Tag: US Market
while the more expensive N share class is rated Silver. This strategy is hemmed in compared with others they run given its 5% limit on high-yield corporate, and in practice it has had very little exposure there. As a result, the strategy outpaced 80% of peers in 2020, its best calendar year relative to peers since 2012. Among traditional core bond offerings, this is one of the best options available to investors.
Executing and refining
The strategy has long exhibited a strong balance between flexibility and discipline, while smaller, more recent improvements should continue to differentiate it from peers. As a result, its Process Pillar rating is upgraded to High from Above Average. This strategy is run by value investors looking to buy bonds when they’re cheap and sell them when they get expensive. They also dial risk up and down in a predictable fashion, and have made slight changes in recent years, such as an adjustment to more dynamically manage duration, which has resulted in the strategy being more competitive.
Back on defense
As of December 2020, the strategy’s largest allocation was to U.S. Treasuries, which soaked up 41% of assets. This was up dramatically from just a few months prior; Treasuries accounted for 30% of assets at the end of 2019 before managers drew down that stake to fund purchases during the sell-off, and by March 2020 it had fallen to under 9%. Agency mortgage-backed securities were the next-largest allocation at 30% of assets, a number that also moved around dramatically throughout the last year.
The managers dropped it to 5.2 years when the Fed cut rates in early 2020 but have since been increasing it as the economy and market recovered.
Rock steady
From January 2010 (the team’s first full month) through March 2021, the strategy’s institutional share class returned 4.3% annualized, beating roughly four fifths of distinct intermediate core bond peers; the peer group’s median return over the same period was 3.8%, while the benchmark Aggregate Index returned 3.7%. Though this strategy has less flexibility to invest in high-yield than Metropolitan West Total Return Bond (this one can own up to 5%, while its sibling can hold 20%), its overall positioning has mirrored the firm’s flagship strategy. Conservative positioning heading into 2020 led the strategy to hold up better than two thirds of distinct peers in the COVID-19 sell-off between Feb. 20, 2020, and March 23, 2020. As a result, the strategy beat out 80% of peers for calendar-year 2020.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Looking across CNH’s end markets, we think agriculture demand will continue to be a major driver in the back half of the year. In our view, demand will be supported by strong crop exports to China. This dynamic has been a key reason why crop prices have been relatively high over the past year. Rising crop prices have propelled farmer incomes higher, allowing them to refresh their aging agriculture equipment–a benefit to CNH.
Overall, manufacturing sales reached $8.5 billion in the quarter, up 65% year on year. The strength in the company’s top line was attributable to increased volumes and favorable product mix. In agriculture, tractor sales worldwide were up 28%, compared with the prior-year period. Of that, high horsepower tractors (above 140 horsepower) saw strong volume growth in North America, surging 49% year on year. Combines also contributed to volume growth in the quarter, up 14% worldwide, with extraordinary growth in South America (up 38% year on year). CNH’s gross margins were also strong in the quarter, coming in at 19.3% as higher pricing more than offset cost inflation (due to supply chain constraints).
Company’s Future Outlook
Management reaffirmed its commitment to spinning off the on-highway business (commercial vehicles and power train businesses). Following the spin-off, CNH’s end market exposure will largely be focused on agriculture markets, with the balance in construction markets. We believe this is a good move for the company as the agriculture business has been fairly profitable for CNH. On average, its EBIT margins have been nearly twice the consolidated business’ EBIT margins. We estimate over 80% of EBIT will be coming from agriculture after the spin-off is completed, putting CNH on much better footing from a profitability standpoint.
Company Profile
CNH Industrial is a global manufacturer of heavy machinery, with a range of products including agricultural and construction equipment, commercial vehicles, and power train components. One of its most recognizable brands, Case IH, has served farmers for generations. Its products are available through a robust dealer network, which includes over 3,600 dealer and distribution locations globally. CNH Industrial’s finance arm provides retail financing for equipment and vehicles to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers; which increases the likelihood of product sales.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
The team still intends to balance a higher-yielding corporate-bond stake with securitized fare and U.S. Treasuries, yet the strategy’s high-yield sleeve is now capped at 5% of assets (compared with a previous sleeve of 10% to 20% of assets). Corporate credit still typically accounts for 60% to 65% of assets and drives returns, while high quality securitized fare (20% to 25%), U.S. Treasuries (10% to 15%), and cash are intended to provide stability. This stake stood at 35% of assets as of March 31, 2021, which was 17% larger than the typical intermediate core bond peer. This translates to more credit risk relative to peers.
- A new shift to higher quality is untested.
The managers employ a consistent, conventional investment process overseen by an adequately sized team. The strategy earns an Average Process Pillar rating. The team emphasizes corporate credit relative to Treasuries and securitized assets, with bottom-up analysis driving credit selection. Manager John Friedl and his team search for credits they believe will provide the best opportunities over a full market cycle; they have a stated preference for smaller offerings in energy, healthcare, utilities, and REITs buoyed by larger names in the financial sector. Prior to 2020, the team invested heavily in high-yield debt (usually 10% to 20% of assets). Now, the team is limited to a 5% sleeve in high yield after a mandate change in January 2020. The team does not make interest-rate calls and historically has kept the strategy’s duration within 15% of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
- Still a barbell construct with heavy credit exposure.
The strategy’s barbell structure is composed of income-generating corporate bonds on one end and high-quality securitized fare and Treasuries for ballast on the other. As of March 2021, the strategy’s corporate credit allocation sat at 57% of assets, including a BBB rated stake (35%) and BB and below (4%) that was about 17 and 3 percentage points higher, respectively, than its typical intermediate core bond category peer. The team has historically focused on oilfield services and pipelines in its energy stake (about 4%), given their resilience in the face of commodity price drops. Financials have made up a consistent overweighting relative to the benchmark (11% versus 6%), with the team focusing on the debt of large banks with strong balance sheets. The ballast end of the barbell, composed of agency mortgage-backed security pass through (20%), U.S. Treasuries (15%), and asset backed securities (3%), has not seen major sector shifts since 2013.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Knights long-standing laser focus on network efficiency has served it well given the asset-intensive nature of trucking. Its legacy operating ratio (expenses/revenue, excluding fuel surcharges) averaged in the mid-80% range before the merger, versus an industry average that traditionally exceeds 90%. Within its legacy dry van truckload unit, Knight has long emphasized short- to medium-haul shipments (length of haul near 500 miles) and high-density lanes near its existing service centers. Regional freight is an attractive niche because shipments face less competition from intermodal and are seeing growth as shippers locate distribution centers closer to end customers.
In 2017, Knight Transportation and Swift Transportation merged. Following the transaction, Knight-Swift became the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the industry. Overall, we believe the merger structure was positive for previous shareholders because of meaningful cost and revenue synergy opportunities, which have proved to be within reach over the past few years.
Knight’s management has executed well in terms of applying its best-in-class operating acumen to Swift’s network. In fact, Swift’s adjusted truckload OR was roughly at parity with the Knight trucking division’s OR in first-quarter 2021. Pandemic lockdowns weighed on freight demand in early 2020, but retail shipments turned robust in the second half on strong inventory restocking, and industrial end markets are recovering off pandemic lows. Furthermore, truckload-market capacity has tightened materially and double-digit contract rate gains are likely this year.
Financial Strength
At the end of 2020, Knight-Swift held roughly $700 million of total debt on the balance sheet (including capital lease obligations, an accounts receivable securitization program, and a term loan), some of which stems from the former Swift operations. Recall truckload-industry giants Knight Transportation and Swift Transportation merged in September 2017. The firm held $157 million in cash on the balance sheet at year-end 2020, similar to 2019, with total available liquidity near $740 million. Management expects net capital expenditures of $450 million to $500 million in 2021, which we estimate will be around 10.4% of total revenue, compared with 9% in 2019.
Bull Says
- The 2017 Knight-Swift merger created meaningful opportunities for cost and revenue synergies that have thus far proved value accretive. The firm is also enjoying a demand surge from heavy retailer restocking that should last into the first half of 2021.
- The legacy Knight operations rank among the most efficient and profitable carriers in trucking, with an average operating ratio in the mid-80s prior to the merger.
- Knight has expanded its asset-light truck brokerage division at a healthy clip over the years, and these operations add incremental opportunities for long term growth.
Company Profile
Knight-Swift Transportation is by far the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the United States. About 80% of revenue derives from asset-based truckload shipping operations (including for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract). The remainder stems from truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services (8%), as well as intermodal (8%), which uses the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of the firm’s shipping containers and also offer drayage services.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.