Author: lvc-admin

Categories
Global stocks

Dollar General Should Weather Near-Term Supply Chain Issues, Long-Term Competition Well

Young woman trading stock market by touching.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Despite intensifying competition that we believe is diminishing its competitive edge, Dollar General’s advantageously located store network, low-priced items, and leverageable supply and distribution capabilities should allow it to deliver economic returns. With a footprint focused on thinly populated areas that cannot support numerous retailers and make shipments to homes costly for a small basket (over 80% of items are priced at or below $5), we expect Dollar General to use its burgeoning scale and proximity to customers to economically deliver the convenience and affordability that its generally modest-income (roughly $40,000 annually, as a household) customers demand. 

Still, switching costs are negligible, forcing Dollar General to face intense competition from convenience stores, mass merchandisers, hard discounters, grocery stores, pharmacy chains, and online retailers (Amazon). The crowded landscape puts a premium on execution, a challenge management has met thus far but requires agility as customers’ demands change.

Financial Strength

With stores that have remained open through the pandemic, ample liquidity, and negligible near-term maturities, the firm is well positioned to endure a volatile fiscal 2021-22 as the economy normalizes. The firm has a history of limited leverage, with net debt roughly equal to adjusted EBITDA over the past five years, on average. It is expected that such prudence to continue. Despite aggressive growth (from under 9,000 stores at the start of fiscal 2010 to more than 17,000 at the end of fiscal 2020), free cash flow generation has been strong. 

Furthermore, in the event of financial strain, Dollar General should be able to hold additional funds as needed by simply curbing its unit growth targets, reducing capital expenditure needs, which we forecast to average 2%-3% of sales over the next decade, or more than $1 billion annually.Dollar General introduced a dividend in fiscal 2015, with a payout ratio averaging nearly 20% over fiscal 2015-20. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • Low price points and average ticket sizes protect the dollar store segment from digital incursion as shipping costs are difficult to absorb, all while allowing firms to sell smaller package sizes at higher margins. 
  • Dollar General capitalizes on a broad network of stores, which include rural locations that are often the only convenient sizable retailer. 
  • With its stores considered essential, a consumablesheavy lineup, and potential to capture trade-down sales, Dollar General should largely sidestep the COVID-19 pandemic’s adverse economic consequences.

Company Profile 

A leading American discount retailer, Dollar General operates over 17,000 stores in 46 states, selling branded and private-label products across a wide variety of categories. In fiscal 2020, more than 76% of net sales came from consumables (including paper and cleaning products, packaged and perishable food, tobacco, and health and beauty items), 12% from seasonal merchandise (such as toys, greeting cards, decorations, and gardening supplies), 7% from home products (for example, kitchen supplies, small appliances, and cookware), and 5% from basic apparel. Stores average roughly 7,400 square feet, and about 75% of Dollar General locations are in towns of 20,000 or fewer people. The firm emphasizes value, with more than 80% of its items sold at everyday low prices of $5 or less.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Costco’s Advantages Should Weather Near-Term Supply Chain Challenges and Long-Term Competition

Business Strategy and Outlook

With a besotted member base, low-frills warehouses, and growth opportunities at home and abroad, it is expected that Costco’s durable competitive advantages lead to consistent, strong performance despite retail’s upheaval. The competitive environment is intense and becoming more challenging as Amazon scales and physical rivals deliver an omnichannel experience, but it is believed that the values that Costco offers (driven by cost leverage, procurement strength, and top-class store efficiency) should allow it to keep traffic high. With ample opportunity to expand globally, Costco Is expected to post consistently strong returns even as it grows. 

Through a financial crisis, the maturation of digital general merchandise retail, the expansion of Amazon’s Prime offering, a credit card provider switch, a robust pre-pandemic economy, two meaningful fee increases, and the COVID-19 outbreak, Costco’s membership renewal rates in the United States and Canada have remained at roughly 90%. The traffic-driving values that Costco offers in its stores are fueled by cost leverage and procurement strength that, in turn, feeds additional store visits. 

As per Morningstar analyst perspective, it is believed that the firm’s food and fuel offerings drive traffic and suspect that Costco is poised to thrive even as digital sellers expand. Although it is expected to keep pace with rivals by further developing its omni channel offering (a mid- to high-single-digit share of fiscal 2021 sales, excluding same-day grocery and various other services, came from e-commerce), it is  believed that Costco’s value proposition should support continued member growth and in-store sales expansion.

Financial Strength

With strong cash flow generation and a dedicated subscriber base, Costco is in good financial health. Costco had $11 billion in balance sheet cash as of the end of fiscal 2021 against just $7.5 billion in debt. The geographic mix of new store openings will shift as Costco grows to more than 1,000 warehouses; it is expected that openings and digital investments will leave capital expenditures at roughly 2% of sales, in line with the firm’s five-year average. Despite the spending, analysts expect the firm will be able to balance growth with returning capital to shareholders without meaningfully altering its leverage metrics. Morningstar analyst expects that firm’s conservative balance sheet approach to endure despite continued share repurchases. With free cash flow to the firm expected to average around 2%-3% of sales (consistent with recent results), it can be observed that Costco has significant financial flexibility. It is suspected such returns will include special dividends, which Costco paid in fiscal 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2021. 

Bull Says

  • Costco’s membership format exhibits strong customer loyalty, with renewal rates holding steady around 90% in a variety of economic environments and despite Amazon’s growth (particularly Prime) and the broader digitization of retail. 
  • Costco’s focused assortment reduces complexity while concentrating its buying power, which we believe grants it exceptional procurement leverage. 
  • Costco should be a safe harbor in retail seas roiled by the COVID-19 pandemic, with its competitive advantages holding returns steady.

Company Profile

The leading warehouse club, Costco has 815 stores worldwide (at the end of fiscal 2021), with most sales derived in the United States (72%) and Canada (14%). It sells memberships that allow customers to shop in its warehouses, which feature low prices on a limited product assortment. Costco mainly caters to individual shoppers, but roughly 20% of paid members carry business memberships. Food and sundries accounted for 40% of fiscal 2021 sales, with non-food merchandise 29%, warehouse ancillary and other businesses (such as fuel and pharmacy) nearly 17%, and fresh food 14%. Costco’s warehouses average around 146,000 square feet; over 75% of its locations offer fuel. About 7% of Costco’s global sales come from e-commerce (excluding same-day grocery and various other services).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Novartis results beat consensus delivering revenue of US$12.95bn

Investment Thesis:

  • Relatively high barriers to entry, with a significant amount of funds deployed in R&D every year. 
  • Recent and upcoming divestments will streamline the business and provide increased focus to deliver shareholder returns. 
  • Recent product launches indicate solid sales momentum, with near-term product pipeline potentially providing further upside. 
  • Selective bolt-on acquisitions to supplement organic growth. 
  • Operating efficiency focuses to further support earnings growth. 
  • As the new management team improves Company culture, investors are less likely to ascribe a discount to the stock based on legacy issues.

Key Risks:

  • Recently launched products fail to deliver sales growth as expected by the market. 
  • New product pipeline fails to yield “blockbuster” products or delays in bringing key products to market. 
  • R&D programs do not yield new long-term ideas. 
  • Increased competition (pricing pressure & innovative products) from new entrants or existing players. 
  • Value destructive M&A. 
  • Regulatory / litigation risks.

Key highlights:

  • NOVN’s product development pipeline continues to progress well without any major disruptions.
  • Novartis (NOVN) 2Q21 results beat consensus on both top and bottom line, delivering revenue of US$12.95bn (vs estimates of US$12.49bn) and EPS of US$1.28 (vs estimate of US$1.08) as disruption from the pandemic waned, with management announcing the growth drivers and launches continue to show excellent momentum with +35% growth and now contributing to more than 50% of top line.
  • The Oncology business continued to recover delivering +7% growth with sales reaching US$3.9bn during the quarter, with management expecting to see accelerated growth if trends move toward pre-Covid-19 levels in 2H21.
  • Financial position remained strong with the Company not experiencing liquidity or cash flow disruptions during 2Q21 due to the Covid-19, ending the quarter with total liquidity of US$5.4bn.
  • FY21 net sales to grow low to mid-single digit, with Innovative Medicines to grow mid-single digit and Sandoz to decline low to mid-single digit, and core operating income to grow midsingle digit (ahead of sales), with Innovative Medicines growing mid to high-single digit, ahead of sales, and Sandoz declining low to mid-teens.
  • The Company retained strong capital structure (credit rating of A1/AA- by Moody’s/S&P), not experiencing any liquidity or cash flow (2Q FCF up +17% over pcp) disruptions during 2Q21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Description: 

Novartis AG (NOVN) is an innovative healthcare company headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, with approximately 125,000 employees. In 2017, the Group reported net sales of US$49.1bn, while R&D throughout the Group amounted to approximately US$9.0bn. The Company sells its products in approximately 155 countries. The group has two segments which it reports on: (1) Innovative Medicines (Oncology / Pharmaceutical), and (2) Sandoz generics division.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Kotak Bond Direct Growth: Stable team supports the process and has the potential to outperform in the long term with its active duration positioning

Kotak Bond is actively managed and run by an experienced team with a robust investment strategy. The fund has delivered consistent returns, and we believe it is a strong choice for investors who seek a quality portfolio and are willing to occasionally take a higher investment risk for higher returns.

Approach 

The strategy is run using a team-based approach and has a strong fundamental process in place. The fund is more focused towards taking active duration bets and invests primarily in high-quality credits. Credit analysis is divided into banking, nonbanking financial companies, and manufacturing debt, further demarcated into three buckets based on the strength of the business, management, and corporate governance standards. The qualitative assessment is then followed by rigourous quantitative analysis wherein financial ratios such as leverage, coverage, and solvency ratios are considered.

Portfolio

In 2021, the manager maintained a high allocation to government securities mainly towards the medium and long end because of attractive yields. He is overweight at the medium end because he believes that, regardless of whether the yield went up or down, the middle of the segment would provide a good level of carry and roll-down advantage. At the same time, the steepness of the curve made the longer end of the curve look appealing. However, because of the uncertainty surrounding the rate hike, he kept a limited the fund avoids investing in anything below AAA segment and intermittently holds higher cash/money market instruments to take opportunistic trading calls when markets are bumpy.

People

Abhishek Bisen is an experienced manager who has been with the fund house since October 2006. He took over this fund in April 2008 along with Deepak Agrawal. From July 2015, Bisen has been sole manager after Agrawal moved out to manage credit and shorter-maturity funds. Bisen is well-engrained in Kotak’s philosophy, and his skills complement the investment process. The fixed-income strategies are run using a team-based approach that follows an inclusive culture. It fosters the collective input of the investment specialists closest to the source of investment information.

Performance

Abhishek Bisen has delivered robust returns during his tenure from April 2008 to November 2021. It ranked in the first quartile by outperforming 82% of its peers, delivering returns of 8.19% versus the category average of 7.39%. In 2021, he maintained a higher exposure to medium-duration bonds and government securities. This resulted in superior risk-adjusted returns for the fund. We believe the fund has the potential to outperform with its active investment strategy across interest-rate cycle. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Newcrest focus on cost efficiency, capital discipline and optimisation

Business Strategy and Outlook

Newcrest accounts for less than 3% of global mine production and is a price taker. Returns have improved post the expensive acquisition of Lihir, but are likely to remain below the company’s cost of capital for the foreseeable future.

Operations are focused on the Asia-Pacific region, with production split roughly evenly between Australia and Papua New Guinea, or PNG, with a smaller contribution from the Americas. The company is a long-established low-cost producer, save a cost spike in 2013, which subsequently abated.

Current management was installed in 2014 and brought a focus on cost efficiency, capital discipline and optimisation. Under Sandeep Biswas,Newcrest has been a much more reliable producer and has delivered incremental improvements at its operations, boosting throughput and lowering unit costs, particularly at Lihir and Cadia. Newcrest has a solid exploration record. Excluding acquired Lihir ounces, gold equivalent reserves increased from 3.4 million ounces in 1992 to 78 million ounces in December 2017, while resources increased from 8.5 million ounces to 144 million ounces. Gold equivalent resources were added at less than AUD 20 per ounce. Reserves at the end of 2020 were 49 million ounces of gold and 6.8 million metric tons of copper.

Financial Strength 

The company’s balance sheet is sound. The company ended June 2021 with modest net cash of USD 0.2 billion. We expect net debt to grow to end fiscal 2022 to about USD 1.5 billion with the acquisition of Pretium Resources and elevated capital expenditure at Cadia, Lihir and with the development of Havieron and Red Chris. However, despite the increase, we think the balance sheet is still sound. We forecast debt/EBITDA to peak slightly to around 0.7 in fiscal 2022 before declining gradually through the remainder of our forecast period.Newcrest has long-dated corporate bonds totaling USD 1.65 billion. The bonds mature in fiscal 2030, 2042, and 2050 with maturities of USD 650 million, USD 500 million, and USD 500 million, respectively. At the end of fiscal 2021, the company had USD 1.8 billion of cash and USD 1.6 billion of undrawn debt.

Bulls Say 

  • Gold companies can behave countercyclically. They provide a hedge to inflation risk and tend to offer some benefit in times of market uncertainty. Gold can gain from continued money printing and/or if there is a flight to safety. 
  • Newcrest’s reserves are massive and mine life is long, offering leverage to upwards movements in the gold price. 
  • Newcrest owns several world-scale deposits in Cadia, Telfer, Lihir, and Wafi-Golpu. Large deposits typically bring significant exploration upside and expansion options.

Company Profile

Newcrest is an Australia-based gold and, to a lesser extent, copper miner. Operations are predominantly in Australia and Papua New Guinea, with a smaller mine in Canada. Cash costs are below the industry average, underpinned by improvements at Lihir and Cadia. Newcrest is one of the larger global gold producers but accounts for less than 3% of total supply. Gold mining is relatively fragmented.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

HDFC Corporate Bond Growth: A fund focused to generate optimise return by investing in high credit rated instruments

Approach 

The investment philosophy is to optimise returns without taking excessive duration or credit risk. with most performance is driven by selecting securities offering attractive yields within the AAA rated segment. Expectedly, the investment approach relies on fundamental research. It entails combining qualitative aspects with quantitative analysis. This in turn helps the managers to determine issuer exposure they can take, thereby acting as a risk-management tool for the individual portfolio and the fund company. The investment team lays more emphasis on risk control, thereby focusing on balancing safety, liquidity, and return.

Portfolio 

The fund’s investment mandate is to invest at least 80% of assets in corporate bonds having a rating of AA+ and above. Anupam Joshi’s emphasis on liquidity and risk control is borne out by the fund’s portfolio, where almost 100% of assets are invested in AAA or equivalent rated securities. Papers issued by public-sector undertakings such as NABARD, PFC, and REC continue to find a place in the portfolio. From the private sector, established names such as HDFC and Tata Sons, in which the manager has confidence, feature in the portfolio. On the duration front, the team believes interest rates will move up from where they are currently, but it will be a more gradual increase. In line with the same, the modified duration of the fund has been reduced in the past year to 2.72 years in November 2021 from 3.35 years in October 2020. Finally, Joshi will build cash when there aren’t attractive investment opportunities and to ride out periods of volatility and uncertainty.

People

Anupam Joshi joined HDFC Mutual Fund in October 2015 and has been managing this fund since then. Earlier, he was associated with IDFC Mutual fund as portfolio manager from 2008 till his exit from the fund house.

Performance

Under Anupam Joshi (October 2015-November 2021) the fund’s direct share class has clocked an annualised return of 8.45%, outperforming the category average (6.51%) and featuring in the top performance quartile. Under the difficult environment of 2020, the fund clocked a return of 12.09%, outperforming the category average of 9.10%. In 2021, too, the fund’s direct share class has delivered a top-quartile performance. The fund is also a top-quartile performer over the trailing one-, three- and five-year periods.

About the fund  

The scheme seeks to generate income/capital appreciation through investments predominantly in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. Its benchmark against NIFTY Corporate Bond Index. The investment strategy is well-defined for this fund, which also paves way for its effective and predictable execution. It’s a low-risk, short- to medium-duration strategy that works on the philosophy of optimising returns for investors without exposing them to excessive duration or credit risk. Therefore, investments are made only in AAA rated securities and the duration is maintained within a range of 1.0 to 4.0 years.

Joshi brings in his own style of investing while managing this fund. For instance, earlier the fund was managed with an approach of holding majority of investments till maturity, thus allowing a linear roll-down in its average maturity. Joshi prefers managing the fund more actively. The strategy has its limitations: In times when credit markets are buoyant, the fund may find it hard to match peers that, within the defined mandate of the category, can go down the credit curve. The fund may also struggle against peers that follow a more dynamic approach to duration management, compared with Joshi’s measured approach, during fast changing interest-rate scenarios.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
IPO Watch

Supriya Lifescience displays healthy listing with 55% premium

Money bag with the word IPO (Initial public offering; stock market launch) and a calculator. The first public sale of shares of a joint stock company. Business and finance concept

The Rs 700 crore- IPO by the API manufacturer, Supriya Lifescience was issued from December 16 to 20, 2021. The issue price was in the range of INR 265-274 per equity share. The Book Running Lead Managers were Axis Capital Limited and ICICI Securities Limited.

Overall, the issue received bids for 1,03,89,57,138 shares against 1,45,28,299 shares on offer, according to NSE data. The IPO comprised a fresh issue of up to Rs 200 crore and an offer for sale of up to Rs 500 crore.

The subscription by QIBs was 31.83 times, NII category was subscribed 161.22 times, Retail investors subscribed 56.01 times, thereby making the entire subscription 71.51 times.

The pre-issue holding of promoters was 99.98%, which after issue is 68.24%.  The scrip was listed on secondary market at INR 425 on BSE with premium of 55.11% and on NSE it was listed at INR 421.

Proceeds of the issue would be utilized for funding capital expenditure requirements of the company, repayment and/ or pre-payment, in full or part, of certain borrowings availed by the company and general corporate purposes.

Supriya Lifescience looks forward to achieve continuous growth in coming years on account of strong fundamentals. Since past three to four years it has bee growing at the CAGR of 18%. The company has managed to maintain 40% EBITDA margin, which is due to their focus on penetrating into more regulated markets where we are able to get a much better average selling price for the existing products. They look forward to add more APIs into existing therapeutic categories apart from adding new therapeutic categories in their basket, like decongestants, anti-gout, xanthine derivatives and more vitamin derivatives. They wish to focus more on anti-anxiety therapies.

Supriya Lifescience envisages to expand across newer geographies and focus more on regulated markets like North America, Japan and China. Currently, twelve of the existing products are backward integrated and contribute about 65% of the total revenue and it continues to be their strategy for further capacity expansion and product developments as well. About Rs 92 crore of the amount that will be raised would be utilised for capacity enhancements by adding a new production block which would add further capacity.

About the company:

Supriya Lifescience is a manufacturer and supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) with a focus on research and development. As of October 31, it had niche product offerings of 38 APIs focused on diverse therapeutic segments such as antihistamine, analgesic, anaesthetic, vitamin, anti-asthmatic and antiallergic. The API maker has consistently been the largest exporter of Chlorpheniramine Maleate and Ketamine Hydrochloride from India, contributing to 45-50 per cent and 60-65 per cent, respectively, of the API exports from India, between fiscal 2017 and 2021.

(Source: economictimes.com)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Strong Growth Returns for MSC Industrial but Operating Environment Remains Challenging

Business Strategy and Outlook

MSC has become one of the largest industrial distributors in U.S., and it is especially well known in the metalworking industry, wherein the firm enjoys approximately 10% market share.While MSC’s sales declined in 2020 (negative 5%) and sales growth was anemic in 2021 (2%) amid the global pandemic, over the longer term, but as per Morningstar analyst perspective it is expected that mid-single-digit growth prospects for the company driven by a return to healthier end-market demand and market share gains from smaller local and regional distributors.

Because MSC has national scale and a robust portfolio of products and value-added inventory management services, it is well positioned to capitalize on the growing trend of manufacturers consolidating spending with large distributors. Although national accounts can generate lower gross profit margins, they can also generate higher volume, which MSC can leverage to improve operating margins. MSC’s focus on providing inventory management solutions has helped the firm expand customer wallet share over the years, and we expect that trend to continue.

MSC has proved to be a consistent free cash flow generator throughout the business cycle, and in our view, it has allocated its free cash flow in a balanced, shareholder-friendly manner. We expect MSC to continue to use its excess cash to increase its regular dividend and repurchase shares. The company also occasionally pays special dividends, most recently in fiscal 2021 ($3.50 per share) and 2020 ($5.00 per share).

Strong Growth Returns for MSC Industrial but Operating Environment Remains Challenging

MSC Industrial Direct enjoyed strong year-over-year revenue growth during its fiscal first quarter ended Nov. 27. Sales increased nearly 10% as the company executed on its growth initiatives and end market demand improved (industrial production has expanded at a steady pace for much of 2021). In terms of the growth initiatives, MSC saw notable growth during the quarter from its industrial vending and in-plant initiatives as well as from its e-commerce platform (MSCDirect.com). 

While MSC’s first-quarter revenue growth was encouraging (and caused us to increase our full-year fiscal 2022 revenue growth projection to 8% from 6.5% previously), supply chain challenges and inflationary headwinds persist. CEO Erik Gershwind said the company is seeing little evidence of easing supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages are severe, and inflation is the most extreme he can recall. Yet, despite these challenges, MSC managed to expand adjusted operating margin 30 basis points year over year 11.3%. Management was disappointed with its gross margin, which contracted 30 basis points year over year (to 41.6%) as the firm’s price/cost dynamic had not been as favorable as management would have liked (price/cost was slightly positive during the quarter). However, MSC realized nice leverage on its operating expenses (7.5% growth compared with 10% top-line growth). MSC intends to increase prices by more than 2% in fiscal 2022 to improve gross margin, and management is still targeting about a 42% gross margin (unchanged year over year), which we think is achievable.

Morningstar analyst have increased fair value estimate about 2% to $87 per share due to our stronger revenue growth outlook and the time value of money.

Financial Strength 

MSC has historically operated with a very conservative balance sheet, and it has only significantly flexed its balance sheet for large acquisitions (2006 and 2013) and large share buybacks (MSC spent $384 million to repurchase 5.3 million shares in 2016) a handful of times. At the end of its fiscal first-quarter 2022, MSC had an outstanding debt balance of $763 million. MSC’s earnings provide the firm with substantial headroom to service its debt obligations. During fiscal 2021, MSC incurred about $15 million of interest expense and generated $441 million of adjusted EBITDA, which equates to a comfortable interest coverage ratio of about 30 times. MSC has a proven ability to generate free cash flow throughout the cycle. It has generated positive free cash flow every year since 2001, and the firm’s free cash flow generation tends to spike during downturns due to reduced working capital requirements. This dynamic played out in 2020 with free cash flow increasing 26% despite sales declining 5%. Given the firm’s relatively conservative balance sheet and consistent free cash flow generation, it is believed that MSC’s financial health is satisfactory.

Bulls Say  

  • As end-market demand improves, MSC could return to mid- to high-single-digit sales growth and highteens return on invested capital. 
  • MSC’s national scale and focus on value-added inventory management services should help the firm take market share from smaller regional and local distributors. 
  • MSC generates consistent free cash flow and runs a shareholder-friendly capital-allocation strategy. The company should continue to utilize its free cash flow to increase its regular dividend, repurchase shares, and occasionally pay special dividends.

Company Profile

MSC Industrial Direct is a value-added industrial distributor with a focus on metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations products and services. The company offers 1.9 million products through its distribution network which has 11 fulfillment centers. Although MSC has a presence in Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, it primarily operates in the United States. In fiscal 2021, 94% of the firm’s $3.2 billion of sales was generated in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Status Quo Likely to Be Maintained on U.S. Health Insurance and Tax Rates

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Centene aims to be the top provider of government- sponsored health plans. Although it has grown at a solid clip organically, Centene also has made significant acquisitions- most notably the 2020 WellCare merger–to meet that goal. Technology investments to boost efficiency have helped Centene prosper in this relatively low-margin managed care sector, as well.

Centene leads the Medicaid managed-care business; those plans accounted for about two thirds of its medical membership. The Medicaid program is jointly funded by federal and state governments and primarily serves low-income individuals of any age and people with disabilities. The Affordable Care Act expanded the Medicaid population starting in 2014, and we think this program may be used in the future to expand insured rates further.

Through the acquisition of WellCare in early 2020, Centene added to its Medicare-related capabilities, particularly in the fast-growing Medicare Advantage program. With positive demographic trends and increasing popularity relative to traditional Medicare plans, we see the Medicare Advantage program as one of the most attractive growth opportunities in health insurance in the long run. This opportunity largely explains the appeal of the WellCare deal, although WellCare also added to Centene’s Medicaid footprint, too.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate of the stock is USD 91.00, which reflects 17 times price/earnings multiple on 2022 expected earnings.

Centene’s balance sheet remains in fine financial shape even after the WellCare merger in early 2020. With total debt around $19 billion at the end of September 2021 (including $2 billion issued for the pending Magellan Health acquisition) and the potential to deleverage in the near term primarily through profit growth, we project that the company’s gross leverage could decline to roughly 3 times in the next couple of years. Debt/capital appears likely to return to its target of the mid- to high-30s in the near future, too. The company’s maturity schedule appears easily manageable, as well, with the company facing limited maturities during the next five years, which includes its $2 billion term loan facility, borrowings on its revolver ($150 million), a construction loan ($188 million), and finance leases ($495 million).

Bulls Say:

  • Centene represents a countercyclical investment opportunity in managed care, as it can benefit from economic downturns through increasing enrollment in its Medicaid and individual exchange products. 
  • With a focus on government-sponsored programs, Centene could benefit from potential U.S. policy changes to reach universal, affordable coverage in the long run. 
  • Centene’s midteens annualized earnings growth goal through 2024 puts its near the top of its MCO peers in that metric.

Company Profile:

Centene is a managed-care organization focused on government-sponsored healthcare plans, including Medicaid, Medicare, and the individual exchanges. Centene served 22 million medical members as of September 2021, mostly in Medicaid (68% of membership), the individual exchanges (10%), Medicare Advantage (6%), and the balance in Tricare (West region), correctional facility, and international plans. The company also serves 4 million users through the Medicare Part D pharmaceutical program.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

PIMCO ESG Global Bond Fund: A Fund providing exposure to core bond holding with ESG bias

The Fund provides exposure to investment grade securities from around the globe while incorporating PIMCO’s ESG screening framework. The strategy can be used as a core bond holding in client portfolios who have an ESG bias. The PIMCO Global Bond Fund is in attraction due to the well-resourced / experienced investment team and PIMCO’s well established investment process. PIMCO’s ESG framework involves three stages: (1) Exclude (restrictions on certain sectors). (2) Evaluate (best in class ESG issuers + prime engagement candidates). (3) Engage (engage issuers to improve ESG related business practices).

Downside Risk

  • Interest rate risk (bond prices and yields are inversely related). 
  • Credit risk (the risk of downgrades or even default) & inflation risk. 
  •  Personnel risk – significant turnover among the 3 lead PMs.

Fund Performance (As at Aug, 2021)

C:\Users\Akhila\Downloads\Screenshot 2021-12-29 144804.png

Investment Process

PIMCO applies a wide range of strategies including Duration analysis, Credit analysis, Relative Value analysis, Sector Allocation and Rotation and individual security selection. The Manger looks to make active decisions with a long-term focus and avoid extreme swings in duration or maturity with a view to creating a steady stream of returns. The Manager has designed and structured a global investment process that includes both top-down and bottom-up decision-making. The first and most important step in the firm’s process is to get the long-term view correct. The figure below provides a summary of the key elements in the investment process.

C:\Users\Akhila\Downloads\Screenshot 2021-12-29 145011.png

Secular analysis: The Manager considers its secular analysis as critical to the investment process, with the firm devoting three days every year to a “Secular Forum”. At this forum, the firm formulates PIMCO’s outlook for global bond markets over the next three to five years. Selected members of the investment staff are assigned secular topics to monitor, including monetary and fiscal policy, inflation, demographics, technology, productivity trends, and global trade. Secular researchers tackle their subjects on a global basis and approach them over a multi-year horizon. At the forum the researchers present their findings to all of the firm’s investment professionals. 

Decision making: Post Secular and Economic Forums, the Investment Committee (senior portfolio managers) develop major strategies that serve as a model for all portfolios using a consensus-based approach. The IC utilises top-down analysis provided by the forums as well as bottom-up input from specialists who focus on various fixed income sectors and the regional portfolio committees. The Investment Committee sets targets for portfolio characteristics such as duration, yield curve exposure, convexity, sector concentration and credit quality and ensures themes are consistently applied across all portfolios. The portfolio management group including the PIMCO Global Strategy team, through the incorporation of the Investment Committee’s model portfolio characteristics, will then construct the Fund.

About the fund

 The ESG Global Bond Fund is an actively managed portfolio of global fixed interest investment which incorporates PIMCO’s ESG screening. The portfolio predominantly invests in governments, corporate, mortgage and other global fixed interest securities.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.