Category: Technical Picks

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Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

CyrusOne Doing Well in Europe and With Hyperscalers, but It Doesn’t Have the Connectivity We Prefer

While the firm has seen major growth in interconnection revenue recently, as more enterprises are co-locating and connecting with their cloud providers, it does not operate any major Internet exchanges, and its properties are less network-dense than top competitors, so we think little differentiates its offering.

CyrusOne believes cloud companies favor outsourcing data centers because they can earn higher returns on capital in their core businesses and data center companies have building efficiency expertise and a cost advantage. CyrusOne is quickly expanding its portfolio to exploit the opportunity. It has nearly 3 times as much undeveloped land as developed and is now expanding outside the U.S. In 2017, it announced an operating partnership with GDS (to gain exposure to the Chinese market) and the acquisition of Zenium (two data centers each in Frankfurt and London). It intends to continue adding in Europe in the near term before focusing more on Asia.

Given the switching costs inherent in the industry and what is effectively CyrusOne’s first-mover advantage in procuring its existing tenants, it is expected that the firm will continue to grow and retain its customers. However, CyrusOne’s strategy to accumulate land and continue building could ultimately prove too aggressive, and it may not be able to fill all its future space on comparable terms, especially given cloud providers’ bargaining power (they have the size and financial ability to keep data centers in-house, and they provide the attraction for CyrusOne’s other tenants). CyrusOne is currently heavily investing, and it will ultimately realize a worthy payoff.

Financial Strength

CyrusOne’s financial position does not seem to be strong, but lack of near-term debt maturities and the ability to issue equity to fund expansion keep this from being a significant near-term concern. CyrusOne is one of the more highly leveraged data center companies we cover–nearly 6 times net debt/EBITDA at the end of 2020–but as a wholesale provider, it has long-term contracts in place with very financially strong tenants, so it should be able to easily meet its obligations, especially with no significant debt maturing before 2024. The firm has taken advantage of low interest rates and its investment-grade credit rating to reduce floating-rate debt to about one third of its total (down from about half at the end of 2019) and bring its weighted average cost of debt down to only about 2% at the end of 2020. CyrusOne has posted negative free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) each year since it went public in 2012, and to remain negative until 2024, as the company continues its aggressive expansion. 

Bulls Say

  • CyrusOne’s rapid expansion and increasing global presence makes it best positioned to capitalize on the huge demand for data centers brought on by cloud usage and a more data-dependent world. 
  • The Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and other innovations that increase the demand for data and connectivity leave us in the early innings of a data center renaissance. 
  • CyrusOne’s global presence makes it a more attractive landlord for customers that prefer consistent providers worldwide. Only a handful of companies can offer a similar proposition.

Company Profile

CyrusOne owns or operates 53 data centers, primarily in the U.S., that encompass more than 8 million net rentable square feet. It has a few properties in Europe and Asia. CyrusOne has both multi tenant and single-tenant data centers, and it is primarily a wholesale provider, offering large spaces on longer-term leases. The firm has about 1,000 total customers, and cloud service providers and other information technology firms make up about half its total revenue. Its largest customer, Microsoft, accounted for over 20% of 2020 revenue, and its top 10 customers generated about 50%. After cloud providers, companies in the financial services and energy industries contributed the biggest proportions of CyrusOne’s sales.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Philosophy Shares Technical Picks

AT&T Delivers Solid Customer Growth During Q3 as Content and Network Investments Ramp Up

AT&T also benefits from its ownership of deep network infrastructure across much of the U.S. and its ability to provide a range of telecom services, particularly among enterprise customers. The plan to extend fiber to 3 million homes and businesses annually through at least 2025 builds on this position and should allow it to serve those locations directly and enhance wireless coverage in the surrounding areas. 

AT&T is also positioned to benefit as Dish builds out a wireless network as the firms recently signed a 10-year wholesale agreement that generates revenue for AT&T and gives it access to Dish spectrum. AT&T shareholders will own 71% of the new Warner Bros. Discovery. Warner remains a media powerhouse in its own right, with a deep content library and the ability to reach audiences across a wide variety of platforms. The firm’s direct-to-consumer plans around HBO Max are gaining momentum, which should nicely augment and eventually supplant traditional distribution channels like cable TV. Adding Discovery’s non-scripted prowess and international presence should give the new firm wider options to craft service offerings. 

Wireless customer additions were impressively strong

AT&T’s third quarter earnings displayed several of the same themes as the last few quarters: solid momentum in the wireless business, continued growth at HBO Max, and steady gains in consumer broadband, set amid financial complexity as management deconstructs the firm’s former strategy. AT&T added 928,000 net postpaid phone customers, by far its strongest quarter of the past decade, leaving its base nearly 5% bigger than a year ago. Prepaid net customer growth (351,000) was also the strongest since 2018. Average revenue per postpaid phone customer declined 0.6% year over year as the amortization of phone discounts hits this metric.

HBO Max added 1.9 million net new customers, a sharp slowdown versus past three quarters. With several European launches coming, Warner should easily hit its target of 70 million-73 million global Max customers by the end of the year. As a result, the WarnerMedia EBITDA margin was stable at 26%. On a cash basis, however, content investment has ramped up sharply during 2021, with cash spending year to date increasing more than $4 billion versus the first three quarters of 2020. Total revenue declined 5.7% year over year due to the spinoff of the DirecTV television business during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined only 2.2%, however, reflecting strength across AT&T’s major operating segments. Free cash flow has totaled $18.0 billion thus far in 2021, down from $19.8 billion the year before.

Financial Strength

AT&T ended 2020 with net debt of $148 billion, down from $177 billion immediately after the Time Warner acquisition closed in mid-2018. The firm’s purchase of C-band spectrum for $23 billion, excluding around $4 billion of future clearing and relocation costs, pushed the net debt load back up to $168 billion, taking net leverage to 3.2 times EBITDA from 2.7 times. In addition, the firm has issued more than $5 billion of general preferred shares. The WarnerMedia spin-off will take $43 billion of debt with it, taking AT&T’s net debt to about $125 billion, which management expects will shake out in the range of 2.6 times EBITDA. The firm will use the Warner spin-off to adjust its dividend policy, targeting a payout of around 40% of free cash flow, down from more than 60% in 2020, leaving substantial excess cash to reduce leverage or take advantage of opportunities, including share repurchases. In total, management will target a payout of around $8 billion-$9 billion annually, down from nearly $15 billion in 2020.

Bulls Say’s

  • AT&T has pulled together assets no telecom company can match. The firm has direct contact with more than 170 million customers across various products, providing an opportunity to build deeper relationships.
  • Within the wireless business, AT&T holds the scale needed to remain a strong competitor over the long term. With Sprint and T-Mobile merging, industry pricing should be more rational going forward.
  • WarnerMedia holds a broad array of content rights and has a strong reputation with content creators. Shareholders will own 71% of this firm after it merges with Discovery.

Company Profile 

Wireless is AT&T’s largest business, contributing about 40% of revenue. The firm is the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, connecting 66 million postpaid and 17 million prepaid phone customers. WarnerMedia contributes a bit less than 20% of revenue with media assets that include HBO, the Turner cable networks, and the Warner Brothers studios. AT&T plans to spin Warner off and merge it with Discovery to create a new stand-alone media firm. The firm recently sold a 30% stake in its traditional television business, which serves 15 million customers and generates about 17% of sales. This business will be removed from AT&T’s financials going forward. Fixed-line telecom services provided to businesses and consumers account for about 20% of revenue, serving about 15 million broadband customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.