Investment Thesis
- High barriers to entry with unique expertise and assets. 40-year heritage of leadership in science and innovation in ARS and women’s imaging, coupled with the depth of experience from the doctors and clinical team which will continue to underpin MVF’s future growth and maintain treatment success rates.
- Ageing Australian population and increased age of mothers (especially with the trend of more females choosing career over family until their early thirties) will provide favorable demographic tailwinds.
- Improving balance sheet with flexibility to execute expansion strategies. Earnings increasingly become diversified as the Malaysian business gains momentum.
- Potential earnings diversification and growth via international expansion and increased presence in diagnostics.
- Demonstrated capacity to perform well in terms of cost out and earnings growth despite tough conditions (i.e., lower cycle volumes).
- Transparent and detailed disclosures.
Key Risks
- Regulatory risk as changes in government funding may increase patient’s out-ofpocket expenses and thereby volume demand.
- Fluctuations in the availability and size of Medicare rebates may negatively influence the number of IVF cycles administered and overall industry revenue
- The Australian market does not rebound following this period of downturn. Population of males and females with fertility problems decline.
- Loss of key specialists.
- Loss of market share especially to low-cost providers, with one already appearing in Victoria.
- Weakening economic activity resulting in increased unemployment leading to less disposable income to be spent in IVF treatment.
- Execution of international forays into Malaysia goes poorly.
FY21 Result Highlights
- Revenue was up +26.3% to $183.6m underpinned by market share gains and strong industry volumes.
- Adjusted EBITDA was up +37.1% to $47.7m, with margin improving to 26% (from 23.9%) despite a +12% increase in marketing expenditure and patient communication digitisation activities and ~$1.7m of further costs for suspension of Ni-PGT genetic testing program.
- Adjusted NPAT of $23.3m, was up +61.5% and ahead of profit guidance ($21m-$23m). Reported NPAT of $25.5m was up +116.9%.
- MVF Australian FY21 Stimulated Cycles (STIMS) was up +36.6% driven by industry growth of 31.1% and 0.6% market share gains to 21.0%. Management pointed out “in Q1FY21, Monash IVF serviced the pent-up demand/deferred treatment created by the initial COVID-19 related temporary suspension of IVF services. Notwithstanding on-going and sporadic COVID-19 related lockdowns, IVF services have been largely undisrupted and as a result, growth continued throughout the year. Market Share gains were achieved in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory whilst the exceptionally high level of market share in South Australia was maintained above 60%. STIM industry growth of 31.1% supported the strong volume growth across the Group bringing the 5-year annual CAGR to 5.6%”.
- International STIMS was up +25.1% or 208 cycles.
- The positive diagnostics ultrasound performance was driven by obstetrics growth and a shift of activity from public to privately owned clinics. Ultrasound scan volumes were up +12.9% to 92,776 and Non-invasive Pre-natal testing were up +17.8% to 15,877.
- MVF appointed five experienced Fertility Specialists and a Medical Director of Genetics.
- MVF is opening its Sydney CBD flagship clinic and has earmarked further new clinics in the pipeline for FY22.
Company Profile
Monash IVF Group Ltd (MVF) offers assisted reproductive technology services, ultrasound services, gynecological services, in-vitro fertilization services, consultancy services and general clinical services to patients in Australia and Malaysia. MVF comprises 40 clinics and ultrasound practices and employs ~100 doctors and has a network of 650 associated health professionals.
(Source: BanyanTree)
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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.