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After failing debt service coverage tests in recent years, Greenway is not allowed to pay distributions to investors

Business Strategy and Outlook

Atlas Arteria is a global toll-road group with, effectively, two assets. By far its most valuable asset is a 31% stake in Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhone. Despite APRR’s dominant motorway network in eastern France, the short concession life, high base capital expenditure requirements and subdued organic growth make it less attractive than some motorways. Nonetheless, lower interest and tax rates should support growth in APRR’s earnings and distributions in the medium term. Longer term distribution growth is likely to be held back by the eventual normalisation of interest rates and, from the mid-2020s, the need to pay off all debt at APRR before handing the motorway concession back to the government in 2035. After the APRR concession ends, Atlas Arteria’s distributions will fall by two thirds to a level supported by the smaller Dulles Greenway. 

APRR is one of the largest tolled motorway groups in Europe. Concessions covering its main network end on Nov. 30, 2035, and on the smaller AREA network on Sept. 30, 2036. These concessions are relatively short compared with those for other listed toll-road operators. When the concessions end, the roads are returned to the government for no consideration and after repaying all debt. The APRR concessions set base toll increases at 70% of the consumer price index, or CPI, excluding tobacco, and set a base level of maintenance and upgrade capital expenditure of about EUR 200 million per year. 

Atlas Arteria’s other main asset is the wholly owned Dulles Greenway in Virginia, a 22-kilometre toll road connecting Leesburg with Washington Dulles International Airport. Along with high debt levels, the main issue for Greenway was falling traffic volumes following the global financial crisis and as competing roads have been upgraded. After failing debt service coverage tests in recent years, Greenway is not allowed to pay distributions to investors. There can be no value attributed to Atlas Arteria’s other assets, which are small and have extremely high financial leverage.

Financial Strength

Atlas Arteria is in sound financial health. Net debt/EBITDA for APRR, including holding company debt, was 3.5 times at December 2021 and it is alleged to be lower to 3.0 in 2022. Thereafter, financial leverage is forecast to fall to relatively conservative levels as EBITDA recovers from coronavirus lockdowns. It is foreseen, margin expansion going forward, underpinned by projected toll increases and traffic volumes, while operating costs are likely to be well-contained. The main debt covenant limit is net debt/EBITDA of 7.0 times. This should prove adequate headroom, unless the coronavirus impact is significantly worse than expected. Interest rates on more than 80% of debt are fixed or hedged for life. We estimate the APRR Group has a weighted average debt maturity of around six years. This fairly long debt maturity profile reduces refinancing risk. Atlas Arteria’s other assets have aggressive financial leverage, but all debt is nonrecourse, which limits risk. The best of Atlas’s remaining assets is Dulles Greenway, which had net debt/EBITDA of 19 times in December 2021. While leverage is very high, it probably won’t prove fatal thanks to the road’s very long term, fixed rate debt, which means the company has no refinancing requirements and no interest-rate risk. Nonetheless it is unable to pay dividends to Atlas until debt service coverage (EBITDA/total debt service) improves. Debt service coverage was 0.85 times in December 2021, well below the 1.25 times threshold required to reinstate dividends. As coverage fell below 1.15 times, the road is barred from paying dividends for a minimum of three years. With poor traffic volumes following coronavirus lockdowns and upgrades to competing roads, Greenway’s debt service coverage is unlikely to improve to the point that it can start paying dividends until at least 2025.

Bulls Say’s

  • It is projected for distributions to investors grow strongly during the next several years as interest and tax rates at APRR fall. 
  • APRR is a good quality asset. Revenue is defensive and earnings have a positive long term outlook. Dulles Greenway adds longer-term value. 
  • Toll roads are in high demand from pension funds and other large investors searching for yield. The two best roads could potentially be sold for high prices.

Company Profile 

Atlas Arteria is a global toll-road investor created out of the reorganisation of Macquarie Infrastructure Group in 2010. The firm’s main asset is a 31.1% stake in Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhone, or APRR. APRR owns concessions to toll more than 2,300 kilometres of motorways in eastern France, most ending late 2035. The firm also wholly owns the Dulles Greenway toll road in the U.S. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Technology Stocks

CrowdStrike Remains Attractive Even as We Lower Our Long Term Profitability Assumptions; FVE to $196

Business Strategy & Outlook

CrowdStrike is a leader in endpoint security, a necessity that aids in protecting devices and networks, and its threat hunting and breach remediation services are topnotch. While nefarious threat actors are continually upping their attack methodology to create zero-day attacks and are using the rise in entities using cloud-based resources to their advantage, CrowdStrike developed a methodology to turn any entities’ weak-point into better protection for all of its clients. CrowdStrike’s cloud-delivered endpoint protection platform continuously ingests data from all of its installed agents to enhance its protection solutions while keeping all users up to date against the latest threats. CrowdStrike’s customer base, revenue, and margins will experience profound growth throughout the 2020s as customers update their endpoint and workload security requirements in a hybrid-cloud world. 

CrowdStrike’s endpoint protection platform melded the needs of next-generation antivirus, threat intelligence, endpoint detection and response, and other features like managed threat hunting into a consolidated management plane. The lightweight agents, installed on physical devices like servers and laptops, or in virtual machines and cloud environments, are continually improving through its cloud database algorithms, becoming more capable as more data is received. CrowdStrike’s solutions establish customer switching costs and its network effect makes changing vendors a challenge as clients rely on having the latest threat protection. Alongside a persistent talent shortage in cybersecurity and firms attempting to manage disparate toolsets for various parts of endpoint security, entities are challenged to stay secure in networking environments without distinct security perimeters. CrowdStrike’s experts supplement these overwhelmed or short-staffed teams, and the firm also offers breach remediation and proactive testing services. CrowdStrike is in the early stages of becoming a market mainstay as businesses and governments rapidly adopt cloud-based endpoint protection platforms.

Financial Strengths

CrowdStrike is a financially sound company that will be able to generate solid free cash flow and expand its margin profile throughout the 2020s. CrowdStrike had its initial public offering in June 2019 and has historically operated at a loss on a GAAP basis. CrowdStrike’s capital deployment efforts are true to a land-and-expand strategy, whereby CrowdStrike initially has elevated sales and marketing expenses to gain a customer cohort before expanding its revenue per customer while lowering its operating costs per customer (on a revenue percentage basis). CrowdStrike can benefit from cross-selling and up-selling tangential products to its existing base and new clients, while also converting breach remediation service clients to be product customers. As of the end of fiscal 2022, CrowdStrike had $2.0 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and $740 million of debt. With a strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation, CrowdStrike is anticipated to pay its obligations on time.

Bulls Say

  • CrowdStrike’s innovative endpoint security solutions, delivered as a platform, are quickly attracting customers as clients want to consolidate their myriad legacy security tools. Its threat remediation services are a powerful tool in landing new subscription clients. 
  • After landing a client, CrowdStrike can gain significant margin leverage via the cross-selling and up-selling of additional security modules. 
  • CrowdStrike’s products become more capable as new clients are added, and its threat intelligence and hunting can become a core part of customer’s cybercrime defense.

Company Description

CrowdStrike Holdings provides cybersecurity products and services aimed at protecting organizations from cyberthreats. It offers cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, and threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, identity protection, and log management. CrowdStrike went public in 2019 and serves customers worldwide.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

Cisco Remains Focused on Recurring Revenue via Software and Services; $54 FVE

Business Strategy & Outlook

The networking equipment behemoth Cisco continues to execute on its strategic focus of increasing recurring revenue via selling software and services to supplement its hardware products. Software and services were more than half of fiscal 2021 revenue, up from 43% in fiscal 2017. Cisco embracing software from hardware disaggregation, and even selling networking chips, can help keep demand for its solutions high although some customers rely on cloud-based resources or generic hardware. Narrow-moat Cisco’s plan is assessed as the correct direction for maintainable growth and believe the firm’s strategic shifts through organic developments and acquisitions, keep Cisco as mainstay in today’s networks. 

The company is the dominant supplier of switches, routers, cybersecurity, and complementary networking products. Cisco’s products are mission critical for network performance, stability, and security. Cisco is proliferating software, analytics, wireless, and security offerings to satisfy nascent trends, and Cisco is considered the only one-stop-shop networking vendor. Cisco is uniquely positioned to interweave complimentary necessities, like networking and security, together to provide comprehensive solutions for clients. Despite Cisco’s commanding position in switches and routers, IT professionals are increasingly shifting computer workloads to the cloud, in turn buying less data center hardware. Alongside changing its product offerings, Cisco is moving product sales toward subscription-based offerings, which is the preferred method of consumption for cloud-based resources. Cisco is rolling this sales model to additional products and it is encouraging that customers look to purchase bundles with analytics and security. Cisco is evolving its portfolio at a more rapid rate to stay ahead of trends in areas such as switching, communications, cybersecurity management, software-defined wide-area networking, and analytics. Cisco is anticipated to continue looking to acquisitions to bolster its capabilities in these areas to offset pressure in maturing market segments.

Financial Strengths 

Cisc is considered a financially healthy company. With a low debt/capital ratio, abundant free cash flow generation, and expected on-time debt payments, there are no fiscal concerns. The company could safely lever back up to fund development projects, acquisitions, and shareholder returns if needed. Cisco has continually exceeded its commitment to return at least 50% of free cash flow, calculated as cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures, to shareholders. Cisco initiated its share repurchase program in 2001 and has increased the authorization over time. Cisco is anticipated to opportunistically look to purchase shares. Cisco has recurrently raised its dividend year over year, and modest annual increases are forecasted. Even after shareholder returns and debt repayments, the company remains financially flexible with plenty of cash to support acquisitions and its large marketing and R&D expenditures. Growing recurring revenue will provide a steadier income stream, and strong operational and free cash flow generation is expected to continue in the future. Cisco is also anticipated to manage its growing war chest with future cash deployments into strategic developments and acquisitions.

Bulls Say

  • Cisco’s one-stop-shop ecosystem, from switches to data analytics, should remain valued as more networking customers migrate to hybrid clouds.
  • Despite the rise of public clouds, Cisco should continue to grow its customer base via hybrid cloud and software offerings. 
  • The expected rapid proliferation of devices to hit networks should drive customer demand for Cisco products. Cisco’s hardware is regarded as needed for access points, routing, and switching while software is crucial for analytics, security, and intent-based networking.

Company Description

Cisco Systems, Inc. is the world’s largest hardware and software supplier within the networking solutions sector. The secure, agile networks business contains switching, routing, and wireless solutions. The hybrid work division has products for collaboration and contact center needs. The end-to-end security group has products spanning a variety of threat prevention necessities. The internet for the future division has routed optical networks, silicon, and optics. Optimized application experiences offer solutions such as full stack observability. Services are Cisco’s technical support and advanced services offerings. In collaboration with Cisco’s initiative on growing software and services, its revenue model is focused on increasing subscriptions and recurring sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

We Are Lowering Long-Term Growth Estimates for Palantir; FVE Down to $16

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Palantir is well suited to help organizations consolidate and harness the power of data. With its leading position in the government sector with the U.S. and its allies and a growing presence with commercial data applications, this narrow-moat company is poised for robust growth and margin expansion as deployment costs are optimized and product acceptance hastens with task-specific modules. Uncovering insights and easy integration of data is a largely untapped market, due to legacy data sets saved in different locations, various data formats, the uptick in cloud-based resources, and the proliferation of the need for real-time access via distributed devices. Palantir established itself by working with the U.S. government intelligence and defense sectors to integrate data into a consolidated dashboard and then drove outcomes by uncovering patterns with artificial intelligence support. Its Gotham software platform is used across various government sectors of the U.S. and its allies.

Palantir sells its Foundry software platform to commercial organizations, targeting large-scale data operations. Holistically combining data has typically involved consulting alongside in-house customized development efforts for enterprises, but Palantir’s commercial offering is attempting to change the industry’s procurement motion. Its software is used in a variety of industries; Palantir’s aim is to be the data operating system for companies and industries. By stitching together various seemingly disparate components of the airline industry, as one example, Palantir has made inroads into becoming a data platform standard for the industry and looks to other industries to achieve similar results. The company rotates its engineers into the field to understand customer and industry issues firsthand to make its platforms more valuable while gaining deployment cost efficiencies. A robust growth trajectory comes from new commercial ventures on top of a strongly expanding government base, and that installation efficiencies and the strategic shift toward a software-as-a-service model will be conducive to margin expansion throughout the 2020s.

Financial Strengths

The Palantir is in a solid financial position that is on a positive trajectory. The company has historically operated at a loss while producing negative operating cash flow; however, these results improve throughout the 2020s. The rapid revenue growth alongside an improving margin profile will help generate bottom-line improvement alongside positive free cash flow. The company’s existing customer base generates the bulk of revenue, which gives high visibility and an opportunity to expand customer margins. Although the model Palantir generates positive free cash flow and being profitable on an adjusted basis, after adding back copious amounts of stock-based compensation, the GAAP profitability may not come until the middle to latter half of the 2020s. The expansion into the commercial market, proliferation across government sectors, and further decreasing the expenses required to initially deploy its software platforms will drive Palantir’s operating profile and cash flow improvements.  As of the end of June 2021, Palantir had no outstanding debt and $2.3 billion of cash and cash equivalents, excluding restricted cash. The company chose to use a direct listing to join the public markets in 2020, so no cash was raised during the IPO process. Although the company had various funding rounds before going public, the direct listing can be viewed as a testament to Palantir’s solid financial footing and being confident of funding new ventures internally. The strategic initiatives to expand its enterprise software subscription business, alongside sticky government deals, could reward investors over the long run.

Bulls Say

  • Palantir could be the answer to the problems that governments and commercial customers face in successfully integrating large-scale, disparate data in a cohesive and coherent manner to gain insight and drive actions. 
  • Palantir has a strong government business and is diversifying into potentially higher-margin commercial markets; it could become the data operating system for companies and industries. 
  • The company has substantial margin expansion opportunities via improvements in deployment costs and by offering commercially available solutions to prospects.

Company Description

Palantir Technologies provides organizations with solutions to manage large disparate data sets in an attempt to gain insight and drive operational outcomes. Founded in 2003, Palantir released its Gotham software platform in 2008, which focuses on the government intelligence and defense sectors. Palantir expanded into various commercial markets with its Foundry software platform in 2016 with the intent of becoming the data operating system for companies and industries. The Denver company had 125 customers as of its initial public offering and roughly splits its revenue between commercial and government customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Is Focused on the Hybrid Cloud but Hasn’t Earned a Moat

Business Strategy & Outlook

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a leading supplier of IT infrastructure products and services. It generates revenue from selling servers, storage, and networking equipment, as well as the associated software. HPE also has financial services arm it uses to provide financing to customers. HPE is committed to make its entire portfolio available as-a-service by 2022, and The HPE is wisely focusing on profitability and shareholder returns. Commoditized industry-standard servers, HPE’s largest segment, is in a competitive market with large brand-name foes and low-margin white-box manufacturers. To combat profitability concerns, HPE pared its sales of servers to hyperscale cloud providers and shifted toward expanding margin-accretive areas like hyperconverged infrastructure, network edge, and hybrid cloud solutions. The HPE should benefit from IT infrastructure upgrades in the short term. However, one cannot expect HPE to gain a long-term competitive advantage over peers that offer similar portfolios or pure-play companies focused on a sole aspect of HPE’s offerings. One cannot think the firm holds an economic moat.

The HPE’s hybrid cloud strategy, which contains Pointnext, GreenLake, and OneSphere. HPE offers the public cloud pay-per-usage model for on-premises and private clouds to stay in tune with favored consumption models. To bolster its cloud strategy, HPE acquired firms with public cloud integration and cloud analytics expertise. The HPE can position itself as a one-stop shop with hardware for on-premises and private clouds while selling software and services to manage and optimize an entire network. While this flexible sales approach, the competitors mimicking the consumption-based model will intensify competition. As data proliferates expeditiously, networks are transforming to process data closer to the end users, or the network edge, for efficiency. HPE’s business outlook may hinge on its concerted network edge focus and its ability to cross-sell hybrid cloud solutions to permeate HPE solutions throughout enterprise networks.

Financial Strengths

After the split from HP Inc. in November 2015, HPE’s free cash flow has been a roller-coaster ride due to large spinoffs and acquisitions. The HPE as a more streamlined firm that can focus on IT infrastructure hardware, software, and cloud-based solutions. The HPE is a financially stable firm that may generate healthy free cash flow as it moves toward focusing on higher margin products paired with software and service sales. HPE’s fiscal 2021 debt/capital ratio was 40% and the deleveraging to occur through the forecast period and for HPE to pay its obligations on schedule with the spread-out nature of the maturities. The company had $13.4 billion in debt at the end fiscal 2021, with $1.4 billion of that being the operating portion of HPE. The majority of HPE’s debt is used by its financial arm, which has committed to maintaining an investment-grade rating. Its debt is largely associated with financing receivables, and management stated that it had less than 0.5% bad losses related to average net receivables. The company finished fiscal 2021 with $4.0 billion in cash and cash equivalents and as per forecast it to utilize its cash to reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Outside of operating expenses, the HPE to continue using its cash to gradually grow its dividend, potentially repurchasing shares opportunistically, and acquiring smaller firms to bolster its hybrid cloud and software capabilities.

Bulls Say

  • HPE may prosper from enterprises requiring cloud management and optimization services, and its payper-usage consumption model could win over customers. 
  • Edge computing, hyperconverged infrastructure, and software-defined networking present rapid growth possibilities. The HPE is wise to dedicate capital to these large market opportunities. 
  • The company’s paring down of hyperscale cloud server sales is smart. Additionally, the HPE is bolting on cloud service and analytics firms since cloud migration should present robust growth opportunities.

Company Description

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a supplier of IT infrastructure products and services. The company operates as six segments. Its compute division primarily sells computer servers and services. The high-performance compute segment includes its Cray supercomputers. Storage arrays are sold out of the storage segment, and the intelligent edge group sells Aruba networking products and services. HPE’s financial services division offers financing and leasing plans for customers. The Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale and has approximately 60,000 employees.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

No-Moat Gap’s Problems Are Undeniable, but Old Navy and Athleta Align With Market Trends

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Gap’s family of brands lacks an intangible asset or cost advantage that would provide an economic moat. The company has experienced years of inconsistent results and has recently suffered major merchandising and supply chain woes. Still, Gap has fair liquidity, and its Old Navy chain as a solid business. According to Euromonitor, Old Navy is the largest individual apparel brand by retail sales in the United States, and, despite ongoing issues, the Gap’s goal of $10 billion in annual sales for the label (up from $9.1 billion in 2021) as achievable in 2026. Old Navy, though, faces considerable competition in the discount apparel space from wide-moat Amazon, other e-commerce, outlet stores, and discounters like narrow-moat Ross Stores. Meanwhile, Old Navy already has more than 1,250 North America stores, so much of its future growth is expected to come from stores in smaller, unproven markets. As there is a wary of the potential of these markets, one cannot view Gap’s stated goal of 2,000 Old Navy stores in North America as reasonable. Rather, one can forecast it will have about 1,500 locations in 10 years. No one can believe Gap’s once-powerful Gap and Banana Republic brands have competitive advantages, either. According to a 2019 presentation, Old Navy was generating about 80% of Gap’s operating profit even before the pandemic. Now, with scores of Gap and Banana Republic stores slated to be closed, the brands are permanently diminished. Moreover, while a necessary move, that downsizing will improve Gap’s overall margins very much. The firm says that it can reach 10% operating margins in about three years, but Gap’s long-term operating margins at just 8%.

Further, one does not think fast-growing Athleta has achieved a competitive advantage. Athleta grew to more than $1.4 billion in sales in 2021 from $249 million in 2012. However, at less than 10% of Gap’s sales, Athleta is not large or old enough to provide a moat for Gap. Moreover, while the brand benefits from a strong “athleisure” trend, it lacks the pricing power of direct competitor narrow-moat Lululemon.

Financial Strengths

One cannot think Gap has any liquidity concerns even though its free cash flow dropped significantly in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 crisis and it suffered an operating loss in 2022’s first quarter. In 2021’s third quarter, the firm issued $1.5 billion in new debt that matures in 2029 and 2031 ($750 million each) at interest rates of 3.625% and 3.875%, respectively, and subsequently paid down $1.9 billion in higher-interest debt. After these transactions, it closed March 2022 with $845 million in cash and investments and $1.8 billion in debt. Given that its earliest significant maturity is now seven years away, one cannot view Gap’s debt as a concern. Under normal circumstances, the firm generates significant cash flow, including more than $700 million in free cash flow to equity in 2019. Gap suspended dividend payments and share repurchases during the crisis but resumed both in 2021. The firm has signaled that it will continue to issue dividends despite recognizing a loss in 2022’s first quarter. The expect it will return around 30% of its earnings to shareholders as dividends over the next decade. Gap has also been a consistent purchaser of its own stock, having reduced its share count by about 47% between 2008 and 2021. As per the forecast average yearly repurchases of about $500 million over the next 10 years. The repurchases as prudent when executed at a discount to the assessment of the firm’s intrinsic value, as has recently been the case. The Gap’s capital expenditures to average 4% of sales over the next 10 years, in line with the 10-year historical average. Gap intends to open Old Navy and Athleta stores and continue to invest in digital capabilities and its supply chain to keep up with competitors.

Bulls Say

  • According to Euromonitor, Old Navy is the largest apparel brand in U.S. It competes in the discount apparel sector, which has been healthier than other areas of apparel retail. 
  • Athleta has established itself in the fast-growing women’s athleisure market, one of the bright spots in North America apparel. The number of Athleta stores will nearly double over the next decade. 
  • Gap’s e-commerce accounted for more than $6.4 billion in sales in 2021, 39% of its total sales. COVID-19 has accelerated e-commerce growth for Gap and others in the apparel space.

Company Description

Gap retails apparel, accessories, and personal-care products under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands. Old Navy generates more than half of Gap’s sales. The firm also operates e-commerce sites, outlet stores, and specialty stores under various Gap names. Gap operates nearly 3,000 stores in North America, Europe, and Asia and franchises about 600 stores in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and other regions. Gap was founded in 1969 and is based in San Francisco.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Mandiant Services and Solutions Expected to Be in Demand Amid Heightened Threat Environment

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Cybersecurity pure-play Mandiant (formerly FireEye) sells subscriptions and services to protect customers from threats and resolve security breaches. Mandiant is considered a pre-eminent provider of professional consulting services for incident response, security assessments and updates, managed security, and training. Its software-as-a-service solutions include continuous security validation, managed defense, threat intelligence and automated defense. It is expected, robust demand for Mandiant’s services and subscriptions due to a persistent cybersecurity talent dearth and cybercriminals continually evolving their threats, causing organizations to seek the assistance of experts. By selling off its products division in October 2021, it is believed that Mandiant is making the prudent decision to focus on its world-class incident response, threat intelligence, and security validation offerings. Tough competition from other leading cybersecurity players’ holistic security platforms and spry best-of-breed upstarts hindered its legacy products’ success. Being independent of its former product division could enhance its technology partner relationships and improve threat intelligence and customer engagements.

It is believed the vast creation of data plus the increased use of software-as-a-service applications and cloud-based ecosystems will continuously drive up the quantity and complexity of cyberthreats. Mandiant’s security experts stay ahead of threat trends via in-depth research. Those insights cause organizations to demand support or potentially outsource their security to Mandiant to manage. With a lack of security talent in the marketplace, It is expected, firms to increase their usage of external threat assessments, security validation, and automated response solutions while looking toward experts, such as Mandiant, when internal teams are overwhelmed.

Financial Strength

Mandiant is in mediocre financial shape, with an improving free cash flow profile and its cash balance outweighing its convertible note obligations. At the end of 2020, FireEye, Inc. (which included both Mandiant plus FireEye products) had $1.3 billion in cash and equivalents and $960 million in total debt made up of convertible notes. Mandiant sold its FireEye products division for $1.2 billion in October 2021, which is expected the sale to help fuel internal investments and potential shareholder returns. The company has never paid, nor has any intention to pay, a dividend. Its share count rose from 142 million shares in 2014 to 229 million in 2020, but a share dilution is expected to temper in the next few years. As part of selling its products division, Mandiant announced a $500 million share repurchase program. Besides the acquisitions of Verodin for $250 million in 2019, iSight Partners for $275 million in 2016, and Mandiant (when the company was FireEye) for over $1 billion in 2013, which were partly funded with cash, most of FireEye’s funds have been used for operating expenses. FireEye has made some small acquisitions, which is presumed will continue. The cash deployment is to remain focused on operating costs, but for the firm to drive operating leverage as it matures

Bulls Say’s

  • With a skills gap in cybersecurity, customers may prefer to outsource security to Mandiant’s managed services. 
  • Mandiant’s security experts provide customers with a unique selling proposition for breach response and security posture assessments, and the expertise could become relied upon by customers. 
  • Heightened threat environments and digital transformations may make organizations uneasy regarding security, driving up demand for Mandiant’s security posture validation.

Company Profile 

Mandiant (formally FireEye,) is a pure-play cybersecurity firm that focuses on incident response, threat intelligence, automated response, and managed security. Mandiant’s security experts can be used on demand or customers can outsource their security to Mandiant. The California-based company sells security solutions worldwide, and sold its FireEye products division in October 2021.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Oracle’s Q4 Beats Expectations but Outlook Doesn’t Surprise; Shares Fairly Valued

Businesswoman pointing at diagram in her hands when explaining marketing trends to her team during online meeting

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Oracle is a best-in-breed provider of on-premises relational database technologies and enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software and is one of the most profitable companies in the software industry. However, growth has been lacking as more customers shift their workloads to the cloud, bypassing Oracle’s solutions. Despite Oracle’s cloud migration efforts, cloud competition will likely provide headwinds for Oracle. In turn, moat rating for Oracle is narrow, coupled with a negative moat trend rating. Oracle’s business is centred around its relational database which stores a treasure trove of data that is the lifeblood of many enterprises. Oracle’s software offerings leverage this database as its backend, while Oracle’s servicing and hardware businesses support these database tasks. Oracle remains a best-of-breed provider of on-premises databases and software, and customers face very high switching costs if they look to migrate elsewhere. However, the company is not being on the forefront of recent software trends, and new and potential customers appear to be looking past Oracle for their database needs. Database preferences are far wider today due to the sheer number of ways to manipulate data, and the different data storage practices this necessitates. In turn, Oracle is losing database market share to new database types that may be better suited to the cloud.

Additionally, the transition to the cloud is prompting enterprises to change software vendors away from all-in-one ERP systems to application specific that are best of breed. In response, Oracle is banking on its second-generation cloud to not only cater to its traditional enterprise workloads, like supporting databases, but also general use workloads. However, Oracle’s cloud as sub-scale to Amazon and others and it is doubted Oracle can close this gap soon. Oracle should still be successful in moving a significant amount of its traditional on-premises workloads to Oracle cloud. However, migrating all of its customers is not such a sure thing, as cloud-first software vendors have been able to take meaningful share from legacy Oracle customers.

Financial Strength

Oracle can be considered to be in healthy financial standing. As of fiscal 2020, Oracle had $43 billion in cash and equivalents versus $72 billion in debt. However, Oracle should generate robust free cash flow in the years ahead to settle these debt obligations over time. Oracle will have the capital to increase its total annual dividends to $1.28 in fiscal 2025 from $0.96 in fiscal 2020, as the company continues to make share repurchases and acquisitions. However, the magnitude of acquisitions will moderate as the company comes off of its buildout of its second-generation cloud product and has stressed their recent preference to build new capabilities in house. In terms of capital expenditures, Oracle will spend an average of $1.6 million per year over the next five years, as the company

Bulls Say’s

  • Oracle’s relational database should be able to post strong growth as customers continue to depend on its quality features, such as data partitioning which brings incomparable load balancing efficiency.
  • Oracle’s autonomous database and IaaS was built with ease of use in mind, which could bring a significant base of first-time Oracle users to the company, strengthening top line results.
  • Oracle’s stake in TikTok Global and cloud services to TikTok’s U.S. operations should add a significant boost to Oracle’s top line and attract more “general use” cloud customers.

Company Profile 

Oracle provides database technology and enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software to enterprises around the world. Founded in 1977, Oracle pioneered the first commercial SQL-based relational database management system. Today, Oracle has 430,000 customers in 175 countries, supported by its base of 136,000 employees.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Palo Alto’s concerted efforts into machine learning, analytics, and automated responses could make its products indispensable within customer networks

Young woman trading stock market by touching.

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Palo Alto Networks established its cybersecurity leadership by its next-generation firewall appliance altering the requirements of this essential piece of networking security. Its portfolio has expanded outside of network security into areas such as cloud security and solutions to help automate security operations. Palo Alto’s nascent threat-prevention solutions will provide robust growth along with a significantly improved margin profile as customers remain locked into its ecosystem. The complexity of an entity’s threat management increases as the quantity of data and traffic being generated off-premises grows. Network security can be attacked from various angles, and that security will remain a top concern for all enterprises and governments, which bodes well for Palo Alto and its peers. Security point solutions were traditionally purchased to combat the latest threats, and IT teams had to manage various vendors’ products simultaneously, which leads us to believe that IT teams are clamouring for security consolidation to manage disparate solutions. Palo Alto has established security platforms, made up of various products needed, for network security, cloud security, and operations. These platforms alleviate toolset management burden and alert fatigue, and Palo Alto gains threat insights from its vast customer base, which in turn improves its threat protection efficacy. It is believed the ability to add technologies via subscriptions in the Palo Alto framework can alleviate complications by providing more holistic security, which can generate sustainable demand.

Palo Alto will continue to outpace its security peers by focusing on providing solutions in areas like cloud security and automation. Palo Alto’s concerted efforts into machine learning, analytics, and automated responses could make its products indispensable within customer networks. Although Palo Alto will remain acquisitive and dedicated to organic innovation, it is believed that significant operating leverage will be gained throughout the coming decade as recurring subscription and support revenue streams flow from its expansive customer base.

Financial Strength

Palo Alto is financially stable and should generate strong cash flow as it expands its operating margin profile. The company has historically operated at a loss (excluding fiscal 2012), and it is expected to turn profitable by fiscal 2023 on a GAAP basis. Large operating expenditures, including an outsize sales and marketing budget, fuelled Palo Alto’s land-and-expand strategy, and the company is to gain operating leverage throughout the 2020s. Palo Alto ended fiscal 2021 with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $3.2 billion in 2023 and 2025 convertible senior notes. The $1.7 billion 2023 notes mature in June 2023 and have a 0.75% fixed interest rate per year paid semi-annually, while the $2.0 billion of notes that mature June 2025 have a 0.375% interest rate paid semi-annually. Palo Alto issued note hedges for both maturity dates to alleviate potential earnings per share dilution. The company announced a $1.0 billion share-repurchase authorization in February 2019, which was increased to $1.7 billion the following year with an expiration at the end of 2021, and has subsequently extended the program. Palo Alto completed its previous $1.0 billion share-repurchase program in the second quarter of fiscal 2019. The company also completed an accelerated share-repurchase program of $1 billion in fiscal 2020 (announced February 2020), in addition to its normal repurchase program. It is expected that Palo Alto will continue to use share buybacks to return capital to shareholders, and will not pursue any dividend payouts. Palo Alto will continue to focus its cash expenditures on operating costs and potential acquisitions that bolster its security platform within the cloud-based security solutions arena.

Bulls Say’s

  • Adding on modules to Palo Alto’s security platform could win greenfield opportunities and increase spending from existing customers. 
  • Palo Alto could showcase great operating margin leverage as it moves from brand creation into a perennial cybersecurity leader. Winning bids should be less costly as the incumbent, and Palo Alto is typically on the short list of potential vendors. 
  • The company is segueing into high-growth areas to supplement its firewall leadership. Analytics and machine learning capabilities could separate Palo Alto’s offerings.

Company Profile 

Palo Alto Networks is a pure-play cybersecurity vendor that sells security appliances, subscriptions, and support into enterprises, government entities, and service providers. The company’s product portfolio includes firewall appliances, virtual firewalls, endpoint protection, cloud security, and cybersecurity analytics. The Santa Clara, California, firm was established in 2005 and sells its products worldwide.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

No-Moat Dick’s Sporting Goods Posted Great Results, but Competitive and Economic Threats Remain

Business Strategy & Outlook

The no-moat Dick’s Sporting Goods lacks an edge as sporting goods are sold through an increasing number of channels. Although its sales have soared during the pandemic, the impact is temporary, as growth in sporting goods retail has generally been minimal due to external competition. According to IBISWorld, sporting goods retail sales experienced average annual growth of just 1.3% in the five years before the pandemic. Dick’s competitors include e-commerce operators (such as wide-moat Amazon), mass retailers (such as wide-moat Walmart), specialty stores (narrow-moat Lululemon, Foot Locker, Bass Pro Shops/Cabela’s), and branded stores and owned e-commerce from major vendors. As an example of the latter, narrow-moat Adidas’ direct-to-consumer business constituted 39% of its 2021 sales, up from 25% in 2015. Further, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated manufacturers’ direct-to-consumer efforts, as evidenced by Foot Locker’s acknowledgement that wide-moat Nike will reduce shipments to the firm. No one can believe Dick’s market position is strong enough to prevent vendors from offering their merchandise in alternate channels. Its compound average yearly sales growth of 3% over the next decade, at the lower end of projected U.S. activewear growth of 3%-5%. Dick’s recent profitability has greatly improved, but one cannot think the gains can hold. The firm recorded a 16.5% operating margin in 2021, but this as anomalous. In 2013, Dick’s forecast its operating margin would increase to 10.5% by 2017 from 9.0% in 2012, but its actual operating margins were only in the midsingle digits in the years before the pandemic. The 2021 operating margin was the peak level and expect its operating margins will trend downward over time due to a lack of pricing power. Ultimately, one cannot think the firm needs such a large store base (about 860 stores) especially as its e-commerce has risen during the pandemic (21% of sales in 2021, up from 16% in 2019). The Dick’s investments in new full-line and specialty stores have failed to attract enough new customers.

Financial Strengths

The Dick’s is in excellent financial shape. To conserve cash while stores were temporarily closed during the pandemic, Dick’s furloughed employees, cut its planned capital expenditures, reduced salaries, and suspended its share repurchases. In April 2020, it shored up its liquidity further by completing a $575 million convertible bond offering at an interest rate of 3.25% (matures in 2025). Then, in early 2022, the firm issued $1.5 billion in bonds, with half carrying a 3.15% interest rate and maturing in 2032 and the other half carrying a 4.1% interest rate and maturing in 2052. After this offering, Dick’s ended April 2022 with $2.25 billion in cash and equivalents, long-term debt of $1.9 billion, and about $1.6 billion in available borrowing capacity under its revolver. The firm may retire the convertible debt when it becomes callable in 2023. The Dick’s will produce significant free cash flow, which it will return to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases after the crisis has passed. The Dick’s will generate $8 billion in free cash flow to equity over the next decade and will use this cash to repurchase about $5.5 billion in stock and issue about $2.6 billion in dividends. Dick’s suspended repurchases during the pandemic, but then spent nearly $1.2 billion on repurchases in 2021, its largest amount in any year by far. Unfortunately, the average price paid was $109 per share, which was possibly inefficient at well above fair value estimates and historical price levels. For comparison, due to the large share price increase, Dick’s consumed about $400 million in cash in buybacks in 2019 but repurchased more shares than it did in 2021. The annual capital expenditures will average about $450 million (3.5% of sales) over the next five years as Dick’s opens a few stores per year, invests in e-commerce, and renovates existing locations.

Bulls Say

  • Dick’s is the largest pure sporting goods chain in the U.S. It has a large loyalty program that is integrated with that of Nike. Dicks has a strong business in high school and youth sports. 
  • Dick’s is replacing hunting with women’s activewear and other apparel in some stores. Popular activewear probably has better margin and growth prospects than hunting. 
  • Dick’s has adapted well to a market that has changed during the pandemic. Its digital sales skyrocketed to about $2.6 billion in sales in 2021 (21% of total), up from about $1.4 billion in 2019 (16% of total).

Company Description

Dick’s Sporting Goods retails athletic apparel, footwear, and equipment for sports. Dick’s operates digital platforms, about 730 stores under its namesake brand (including outlet stores), and about 130 specialty stores under the Golf Galaxy, Public Lands, and Field & Stream names. Dick’s carries private-label merchandise and national brands such as Nike, The North Face, Under Armour, Callaway Golf, and TaylorMade. Based in the Pittsburgh area, Dick’s was founded in 1948 by the father of current executive chairman and controlling shareholder Edward Stack.

(Source: Morningstar)

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