Tag: US Market

Sustained strength abroad led us to revisit our international unit growth assumptions, pushing us to the low end of management’s 6%-8% guidance over the next few years (6.4%) and raising our fair value estimate to $410 per share from $386. However, we view the market’s reaction as overblown, with the shares trading up 14.5% at the time of writing against our 6.2% fair value estimate lift. The shares currently trade about 30% ahead of our fair value estimate.

In our view, the most impactful earnings discussion pertained to labor market pressure, with management indicating that restaurant margins (24.5%, up 60 basis points sequentially) were largely attributable to understaffing, as even the largest operators are struggling to attract workers in a historically tight hiring environment. The restaurant workforce remains about 10% smaller than its pre-pandemic level, and operators have increasingly leaned on wage hikes, benefits, signing bonuses, and operational efficiencies to fully staff stores. While we expect the best-capitalized operators with strong restaurant margins (like Domino’s) to best weather the storm, we forecast midterm labor costs 150 basis points higher than 2019 (normalized) levels, at 30.5% of restaurant sales.

The firm’s attention to car-side carryout looks strategically sound, with Domino’s using the channel to compete with quick-service drive-thrus without having to pursue more expensive real estate. The channel offers incremental sales, pushes the firm’s digital mix higher, and requires minimal involvement at the point of sale, alleviating pressure.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected that Domino’s to benefit from a shift toward lower cost fulfillment channels like the carryout business (and car side carryout) while continuing to automate noncore tasks like closing tills, managing inventory, and benefiting from optimized labor spending via predictive scheduling. Nonetheless, we remain encouraged by the firm’s long-term upside, with our revised forecast calling for 9.5% average system sales growth, 6% unit growth, and 11.5% EPS growth over the next five years.

Company Profile

Domino’s Pizza is a restaurant operator and franchiser with more than 17,800 stores across 90 countries. The firm generates revenue through the sales of pizza, wings, salads, and sandwiches at company-owned stores, royalty and marketing contributions from franchise-operated stores, and its network of 26 dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities, which centralize purchasing, preparation, and last-mile delivery for more than 6,800 units in the U.S. and Canada. With roughly $16 billion in 2020 system sales, Domino’s is the largest player in the global pizza market, ahead of Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Passenger revenue increased 105.8% from the previous quarter, the largest increase we’ve seen from U.S. network carrier this quarter, on a 44.4% increase in capacity, a 29.5% increase in load factors to 77.0% and a 10% increase in yield. These metrics remain 24.6%, 11.1%, and 11.4% below 2019 levels, respectively.

Management said business travel improved from roughly 20% of 2019 levels in March to 45% of 2019 levels in June and that much of the increase in demand was from travel within the West Coast. American has not traditionally had much of a presence in business travel on the West Coast, which suggests that the code sharing alliance that American initiated with Alaska Airlines is expanding American’s relevant market.

Company’s Future Outlook

There may be further upside to American’s share gains within business travel, as the firm initiated a code-sharing agreement with JetBlue, which has substantial share in the Northeast. Management said it expects 2022 CASM to be flat relative to 2019 levels, which is not as aggressive a target as peers have guided to. Since American is a domestically oriented airline and the domestic market has recovered faster than the international market, it is expected that the efficiency gains from restructuring should fall to the bottom line faster for American than for more internationally focused airlines as a larger proportion of the network would be in place in 2022.

Company profile

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.