Category: Shares

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Dollar Tree Inc

Electronic digital interface at a stock exchange or bourse showing the fluctuating prices of stocks and shares on the markets charting their performance

Our planned change is primarily a result of a higher ongoing tax rate assumption (26% statutory rate from 2022 onward, from 21% prior), as a time value of money-related adjustment mostly offsets the impact of a softer near-term outlook amid heightened freight costs. Our long-term targets still call for mid-single-digit annual top line growth and high-single-digit adjusted operating margins. We do not see a buying opportunity at the shares’ current trading price, despite a mid-single-digit percentage pullback after the announcement.

Quarterly comparable sales rose 4.7% at the Dollar Tree banner (with about a 100-basis-point impact from adverse weather in February) and fell 2.8% at Family Dollar (after a 15.5% increase in the same period of fiscal 2020 as consumers stocked up in the early days of the pandemic). We had expected a 5.5% increase and a 4% decline, respectively. Management set full-year guidance of $5.80- $6.05 in adjusted diluted EPS, including a $0.70-$0.80 freight cost headwind on a per share basis. Our prior $6.28 mark (excluding forecast share buybacks) will likely fall toward the new range, considering Dollar Tree’s heightened dependence on spot freight markets in light of capacity constraints.

Management still expects Dollar Tree Plus (a format that includes a section with certain discretionary items that cost more than the traditional $1 Dollar Tree limit) and its combo stores (which combine elements from the Family Dollar and Dollar Tree assortments in rural areas) to drive growth long term. We view the concepts favorably and think they should allow the company to leverage the strengths of each banner and its purchasing power. Still, we do not anticipate the benefits will include the development of an economic moat, considering the intense competitive environment

Profile

Dollar Tree operates discount stores in the U.S. and Canada, including over 7,800 shops under both its namesake and Family Dollar units (nearly 15,700 in total). The eponymous chain features branded and private-label goods, generally at a $1 price (CAD 1.25 in Canada). Nearly 50% of Dollar Tree stores’ fiscal 2020 sales came from consumables (including food, health and beauty, and household paper and cleaning products), just over 45% from variety items (including toys and housewares), and 5% from seasonal goods. Family Dollar features branded and private-label goods at prices generally ranging from $1 to $10, with over 76% of fiscal 2020 sales from consumables, 9% from seasonal/electronic items (including prepaid phones and toys), 9% from home products, and 6% from apparel and accessories.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares

Metcash Is Falling Behind

Convenience and locally tailored product ranges remain a point of differentiation for smaller independent retailers, but consumers are increasingly willing to sacrifice convenience for value.Scale has proved to be an important attribute, enabling the larger retailers to pass on better pricing through purchasing power and the ability to spread the cost of distribution across a wider revenue base. The volumes that Woolworths and Coles flow through their supply chains are considerably larger than those for Metcash.

  • The expansion of discount supermarket Aldi is likely to continue pressuring on profit margins in the Australian supermarket sector.
  • The larger supermarket groups are using their scale advantage to offer lower prices and take market share from independent retailers.
  • The expansion of its hardware business through the acquisition of the Home Timber & Hardware Group further diversified earnings, but the food and grocery business still accounts for the majority of earnings.
  • Metcash’s supermarket sales grew by 14% in the first quarter, still ahead of supermarket giant Coles. However, the temporary advantage of the many stores within Metcash’s network of independent IGAs is likely waning. While restrictions were severe, customers were more inclined to shop at their local grocer to avoid longer travel distances and crowds.
  • Metcash dominates the Australian wholesale distribution of packaged groceries to the independent retailer. From th small corner shop to the local independent supermarket, Metcash acts as a co-operative, funnelling independent sales volume through a single channel to derive buying power to negotiate volume discounts with manufacturers. Metcash is the fourth force in the supermarket and liquor industry, with 11% market share (IGA), with Woolworths and Coles accounting for 65%, and Aldi 9%.
  • The predominant supplier of packaged groceries to independent retailers provides a monopolistic market position to sustain above-average returns on capital.
  • Strategic and cost-cutting initiatives undertaken by Metcash are gaining traction. Also, independent supermarket operators across all states are stepping up investments in new stores, additional floor spare, and refurbishments.
  • Metcash’s acquisitive expansion of its hardware business has diversified the company’s earnings and cash flows away from the robust competition and lower margins experienced in the food and grocery business.
  • Intense competition between Coles, Woolworths, and Aldi is leading to price deflation to capture sales volume. A loss of volume from the independent channel could make it increasingly difficult for Metcash to match grocery pricing from its larger rivals.
  • Metcash’s customers (independent retailers) are effectively competing through differentiation of convenience, product range and service. These points of difference are likely to become marginalised in periods of economic constraint.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares

Netwealth Group -Still Racing Higher and Looking Increasingly Overvalued

However, with low switching costs, we expect strong FUMA growth to be offset by industry fee compression, as platform providers largely compete on price. We expect Netwealth to generate a revenue CAGR of 12% over the next decade, and the relatively fixed-cost nature of the business and associated operating leverage should drive margin expansion and a 13% EBIT CAGR over the decade.

Key Considerations

Netwealth is the largest independent investment administration platform in Australia but still only comprises around 3% of the market.

The wealth management sector is experiencing fee compression as a result of technological innovation, and we expect this trend to continue.

Administration platform fees could potentially compress to close to zero, as they have done in the U.S., where platform managers monetise their intellectual property via transactional revenue.

Netwealth provides investment administration software as a service, or SaaS, in Australia via its proprietary software platform, which includes investment portfolio administration, investment management tools, and investment and managed account services. The company charges for its software based on the value of funds under management on its platform, comprising over 95% of group revenue, in addition to providing Netwealth-branded investment products, which are managed by third-party investment managers.

In contrast to the independent platforms, the large vertically integrated wealth managers have narrow economic moat ratings. With the wealth business contributing less than 10% of earnings for most of these companies, their economic moats don’t necessarily reflect their platform businesses or even their wealth management businesses, as these companies are very large and diversified financial services organisations. However, IOOF, which only owns a vertically integrated wealth management business, has a narrow economic moat based on switching costs and intangible assets.

Netwealth may be affected by the requirement that financial advisors act in their clients’ “best interests” if financial advisors feel obliged to move their clients onto the cheapest administration platform. This could create significant downward fee pressure for platforms.

Netwealth operates in a commoditised industry and is much smaller than many of its competitors. We expect the larger administration platforms to continue improving the functionality of their platforms and compete more

aggressively on price.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

NIB Holdings Ltd – Grow Earnings Over Time

Approximately 53% of the population is covered by private health insurance because of taxation benefits, shorter wait times, a choice of doctor and hospital, and cover of ancillary health services. NIB demutualised and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2007. It is Australia’s fourth-largest health fund. Attractive long-term industry dynamics are supported by a growing population, government taxation incentives and penalties, and regulated pricing.

  • By spending on customer acquisition NIB can continue to take share, but annual growth in policyholders is expected to be low given affordability issues.
  • NIB can continue to generate attractive returns, using scale benefits and modest switching costs in a highly regulated industry. NIB could also participate in industry consolidation if smaller players become unprofitable.
  • We forecast mid-single digit earnings and dividend growth, with NIB’s 60% to 70% dividend payout ratio lower than peers being a reflection of the firm’s strategy to make small acquisitions to strengthen the private health business and diversify revenue.
  • NIB made two acquisitions to grow its travel insurance offering in recent years, with the rationale to diversify revenue outside of private health insurance, add exposure and scale in an industry expected to experience long-term growth, and leverage its claims management capability and existing distribution channels. We believe NIB will find success in cross-selling, but the business remains dependent on travel activity and being commoditised, is vulnerable to pricing pressure. While leveraging the NIB brand in Australia may come with some success, we do not believe insurers can build a competitive advantage on intangible assets.
  • Industry growth is tied to a steadily increasing population, ageing demographics and the unavoidable rise in healthcare spending. Governments will continue to incentivise participation in private health insurance to share the burden of escalating healthcare costs.
  • Premium growth is generally tied to the increasing cost of healthcare. The government regulator approves/rejects price increases as part of an annual review. Very few have been rejected which helps reduce uncertainty around insurance margins.
  • The symbiotic relationship of private hospital operators, and buyer power over general practitioners, is a key strength of NIB’s business model. Private hospitals are reliant on the private insurance system, as the majority of private hospital income is paid by the insurers.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

United Malt Group Ltd – Result as a Public Company Offers Optimism

Nonetheless, the company is the fourth-largest global malt processor and works with some of the world’s largest breweries and distillers as well as fast-growing craft producers. Although management expects United to face higher near-term costs related to its recent public listing, we think this will be offset by longer-term savings. But despite some attractive aspects of the business, we don’t think United has carved an economic moat. It is a commodity processor, with a high degree of fixed costs and limited ability to substantially differentiate its product.

Key Considerations

  • Although we anticipate craft beer consumption–a key driver for malt demand–will rise as a proportion of overall beer in United’s primary markets, the rate of growth is likely to slow, owing to the already high amount of craft brewers globally and flat overall beer volume trends.
  • Long-term client contracts, and the ability to pass through costs in periods of high barley prices help underpin a stable earnings stream and a manageable dividend policy.
  • We expect slowing end-market demand and limited barriers to supply additions driving returns on invested capital about equal to the company’s weighted average cost of capital.
  • Underlying earnings are stable, supported by longterm client contracts and its ability to pass through costs during periods of high barley prices.
  • United Malt benefits from rising craft beer production globally, which requires greater malt volumes and attracts higher prices.
  • Opportunities exist for further penetration into relatively underdeveloped beer markets, such as Asia and Latin America.
  • The commodity products that United Malt provide are readily available from competitors, and the company has little pricing power over the products it buys and sells, making for slim margins.
  • Barley acreage has declined in favour of other adjunct grains like corn or soybean in recent years, which could lead to periods of short supply and higher short-term costs.
  • The loss of key brewing customers, especially if they become self-sufficient for malt, could materially threaten its earnings stream.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.