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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

PepsiCo Inc Prioritizes Spending to Support Its Brands and Its Advantaged Platform

cola cans and advertisements praising the brand’s taste superiority over Coke. While, as of now PepsiCo is not only considered as beverage behemoth but its its business now extends beyond this industry, with Frito-Lay and Quaker products accounting for over half of sales and over 65% of profits. A diversified portfolio across snacks and beverages can be considered as competitive edge of PepsiCo.

After years of sluggish sales growth and underinvestment, Pepsi has committed to reinvigorating its top line. To that end, it has made significant investments in manufacturing capacity (for example, production lines to meet demand for reformulated packaging), system capacity (route optimization and sales technology), and productivity (harmonization and automation.

These investments can be considered as prudent as they will allow the company to strengthen its key trademarks such as Mountain Dew and Gatorade while deepening its presence in growth markets like sub-Saharan Africa, and also yielding enough cost savings to reinvest and widen profits. Pepsi’s growth trajectory is not without risk, as the company faces secular headwinds such as shifts in consumer behavior. Additionally, changing go-to-market dynamics, such as online commerce that encourages real-time price comparisons and obviates the extent of Pepsi’s retail distribution advantage, allow for more nimble and aggressive competition.

Financial Strength

Pepsi’s financial health can be considered as excellent. While leverage has ticked up due to recent acquisitions the company still has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and robust free cash flow generation. Strong interest coverage ratios also lend credence to the firm’s health in this regard. For the year2020, PespiCo has reported revenue of USD Mil 70,372 while its estimated revenue for the year 2021 is USD Mil 76,632 which is up by 8.9% compared to the previous year. The firm in the year 20220 has reported EBIT of USD Mil 10,080 while its estimated EBIT in the year 2021 is USD Mil 11,746 which is 16.5% up compare to the previous year.The firm has reported free cash flow USD Mil 584 which is 83.8% down compared to the previous year. The major reason for the same is PepsiCo has ramped up strategic investments across the business and booked a slew of nonrecurring cash charge.

Bulls Say

  • In still beverages- a category facing fewer secular challenges, particularly in the U.S.-Pepsi is a much more formidable competitor to Coca-Cola.
  • Pepsi’s global dominance in salty snacks may be underappreciated; with volume share more than 10 times that of the next-largest competitor, the firm benefits from unparalleled unit economics and go-to market optionality.
  • The firm’s consolidated beverage and snack distribution operations, combined with its direct store delivery capabilities, allow for better execution in merchandising.

Company Profile

PepsiCo is one of the largest food and beverage companies globally. It makes, markets, and sells a slew of brands across the beverage and snack categories, including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Doritos, Lays, and Ruffles. The firm uses a largely integrated go-to-market model, though it does leverage third-party bottlers, contract manufacturers, and distributors in certain markets. In addition to company-owned trademarks, Pepsi manufactures and distributes other brands through partnerships and joint ventures with companies such as Starbucks. The firm segments its operations into five primary geographies, with North America (comprising Frito-Lay North America, Quaker Foods North America, and North America beverages) constituting over 60% of consolidated revenue

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Afterpay on rapid growth with stagnant loss in fiscal year 2021

Investment Thesis:

  • With over 16 million customers and over 98,000 retail partnerships, Afterpay have the benefit of being the first mover .
  • APT and clients can profit from their data (potentially introduce data mining services).
  • Vertical expansion.
  • New revenue streams and new opportunities to drive revenue – Afterpay Money.
  • International expansion – both the U.S. and the UK are off to a solid start. The addressable market for online shopping in the United States is $630 billion dollars, whereas the market in the United Kingdom is $130 billion dollars. 
  • Additional opportunities are anticipated to arise as a result of the recently announced partnerships with Visa, Squarespace, and Stripe.
  • Strong management team.

Key Risks:

  • High valuation will lead to de-rating and thereby creating miss expectation in growth rates.
  • Expansion into new verticals disappoints management and market expectations.
  • Execution risk with international expansion.
  • Increased competition from major player(s).
  •  Increased regulation. 
  • Significant data breach.
  •  Deal with Square Inc fails to complete.

Key highlights of FY21:  Relative to the pcp:( The abbreviation for p.c.p is previous corresponding period . Herein, the year 2020 is considered as p.c.p)

  • Group total income was up by 78% to $924.7m, consisting of Afterpay up by 90% to $822.3m, Pay Now down by 16% to $13.8m and Other income up +29% to $88.6m.
  • The gross loss of Afterpay as % of underlying sales unchanged at 0.9%in the year 2021.
  • Group reported net margin of $443.3m which was up by 70%.
  • Afterpay reported net margin of $434.1m up by 74 % while its net transaction loss margin was 0.6 % (up from 0.4 percent), and net margin as a percentage of underlying sales was 2.1 percent (down from 2.3 percent), impacted by lower margin from newer international regions that are still in the early stages of their lifecycle.
  • Despite increased underlying sales and contribution from new territories, the Afterpay income margin of 3.9 percent remained steady over the pcp, with merchant income margins largely stable across all regions.
  • Due to increased marketing and talent expenditure, the group’s underlying operating profitability (EBITDA) fell by 13 % to $38.7 million. The loss after tax increased to $159.4 million from $22.9 million owing principally to an increase in the valuation of the ClearPay UK minority investment.
  • Management continues to invest heavily in the company in order to expand into new markets and raise brand awareness. Employment expenses increased by 75% year over year to $150.9 million, while operational expenses increased by 104 percent to $298.6 million.
  • APT has plenty of cash, with management claiming that it has the capacity to support an additional $40 billion in underlying sales on top of its existing annualised run rate of $24 billion.

 APT and Square Inc announced a Scheme Implementation Deed on August 2nd, under which Square Inc will purchase all of APT’s outstanding shares in a transaction valued at $39 billion at the time. . The deal is expected to finalise in the first quarter of FY22.

Company Profile

Afterpay Ltd (APT) is an Australian-based technology-driven payments company. The Afterpay and Touch products and businesses are part of APT. The company’s business model is “purchase now, take now, pay later.” Merchants sign up for Afterpay, which allows their retail customers to pay in four equal instalments, interest-free. APT pays merchants up front and assumes the credit and fraud risk upon themselves. Customers can pay with a debit or credit card (Visa/Mastercard) — as a result, APT views banks and credit card companies as collaborators rather than rivals. Merchants benefit because they may increase sales to customers who would otherwise be unable to afford large purchases in one go.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Whispir’s strong FY21 results seems positive for the stock

Investment Thesis

  • Sizeable market opportunity – in the U.S. alone WSP TAM is US$4.7bn (WSP North American target markets) vs total U.S. CPaaS TAM of US$98bn.
  • Established a solid foundation to build from – the Company has over 800 customers worldwide with leading brand names.  
  • Structural tailwinds – ongoing automation and digitization. 
  • Increasing direct sales penetration.
  • Attractive recurring revenue base via subscriptions. 
  • Investment in R&D to continue developing the Company’s competitive position and enhance value proposition with customers.   

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Rising competitive pressures.
  • Growth disappoints the market, given the company trades on high valuation multiples – growth in subscriptions, new customers and penetration of existing clients. 
  • Product innovation stalls and fails to resonate with customers. 
  • Emergence of new competitors and technology.
  • Key channel partnerships breakdown.

FY21 key trading metrics 

  • FY21 ARR (annualized recurring revenue) was up +28.5% to $53.6m, driven by increased spending by installed customer base and addition of new customers. Recurring revenue is now at 96.7%.
  • Customer revenue retention was 115.9%, with management noting that whilst customers may initially engage for single communication solutions, once implemented with operational processes, management find that new applications / use cases across client’s organization. 
  • Over the year, WSP added 171 net new customers (up +27% YoY), bringing total customer numbers to 801. An attractive component of WSP’s solution is the Company’s “low code-no code” platform, which easily integrates with existing inhouse client IT systems and can be deployed within hours. This is one of our key competitive advantages.
  • New customer acquisition costs were down more than 50% due to higher sales efficiency and a growing proportion of digital direct sales (self-discovering the platform). 
  • LTV / CAC (ratio of lifetime value to customer acquisition costs) improved to 26.1x (from 23.7x). 
  • Gross revenue churn (3 month average) at Jun-21 was 2.4%.

Company Description  

Whispir Ltd (WSP), founded in 2001, is a global enterprise software-as-a-service (SasS) company. WSP provides a communications workflow platform that automates interactions between businesses and people. The Company has over 800 customers, operates in 60 countries and more than 200 staff globally. WSP operates in an emerging subset of the enterprise communications SaaS market known as Workflow Communications-as-a-Service (WCaaS). WSP currently solves two communication problems: (1) Operational Messaging – engaging with employees; and (2) External Messaging – engaging with customers. WSP operates in 3 key markets – Operational messaging (size $8bn), API messaging (size $32bn) and Marketing messages (size $66bn).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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ETFs ETFs

BetaShares ETF to allow investors to invest in Companies identified as Climate Leaders

Investment Objective

ETHI aims to track index performance (before fees and expenses), which includes a range of large global stocks that have also passed screens to exclude firms with direct or significant exposure to fossil fuels or which have been engaged in activities that are considered inconsistent with responsible investment considerations. ETHI is responsible for the monitoring of the index.

Investment Strategy

  • The fund offers investors the chance to link their ethical values with their interests. 
  • ETHI integrates a wide range of ESG criteria with positive climate leadership screens, providing an authentic ethical investment approach.
  • ETHI holds a diversified portfolio from a range of worldwide locations of major, sustainable, ethical enterprises.

Portfolio Objective

  • Provide diversified exposure to globally listed ethical shares.
  • Prefer companies classified as “climate leaders”.
  • True to designate the methodology of ethical investment.

Positives 

  • Shares, currencies, and markets are all used to diversify.
  • Exposure to international ethical shares at a low cost
  • Distributions are made on a semi-annual basis.

Negatives 

  • Share market volatility may cause the portfolio value to fluctuate during the holding period. 
  • It is more concentrated in comparison and it excludes major market sector that may experience strong returns. 
  • Fund may changes their cost and fees. 

Company Profile 

BetaShares is a well-known manager of ETFs and other funds traded on the ASX.  The company was founded in 2009 and now has over 60 products available, all of which can be bought and sold on the ASX.  The company seeks to offer investors simple, liquid, and cost-effective access to Australian and global shares, cash and fixed income, currencies, commodities, and active and alternative strategies. 

ETF Performance…

Figure 1: Fund performance as at 31 July 2021

(%)FundBenchmark
1-month+3.74 %+3.79%
3-months+11.26%+11.44%
6-months+21.98%+22.25%
1-year +35.34%+35.89%
3-year (p.a.)+25.60%+26.21%
Since Inception (p.a.)+23.43%+23.92%

Source:BetaShares

ETF Positioning…

Figure 2: Top ten holdings

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Afterpay’s Milestones over FY21 Illustrate It Has Much to Offer Square

The fair value estimate of Afterpay is at AUD 113 per share.  The company’s valuation assumes a 75% chance the acquisition will proceed to completion at AUD 126 per share, which is based off Square’s share price at the time of offer. 

Square’s deal to buy Afterpay looks like another move to push Square’s business model closer to that of PayPal and strengthen the bonds between its Cash App and seller businesses to create a more fleshed-out two-sided platform. The firm intends to amass Afterpay’s 16.2 million (and growing) highly-engaged shoppers and 98,200 merchant partners (most of which are large enterprises) as selling points to attract more merchants and customers. Incorporating Afterpay’s features into Square’s own offerings (and vice versa) also further enhances the product proposition to users.

The quality of Afterpay’s shoppers is well known. Not only is the number of shoppers growing, but spend per customer is rising–in fiscal 2021, more than 93% of underlying sales were made by repeat customers, while its top 10 customers (by sales) now spend 34 times per year, up 21% from a year ago. Quantitatively, the value Afterpay brings to merchants is reflected in rapid signup of merchants to the platform and the margins merchants can afford to (and are willing to) pay–merchant margins were unchanged from the prior year at 3.9% in fiscal 2021.

Company’s Future Outlook

The buy now, pay later, or BNPL, firm expects its acquisition by Square to close in the first quarter of 2022, with a scheme booklet due to be dispatched in September 2021. It is believed Afterpay’s strategy in moving beyond just extending credit to playing a larger role in a customer’s lifecycle (such as via Afterpay Money) should help dissuade customers from switching to an alternate finance provider and subsequently, entrench the durability of its growing network

Company Profile

Afterpay started its buy now, pay later, or BNPL, financing product in calendar 2015, listed on the ASX in May 2016 and merged with Touchcorp (who designed and built Afterpay’s platform software) in June 2017. Its BNPL platform allows consumers to make acquisitions at merchant partners by paying installments every two weeks. If consumers pay on time, they transact on Afterpay for free. Afterpay primarily generates revenue from receiving a margin from the merchant. Afterpay pays the merchant the full purchase price immediately on the sale, less this margin. The margin compensates Afterpay for accepting all non-payment risk, including credit risk and fraud by the consumer, and for encouraging consumers to purchase greater dollar values and transact more frequently.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights Shares

Woolworths Screens as Overvalued

operating supermarkets and discount department stores. Market capitalization is around AUD 50 billion, with annual sales of over AUD 50 billion. The fair value estimate for narrow-moat Woolworths is AUD 24. The board declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 1.08 for the full fiscal year 2021, equating to a payout ratio of 69%.

Woolworths has a narrow economic moat, characterized by an extensive supermarket store network, serviced by an efficient supply chain operation coupled with significant buying power. It operates in the very competitive supermarket and discount department store segments of the retail sector. Intense competition has taken its toll on margins. Management has reset prices lower to drive foot traffic and increase basket sizes. Volume growth is vital for maximizing supply chain efficiencies.

Australian food sales of over AUD 40 billion represented about 15% of total Australian retail sales in fiscal 2021. The percentage increases substantially if sales are strictly comparable. 

Financial Strength

Woolworths is in a strong financial position with solid gearing metrics. At the end of fiscal 2021, the balance sheet was conservatively geared and EBITDA covered interest expenses 7 times. After the AUD 2 billion share buyback, Woolworth’s investment-grade credit rating is expected to be the same. Woolworths generates large cash flow with significant negative working capital. Cash flow comfortably finances capital expenditure. The balance sheet is robust, and acquisitions are generally bolt-on and funded with cash or existing debt facilities.

Woolworths is well positioned to withstand cyclically weak consumer spending. Woolworths is a defensive stock, with food retailing generating most of group revenue and profit, a solid balance sheet, and a narrow moat surrounding its economic profits. Woolworths last traded price was 40.99 AUD, whereas its fair value is 24 AUD, which makes it an overvalued stock. As per the analysts, the group’s operating earnings will shrink by about a quarter in fiscal 2022 with the demerger of Endeavour.

Bull Says

  • Woolworths’ dominant position in the supermarket sector is entrenched and, coupled with first-class management, suggests that it can maintain leadership in the sector.
  • Woolworths’ operating leverage could lead to a rebound in operating margins, driving cash generation that funds expansion and acquisitions while allowing capital-management initiatives.
  • The refurbishing of the existing supermarket fleet and rollout of revised store formats, with significantly improved service, convenience and product offerings could increase store productivity and lead to higher sales growth.

Company Profile

Woolworths is Australia’s largest retailer. Operations include supermarkets in Australia and New Zealand, and the Big W discount department stores. The Australian food division constitutes the majority of group EBIT, followed by New Zealand supermarkets, while Big W is a minor contributor.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

WiseTech FVE Under Review Following Stronger Than Expected Fiscal 2021 Result and Outlook

The firm reported revenue of AUD 508 million which was in line with our AUD 510 million forecast. However, fiscal 2021 EBITDA of AUD 207 million was 22% above our AUD 170 million forecast. Underlying NPAT of 108 million was 19% above our forecast. Management’s comments indicate this margin improvement is unlikely to be lost as the pandemic subsides, as will be the case for some other ASX listed technology companies.

For fiscal 2022, the revenue expected to be between AUD 600 and 635 million as per management provided earnings guidance which is only 5% above our forecasts. However, the EBITDA guidance range of AUD 260 to 285 million is 32% above our forecast. 

Prior to the result, our forecasts assumed a 21% underlying EPS CAGR over the next decade and a terminal P/E multiple of 19. However, over the past seven years, WiseTech’s revenue has grown at a CAGR of 34% and the shares have traded on a P/E multiple of around 100. However, we can achieve a fair value equal to the current market price of AUD 46.50 if we assume an EPS CAGR of 27% over the next decade and a terminal P/E ratio of 27. We will consider the feasibility of such a scenario while the stock is under review.

The company also has a very high customer retention rate and a high and growing proportion of revenue is recurring. These attributes, combined with the very large addressable market and scalable and cash generative business model, means WiseTech has a very strong earnings growth outlook and an incredibly strong balance sheet.

The WiseTech share price initially rose by 58% on the day of the result before falling back to a 28% gain by the close of trading. We expect the share price jump reflects the market’s surprise at the strength of the result and outlook, in addition to the relatively low free float. The intraday volatility also reflects the uncertainty associated with the high-growth earnings outlook, whereby small differences in investor assumptions can have a large impact on the intrinsic value.

Company Profile

WiseTech is a leading global provider of logistics software, and 19 of the largest 20 third-party logistics companies are customers of the firm. The company has a very strong customer retention rate of over 99% per year, and is growing quickly as its global SaaS platform replaces legacy software. The company reinvests around 30% of revenue into research and development, but around 50% of this cost is capitalised, leading to poor cash conversion. Founder Richard White remains CEO and the largest shareholders.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Edison remains in Top Utilities Sector & Win Regulatory Support

and operating challenges for utilities like Edison International. But California’s aggressive clean energy goals also offer Edison more growth opportunities than most utilities. Edison’s plans for $5 billion of annual capital investment and good regulatory support will generate 6% annual earnings growth beyond 2021. But this growth trajectory could be lumpy as regulatory delays, wildfire issues, and California energy policy changes lead to shifts in spending and cost recovery. 

New equity issuances in 2019 and 2020 in part to fund its $2.4 billion contribution to the state wildfire insurance fund and a higher allowed equity structure in rates weighed on earnings the last two years. But Edison now has most of its financing in place to execute its large growth plan, which ultimately will drive earnings and dividend growth.

Growth opportunities at Southern California Edison address grid safety, renewable energy, electric vehicles, distributed generation, and energy storage. Wildfire safety investments alone could reach $4 billion during the next four years. In August, regulators approved nearly all of Edison’s 2021-23 investment plans. Ongoing regulatory proceedings will address wildfire-specific investments and Edison’s 2024 investment plan. 

Financial Strength

Edison’s credit metrics are well within investment-grade range. California wildfire legislation and recent regulatory rulings have removed the overhang that threatened Edison’s investment-grade ratings in early 2019. Edison has kept its balance sheet strong with substantial equity issuances since 2019. Edison issued $2.4 billion of new equity throughout 2019 at prices in line with our fair value estimate. This financing supported both its growth investments and half of its $2.4 billion contribution to the California wildfire insurance fund. The new equity in 2019 also allowed Southern California Edison to adjust its allowed capital structure to 52% equity from 48% equity for ratemaking purposes, leading to higher revenues and partially offsetting the earnings dilution. The board approved a $0.10 per share annualized increase, or 4%, for 2021, the same increase as it approved for 2020. 

Bull Says

  • With some $5 billion of planned annual investment during the next four years, it is projected 6% average annual average earnings growth in 2021-24.
  • Edison has raised its dividend from $1.35 annualized in 2013 to $2.65 in 2021, demonstrating management’s commitment to meeting and maintaining a 45%-55% target payout ratio on utility earnings.
  • California’s focus on renewable energy, energy storage, and distributed generation should bolster Edison’s investment opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrades for many years.

Company Profile

Edison International is the parent company of Southern California Edison, an electric utility that supplies power to 5 million customers in a 50,000-square-mile area of Southern California, excluding Los Angeles. Edison Energy owns interests in nonutility businesses that deal in energy-related products and services. In 2014, Edison International sold its wholesale generation subsidiary Edison Mission Energy out of bankruptcy to NRG Energy.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

MFG’s reduced the performance fee for the FY21

Investment Thesis

  • Principal Investments have the potential to become a significant contributor to group performance in the medium- to long-term.
  • Due to the recent de-rating, MFG no longer trades at a significant premium to its peer group.
  • Acquisitions may help to pave growth runways, easing the Company’s fund capacity constraints.
  • The average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) remains stable, but fee pressures pose a risk to the downside (which is an industry trend not specific to MFG alone).
  • Strategic  growth performance, particularly in the global and infrastructure funds.
  • Increasing amounts of money are being managed.
  • New strategies could significantly increase the addressable market and aid in the maintenance of earnings growth.

Key Risks 

  • Fund performance has declined.
  • The risk of potential fund outflows – both retail and institutional – (loss of a large mandate).
  • Acquisitions carry a high level of execution risk.
  • Crucial quality man risk exists in the immediate vicinity of Hamish Douglass and key management or investment management personnel.
  • New strategies fail to generate significant earnings for the group.

Key Result of FY21

  • Adjusted revenue was $699.1 million, largely unchanged from the prior year, with the Funds Management business continuing to perform well (management and service fees increased by 7% to $635.4 million).
  • Profit before tax and performance fees in the Funds Management business increased by 10% to $526.6 million, driven by a +9% increase in average FUM to $103.7 billion (total net inflows of $4.5 billion).
  • The Board declared a dividend of $1.141 per share (75 percent franked) for the six months ending 30 June 2021, consisting of a final dividend of $1.026 and a quality fee dividend for the year of $0.115 per share, bringing total dividend payouts for the year to $2.112 per share, down -2 percent over pcp, and announced a share buyback plan to allow stockholders to reinvest their dividends at a 1.5 cents rate.

Company Profile 

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (MFG) is a specialist funds management business. MFG’s core subsidiary, Magellan Asset Management Ltd, manages ~$53.6bn of funds under management across its global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies for retail, high net worth and institutional investors.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Excellent Third-Quarter Results for Bank of Montreal; Raising Our FVE to CAD 130/USD 103

BMO has a well-established Canadian banking presence, an established U.S. retail operation in the Midwest, and growing commercial and capital markets capabilities. BMO has the second-largest amount of assets under management among the Canadian banks, with the largest proportion of its revenue coming from wealth-management. Additionally, BMO has the lowest relative exposure to residential mortgage loans among its peers

Bank of Montreal has taken a step up in 2021, improving operating efficiency while growing fees and managing its interest rate exposure. We expect that the bank will remain a more efficient operation going forward.

Excellent Third-Quarter Results for Bank of Montreal; Raising Our FVE to CAD 130/USD 103

Bank of Montreal reported excellent fiscal third-quarter earnings, with EPS of CAD 3.44 representing solid year-over-year growth compared with adjusted EPS of CAD 1.85 last year and higher than last quarter’s EPS of CAD 3.13. Provisioning continues to be a major driver of improved earnings, coming in at a net benefit of CAD 70 million.Bank of Montreal’s fees continue to come in better than expected. 

Net income continued to be exceptional in the bank’s capital markets segment during the third quarter, tracking above CAD 500 million yet again as investment banking remained healthy while global markets-related revenue came back down a bit. The wealth segment also continued to report excellent results, with net income up another 15% sequentially, although growth in assets under management is starting to slow, up less than 1% sequentially. The more traditional banking segments at Bank of Montreal have continued to do fine, with Canadian P&C essentially fully recovered and back to pre pandemic revenue levels while U.S. P&C is feeling a bit more pressure from a CAD perspective due to shifting exchange rates

Credit costs remained solid. Provisioning continued to decline during the third quarter while the bank continues to hold excess reserves for future credit losses. Formations of impaired loans remained subdued, and overall gross impaired loans declined once again. Higher-risk loans due to the COVID-19 pandemic remained at just under 5% of total loans, which is very manageable.

 After decreasing our credit cost projections for 2021, decreasing certain expense line items, increasing some noninterest income items, and making some additional improvements to our balance sheet growth and net interest margin outlook, we have increased our fair value estimate to CAD 130/$103 per share from CAD 115/$94

Bulls Say

  • Growth and opportunities in the bank’s U.S. markets will outweigh any slowdown in its native Canada as U.S. subsidiaries gain market share.
  • Compared with its peers, BMO has a lower exposure to the Canadian housing market.
  • BMO’s presence in the Canadian ETF market should pay off as passive investment options gain share in Canada over the next decade.

Company Profile

Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial-services provider based in North America, operating four business segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, U.S. P&C banking, wealth management, and capital markets. The bank’s operations are primarily in Canada, with a material portion also in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.