Category: Research

Business Strategy and Outlook

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story was based on realizing cost efficiencies from its transformational 2013 merger with U.S. Airways and strengthening the firm’s hubs to expand margins. While we think that American Airlines has done a good job at limiting unit cost increases, we note that the firm lagged peers in unit costs over the previous aviation cycle. Management sees the pandemic crisis as an opportunity to structurally improve the firm’s cost position relative to peers.

In the leisure market, it is expected low-cost carriers to prevent American Airlines from increasing yields with inflation. American’s basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, it is not expected that the firm to thrive in this segment. A leisure-led recovery in commercial aviation is anticipated, reflecting customers being more willing to visit friends and family and vacation in a pandemic than they are to go on business travel.

American Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel after a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available. It is suspected that a recovery in business travel will be critical for American, as the firm’s high-margin frequent-flier program is closely tied to business travel. Business travellers will often use miles from a co-branded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks pay top dollar for frequent-flier miles, which gives American a high-margin income stream.

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and many of our projections are based on our assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. We’re expecting a full recovery in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term.

Financial Strength

American is the most leveraged U.S.-based major airline due to its fleet renewal program and from the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business model, liquidity has become more important in 2020 than in recent years. American Airlines, more than peers, increased leverage, and diluted equity during the COVID-19 pandemic. We think American Airlines’ comparably higher financial leverage will make it difficult for the firm to maneuver going forward, and that management will have few capitals allocation options other than deleveraging post-pandemic. American Airlines came into the crisis with considerably more debt than peers, with gross debt to EBITDA sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. American ended 2021 with $38.1 billion of debt and $13.4 billion of cash. It is expected that American Airlines will use incremental free cash flow to deleverage after the crisis. We anticipate EBITDA expansion and debt reductions will reduce gross debt/EBITDA to roughly two to three turns in the 2025-26 timeframe. The firm has $2.6 billion of debt coming due in 2022, and we expect that the firm will use cash on the balance sheet to pay the debt.

Bulls Say’s

• American Airlines has the youngest fleet among U.S. major airlines, which should dampen fuel expense and maintenance going forward.
• American Airlines has largely completed its fleet renewal, which should decrease capital expenditures going forward.
• Leisure travellers are becoming more comfortable with flying during the COVID-19 pandemic

Company Profile

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Five Below’s management team has generated consistent returns by leveraging a differentiated concept and prudent expansion strategy. The firm should be able to expand profitably, as its nimble supply and distribution network are well-suited to meeting the ever-changing demands of its customers (preteens, teenagers, and their money-wielding parents). Five Below offers a variety of items in a tailored store environment while giving parents a measure of cost-certainty, a concept that should remain attractive to shoppers under a range of economic scenarios. 

Still, online retailers’ cost leverage is rising, and as it is estimated that many of Five Below’s target households have access to an Amazon Prime membership, the digitization threat looms. Competitive pressure also comes from physical rivals, including mass merchants dedicating aisles to items priced at a given dollar amount or less. 

Financial Strength

Debt-free with ample cash generation, Five Below’s financial health is strong. Shifting its assortment to include more cleaning and essential products kept the stores open even as infection rates soared in late-2020. Store growth should remain a capital priority (albeit with a continued reliance on leased locations) during our 10-year explicit forecast, with our estimates suggesting Five Below will exceed its 2,500-unit nationwide target toward the end of that time frame. Five Below’s cash generation should lead to share repurchases, escalating as its distribution center build-out is completed. It is estimated that the firm eventually uses roughly 65% of its annual cash flow from operations to buy back equity. Alternatively, it could pursue acquisitions of regional chains to accelerate its growth, though we do not incorporate such purchases into our forecasts because of their uncertain timing and nature.

Bulls Say’s 

• Five Below’s differentiated concept gives its core customers access to a wide range of items while providing parents cost certainty, a combination enabled by its efficiency and flexible merchandising. 
• One of the few sizable retailers we cover with significant room for expansion, Five Below should build cost leverage as it grows, helping to protect margins from competitive erosion. 
• Strategically entering new markets with several stores opened concurrently, Five Below has rapidly gained an ability to spread distribution, supply chain, and advertising costs over a large local sales base.

Company Profile 

Five Below is a value-oriented retailer that operated 1,020 stores in the United States as of the end of fiscal 2020. Catering to teen and preteen consumers, stores feature a wide variety of merchandise, the vast majority of which is priced below $6. The assortment focuses on discretionary items in several categories, particularly leisure (such as sporting goods, toys, and electronics; 47% of fiscal 2020 sales), fashion and home (for example, beauty products and accessories, home goods, and storage solutions; 36% of fiscal 2020 sales), and party and snack (including seasonal goods, candy, and beverages; 17% of fiscal 2020 sales). The chain had stores in 38 states as of the end of fiscal 2020.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Business Strategy and Outlook:

United Airlines is the most internationally focused U.S.-based carrier by operating revenue, with almost 40% of 2019 revenue coming from international activities. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the company’s story focused on realizing cost efficiencies to expand margins. It is anticipated that United’s international routes will not be as pressured, but that international flights will be difficult to fill until a COVID-19 vaccine is developed and distributed. A recovery in business travel is believed to be critical for United to maintain the attractive economics of the frequent flier program. Business travellers will often use miles from a cobranded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks are willing to pay top dollar for these frequent flier miles, which provides a high-margin income stream to United.

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and most of our projections are based on our assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. A full recovery in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel is expected that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term.

Financial Strength:

United has a roughly average debt burden relative to peer U.S. carriers, but an average airline balance sheet is not strong in absolute terms. United carries a large amount of debt, comparatively thin margins, and substantial revenue uncertainty. As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business models, liquidity has become more important than in recent years. The primary risks to airline investors are increased leverage and equity dilution as airlines look to bolster solvency while demand is in the doldrums.

United’s priority after the pandemic will be deleveraging the balance sheet, but it is expected that this will take several years due to the firm’s thin margins. United came into the pandemic with a reasonable amount of debt, with the gross debt/EBITDA ratio sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. United, like all airlines, has materially increased its leverage since February 2020 and has issued debt and received support from the government to survive a previously unfathomable decline in air traffic. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, United has $33.4 billion of debt and $18.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

Bulls Say:

• United has renewed its frequent flier partnership with Chase, potentially creating room for long-term margin expansion. 
• An increasing focus on capacity restraint across the industry, combined with structurally lower fuel prices, should boost airlines’ financial performance over the medium term. 
• Leisure travellers have more comfortable with flying during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Profile:

United Airlines is a major U.S. network carrier. United’s hubs include San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, and Washington, D.C. United operates a hub-and-spoke system that is more focused on international travel than legacy peers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Despite initial fears, Discover came through the COVID-19 pandemic with few issues. Its credit card portfolio–its largest source of income–shrank 7% in 2020, a year when most credit card issuers saw declines in the double digits. Perhaps more surprisingly, net charge-offs fell in 2020 and have remained well below normal levels since, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total loans. We anticipate credit costs will be higher in 2022 but given how low the firm’s delinquency rates are we do not expect a full return to normal credit costs until 2023. We don’t expect this to put any pressure on the bank’s balance sheet as Discover is in a strong financial position to withstand higher credit losses. 

Discover generates most of its revenue through interest income from its credit cards (roughly 70% of its net revenue). While the company has strong positions in the private student debt and personal loan markets in addition to operating its own payment network, its long-term health will be driven by its ability to build and sustain its portfolio of credit card receivables. Discover’s credit card business has been performing very well in recent years, with receivable growth and credit results better than most of its peers. With the majority of its credit cards and student loans charging variable interest rates, the bank will also be a beneficiary of rising interest rates, though this is limited by the firm’s reliance on online deposits. 

In the long run, Discover must continue to deal with the challenges that come with being smaller than many of its competitors in size and scope. Many of the traditional banks that the company competes with can offer their cardholders a broader selection of products and services. Discover’s more traditional competitors often benefit from a lower cost of funding driven by their strong deposit bases. While it is unlikely that Discover will ever fully replicate the product offerings of some its peers, it has made good progress in improving its funding cost through the use of online savings accounts. We are encouraged by its initial forays into checking accounts, as this should help Discover further narrow the cost of funding gap

Financial Strength

Efforts to conserve capital by suspending share buybacks in the initial stages of the pandemic paid off and the company was able to navigate the uncertainty of 2020 and 2021 with ease. Despite increasing shareholder returns in the second half of the year, Discover came out of 2021 in a strong financial position, ending the year with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of ratio of 14.8%. We expect the firm to continue its share repurchases in 2022 as Discover works to move back toward its target Tier 1 ratio of 10.5%. In our view, this is an adequate reserve ratio, given that historically the firm has had strong underwriting standards with credit card net charge-off rates below its peers.

 The firm has had success in improving its funding, with more than 70% of total funding now coming from deposits. On the other hand, Discover primarily relies on online savings accounts and brokered deposits. This means it must compete on price for accounts, giving it a higher cost of funding than many of its peers. The company is seeking to mitigate this with an expansion into online checking, but these efforts are still in their early stages.

Bulls Say’s

• Discover has consistently been able to generate returns on equity that are among the highest of its peers. 
• Discover’s credit card receivables growth has been above the industry average for some time now. This outperformance continued in 2020 when its receivables balance shrank less than its peers’. 
• Discover has made good progress in improving its deposit base through online savings accounts and more recently online checking.

Company Profile 

Discover Financial Services is a bank operating in two distinct segments: direct banking and payment services. The company issues credit and debit cards and provides other consumer banking products including deposit accounts, students loans, and other personal loans. It also operates the Discover, Pulse, and Diners Club networks. The Discover network is the fourth-largest payment network in the United States as ranked by overall purchase volume, and Pulse is one of the largest ATM networks in the country.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Fresenius Medical Care treats end-stage renal disease patients through its dialysis clinic network, medical technology, and care coordination activities. Its strengths in these related areas help Fresenius maintain the leading global position in this market. After pandemic conditions recede, it is likely for the company to benefit from solid demand in developed markets, such as the U.S., and even faster expansion in emerging markets, such as China, in the long run. With global ESRD patient growth expected to remain in the low to mid-single digits in the long run, top-line growth for Fresenius to be toward the top of that range after a very weak 2021 and even higher earnings growth compounded annually during the next five years, as the firm wrings out more efficiencies and repurchases shares. 

The company’s position as the top dialysis service provider and equipment maker in the world remains symbiotic and unique. Fresenius’ experience operating over 4,100 dialysis clinics around the globe (about 1,000 more than the next-largest player, DaVita) gives it insights into caregiver and patient needs to inform service offerings and product innovation. Fresenius uses clinical observations to develop and then manufacture even better technology to treat ESRD patients. It outfits all its clinics with its own brand of equipment and consumables, which has margin implications related to system costs and operating efficiency for staff. However, other dialysis clinics appreciate Fresenius’ technology as well, and Fresenius claims about 35% market share in dialysis equipment/consumables while serving only 9% of ESRD patients through its global clinics. Especially telling, main rival DaVita remains one of Fresenius’ top product customers. 

With growing clinical and payer support for at-home treatments, Fresenius is taking aim at those ESRD therapies with significant investments, too. It recently purchased NxStage Medical for home hemodialysis, which appears differentiated in the industry for its ease of use and physical size. The company also aims to improve on its peritoneal dialysis offering where Baxter has traditionally excelled.

Financial Strength

Fresenius maintains a manageable balance sheet, despite its high lease-related obligations and capital-allocation strategy that includes acquisitions and significant returns to stakeholders. The company receives investment-grade ratings from the three major U.S. rating agencies, which should help it access the debt markets for any necessary refinancing. As of September 2021, Fresenius owed EUR 9 billion in debt and had lease obligations around EUR 5 billion. On a net debt/EBITDA basis, leverage stood at roughly 3 times, which appears manageable and in line with the firm’s previous long-term goal of 2.5-3.0 times, which excluded lease obligations. After generating over EUR 3 billion of free cash flow in 2020 including government aid, free cash flow looks likely to decline to about EUR 1.5 billion before rising to about EUR 2.0 billion by 2026. It is not held the firm will face any significant refinancing risks during the next five years even as it continues to push cash out to stakeholders and pursue acquisitions. While acquisitions remain difficult to predict, the company pays a dividend to shareholders (EUR 0.4 billion in 2020) and makes distributions to noncontrolling interests (EUR 0.4 billion in 2020). It also repurchased EUR 0.4 billion in shares in 2020, and it is alleged more repurchases going forward. With those expected outflows to stakeholders and significant debt maturities coming due in the foreseeable future, it is supposed Fresenius may be an active debt issuer going forward.

 Bulls Say’s

• Diversified by geography and business mix, Fresenius should be able to benefit from ongoing growth in treating ESRD patients worldwide once the pandemic recedes. 
• Increasing at-home treatment rates could raise demand for the company’s at-home systems and boost how long patients can continue to work and stay on commercial insurance plans, which can positively affect the company’s profitability. 
• Through its venture capital arm, Fresenius is investing in new ways to treat ESRD patients, aside from more traditional dialysis tools, which should help keep it at the forefront of this market.

Company Profile 

Fresenius Medical Care is the largest dialysis company in the world, treating about 345,000 patients from over 4,100 clinics across the globe as of September 2021. In addition to providing dialysis services, the firm is a leading supplier of dialysis products, including machines, dialyzers, and concentrates. Fresenius accounts for about 35% of the global dialysis products market and benefits from being the world’s only fully integrated dialysis business. Services account for roughly 80% of firmwide revenue, including care coordination and ancillary operations, while products account for the other roughly 20%. Products typically enjoy a higher margin, making them a strong contributor to the bottom line. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.