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Dividend Stocks Shares

Xcel Energy Pushing Through Its Regulatory Agenda; Raising Fair Value Estimate

On July 2, Xcel filed a $343 million rate increase request that we think will be one of its most important and hotly debated rate requests ever in Colorado, its largest jurisdiction. The proceedings during the next six months will test whether regulators are willing to raise customer rates to pay for Xcel’s clean energy and safety investments along with supporting Colorado law that requires Xcel to supply 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050.

Rate settlements in Xcel’s

The Colorado outcome could affect Xcel’s five-year, $24 billion investment plan and management’s 5%-7% annual earnings growth target in the near term. That difference accounts for about 15% of Xcel’s rate increase request. Rate settlements in Xcel’s three smallest jurisdictions are in line with our estimates. In New Mexico, Xcel settled for a $62 million rate increase ($88 million request) and 9.35% allowed ROE (10.35% request). In Wisconsin, Xcel settled for a $45 million combined electric and gas rate increase in 2022 and a $21 million combined rate increase in 2023 based on a 9.8% allowed ROE in 2022 and 10% allowed ROE in 2023. In North Dakota, Xcel settled for a $7 million rate increase ($13 million revised request) and 9.5% allowed ROE (10.2% request).

Company Profile
Xcel Energy manages utilities serving 3.7 million electric customers and 2.1 million natural gas customers in eight states. Its utilities are Northern States Power, which serves customers in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Michigan; Public Service Company of Colorado; and Southwestern Public Service Company, which serves customers in Texas and New Mexico. It is one of the largest renewable energy providers in the U.S. with one third of its electricity sales coming from renewable energy.

(Source: Morningstar)
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Technology Stocks

Sonic Has a Record Second Quarter, Joining the Dealer Space.

Modern financier with papers sitting in front of computer monitor with chart and graph of sales rate

We are raising our fair value estimate to $60 from $58. The change is from the time value of money, higher revenue growth based on how 2021 is unfolding, and a 20 basis point increase in our midscale operating margin including floor plan interest to 3%. We made the latter change to reflect our expectation of better overhead cost leveraging long-term due to the chance that inventories will be lower than pre-pandemic levels after the] semiconductor shortage ends, which should enable better pricing power long-term. Sonic is also due to introduce a digital commerce platform in the fourth quarter that will start at the Echo Park used vehicle stores but likely be rolled out companywide over time. This platform could enable further overhead cost efficiencies long-term.

Second-quarter results were in our view strong and we are encouraged to see same-store revenue up 24.9% compared with the second quarter of 2019. The lucrative service business also did well with same-store service gross profit up 6.9% versus second-quarter 2019. We see more upside this year from this nearly 50% gross margin business because the warranty side of it has not rebounded yet from the pandemic while customer pay has; and management said its California stores, which made up 26.4% of 2020 total revenue, have not rebounded as much from the pandemic as the rest of Sonics stores.

Company’s Future Outlook

Echo Park lost $14.4 million in pretax income for the quarter as high auction prices made sourcing inventory more expensive. Management now sees Echo Park annually selling two million vehicles once it is mature sometime in the 2030s. The more noteworthy news though is Sonic’s board is “considering a full range” of alternatives for Echo Park and has hired Lazard and Kirkland & Ellis as advisors, though no deal may occur. We’d prefer to see Echo Park get larger over time before a divestiture so Sonic shareholders could benefit but it is possible that a sale or spin-off, should it occur, could unlock value for Echo Park not currently recognized by the market. The downside, in our view, of divesting Echo Park is once it’s gone from Sonic; Sonic will not have an exciting growth story to talk about beyond its franchise business. We have about $36 billion of Echo Park revenue modeled for 2021-25.

Company Profile

Sonic Automotive is by our estimate the sixth-largest public auto dealership group in the United States by new-vehicle unit sales. The company has 84 franchised stores in 12 states, primarily in metropolitan areas in California, Texas, and the Southeast, plus 25 Echo Park used-vehicle stores. In addition to new- and used-vehicle sales, the company derives revenue from parts and collision repair, finance, insurance, and wholesale auctions. Luxury and import dealerships make up about 88% of new-vehicle revenue, while Honda, BMW, Mercedes, and Toyota constitute about 60% of new-vehicle revenue. BMW is the largest brand at over 24%. 2020’s revenue was $9.8 billion, with Echo Park’s portion totaling $1.4 billion.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IPO Watch

The share price of Vulcan (ASX: VUL) is being closely monitored. Following the spin-off IPO Update

Money bag with the word IPO (Initial public offering; stock market launch) and a calculator. The first public sale of shares of a joint stock company. Business and finance concept

Vulcan’s non-core, battery metal projects will be taken over by it. Kuniko will become a zero-carbon copper, nickel, and cobalt producer with properties in Scandinavia as a result of this deal.

The first offering allowed interested individuals to purchase one of 12.5 million Kuniko shares for 20 cents each. A 1:4 pro rata priority offer allowed Vulcan owners to purchase about 26.93 million Kuniko shares for 20 cents each.

The spin-off was first announced in April by the corporation. The stock price of Vulcan then dropped as a result of the announcement.

Kuniko has raised $7.88 million through its prospectus offerings to fund its operations. Kuniko plans to go public on the ASX on August 23rd.

Vulcan’s stock is now trading currently on 30th July 2021 at $9.08. The Vulcan’s recent ASX performance has been outstanding. Vulcan shares are now worth 222 percent more than they were at the beginning of 2021. They’ve also increased by 1,682 percent over the same period last year.

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd’s current normalized EBIDTA is recorded at (889695), P/E ratio is ($0.08) and EPS is marked at (0.09). And its 1 year change is reported at +2007.53%. Vulcan has a market capitalisation of roughly $969 million at its current share price.

Company Profile

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) was founded by Dr. Frencis Wedin on 2nd May 2018 and it’s listed on the ASX under the ticker KNI. Vulcan Energy Resources Limited is an energy metals exploration firm established in Australia. In Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley, the company is working on a combined geothermal and lithium extraction project. The Company’s zero-carbon lithium extraction method is powered by sustainable geothermal energy and generates renewable energy as a by-product. From its combined geothermal and lithium resource in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley, Vulcan Energy Resources Limited hopes to develop a battery-quality lithium hydroxide chemical product with a net zero carbon footprint. It is established with the intention of exploring and developing battery metals.

 (Source: FactSet)

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Antero Resources Corp

The most material change was to the natural gas liquids pricing, as not only has natural gas liquids pricing increased materially recently, but Antero’s ability to extract wider differentials has improved due to tighter end markets.

The revised guidance now shifts to a midpoint of $0.20 per million cubic feet, or mcf, from an earlier midpoint of $0.15 per mcf.

Antero continues to generate substantial free cash flow in this environment. Net debt fell by over $150 million during the quarter, due in part to free cash flow of $77 million.

Total debt now stands at $2.4 billion, and leverage at a very reasonable 1.7 times. Antero’s expectations regarding being below $2 billion in absolute debt and 1 times leverage in 2022 align with our model, and are reasonable.

Company Profile

Antero Resources, based in Denver, engages in the exploration for and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2020, the company reported proven reserves of 17.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Production averaged approximately 3,578 million cubic feet of equivalent a day in 2020 at a ratio of 33% liquids and 67% natural gas.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

Bulls in the AUD /USD: Sprinting Against the Wind, Aiming for Daily Goals.

Near 0.7445 is the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement line, which will be a test for the bulls.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Despite the weakening news flow, the Australian dollar is trading at its highest level since July 19, testing the 0.74 level.

 The Australian dollar has only retraced around a third of its losses this month. To test the July 6 high at 0.7600, a break above 0.7480 is required. If the RBA makes a dovish flip next week, this will become more difficult.

(Source: FactSet)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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LICs LICs

Whitefield ltd Joins LIC Raisers

Whitefield, which has a $500 million investment portfolio, is anticipated to utilise the funds to Re launch the LIC, which is now only thinly traded due to its size.

Whitefield is managed by stockpicker Angus Gluskie’s Sydney-based White Funds Management. Commonwealth Bank, CSL, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ were its top holdings as of June 30.

On 14th July Morning, Whitefield stock was put on hold. In the year ended June 30, the company’s investment portfolio returned 25.6 percent before fees and taxes.

Company Profile

Our solutions support our clients’ mission critical business operations by providing proprietary and curated data and analytics to help drive informed decisions and improved outcomes. In an ever-increasing digital world, data is found everywhere. Data can describe the past or be of the moment.  Data fuels analytics that can anticipate the future.  And, data is most valuable when it drives action that moves an organization towards its goals.  Leading organizations use data and data-driven platforms to create a competitive edge. Our solutions derive data-driven insights that help clients target, grow, collect, procure and comply–even in changing times.

(Source: Fact Set)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities

Fortescue sets a new record for exports and sets new goals for the future

Fortescue has broken an export record for the second year in a row, having delivered 178.2 million tonnes from Western Australia’s Pilbara region in fiscal 2020. The business stated on Thursday that it expects to have a triple trick of record years in fiscal 2022, with a goal of shipping up to 185 million tonnes.

Fortescue shares rose 2% to a new record high of $26.40 on Thursday morning, owing to the better-than-expected result and forward outlook.

The company’s remarkable operating performance indicates that it has taken advantage of a window of high iron ore prices generated by strong Chinese demand and inadequate supply from major competitors such as Rio Tinto and Vale.

Rio manager Jakob Stausholm admitted on Wednesday night that the team needed to improve as an operator and perform better in the future.

Iron ore benchmark prices hit a fresh high of $US233 per tonne in early May, and the commodity was still fetching $US201.25 per tonne on Wednesday evening, according to price supplier S&P Global Platts.

Fortescue announced last year that it would spend a maximum of $US3.4 billion on growth projects, with a slide presentation from August 2020 implying that growth spending would be closer to $US1 billion in fiscal 2022.

If spending by its clean energy subsidiary Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) is added, the total could reach $US3.8 billion. FFI will invest between $US400 million and $US600 million in the coming year, according to Fortescue.

Aside from increased expansion spending, Fortescue predicted that unit expenses in the coming year might be 11% higher than in fiscal 2021.

(Source: Fact Set)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Despite A Positive Australian Q2 CPI, The Pair Is Off Its Intraday High.

While the weekly bottom near 80.60 may provide immediate support ahead of the monthly low near 79.80, the psychological magnet of 80.00 may act as an additional filter to the south.

It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s weakness beyond 79.80 will need to be confirmed by the yearly low near 79.20 before the AUD/JPY bears are directed to late December 2020 tops near 78.80.

The AUD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 80.98, with a daily change of 0.05 percentages the same day.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

(Source: FactSet)

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

With the latest acquisition, WEC Energy Group’s Renewable Energy Portfolio Continues to Expand

The facility has long-term off take contracts for 100% of energy produced from investment-grade counterparties. The company’s infrastructure investment now comprises eight projects totaling more than 1.5 gig watts of generation.

The transaction is a continuation of WEC Energy’s plan to build out its renewable energy infrastructure portfolio, advantageously using its strong balance sheet to lock in returns higher than its regulated business. Management has targeted 8% unleveraged internal rates of return, which we view as attainable.

We continue to think the infrastructure investments, which have higher returns than in WEC’s regulated business with regulated utility type risks, are a positive for investors. The company has set aside $1.5 billion in its five-year capital investment program for renewable energy investments, nearly doubling the company’s current $2.2 billion portfolio. Capital investments drive our 6.5% earnings growth expectations, the upper end of management’s 5% to 7% guidance range. The company’s total capital investment plan is $16.1 billion over the next five years.

Management has previously increased its allocation to renewable energy infrastructure projects, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the company allocates additional resources to infrastructure investments. The Sapphire Sky Wind Energy investment represents nearly 30% of WEC’s five-year commitment to renewable energy infrastructure.

Company Profile

WEC Energy Group’s electric and gas utility businesses serve electric and gas customers in its Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin service territories. The company also owns a 60% stake in American Transmission Co. WEC’s asset mix is approximately 51% electric generation and distribution, 34% gas distribution, 13% electric transmission, and 2% unregulated renewable generation.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

BioMarin Maintaining FVE in the Quarter 2 as the 2021-22 Launches Approach

despite the headwind from generic Kuvan. BioMarin raised guidance for each of these drugs based on sales in the first half of the year, leading to expected non-GAAP income of $190-$240 million for the year, up from prior guidance of $170-$220 million.

Recent data indicates that Roctavian has continued durability of efficacy through five years, although factor VIII levels continue to decline over time, hinting that the efficacy of BioMarin’s gene therapy will not last a lifetime. Despite this, we think there is still a place for Roctavian, especially considering its significant lead over other gene therapy programs as well as the likely positive reception from patients.

Company’s Future Outlook

Two drug candidates continue to drive our expectation for significant increases to revenue growth beginning in 2022. BioMarin expects European approval of Voxzogo (vosoritide for achodroplasia) in the third quarter and Roctavian (hemophilia a gene therapy) in the first half of 2022. In the U.S., we expect Voxzogo to gain approval by its PDUFA date in November 2021, and Roctavian should be filed with the FDA in the second quarter of 2022, once two-year data from the phase 3 studies is available in early 2022.

In addition, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review also determined that a potential price tag of $2.5 million would be cost effective based on three years of efficacy data, which gives us confidence in our blended global price tag of roughly $1.2 million per patient.

Company Profile

BioMarin’s focus is on rare-disease therapies. Genzyme (now part of Sanofi) markets Aldurazyme through its joint venture with BioMarin, and BioMarin markets Naglazyme, Vimizim, and Brineura independently. BioMarin also markets Kuvan and Palynziq to treat the rare metabolic disorder PKU (in addition to long-standing U.S. rights, BioMarin has reacquired international rights for Kuvan and Palynziq from Merck KGaA). BioMarin’s Roctavian (hemophilia A gene therapy) and vosoritide (treatment for achondroplasia) are poised to potentially launch in the 2021-22 timeframe.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.