Category: Expert Insights
Expert Insights is a collective gallery of knowledge and information packed articles/ blogs/ podcasts from the Industry Captains as well as the Sr. Research Analysts from our team.
Like for many other retailers, we expect an unusual combination of factors distorted Kogan’s recent trading performance. These include relatively volatile sales, heightened supply chain uncertainties and costs, and lockdowns in Australia’s two most populous states. Term retail industry sales growth to be weaker as consumer spending is redirected to entertainment and travel.
Company’s Future Outlook
The headline figure of no-moat Kogan’s trading update of strong gross sales growth sent shares prices up sharply to nearly match our unchanged AUD 11.70 fair value estimate. The 8% growth in gross sales in the core Australian Kogan.com segment in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 was slightly below our expectations. Nevertheless, any sales growth is a solid feat in the quarter versus the September quarter of 2020, when gross sales grew by more than 100% at Kogan.com. However, sales profitability hasn’t fully recovered yet. Despite greater gross sales, underlying EBITDA margins are well below the previous corresponding period, down some 66%.
Discounting to trim Kogan’s remaining overhanging inventories, intensifying competition post COVID-19-boom in consumer electronics, and mix shift of gross sales to Kogan’s marketplace from its higher margin third party brands have weighed on gross profits in the first quarter. The active customer base at Kogan.com grew by 4% relative to the June quarter 2021, but at the group’s New Zealand Mighty Ape business the customer count dropped off slightly, declining by 2% against the prior quarter. Although active customers were lost, Mighty Ape sales still grew by 15% quarter on quarter.
Company Profile
Kogan.com is an Australian pure-play online retailer. The firm primarily caters to value-driven consumers through its private label products, spanning multiple categories including consumer electronics, furniture, and fitness. For brand-conscious consumers, Kogan also offers a wide range of products from well-known third-party brands such as Apple, Samsung, and Google. In addition, Kogan competes in the online marketplace industry, providing a platform and customer base for approved sellers in exchange for a commission. Finally, the firm sells multiple white-labelled products and services including prepaid mobile phone plans, insurance, and travel packages.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Assets under custody or administration grew to $43.3 trillion versus $42.6 billion in the previous quarter and $36.6 in the year-ago period, driven by market appreciation as well as new business wins.
Fee revenue grew 9% from the year-ago period with servicing fees growing 7%. We attribute the bulk of the servicing fee growth to market appreciation with the remainder from net new business partially offset by fee compression. Assets under custody or administration grew 18% to $43.3 trillion with new servicing wins contribution $1.7 trillion, a healthy number in our view. Management fees grew 10% year over year and 4% sequentially. Money market fee waivers continue to be a headwind but appear to be moderating. Charles River Development, which the firm acquired in 2018, saw annualized recurring revenue growth of 12%.
The firm continues to manage expenses well with expenses down 1% sequentially and flat year-over-year excluding notable items and foreign exchange effects. Looking ahead, we think low-single-digit expense growth is more realistic as productivity growth is balanced with the need to invest in its business and some inflationary pressures.
Given the strong business momentum and equity market tailwinds, State Street raised its full-year outlook with just one quarter left. State Street now expects fee revenue to be up 5% for the year with servicing fee growth of 7.5%-8.5%. Net interest income is expected to be in the range of $475 million-$490 million for the fourth quarter, which implies $1.90 billion-$1.91 billion for the full year. The firm’s tax rate is expected to be on the low end of the 17%-19% range.
Company Profile
State Street is a leading provider of financial services, including investment servicing, investment management, and investment research and trading. With approximately $38.8 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $3.5 trillion assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2020, State Street operates globally in more than 100 geographic markets and employs more than 38,000 worldwide
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
