impacted by natural hazard claims costs of $695m ($205m more than expected) and investment market volatility, which saw the Group cut dividend by -11.5% over pcp to 23 Cash per share. GWP growth in Australia and NZ remained strong and the Group’s underlying ITR (excluding Covid-19 impacts) increased +60bps over 2H21 to 8.0% driven by the Consumer portfolio, with management continuing to guide towards the target of 10-12% in FY23.

Bank continued to make good progress on its strategic initiative, increasing lending by +2.2% over pcp and ending the half with a strong capital position.

  • Capital management:  (1) Completed a $250m on-market buyback, which is expected to improve EPS by +1.6%. (2) Maintained a strong capital position with CET1 at Group level of $492m (post buyback and final and special dividend payment), with both the GI Group and Bank CET1 ratios within their target operating ranges. (3) The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 23cps, equating to a pay-out ratio of 80% of cash earnings, at the top of the target pay-out range of 60-80%.
  • Insurance Australia:  PAT declined -55.8% over pcp to $114m, as strong top-line growth (GWP ex FSL up +5.1% over pcp to $4.5bn) and improved working claims performance was adversely impacted by adverse natural hazards experience (net incurred claims up +1.8% over pcp) and lower investment returns (down -98.7% over pcp to $4m). 
  • Banking & Wealth: (1) PAT rose +5.3% over pcp to $200m, driven by growth in loan balances (total lending up +2.2% over pcp driven by home lending partially offset by decline in business lending) and a net impairment release (release of $16m amid a $15m reduction in the Collective Provision due to the improvement in economic conditions), partly offset by a lower NIM (down -7bps over pcp to 1.97% due to reduced home lending margins from increased competition and movements in market rates, higher fixed rate home lending mix, partly offset by active management of customer deposits pricing) and increased expenses (up +1.1% over pcp leading to cost-to-income ratio increasing 110bps to 57.6%) to support strategic investment and volume growth. (2) Bank’s capital position remained strong with CET1 ratio of 9.91% (down -15bps over pcp), above the target operating range of 9-9.5%.  
  • NZ: PAT declined -34.9% over pcp to NZ$84m, primarily driven by a -22% decline in General Insurance PAT to NZ$78m as strong GWP growth (up +14% over pcp) was more than offset by adverse investment market impacts and elevated natural hazard experience (net incurred claims up +17.6% over pcp with natural hazard claims up +41.2% over pcp), and -79.3% over pcp decline in NZ Life Insurance PAT to NZ$6m.

Company Description:

Suncorp Group Ltd (SUN) provides general insurance, banking, life insurance, and superannuation products and related services to the retail, corporate, and commercial sectors in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Personal Insurance, Commercial Insurance, General Insurance New Zealand, and Banking segments.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

JB Hi-Fi Ltd interim dividend of 163cps fully franked representing 65% of NPAT and an Off market Buy-Back

Investment Thesis

  • High quality retailer, however trading on a 2-yr PE-multiple of ~15.2x, much of the benefits appear to be factored in (unless we get an upgrade cycle). 
  • Being a low-cost retailer and able to provide low prices to consumers (JB Hi-Fi & The Good Guys) puts the Company in a good position to compete against rivals (e.g., Amazon). 
  • The acquisition of The Good Guys gives JBH exposure to the bulky goods market.
  • Market leading positions in key customer categories means suppliers ensure their products are available through the JBH network.  
  • Clear value proposition and market positioning (recognized as the value brand). 
  • Growing online sales channel. 
  • Solid management team – new CEO Terry Smart was previously the CEO of JBH (and did a great job and is well regarded) hence we are less concerned about the change in senior management. 

Key Risks

  • Increase in competitive pressures (reported entry of Amazon into the Australian market). 
  • Roll-back of Covid-19 induced sales will likely see the stock de-rate. 
  • Increase in cost of doing business. 
  • Lack of new product releases to drive top line growth.
  • Store roll-out strategy stalls or new stores cannibalise existing stores. 
  • Execution risk – integration risk and synergy benefits from The Good Guys acquisition falling short of targets). 

Off – Market Buy Back

  • Total sales were -1.6% to $4.86bn, but up +21.7% over a two-year period. Online sales were up +62.6% to $1.1bn.
  • EBIT was down -9.1% to $420.5m, but up +59.9% over a two-year period.
  • NPAT declined -9.4% to $287.9m but was up +68.8% over a two-year period. This translated to EPS being down -9.4% to 250.6 cps, but likewise, up +68.8% over a two-year period.
  • The Board declared an interim dividend of 163 cps and capital return of up to $250m to shareholders by way of an off-market buy-back. That is, up to $437m to be returned to shareholders through the interim dividend and the off-market buy-back.
  • The last day shares can be acquired on-market to be eligible to participate in the Buy-Back and to qualify for franking credit entitlements in respect of the Buy-Back consideration is 22 February 2022.
  • The Buy-Back is expected to be completed by 20 April 2022.
  • Eligible shareholders will be able to tender their shares at discounts of 8% to 14% to the market price (which will be calculated as the volume weighted average price of its share price over the five trading days up to and including the closing date of 8 April.

Company Profile 

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH) is a home appliances and consumer electronics retailer in Australia and New Zealand. JBH’s products include consumer electronics (TVs, audio, computers), software (CDs, DVDs, Blu-ray discs and games), home appliances (whitegoods, cooking products & small appliances), telecommunications products and services, musical instruments, and digital video content. JBH holds significant market-share in many of its product categories. The Group’s sales are primarily from its branded retail store network (JB Hi-Fi stores and JB Hi-Fi Home stores) and online. JBH also recently acquired The Good Guys (home appliances/consumer electronics), which has a network of 101 stores across Australia.  

(Source: BanyanTree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Commonwealth Bank Board declared a franked dividend of $1.75 per share

Investment Thesis

  • Trades at a 2.2x Price to Book, and dividend yield of ~4.0%, however the stock trades at a premium to its peer group. 
  • $2bn on-market buyback should support CBA’s share price.
  • Improving macroeconomic environment which may see favourable higher interest rate hikes.
  • Post Covid-19 expected low levels of impairment charges (especially as a low interest rate environment helps customers and arrears).
  • Potential pressure on net interest margins as competition intensify with other major banks.
  • Sector leading return on tangible equity.
  • A well-diversified corporate book.
  • Improving CET1 ratio, which may in due course provide opportunity to undertake capital management initiatives.

Bulls Says

  • Intense competition for loan, as overall market growth rate moderates. 
  • Trades at a premium to peer group, with high competition potentially eroding its ROE.
  • Major banks, including CBA, are growing below system growth (i.e. losing market share). 
  • Increase in bad and doubtful debts or increase in provisioning.
  • Funding pressure for deposits and wholesale funding (increased funding costs).
  • Regulatory and compliance risk
  • Australian housing property crash. 

1H22 Results Highlights

  • Statutory NPAT of $4,741m, up 26%. Cash NPAT of $4,746m, up +23% driven by strong operating performance, lower remediation costs and lower loan loss provisions on improved economic outlook, offsetting weaker margins.
  • Operating income of $12,205m, up 2%, on ongoing volume growth and improved volume driven fee income, partly offset by weaker net interest margin.
  • Operating expenses was largely flat at $5,588m in 1H22 with higher staff costs to support higher volumes offset by lower occupancy, IT and remediation costs. CBA’s cost to income ratio of 45.8% was an improvement from 46.7% in 1H21.
  • Net interest margin (NIM) was down 14 basis points to 1.92%. According to management, excluding the impact from increased lower yielding liquid assets, CBA’s NIM declined 5 bps on higher switching to lower margin fixed home loans, the impact of the rising swap rates due to market expectations of higher interest rates, and intense competition.
  • Loan impairment expense declined $957m to a benefit of $75m reflecting an improved economic outlook. Loan loss provisions remain significantly higher than the expected losses under the central economic scenario.

Company Profile 

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is one of the major Australian Banks. Its key segments are retail, business and institutional banking, wealth management, New Zealand and Bankwest. Across these core segments, the bank provides services in retail, corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking, stock broking and funds management.

(Source: BanyanTree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Sysco To Launch Teams That Master In Numerous Cuisines (Italian, Asian, Mexican) That Will Enhance Market Share Gains In Ethnic Restaurants

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is anticipated Sysco possesses a narrow moat, rooted in its cost advantages. It is concluded that the firm benefits from lower distribution cost given its closer proximity to customers, complemented by scale-enabled cost advantages such as purchasing power and resources to provide value-added services to its customers. While COVID-19 created a very challenging environment, the food-service market has nearly fully recovered, with sales at 95% of prepandemic levels as of the end of 2021, and Sysco has emerged as a stronger player, with $2 billion in new national account contracts (3% of prepandemic sales) and a 10% increase in independent restaurant customers.

In 2021, Sysco laid out its three-year road map, termed “recipe for growth” which will be funded by the elimination of $750 million in operating expenses between fiscals 2021 and 2024. The plan should allow Sysco to grow 1.5 times faster than the overall food-service market by fiscal 2024. Sysco is investing to eliminate customer pain points by removing customer minimum order sizes while maintaining delivery frequency and lengthening payment terms. It improved its CRM tool, which now uses data analytics to enhance prospecting, rolled out new sales incentives and sales leadership, and is launching an automated pricing tool, which should sharpen its competitive pricing while freeing up time for sales reps to pursue more value-added activities, such as securing new business. Sysco is also developing the industry’s first customized marketing tool, harnessing its significant customer data to generate tailored messaging that should resonate with each customer. In pilots, this practice increased Sysco’s share of wallet. Further, Sysco has switched to a team-based sales approach, with product specialists that should help drive increased adoption of Sysco’s specialized product categories such as produce, fresh meats, and seafood. Lastly, Sysco is launching teams that specialize in various cuisines (Italian, Asian, Mexican) that should drive market share gains in ethnic restaurants. Looking abroad, Sysco has a new leadership team in place for its international operations, increasing the confidence that execution will improve.

Financial Strength

It is seen Sysco’s solid balance sheet, with $3.4 billion of cash and available liquidity (as of December) relative to $11 billion in total debt, positions the firm well to endure the pandemic. Sysco has a consistent track record of annual dividend increases, even during the 2008-09 recession and the pandemic. It is foreseen 5%-10% annual increases each year of Analysts’ forecast, maintaining its target of a 50%-60% payout ratio.Sysco has historically operated with low leverage, generally reporting net debt/adjusted EBITDA of less than 2 times. Leverage increased to 2.3 times after the fiscal 2017 $3.1 billion Brakes acquisition, and above 3 times in fiscals 2020 and 2021, given the pandemic. But it is anticipated leverage will fall back below 2 by fiscal 2023, given debt paydown and recovering EBITDA. Analysts’ forecast calls for free cash flow averaging 3% of sales annually over the next five years. In May 2021, Sysco shifted its priorities for cash in order to support its new Recipe for Growth strategy. It’s new priorities are capital expenditures, acquisitions, debt reduction when leverage is above 2 times, dividends, and opportunistic share repurchase. Its previous priorities were capital expenditures, dividend growth, acquisitions, debt reduction, and share repurchases. In fiscal 2022-24, as it invests to support accelerated growth, Sysco should spend 1.3%-1.4% of revenue on capital expenditures (falling to 1.1% thereafter). Sysco completed the $714 billion acquisition of Greco and Sons in fiscal 2021, and it is projected for it to invest about $100 million to $200 million annually on acquisitions thereafter. Finally, Analysts’ model $500 million-$600 million in annual expenditures to buyback about 1% of outstanding shares annually. It is foreseen as a prudent use of cash when shares trade below Analysts’ assessment of intrinsic value.

Bulls Say’s

  • As Sysco’s competitive advantage centers on its position as the low-cost leader, it is projected Sysco should be able to increase market share in its home turf over time. 
  • Sysco has gained material market share during the pandemic, allowing it to emerge a stronger competitor. 
  • Sysco’s overhead reduction programs should make it more efficient, enabling it to price business more competitively, helping it to win new business, and further leverage its scale.

Company Profile 

Sysco is the largest U.S. food-service distributor, boasting 17% market share of the highly fragmented food-service distribution industry. Sysco distributes over 400,000 food and nonfood products to restaurants (66% of revenue), healthcare facilities (9%), education and government buildings (8%), travel and leisure (5%), and other locations (14%) where individuals consume away-from-home meals. In fiscal 2021, 83% of the firm’s revenue was U.S.-based, with 8% from Canada, 3% from the U.K., 2% from France, and 4% other. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

Raytheon Technologies Giving Composed Acquaintance to Commercial Aerospace and Defense

Business Strategy and Outlook

Raytheon Technologies is composed of United Technologies’ aerospace businesses and legacy Raytheon, each of which is a powerhouse in the commercial aerospace supply chain and defense prime contracting industries, respectively. The combined entity is fundamentally unique due to its relatively even balance between commercial aerospace and defense prime contracting; most other entities in the industry are heavily skewed one way or the other. 

In commercial aerospace, Pratt and Whitney, Raytheon’s jet engine manufacturer, is amid a large ramp up for the Geared Turbofan engine to support its placement on the popular A320neo family of aircraft. Engines are a razor-and-blade business, with the razor being the original component sale and the blade being servicing. Pratt has narrow-body exposure A320s through the V2500 engine and to the A320neo and the A220 via the GTF engine. While it is somewhat concerning, that some older A320s will be retired during the pandemic, it is viewed  long-term tailwinds for the GTF. Collins Aerospace is one of the largest diversified commercial component suppliers, and it is held, that the segment’s substantial scale and scope give it negotiating leverage with the aircraft manufacturers, as they can choose to not put in a bid on critical components of new aircraft. 

Within defense, Raytheon is exposed to missiles, missile defense systems, space militarization, and IT services for the government. It is anticipated that the military’s increased focus on defending against great powers conflict will drive material investment in each of these exposures, excluding government IT services. The fiscal stimulus used to support the U.S. economy during the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically increased the U.S. debt and higher debt levels are usually a forward indicator of fiscal austerity. It is likely a flattening, rather than declining, budgetary environment as it is held that heightened geopolitical tensions between great powers are likely to buoy spending despite the debt burden. It is likely that contractors can continue growing despite a slowing macro environment due to sizable backlogs and the national defense strategy’s increased focus on modernization.

Financial Strength

Raytheon Technologies is materially deleveraging from the spin-offs of Otis Elevators and Carrier, as well as merging in an all-equity transaction with a much less leveraged Raytheon. It was historically seen that United Technologies carried too much debt from the Rockwell Collins acquisition, roughly three and a half turns of gross debt/EBITDA in 2019 but were confident in the firm’s financial health due to long-term revenue visibility stemming from the large backlogs at the aircraft manufacturers. As it stands today, Analysts’ are more confident in the firm’s capacity to service its relatively smaller debt burden because it will be taking on an ultra-long cycle defense prime contracting business, which has decades of revenue visibility and regulated margins, so Analysts’ are confident in Raytheon Technologies’ ability to service the debt load, the underfunded pension, and the dividend. Analysts’ estimate the firm will end 2022 with gross debt at about 2.7 times EBITDA, it is awaited that the company will continue to deleverage for the time being, so that the company would be positioned to potentially re-lever for an acquisition a few years down the road. Given that the substantial consolidation that has already occurred in the defense prime contracting industry makes it difficult to find potential hardware contractors to acquire and there has always been a lack of potential targets for Pratt & Whitney, it is held that Raytheon Technologies would acquire one of the many component manufacturers in the aerospace supply chain to Collins Aerospace.

Bulls Say’s

  • Pratt & Whitney’s placement on the A320 family and A220 aircraft should substantially increase the company’s installed base of engines, which would unlock decades of high-margin servicing revenue. 
  • The firm’s missile and missile defense segment produces products that are prioritized by the National Defense Strategy, which should lead to consistent growth. 
  • Raytheon Technologies is well balanced between commercial aerospace and defense, which would partially insulate the combined firm from a downturn in either segment.

Company Profile 

Raytheon Technologies is a diversified aerospace and defense industrial company formed from the merger of United Technologies and Raytheon, with roughly equal exposure as a supplier to the commercial aerospace manufactures and to the defense market as a prime and subprime contractor. The company operates in four segments: Pratt & Whitney, an engine manufacturer, Collins Aerospace, which is a diversified aerospace supplier, and intelligence, space and airborne systems, a mix between a sensors business and a government IT contractor, and integrated defense and missile systems, a defense prime contractor focusing on missiles and missile defense hardware. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

JB Hi-Fi’s Buyback Could Appeal to Taxpayers Depending on Personal Circumstances

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Material inflation is occurring in the home appliances category and presents both upside and downside risk to earnings. Management estimates prices for appliances, representing most sales at The Good Guys on estimate, have risen on average by about 8%. Higher average unit prices could bolster revenues in the second half, even if sales volumes decline as expected. However, relatively high inflation in relation to growth in consumers disposable income could weaken demand further, offsetting the positive impact. Management hasn’t yet observed any unusually high inflation in consumer electronics, the key category at JB Hi-Fi stores.

Higher online sales penetration and robust in-store sales at stand-alone stores offset the drop-in footfall to JB Hi-Fi’s mall stores. Low-single-digit group sales growth held up at similar levels to the December quarter-though continue to forecast a decline in the second half and sales decreasing by 3% in fiscal 2022.

Financial Strength:

A 2% decline in group sales and AUD 288 million in net profit after tax were pre-announced in January 2022. However, a surprise off-market buyback perhaps explains a 5% uptick in the shares following the release. JB Hi-Fi is returning AUD 250 million in funds via the buyback, following two strong years of trading which has resulted in an under-geared balance sheet and significant franking credits. The buyback price will be between 8% and 14% below the five-day volume-weighted average price, or VWAP, to April 8, 2022. A capital component of AUD 3.18 per share will be paid, with the remainder in the form of a fully franked dividend. At AUD 43.00 analysts estimate JB Hi-Fi will buy back 5.8 million shares or 5% of currently issued capital. While the expected buyback price is lower than current share prices, Australian taxpayers who have a low marginal tax rate could benefit materially from participating versus selling shares on market.

JB Hi-Fi declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 1.63 per share, representing a 65% payout ratio of first-half underlying earnings.

Company Profile:

JB Hi-Fi Limited is a specialty retailer of branded home entertainment products. The group’s products particularly focus on consumer electronics, electrical goods, and white goods through its JB Hi-Fi, JB Hi-Fi Home, and The Good Guys stores. The company primarily operates from stand-alone destination sites and shopping centre locations in Australia and New Zealand, but the online platform is becoming increasingly important.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

AMP focused on simplifying its business and reducing cost, with less emphasis on growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

AMP plans to simplify Australian Wealth Management, or AWM. It is focused on retaining larger, more profitable practices; so it can minimise compliance costs and regulatory breaches. Tighter compliance and education requirements are being enforced. The firm aims to retain its share of advisers through offering superior adviser support services, and aims to increase distribution via external advisers. Its extensive product suite will be reduced and made more cost-competitive to help attract future fund flows. AMP Bank has been merged with AWM as part of the group’s restructure.

Management intends to demerge, simplify and list AMP Capital’s unlisted real estate and infrastructure business. The directly-managed component of its listed investments business, known as Global Equities and Fixed Income, or GEFI, will be sold to Macquarie. The unlisted infrastructure debt business has also been sold to Ares. AMP’s immediate earnings outlook is subdued. Ongoing negative connotations to the AMP brand and higher education standards will prompt more advisers to leave AWM and deter prospective joiners into the AMP network–thus narrowing its distribution reach.

Financial Strength

AMP’s financial position is sound. AMP has consistently maintained a capital buffer above minimum regulatory requirements, or MRR, to help manage any unwelcome surprises in costs and navigate through periods of fluctuating earnings. AMP’s eligible capital resources as at Dec. 31, 2021, exceeds MRR and its internal target by about AUD 1.2 billion and AUD 383 million, respectively. The eligible capital/MRR ratio over the past five years has averaged 2.2 times. The lowest, however, was in 2021 with 1.9 times. AMP Bank is in sound financial health, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.4% as at Dec. 31, 2021. Another positive is a progressive increase in the deposit/loan ratio to 81% in December 2021, versus about 63% in 2015. 

The stable capital and funding positions provide comfort that it should be able to manage a potential increase in loan losses. However, there are risks that may impact AMP’s financial health. With ASIC and APRA expected to regulate AMP more aggressively, there is a possibility for further compliance costs, fines, remediation payments or class actions. The high execution risks in implementing its new strategy in the face of ongoing structural changes in the Australian financial advice industry is why there is limited scope for the board to return funds to shareholders in the near term.

Bulls Say’s

  • AMP remains the second-largest adviser network in Australia and can leverage scale to offer its services at a relatively lower cost to customers. 
  • AMP is well positioned to capture inflows from investors, notably the ageing demographic. People tend to seek out financial advice and be more concerned with retirement savings the closer they get to retirement. 
  • AMP should benefit from the progressive increase in the superannuation guarantee contribution rate to 12% by July 1, 2025.

Company Profile 

At its roots, AMP is a wealth manager, providing financial advice via Australia’s second-largest network of aligned financial advisers. It has a vertically integrated business model: AMP advisers can invest client funds into superfunds and non-super investments manufactured by AMP through the firm’s own platforms, though advisers are free to recommend non-AMP products and third-party platforms to their clients. The firm also has a small wealth presence in New Zealand with about 53 advisers. In addition, AMP has an investment management business, servicing both AMP’s adviser clients and external investors (such as institutional clients); and a retail banking business focused on deposit taking and residential mortgages.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Calendar 2021 Guidance Met and Cash Can Now Begin to Flow Again for Cimic

Business Strategy and Outlook

Cimic has developed the ability, reputation, and balance sheet strength to undertake numerous large-scale contract mining and construction projects simultaneously and in different countries. Few companies, apart from Cimic, in the domestic contract mining and construction market have the reputation, skill, knowledge, or capability to undertake challenging megascale mining and infrastructure projects. But excess returns of the recent past look to be a function of the China-driven commodities boom.

Cimic’s annual operating revenue is split 60%-65% engineering and construction work, 20%-25% contract mining and 10%-15% services and property development work. Cimic’s contract mining business is highly capital-intensive but inherently lower risk than construction. Domestic and international mining contracts are normally schedule-of-rates style, with Cimic assuming risk on productivity and volumes. Cimic lowers operating risk on contract mining work by mainly undertaking open-cut mining at coal and iron ore sites with quality deposits for large resource companies. However, competition can be fierce for new contract mining work and renewals.

Financial Strength

Cimic is in strong financial health. The company finished December 2021 with AUD 502 million in net debt, leverage (ND/(ND+E)) of 32% and net debt to EBITDA a comfortable 0.6. The company sold a 50% stake in its Thiess mining contracting business to the U.K.’s Elliot in 2020, the transaction generating AUD 2.1 billion net cash proceeds. Cimic’s capital intensity is tempered with exposure to the equipment heavy mining contracting sector lessened. This should enhance the rate of cash conversion in future. 

In addition to the cash proceeds, the Thiess sell-down reduces Cimic’s lease liability balance by approximately AUD 500 million. Net operating cash flow exceeded AUD 1.0 billion in each of the nine fiscal years preceding 2019, and free cash flow was positive in each of the last seven of those fiscal years. But net operating cash flow fell to AUD 927 million in 2019, not helped by one-off BIC Contracting exit costs in the Middle East and has been negative through to June 2021 due to COVID-19 and unwind in factoring. Traditionally, the company has a strong balance sheet and cash flow, which provides the necessary flexibility to tender for large infrastructure and mining contract projects. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Cimic could remain under pressure due to slower demand for mining services. Mining construction often involves higher levels of risk, as a result of fixed-price, fixed-time, and long-duration contracts. 
  • Cimic’s CEO was confidently forecasting strong earnings before COVID-19 led to an about-face and withdrawal of guidance. But Cimic says it is now building positive cash flow momentum again with awarding of new work. 
  • Increased focus on infrastructure construction projects and maintenance has helped stabilise earnings during weak market conditions for the domestic mining and energy sectors.

Company Profile 

Cimic is Australia’s largest contractor, providing engineering, construction, contract mining services to the infrastructure, mining, energy, and property sectors. The business structure consists of construction, contract mining, public-private partnerships, and property, along with 45%-owned Habtoor Leighton. Cimic has exited its Middle East business. ACS/Hochtief owns 76% of Cimic.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Glaxo’s Diverse Portfolio Looks Poised to Support Steady Earnings Growth Over the Long Term

Business Strategy and Outlook:

As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies, GlaxoSmithKline has used its vast resources to create the next generation of healthcare treatments. The company’s innovative new product line up and expansive list of patent-protected drugs create a wide economic moat, in our opinion. The magnitude of Glaxo’s reach is evidenced by a product portfolio that spans several therapeutic classes as well as vaccines and consumer goods. The diverse platform insulates the company from problems with any single product. Additionally, the company has developed next-generation drugs in respiratory and HIV areas that should help mitigate both branded and generic competition. Glaxo is expected to be a major competitor in respiratory, HIV, and vaccines over the next decade.

On the pipeline front, Glaxo has shifted from its historical strategy of targeting slight enhancements toward true innovation. Also, it is focusing more on oncology and immune system, with genetic data to help develop the next generation of drugs. The benefits of this strategies are showing up in Glaxo’s early-stage drugs. This focus is expected to improve approval rates and pricing power. In contrast to respiratory drugs, treatments for cancer indications carry much strong pricing power with payers.

Financial Strength:

Glaxo remains on fairly stable financial footing, with debt/EBITDA at 2.8 as of the end of 2021. While the company carries more debt than several of its peers, it generates relatively strong cash flows that should be largely stable. Glaxo has relatively higher debt levels than its peer group, and analysts don’t expect a major acquisition, but several smaller tuck-in acquisitions are likely as the firm augments its internal research and development efforts. Additionally, with the expected divestment of the consumer division in 2021, the combined dividend of the newly separated consumer group and the remaining pharma group are expected to be lower than the current dividend of the combined company as Glaxo has signalled a desire to invest more into the business at the expense of the dividend.

Bulls Say:

  • Glaxo’s next-generation respiratory drugs and HIV drugs look poised for strong growth over the next five years. 
  • Glaxo faces relatively minor near-term patent losses, setting up steady long-term growth. 
  • The firm’s well-positioned Shingrix vaccine should support strong long-term growth based on excellent efficacy and limited competition.

Company Profile:

In the pharmaceutical industry, GlaxoSmithKline ranks as one of the largest firms by total sales. The company wields its might across several therapeutic classes, including respiratory, cancer, and antiviral, as well as vaccines and consumer healthcare products. Glaxo uses joint ventures to gain additional scale in certain markets like HIV and consumer products.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.