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SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund: Decent option for A-REIT investments in a competitive market

About The Benchmark

A sector sub-index of the S&P/ASX 200, this index tracks the performance of Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) and mortgage REITs.

Fund Objective

The SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund seeks to closely track, before fees and expenses, the returns of the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index.

Process 

SLF aims to fully replicate the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index. REITs are listed vehicles that own and operate property. REITs are required to pass on the majority of their income to investors to enjoy favourable taxation arrangements, and distributions are not franked. High payout ratios and an absence of franking mean that REITs typically offer a high headline yield relative to other stock market sectors. SLF is by far the longest running, with an FUM of AUD 650 million as at September 2021, which helps it to maintain trading levels far above most rivals. SPDR doesn’t participate in securities lending for Australian ETFs.

Portfolio

With the relatively short list of A-REIT names in the S&P/ASX 200, the portfolio is understandably concentrated. As at September 2021, the index consists of 24 holdings, with the top 10 accounting for over 85% of the total portfolio. The exposure to the largest current holding, Goodman Group, has ballooned significantly over the past five years to 27% from around 11%. Seeing that the index is relatively untouched by any reconstitutions, portfolio turnover is quite low at 5%. However, in case of an eventual entry or exit of the constituents, the concentrated index is susceptible to reconstitution, which may lead to a meaningfully altered portfolio.

Top 10 HoldingsWeight (%)
GOODMAN GROUP27.07
SCENTRE GROUP11.52
DEXUS/AU8.59
MIRVAC GROUP8.17
STOCKLAND7.98
GPT GROUP7.27
CHARTER HALL GROUP5.93
VICINITY CENTRES4.91
SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA2.20
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT2.06

Sector Allocation

Sub-Industry BreakdownWeight (%)
Diversified REITs34.79
Industrial REITs28.49
Retail REITs23.96
Office REITs9.46
Specialized REITs1.90
Residential REITs1.41

People

The Global Equity Beta Solution team that is responsible for managing this ETF has undergone a leadership transition recently. Effective September 2021, John Tucker has been appointed as the new chief investment officer, replacing Lynn Blake, who has taken retirement. Tucker is a State Street veteran who has been in multiple senior leadership roles within GEBS for the past 20 years. The ecosystem and structure of the investment team is well-defined, where research and trading functions are centralised and spread out globally; however, portfolio managers are based locally. Australia-domiciled passive products are managed by a core team of Tucker and four portfolio managers: Alexander King, Lillian Poon, Andrew Howson, and Elda Dong.

Performance

The fund has managed its tracking difference well, matching up to the benchmark after accounting for management fees. SLF has recorded a return of 6.54% since its inception in 2002. As at the close of 2019, the annualised five-year returns for the fund stood at an attractive 10.55%, outperforming the category returns of 9.87%. The rally was mainly driven by the strong returns of Goodman Group in the latter half of the five-year period.

Total Return1 Month3 Month6 Month1 Year3 Year p.a5 Year p.aSince Inception  p.a
Fund (%)0.384.2712.0730.259.578.636.54
Index (%)0.424.3812.3430.879.878.966.78

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Rio Tinto focus to build a strong balance sheet, tightly control investments and return cash to shareholders

Business Strategy and Outlook

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s biggest miners, along with BHP Billiton, Brazil’s Vale, and U.K.-based Anglo American. Most revenue comes from operations located in the relatively safe havens of Australia, North America, and Europe, though the company has operations spanning six continents.

Rio Tinto has a large portfolio of long-lived assets with low operating costs.The invested capital base was inflated by substantial procyclical investment during the height of the China boom, the rot setting in by overpaying for Alcan, and subsequent iron ore expansion; the combination of these factors means midcycle returns are likely to remain below the cost of capital.

The recent focus has been to run a strong balance sheet, tightly control investments, and return cash to shareholders. The company’s major expansion projects are Amrun bauxite, the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine, and the expansion of the Pilbara iron ore system’s capacity from 330 million tonnes in 2019 to 360 million tonnes. Those projects are expected to complete in the next few years. Otherwise, the focus is on incremental expansions through productivity and debottlenecking initiatives. These will be small but capital-efficient and should modestly improve unit costs.

As a commodity producer, Rio Tinto is a price-taker. The lack of pricing power reflects in cyclical commodity prices. Rio Tinto lacks a moat, given that the bloated invested capital base doesn’t permit returns in excess of the cost of capital. The firm’s assets are large, however, and despite being overcapitalised, generally have low operating costs.

Morningstar analyst have lowered the fair value estimate for Rio Tinto to USD 66.00 per ADR from USD 69.00 per ADR previously. The cut mainly reflects lower near-term iron ore price forecasts, with higher copper and aluminium prices prices a partial offset.

Financial Strength

Rio Tinto’s balance sheet is strong with net debt standing of less than USD 2 billion at end 2020. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA for 2021 is very comfortable at 0.1. The strong balance sheet may allow the company to make targeted investments or acquisitions through the downturn, important flexibility. But it appears management is favouring distributions to shareholders. The progressive dividend policy was canned in 2016, providing important flexibility to increase or reduce dividends as free cash flow allows. 

Bulls Say 

  • Rio Tinto is one of the direct beneficiaries of China’s strong appetite for natural resources. 
  • The company’s operations are generally well run, large-scale, low-operating-cost assets. Mine life is generally long, and some assets, such as iron ore, have incremental expansion options. 
  • Capital allocation is has improved following the missteps of the China boom with management generally preferring to return cash to shareholders than to make material expansions or acquisitions.

Company Profile

Rio Tinto searches for and extracts a variety of minerals worldwide, with the heaviest concentrations in North America and Australia. Iron ore is the dominant commodity, with significantly lesser contributions from aluminium, copper, diamonds, gold, and industrial minerals. The 1995 merger of RTZ and CRA, via a dual-listed structure, created the present-day company. The two operate as a single business entity. Shareholders in each company have equivalent economic and voting rights.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

Cochlear reported solid FY21 results, with earnings up by 54%

Investment Thesis:

  • Attractive market dynamics – growing population requiring hearing aids, improving health in EM providing more access to devices such as hearing aids and relatively underpenetrated market
  • There remains a significant, unmet and addressable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants that is expected to continue to underpin the long‐term sustainable growth of COH
  • Market leading positions globally
  • Direct-to-consumer marketing expected to fast track market growth 
  • Best in class R&D program (significant dollar amount) leading to continual development of new products and upgrades to existing suite of products 
  • New product launches driving continued demand in all segments 
  • Attractive exposure to growth in China, India and more recently Japan 
  • Solid balance sheet position
  • Potential benefit from Australian tax incentive 
  • Subject to successful passage of legislation, the patent box tax regime for medical technology and biotechnology should encourage development of innovation in Australia by taxing corporate income derived from patents at a concessional effective corporate tax rate of 17%, with the concession applying from income years starting on or after 1 July 2022 

Key Risks:

  • Product recall
  • Sustained coronavirus outbreak which delays recommencement of hospital operations in China
  • R&D program fails to deliver innovative products 
  • Increase in competitive pressures 
  • Change in government reimbursement policy 
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD
  • Emerging market does not recoup – significant downside to earnings

Key highlights:

  • COH reported strong FY21 results, with earnings (underlying NPAT) up +54% to $237m and within guidance of $225-$245m, despite Covid-19 impacted surgery activity recovering to varied levels across both developed and emerging markets
  • For FY22, it is expected to deliver net profit of $265‐285m, a 12‐20% increase on underlying net profit for FY21, based on a 74 cent AUD/USD
  • Sales revenue is expected to benefit from market growth, with a continuing recovery in surgery rates across many countries more affected by Covid
  • The management will continue their investment in market growth activities
  • Capex is expected to be ~$70‐90m for FY22 and includes around $20m related to a major process transformation and IT systems upgrade, a program that is expected to be a $100‐120m investment over the next four to five years
  • Effective tax rate is expected to decline to ~25% as a result of the introduction of changes to the R&D tax concession by the Australian government, with legislated changes to take effect from 1 July 2021
  • The Board is committed to maintaining the dividend policy which targets a 70% payout of underlying net profit
  • Record sales revenue of $1,493m, was up +10%, or +19% in constant currency (CC), driven by market share gains, market growth and rescheduled surgeries post Covid lockdowns
  • Implant units climbed +15% to 36,456 (developed markets up ~20%; emerging markets up ~10%), compared to FY19, implant units increased +7%
  • The Board declared final dividend of $1.40 which brings full year dividends to $2.55 per share, up +59% and equates payout ratio of 71% of underlying net profit, in line with COH’s 70% target payout
  • COH’s balance sheet position remains strong with net cash of $564.6m at year-end, improving from $457m in FY20

Company Description: 

Cochlear Ltd (COH) researches, develops and markets cochlear implant systems for hearing impaired people. COH’s hearing implant systems include Nucleus and Baha and are sold globally. COH has direct operations in 20 countries and 2,800 employees.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Nufarm’s Fiscal 2022 Cash Conversion and working capital moves favourable

Business Strategy and Outlook

Nufarm is a major producer of crop-protection products including herbicides, fungicides, and pesticides, selling into all major world markets. The company is leveraged to growing demand for crops for biofuels, and food from rapidly industrialising markets such as China and India. Growth should come from astute brand and offshore business investments and from a customer-service-focused strategy. However, the global crop-protection markets are competitive and earnings are cyclical, given a reliance on seasonal conditions. Sumitomo Chemical’s 16% investment in Nufarm endorses the quality of its global distribution. Collaboration broadens product portfolios and adds distribution in Asia.

Nufarm has a growing presence in North America and Europe. Sound sales momentum has been evident in North America and Europe. Several Chinese companies have previously expressed interest in acquiring Nufarm, but withdrew either because of too high a price demanded by the board, or because of reduced availability of debt. In 2010, Japanese company Sumitomo Chemical bought 20% of Nufarm, subsequently increasing its stake to 23% before diluting to 16%. The resultant collaboration should boost the performance of both companies, given little product portfolio overlap.

Financial Strength

Nufarm’s balance sheet is in great shape. In early April 2020, the company received AUD 1.2 billion net sale proceeds from major shareholder Sumitomo, for the sale of its South American crop protection and seed treatment operations in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile. This significantly bolstered the finances at a very fortuitous time, coming mid coronavirus. Prior to this in January 2020, group net debt had stood at a whopping AUD 1.6 billion. Nufarm’s under-leveraged balance sheet remains a strength. Fiscal 2021 net operating cash flow rebounded strongly from negative AUD 398 million in the pcp to positive AUD 370 million. This reflects a focus on working capital management. It sees net debt down 40% to a modest AUD 173 million, leverage (ND/(ND+E)) of just 8% and net debt/EBITDA very comfortable at 0.5. Net working capital significantly improved post sale of the Latin American business and remains a focus with improved debtor collections, reduced inventory and foreign exchange translation.

Our AUD 7.00 fair value for no-moat crop protection company Nufarm. Underlying fiscal 2021 NPAT improved to positive AUD 61 million against an underlying loss of AUD 67 million in the pcp. NPAT in the fiscal second half was negligible at just AUD 0.7 million. On a full fiscal year basis, APAC revenue enjoyed a sharp turnaround, up 52% to AUD 858 million and segment EBITDA margin nearly doubled to 12.7%. Nufarm shares plunged 8.5% on the day of profit release, a strange response given an all-important strong cash flow performance. The fall may have been in reaction to a decline in salmon demand impacting sales of Omega-3 canola. But there is a long way to run on Omega-3, still in its infancy, and we are unconcerned.

Bulls Say’s

  • Nufarm benefits from potential strength in soft commodities markets. 
  • Nufarm has well-established distribution platforms in most major global agricultural markets. 
  • Product and geographic diversification helps reduce earnings volatility.

Company Profile 

Nufarm Limited is a global crop-protection company that develops, manufactures, and sells a range of crop-protection products, including herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides. Nufarm sells its products in most of the world’s major agricultural regions, and operates primarily in the off-patent segment of the crop-protection market. Nufarm operates along two business lines: crop protection and seed technologies.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Fortescue has grown rapidly; Product discounts remain a competitive disadvantage

Business Strategy and Outlook

Fortescue Metals is the world’s fourth-largest iron ore exporter. Margins are well below industry leaders. Lower margins primarily result from discounts from mining a lower-grade (57%- to 58%-grade) product compared with the benchmark, which is for 62%-grade iron ore. The lower grade is effectively a cost for customers, which results in a lower realised price versus the benchmark. 

Fortescue has grown rapidly due to highly favourable iron ore prices, aggressive management, and historically low corporate interest rates. Fortescue has expanded its capacity unprecedented and built two thirds of its capacity at the peak of the capital cycle baked in a higher capital base than peers. This means returns are likely to lag those of the industry leaders, which benefit from building capacity at times when the capital cost per unit of output was, on average, much lower.

Fortescue has done an admirable job of reducing cash costs materially versus peers. However, product discounts remain a competitive disadvantage. To this end, the company will add about 22 million tonnes a year of iron ore production from the 61%-owned Iron Bridge joint venture. Iron Bridge grades are much higher, around 67%, which should allow Fortescue to meet its goal to have most of its iron ore above 60%, assuming the company chooses to blend it with the existing products.

Morningstar analyst lowered fair value estimate for Fortescue Metals to AUD 13 per share from AUD 15.10 per share previously. The shares have gone ex-entitlement to the final dividend, an unusually large AUD 2.11 per share or 14% of the previous fair value estimate. 

Financial Strength

Fortescue Metals Group’s balance sheet is strong, due to the elevated iron ore price and accelerated debt repayments. Net debt peaked near USD 10 billion in mid-2013, roughly coinciding with the start of expanded production. By the end of 2020, net debt had declined to USD 0.1 billion. Net debt/EBITDA is comfortable and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. It is expected that given the operating leverage in Fortescue, and the cyclical capital requirements, there is a reasonable argument that Fortescue should run with minimal or no debt on average through the cycle.

Bulls Say 

  • Fortescue provides strong leverage to the Chinese economy. If growth in steel consumption remains strong, it’s also likely iron ore prices and volumes will too. 
  • Fortescue is the largest pure-play iron ore counter in the world and offers strong leverage to emerging world growth. O
  • Fortescue has rapidly cut costs and significantly narrowed the cost disadvantage relative to industry leaders BHP, Vale, and Rio Tinto. If steel industry margins fall in future, it’s likely product discounts will narrow significantly relative to historical averages.

Company Profile

Fortescue Metals Group is an Australia-based iron ore miner. It has grown from obscurity at the start of 2008 to become the world’s fourth-largest producer. Growth was fuelled by debt, now repaid. Expansion from 55 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 to about 180 million tonnes in 2020 means Fortescue supplies nearly 10% of global seaborne iron ore. However, with longer-term demand likely to decline, as China’s economy matures, we expect Fortescue’s future margins to be below historical averages.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Alliant Energy’s Renewable Energy Growth accelerates Advancement

Business Strategy and Outlook

Alliant Energy investing nearly $7 billion in 2021-25 estimates company to achieve the midpoint of management’s 5% -7% target. Management estimates another $7 billion – $9 billion of capital investment opportunities in 2025-29.

Interstate Power and Light continues to build out renewable energy in the state. In addition to its 1,300 megawatts of wind generation in Iowa, for which the company earns a premium return on equity, the subsidiary now aims to install 400 MW of solar generation in the state. We continue to believe Iowa offers ample renewable energy investment opportunities–both wind and solar–to support the subsidiary’s Clean Energy Blueprint, which plans to eliminate all coal generation by 2040 and achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

At Wisconsin Power and Light, renewable energy is also a focus as the company begins replacing retiring coal generation. WPL plans nearly 1,100 MW of solar energy investments with battery storage. WPL has similar clean energy goals to Iowa, seeking to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030, eliminate coal from its coal generation fleet by 2040, and achieve net-zero carbon emissions from its generation fleet by 2050. Across both subsidiaries, renewable energy investments account for over 20% of rate base.

Alliant benefits from operating in two of the most constructive regulatory jurisdictions. To maintain earned returns near allowed returns during this period of high investment, management has worked to reduced regulatory lag, received above-average allowed returns across its subsidiaries, and aims to continue to reduce operating costs for the near term.

Financial Strength

It is estimated a capital of $7 billion to be planned spending between 2021 and 2025, Alliant will be a frequent debt issuer. The company will issue equity to maintain its allowed capital ratios. The company has manageable long-term debt maturities, and it is anticipated that it will be able to refinance its debt as it comes due. It is expected that total debt/EBITDA to remain around 5.0 times. Even with its large capital expenditure program, Alliant maintains a strong balance sheet and an investment-grade credit rating. The total debt/capital is projected to remain below 55% through forecast. Interest coverage should remain around 5 times throughout. Alliant has ample liquidity with cash on hand and sufficient borrowing capacity available under its revolving credit facilities. Alliant’s dividend is well covered with its regulated utilities’ earnings and expect the dividend pay-out ratio to remain between 60% and 70%.

Bulls Say’s

  • Alliant’s earnings growth prospects are robust, supported by renewable energy projects that have regulatory support. 
  • Regulators in Iowa and Wisconsin are embracing renewable energy, providing additional growth opportunities with favourable ratemaking. 
  • The company operates in constructive jurisdictions, supporting returns and capital projects.

Company Profile 

Alliant Energy is the parent of two regulated utilities, Interstate Power and Light and Wisconsin Power and Light, serving nearly 1 million electricity and natural gas customers and approximately 400,000 natural gas-only customers. Both subsidiaries engage in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas. Alliant also owns a 16% interest in American Transmission Co. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Huon reported results as expected; however earnings dented due to impacts of Covid

Investment Thesis:

  • HUO takeover price is $3.85. The Board have announced it believes accepting the offer is in the best interest of shareholders, absent any superior offer or independent expert advice.
  • Founding/major shareholders, Frances and Peter Bender, who hold ~53% of total shares, intend on voting in favour.
  • Growing consumer preference for natural and organic products, both in Australia and abroad, may see significant increase in salmon sales and therefore higher share prices. 
  • Number two player in the domestic market. 
  • With rational behaviour around pricing, the concentrated industry could benefit. 
  • Supportive salmon prices given disruption to global salmon supply. 
  • High barriers to entry (desired temperatures and regulatory licenses difficult to obtain). 
  • Given the complex nature of salmon farming HUO is unlikely to have its dominant position as an Australian salmon farmer ever seriously threatened.

Key Risks:

  • Takeover fails to proceed. 
  • Impact to production due to adverse weather conditions and diseases. 
  • Chemical coloring in salmon may lead to further negative publicity and undermine demand for salmon.
  • Cost pressures or cost blowout could deteriorate margins significantly given the large cost base relative to earnings (EBITDA). 
  • Irrational competitive behaviour (domestic and international markets). 
  • Negative media on the sustainability of the Tasmanian salmon industry.

Key highlights:

  • On an operating basis, EBITDA of $16.7m was in line with management guidance but declined -65% on pcp due to a -10% fall in the average price, made worst by an increase in production which caused a shift in the channel mix to spot export sales at materially increased freight costs.
  • NPAT decline of -$128.1m was a significant deterioration from $4.9m in the pcp.
  • Cash flow from operations was -$3.0m reflecting higher working capital requirements as freight costs doubled on pcp to $66m.
  • The two main contributors were the -12% fall in the average international salmon price in FY2021 compared to the previous year and the significant increase in freight charges due to limited access to international flights.
  • The impact of these were amplified by the commencement of Huon’s ramp up in production as part of its five-year strategy to expand capacity to meet future growth in domestic demand
  • The shut-down of international commercial flights was a major impediment to gaining access to the markets Huon needed to sell 44% of its FY2021 harvest.
  • HUON also announced on 6 August 2021, a takeover offer at $3.85 per share which is a +38% premium to the Huon share price of $2.79 on the prior trading day’s close.

Company Description: 

Huon Aquaculture (HUO) is a vertically integrated salmon producer in Australia. Its operations span all aspects of the supply chain, from hatcheries and marine farming to harvesting and processing, as well as sales and marketing. HUO’s marine farms are located in the cool, pristine waters of Tasmania, with the Company’s logistics infrastructure delivering salmon efficiently to the major fish markets around Australia. 

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

National Australia Bank (NAB) delivered a solid FY21 result despite underlying profit declining

Investment Thesis

  • Ongoing share back should be supportive of share price levels.
  • Well capitalized after the capital raising.
  • Expectations of further customer remediation costs.
  • Impairment charges provisioned for in 1H20 with lower risk of further impairments (especially as a low interest rate environment helps customers and arrears).
  • Strong franchise model with management capable of improving below a 40% cost to income ratio (however we do not factor in management’s long-term target of 35%). 
  • Potential pressure on net interest margins as competition intensifies with other major banks in a low interest rate environment. Though we expect these pressures to slightly alleviate as we move into a higher interest rate environment.
  • Improving return on equity with management proving their abilities in recent times to manage profitability in a low interest rate environment.
  • Strong provisioning coverage.
  • A well-diversified loan book.

Key Risk

  • Low growth environment impacting earnings.
  • Potential cuts or reduction to dividends due to low earnings growth. 
  • Intense competition for loan and deposit growth.
  • Normalizing / increase in bad and doubtful debts or increase in provisioning.
  • Funding pressure for deposits and wholesale funding (increased funding costs).
  • Any legal fees, settlements, loss or penalties associated with ASIC or US-based law suits.

FY21 Results Key Highlights:  Relative to the pcp:

  • Revenue declined -2.4% to $16,729m. Excluding large notable items in FY20, revenue was -3.0% lower, on lower Markets & Treasury (M&T) income, which was challenged due to limited trading opportunities.
  • Cash earnings up 76.8% to $6,558m. Excluding FY20 large notable items, cash earnings were up +38.6%.
  • Cash return on equity up 420 basis points to 10.7%.
  • Net interest margin of 1.71%, was 6bps lower due to M&T. NAB saw NIM pressure due to the low interest rate environment, home lending competitive pressures and a mix shift towards more fixed rate lending.
  • Group Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13% was up 153bps from September 2020 and includes 29bps net proceeds from the sale of MLC Wealth. Leverage ratio (APRA basis) is at 5.8%. Liquidity ratio quarterly average of 128%. Net Stable Funding Ratio of 123%.
  • Fully franked final dividend per share of 67 cents was up from 30cps in 2H20, and brings full year dividend to $1.27 per share, up +111% from 60cps in FY20.
  • Credit impairment charge write-back of $217m (versus $2,762m in FY20) reflecting forward looking provisions and lower underlying charges.
  • Collective provisions at 1.35 of credit risk weighted assets.

Company Profile

National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) is one of Australia’s largest banks, with the majority of their financial service businesses operating in Australia and New Zealand. The bank also has a presence in Asia, UK and the US. NAB offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investing banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trusts and nominee services.  

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Targa Improves Modeling of Grand Prix and Product Margins

Business Strategy and Outlook

Targa Resources is primarily a gatherer and processor of natural gas with an attractive position in the Permian Basin and other key U.S. shale plays. 

Targa’s longer-term growth picture over the next few years will be its Permian G&P position, liquefied petroleum gas exports, and the ramp-up of the Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline. There are few long-term concerns about the G&P business, because of the high level of competitive intensity within the Permian will keep returns extremely low. 

 The future of LPG exports and Grand Prix are quite attractive. LPG exports are largely contracted out to 2022 and sent mainly to Asian and Latin American markets. India remains a potentially attractive option under a government scheme designed to encourage LPG usage. Targa has wisely expanded its export capacity recently, and volumes are at record levels.

The Grand Prix NGL pipeline will be a highly attractive asset that takes advantage of Targa’s position in the Permian Basin to move over 350,000 barrels per day of NGLs by our estimates in 2021 (expandable to 550,000 b/d) to Mont Belvieu, and links Targa assets at both ends of the pipe, giving it more control over the molecule and ability to earn multiple fees. The Grand Prix pipeline will reduce Targa’s costs for NGLs, as it will no longer pay third-party tariffs to transport its NGLs to market.

Financial Strength 

In 2020, Targa’s financial health was weak but  has changed in a strong energy market in 2021 and Targa’s own efforts to fix its balance sheet. Targa has repaid $1 billion in debt in 2021, funded with strong earnings and lots of free cash by cutting the dividend and capital spending, and leverage is expected to reach 3.25 times by year-end, a commendable accomplishment for a firm that has historically run well over 4 times leverage. Still, Targa’s exposure to weaker customers is greater than peers’, as it disclosed that less than half of its revenue by our estimates is from investment-grade or letter of credit-backed customers. Peers tend to be around 75%-85% investment-grade or letter of credit-backed.Targa has boosted the dividend to $1.40 per share annually in November 2021, up from the $0.40 annually it paid out since March 2020. Previously, the payout was $3.64 annually. Share buybacks are now on the menu, as even after the expected Stonepeak repurchase in 2022 for $925 million, Targa will still have about $250 million-$300 million in excess free cash flow.

Bull Says

  • Targa is leveraged to the high-growth Permian, and its Grand Prix pipeline is expected to increase volumes 25% in 2021. 
  • Targa has reduced debt by $1 billion in 2021, which is a good accomplishment for what has historically been a highly leveraged firm. 
  • Targa is a significant fractionation player at the attractive Mont Belvieu hub.

Company Profile

Targa Resources is a midstream firm that primarily operates gathering and processing assets with substantial positions in the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken plays. It has 813,000 barrels a day of gross fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu and operates a liquefied petroleum gas export terminal. The Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline recently entered full service.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund: Concentrated portfolio of best global equities

The Responsible Entity (RE) is Investors Mutual Limited who has appointed Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P as the Investment Manager of the Fund. Loomis Sayles is a global asset manager that was established in 1926 and had over US$350b AUM as at 30 June 2021 across fixed income and equity investment mandates.

The Fund has a long only investment strategy with a fundamental bottom-up investment approach with the portfolio representing the “best ideas” of the investment team. The Fund seeks to deliver a return (after fees and expenses but before taxes) in excess of the benchmark (MSCI All Country World Index) over a full market cycle, which is considered to be 3-5 years. The Manager has an unconstrained mandate with no sector, style or geographic limitations. Stock selection is driven by the fundamental bottom up analysis undertaken by the investment team. The portfolio is concentrated given the investable universe with 35-65 stocks. The Manager has a long-term investment horizon and as such typically has low levels of portfolio turnover. The portfolio is expected to be largely fully invested at all times, with the portfolio typically having a cash position of less than 5%.

Investment Team:

Eileen Riley and Lee Rosenbaum have managed the investment strategy behind the Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund since 2013. They’re supported by a team of analysts and a solid foundation of interconnected firm-wide resources, enabling them to leverage extensive research capabilities across equity and debt. Collaboration helps ensure capital flows to the team’s best ideas.

Performance:

Global Equity Fund1 month1 yr2 yrs3 yrsSince Inception
Total Return2.70%27.20%19.00%20.00%20.00%
Benchmark*1.10%28.30%14.90%15.40%15.40%
Outperformance1.60%-1.10%4.10%4.60%4.60%

About the fund:

The Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund seeks to provide a concentrated portfolio of best ideas in global equities. Using foresight and flexibility, the team behind the Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund look far and wide to pursue attractive, sustainable potential returns. Their sound investment philosophy and disciplined process focus on uncovering drivers of long-term company performance. The research-driven approach is unconstrained by style, sector, or geography, with the flexibility to invest across market capitalisations, while risk management is integral to every investment decision.

This delivers a distinctive yet disciplined approach to global equities investing which looks different to other funds while seeking to deliver potential returns above the benchmark over the long term.

(Source: FNArena, loomissayles.com.au)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.