Category: Commodities

A commodity market is a physical or virtual marketplace for buying, selling, and trading raw or primary products. There are currently about 50 major commodity markets worldwide that facilitate trade in approximately 100 primary commodities. commodities can be invested in numerous ways. An investor can purchase stock in corporations whose business relies on commodities prices or purchase mutual funds, index funds, or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have a focus on commodities related companies.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

On-going focus on cost reduction and positioning of the business

Investment Thesis:

  • Currently undertaking a review, with management highlighting on the conference call: “this year it will seek to further optimize the portfolio, reducing gearing and future CapEx, and conduct a review of the capital management framework including returns to shareholders. This will ensure one is in the best position to provide returns for shareholders, reduce debt, invest in growth and invest in the energy transition”.
  • Leveraged to the oil price.
  • High quality assets which offer a number of core assets within its portfolio (no single asset risk).
  • On-going focus on cost reduction and positioning of the business for a lower oil price environment.
  • Strong balance sheet position.
  • High quality management team who are able to operate assets and extract synergistic value from the recent merger with Oil Search.

Key Risks:

  • Supply and demand imbalance in global oil/gas markets.
  • Lower oil / LNG prices.
  • Not meeting cost-out targets (e.g., reducing breakeven oil cash price).
  • Production disruptions (not meeting GLNG ramp up targets).
  • Strategic investors sell down their stake or block any potential M&A activity.

Key Highlights:

  •  Relative to the pcp: Production was up +3% to 92.1mmboe. Sales volume of 107.1mmboe, down -3%.
  • Product sales revenue of US$4.71bn, up +39%.
  • EBITDAX (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, depletion, exploration, evaluation and impairment) of US$2.81bn, up +48%.
  • Record free cash flow of US$1.5bn and underlying profit of US$946m, driven by higher oil and LNG prices vs pcp due to a recovery in global energy demand and supply constraints across the industry due to lower capital investment through the pandemic.
  • STO was able to deliver a free cash flow breakeven of US$21 per barrel in 2021.
  • Reported NPAT of US$658m includes losses on commodity hedging and costs associated with acquisitions and one-off tax adjustments and is significantly higher relative to the pcp due to impairments included in FY20.
  • The Board declared a final dividend of US8.5 cents per share (franked 70%), up +70% relative to the pcp. This equates to 20% of full-year pro forma free cash flow for the merged entity less dividends paid in the first half by both companies and is in-line with STO’s sustainable dividend policy which targets a range of 10% to 30% payout of free cash flow. Management noted STO does not expect to generate franking credits for the next several years.

Company Description:

Santos Limited (STO) explores for and produces natural gas, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas. STO conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration and production activities in Australia, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Vietnam. The company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Con Ed’s Clean Energy Transition Plan Boosts Growth but Requires Regulatory Support

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

To reaffirm the $86 per share fair value estimate for Con Ed after incorporating updates from the company’s annual environmental, social, and governance investor presentation. To reaffirm the no-moat and stable moat trend ratings. Management raised its 10-year capital investment outlook to $72 billion from $68 billion, supporting that Con Ed will continue to find attractive energy transition investments. To reaffirm the $15.7 billion capital investment forecast for 2022-24 and 6% average annual earnings growth estimate, in line with management’s budget. About one third of Con Ed’s investment plan is allocated to helping New York eliminate energy sector carbon emissions by 2040. This transition likely will result in rapid growth at its electric business but shrinking gas and steam demand. Management estimates by 2050 electricity demand on its system could climb 40% while gas demand falls 60% and steam demand falls 20%-40%. Decarbonizing buildings and transportation is the biggest immediate growth opportunity. The expected Con Ed will spend more than $7 billion on building electrification and EV charging by 2030. New York City recently banned gas service in new small buildings in 2024 and new large buildings in 2027. The state plans to ban new gasoline car sales by 2035.

Electric transmission and rate-regulated renewable energy projects could be incremental growth opportunities beyond 2025 but are too uncertain to incorporate now. Con Ed likely would have to win competitive bids and regulators would have to change ratemaking structures for Con Ed to benefit from the $40 billion of estimated capital investment that will be required for New York to reach its 70% renewable energy target by 2030. To think, management made a good capital allocation decision to sell its renewable energy business in October to eliminate near-term equity needs. The outcome of Con Ed’s 2023-25 electric rate review will be a key signal of regulatory support.

Financial Strengths: 

Total debt/EBITDA peaked at over 5 times in 2020, but expect it to decline to around 4 times by 2025. Although this ratio currently is somewhat elevated, I believe it is acceptable due to the favorable New York regulatory framework. The $6.8 billion clean energy business sale effectively pre-finances Con Ed’s utility growth investments, which support the 6% annual earnings growth forecast. This removes the risk that ConEd will have to issue large amounts of equity and debt in potentially volatile markets during the next few years. The clean energy business sale also eliminates the $400 million of annual capital expenditures the expected Con Ed to invest to develop its clean energy pipeline. The estimated ConEd can finance its $15 billion of planned utility investments in 2023-25 without issuing new equity. The expected Con Ed would have to issue around $1.5 billion of equity during the next three years to fund its utility and non-utility growth plan. It issued 10.1 million shares in July 2021.

Bulls Say:

  • Con Ed received a good price for its renewable energy business and now has the capital it needs to execute its three-year utility investment growth plan.
  • Con Ed has increased its dividend for 48 straight years. The expected dividend growth to accelerate from its 3% pace the last few years.
  • New York’s regulatory framework for electricity and natural gas provides for forward-looking rate cases and usage-decoupled customer rates, significantly reducing earnings and cash flow variability.

Company Description:

Con Ed is a holding company for Consolidated Edison of New York, or CECONY, and Orange & Rockland, or O&R. These utilities provide steam, natural gas, and electricity to customers in southeastern New York—including New York City—and small parts of New Jersey. The two utilities will generate nearly all of Con Ed’s earnings once it closes the sale of its clean energy business to RWE. Con Ed’s clean energy business owns the second-largest portfolio of utility-scale solar projects in the U.S. Following the sale, Con Ed’s only non-utility earnings will come from investments in gas and electric transmission.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Enbridge’s 2023 Outlook Is a Modest Negative; Lowering Fair Value Estimates

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

Enbridge’s 2023 outlook was more mixed than anything else. 2023 EBITDA guidance of a midpoint of CAD 16.2 billion is close to the unchanged expectations of CAD 16.3 billion. However, interest expense is expected to increase to CAD 3.9 billion, materially above earlier forecast, and capital spending of CAD 6 billion is CAD 1 billion above the estimates. The higher spending is reducing near-term cash flows and thus caused us to modestly reduce the fair value estimates. The estimated value is now CAD 52 ($38) per share, down from CAD 53 ($39). The narrow moat rating is unchanged. Enbridge also increased the dividend 3% as expected. While Enbridge highlighted plans to buy back stock potentially, one doesn’t expect excess cash flow from the firm until 2026, implying buybacks are likely to increase debt levels. Growth in 2023 across the business is weighted heavily toward liquids pipelines, gas transmission, and gas distribution. The growth should allow Enbridge to come close to meeting its leverage guidance of below 4.75 times in 2023, as the model is about 4.8 times. Enbridge also announced that it is working toward developing a carbon dioxide sequestration hub in Corpus Christi with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, which adds to its energy transition credentials.

Financial Strengths: 

Enbridge carries higher levels of leverage, at levels between 4.5 to 5 times, than most high-quality North American midstream firms, which are typically below 4 times. However, this higher degree of leverage is supported by the protected nature of its earnings stream. Further, it should also decline over the next few years and Enbridge’s core capital spending profile shifts to CAD 3 billion to CAD 4 billion in spending compared with prior years of CAD 6 billion-plus. Notably, Enbridge has outlined plans to spend up to an incremental CAD 2 billion annually on debt reduction or share buybacks. Enbridge’s dividend is prized by both investors and the management team. After averaging 14% annual growth from 2013-20, one only expects growth to be about 3% annually for the foreseeable future. The shift reflects a recognition of the slower growth across Enbridge’s business but also a preference by investors toward generating free cash flow after capital spending and dividends. Enbridge’s outlined capital spending plans already reflect substantial free cash flows available for higher capital returns to shareholders via buybacks or debt reduction with CAD 2 billion earmarked for this effort annually. This profile is markedly better than most U.S. midstream peers, which in many cases are still struggling to balance a large committed dividend or distribution payouts to shareholders alongside reasonable levels of capital spending.

Bulls Say:

  • Enbridge is the liquids-focused version of gas-oriented Williams in terms of an attractive, highly regulated utility like earnings profile.
  • Enbridge offers a highly secure dividend that can increase 3% annually for the foreseeable future.
  • The cancellation of Keystone XL puts Enbridge in a leading position to capture new organic pipeline expansions to serve the unmet need from producers.

Company Description:

Enbridge owns extensive midstream assets that transport hydrocarbons across the U.S. and Canada. Its pipeline network consists of the Canadian Mainline system, regional oil sands pipelines, and natural gas pipelines. The company also owns and operates a regulated natural gas utility and Canada’s largest natural gas distribution company. Finally, the firm has a small renewables portfolio primarily focused on onshore and offshore wind projects.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Mineral Resources Ltd through Lockyer Deep will get a unique opportunity to secure its own energy supply

Investment Thesis

  • Strong competitive position with the company being one of world’s top five lithium producers, Australia’s fifth largest iron ore producer, largest landholder of onshore gas acreage in the Perth and Carnarvon Basins and world’s largest crushing contractor. 
  • Strong and solid fundamentals with robust lithium and iron ore demand and prices to persist.
  • High quality assets operated by a solid management team with appropriate expertise. 
  • Strong track record since 2006 ASX listing with the company growing total assets 50x to $7.8bn (+30% p.a. growth), delivering 21% p.a. ROIC, generating $7.5bn in underlying EBITDA (+25% p.a. growth) and not undertaking any dilutive capital raise. 
  • Strong shareholder returns with the company delivering 31% p.a. total shareholder returns since 2006 including +20% p.a. dividend growth. 
  • Solid balance sheet. 
  • Improved efficiency amid successful restructuring of the company into four operating pillars, Mining Services, Iron Ore, Lithium and Energy, with each operating as a separate business under separate management. 

Key Risks

  • Commodity price volatility. 
  • Deterioration in global iron ore supply & demand equation.
  • Unfavorable movements in AUD/USD.
  • Adverse weather impacting operations and earnings.
  • Lack of exploration success.
  • Metal processing issues due to issues with the metallurgical processing equipment.
  • Production delay or unscheduled site shutdown.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Revenue declined -8% y/y to $3.42bn, with Iron Ore down – 35% y/y as record iron ore exports of 19.2Mt were more than offset by lower realised prices amid sharpest fall in iron ore price in history, Mining Services up +22% y/y driven by record production volumes of 274Mt (up +10% y/y) and strong business momentum with five new contracts awarded and three contracts renewed, and Lithium up +509% y/y driven by higher prices. 
  • Underlying EBITDA declined -46% y/y to $1bn, with earnings negatively impacted in 1H22 by the steep decline in iron ore prices and widening discounts before stabilising in 2H22, however, with record lithium prices, first earnings from conversion of Mt Marion spodumene concentrate into lithium hydroxide and record growth in the Mining Services division, 2H22 performance remained strong. Controllable underlying EBITDA was up +9% y/y (refer to Figure 2)
  •  Operating cash flow declined -79% y/y to $344m, impacted by an increase in working capital relating to the restart of Wodgina, the increase in lithium pricing causing receivables to increase, and first earnings from conversion of the company’s spodumene concentrate into lithium hydroxide. 
  • Capex increased +7% y/y to $800m with 54% being growth capex, 40% sustaining capex and 6% exploration. 

Company Description

Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN), based out of Perth is focused on contractor crushing, mining services, iron ore and lithium operations. The company is the world’s largest crushing contractor with crushing contracts with some of the world’s largest mining companies in iron ore, gold and lithium operations, as well as its own operating assets.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

The Sinclair acquisition furthers HFs push into renewable diesel, adding a production facility and pre-treatment project

Business Strategy & Outlook

After the acquisition of Sinclair Oil, HollyFrontier, now HF Sinclair, is a fully integrated independent company composed of refining, marketing, renewables, specialty lubricants, and midstream businesses. Its refining footprint has grown to seven refineries totaling 678 mbd in total capacity, including the recently acquired Puget Sound refinery. The latter deal extends the company’s footprint to the West Coast, beyond its historical midcontinent and Rockies roots and into a more difficult refining market with less competitive advantages. However, the foothold in the West Coast should help with the growing renewable diesel business given the region’s growing biofuel mandates. The Sinclair acquisition furthers HF’s push into renewable diesel, adding a production facility and pre-treatment project. Combined with HF’s existing projects (two RD units and a pre-treatment unit), it expects to produce 380 million gallons annually once complete in 2022. 

Adding Sinclair’s marketing group of over 300 distributors, 1,300 wholesale brand sites, and 2 billion gallons a year of branded sales adds a stable earnings stream HF previously lacked as a merchant refiner. In addition, it offers the ability to generate RINs whose high costs have put HF at a disadvantage in the recent past. HF had already begun to diversify its earnings when it acquired the Petro-Canada lubricants business, Red Giant Oil, and Sonneborn to diversify its earnings stream. It expects the segment to generate $250 million EBITDA annually while also serving as a platform for future growth. At the same time, HF’s MLP Holly Energy Partners acquired Sinclair’s midstream assets including 1,200 miles of pipelines, eight product terminals with 4.5 mmbbl of storage, and interests in three pipeline joint ventures. The incremental EBITDA of $70 million-$80 million will increase HEP’s annual EBITDA to about $450 million while opening up future organic and external transaction growth opportunities.

Financial Strengths

HF Sinclair’s debt increased amid the difficult market conditions and acquisitions in the last few years. However, with completion of the Sinclair acquisition, net debt was only 16% at the end of the third quarter, including Holly Energy Partners’ debt, among the lowest of its peer group. To fund the Puget Sound acquisition with cash, management suspended the dividend but reinstated it in the first quarter 2022, earlier than expected. The Sinclair acquisition was done with equity. By first-quarter 2023, management planned to have returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, but did so by third-quarter 2022 given the strong market conditions. It has already authorized another $1 billion in repurchases as part of its guidance of an ongoing 50% payout ratio of adjusted net income through dividends and repurchases. Capital spending doubled in 2021 to $1.2 billion primarily driven by planned investments in renewable diesel, with the remainder earmarked for refining and lubricants. Spending should fall in 2022 as renewable diesel projects are completed but increase slightly in 2023. Management has set the minimum cash balance target at $500 million.

Bulls Say

  • HF Sinclair stands to benefit from continued discount of light and heavy mid continent crude. Also, its Navajo refinery is well positioned to capitalize on growing Permian production. 
  • The Sinclair acquisition adds refining assets complementary to HF’s legacy footprint while adding a marketing business that its portfolio lacked, improving competitiveness. 
  • Investments in renewable diesel should deliver free cash flow and high returns while offering diversification from petroleum, reducing carbon intensity, and generating valuable RINs.

Company Description

HF Sinclair is an integrated petroleum refiner that owns and operates seven refineries serving the Rockies, midcontinent, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest, with a total crude oil throughput capacity of 678,000 barrels per day. It is investing to produce 380 million gallons of renewable diesel annually. It holds a marketing business with over 300 distributors and 1,300 wholesale branded sites across 30 states. It also has a 47% ownership stake in Holly Energy Partners, which owns and operates petroleum product pipelines and terminals principally in the southwestern US.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Phillips 66 holds its chemical assets in CPChem as a 5050 joint venture with Chevron

Business Strategy & Outlook

Phillips 66 remains the most diversified independent refiner with greater interests in marketing, chemical, and midstream assets than peers. While the performance of its refining segment will be the primary determinant of earnings in the near term, the midstream segment will increasingly be the value driver over time as Phillips 66 aims to grow its potential midcycle EBITDA by $3 billion to $13 billion by 2025. With an increased interest in DCP midstream, and planned buyout of the remaining public units, Phillips 66 increased its midstream NGL business size and scale which now stretches across the entire value chain from wellhead to market. With this larger platform, management plans to deliver $1.1 billion of its targeted midcycle EBITDA growth. Refining will remain a critical segment as performance is set to improve. Its midcontinent refineries are some of the firm’s best positioned, given their access to discount domestic and Canadian crudes. Its two Gulf Coast refineries benefit from pipelines that provide access to discount light and heavy crude, while the coastal location affords access to valuable export markets. Projects designed to increase utilization and capture rates and reduce costs are expected to improve the segment’s positioning and performance.

Total cost savings across the entire organization, including headcount reduction are expected to deliver $800 million by year-end 2023, plus a $200 million reduction in sustaining capital requirements. Phillips 66’s two California refineries and one East Coast refinery are the least competitive of its U.S. portfolio. As a result, it is converting its San Francisco area refinery to produce 800 million gallons of renewable fuels by 2024, which it expects to deliver $700 million of its EBITDA growth. Phillips 66 holds its chemical assets in CPChem as a 50/50 joint venture with Chevron. Production capacity is primarily concentrated in the United States (80%) and the Middle East, where CPChem can take advantage of low-cost feedstock like ethane. Future growth will come from projects in the Gulf Coast and Qatar toward the end of the decade, with little contribution from this segment toward the 2025 goals.

Financial Strengths

Management has been focused on reducing debt accumulated during 2020. At year-end 2021, it had largely succeeded in bringing debt back down to pre pandemic levels with the net debt/capital ratio falling to 29%, compared with 27% in 2019. It plans to maintain the ratio in the range of 25% to 30%.

With leverage targets achieved, management has revised its shareholder return targets along with its earnings growth guidance. It plans for $10 billion-$12 billion of shareholder distributions by year-end 2024. At its mid-cycle estimate of $10 billion in operating cash flow by 2025, it expects to direct at least 40% to shareholder returns. Capital spending will remain at $2 billion through 2024 but likely increase modestly thereafter given the growth in the business. At this level, management has suggested up to $7 billion could go toward shareholder returns at midcycle operating cash flow levels.

Bulls Say

  • Phillips 66 is expanding its midstream and chemical segments so that refining will eventually represent a minority of total earnings and help mitigate the risk of falling refined product demand.
  • Phillips 66 stands to benefit from higher crude oil prices, which could benefit the NGL fractionation operations in its midstream business.
  • With one of the highest distillates yields among its peers, Phillips 66 is well positioned for the long term, where the growth outlook for distillate is more favorable than gasoline.

Company Description

Phillips 66 is an independent refiner with 12 refineries that have a total crude throughput capacity of 2.0 million barrels per day, or mmb/d, after converting its 255 mb/d Alliance refinery to a terminal. The midstream segment comprises extensive transportation and NGL processing assets. It also includes its DCP Midstream joint venture, which holds 45 natural gas processing facilities, 11 NGL fractionation plants, and a natural gas pipeline system with 58,000 miles of pipeline. Its CPChem chemical joint venture operates facilities in the United States and the Middle East and primarily produces olefins and polyolefins.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

For Beach Energy, priority remains to expand output from existing reserves, mainly in the Perth and Cooper/Eromanga basins

Business Strategy & Outlook

Beach Energy produces oil, gas, and gas liquids from multiple wholly owned projects and joint ventures in the onshore Cooper, Perth, and Eromanga basins, and offshore in the Otway, Bass, and Taranaki basins. Beach merged with Cooper Basin joint-venture partner Drillsearch Energy in March 2016, which increased equity production to about 10 million barrels of oil equivalent. This is now more than doubled to 23 million boe following the purchase of Lattice from Origin Energy in 2018. Lattice’s scale enhancing incorporation, expanding Beach’s footprint across multiple basins and production hubs, resulted in an increase in EBITDA margins to over 70% from pre-Lattice 50% levels. Despite Lattice’s advantages, Beach does not have sufficient resource life beyond 15 years.

Beach’s goal to double production and reserves in five years was achieved via the AUD 1.6 billion acquisition of Lattice, rather than from organic growth. But the priority remains to expand output from existing reserves, mainly in the Perth and Cooper/Eromanga basins. Beach also sees huge potential for unconventional shale gas in the Cooper and elsewhere. The new target is for 34-40 mm boe of production in the next five years. Most recently a final investment decision was taken for the Waitsia Stage 2 expansion project. The Waitsia project has become an inaugural accessor of North West Shelf Project liquefaction capacity of up to 1.5Mtpa to 2029. Beach’s 50% Waitsia Stage 2 gas expansion to 250 TJ per day (100% basis) is equivalent to around 1.6 Mtpa of LNG. Beach’s estimated share of the upfront development capital expenditure is AUD 350-400 million and Waitsia Stage 2 alone could increase Beach’s equity production by 7.5 mmboe or around 27% on current production levels. Also implicit in Beach’s production growth target is improvement in facility reliability, renewed Cooper Basin growth efforts and Otway gas plant production increase by around 35% to around 57 PJ by fiscal 2023 from around 42 PJ in fiscal 2019.

Financial Strengths

Beach typically has a healthy balance sheet and cash flow, though field life on current reserves is only just approaching 15 years. Beach ended the period to June 2022 with USD 120 million in net cash. The strong unleveraged balance sheet remains a key appeal of Beach Energy. A maintenance of an unleveraged balance sheet in fiscal 2023 despite increased development expenditure is expected. Even with anticipated expenditures, including on Waitsia project development, hence an unleveraged balance sheet by as soon as fiscal 2023 is anticipated, all else equal. An unleveraged balance sheet is the appropriate position for a small company in a world of energy supermajors requiring capital reinvestment to maintain life. Despite growth plans for production of 34-40 mmboe in the next five years, Beach targets a near zero net debt position due to strong free cash flows. Cash flow projections are underpinned by strong long-term gas contracts and repricing. The current net cash position is in stark and favorable contrast to mid-fiscal-2018 annualized net debt/EBITDA levels near 2.0.

Bulls Say

  • Beach has healthy cash flow and reasonable field reserve life.
  • Net operating cash flow per share has proved resilient.
  • The effective net cost of reserve additions has been minimized by well-timed asset sales.

Company Description

Beach produces oil, gas, and gas liquids from numerous joint ventures in the onshore Cooper and Eromanga basins. Beach merged with Cooper Basin joint-venture partner Drillsearch Energy Limited in March 2016, which increased equity production to about 10 million barrels of oil equivalent. This is now more than doubled to 23 million barrels of oil equivalent following the successful purchase of Lattice from Origin Energy in 2018. The average field life is 10 years based on forecast production and 313 mmboe of proven and probable reserves. A credit life of nearly 15 years, assuming substantial conversion of 2C contingent resources into reserve category with drilling. Shale gas resources are blue-sky.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Viva is Australia’s second-largest vertically integrated refined transport fuel supplier, delivering over 14.5 billion litres of refined product annually

Business Strategy & Outlook

Viva, along with Ampol, BP and Mobil, is a rare breed of vertically integrated Australian refined fuel supplier. The Australian downstream petroleum industry runs from sourcing, transporting and storing crude oil, refining that crude into marketable products or directly sourcing imported refined product, and then transporting refined products for sale to retail and commercial customers. Refined products are mostly used in the transport sector, including commercial and private motoring, aviation, marine, and other transport demand. The Australian market equates to approximately 60 billion litres of product, with road use the largest segment at over 50%, followed by aviation at 14% and industry at 12%. Coronavirus notwithstanding, volumes in the Australian fuels market grow at close to rates in GDP, with solid increases in diesel and jet fuel consumption offsetting a slow decline in petrol.  There’s a comparatively steady Australian refined fuels demand growth of 1.5% per year.

Viva is Australia’s second-largest vertically integrated refined transport fuel supplier, delivering over 14.5 billion litres of refined product annually or approximately 24% of national requirement. Viva is vertically integrated because it refines, supplies and markets fuel to customers. Few companies refine fuel locally with much of Australia’s refining capacity shut in recent decades, unable to compete with Asian mega-refineries. There are only four refineries remaining including Viva’s Geelong in Victoria. Geelong converts imported and locally sourced crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and lubricants. These are then distributed, along with directly imported products, into the retail channel via supply channels. The Geelong refinery is one of the most complex in the country due to its greater ability to produce higher value products. Against the sanguine outlook for the refined fuels industry, there are a number of concerns. These include the potential for heightened competition, driving lower margins given the entrance of new players. Further, investing in older and far smaller refineries than Asian mega-cousins is a potential money pit.

Financial Strengths

First-half net operating cash flow increased 173% to AUD 678 million, with strong cash generation across the segments though inclusive of favorable inventory drawdown. This supports future investment and dividend payments, with the balance sheet moving to an AUD 324 million net cash position at end-June 2022 versus AUD 95 million net debt at end-December 2021. Viva to retain a relatively ungeared balance sheet. Viva intends to buy Coles Express for AUD 300 million in the first half of 2023. The consideration will be funded entirely out of existing cash reserves and debt facilities. Viva is to retain a modestly leveraged balance sheet even after the acquisition, sub-20% gearing and maximum sub-0.5 net debt/EBITDA, assuming a 65% payout ratio. The strong status is despite returning AUD 680 million in aftertax Viva Energy REIT sale proceeds in full to shareholders in 2020 and making a AUD 100 million capital return in 2021. The solid free cash flows in the foreseeable future, growing to over AUD 350 million by 2025, which should comfortably support Viva’s target dividend payout ratio of between 50% and 70% of underlying distributable NPAT.

Bulls Say

  • Viva boasts significant refined fuel distribution, supplying around 24% of Australia’s national requirement; second only to Ampol.
  • Australia’s fuel demand continues to grow at low single digits as population growth and rising aviation use offset increasing vehicle fuel efficiency gains.
  • While not sufficient to warrant awarding an economic moat, Viva’s pipeline and terminal infrastructure furnish competitive advantages–notably the efficient scale with its jet fuel pipeline supplying Sydney Airport.

Company Description

Viva is Australia’s second-largest vertically integrated refined transport fuel supplier. Viva is the second-most-significant pipeline owner, and at approximately 1,155 locations, Viva supplies the third-largest number of retail sites in Australia behind Ampol at approximately 1,985 and BP at 1,400. Vitol bought Shell’s Australian downstream operations in 2014, and renamed them Viva Energy. Viva subsequently bought Shell’s Australian aviation operations and a 50% investment in Liberty Oil. In 2016, Viva sold (and leased back) a portfolio of its retail sites to Viva Energy REIT and listed Viva Energy REIT on the ASX. It has since sold its entire REIT stake for AUD 734 million.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

TC Energy’s Bruce Power business to be a critical area of investment going forward

Business Strategy & Outlook

TC Energy faces many of the same challenges as Canadian pipeline peer Enbridge but also offers important contrasts. Both firms offer a 5%-7% growth profile and a utility like 95%-98% of earnings that are highly regulated or contracted, with several years of project backlog, despite Enbridge largely focusing on oil assets, while TC’s focus is natural gas. However, any major new pipeline project for either firm will face substantial stakeholder challenges from a legal, regulatory, or community perspective, raising the risks and costs. The most critical differences between Enbridge and TC Energy arise from their approaches to energy transition, though TC Energy has made good progress here in 2022. Canadian carbon emissions taxes are expected to increase to CAD 170 a ton by 2030 from CAD 40 today, meaning it is critical that TC Energy, with its natural gas exposure, follow Enbridge’s approach to rapidly reduce its carbon emission profile and continue to pursue projects like the Alberta Carbon Grid, which will be able to transport more than 20 million tons of carbon dioxide. These taxes potentially increase costs for Canadian pipes compared with U.S. pipes but also make hydrogen a viable alternative to gas-powered electricity generation by 2030 in Canada, presenting an emerging threat. 

TC Energy recently introduced targets to reduce its Scope 1 and 2 intensity by 30% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, which is a start. In addition, Enbridge’s backlog is more diversified across its businesses already, and it already has a more material renewables business, including hydrogen, renewable natural gas, and wind efforts. While the renewables business lacks an economic moat today, it is an important area of investment for TC Energy that it needs to pursue. The renewables investments can compete for capital across the rest of the portfolio, generating reasonable returns on capital, allowing the overall enterprise to adapt to the markets as they evolve. As a result, TC Energy’s Bruce Power business to be a critical area of investment going forward.

Financial Strengths

TC Energy carries significantly higher leverage than the typical U.S. midstream firm, with current debt/EBITDA well over 5 times. Its long-term target is in the high 4s, again materially higher than peers which are generally targeting leverage of 3-4 times. Still, the high degree of leverage is supported by the highly protected nature of its earnings stream. As capital spending declines over the next few years to around CAD 3.7 billion in 2026, TC Energy to currently reach the low 5s, not quite reaching its target. A planned asset sale program of CAD 5 billion-plus is now in place to achieve 4.75 times leverage ratio by 2024, but it is likely that more asset sales will be needed if the leverage ratio is to reach the high 4s. Lower capital spending would move this date forward materially. Beyond the high leverage, TC Energy is also unusual in that it will continue to rely on the capital markets to meet about 20% of its expected capital expenditures over the next few years or potentially asset sales, meaning that some projects on a regular basis will depend on the health of the capital markets. Midstream peers are largely transitioning to generating free cash flow after distributions or dividends, and in some cases, it considered the shift to be permanent. TC Energy has outlined plans to spend about CAD 9.6 billion in 2023, though another CAD 1 billion to allow for additional Coastal GasLink overruns. About CAD 1.5 billion-CAD 2 billion is maintenance spending on its pipelines, and 85% of this is recoverable due to being invested in the rate base. ESG-related opportunities such as using renewable power to power its own operations or seeking carbon capture efforts would be on top of this spending. TC’s dividend growth remains prized by its investors, and 3%-4% growth going forward is easily supportable under the firm’s 60/40 framework.

Bulls Say

  • TC Energy has strong growth opportunities in Mexican natural gas as well as liquefied natural gas. 
  • The company offers virtually identical growth prospects and a protected earnings profile to Enbridge but allows investors to bet more heavily on natural gas. 
  • The Canadian regulatory structure allows for greater recovery of costs due to project cancelations or producers failing compared with the U.S.

Company Description

TC Energy operates natural gas, oil, and power generation assets in Canada and the United States. The firm operates more than 60,000 miles of oil and gas pipelines, more than 650 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage, and about 4,200 megawatts of electric power.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Genesis hedges its gas requirements by holding a 46% stake in New Zealand’s Kupe gas field

Business Strategy & Outlook

Genesis operates a mix of thermal (coal and gas) and hydro generation, with total annual production of approximately 7,000 GWh. The company’s hydro generation provides it with low-cost generation during times when there is sufficient rainfall and/or snowmelt. Conversely hydro generation can fall sharply when inflow to the firm’s lakes recedes because of insufficient rainfall. During such times, production from its thermal power plants can be ramped up to make up for the shortfall in hydro generation. Spot prices can increase dramatically during periods of low rainfall, reflecting the demand-supply mismatch caused because of lower nationwide energy output. Such times tend to favor Genesis as the excess generation is sold at higher prices. Consequently, Genesis’ profitability and margins can increase during periods of low rainfall and high electricity prices. 

Genesis hedges its gas requirements by holding a 46% stake in New Zealand’s Kupe gas field. Under the current contract, Genesis is obligated to purchase the entire natural gas output from Kupe. This provides the firm with a reliable supply of gas to power its thermal plants and also underpins Genesis’ dual-fuel offering to its customer base. Genesis is also entitled to its share of LPG and oil from Kupe. The oil is exported, while LPG is on-sold to its residential and commercial customers. Kupe introduces oil price risk, though hedging helps in the near term. The main concern is that Kupe earnings will end in 10-15 years, depending on the extent to which its life can be extended through new oil and gas discoveries. This is a risk to Genesis’ earnings, cash flow, and dividends over the long term. As transmission lines are upgraded and more renewable energy is developed, Genesis will likely close some of its aging thermal generation units in the medium term.

Financial Strengths

Genesis Energy’s financial leverage increased following recent acquisitions, however, one can be comfortable given expectations for solid earnings growth, long average debt maturity profile and the ongoing dividend reinvestment plan. As of June 2022, gearing (as measured by debt/capital) was 36%, down slightly on last year. Net debt/EBITDA (adjusted for equity credit on subordinated debt and excluding one-off costs) was 2.7 times in fiscal 2022, within management’s target of 2.4-3.0 times. There’s a forecasted unadjusted net debt/EBITDA, which is the better way to judge financial strength, of 2.5 times in the next few years, which is reasonable. Guidance is for capital expenditure of up to NZD 80 million in fiscal 2023. The elevated capital expenditure for a few years before falling back to typical levels of below NZD 70 million per year. Nonetheless, free cash flow should remain strong.

Bulls Say

  • Persistently high wholesale electricity prices are flowing through to customer tariffs, supporting earnings growth.
  • A mix of thermal and hydro generation assets allows Genesis Energy to take advantage of high electricity prices during periods of low rainfall and low hydro storage.
  • The Pole 3 cable, linking the South Island to the North Island, reduces price disparity between the two islands and reduces location cost risk for all generators.

Company Description

Genesis Energy is one of New Zealand’s leading producers of electricity, accounting for more than 15% of the country’s total generation. The firm enjoys a strong retail presence, with the highest retail market share, at over 25%. The company has a mix of renewable and thermal assets, with the latter accounting for about 55%-60% of the firm’s overall production. The company has a 46% interest in the Kupe oil and gas field.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

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