Investment Thesis:
- HUO takeover price is $3.85. The Board have announced it believes accepting the offer is in the best interest of shareholders, absent any superior offer or independent expert advice.
- Founding/major shareholders, Frances and Peter Bender, who hold ~53% of total shares, intend on voting in favour.
- Growing consumer preference for natural and organic products, both in Australia and abroad, may see significant increase in salmon sales and therefore higher share prices.
- Number two player in the domestic market.
- With rational behaviour around pricing, the concentrated industry could benefit.
- Supportive salmon prices given disruption to global salmon supply.
- High barriers to entry (desired temperatures and regulatory licenses difficult to obtain).
- Given the complex nature of salmon farming HUO is unlikely to have its dominant position as an Australian salmon farmer ever seriously threatened.
Key Risks:
- Takeover fails to proceed.
- Impact to production due to adverse weather conditions and diseases.
- Chemical coloring in salmon may lead to further negative publicity and undermine demand for salmon.
- Cost pressures or cost blowout could deteriorate margins significantly given the large cost base relative to earnings (EBITDA).
- Irrational competitive behaviour (domestic and international markets).
- Negative media on the sustainability of the Tasmanian salmon industry.
Key highlights:
- On an operating basis, EBITDA of $16.7m was in line with management guidance but declined -65% on pcp due to a -10% fall in the average price, made worst by an increase in production which caused a shift in the channel mix to spot export sales at materially increased freight costs.
- NPAT decline of -$128.1m was a significant deterioration from $4.9m in the pcp.
- Cash flow from operations was -$3.0m reflecting higher working capital requirements as freight costs doubled on pcp to $66m.
- The two main contributors were the -12% fall in the average international salmon price in FY2021 compared to the previous year and the significant increase in freight charges due to limited access to international flights.
- The impact of these were amplified by the commencement of Huon’s ramp up in production as part of its five-year strategy to expand capacity to meet future growth in domestic demand
- The shut-down of international commercial flights was a major impediment to gaining access to the markets Huon needed to sell 44% of its FY2021 harvest.
- HUON also announced on 6 August 2021, a takeover offer at $3.85 per share which is a +38% premium to the Huon share price of $2.79 on the prior trading day’s close.
Company Description:
Huon Aquaculture (HUO) is a vertically integrated salmon producer in Australia. Its operations span all aspects of the supply chain, from hatcheries and marine farming to harvesting and processing, as well as sales and marketing. HUO’s marine farms are located in the cool, pristine waters of Tasmania, with the Company’s logistics infrastructure delivering salmon efficiently to the major fish markets around Australia.
(Source: Banyantree)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.