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Palo Alto’s Product Demand Accelerates in Q4 As Next-Gen Security Soars

Male gamer in headphones holds joystick and playing videogame on console or desktop PC, gaming lifestyle, cybersport. Computer games player in his room with neon light, streamer

its next-generation firewall appliance altering the requirements of this essential piece of networking security. The firm’s portfolio has expanded outside of network security into areas such as cloud protection and automated response. The complexity of an entity’s threat management increases as the quantity of data and traffic being generated off-premises grows. Security point solutions were traditionally purchased to combat the latest threats, and IT teams had to manage various vendors’ products simultaneously, which leads us to believe that IT teams are clamoring for security consolidation to manage disparate solutions. Core to Palo Alto’s technology is its security operating platform, which provides centralized security management. Palo Alto’s concerted efforts into machine learning, analytics, and automated responses could make its products indispensable within customer networks.

Financial Strength 

Palo Alto ended fiscal 2021 with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $3.2 billion in 2023 and 2025 convertible senior notes. The $1.7 billion 2023 notes mature in June 2023 and have a 0.75% fixed interest rate per year paid semiannually, while the $2.0 billion of notes that mature June 2025 have a 0.375% interest rate paid semiannually. The company announced a $1.0 billion share-repurchase authorization in February 2019, which was increased to $1.7 billion the following year with an expiration at the end of 2021, and has subsequently extended the program.

Our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Palo Alto Networks to $440 per share from $400 after its fourth quarter earnings bolstered our confidence in its long-term opportunity within the cybersecurity market. Shares are modestly undervalued, in our view, even after jumping more than 10% following the strong results in the fourth quarter. Palo Alto breezed by our lofty expectations, and previous guidance, for the fourth quarter, with 28% year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted earnings of $1.60. Billings grew by 34% year over year, and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, increased by 36% year over year to $5.9 billion. 

Subscriptions and support increased by more than 36% while product revenue accelerated to 11% growth, both year over year. Its core firewall offerings continue to outpace the market, with 26% year-over-year billings growth and software-based versions represented 47% of firewall billings in the quarter. Next-gen security billings increased by 71% year over year, and now represent 33% of total billings, as the demand for cloud security and automation ramps up in the industry. Next-gen ARR increased by 81% year over year to $1.2 billion. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • Adding on modules to Palo Alto’s security platform could win greenfield opportunities and increase spending from existing customers.
  • Palo Alto could showcase great operating margin leverage as it moves from brand creation into a perennial cybersecurity leader. Winning bids should be less costly as the incumbent, and we think Palo Alto is typically on the short list of potential vendors.
  • The company is segueing into high-growth areas to supplement its firewall leadership. Analytics and machine learning capabilities could separate Palo Alto’s offerings.

Company Profile 

Palo Alto Networks is a pure-play cybersecurity vendor that sells security appliances, subscriptions, and support into enterprises, government entities, and service providers. The company’s product portfolio includes firewall appliances, virtual firewalls, endpoint protection, cloud security, and cybersecurity analytics. The Santa Clara, California, firm was established in 2005 and sells its products worldwide.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

SYD’s share price up by 41.5% over the past year

Investment Thesis:

  • Currently share price is supported by recent takeover offers which have been rejected.
  • Earnings affected by the pandemic; Attractive asset with long-dated lease – Sydney International Airport.
  • Long-term growth is anticipated in international and domestic travel.
  • Solid and high growing dividend stream was offered by SYD before Covid, which is expected to repeat post Covid recovery.
  • Development of new projects (expansion of capacity & improvement of passenger experience). 
  • Leveraged due to a falling dollar (cheaper to visit Australia). 
  • Diversification into hotels for earnings.
  • New markets to drive business growth e.g. India, new emerging markets

Key Risks:

  • Bond rates (which is seen as a bond proxy and rising bonds yields would negatively affect SYD’s valuation) 
  • Slowdown in Australian travel and tourism. 
  • Universal calamity which might lead to downsizing of international travel.
  • Disappointment created by growth distribution and its absence.  
  • Disruptions caused due to cost pressure and operations.
  • Less exposure to Australia by International Airlines. 
  • Long-term competition majorly from Western Sydney Airport. 

Key Highlights:

  • SYD’s share price is $7.70 (+41.5% in comparison to past year); however cannot surpass the price which was at the beginning of pandemic i.e. $8.41.
  • Revenue of $341.6m indicated a sharp decline of -33.2%. The decrease in the rate of passengers of SYD was -36.4%.
  • SYD retained a financially healthy balance sheet with $2.9bn of liquidity as at 30 June.
  • EBITDA of $210.8m was down by -29.8%.
  • Revenue of Aeronautical constitutes 36% amounting to $110.82m, declined -36% or -27.0% on an adjusted basis on lower passenger volumes, down -36.4%.
  • Revenue of Retail (28% of the total revenue) amounts to $87.4m (or $27.5m when adjusted for rental abatements and doubtful debts) declined -40.6% (or -73.4% on an adjusted basis). 
  • Revenue of Property and car rental (27% revenue by segment) of $84.6m (or $83.5m when adjusted for rental abatements and doubtful debts), was down -22.3% (or up +1.1% on an adjusted basis).
  • Revenue of Car parking and ground transport consists of 9% amounting to $28.7m (or $27.8m when adjusted for rental abatements and doubtful debts), which was down -24.7%.

Company Profile:

Sydney Airport Holdings is a publicly–listed Australian holding company which owns a 100% interest in Kingsford Smith Airport via Sydney Airport Corporation. The company is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and has its head office located in Sydney, New South Wales. The principal activity of the Company is investment in airport assets. The Company’s investment policy is to invest funds in accordance with the provisions of the governing documents of the individual entities within the Company. The Company consists of Sydney Airport Limited (SAL) and Sydney Airport Trust 1 (SAT1). The Trust Company (Sydney Airport) Limited (TCSAL) is the responsible entity of SAT1.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Ampol in Proposed Merger With Z Energy

Annual refining capacity fell by half to 6.0 billion litres, about one third of company marketed volumes, when Kurnell closed. Kurnell refinery was shut in 2014 because of operational issues and unfavourable demand for the product mix. It was built to produce petrol, but the market has moved increasingly to diesel with advancing engine technology. Strong growth in transport fuels reflects favourable market attributes. Pandemics notwithstanding, volumes in the Australian liquid fuels market grow at close to growth rates in gross domestic product, with solid increases in diesel and jet fuel consumption offsetting a slow decline in petrol.

Ampol’s extensive network and comprehensive product offerings provide some competitive advantage. The closure of refining sees Ampol’s business rest largely on fuel distribution. In this space, it wrestles with expert competition in BP, Shell, and Mobil. Potential long-term threats include substitution of diesel for alternative fuels such as liquid natural gas, or LNG, and electricity. In the case of LNG in particular, Ampol is likely to participate in any shift via its logistics network and filling stations. Ampol maintains a market-leading 35% share of all transport fuels sold. Ampol substantially rests on its competitive supply chain now that Kurnell has been converted into an import terminal.

Financial Strength 

Ampol is proposing an NZD 3.78 per share cash offer for Z Energy via scheme of arrangement. Ampol intends to fund the acquisition in accordance with its existing capital allocation framework, including an adjusted net debt/EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5 times. It says it will use new debt facilities, proceeds from any divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million. Ampol may have to sell-down some NZ assets to meet NZ competition guidelines. This could include its Gull network.Z had NZD 608 million net debt at end March 2021, net debt/EBITDA of 2.67 quite high versus Ampol’s AUD 735 million at end June 2021, but this in the context of a low growth company focused on yield. Ampol’s standalone leverage is conservative at 18.6% and annualised first half net debt/EBITDA is just 0.8.

Our fair value estimate for Ampol by 9% to AUD 31.00. The increase is in accord with the terms of a proposed merger and our prior stand-alone fair value estimates. Merger and acquisition activity continues at a frenetic pace in the Australasian fossil fuel space, coronavirus fragility and carbon concerns marking some as prey. The latest is apparently the fourth in a series of nonbinding offers from Ampol, including at NZD 3.35, NZD 3.50 and NZD 3.60 along the way. And there is logic to a merger– Ampol and Z have very similar business models. 

Z Energy’s board wouldn’t have opened the books if the chance of a deal proceeding was low. At NZD 3.78 Ampol will be getting Z Energy at a material 33% discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value. This accounts for the 9% Ampol fair value uplift. On a stand-alone basis, our AUD 28.50 stand-alone fair value estimate for Ampol is unchanged. Ampol intends to fund the acquisition in accordance with its existing capital allocation framework, including an adjusted net debt/EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5 times. It says it will use new debt facilities, proceeds from any divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million.

Bulls Say’s

  • Group returns on invested capital improved materially with the closure of the high-cost Kurnell refinery and the
  • modernisation of Lytton refinery. Quarantining of refinery losses and redirection of free cash flow to marketing and distribution drove the improvement.
  • Dismantled refining leaves Ampol reliant on third parties for two thirds of its fuel requirement and removes an inbuilt hedge, albeit an unprofitable one in some prior years.
  • Ampol wrestles with formidable competition in BP, Shell, and Mobil in the distribution and retail sector.

Company Profile 

Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron’s until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney’s Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Vipers updated Fair Value Estimate increased to $21

and the announced Swallowtail acquisition, the fair value estimate of the company increased to $21 per unit while maintaining its narrow moat rating. With second-quarter results, Viper boosted its 2021 production guidance by 2% at the midpoint to just over 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, mainly due to higher activity levels from third-party private operators versus public operators such as Diamondback.

After essentially halting acreage acquisitions in May 2020, Viper has returned to the M&A market with a large transaction. The deal is a $500 million cash and stock (55% stock, 45% cash) purchase of 2,302 net royalty acres in the Midland basin from Swallowtail Royalties, a private mineral rights firm where its acreage deals are financed by Blackstone funds. The price on a per acre basis is at over $200,000 per acre, roughly 80% higher than historical pricing and 40% higher than its last significant deal activity in May 2020.

Despite the high per-acre price, Viper has advantages, as 65% of the acres are operated by Diamondback with a net royalty rate of 3.6%. The value of the deal is demonstrated by the fact that Viper was able to offer a clear long-term growth trajectory for its Diamondback acres, substantially reducing uncertainty around future cash flows, but it wasn’t able to do the same for its non-Diamondback acres.

Company’s Future Outlook

The deal is expected to be completed by the early fourth quarter, and expected post-deal leverage will be about 2 times, which is considered reasonable. The Diamondback development plan is essentially minimal production today to 1,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) in 2022 to over 5000 bo/d by 2024. It is expected that this path to generate a solid amount of value for Viper.

Company Profile
Viper Energy Partners was formed by Diamondback Energy in 2014 to own mineral royalty interests in the Permian Basin. It is publicly traded Delaware limited partnership formed by Diamondback to own and acquire mineral and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties primarily in the Permian Basin. Since May 10, 2018, the company has been treated as a corporation for U.S. federal income tax purposes. At the end of 2020, Viper owns 24350 net royalty acres that produced 26551 boe/d. Proved reserves are mostly oil, and at the end of 2019 stand at 99392 mboe.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Inghams delivered a strong result in spite of national lockdowns in Australia and NZ

Investment Thesis 

  • The pricing condition is improving.
  • The largest integrated poultry producer in Australia and New Zealand.
  • Additional asset sales are planned.
  • Project Accelerate has proven to be effective in increasing labor productivity and automation, resulting in increased earnings despite lower revenue.
  • Procurement measures are being executed, and the results are meeting expectations.
  • Investing in Australia and New Zealand plants to boost capacity and capabilities across the board.
  • With a healthy balance sheet, capital management measures are high on the agenda.

Key Risks

  • Re-negotiation of important contracts with significant clients on less favourable terms.
  • Increased feed and electricity costs, which could be passed on to customers through market price hikes, lowering competitiveness.
  • Uncertainty arises from the lack of information on the appointment of a new CEO.
  • In QSRs (Quick Service Restaurants) and supermarkets, there is a risk of customer concentration.
  • Exotic disease outbreaks are a risk, limiting ING’s ability to produce poultry goods.
  • From the parent stock provider, there has been a significant decline in volume and quality.
  • Material disruptions in ING’s intricate and interconnected supply chain.

Key FY21 group results 

Despite the impact of Covid-19, ING delivered solid FY21 results that were in line with management’s recent guidance (EBITDA & NPAT) issued on May-21. In comparison to the previous year, group revenue increased by +4.4 percent (with Core Poultry volumes increasing by +4.2 percent, with volume growth in NZ exceedingly strong at +6.3 percent), underlying EBITDA increased by +9.6 percent, and underlying NPAT increased by +57.4 percent. Coverage expansion in wholesale and recovery in the QSR and food service channels drove top-line growth. Total dividends increased +17.9 percent year on year to 16.5cps, representing a payout ratio of 71 percent after earnings growth (in line with policy targets of 60 – 80 percent of underlying NPAT post AASB 16 adjustments). The balance sheet is in excellent shape, with net debt falling by -23.7 percent to $240.2 million in the last year. Group leverage fell from 1.8x to 1.2x, well within management’s 1.0–2.0x target range.

Company Description  

Inghams Group Ltd (ING) is Australia and New Zealand’s largest integrated poultry producer. The Company produces and sells chicken, turkey and stock feed that are used by the poultry, pig, dairy and equine industries. Over one quarantine facility, over ten feed mills, over 74 breeder farms, over 11 hatcheries, over 225 predominantly contracted broiler farms, over seven primary processing plants, over seven further processing plants, over one protein conversion plant, and over nine distribution centres are among the Company’s operations in Australia and New Zealand. Ingham’s and Waitoa are two of the company’s brands.

Source: (BanayanTree)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Maintaining BioNTech FVEs after Comirnaty Approval

received full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Aug. 23 for individuals age 16 and older. Pfizer and BioNTech fair value estimates are maintained. The mRNA technology that formed the basis of the vaccine provides support to Pfizer’s established wide moat and also contributes to BioNTech’s positive moat trend.

Government contracts for the initial two-dose series and established contracts are more than sufficient to cover any increased demand. The demand for these purchased vaccines could increase with full approval, which could help to end the most recent surge driven by the delta variant. This could encourage some individuals who were uncertain about the long-term safety of the vaccine to get vaccinated. 

In the U.S., roughly 60% of the vaccine-eligible population has been fully vaccinated. President Joe Biden’s target for a return to near normal by July 4 was thwarted by a combination of vaccine hesitancy, waning efficacy of vaccines, and the rise of the more contagious delta variant. Herd immunity could still be achievable, but the delta variant raises the bar; it therefore could depend on new mandates or increased willingness to vaccinate following Pfizer’s Aug. 23 full approval, uptake of third-dose booster shots, and the potential rise of vaccine-resistant variants down the line. 

Company’s Future Outlook

It continues to see sales reaching $35 billion in 2021 and $39 billion in 2022, followed by roughly $2 billion in annual sales beyond 2022 as it is expected post pandemic annual COVID vaccines for only the most vulnerable (infants and seniors). It is expected this approval to give more leverage to public and private organizations wishing to mandate vaccination, including universities and hospitals.

Full approval also makes it easier for doctors to prescribe off-label use of the vaccine, which could provide more flexibility with the timing of booster shots. Most physicians are waiting for a nod from the Centers for Disease Control’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which could come next week, before recommending booster shots beyond immunocompromised individuals.

Company Profile

BioNTech is a Germany-based biotechnology company that focuses on developing cancer therapeutics, including individualized immunotherapy, as well as vaccines for infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The company’s oncology pipeline contains several classes of drugs, including mRNA-based drugs to encode antigens, neoantigens, cytokines, and antibodies; cell therapies; bispecific antibodies; and small-molecule immunomodulators. BioNTech is partnered with several large pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Genmab. Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine) is its first commercialized product.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

ASX performed a mixed FY21 as a result of retail trading

Investment Thesis

  • M&A that adds value or product/service innovation
  • Monopoly position in a number of segments, with an EBIT margin of 70% and ROTE of 30%.
  • A quality management team has been established to assist any new CEO. The team has a detailed awareness of future operational and IT requirements, as well as strong ties to legislators and regulators.
  • With net cash and an AA credit rating, the balance sheet is strong.
  • The ASX stands to profit from rising superannuation and population trends.
  • The ASX could profit from global connectivity’s fundamental expansion.

Key Risks

  • Capex execution runs the risk of falling short of expectations in terms of ROIC.
  • Volume growth is expected to be slow, while profitability are expected to be flat.
  • Competitors’ or a new start-technological up’s and product innovation could jeopardise ASX’s market hegemony.
  • Regulation poses a threat.

FY21 results summary

Operating revenue increased +1.4 percent year on year to $951.5 million, driven by strong growth in Listings& Issuer Services (supported by new listings and increased issuer activity), Equity Post-Trade Services (reflecting higher settlement activity), and Trading Services (underpinned by increased demand for information services), partially offset by declines in Derivatives and OTC Markets as current policy settings reverted. Total expenses increased by +8.4 percent years on year to $310.3 million, in line with management’s guidance of +8-9 percent growth, due to additional costs to support licence to operate and growth initiatives, as well as variable costs associated with issuer activity. EBIT fell -1.7 percent years on year, with margin falling -210 basis points to 67.4 percent. Statutory profit was -3.6 percent lower than pcp. Net interest income fell 44.3 percent year on year to $46.7 million as a result of the RBA’s current policy settings, which resulted in lower interest earnings on ASX’s own capital and a lower investment spread on ASX collateral. Capital expenditure (capex) was $109.8 million, up 36.5 percent year on year, reflecting the expanded CHESS replacement project and ASX’s ongoing commitment to strengthen foundations for a future exchange.

Company Description  

ASX Ltd (ASX) operates Australia’s main stock exchange and equity derivatives market. ASX has four core segments:  (1) Listings and Issuer Services (covers capital raisings, investment products, and a range of services ASX provide to listed companies); (2) Derivatives and OTC Markets (covers OTC Clearing, equity options and Austraclear including the ASX collateral management service); (3) Trading Services (encompasses cash equities trading, information services and technical services); and (4) Equity Post-Trade Services (encompasses the clearing and settlement of the entire Australian cash market).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Analysts estimate increase in Stifel Fair Value

Additionally, an initial need for capital in the recession and then low interest rates and a strong stock market led to high capital-raising activity.

Stifel Financial has a long history of being an active acquirer. With several hundred million dollars of arguably excess capital, the company could make some decent-size acquisitions. The company may see some growth from a renewed commitment to its independent advisor business.

Stifel has been deepening its expertise in certain niche areas lately through acquisitions. The KBW merger improved the company’s presence in financial industry investment banking, and Stifel has made a series of public finance firm acquisitions over the past several years. In wealth management, adding Barclays’ advisors can help the firm move more upmarket. The investment banking and wealth management landscape is undergoing a decent amount of change from regulations, such as those related to capital requirements and fiduciary standards.

Financial Strength:

Stifel’s financial health is fairly good. At the end of 2020, the company had approximately $1.1 billion of corporate debt and over $2 billion of cash on its balance sheet. Its next large debt maturity is $500 million in 2024.The Company’s total leverage is less than 8, which is fair considering the mix of its investment banking and traditional banking operations. At the end of 2020, Stifel was at its disclosed target of 11.9% Tier 1 leverage ratio. Given that its Tier 1 leverage ratio is above management’s previously stated target of 10%, the company would resume more material share repurchases or pursue acquisitions. 

Bulls Say:

Stifel’s string of acquisitions has increased operational scale and expertise. Stifel is an experienced acquirer and integrator. A recession could provide ample acquisition opportunities. Net interest income growth over the previous several years at the company’s bank materially expanded wealth management operating margins, and the increased size of the bank and wealth management business provides diversification with its institutional securities business.

Company Profile:

Stifel Financial is a middle-market-focused investment bank that produces more than 90% of its revenue in the United States. Approximately 60% of the company’s net revenue is derived from its global wealth management division, which supports over 2,000 financial advisors, with the remainder coming from its institutional securities business. Stifel has a history of being an active acquirer of other financial service firms.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

G8 Education Fair Value Cut to AUD 2.00 but Remains Materially Undervalued

Although the result contained several positive aspects, we now expect some of G8’s recent expenses growth to be permanent. This expectation results in a reduction in our long-term profit margin expectations, with our long-term underlying NPAT margin forecast falling to 12% from 14%.

The market reacted negatively to G8’s result, with the share price falling 6% on the day. G8 usually generates most of its revenue in the second half of the year which typically boosts profit margins. However, the company has been unable to increase prices as usual in the middle of this year, due to the pandemic, which will impact margins in the second half. G8’s prices have been unable to keep pace with wages growth over the past couple of years, partly due to lower immigration due to the pandemic. Although management have created strategies to address the scarcity of labour and labour productivity, these solutions have costs too. G8’s earnings are particularly sensitive to wage inflation because wages typically equate to around 60% of revenue and because G8’s margins are relatively small.

G8’s management said that attracting and retaining talent is the greatest challenge facing the sector. In July 2021, G8’s occupancy rate had recovered to just 1 percentage point below levels achieved in July 2019, before the pandemic. However, the coronavirus outbreak and related lockdowns have caused this gap to widen to 2.6 percentage points in August 2021, relative to August 2019. We expect the second half of 2020 will be tough for G8, with lockdowns likely to continue for most of the half. However, we also expect Australian vaccination rates to enter 2022 with 70% to 80% of the population likely vaccinated, paving the way for a permanent reopening of the country.

Although the latest childcare sector support measures are a positive for childcare centre operators, they only add to the complexity of forecasting G8’s near-term earnings. Aside from the complexity caused by the pandemic’s impact on occupancy rates and subsidies, G8’s earnings are also distorted by recent reshuffling of its childcare centre portfolio, re -categorisation of expenses, the ramp-up of new centres, and change to the definitions of key performance indicators, such as occupancy. This complexity may mean the market will remain wary of G8 shares until the expected recovery is evidenced in reported results, likely in late 2022.

Despite our lower fair value, at the current market price of AUD 0.99 per share, we continue to believe G8 is materially undervalued. Although the childcare industry faces turmoil in the near term and wage inflation pressures in the longer term, we still expect G8’s occupancy rates to recover in 2022 as the pandemic subsides. Importantly, G8’s decision to raise equity capital in 2020, and repay all its net debt, means the company is well placed to weather the latest lockdowns and will likely reinstate dividends in 2022. The reinstatement of G8’s dividends will be an important step for Australian tax residents, because they will likely be fully franked. Franked dividends are effectively a return of corporate tax to shareholders and the reinstatement of franked dividends, which we expect in early 2021, may be a catalyst for a rerating of the stock.

Company Profile

G8 Education operates a portfolio of around 480 childcare centres in Australia, implying a market share of around 8%. The company is highly dependent on government subsidies, which comprise around 60% of childcare fees, but we expect subsidies to continue growing with childcare demand. G8 does not own the buildings from which its childcare centres operate, and labour costs comprise around 60% of expenses, with rental costs comprising around 15%.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Newcrest Mining’s Strong Financial Performance For FY21

Investment Thesis 

• The present share price is trading at a more than 10% discount to our equal weighted (DCF, PE-Multiple, EV / EBITDA) valuation of NCM.

• Among gold mining peers in Australia, NCM has one of the lowest cost bases.

• NCM has one of the lowest cost bases among gold mining peers in Australia. The sustained cost outs will lower the All-in Sustaining Cash Cost (AISC), subject to currency fluctuations (AUD).

• Commodity prices (gold and copper) surprise on the upside, owing to geopolitical worries.

• Leveraged to global monetary policy decisions and the USD, which we view appreciating against other currencies, notably the Australian dollar. 

• NCM has organic development options at Lihir, Cadia, and Golpu.

• NCM offers expansion opportunities at Havieron and Red Chris.

• Strong assets with a lengthy reserve life.

• A solid management team with significant mining expertise.

Key Risks

• Further weakening global macroeconomic conditions.

• A decrease in the group’s output profile.

• Reduced free cash flow means the company will fail its dividend projections.

• A worsening in the global supply and demand equilibrium.

• A decline in gold and copper prices.

• Production difficulties, execution risk, delay, or unscheduled mine shutdown.

• Negative fluctuations in the AUD/USD.

FY21 results summary

Actual earnings of $1,164 million climbed +55 percent year on year, owing to higher realised gold (up +17 percent year on year) and copper (up +42 percent year on year) prices, favourable fair value adjustments recognised on copper derivatives, and other factors, NCM’s investment in the Fruta del Norte finance facilities, and record copper production from Cadia, partially offset by lower gold sales volumes due to lower production (down -3.6 percent year on year), increased income tax expense as a result of the Company’s improved profitability, the unfavourable impact on operating costs (including depreciation) from the strengthening of the AUD against the USD, additional costs associated with COVID-19 measures ($70 million), higher treatment, refining, and transshipment costs and higher Price linked costs such as royalties. Record FCF of $1,104m was mainly due to to pcp, which was characterised by a net cash outflow of $1,291m relating to M&A growth investments, compared to a $21m outflow in the current period (FCF before M&A activity was $455m, +68% higher than pcp, with higher operating cash flows only partially offset by increased investment in major capital projects at Cadia, Increased production stripping activity at Lihir and Red Chris, as well as higher sustaining capital at all ongoing operations).

Company Description 

Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM)engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operation, and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrates. It is also involved in the exploration of silver deposits. The company primarily owns and operates mines and projects located in Cadia and Telfer in Australia; Lihir based in Papua New Guinea; Gosowong based in Indonesia; Bonikro based in Cote dIvoire in West Africa.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.