Investment Thesis:
- Trading below analysts’ valuation
- Fundamentals for the vehicle aftermarket continue to remain strong (with increase in second hand vehicle sales; travellers seeking social distancing and hence moving away from public transport; with Covid lockdown measures in forced, more people are spending their holidays domestically utilising their vehicles)
- Significant opportunities within BAP to drive growth (expanding network; increase market share by leveraging BAP’s Victorian DC; enhance supply chain efficiencies; driven own brand growth).
- Strong earnings growth profile
- Further opportunity to grow gross profit margins from better buying terms with tier one and two suppliers
- Significant distribution network across Australia to leverage from
- Ongoing bolt on acquisitions and associated synergies
- Growing BAP’s own brand strategy, which should be positive for margins
- BAP is on track to reach their 5-year targets to supplement market leading brands with BAP’s own brand products
- Weak macro story of leveraged Australian consumer and lower growth environment persisting
- Thailand represents a meaningful opportunity
Key Risks:
- Rising competitive pressures
- Value destructive acquisition
- Rising cost pressures eroding margins (e.g. more brand or marketing investment required due to competitive pressures)
- Given the high trading multiples the stock trades at, a disappointing earnings update could see the stock price significantly re-rate lower
- Integration (and therefore synergies) of recent acquisitions underperform market expectations
- Execution risk around Thailand
Key highlights:
- BAP delivered a record result with FY21 revenue up +20.4% over the pcp, driven by increased revenue and earnings across all business segments
- Pro forma EBITDA and NPAT, were up +28.8%, and +46.5% respectively, over the pcp.
- The revenue and EBITDA generated by segments are:
- Trade: Delivered record revenue of $649m, up by 15.5% and EBITDA of $115m, which is up by 19%
- New Zealand: Revenue of $170m, was up 8.8% and EBITDA of $33m, was up 21.2%
- Specialist Wholesale (‘SWG’): Revenue of $660m, and EBITDA of $90m was up +26.8% and +42.2% respectively
- Retail: Revenue of $369m increased +26.1% and EBITDA of $65m increased +20.1%
- Asia: On BAP’s 25% investment in Tye Soon and Thailand, management highlighted revenue up by 26% and profit after tax of $2.2m
Company Description:
Bapcor Ltd (BAP) is Australasia’s leading provider of aftermarket parts, accessories and services. The core businesses of BAP are: (1) Trade – Burson Auto Parts is a trade focused parts professional supplying workshops with all their parts and accessories. (2) Retail – Autobarn is the premium retailer of auto accessories and Opposite Lock specializes in 4WD accessory specialists. (3) Independents – supporting the independent parts stores via the group’s extensive supply chain capabilities and through brand support. (4) Specialist Wholesaler – the number 1 or 2 industry category specialists in parts supply programs. (5) Services – experts at car servicing through Midas and ABS.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.