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LICs LICs

Australian Foundation Investment Company (ASX: AFI) Reports FY21 Earnings & Maintains Final Dividend

Two young women talking together with a tablet in the living room. They sit spaced apart to prevent the virus.

The portfolio’s dividends and distributions remained basically constant from the pcp, with the revenue fall driven entirely by a decrease in interest income from deposits.

The Company’s pre-tax NTA per share climbed to $7.45 per share at the end of June 2021, before accounting for the final dividend. This represents a 25% increase above the pre-tax NTA as of 30 June 2020.

In keeping with the FY20 final dividend, the Company declared a final fully franked dividend of 14 cents per share. The full-year dividend will be 24 cents per share, fully franked, which is the same as the full-year dividend in FY20.

The dividend paid as on 31st august is expected to be 14 cents. The current P/E is marked at 58.10 and dividend yield at 2.81%

During this time, the Company dabbled in international stocks by investing a modest portion of its capital (0.5 percent of the portfolio) in an i-”-nternational equities portfolio. (

The worldwide portfolio includes of high-quality companies with a significant competitive advantage, good growth prospects, and a diverse range of industries, as determined by the investment team.

Company profile

Australian Foundation Investment Company (ASX: AFI) is Australia’s largest life insurance company, and it has been investing in Australian and New Zealand equities since 1928. The Date of Listing of Australian Foundation Investment Company (ASX: AFI) is 30 Jun 1962. Incorporated in VIC as Were’s Investment Trust Ltd on 13/07/1928; name changed to Australian Foundation Investment Company Ltd on 25/10/1937. Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFIC) is a closed-end investment corporation. The firm focuses in Australian stock investments. The Company’s investment goal is to provide investors with investment returns in the form of steam franked dividends and capital appreciation. 

(Source: FactSet)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Philosophy Small Cap Technical Picks

Groupon (NAS: GRPN) Outperforms Expectations in Q2; EBITDA Outlook Improved Due to One-Time Benefit; FVE Maintain

Groupon provides daily deals (in the form of online vouchers) from local merchants to consumers. Groupon’s online discounts cover a variety of services including restaurants, health, beauty and fitness, and home and garden. Groupon’s average take rate on the purchase and/or usage of the vouchers is between 30% and 35%.

Customers can make one-time voucher purchases without guaranteeing repeat business with either the merchant or Groupon in general. This dynamic has led to lackluster revenue growth and consistently high customer acquisition costs that pressure margins. Groupon’s revenue growth has been decelerating and gross margins have been declining since the company went public in 2011.

Additionally, the firm is implementing a more aggressive customer acquisition strategy that requires higher marketing expenses. Although a restructuring plan is in place for a turnaround, we remain concerned about future revenue growth and gross margin compression, both of which may prevent Groupon from yielding excess returns on capital in the long run.

Financial Strength

Groupon ended 2020 with net cash of $421 million. The firm has $250 million in 3.25% convertible notes, which were issued in April 2016 and are due in April 2022. Groupon also has $200 million in revolver borrowings. Groupon burned $63.6 million in cash from operations in 2020. The company’s very high accrued merchants payable balance (nearly 25% of cost of revenue) has a positive impact on cash from operations. Groupon’s free cash flow to equity/revenue ratio has been negative the past three years, but we project this ratio to hit the teens in 2025 as a result of a return to revenue growth in 2022 and margin expansion throughout our explicit forecast period.

Total revenue declined 33% year over year to $266 million, as 86% growth in local was more than offset by the expected 75% decline in goods. Local revenue reached 71% of the prepandemic 2019 levels. Groupon’s gross profit increased 41% to $194 million, resulting in a 73% gross margin, as the lower-margin goods revenue continued to decline. In addition, unredeemed vouchers (mainly in international markets) added $10 million to gross profits. Operating loss of nearly $2 million was a significant improvement from losses of $72 million last year and $7 million in 2019.

In addition, gross profit per North America active user was 10% above the 2019 level. International customer count declined 37% year over year, but the firm generated 10% more gross profit from each than in 2020. Total gross profit per active user increased year over year (17%) and sequentially (13%). Purchases per active user increased 11% year over year but declined 3% sequentially. The firm expects full-year adjusted EBITDA between $115 million and $125 million (up from previous guidance of $110 million- $120 million). The increase is less than the $10 million benefit in the second quarter as the firm is planning to continue its aggressive marketing during the second half of this year. Groupon maintained its $950 million-$990 million full-year revenue guidance.

Bulls Say

Groupon should maintain its first-mover advantage as it leverages its current relationships with local merchants to provide more attractive offerings for consumers.
As more local businesses become more tech-savvy, they may need less hand-holding from Groupon’s salesforce, which could lead to lower costs for Groupon.

Company Profile

Groupon acts as the middleman between consumers and merchants, offering a variety of products and services at discounts via its online store. It offers consumers daily deals (in the form of online vouchers) from local merchants. Groupon also sells products directly to consumers. It generates revenue from the take rate on the purchase and/or usage of the vouchers (40% of total revenue) and from direct sales (60% of total revenue). More than 65% of Groupon’s revenue comes from North America.

(Source: Morningstar)
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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IPO Watch

Robinhood’s (HOOD) IPO publicly filed its S-1 to register

The company, which will list under the ticker name HOOD, sold 52.4 million shares for $32 billion, somewhat less than expected.

Robinhood is raising money by selling shares to the general public, allowing the company to swiftly raise a substantial sum of money. It is one of the most high-profile IPOs of 2021. 

On March 23, 2021, Robinhood filed a confidential initial public offering (IPO). Robinhood filed an amendment to its S-1 form on July 19, 2021, reporting the sale of 52.4 million shares.

It expects to raise $ 2.3 billion from its initial public offering. It plans to utilize the funds to develop new goods, increase marketing spending, and expand its business. 

Over the course of its eight-year existence, the stock trading app has raised $ 5.6 billion in 23 consecutive investment rounds.

The company has yet to finalize the listing date of Robinhood’s IPO, which will be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker code HOOD.

Company Profile

Robinhood (HOOD) was founded by Stanford graduates Vlad Tenev & Baiju Bhatt in 2013. A broker-dealing company named Robinhood functions similarly to any other financial institution that allows the purchase and sale of securities. The firm is FINRA-regulated, a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, and registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates the financial markets. Robinhood, founded in Silicon Valley in 2013, was the first company to offer a mobile-first stock trading experience. The company’s application is sleek and simple to use, and it has made it easier for regular investors to buy derivatives, allowing them to speculate on future stock price swings. In addition, Robinhood pioneered the zero-fee business strategy in the stock brokerage industry.

(Source: FactSet)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Asset Sales and Plan for Greater Investment by Lumen Technologies Inc’s (NYSE: LUMN) Put Onus on Management to Return to Sales Growth

Lumen’s fiber holdings make it one of the biggest communications infrastructure providers in the U.S., and its extensive network is matched by few other companies. However, technological advances continually improve networking efficiency and enable less costly solutions to store and transport data. Consequently, even in Lumen’s business services segments, which account for over 70% of total revenue, we think revenue is likely to continue declining. Lumen’s business customers will continue to benefit from the ability to use shared, rather than private, networks and technological advancements that require less bandwidth and enable more efficient routing.

Lumen’s intention to sell a substantial portion of its incumbent local exchange carrier, or ILEC, business should relieve the firm of a big chunk of its fastest-declining revenue (voice) and lower-quality consumer Internet revenue. While the divestiture alone should moderate the firm’s sales declines, it will also result in significantly lower cash flow, which will be further diminished because the firm expects to ramp up investment in its remaining business. 

Financial Strength

Lumen Technologies Inc’s (NYSE: LUMN) continued strengthening its financial position in 2020. In 2020, the firm paid down nearly $2 billion in debt and refinanced $13 billion in debt to push out maturities and reduce interest rates. At the end of 2020, the firm had $400 million in cash, $32 billion in debt, and a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.6. Less than $7 billion of the debt now matures before the end of 2024. With the free cash it generates, we project Lumen has the ability to reduce debt materially while also having a substantial amount of cash to return to shareholders and not scrimping on any capital investment needs. It reliably pays about $1 billion in annual. While the firm is set to sacrifice well below 30% of EBITDA between these transactions and the expiration of CAF-II funds the firm has been receiving. Its dividend for the year 2020 is marked at 10.3 % while in 2019 it was 7.6 %.

Bull Says

  • After selling much of its ILEC business, Lumen may be able to return to sales growth over the next few years rather than face perpetual decline.
  • Lumen has further shifted its business away from the declining consumer and toward the enterprise, which leaves it with a better chance for future top-line growth.
  • The explosion in data use, particularly mobile, could make fiber assets much more lucrative than they have historically been, and Lumen’s fiber holdings place it in the top two or three in the U.S.

Company Profile 

Lumen Technologies Inc’s (NYSE: LUMN) is one of the United States’ largest telecommunications carriers serving global enterprises with 450,000 route miles of fiber, including over 35,000 route miles of subsea fiber connecting Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Its merger with Level 3 further shifted the company’s operations toward businesses (over 70% of revenue) and away from its legacy consumer business. Lumen offers businesses a full menu of communications services, providing collocation and data center services, data transportation, and end-user phone and Internet service. On the consumer side, Lumen provides broadband and phone service across 37 states, where it has 4.5 million broadband customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

ViacomCBS Posts In-Line Q2, but Streaming Momentum Clearly Building

Top-line growth of 8% was driven by the rebound in advertising, the return of live sports, and continued streaming growth. The firm’s streaming platforms posted a strong quarter both in terms of new subscribers and monetization. ViacomCBS also announced a distribution deal with Sky to launch Paramount+ in 2022 in its Western European markets.

Global streaming subscribers increased by 6.5 million during the quarter to 42.4 million, and Pluto, a free platform, added 2.8 million monthly active users to end the quarter at 52.3 million. The recent results and the Sky agreement reinforce our view that the long-term guidance of 65-75 million streaming subscribers by 2024 is very conservative. 

While Paramount+ is only available in 25 markets, we expect much wider distribution by 2024, making the high-end target of another 33 million net adds seem very modest.

Streaming revenue exploded, up 98%, as ad revenue bounced back at Pluto and the smaller streaming platforms like Showtime and BET+ continued to grow their subscriber bases. Streaming subscription revenue improved to $481 million, up 82% year over year and subscription average revenue per user increased 4% sequentially.

 On the ad side, streaming revenue jumped by 102% to $502 million as Pluto continues to improve engagement with domestic time watched per MAU up 45% in the quarter. The June launch of Paramount+ Essential, a lower priced ad-supported tier, should help boost advertising growth.

TV Entertainment revenue increased 23% year over year. Broadcast ad revenue was buoyed by the return of the NCAA Final Four and golf tournaments along with the overall rebound in ad demand. 

Affiliate revenue, up 10%, was driven by strong reverse compensation and retransmission fee growth at the CBS broadcast network. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment dropped by 45% to $216 million as the firm continues to invest in Paramount+.

Cable networks revenue grew by 8% versus a year ago to $3.5 billion. Cable ad revenue increased by 24% as the higher pricing in the U.S. and international growth more than offset lower ratings. 

Affiliate revenue was up 9% as the expanded online distribution from services like YouTube TV and rate increases more than offset the ongoing cordcutting trend.

Company Profile

ViacomCBS is the recombination of CBS and Viacom that has created a media conglomerate operating around the world. CBS’ television assets include the CBS television network, 28 local TV stations, and 50% of CW, a joint venture between CBS and Time Warner. The company also owns Showtime and Simon & Schuster. Viacom owns several leading cable network properties, including Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, Comedy Central, VH1, CMT, and Paramount. Viacom has also built several online properties on the strength of these brands. Viacom’s Paramount Pictures produces original motion pictures and owns a library of 2,500 films, including the Mission: Impossible and Transformers series.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MSI) Increases Guidance Following Strong Quarter, Meeting Prior Expectations; $175 FVE

Our $175 fair value estimate for Motorola is unchanged, as the new outlook aligns with our previous above-guidance expectations for fiscal 2022. We’re also pleased to see continued growth for the firm’s software and services segment, and continue to believe a heavier software mix will drive margin expansion for Motorola through 2025.

Motorola is benefiting from looser security budgets as the U.S. economy rebounds from 2020, and think it will see multi-year demand as state and local governments digest funds from U.S. government stimulus during the pandemic. Still, we think of Motorola as a steady grower, and think the market is painting a more rapid sales growth and margin expansion picture than is reasonable. We currently view shares as overvalued, and would recommend waiting for a pullback to invest. Management commented on its acquisition of Open path that occurred after quarter-end. The $297 million acquisition gives Motorola a stronger position in access control, which is quickly becoming a greater portion of its video segment.

Second-quarter revenue grew 22% year over year to $1.97 billion–2% higher than the top end of quarterly guidance– behind broad-based strength. Motorola’s video business posted 66% annual growth, which we think is resulting from strong market share gains against Axon in the body cam market. Non-GAAP operating margin of 24.5% grew 230 basis points year over year and 130 basis points sequentially, mainly behind higher sales volume and a greater mix of video and command center revenue.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is estimate these to continue increasing as part of Motorola’s mix, and think margin expansion should continue. We maintain our forecast for non-GAAP operating margin to expand 500 basis points through 2025. Command center software lagged the firm’s overall growth profile, but we think it’s primed for an inflection point with the full Command Central suite launching during the quarter, which we expect to augment switching costs a customers over time.

Company Profile

Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE: MSI) is a leading provider of communications and analytics, primarily serving public safety departments as well as schools, hospitals, and businesses. The bulk of the firm’s revenue comes from sales of land mobile radios and radio network infrastructure, but the firm also sells surveillance equipment and dispatch software. Seventy-five percent of Motorola’s revenue comes from government agencies, while 25% comes from its commercial customers. Motorola has customers in over 100 countries and in every state in the United States.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Alumina Ltd’s (ASX: AWC) Commodity Price Change

Alumina is effectively a forwarding office for AWAC profits. Its profits stem from its equity share in AWAC, less local head office and interest expenses. While AWAC enjoys a low operating cost position relative to its competitors, the cost curve is relatively flat, and competitive pressures exist via supply from China. Alumina was the result of a demerger of WMC’s aluminum assets in 2003. AWAC has substantial global bauxite reserves and alumina refining operations, many of which are in the lowest quartile of the cost curve.

Key Investment Consideration

We expect aluminum Ltd’s (ASX: AWC) demand to grow considerably in the future, with global consumption benefiting from transport’s electrification. Supply in China that is managed by state-owned enterprises will prove sticky, with little capacity being cut even if aluminums prices decrease considerably. Alumina’s production has declined over the past five years as it closed capacity in a bid to reduce costs. With no major expansions planned, the company will continue to operate in maintenance mode.

Financial strength

At end 2020, AWAC (Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals) had USD 361 million in net cash, marginally improved on 2019’s USD 340 million. And at end June 2021, Alumina had just position of USD 5.7 million in net debt, also marginally improved. Historically, AWAC reinvested heavily in its operations at the expense of dividend growth. We expect the company to remain largely in maintenance mode, with no major projects planned over the foreseeable future. Therefore, AWAC should pay out most if not all of its operating cash flows in the form of a dividend to Alumina Ltd. and Alcoa. This will help to maintain Alumina Ltd’s strong financial health. We expect AWAC to remain unleveraged and Alumina to remain modestly leveraged at worst.

Bull Says

  • Alumina is a beneficiary of continued global economic growth and increased demand for aluminum via electrification of transport.
  • AWAC is a low-cost alumina producer. It has improved its position on the cost curve relative to peers through expansion of low-cost refineries and closure of high cost operations.
  • The amended AWAC agreement ensures that Alumina will be able to maximize value for shareholders and makes it a more attractive acquisition target.

Company Profile

Alumina Ltd. (ASX: AWC) is a forwarding office for Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals’ distributions. Its profit is a 40% equity share of AWAC profit, less head office and interest expenses. Its cash flow consists of AWAC distributions. AWAC investments include substantial global bauxite reserves and alumina refining operations. Declining capital and operating costs and a lack of supply discipline from China are likely to result in competitive pressures, but Alumina’s position in the lowest quartile of the industry cost curve is defensive.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Williams’ Deepwater Whale Project One of Several High-Return Growth Opportunities

 The 2018 consolidation of William Partners strengthened Williams’ financial position and lowered its cost of capital. With nearly half of its earnings and cash flow coming from rate-regulated gas pipelines, Williams increasingly looks more like a utility than an energy company. Williams delivered steady performance through turbulent energy markets the last two years, relying on its largely fee-based, long-term contracted revenue and strategically well-positioned assets.

Most of Williams’ growth investment will be directed toward Transco expansions and projects to reduce carbon emissions. Transco capacity will reach 20 bcf/d by 2023 from 10 bcf/d in 2014 and continue to grow as natural gas demand in the eastern U.S. grows. With more than 100 bcf/d in interconnects and regulatory hurdles for competing projects, Transco faces no major competitive threats.

Williams’ other businesses are demonstrating their favorable competitive positions with steady results through volatile energy markets. The Northeast gathering and processing business has a captive customer base in low-cost producing regions. The Northwest pipeline benefits from steady demand from utilities and supply from producers in the Western U.S. Williams is growing and improving the competitive position of its other assets through upstream partnerships.

Financial Strength

Williams has strengthened its balance sheet and dividend coverage in recent years. Its improved credit profile and long-term, fixed-fee contract structures gives Williams financial flexibility to pursue growth investment opportunities, grow the dividend, keep the balance sheet strong, and possibly repurchase shares starting in 2022. 

Williams has raised its dividend to $1.64 in 2021 from $1.20 in 2017 while strengthening its balance sheet. The 2018 consolidation of Williams Partners and elimination of incentive distribution rights resulted in a shadow dividend cut of about 17% for former Williams Partners unitholders.

The flip side was an improved credit profile, higher dividend coverage, and ability to invest in growth without issuing equity. Williams remains engaged in litigation with Energy Transfer over its $1.5 billion payment due to Energy Transfer for its alleged breach of the merger agreement. Williams is seeking damages from Energy Transfer as well and to date has not reserved anything for the $1.5 billion potential payment.

Bulls Say’s 

  • A large, well-positioned network allows Williams to invest in high-return growth projects with minimal regulatory hurdles.
  • After several years of structural and financial moves, Williams is positioned to maintain steady dividend growth for the foreseeable future.
  • Williams is leveraged to U.S. LNG exports via agreements with LNG terminals as a key supplier of gas.

Company Profile 

Williams is a midstream energy company that owns and operates the large Transco and Northwest pipeline systems and associated natural gas gathering, processing, and storage assets. In August 2018, the firm acquired the remaining 26% ownership of its limited partner, Williams Partners.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Zurich Australian Property Securities Fund

Our Opinion

Our rating is based on the following key drivers:

Experienced Portfolio Managers (PMs)

The Fund is led by Carlos Cocaro and Damien Barrack of Renaissance Property Securities Pty Ltd. The two principals have worked together for over 18 years, specialising in ASX listed property securities and have a combined total of over 45 years of experience in analysing and investing in listed property securities. Whilst one may criticize the size of the investment team, in our view, the size of the team and credentials are appropriate considering the small universe (relative to other investment classes).

Disciplined investment process

The Fund uses a rigorous investment process with the Managers employing an active, value-based investment style, characterised by incorporating bottom-up investment research into individual securities, with a particular focus on analysing and forecasting the present and potential future income generation of each underlying property investment.

Solid absolute performance but relative underperformance

Although past performance is not an indicator for future performance, it is an indicator of whether the Fund’s strategy has worked in the past. Although the Fund has performed well on an absolute basis, the Fund has now underperformed relative to its benchmark by up to 3.5% p.a. (3 years performance numbers) and a marginal -0.65%, since inception; This is surprising considering, the Fund’s active risks is minimised, with low tracking error and the PMs being very benchmark aware. Indeed, with the idea that the Managers are very benchmark aware and the Funds beta close to 1.0, over the longer term, investors are by and large taking a view of the S&P/ASX300 Property Trusts Accumulation Index (rather than whether a passive or active manager is best).

Downside Risks

Deterioration in Australian economy especially the property market (deterioration of property prices and fundamentals).

The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation.

Softening in bond yields negatively impacting pricing.

Key-person risk in Mr. Cocaro and Mr. Barrack.

Our Opinion…

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) Reports Solid Q2 Results and Announces CEO Succession by John Forrester

Fee revenue has fully recovered to beyond prepandemic levels, as the company reported second-quarter fee revenue of $1.6 billion, a 34% increase year over year and a 3% increase from the second quarter of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA also came in strong for the current quarter at $220 million, 26% higher than the second quarter of 2019. 

Adjusted EBITDA margin calculated on a fee-revenue basis was 13.5%, significantly higher than the 10.2% reported in 2020 and 11.1% in 2019. The adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion reflect the impact of strong brokerage activity and permanent cost reduction actions, which management believes amounted to around $30 million in the current quarter and will reach $125 million in annualized permanent cost savings.

The company announced that John Forrester, who is the current global president, will succeed Brett White as the new CEO of the company effective Jan. 1, 2022. White will remain executive chairman after the transition and continue to lead strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and succession planning, alongside Forrester. 

The brokerage segment of the company displayed excellent recovery in the current quarter compared with the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic suppressed business around the world. Capital markets revenue more than doubled in the current quarter on a year-over-year basis and was 17% higher than the second quarter of 2019. Leasing revenue was 67% higher in the current quarter compared with last year, but it remains 9% below 2019 levels.

Management Anticipates Revenue Growth

The valuation and other segment remains a bright spot for the company as fee revenue came in 16% higher in the quarter on a year-over year basis. The property, facility, and project management segment, which has been resilient throughout the pandemic, reported a 7% year-over-year increase in fee revenue. Management anticipates revenue growth in midteens for the full year as brokerage revenue growth is expected to be up more than 30% and the nonbrokerage segment is expected to grow in midsingle digits. Management said it expects adjusted EBITDA margins for the full year to be well above 2020 levels and will approach 2019 levels, which equates to an adjusted EBITDA range of $660 million-$710 million for full-year 2021.

Company Profile 

Cushman & Wakefield is the third largest commercial real estate services firm in the world with a global headquarters in Chicago. The firm provides various real estate-related services to owners, occupiers and investors. These include brokerage services for leasing and capital markets sales, as well as advisory services such valuation, project management, and facilities management.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.