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Global stocks Shares

Domino’s Performs Positive Results for the 2nd Quarter

Sustained strength abroad led us to revisit our international unit growth assumptions, pushing us to the low end of management’s 6%-8% guidance over the next few years (6.4%) and raising our fair value estimate to $410 per share from $386. However, we view the market’s reaction as overblown, with the shares trading up 14.5% at the time of writing against our 6.2% fair value estimate lift. The shares currently trade about 30% ahead of our fair value estimate.

In our view, the most impactful earnings discussion pertained to labor market pressure, with management indicating that restaurant margins (24.5%, up 60 basis points sequentially) were largely attributable to understaffing, as even the largest operators are struggling to attract workers in a historically tight hiring environment. The restaurant workforce remains about 10% smaller than its pre-pandemic level, and operators have increasingly leaned on wage hikes, benefits, signing bonuses, and operational efficiencies to fully staff stores. While we expect the best-capitalized operators with strong restaurant margins (like Domino’s) to best weather the storm, we forecast midterm labor costs 150 basis points higher than 2019 (normalized) levels, at 30.5% of restaurant sales.

The firm’s attention to car-side carryout looks strategically sound, with Domino’s using the channel to compete with quick-service drive-thrus without having to pursue more expensive real estate. The channel offers incremental sales, pushes the firm’s digital mix higher, and requires minimal involvement at the point of sale, alleviating pressure.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected that Domino’s to benefit from a shift toward lower cost fulfillment channels like the carryout business (and car side carryout) while continuing to automate noncore tasks like closing tills, managing inventory, and benefiting from optimized labor spending via predictive scheduling. Nonetheless, we remain encouraged by the firm’s long-term upside, with our revised forecast calling for 9.5% average system sales growth, 6% unit growth, and 11.5% EPS growth over the next five years.

Company Profile

Domino’s Pizza is a restaurant operator and franchiser with more than 17,800 stores across 90 countries. The firm generates revenue through the sales of pizza, wings, salads, and sandwiches at company-owned stores, royalty and marketing contributions from franchise-operated stores, and its network of 26 dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities, which centralize purchasing, preparation, and last-mile delivery for more than 6,800 units in the U.S. and Canada. With roughly $16 billion in 2020 system sales, Domino’s is the largest player in the global pizza market, ahead of Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

American Airlines: Significant Revenue Improvement to $19 FVE in the Second Quarter

Passenger revenue increased 105.8% from the previous quarter, the largest increase we’ve seen from U.S. network carrier this quarter, on a 44.4% increase in capacity, a 29.5% increase in load factors to 77.0% and a 10% increase in yield. These metrics remain 24.6%, 11.1%, and 11.4% below 2019 levels, respectively.

Management said business travel improved from roughly 20% of 2019 levels in March to 45% of 2019 levels in June and that much of the increase in demand was from travel within the West Coast. American has not traditionally had much of a presence in business travel on the West Coast, which suggests that the code sharing alliance that American initiated with Alaska Airlines is expanding American’s relevant market.

Company’s Future Outlook

There may be further upside to American’s share gains within business travel, as the firm initiated a code-sharing agreement with JetBlue, which has substantial share in the Northeast. Management said it expects 2022 CASM to be flat relative to 2019 levels, which is not as aggressive a target as peers have guided to. Since American is a domestically oriented airline and the domestic market has recovered faster than the international market, it is expected that the efficiency gains from restructuring should fall to the bottom line faster for American than for more internationally focused airlines as a larger proportion of the network would be in place in 2022.

Company profile

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Fisher’s FVE rose 4%, but pandemic-induced hospital demand is expected to return to normal

The trailing three-year revenue CAGR for homecare hardware has been an impressive 18% despite subdued new sleep apnoea diagnosis rates due to the pandemic. stronger growth in the near term due to Fisher’s recent mask launches and sleeping labs reopening, and growing clinical evidence supporting nasal high flow, or NHF, therapy for homecare COPD treatment to be a structural long-term tailwind.

COVID-19 hospitalisation rates in North America and Europe have come down substantially, with the two regions contributing 74% of fiscal 2021 revenue. We still foresee a significant drop as strong COVID-19-induced sales fade away, and we maintain our fiscal 2022 revenue prediction of NZD 1.6 billion. Widespread adoption depends on growing clinical evidence to support its use for different applications and generally involves direct marketing at each hospital. Our long-run revenue growth forecast for new applications consumables is broadly unchanged, increasing to 16% from 15% previously. Our midcycle group revenue growth and operating margin forecasts of 12% and 32%, respectively, are largely consistent with Fisher’s targets of 12% and 30%, respectively.

Fisher’s proprietary technology

Fisher’s intangible assets and switching costs evident in the hospital division will deliver sustainable excess returns. Fisher’s proprietary technology and patent portfolio have helped maintain its dominant market share and leading product innovation, particularly in NHF therapy. Fisher’s balance sheet is in sound condition and has low financial risk given low revenue cyclicality and a high contribution from consumables revenue.

Fisher has sustainably generated a ROIC at or above 22% though solid reinvestment in R&D and lower-cost manufacturing, and we forecast ROICs on average to continue at the current rate. Potential patent infringement and litigation costs is another potential ESG risk. For instance, Fisher was in patent infringement disputes with ResMed recently and ultimately resulted in NZD 60 million in litigation costs and was settled out of court.

Company Profile

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is one of the three largest respiratory care device companies globally. It is the market leader in hospital use humidifiers, masks and related consumables and the number three player in the at-home treatment of sleep apnoea using respiratory devices. Both the hospital and homecare markets for respiratory devices are growing strongly in the developed markets in which Fisher & Paykel has a presence. The company earns 42% of its revenue in the U.S., 32% in Europe, 18% in Asia-Pacific and the remaining 8% in emerging markets. Fisher conducts its own R&D and has thousands of patents and pending applications. It manufactures in New Zealand and Mexico and has a multi-channel distribution model.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Admiral Benefits from a Pricing Flaw in Motor Insurance

Admiral tends to aggressively increase its customer numbers in times of pricing flux by undercutting the competition in terms of pricing. We have seen this at least once before, and we believe that much more recently, such as last year, we saw this happen again. As Admiral grows these customer numbers, it increases not only its profit from underwriting but also these ancillary sources.

There are three factors causing flux in U.K. motor insurance prices: emerging from lockdown, regulatory pricing review, and regulatory restructuring of claims. These are all affecting motor insurance prices and giving Admiral Opportunities to undercut the competition and expand its customer base.

We believe consensus completely ignores this dynamic of customer growth at Admiral, and on this

Element we are very different. Our estimates for customer numbers are only three fourths of the numbers that investors witnessed during the last global financial crisis, but we are still well over double the 590-basis-point average annual customer growth as per Visible Alpha consensus.

Company Profile

Admiral is a personal lines insurer that writes most of its business in the United Kingdom. The company operates three business divisions: U.K. insurance, international car insurance, and other. This is a reduction from four since April 2021, when new CEO Milena Mondini de Focatiis announced the sale of Admiral’s price comparison businesses within Penguin Portals. This included www.confused.com, www.rastreator.com, www.lelynx.fr, and the group’s technology division, Admiral Technologies. The sale excluded Admiral’s U.S. price comparison business, www.compare.com. The total net transaction value was GBP 460 million, which Admiral intends to return to shareholders.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Bega Cheese’s Strength isn’t Strong Enough to Justify a Financial Moat

Competitive pressures from branded peers, niche operators, and private label products and a reliance on powerful supermarket customers will weigh on Bega’s ability to increase prices, leading to potential market share and margin deterioration. Despite the firm’s strategic shift toward a more diverse product offering, we expect dairy products to continue to represent the majority of Bega’s sales over the next decade, exposing the firm to commodity pricing and volatile input costs.

In November 2020, Bega entered an agreement to acquire Lion Dairy and Drinks from Kirin Group for AUD 534 million with the deal expected to be finalized in January 2021. Revenue from the branded segment, which includes spreads and grocery products and Lion’s Dairy and Drinks portfolio, to expand at a CAGR of 7.4% to fiscal 2025, underpinned by new product innovation and bolt-on acquisitions. Historically, Bega Cheese has made limited investment in its brands, particularly in Australia where Fonterra is the licensee of the Bega brand, however since acquiring the spreads and grocery business in 2018, marketing spend as proportion of revenue has increased to 3% from 1% and it to remain the higher level.

Bega Cheese’s Supply Chain and Manufacturing

At least 70% of Bega’s energy consumption is from fossil fuel generation. But these risks are immaterial to our unchanged AUD 5.00 per share fair value estimate and high uncertainty rating. Bega Cheese already operates in a highly competitive market, with a largely commoditized product offering and high private label penetration in key categories. Bega Cheese’s supply chain and manufacturing is heavily reliant on water, exposing the company to increased water costs and community backlash from inefficient water use.As pressure mounts to reduce global carbon emissions, there is the potential for a reintroduction of regulated carbon pricing in Australia, however, this is not factored into our base case. Extreme weather events such as droughts and bushfires may result in higher input costs, margin deterioration from reduced production volumes, disruptions to the supply chain and increased scrutiny on resource use. Climate change risk may lead to extreme weather in the short term or changing climate patterns longer-term impacting its supply chain and input costs. Management is certainly diversifying Bega Cheese’s product offering and building out the branded business through acquisitive growth in recent years

Financial Strength

Bega’s balance sheet will be stretched following the acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks, with pro forma net debt/EBITDA on a post AASB 16 basis deteriorating to 3.3 (from 2.3 pre-acquisition). Bega funded the acquisition through a AUD 401 million equity raising and AUD 267 million of new and extended debt facilities. The balance sheet to gradually deleverage as synergies are delivered, earnings improve and noncore assets are divested, with net debt/EBITDA falling to below the firm’s target of 2 by fiscal 2024. Bega will continue to explore potential bolt on acquisitions and partake in industry rationalisation. While the timing and scale of further acquisitions is uncertain, Bega has the capacity to pursue smaller acquisitions while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% normalised EPS.

Changing Consumer Trends

  • Bega is shifting investment to the spreads and grocery business, which we view as less commoditised and higher margin than dairy, with strong niche positions in Vegemite and peanut butter
  • External factors outside of Bega’s control, such as the weather, can adversely impact supply and demand dynamics. This can impact commodity prices, inputs costs and the firm’s supply chain and lead to volatile earnings
  • Changing consumer trends toward dairy-free and vegan diets could lead to declines in per-capita dairy and cheese consumption, weighing on the majority of Bega’s earnings

Company Profile

Bega Cheese is an Australian based dairy processor and food manufacturer of well-known brands including Bega Cheese and Vegemite. On a pre-acquisition of Lion’s Dairy and Drink’s basis, the firm generated approximately 70% of sales from its domestic market, with the remainder from exports to over 40 countries, predominately in Asia. Bega Cheese operates two segments: the branded segment which produces consumer packaged goods primarily sold through the supermarket and foodservice channels and the bulk segment which produces commodity dairy ingredients primarily sold through the business-to-business channel.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Mettler-Toledo Returning to Sales and Earnings Growth

While the competitive nature of these markets makes incremental share gain somewhat difficult, we see opportunity for organic growth and share gains in product inspection, industrial, and food retail. Mettler places an intense focus on sales and marketing and has leveraged its Spinnaker and Stern Drive programs to operate with high efficiency and maintain strong customer retention.

Despite relatively slow market growth in weighing instrumentation, Mettler has achieved steady above-market share gains and has established a niche in high-end laboratory balances. Impressively, the firm has posted consistent pricing and margin gains over the past decade, even during the great financial crisis, 2015-16 industrial downturn and COVID-19 pandemic. Tepid industry growth holds potential competitors at bay, given that new entrants would find it difficult to take meaningful share, and the reward for doing so would be relatively small.

Higher inflation could limit earnings growth because Mettler may find it difficult to pass on pricing increases to clients that are more than the customary 2 percent to 3 percent range. Nonetheless, because the company works in established, stable markets, the long-term picture for the company appears positive.

Despite shareholder pressure on financial allocation, Mettler has taken a methodical approach to acquisitions.

Financial Strength

Mettler-Toledo has good financial strength and has consistently maintained solid levels of free cash flow and reasonable debt, which stood at 1.5 times EBITDA in December 2020. Mettler has generated increasing levels of free cash flow in each of the past four years, with $240 million of cash flow in 2016 increasing to nearly $650 million in 2020. Mettler has typically used much of this cash flow on share buybacks, which have totaled nearly $2.8 billion over the last five years. Apart from repurchases, Mettler has occasionally made moderately sized acquisitions, such as the $105 million purchase of pipette consumable vendor Biotix in 2017, and the $96 million acquisition of lab equipment company Henry Troemner in 2016.

Bulls Say

  • Despite the slow market growth of balances, Mettler has consistently exceeded analyst expectations, and the company has unmatched operating efficiency.
  • Mettler has shown impressive cost discipline during the COVID-19 pandemic. With a flexible cost structure and healthy balance sheet, Mettler is poised to benefit from a post-crisis economic rebound.
  • Though details of the programs remain somewhat opaque, the Spinnaker and Stern Drive initiatives appear to be significant contributors to the firm’s consistent market-beating results, and these programs are set to continue.

Company Profile

Mettler-Toledo supplies weighing and precision instruments to customers in the life sciences (54% of 2020 sales), industrial (40%), and food retail industries (6%). Its products include laboratory and retail scales, pipettes, pH meters, thermal analysis equipment, titrators, metal detectors, and X-ray analyzers. Mettler leads the market for weighing instrumentation and controls more than 50% of the market for lab balances. The business is geographically diversified, with sales distribution roughly as follows: the United States around 30% of sales, Europe around 30%, China around 20%, and the rest of the world around 20%.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Raising Our Tesla FVE to $550 on Improved Profitability Outlook; Shares Slightly Overvalued

Tesla also invests around 6% of its sales into R&D, focusing on improving its market-leading technology and reducing its manufacturing costs. The company will also move upstream into battery production, with a goal to reduce costs by over 50%. Tesla also sells solar panels and batteries used for energy storage to consumers and utilities.

After taking a fresh look at Tesla, we are raising our fair value estimate to $550 per share from $354. The increased fair value estimate comes from our outlook for higher long-term profitability in the automotive segment. We maintain our narrow moat rating but downgrade our moat trend rating to stable from positive. At current prices, shares as slightly overvalued, with the stock trading above our fair value estimate but within 25% of our fair value estimate, which is the upper end of the range for 3-star territory based on our uncertainty rating. A little over 5.1 million vehicles sold in 2030, up from 4.3 million, due to a greater number of affordable vehicles, which Tesla nicknamed the $25,000 car.

Management’s cost reduction initiatives driving long-term gross margin expansion. In its September Battery Day event, Tesla unveiled plans to reduce battery costs by 56%. Tesla will be able to achieve these cost reductions, without reducing prices, which will reduce vehicle unit costs and increase gross profit per vehicle. In addition to cost reductions, the mix shift to the Model Y will also increase automotive gross profit margins. The Model Y is built on the Model 3 platform, and management says the cost of production for a Model Y is not that much more than the Model 3. Given that the Model Y’s entry level price is $12,500, or roughly 30%, more expensive than the Model 3, we see gross profit margins expanding as a greater proportion of Model Y vehicles are sold.

Tesla’s EV prices will remain at or above the price of a comparable internal combustion engine or hybrid vehicle. This should lead to Tesla’s cost reduction efforts driving profit margin expansion. Tesla’s second largest vehicle platform over the next decade, with the two platforms generating nearly 90% of total volumes. Similar to Tesla starting with the Model 3 and then transitioning to sell more Model Ys, we expect Tesla will start with a $25,000 car and then transition to produce a greater proportion of SUVs from the platform.

Financial Strength

Tesla is in solid financial health as cash and cash equivalents exceeded total debt as of March 31, 2021. Total debt was roughly $10.9 billion, with about $5.1 billion of that amount nonrecourse debt mostly backed by asset-backed security issuances for the auto and energy businesses, China debt, and a warehouse line secured by cash flows from vehicle leasing contracts. To fund its growth plans, Tesla has used convertible debt financing as well as equity offerings and credit lines to raise capital. As of March 31, 2021, the company has $2.15 billion in unused committed amounts under credit lines and financing funds. In 2020, the company raised $12.3 billion in three equity issuances.

 Tesla‘s Unique Supercharger Network

  • Tesla has the potential to disrupt the automotive and power generation industries with its technology for EVs, AVs, batteries, and solar generation systems.
  • Tesla will see higher profit margins as the company achieves its plan to reduce battery costs by 56% over the next several years.
  • Through the combination of its industry-leading technology and unique Supercharger network, Tesla offers the best function of any EV on the market, which will result in the company maintaining its market leader status as EV adoption increases.

Company Profile

Founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, Tesla is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and mid-size sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light-truck, semi-truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2020 were roughly 500,000 units.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Genworth will find it Challenging to Grow its LMI Business In the face of Slow Credit growth and Increased Competition

Arch Capital Group received Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, or APRA, approval to enter the market in 2019 and announced it would acquire Westpac’s LMI business in 2021. This marked increased competition for Genworth and QBE in Australia.

LMI protects a lender against a potential gap between the outstanding loan amount plus costs and the sale proceeds from the mortgaged property. While it’s the lender who is protected and decides whether to purchase LMI, the premium is paid by the borrower. Low growth in high loan/value ratio, or HLVR loans, due to low system wide home loan growth, as well as banks being more risk-averse after the Royal Commission and tightening of lending standards is expected. An economic backdrop where Australians are holding historically high levels of home-loan debt, and wage growth is low, makes strong credit growth and a significantly stronger appetite for loans with higher LVRs unlikely.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Higher-risk home loan exposure means Genworth is very sensitive to the Australian economy, particularly employment and house prices. In a downturn, it faces the likely lower premiums, higher claims and reduced investment returns.
  • The full-recourse nature of Australia’s home loans reduces potential claims risks and in a benign economy it has proved profitable, earning profits in all but two years of its roughly 50-year history.
  • A sound balance sheet means there is the prospect of further capital-management initiatives.

Financial strength

Genworth is regulated by APRA to maintain a certain prescribed capital level, or PCA. Genworth’s PCA is driven primarily by its LMI concentration risk charge (which is mainly based on its probable maximum loss based on a three-year economic or property downturn of an APRA determined 1-in-200 year severity level) and insurance risk charge (the risk that net insurance liabilities are greater than the value determined by the actuary). Genworth targets a regulatory capital base of 1.32 times-1.44 times its PCA, which it has been consistently above. The PCA as at March 31, 2021, is a healthy 1.63 times.

Bulls Say

  • Fiscal and monetary stimulus cushion the economic downturn in Australia, resulting in a rise in

delinquencies but allows Genworth to remain profitable and continue to generate profits over the longer term.

  • A sound balance sheet provides the capacity to continue to institute capital management initiatives, including special dividends and buying back more shares.
  • The recent relaxation of some macro-prudential measures and low cash rates may spur lenders to issue more investor and HLVR home loans, which Genworth is well positioned to benefit from.

Company Profile

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2014 after its U.S.-based parent, Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW), sold down its stake. It has since exited. With a history spanning over 50 years, Genworth Australia is a provider of lenders’ mortgage insurance, or LMI, in Australia. In Australia, LMI is predominantly purchased on loans with a loan/value ratio, or LVR, above 80%. LMI protects a lender against a potential loss (gap) between the outstanding loan amount and sale proceeds on a delinquent loan property. LMI does not protect the borrower, however the premium is paid by the borrower. It’s regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, or APRA, which requires it to meet minimum regulatory capital requirements.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Endeavour’s Leadership: Encouragement in Sustainable Cost Advantages of liquor market

Woolworths’ divestment of Endeavour separated the ESG risk of alcohol retailing and gaming machine operation from the broader supermarkets business and provided investors with the ability to tailor their risk exposures to each business. The impetus for divestment had risen in the years leading up to the separation of Endeavour as a standalone company along with the emergence of social oriented investment.

Endeavour’s business is divided into two segments. Its retail segment is Australia’s leading vertically integrated omnichannel liquor retailer, while Endeavour’s hotels segment provides hospitality services and gambling operations.

Company’s Future Outlook

We expect consumer demand for alcohol to be relatively steady through the economic cycle, exhibiting attributes of consumer defensives. For instance, like in food, liquor spending grew at around or above the 30-year average growth rate of 7% in fiscal years 2008 and 2009, respectively. However, data stretching back to the last Australian recession suggests liquor demand isn’t always recession-proof. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian consumers significantly cut back on drinking in fiscal 1991 and liquor retailing took over two years to recover to its fiscal 1990 levels.

We estimate the Australian hotels market will predominantly be driven by the same factors as the off premises retail liquor market, namely population growth and inflation. We estimate a total market size at AUD 15 billion in fiscal 2020 and anticipate this to grow at a CAGR of 6% from lockdown-affected calendar 2020 to AUD 27 billion by fiscal 2030

Bulls Say

– Endeavour’s dominant retail market share of 47% is multiples of its closest competitors and provides a source of long-term sustainable cost advantage.

– Endeavour’s partnership agreements with Woolworths allow the business to leverage the scale and capabilities of Australia’s largest supermarket.

– Endeavour’s wide economic moat, strong competitive positioning and strong balance sheet will underpin a sustainable and steadily growing dividend.

Company Profile

Endeavour Group Ltd is an Australian drinks retailer of products such as liquor and operator of various licensed hospitality venues. Its portfolio of brands include Dan Murphy’s, BWS, Pinnacle Drinks, ALH Hotels, Jimmy Brings, Langton’s, among others.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

ARB Is an Attractive Business, but the Price Needs to Improve

Shares in ARB trade at a material premium to our unchanged fair value estimate of AUD 19.50. Granted, ARB is a high quality company. The firm’s ranges of vehicle accessories have established significant brand strength in Australia, underpinning our narrow economic moat rating for the firm.

The firms is extremely well-run and assign ARB an Exemplary capital allocation rating based on our assessment of balance sheet risk, investment efficacy, and shareholder distribution. We expect ARB to enjoy some operating leverage as its store network expands and its international businesses, most notably in the U.S., improve scale. But we do not believe the firm’s international foray will replicate the success enjoyed domestically.

The firm has been unable to enjoy this pricing premium offshore, as demonstrated by lower segment margins. In our view, ARB’s current lofty share price indicates domestic success is being extrapolated by investors to the firm’s international business.

Financial Strength

ARB’s balance sheet is in pristine condition. At Dec. 31, 2020, the company had no debt and a net cash position of AUD 84 million. This is despite major investment in the Thailand and Victoria warehouses and continued new store rollouts. We forecast the firm remaining in a net cash position through fiscal 2021, with short-term financing facilities providing further headroom in the balance sheet to meet cash flow requirements. The firm’s major funding requirements are store rollouts, international expansion, and working capital in line with growing sales.

Bulls Say

  • Online competition is not a significant threat to ARB’s business. Products usually require professional fitting (often in ARB stores), and the often heavy and bulky accessories can make delivery cost prohibitive.
  • ARB’s range of vehicle accessories have established significant brand strength, underpinning its narrow economic moat, allowing the firm to enjoy pricing power and high returns on invested capital.
  • ARB has opportunities for growth with store roll-outs in Australia and continued overseas expansion.

Company Profile

ARB Corporation designs, manufactures, and distributes four-wheel-drive and light commercial vehicle accessories. The firm has carved a niche with aftermarket accessories including bull bars, suspension systems, differentials, and lighting. ARB operates manufacturing plants in Australia and Thailand; sales and distribution centers across several countries. The Australian division, which generates the vast majority of group earnings, distributes through the ARB store network, ARB stockiest, new vehicle dealers, and fleet operators.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.