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Palo Alto Networks : Platform Approach Resonating With Clients Across Network, Cloud, and Automation

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The complexity of an entity’s threat management increases as the quantity of data and traffic being generated off-premises grows. Network security can be attacked from various angles, and we posit that security will remain a top concern for all enterprises and governments, which bodes well for Palo Alto and its peers. Security point solutions were traditionally purchased to combat the latest threats, and IT teams had to manage various vendors’ products simultaneously, which leads us to believe that IT teams are clamoring for security consolidation to manage disparate solutions. Core to Palo Alto’s technology is its security operating platform, which provides centralized security management. We believe the ability to add technologies via subscriptions in the Palo Alto framework can alleviate complications by providing more holistic security, which can generate sustainable demand.

We expect that Palo Alto will continue to outpace its security peers by focusing on providing solutions in areas like cloud security and automation. Palo Alto’s concerted efforts into machine learning, analytics, and automated responses could make its products indispensable within customer networks. Although we expect Palo Alto to remain acquisitive and dedicated to organic innovation, we believe significant operating leverage will be gained throughout the coming decade as recurring subscription and support revenue streams flow from its expansive customer base.

Adding on modules to Palo Alto’s security platform could win greenfield opportunities and increase spending from existing customers.

Palo Alto could showcase great operating margin leverage as it moves from brand creation into a perennial cybersecurity leader. Winning bids should be less costly as the incumbent, and we think Palo Alto is typically on the short list of potential vendors.

The company is segueing into high-growth areas to supplement its firewall leadership. Analytics and machine learning capabilities could separate Palo Alto’s offerings.

The large public cloud vendors are developing security suites that may be preferred over those of a pure-play security supplier. If these companies offer products outside their data centers, Palo Alto may be stuck with niche applications and on-premises products.

Palo Alto competitors are also offering consolidated platforms, which could make displacing competitors more challenging.

Cloud and software-based startups could disrupt Palo Alto’s high-growth plans. The market for acquiring bolt-on firms could be hotly contested, and Palo Alto could miss out on the next big technology.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Expert Insights Shares Small Cap

Canopy Offers Attractive Investment Exposure to the U.S

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Although we expect the medical market to shrink as consumers turn to the recreational market, we forecast more than 10% average annual growth for the entire Canadian market through 2030, driven by the conversion of black-market consumers into the legal market and new cannabis consumers.

Canopy also exports medical cannabis globally. The global market looks lucrative, given higher prices and growing acceptance of cannabis’ medical benefits. Exporters must pass strict regulations to enter markets, protecting early entrants like Canopy. Partially offsetting the global markets’ potential for Canadian producers are threats of future production from countries with cheaper labor— the single largest cost. However, many Canadian companies have pulled back expansion plans given ongoing cash burn. We forecast around 15% average annual growth through 2030.

Besides hemp, Canadian companies typically have no U.S. operations, given legal limitations. However, Canopy has a standing deal to acquire Acreage Holdings, a U.S. multistate operator, immediately upon federal legalization. We thought Canopy paid a good price and acquired an attractive option for an accelerated entry into the U.S. Canopy also owns 27% of U.S. multistate operator Terrascend on a fully diluted basis. The U.S. market is murky, with some states legalizing recreational or medical cannabis while it remains illegal federally. We expect that federal law will be changed to recognize states’ choices on legality within their borders. Based on our state-by-state analysis, we forecast nearly 20% average annual growth for the U.S. recreational market and nearly 10% for the medical market through 2030.

Constellation Brands owns 38.6% of Canopy with additional securities that could push ownership to 55.8%. We see the investment as supportive of developing branded cannabis consumer products while also providing a funding backstop and foothold into the U.S. non-THC market.

Company Profile

Canopy Growth, headquartered in Smiths Falls, Canada, cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis, and hemp, through a portfolio of brands that include Tweed, Spectrum Therapeutics, and CraftGrow. Although it primarily operates in Canada, Canopy has distribution and production licenses in more than a dozen countries to drive expansion in global medical cannabis and also holds an option to acquire Acreage Holdings upon U.S. federal cannabis legalization.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.               

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Funds Funds

Devon Trans-Tasman Fund

Willis and Robertson are supported by the Devon investment team of Chris Glaskin (portfolio manager), Mark Brown (portfolio manager/ chief investment officer), Victoria Harris (sustainability portfolio manager), and two investment analysts. The investment team is tight-knit and possesses valuable experience and knowledge. In addition, Willis undertakes considerable company visits and management meetings in New Zealand and Australia. However, during the past few years, there have been some missteps in stock selection and portfolio construction that have prevented the fund from outperforming its index and peers. Issues have included limited exposure to some of the largest and best-performing New Zealand stocks. We believe the good quality research and portfolio construction we had come to expect from Devon had declined relative to peers. However, during 2020, the highly experienced Slade Robertson restructured and reinvigorated the team by hiring a sustainability portfolio manager and two additional analysts; he also became co-portfolio manager of this strategy. Robertson had been portfolio manager of the fund up until 2015.

The process is straightforward and repeatable, with an emphasis on fundamental bottom-up research. The team searches for companies with sustainable earnings, high return on capital, good cash conversion, and low capital expenditure. A benchmark-agnostic high-conviction approach is adopted when constructing the growth-orientated portfolio of 25-35 stocks, which often contains mid- to small-cap companies. Despite recent solid performance, on a trailing returns basis, the strategy has fallen behind equity region Australasia Morningstar Category peers the category index (50% S&P/NZX 50 Index and 50% S&P/ASX 200 Index) over the trailing three and five years to 30 April 2021.

Devon seeks to identify Australasian companies with the ability to produce strong returns on invested capital. Devon generates investment ideas through its fundamental research process and draws on its team members’ extensive experience. The team travels extensively to obtain an understanding of businesses and to determine the intrinsic value of companies. A healthy travel budget accommodates this, whether it is for company visitation, investment conferences, or idea generation.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Philosophy Technical Picks

Incitec Pivot Key Considerations

Growth is driven by mineral commodities volumes and quarrying. Fertilisers are a cyclical business, and despite a strong domestic market position, earnings are volatile and subject to competition from imports. Demand for fertilisers could, however, increase to meet growing food requirement from Asia. The balance sheet was somewhat stretched, but cash flow is increasing since the Louisiana ammonia plant ramped up in 2017.

Key Points

• Incitec Pivot offers growth prospects linked to demand for mineral commodities. Earnings from explosives are expected to grow based on an organic growth strategy.

• Fertiliser earnings are volatile and driven by international market pricing. The impact on group earnings diminishes as the explosives business grows but continues to weigh on overall returns.

• The key risk for Incitec Pivot is that a weak global economic environment could lead to lower mining volumes and/or a collapse in fertiliser prices.

• Investors enjoy bumper dividends at peak cycle times.

• Continued growth of the explosives business will reduce earnings volatility.

• Over the longer term, explosives earnings are favourably leveraged to mining volumes rather than prices, and mine strip ratios are expected to increase over time.

• Fertiliser prices are volatile, leading to earnings volatility. Incitec Pivot has no pricing power in this market.

• Incitec Pivot built the Louisiana ammonia plant at at time when demand is likely to fall.

The main downside risks are related to excessive falls in fertiliser and explosives prices that inevitably occur from time to time. Since the Dyno Nobel acquisition, there is more currency risk, but Incitec Pivot has an active hedging program, including the use of U.S.-dollar-denominated debt. Explosives earnings are also subject to mining sector demand and a slowdown in resources volumes will hurt earnings. As the firm manufactures hazardous chemicals, leakages are a potential risk, and unplanned plant shutdowns can mean lost earnings. Earnings volatility will reduce as the proportion of earnings from explosives increases, but we regardless have a high uncertainty rating on Incitec Pivot.

(Source: Morningstar)
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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights Shares

Bank of Nova Scotia Revenue Growth

Its domestic operations are more concentrated in mortgages and auto lending, with leading market share in autos. The bank has been expanding its domestic wealth operations significantly with its acquisitions of MD Financial and Jarislowsky Fraser, making it the third-largest active manager in Canada. The bank has also been making multiple acquisitions in its Latin America footprint as it attempts to consolidate better share within the area.

The international exposure gives the bank the potential for higher growth and return opportunities compared with peers, but it also exposes the bank to more risks. While Latin America has been more stable in the past decade, there are risks that this may not continue. A return to political instability, higher credit losses, and inflation arguably all have higher likelihoods in these emerging markets than for Canada. The unique risks surrounding Latin America’s bounce back from COVID-19 are also worth considering.

After numerous acquisitions, the bank is in the middle of rationalizing its many back-end systems and improving efficiency bankwide. The bank’s original goal was to have an efficiency ratio of 50% by the end of 2021; however, we think this will be delayed, given the less positive economic backdrop caused by COVID-19. We like the bank’s digital efforts. While all banks in Canada are engaged in similar ongoing investments, Scotiabank has been spending the most on its technology and communication expenses. We think these efforts will ultimately pay off in the form of improved operating efficiency, customer engagement, and internal sales coordination. This leads us to believe that returns on tangible equity near 15% are sustainable over the longer term for the bank.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a global financial services provider. The bank has five business segments: Canadian banking, international banking, global wealth management, global banking and markets, and other. It offers a range of advice, products, and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. The bank’s international operations span numerous countries and are more concentrated in Central and South America.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

Bega Cheese- Delivers Robust Earnings

Bega benefited from consumer stockpiling and an associated reduction in promotional activity amid the pandemic. The firm was able to leverage production capacity to meet demand quicke than competitors, achieving market share gains in spreads. However, this was offset by a decline in demand for wholesale food products, bulk ingredients, and disruptions to export market supply chains. Underlying EBITDA margins deteriorated to 6.9% from 7.4% in the prior period, which we attribute to elevated input costs, operating inefficiencies and unfavourable mix shift.

Nonetheless, we expect COVID-19 headwinds to be a shortterm issue for Bega, and the outlook for input cost pricing is improving due to more favourable conditions. We forecast operating margins to expand to 6% by fiscal 2025 (on a post AASB 16 basis) from less than 4% in fiscal 2020, underpinned by process optimisation and cost out initiatives. But we expect further margin expansion to be somewhat limited by Bega’s powerful supermarket customer base, and continued substantial contribution from the dairy category despite the firm’s strategic shift towards becoming a diversified branded consumer packaged food business.

We forecast a revenue CAGR of 6% over the five years to fiscal 2025, underpinned by mid-single-digit growth in the branded foods business, low-single-digit growth in the bulk foods business and inflationary price growth. We forecast per capita cheese consumption to remain stable, implying demand will grow in line with population growth.

Bega’s balance sheet is in sound financial health. Leverage, measured as net debt/underlying EBITDA, improved to 2.35 in fiscal 2020 from 2.75 in fiscal 2019, which is comfortably below covenants. Bega utilised robust operating cash flow and effective working capital management to reduce net debt over the period. We expect leverage to improve to sub-1.0 by fiscal 2025 as earnings improve, working capital unwinds and capital expenditure normalises. We anticipate Bega will have the balance sheet capacity to explore potential bolt-on acquisitions and partake in industry rationalisation, although the timing and scale of further acquisitions is uncertain. Regardless, we expect Bega will maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% normalised EPS.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Tenneco stock ride performance products and systems for light vehicle

× In our opinion, Tenneco stock valuation has been unfairly punished because of the high level of debt after the Federal-Mogul acquisition; the postponement of the separation of DRiV, which implies previously unanticipated integration challenges; as well as transient operating environment and cost issues.

× The company has demonstrated an ability to perform in an unfavorable operating environment while carrying a high debt burden. In 2008 and 2009, total debt/EBITDA exceeded 4.0 times. In 2009, the stock hit a low of $0.70. Since then, shares have traded as high as $68.71 (2016), and total debt/EBITDA reached a low of 1.6 (2014). At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the credit metric was 3.5 times.

× Our forecast assumes 1% pro forma average annual revenue growth from 2017 (the year before the Federal-Mogul acquisition) to 2023 versus a 4% 10-year historical growth rate for old Tenneco. Our Stage I EBITDA margin assumptions average 9.7%, with a normalized sustainable midcycle of 9.6%.

× During the past 10-years, Tenneco’s high, low, and median EBITDA margins have been 9.6%, 7.3%, and 9.1%. In 2017, including targeted $200 million integration cost savings and adding $50 million for public company costs for the eventual spin-off of DRiV, we estimate pro forma EBITDA margin would have been 10.4% versus Tenneco’s as-reported 9.4%.

× We estimate that for our model to generate a fair value equivalent to the sell-side consensus estimate and the current market valuation, investors would have to believe midcycle EBITDA margins of 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively.

Tenneco Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells clean air, powertrain, and ride performance products and systems for light vehicle, commercial truck, off-highway, industrial, and aftermarket customers worldwide. The company operates through Clean Air, Powertrain, Ride Performance, and Motorparts segments. It offers clean air products and systems, including catalytic converters and diesel oxidation catalysts; diesel particulate filters(DPFs); burner systems; lean nitrogen oxide (NOx) traps; selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems; hydrocarbon vaporizers and injectors; SCR-coated diesel particulate filters systems; urea dosing systems; four-way catalysts; alternative NOx reduction technologies; mufflers and resonators; fabricated exhaust manifolds; pipes; hydroformed assemblies; elastomeric hangers and isolators; and aftertreatment control units. The company also provides powertrain products and systems, such as pistons; piston rings; cylinder liners; valve seats and guides; bearings; spark plugs; valvetrain products; system protection products; and seals and gaskets. In addition, it offers motor parts, including steering and suspension, braking, sealing, engine, emission, and maintenance products, as well as shocks and struts; and ride performance products and systems comprising advanced suspension technologies, and ride control and braking products, as well as noise, vibration, and harshness performance materials. The company was formerly known as Tenneco Automotive Inc. and changed its name to Tenneco Inc. in 2005.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Shares

Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd– Uncertainties Remain

While we expect cost control, plans to launch smaller package sizes at higher prices per litre, and an increasing line up of non-carbonated drinks, we forecast volume declines in soft drinks and a negative mix shift from reduced on-the-go sales to drive a double-digit decline in EPS in 2020. Nonetheless, we’re encouraged by the firm’s continued market share gains, and expect earnings growth to rebound in 2021 and beyond. On top of this organic outlook, Amatil has received a non-binding offer to take over the company from fellow bottler CCEP at an attractive price. Uncertainty remains, but we think there is a strong change the deal progresses.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Coca-Cola Amatil is facing declining carbonated beverage consumption and heightened bottled water competition in its core Australian market, which will likely limit the firm’s near-term pricing power. Despite challenges in mainstream soft drinks, Amatil’s distribution deals with third parties, growth opportunities in emerging markets, and launches of smaller package sizes should drive positive annual revenue gains.
  • Amatil aims to pay out more than 80% of its annual earnings in dividends, and we forecast a low-single-digit growth pace. We expect dividends will remain unfranked until 2021, after which we see franking at 50%.
  • Coca-Cola Amatil’s long-standing relationship with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) and a solid distribution network and retailer relationships in Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, afford the beverage bottler sustainable brand intangible assets and a cost advantage versus its competitors and potential upstarts. However, health-led headwinds in developed markets will likely drive further pressure on Amatil’s carbonated beverage portfolio.
  • The Coca-Cola Company’s nearly 31% ownership in Coca-Cola Amatil solidifies the relationship between the parent company and bottler, and an upcoming shift to incidence-based pricing should further align the firms’ goals.
  • Indonesia is a major long-run growth opportunity for Amatil, given the country’s continued economic development and relatively low rate of packaged beverage consumption.
  • Amatil has opportunities to increase its asset utilisation through additional distribution partnerships, such as recent deals struck with Monster Energy, Molson Coors, and Restaurant Brands.
  • Developments such as container return schemes in NSW and other Australian states, and potential sugary beverage taxes, serve as a price increase for consumers, and likely accelerate the decline of CSD volumes in Australia.
  • Pricing has been dented by both competitors and customers; Amatil has driven costs out of its production system, but a continued inability to pass through raw material inflation to consumers presents a long-term challenge.
  • The Coca-Cola Company owns the rights to Amatil’s major brands, and could negatively alter the pricing consideration for beverage concentrate purchasing.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology One Ltd – Critics With Cash Flow Jump

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Since the firm turned profitable in 1992, earnings growth has been impressive, as is the track record of client retention. All this testifies to the quality of the company’s products, the benefits of its consistent research and development spending, and the strength of its staff and management. Critically, the nature of enterprise software and its intricate embedding into clients’ technology infrastructure are such that switching costs are very high, something that Technology One has further enhanced through its end-to-end solutions offering and track record of quality delivery.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Technology One offers enterprise software solutions that are deeply embedded in clients’ information technology, or IT, infrastructure, resulting in high switching costs for users.
  • The company generates revenue from software development and implementation, along with subsequent upgrades and ongoing support, providing revenue resilience and an impressive client retention rate. OAlthough the company operates in a highly competitive industry, its earnings growth track record since turning profitable in 1992 has been exemplary and testifies to the quality of the company’s products and staff.
  • Technology One is a provider of Enterprise Resource Planning, or ERP, software in Australia and the United Kingdom. The company has an excellent track record of consistent revenue, NPAT, EPS, and franked dividend growth over the past 30 years, and the asset light nature of the company has supported strong cash generation and a consistently strong balance sheet.
  • Technology One’s business model captures value in the entire software development and implementation chain. It develops and markets the software, implements the solution for clients, and offers ongoing subsequent support.
  • The company’s software products are embedded in customers’ business operations, locking in existing clients and underpinning recurring revenue streams in post-sales support and licence fees.
  • Cross-selling opportunities remain, as products taken up per customer are low at three, compared with 12 available in Technology One’s enterprise product suite.
  • Skills shortages in the information technology sector mean the loss of key personnel can be costly, and bidding for talent may drive up labour expense.
  • Development delays with new products and failure to keep pace with technological changes could significantly affect Technology One’s ability to compete in the fast-moving enterprise software industry.
  • Failure of the international expansion strategy in the United Kingdom could dent the company’s longer-term growth profile.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Kellogg Company Benefited From Pandemic-Related Gains

Stock market information

Kellogg’s dividend growth has been modest over the past five years, at an annualized rate of 2.9%. However, Morningstar analysts anticipate a higher rate going forward: “We forecast Kellogg will raise the shareholder dividend in the mid-single-digit range annually on average during the next 10 years.”

In their Best Ideas report, the analysts made the following case for the stock, which trades at an 18% discount to fair value: “Kellogg has benefited from pandemic-related gains in the retail channel (which drives 90% of its sales) as consumers continue to spend more time at home. Even before the pandemic, we thought Kellogg was taking steps to profitably reignite its top-line trajectory: abandoning direct-store distribution in favor of warehouse delivery, divest-ing noncore fare and stock-keeping units, and upping investments in its manufacturing capabilities and brands.

Although we expect more muted gains over a longer horizon, we think the company is using the current backdrop to sharpen its edge.

“We believe actions to expand its category exposure beyond cereal (with 50% of sales now from on-trend snacks versus 20% from North American cereal) will prop up its sales growth potential longer term. Further, we like the changes to its pack formats to include more on-the-go offerings, which should allow for increased penetration in alternative outlets. We also think recent acquisitions (including smaller, niche startups like RXBAR) afford the opportunity to grease the wheels of Kellogg’s innovation cycle to more nimbly respond to ever-changing consumer trends as they relate to health and wellness and taste.”

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.