Tag: Top Stories

Technology Stocks

ABC delivered 1H23 revenue growth of +8.4% y/y to $1.7bn

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date March 30, 2023
No Comments on ABC delivered 1H23 revenue growth of +8.4% y/y to $1.7bn

Investment Thesis

On valuation grounds relative to the current share price, ABC trades fair value.

Trading on 2-Yr PE-multiple of 10.2x and dividend yield of 5.1% represents good value at these levels.
Macro conditions remain uncertain in key regions.
Strong pipeline of infrastructure projects over the next 2 years is a positive but timing and execution is a risk.
Solid balance sheet position provides some flexibility to the Company to pursue growth.
Leading positions as a lime producer, concrete products producer and cement and clinker supplier.
Outlook for lime looks relatively positive with higher infrastructure projects and resource sector activity.

Key Risks

Softer sales volume than expected.
Loss of market share to competitors or imports and pressure on pricing.
Softer than expected pricing increases.
Higher than expected energy prices.
Execution risk in relation to Company’s cost-out and vertical integration strategies.
Deterioration of A$ relative to other currencies.
Unfavorable weather impacts.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

Revenue increased +8.4% to $1.7bn, driven by price increases and volume growth across most product lines.
Underlying EBITDA (including property profits of $57.6m) increased +7.7% to $295.3m with margin down -10bps to 17.4%, negatively impacted by increased costs and wet weather which impacted ability to deliver products efficiently, thus more than offsetting price and volume increases across some product lines.
Underlying NPAT decreased -0.9% to $118m and statutory NPAT declined -12.1% to $102.6m, impacted by higher operating costs as a result of inflation, particularly energy costs, and wet weather events.
Operating cashflow declined -14.8% to $166.4m, largely due to lower earnings and an increase in working capital associated with higher receivable and inventory levels.
Capex increased +81.6% to $255.1m, largely due to the spend on the Kwinana Upgrade project, with total capex split between stay-in-business capital of $123.9m, up +16.9% and development capital of $131.2m, up +280.3%.
Net debt increased +31.8% y/y to $576.4m due to the Zanows acquisition and Kwinana Upgrade project, partially offset by surplus land sales, resulting in a leverage ratio increasing +0.4x y/y to 2x and gearing increasing +980bps y/y to 44.3%, with both remain well within banking covenants (though at higher end).
Underlying ROFE of 9.5%, declined -110bps y/y, reflecting investments in Kwinana Upgrade project and the Zanows acquisition.
The Board scrapped the final dividend to preserve capital required for the completion of Kwinana Upgrade project, resulting in a total FY22 dividend of 5cps, down -60% y/y.

Company Description

Adbri Ltd (ABC) is an Australia listed construction materials and liming producing company. ABC is Australia’s leading (1) lime producer in the minerals processing industry; (2) concrete products producer; and (3) cement and clinker importer. ABC is Australia’s number two cement and clinker supplier to the Australian construction industry and number four concrete and aggregates producer.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Investor Desk and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Investor Desk and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Investor Desk and Banyan Tree.

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Shares Small Cap

The Star Entertainment Group Limited, an integrated resort company, provides gaming, entertainment, and hospitality services in Australia

Investment Thesis:

Trading below blended valuation (DCF & EV/EBITDA multiple).
Additional cost measures announced to support earnings.
Monopolies in the casino industry in SGR’s operating geographies and is one of the market leaders in other games such as slots.
Economic moat in the nightlife landscape in Sydney given regulatory environment (such as lock-out laws).
Diversified business base across different types of entertainment, hotels, retail stores and food & beverage establishments.
Strong tourism growth once borders reopen is expected to be a tailwind for SGR.
Lower AUD could improve international spending in domestic markets.
Domestic table games segment remains strong.

Key Risks:

Weakening VIP segment, potentially making Sydney less viable.
Further deterioration of consumer spending and household discretionary income
Regulatory risks e.g., repeal of lockout laws could increase competition in the nightlife landscape in Sydney.
Establishment of a new Crown casino in Sydney will increase competition (especially amongst VIP customers) and could potentially dismantle SGR’s monopoly in Sydney.
Win-rate risk (if the casinos have a much lower win-rate than the mathematical expected value).
Potential scandals.

Key Highlights:

FY22 results summary. Compared to pcp: On a normalised basis, gross revenue declined -2% to $1.532bn, EBITDA declined -45% to $237m and NPAT was a loss of $32m (vs profit of $116m in pcp), impacted by Covid-19 related property shutdowns, operating restrictions, and border closures. Statutory net loss (post significant items) was $199m vs profit of $58m in pcp. Operating expenses increased +14% to $909m, reflecting Covid-19 related impacts, inflationary pressures, tight labour market and regulatory review costs (Bell Review, AUSTRAC enforcement investigation).
Operating cash flow declined -61.5% to $181.3m with cash collection down -42% to 81%.
Capex of $141m, within the guidance range of $125-150m and well below D&A expense of $208m.
Balance sheet has ample liquidity position of $513m in cash and undrawn facilities. Net debt declined -2% YoY to $1.15bn, equating to gearing of 2.8x, with the Group fully compliant with June 2022 amended covenants and no covenant relief required for FY23 testing dates. (6) Final dividend scrapped.
By segments. Compared to pcp: Sydney revenue declined -6% to $781m and normalised EBITDA declined -60% to $82m, impacted by the closure of the property for 102 days and operating restrictions due to Covid-19, however, domestic revenues rebounded on opening with 4Q22 domestic revenue consistent with pre-Covid levels with slots revenue up +17% on pre-covid levels partially offset by -8% decline in domestic tables.
Gold Coast domestic revenue was up +11% to $424m with non-gaming revenue up +50%, which combined with +27% increase in opex saw normalised EBITDA decline -20% to $90m. Domestic revenues rebounded in 4Q22, up +48% on pre-Covid level with slots revenue up +50%, domestic tables up +23% and non-gaming up +69%.
Brisbane domestic revenue declined -6% to $326m and normalised EBITDA declined -43% to $65m, however, performance improved in April following removal of Covid-19 restrictions with domestic revenue in 4Q22 up +13% on pre-Covid levels with slots revenue up +26% while domestic tables down -4%.
FY23 guidance and trading update. For FY23 capex of ~$150m (vs prior guidance of ~$175m), D&A expense of ~$200-205m, net funding costs of $60-65m and JV equity contributions of ~$115m.
Trading update (1 July 2022-18 August 2022) group domestic revenue increased +9% on pre-Covid levels (1 July 2019-18 August 2019) with Sydney domestic revenue in-line with pre-Covid levels, Gold Coast domestic revenue up +26% and Brisbane domestic revenue up +18%.
Key executive appointments. Robbie Cooke (ex-CEO Tatts Group and ex-MD Tyro Payments) appointed as MD and CEO.
Scott Wharton appointed as CEO The Star Sydney and Group Head of Transformation.

Company Description:

The Star Entertainment Group Limited, an integrated resort company, provides gaming, entertainment, and hospitality services in Australia. The Company operates through three segments: Sydney, Gold Coast, and Brisbane. It owns and operates The Star Sydney casino, which includes hotels, apartment complex, restaurants, and bars; The Star Gold Coast casino, which consists of hotels, theatre, restaurants, and bars; and Treasury casino in Brisbane that comprises hotel, restaurants, and bars. The company also manages the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre. The company was formerly known as Echo Entertainment Group Limited and changed its name to The Star Entertainment Group Limited in November 2015.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

Tags Small Caps, Top Stories

Funds Funds

T. Rowe Price Global Equity Fund- T. Rowe Price Group provides a broad array of mutual funds

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date February 17, 2023
No Comments on T. Rowe Price Global Equity Fund- T. Rowe Price Group provides a broad array of mutual funds

investment stockbroker risk analysis using multiple devices. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

The Fund’s investment objective is to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing primarily in a portfolio of securities of companies which are traded, listed or due to be listed, on recognised exchanges and/or markets throughout the world. The portfolio may include investments in the securities of companies traded, listed or due to be listed, on recognised exchanges and/or markets, of developing countries. The Investment Manager may seek to achieve the Fund’s objective through investment of up to 100% of the Fund’s assets in one or more managed investment schemes, managed by the Investment Manager or an affiliate of the Investment Manager, that have the same or similar investment objectives as the Fund. The Investment Manager will seek, where material and to the extent reasonable, to reduce the Fund’s exposure to the fluctuation between its currency of denomination (ie AUD) and the currencies of investment of the Fund through the use of various techniques including the use of Derivatives such as forward currency contracts, currency options and futures.

Process

The investment process involves determining the Fund’s investment universe, which includes companies traded, listed or due to be listed, on recognised exchanges and/or markets, of countries which T Rowe Price has determined are developed or developing countries. T. Rowe Price leverages the proprietary fundamental research and analysis performed by the organisation’s integrated worldwide network of more than 400 equity investment professionals to identify highly recommended companies. T. Rowe Price engages equity investment professionals to identify superior investment ideas, assess opportunities in a global sector context, overlay macroeconomic and local market factors to refine industry and company analysis, and select what it believes to be investments with the most attractive risk-reward characteristics. The Investment Manager is actively involved with the network of equity investment professionals during the idea generation and refinement process. Ultimately, the portfolio manager applies judgment to construct a focused global portfolio consisting of the highest conviction investment ideas, within a diversified framework of country, sector and company guidelines.

People

Chris Di Leva, CFA Director, Portfolio Manager, Andrew Bascand Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, Lewis Fowler, CFA Investment Analyst.

Performance

To provide long-term capital growth by investing primarily in a portfolio of securities which are traded, listed or due to be listed, on recognised exchanges and/or markets throughout the world.

Price

They have partnered with Baltimore-based fund manager T. Rowe Price to offer this global equity fund in New Zealand. It contains a broadly diversified portfolio of global equities, typically comprising around 150 stocks. This high conviction portfolio contains companies which the T. Rowe Price team believe exhibit above-average and sustainable growth characteristics

Asset Allocation

About Fund

The T. Rowe Price Global Equity Fund is a high conviction, truly global portfolio seeking to invest in durable quality growth companies in some of the most fertile industries around the world. T. Rowe Price Australia Limited (“Investment Manager” or “T. Rowe Price”) is a subsidiary of the Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. which is a global investment management organisation with $2.16 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, 2021. T. Rowe Price Group provides a broad array of mutual funds, sub-advisory services, and separate account management for individual and institutional investors, retirement plans and financial intermediaries. The organisation also offers sophisticated investment planning and guidance tools. T. Rowe Price’s disciplined and risk-aware investment approach focuses on diversification, style consistency and fundamental research.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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ETFs ETFs

BetaShares Global Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF – RBTZ aims to track the performance of an index that includes global companies

Approach

In seeking to achieve the investment objective for each Fund, the Responsible Entity will employ a passive management approach that aims to track the performance of the relevant Index, before fees and expenses. Unless otherwise set out in the Product Supplement, each Fund will generally invest in the securities that comprise the relevant Index in proportion to the weightings of the securities in the Index. This is known as a “full replication” strategy. For such Funds, the timing and nature of any changes to the composition of the Fund’s investments will generally correspond with the timing and nature of changes to the relevant Index. In a variety of circumstances, however, the holdings of a Fund may not exactly replicate its Index. For example, it may not be possible or practical to do so in some circumstances, such as where investment restrictions apply which would prevent direct investment in a particular security. A Fund, from time to time, may not hold all of the securities comprising the Index and may hold securities in weightings which differ from the Index. Some Funds will generally not hold all of the securities comprising the relevant Index and may hold securities in weightings which differ from the Index. This is referred to as a “sampling” strategy. A sampling strategy is often used for funds tracking an index that is too broad to efficiently purchase all of the index’s securities. For Funds where a sampling strategy is used, this is noted in the relevant Product Supplement. For such Funds, the sampling strategy is based on a portfolio of securities that may be a sub-set of the constituents of the Index and that aims to be representative of the characteristics of the constituents of the Index as a whole. The aim of a sampling strategy is to construct a portfolio that provides a return profile comparable to that of the Index.

Portfolio

The Index seeks to track the price movements of a portfolio containing the top 50 technology and online retail stocks, by free float market capitalization, that have their main area of business in Asia excluding Japan.The Index is normally reconstituted and rebalanced semi-annually, with the new portfolio becoming effective at the close of trading on the first Wednesday in May and November each year.

Portfolio Holdings

People

Adam O’Connor is a member of the BetaShares Distribution team responsible for supporting Institutional and Intermediary Broker and Adviser channels. Alex is a member of the BetaShares Sales & Distribution team, responsible for assisting with client inquires and providing portfolio analytics support to the sales team. Alex is a member of the BetaShares Distribution team, responsible for supporting Institutional and Intermediary Broker channels.

Performance

RBTZ aims to track the Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index before fees and expenses. The Index focuses on identifying the industries and sub-themes positively impacted by robotics and A.I. The Index includes companies involved in Industrial Robotics and Automation, Non-Industrial Robots, Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Vehicles and Drones. To qualify for inclusion in the Index, a constituent must have a minimum market capitalisation of US$100 million.

About the Fund

Robotics involves the idea, design, creation, and application of programmable mechanical devices that can perform tasks and interact with their environments without human input. A.I. is a division of computer science that emphasises the conception of intelligent machines that can work, react, and learn like humans in order to recognise speech, plan, and solve problems. Robotics and Artificial Intelligence is a transformational technological development, with the ability to disrupt multiple industries due to significant economic incentives related to ageing populations, rising labour costs, and opportunity for performance improvements.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice:

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

Tags Australian Market, Top Stories

Dividend Stocks

Equitrans Highlights Need for Permitting Reform to Move MVP Forward

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date February 2, 2023
No Comments on Equitrans Highlights Need for Permitting Reform to Move MVP Forward

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Equitrans’ biggest challenge is moving the deeply troubled Mountain Valley Pipeline, or MVP, into service. Equitrans sees Sen. Joe Manchin’s support as helpful and has been in frequent contact with the West Virginia Democratic senator. The recently announced proposed energy permitting provisions (separate legislation from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022) contains direct benefits for MVP, thanks to Senator Manchin’s support, given the pipeline’s presence in West Virginia. A similar legislative proposal has also been introduced by the republican senator of West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito. The Fourth Circuit remains the primary roadblock presently, as it has overruled state and federal agencies’ technical conclusions more than 10 times at this stage. Both legislative proposals address the judicial review. Manchin’s proposal moves the MVP case to the DC Circuit court, while Capito’s simply states that none of the approvals issued by the federal agencies as it relates to the MVP are subject to judicial review. It is observed that the two legislative proposals are indicative of fairly broad support for overall pipeline permitting reform. If either version were to pass as written, they would move the MVP into service, so it is seen the uncertainty primarily around obtaining enough political support to pass likely via adding or deleting certain provisions, which will likely be a razor-thin margin given the current political environment.

Risk and Uncertainty:

The Mountain Valley Pipeline represents the largest risk to Equitrans from a financial and reputational perspective, given the numerous permitting issues it faces. The pipeline also recently resolved an over two-year criminal investigation into its activities without any issues. Another investigation was settled with $2.15 million in fines and court-ordered monitoring. The MVP bet is made bigger because of the over $500 million committed to several related projects that are explicitly tied to the MVP becoming operational. Customer concentration risk with EQT is a concern, as EQT makes up about 70% of Equitrans’ revenue. The firm recently resolved a dispute regarding the Hammerhead pipeline via an arbitration panel. The firm wrote off over $1.2 billion in 2018 and 2019, and another $2.5 billion in 2021 and 2022 related to MVP. Given the difficulty in valuing long-term 10- to 20-year contracts for gathering and processing assets due to the challenges in planned drilling and production,it is believed future write-downs are possible. From an ESG perspective, it is considered a major risk to Equitrans to be managing its carbon emissions profile and stakeholder management. Equitrans’ carbon emissions profile becomes important especially if the United States seeks to implement a national carbon tax. From a stakeholder management perspective, the legal, community, and regulatory challenges over the MVP have added billions of dollars in costs to the pipeline, and the damaged stakeholder relationships could also influence future projects.

Bulls Say:

The integration of Rice Energy Midstream offers optimization opportunities, given the geographic closeness of the assets, representing $300 million to $500 million in potential capital avoidance over the next five years.
With the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, the MVP can take advantage of higher shipper demand and launch additional expansion efforts.
Equitrans has been very successful at driving down unit costs at its gathering operations, with a 45% decline since 2015.

Company Description:

Equitrans acquired EQM Midstream in mid-2020, consolidating the midstream family. Equitrans now own EQM assets directly versus just unit ownership. EQM Midstream provides gathering, transmission, and water services to primarily Appalachian producers in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Megaport Is Making Significant Strides Toward Profitability Without Sacrificing Sales Growth

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date February 1, 2023
No Comments on Megaport Is Making Significant Strides Toward Profitability Without Sacrificing Sales Growth

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Demand for software-defined networks, or SDNs, like Megaport offers should grow tremendously in coming years, as enterprises increasingly use cloud services, often with multiple cloud providers. Enterprises typically need to connect their private equipment to cloud partners, and data often needs to be transferred between cloud providers. Software-defined networks allow enterprises to quickly provision capacity through an online portal and flexibly adjust capacity to meet their current needs. Megaport’s growth has been driven both by adding new customers at high rate while also seeing customers use its services more. The firm has averaged more than 20% average annual customer growth the past three years while still seeing services per customer and revenue per service grow, despite the higher base. The trend is expected to continue as customers continue to increase their reliance on multiple cloud providers and become more aware of Megaport’s alternative to traditional connectivity options. Megaport enables firms to locate equipment in fewer data centers and connect remotely with an alternative to traditional telecom connections (which can be inflexible and expensive) and the public internet (which is less reliable and secure).

Risk and Uncertainty:

The biggest risk, is that numerous companies would eventually be able to provide similar services, leading to a lack of pricing power and inability to earn attractive returns. Currently, Megaport has a bigger footprint than its rivals. It has a global presence in more data centers than competitors, and it has a relationship with all the biggest cloud providers, which is thought to be key to attracting customers. Against that backdrop, Megaport has seen revenue grow rapidly and margins improve substantially over each of the five years since the company’s initial public offering. The firm’s current market valuation implies the trend will continue, but if competitors can close the gap and offer comparable connections to customers, Megaport might have to compete more on price. In addition to the threat from copycat firms, Megaport could be susceptible to traditional network providers that own infrastructure and have historically met enterprises’ network needs. With existing ownership of the same types of assets that Megaport must lease and existing relationships with many of the cloud providers, data centers, and enterprises that support Megaport’s business, they would be well positioned to enter the market if the opportunity is enticing. Megaport’s biggest ESG risk is that of a data or security breach, given the firm is entrusted with and handles such high volumes of sensitive data. The financial and reputational damage that could result from a severe security breach could be devastating.

Bulls Say:

The rise in data usage, the need to access data, and the use of cloud providers leaves many more firms needing network services. Megaport’s software-defined network is a better solution than the expensive and stodgy traditional networks.
Partnerships with data center firms, telecom companies, and networking firms like Cisco and VMware support Megaport’s business and give it an advantage over other startup SDNs.
Operating leverage is taking hold and puts Megaport on the cusp of becoming very profitable while it is maintaining high sales growth.

Company Description:

Megaport is a software-defined network service provider that allows enterprise customers to connect between data centers. At the end of fiscal-year 2021, Megaport was connected to 423 data centers in more than 130 cities throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Most of the firm’s customer connections are to cloud service providers, like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure, but Megaport also enables customers to connect between their own equipment in different locations and to internet exchanges. With a softwaredefined, rather than traditional, network, customers have flexibility to adjust connection needs almost instantaneously through a self-serve online portal without long-term commitments.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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Technology Stocks

Infineon’s product lines still face formidable competition

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date January 31, 2023
No Comments on Infineon’s product lines still face formidable competition

Business Strategy & Outlook

Infineon is a leading broad-based European chipmaker, with substantial exposure to secular growth drivers in the industrial and automotive chip sectors. Infineon should emerge as a leading supplier for electric vehicles and active safety systems used in cars, with increasing exposure to car “infotainment” systems. However, like most chipmakers, Infineon’s business remains highly cyclical as demand rises and falls with the health of its various end markets. Looking at the automotive chip market, electric vehicles and cars with advanced powertrain technology and safety systems require a variety of sensors and power voltage chips supplied by firms like Infineon. Similarly, the company’s exposure to power semis allows it to benefit from trends in the electronics industry toward power conservation, not only in more efficient devices like industrial drives, but also in green energy solutions like solar panels. Infineon is also a leader in chip card and security products, such as chips for chip-and-pin credit cards.

Finally, limiting exposure to challenging markets is just as important as increasing exposure to promising markets, and Infineon has done a good job of eliminating unattractive business segments in prior years. Nonetheless, Infineon’s product lines still face formidable competition. Many other large semiconductor firms also focus on power semiconductors and have similar products. Further, Infineon focuses on discrete power products rather than analog power management integrated circuits. While the former products are valuable to customers, the latter of which has more complex products that allow leading analog firms (such as several wide-moat names) to enjoy stronger pricing power and relatively higher returns on invested capital. Infineon also has hefty manufacturing capacity for its products, which may lead to a higher fixed-cost structure and may cause significant margin compression when supply far exceeds demand.

Financial Strengths

Credit Suisse has a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.4% currently, ahead of its own internal capital target of a 14% common equity Tier 1 ratio. This is comfortably ahead of its regulatory minimum capital requirement of 10%. However, Credit Suisse’s leveraged ratio of 4.2% is more of a constraint, with a regulatory minimum requirement of 3.5% and an internal target of 4.5%. Credit Suisse intends to pay out 25% of its earnings as a dividend and it has not announced new share buybacks. Credit Suisse will not be able to return more than this to Both Credit Suisse’s liquidity coverage ratio and its net stable funding ratio are comfortably above 100%, which indicates sound liquidity. To assess, these ratios, while helpful, do not fully capture the quality of a bank’s funding. One should also consider the structure of a bank’s funding—where the relatively lower importance of wholesale deposits in Credit Suisse’s funding mix is a clear positive. However, private banking/wealth management clients will typically be more sophisticated than the average retail banking client and therefore more likely to withdraw funds in times of stress. The private banking deposits aren’t as sticky as general retail deposits, although they remain stickier than wholesale funding.

Bulls Say

Infineon is now focused on its core industrial, automotive, and card security markets after a series of smart divestitures of underperforming businesses.
The automotive semiconductor market could see healthy growth in the years ahead, as gas-powered cars are being equipped with extra sensors and processors while hybrid and electric cars require additional chip content to control new types of engines.
Infineon’s power semis are well suited to benefit from broad-based demand across a wide variety of products seeking energy efficiency.

Company Description

Infineon Technologies headquartered in Munich, was spun off from German industrial conglomerate Siemens in 2000 and today is one of Europe’s largest chipmakers. The company is a leader in the automotive semiconductor market with prominent products used in active safety and powertrain content within vehicles. Infineon is also the market leader in power semiconductors used to deliver voltage within a wide variety of electrical systems. The company operates in four segments: automotive, industrial power control, power and sensor systems, and connected secure systems.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Compass makes most of its SOP directly from salt brines at a lower cost

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date January 27, 2023
No Comments on Compass makes most of its SOP directly from salt brines at a lower cost

Business Strategy & Outlook

Compass Minerals holds an enviable portfolio of cost-advantaged assets. Its Goderich rock salt mine in Ontario benefits from unique geology, and with access to a deep-water port, it can deliver deicing salt to customers at a lower cost than competitors. Additionally, the company controls one of only three naturally occurring brine sources that produces the specialty fertilizer sulfate of potash, or SOP. These operations at the Great Salt Lake in Utah can produce SOP at a lower cost than marginal cost producers who convert standard potash. The majority of Compass’ salt sales are to highway deicing customers. Sales volumes are determined during the winter months and are strongly linked to the number of snow days per season. As such, weather has a big impact on Compass’ year-to-year results. The deicing salt business also exposes Compass to climate change risk. One effect of climate change is increased snowfall volatility from year to year, which affects Compass’ annual results. However, winter weather has shown mean reversion tendencies over longer periods of time.

Pricing for deicing salt is also linked to winter weather. However, prices have historically been relatively stable compared with other commodities. Deicing salt has a low value/weight ratio, creating regional markets, and transportation costs make up a significant portion of total costs to the customer. With mines close to waterways like the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River, Compass has a transportation cost advantage over its competitors. Compass also produces SOP, which is used for high-value crops that are sensitive to the chloride in standard potash (muriate of potash). While marginal producers use MOP and sulfuric acid to produce SOP, Compass makes most of its SOP directly from salt brines at a lower cost. Compass also plans to produce magnesium chloride, used for fire retardants to combat wildfires, and lithium as byproducts from the brine after extracting SOP. Compass will enter the fire-retardant market in the Western U.S. through its 45% equity investment in Fortress. Lithium demand will grow over 6 times during this decade due to higher electric vehicle adoption.

Financial Strengths

As of Sept. 30, Compass Minerals had roughly $900 million in net debt. A net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.4, well above management’s long-term target of 2.5 times. The company’s leverage has been elevated since adding about $600 million in debt in 2016 to help fund the Produquimica acquisition that has since been divested. Leverage ratios have remained high even after Compass completed the divestiture of two noncore assets in order to pay down debt due to cost inflation weighing on salt profits. the company’s leverage ratio will decline in fiscal 2023 as salt prices increase and costs inflation stabilizes, restoring EBITDA and increasing free cash flow. This should allow the company pay down debt over the next couple of years. Additionally, management cut its annual dividend to $0.60 per share from $2.88, which should save the company an estimated $80 million a year. Much of the future savings will go toward paying down debt over the next several years. Finally, Compass raised $252 million in equity from Koch Industries. Of the proceeds, $200 million will be used to fund the majority of the initial phase of the company’s lithium project, while the remainder will be used to pay down debt. As Compass generates higher EBITDA and cash flows and pays down debt, Compass’ net leverage ratio will fall closer to management’s long-term target of 2.5 times over the next several years. While headline credit metrics will fluctuate in the coming years according to variations in winter weather and fertilizer prices, leverage is to remain, on average, at manageable but elevated levels.

Bulls Say

Compass holds a portfolio of cost-advantaged assets, including the Ontario rock salt mine and brine operations at the Great Salt Lake in Utah.
Highway deicing salt prices are relatively stable, and Compass’ average selling prices in this area have increased over time.
Compass’ plans to enter the lithium and fire-retardant markets will create long-term value as strong demand growth in these industries should lead to incremental profit growth.

Company Description

Compass Minerals currently produces two primary products: salt and specialty potash fertilizer. The company’s main assets include rock salt mines in Ontario, Louisiana, and the United Kingdom and a salt brine operation at the Great Salt Lake in Utah. Compass’ salt products are used for deicing and also by industrial and consumer end markets. The firm also sells sulfate of potash, which is used by growers of high-value crops that are sensitive to standard potash. Compass is expanding its portfolio and plans to enter the fire-retardant market, with its magnesium chloride-based product used to combat forest fires. The company also plans to enter the lithium market. Compass will produce magnesium chloride and lithium as byproducts from its sulfate of potash operation in Utah.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

AGL’s FY22 underlying NPAT declined -58% YoY primarily due to coal plant outages

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date January 24, 2023
No Comments on AGL’s FY22 underlying NPAT declined -58% YoY primarily due to coal plant outages

Investment Thesis:

Energy margins bottom out and could potentially start to improve (higher customer and volume numbers).
Strong cash flow business which provided flexibility to deploy cash in growth opportunities and capital management.
On-going focus on costs and digitalization should support margins.
Potential capital management initiatives (e.g., buyback).
Demerger into AGL Australia and Accel may unlock shareholder value.
Potential favorable changes to the regulatory environment.
Potential M&A – AGL has already received a takeover bid at $7.50 per share which was rejected by the AGL Board.

Key Risks:

Competitive pressures leading to margin erosion.
Cost pressure and fuel supply issues lead to margin erosion.
Increase in supply leading to depressed prices.
Regulatory risk (policy uncertainty), such recent regulation in electricity markets [ Victorian Default Offer (VDO) and Default Market Offer (DMO)].
Unscheduled shutdowns impacting earnings.

Key Highlights:

Underlying EBITDA declined -27% YoY to $1.22bn and underlying NPAT declined -58% YoY to $225m, reflecting the expected step down in Trading and Origination Electricity earnings due to lower realized contracted and wholesale customer prices, increased costs of capacity to cover periods of peak electricity demand, absence of the Loy Yang Unit 2 insurance proceeds recognized in FY21, increased residential solar volumes and margin compression via customer switching.
Net cash from operations declined -2% YoY to $1.227bn with lower underlying EBITDA partially offset by a strong working capital outcome which saw cash conversion improve +27% YoY to 123%, however, management warned of a hit to cash conversion rate in FY23.
Capital management. Strong balance sheet with net debt declining -11.2% to $2,662m, reducing gearing by -590bps to 29.2%, giving company significant headroom to debt covenant of gearing <50%.
Board declared a final unfranked dividend of 10cps, equating to total FY22 dividends of 26cps, down -65% YoY and equating to a payout ratio of 75% vs 87% pcp.
Opex savings target exceeded. The Company saw opex (excluding D&A) decline -7.6% YoY as management delivered FY22 recurring savings of ~$158m (vs target of $150m), including initial benefits from structural review and reduction in corporate costs. However, management warned that it expects a small step up in operating costs for FY23, albeit being lower than CPI after adjusting for the non-recurring benefits in FY22.
Outlook. Management announced it will provide FY23 guidance in late-September in conjunction with the initial outcomes of the review of strategic direction, however, expects FY23 earnings to remain resilient amidst the current challenging in the energy industry and market conditions, underscored by the strength of AGL’s large and diversified customer base, low-cost baseload generation position supported by strong fuel supply arrangements, robust risk management, with prudent margin management ensuring retail strength and stability in a highly volatile market, with the Company largely hedged for FY23 and well positioned from FY24 to benefit from sustained higher wholesale electricity pricing (Refer to Figure 4 for forward pricing curve) as historical hedge positions progressively roll-off.

Company Description:

AGL Energy Limited (AGL) is one of Australia’s leading integrated energy companies and the largest ASX listed owner, operator and developer of renewable energy generation in Australia. The company sells and distributes gas and electricity. Further, it also retails and wholesales energy and fuel products to customers throughout Australia. The business operates four main segments: Energy Markets, Group Operations, New Energy and Investments.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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Technology Stocks

Deere has exposure to end markets with attractive tailwinds

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date January 16, 2023
No Comments on Deere has exposure to end markets with attractive tailwinds

Business Strategy & Outlook

Deere offers customers an extensive portfolio of agriculture and construction products. It will continue to be the leader in the agriculture industry and one of the top players in construction. For over a century, the company has been the pre-eminent manufacturer of mission-critical agricultural equipment, which has led to its place as one of the world’s most valuable brands. Deere’s strong brand is underpinned by its high-quality, extremely durable, and efficient products. Customers in developed markets also value Deere’s ability to reduce the total cost of ownership. The company’s strategy focuses on delivering a comprehensive solution for farmers. Deere’s innovative products target each phase of the production process, which includes field preparation, planting and seeding, applying chemicals, and harvesting. The company also embeds technology in its products, from guidance systems to seed placement and customized spraying applications. Over the past decade, the company has continually released new products and upgraded existing product models to drive greater machine efficiency. Customers also rely on the services that Deere and its dealers provide, for example, machine maintenance and access to its proprietary aftermarket parts. Furthermore, its digital applications help customers interact with dealers, manage their fleet, and track machine performance to determine when maintenance is needed.

Deere has exposure to end markets with attractive tailwinds. In agriculture, demand for corn and soybeans will be strong in the near term, largely due to robust demand from China and tight global supplies. On the construction side, the company will benefit from the $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal in the U.S. The country’s roads are in poor condition, which has led to pent-up road construction demand. Looking further out, the precision ag will be an incremental value driver for Deere. The company recently closed the precision ag loop (in terms of capabilities) with the introduction of its autonomous 8R tractor. The precision ag presents an over-$6 billion sales opportunity for the ag leader this decade.

Financial Strengths

Deere maintains a sound balance sheet. On the industrial side, the net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio was relatively low at the end of fiscal 2022, coming in at 0.7. Total outstanding debt, including both short- and long-term debt, was nearly $10.6 billion. Deere’s strong balance sheet gives management the financial flexibility to run a balanced capital allocation strategy going forward that mostly favors organic growth and also returns cash to shareholders. In terms of liquidity, the company can meet its near-term debt obligations given its strong cash balance. The company’s cash position as of fiscal year-end 2022 stood at $3.7 billion on its industrial balance sheet. Deere’s ability to tap into available lines of credit to meet any short-term needs looks comfortable. Deere has access to $5.7 billion in credit facilities. Deere can generate solid free cash flow throughout the economic cycle. The company can generate $8 billion in free cash flow in the midcycle year, supporting its ability to return nearly all of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Additionally, management is determined to rationalize its footprint by reducing the number of facilities in mature markets. If successful, this will put Deere on much better footing from a cost perspective, further supporting its ability to return cash to shareholders. The captive finance arm holds considerably more debt than the industrial business, but this is reasonable, given its status as a lender to both customers and dealers. Total debt stood at $37 billion in fiscal 2022, along with $42 billion in finance receivables and $1 billion in cash. Deere enjoys a strong financial position supported by a clean balance sheet and strong free cash flow prospects.

Bulls Say

Higher crop prices encourage farmers to grow more crops and will lead to more farming equipment purchases, substantially boosting Deere’s revenue growth.
Deere will benefit from strong replacement demand, as uncertainty around trade, weather, and agriculture commodity demand has eased, encouraging farmers to refresh their machine fleet.
Increased infrastructure spending in the U.S. and emerging markets will lead to more construction equipment purchases, benefiting Deere.

Company Description

Deere is the world’s leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment, producing some of the most recognizable machines in the heavy machinery industry. The company is divided into four reportable segments: production and precision agriculture, small agriculture and turf, construction and forestry, and John Deere Capital. Its products are available through an extensive dealer network, which includes over 1,900 dealer locations in North America and approximately 3,700 locations globally. John Deere Capital provides retail financing for machinery to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Deere product sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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