Category: Expert Insights
Expert Insights is a collective gallery of knowledge and information packed articles/ blogs/ podcasts from the Industry Captains as well as the Sr. Research Analysts from our team.
operating supermarkets and discount department stores. Market capitalization is around AUD 50 billion, with annual sales of over AUD 50 billion. The fair value estimate for narrow-moat Woolworths is AUD 24. The board declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 1.08 for the full fiscal year 2021, equating to a payout ratio of 69%.
Woolworths has a narrow economic moat, characterized by an extensive supermarket store network, serviced by an efficient supply chain operation coupled with significant buying power. It operates in the very competitive supermarket and discount department store segments of the retail sector. Intense competition has taken its toll on margins. Management has reset prices lower to drive foot traffic and increase basket sizes. Volume growth is vital for maximizing supply chain efficiencies.
Australian food sales of over AUD 40 billion represented about 15% of total Australian retail sales in fiscal 2021. The percentage increases substantially if sales are strictly comparable.
Financial Strength
Woolworths is in a strong financial position with solid gearing metrics. At the end of fiscal 2021, the balance sheet was conservatively geared and EBITDA covered interest expenses 7 times. After the AUD 2 billion share buyback, Woolworth’s investment-grade credit rating is expected to be the same. Woolworths generates large cash flow with significant negative working capital. Cash flow comfortably finances capital expenditure. The balance sheet is robust, and acquisitions are generally bolt-on and funded with cash or existing debt facilities.
Woolworths is well positioned to withstand cyclically weak consumer spending. Woolworths is a defensive stock, with food retailing generating most of group revenue and profit, a solid balance sheet, and a narrow moat surrounding its economic profits. Woolworths last traded price was 40.99 AUD, whereas its fair value is 24 AUD, which makes it an overvalued stock. As per the analysts, the group’s operating earnings will shrink by about a quarter in fiscal 2022 with the demerger of Endeavour.
Bull Says
- Woolworths’ dominant position in the supermarket sector is entrenched and, coupled with first-class management, suggests that it can maintain leadership in the sector.
- Woolworths’ operating leverage could lead to a rebound in operating margins, driving cash generation that funds expansion and acquisitions while allowing capital-management initiatives.
- The refurbishing of the existing supermarket fleet and rollout of revised store formats, with significantly improved service, convenience and product offerings could increase store productivity and lead to higher sales growth.
Company Profile
Woolworths is Australia’s largest retailer. Operations include supermarkets in Australia and New Zealand, and the Big W discount department stores. The Australian food division constitutes the majority of group EBIT, followed by New Zealand supermarkets, while Big W is a minor contributor.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
in line with the Ampol’s bid. The decline in value is in accord with the terms of a proposed merger and our prior standalone fair value estimates. Merger and acquisition activity continues at a frenetic pace in the Australasian fossil fuel space, coronavirus fragility and carbon concerns marking some as prey. Ampol is proposing an NZD 3.78 per share cash offer for Z Energy via scheme of arrangement. Australia’s largest refined fuel retailer has been granted a four week-exclusivity period in which to undertake due diligence prior to formalising the offer for its smaller New Zealand counterpart.
The equity issuance may take the form of partial share consideration to Z shareholders. Or Ampol may simply conducting a pro rata entitlement offer to its own shareholders, which would be done following regulatory approval and nearer the date of completion. Ampol may have to sell-down some NZ assets to meet NZ competition guidelines. This could include its Gull network. With Ampol shares falling on the bid news, and Z Energy shares rising but not meeting the bid price, the implication is the market on balance thinks Ampol is paying too much, or at least that the bid won’t succeed. The natural question is how do we reconcile this with our much higher standalone valuation for Z.
Company’s Future Outlook
Despite there being no certainty that discussions will result in a binding agreement, we think the chance of success is high. The latest is apparently the fourth in a series of nonbinding offers from Ampol, including at NZD 3.35, NZD 3.50, and NZD 3.60 along the way. And there is logic to a merger– Ampol and Z have very similar business models. Z Energy’s board wouldn’t have opened the books if the chance of a deal proceeding was low. At NZD 3.78 Ampol will be getting Z Energy at a material 33% discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value.
Our formal recommendation for Z shareholders is don’t accept, based solely upon the offer’s material discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value. However, we suspect that advice is likely to prove academic. Z shares rose just over 14% on the day to NZD 3.48, though still 8% below the proposed bid level. They have moved just into 4-star territory from 3-star prior. Z Energy shares have been in the doldrums for over two years given intense retail fuel competition in New Zealand, more recently exacerbated by COVID-19 disruption.
The shares have fallen from a peak of NZD 8.65 and have only recently show signs of life from NZD 2.56 lows. Ampol’s most recent offer price represents a 24% premium to the last NZD 3.04 close. We suspect there is Z Energy shareholder fatigue that might help Ampol’s offer along. However, if Ampol’s bid were to fall over, our stand-alone Z Energy fair value estimate is unchanged at NZD 5.60.
Company Profile
Z Energy was born of the purchase of Shell New Zealand’s downstream operations by Infratil and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund in 2010. It has since transitioned to New Zealand’s largest stand-alone retailer of refined petroleum products and meets close to half of the nation’s transport fuel requirements, serving both retail and commercial customers. The principal activities of Z Energy are importing, distributing and selling transport fuel and related products. The business has scale and sells a full range of transport fuels.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Investment Thesis
- Principal Investments have the potential to become a significant contributor to group performance in the medium- to long-term.
- Due to the recent de-rating, MFG no longer trades at a significant premium to its peer group.
- Acquisitions may help to pave growth runways, easing the Company’s fund capacity constraints.
- The average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) remains stable, but fee pressures pose a risk to the downside (which is an industry trend not specific to MFG alone).
- Strategic growth performance, particularly in the global and infrastructure funds.
- Increasing amounts of money are being managed.
- New strategies could significantly increase the addressable market and aid in the maintenance of earnings growth.
Key Risks
- Fund performance has declined.
- The risk of potential fund outflows – both retail and institutional – (loss of a large mandate).
- Acquisitions carry a high level of execution risk.
- Crucial quality man risk exists in the immediate vicinity of Hamish Douglass and key management or investment management personnel.
- New strategies fail to generate significant earnings for the group.
Key Result of FY21
- Adjusted revenue was $699.1 million, largely unchanged from the prior year, with the Funds Management business continuing to perform well (management and service fees increased by 7% to $635.4 million).
- Profit before tax and performance fees in the Funds Management business increased by 10% to $526.6 million, driven by a +9% increase in average FUM to $103.7 billion (total net inflows of $4.5 billion).
- The Board declared a dividend of $1.141 per share (75 percent franked) for the six months ending 30 June 2021, consisting of a final dividend of $1.026 and a quality fee dividend for the year of $0.115 per share, bringing total dividend payouts for the year to $2.112 per share, down -2 percent over pcp, and announced a share buyback plan to allow stockholders to reinvest their dividends at a 1.5 cents rate.
Company Profile
Magellan Financial Group Ltd (MFG) is a specialist funds management business. MFG’s core subsidiary, Magellan Asset Management Ltd, manages ~$53.6bn of funds under management across its global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies for retail, high net worth and institutional investors.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
