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Dividend Stocks

Recent acquisitions in the business position Scotts to take advantage of growing demand from states where cannabis has been recently legalized

Business Strategy and Outlook

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the largest and most recognizable name in the U.S. consumer lawn and gardening market. The firm sells a wide array of products aimed at helping consumers grow and maintain their lawns. The U.S. consumer segment, which consists of lawn and gardening products, generated 65% of total revenue in fiscal 2021. Scotts has generated healthy margins on its products through effective branding, which allows it to maintain favorable product positioning and shelf space in the largest mass-market and home improvement retailers. Scotts has also been able to charge a premium over competitors because of its strong brand equity. While actual product differentiation in the industry is limited, consumers have been willing to pay up for Scotts’ products. 

Future demand for gardening products will depend on growth in the housing industry. It is alleged housing starts to average 1.5 million per year through 2030. While housing starts alone should increase demand for gardening products, it is held some secular trends that will offset the growth. Living-preference shifts to smaller lots and urban centers should result in less need for gardening products. Additionally, a greater proportion of gardening products will be sold online. Currently, the vast majority of sales occur at brick-and-mortar retail. Even if Scotts increases its online sales presence, it may lose some pricing power as many products in the gardening industry shift away from brick-and-mortar retailers to online platforms, where Scotts will likely face more lower-priced competition. 

The Hawthorne segment, which includes indoor gardening, hydroponics, and lighting equipment, contributed a little under 30% of revenue in fiscal 2021. Its growth is closely tied to the legalization of cannabis in the U.S., as its products are frequently used by licensed growers. Recent acquisitions in the business should position Scotts to take advantage of growing demand from states where cannabis has been recently legalized. The majority of U.S. consumer sales typically come from Home Depot and Lowe’s. However, this should decline as a percentage of companywide revenue as the Hawthorne segment grows.

Financial Strength

Scotts Miracle-Gro currently has elevated leverage. As of March 31, calculation for net debt/adjusted EBITDA was nearly 5 times, well above with management’s long-term target leverage of 3.5 times. However, the company built up inventory in both the U.S. consumer and Hawthorne businesses in anticipation of improving volumes in the second half of the fiscal year. As the company works down its inventory and uses the cash to repay debt, it is noticed there are no issues with its current financial position. Further, as the Hawthorne business continues to recover from the current industry oversupply, it is alleged for EBITDA growth will resume and leverage ratios will fall back to management’s targets. Over the last five years, dividends grew at an average mid-single-digit rate. Management has indicated that it intends to continue raising the dividend, and Scotts should have the free cash flow to do so. Management uses additional free cash flow to either repurchase shares or pay a special dividend. For example, in 2020, Scotts paid a $5 per share special dividend.

Bulls Say’s

  • U.S. household formation growth will drive demand for gardening products. As the market leader in consumer gardening products, Scotts will benefit from the secular housing trend. 
  • Consumer behavior has changed as a result of COVID-19, with more consumers engaging in gardening as an activity. As the largest player in the consumer gardening market, Scotts will benefit from this change. 
  • The emerging cannabis industry represents a lucrative opportunity for Scotts, which is well positioned to capture this segment of the market.

Company Profile 

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the largest provider of gardening and lawncare products in the United States. The majority of the company’s sales are to large retailers that include Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. Scotts Miracle-Gro can sell its products at a higher price point than its competition because of a well-recognized portfolio of brands that include Miracle-Gro, Roundup, Ortho, Tomcat, and Scotts. Scotts is also the leading supplier of cannabis-growing equipment in North America through its Hawthorne business. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

With deeper and stronger expertise in underwriting, Hannover Re retrocedes less than comparable European reinsurance companies

Business Strategy and Outlook

Hannover Re is a property and casualty, and life and health reinsurer with property and casualty contributing a little over two thirds of the company’s profits to shareholders. Hannover Re has a slightly less than double-digit market share in both these divisions. This is a business that is characterised by underwriting and carving deep expertise in niche areas. While this may sound a bit woolly, experts sense is that some of this underwriting difference comes from the overall ownership of the underwriting process by Hannover Re’s underwriters. It is conceptualised through lenses of decision-making and responsibility. Whereas in other reinsurance firms, underwriters may need to defer back to a head of risk or perhaps even the c-suit, underwriters at Hannover Re have the authority, experience, and expertise to make and take those decisions more directly. With more of these decisions being made closer to the front line it is alleged to lead to better standards of underwriting. Furthermore, it is probable for this to lead to stronger client relationships. Because underwriters are client-facing and thus renewals a reiterative negotiation, with Hannover Re’s underwriters in the position to directly negotiate and discuss client needs without the need for constant deferral, clients feel and are more connected to Hannover Re and this drives stronger retention rates. As it is known, stronger retention drives lower commission and acquisition costs. 

In addition to the culture of excellence in underwriting with a proven reputation for expertise in specialist lines, Hannover Re benefits from an expense advantage and these two benefits are aligned. For example, with deeper and stronger expertise in underwriting, Hannover Re retrocedes less than comparable European reinsurance companies. As the business has the institutional capacity to absorb this internally with regard to its frontline, coupled with the lower levels of internal referrals outlined, Hannover Re supports more premium per employee than other comparable. The outcome of this is tangible with the business benefiting from at least a 100-basis-point expense ratio advantage.

Financial Strength

As it can be seen Hannover Re has a good balance sheet. Leverage is quite low with debt standing at around EUR 3.4 billion. That stands in contrast to equity owned by shareholders of EUR 10.9 billion. Admittedly, of that EUR 2.3 billion is attributable to gains on securities classified as available for sale. It is already touched on where Hannover’s balance sheet is weakest with the largest part of Hannover’s market risk attributable to default and spread risk. As digging a bit deeper, it can be seen that this relates to Hannover’s allocation to credit. Of the EUR 14.2 billion held in corporate bonds, EUR 7.8 billion is held around investment-grade. The shape of the government and semi-government bond portfolios is much more appealing. Hannover has also substantially increased its allocation to equities. Goodwill is however nice and low. Overall, this is a balance sheet that has room for quite a bit of improvement. First and foremost, it is found out for allocation to equities very opportunistic. This does not fit in with the typical corporate culture at Hannover Re. The quality of the credit portfolio is also a little light. But in the main this is a business that is not highly leveraged and is very financially disciplined.

Bulls Say’s

  • Hannover Re has a strong culture of expertise and experience in specialist underwriting. 
  • Hannover Re is a cost leader with one of the lowest proportional amounts spent on administrative expenses. 
  • Hannover Re focuses on organic growth rather than acquisitions. This not only comes through in its lean structure and lower expenses, but also in its approach to capital management and distributions to shareholders.

Company Profile 

Hannover Re is a German-based reinsurance company with a strong reputation in writing specialist lines of reinsurance and a low-cost operating model. The business and its management team are highly disciplined, rarely ever making an acquisition and favouring a strategy of specials over a commitment to a buyback when looking to return excess capital to shareholders. The business is also found to be innovative in finding alternative and unearthed profit sources.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

With a rising rate environment now on the horizon, Comerica should see its profits materially increase

Business Strategy and Outlook

Comerica is predominantly a commercial-focused middle-market bank, with over 90% of loans related to commercial lending and the majority of these related to its middle-market business. While the bank started in Michigan and remains a key player in this market, it has gradually expanded into California and Texas, which offer more growth potential. This has been a multiyear project and included moving the headquarters to Dallas from Michigan in 2007 and greatly expanding operations in Texas by acquiring Sterling Bancshares in 2011. Expansion in California has happened gradually for years, and the market has become Comerica’s largest, with roughly one third of the bank’s loans now based there. 

The bank has concentrations in the commercial real estate market, dealer floor plan lending, and mortgage banking. Comerica has a relatively small energy portfolio, which is likely to remain at 5% or less of the total loan book. The bank also has two business units primarily focused on serving institutional investors; the technology and life sciences unit and the equity fund services unit. Overall, the bank has a diversified set of commercial-focused lending and advisory segments. 

Comerica remains very leveraged to interest rates, as the vast majority (roughly 80%) of its loans are adjustable rate, making the bank one of the most interest-rate-sensitive names. This, combined with the bank’s sticky deposit base from its core commercial clients, makes the bank ideally positioned for rising rates. The flip side of this business model is that the bank can be more pressured during extended periods of low rates. With a rising rate environment now on the horizon, Comerica should see its profits materially increase. It is foreseen Comerica will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this rate backdrop. Comerica’s overall strategy of adding value through its deep, advisor-style relationships with small and midsize business clients is appreciated. Fee streams related to payments and wealth management will also help the bank outlearn its cost of capital over the long term.

Financial Strength

It is held Comerica is in good financial health. While losses from the energy portfolio ticked up in 2016 and again in 2020, the bank has managed the costs well and has shown that the risks are well managed. The common equity Tier 1 ratio has generally been above the bank’s 10% goal, which is viewed to be an appropriate target.

Bulls Say’s

  • A strong economy and higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel revenues and profitability even higher. This is particularly true for Comerica, which has uniquely high-rate sensitivity. 
  • A healthy business environment should uniquely benefit Comerica’s loan growth compared with many peers, as the bank almost exclusively focuses on commercial business, not retail. 
  • The bank’s superior commercial relationships are hard to replicate and lead to a good deposit base, increasing the value of the Comerica banking franchise.

Company Profile 

Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas. It is primarily focused on relationship-based commercial banking. In addition to Texas, Comerica’s other primary geographies are California and Michigan, with locations also in Arizona and Florida and select businesses operating in several other states as well as Canada. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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ETFs ETFs

BlackRock iShares Enhanced Cash ETF: A diversified Portfolio of higher-yielding high Quality Short-term Money Market Instrument.

Investment Objective

The Fund seeks, by employing a passive investment strategy, to outperform the S&P/ASX Bank Bill Index (before fees and expenses). It offers the ability to achieve potentially enhanced regular income with a diversified portfolio of higher-yielding high quality short-term money market instruments, including floating rate notes. It is truly liquid and only holds instruments that can be easily sold to meet investor requirements.

Investment Strategy

The Fund seeks to achieve its objective by employing a passive investment strategy that aims to outperform the performance of the S&P/ASX Bank Bill Index (referred to in this section 6 of the PDS as the Index).   Given the synthetic nature of Index constituents (refer to section 6.4 of this PDS, titled “About the Index” for further information) it is not possible to implement an investment strategy that looks to construct a portfolio of Index constituents. Instead, the Fund’s conservatively managed passive investment strategy will construct a portfolio of money market and fixed income securities that typically provide higher yield without significant increase in default and interest rate risk. Securities will be selected with consideration to the security’s rating, sector, maturity, liquidity, and underlying credit fundamentals. 

The Fund will be managed using a buy and hold investment philosophy, similar to other passive investment strategies, with full daily portfolio transparency. A sampling methodology has been selected as the most appropriate investment technique, as it keeps trading costs to a minimum and provides the necessary flexibility to deliver investment returns that either meet or at times may exceed Index returns. Any outperformance of the Index will not be a result of active trading nor the investment expertise of the individual fund manager(s) in selecting particular investment securities that it considers will perform better relative to other securities. Rather, returns above the Index would typically result from prudent risk mitigation and diversification measures, including: 

► issuer diversification, for example, rather than having issuer concentration to the four major Australian banks, diversification can be achieved by investing in similarly rated authorised deposit taking institutions (ADIs) who issue securities at a margin above the benchmark BBSW rates (the rates provided by the major Australian banks) ‐ the overarching investment consideration is prudent risk management and credit risk mitigation and not active security selection by the individual fund manager(s) based on perceived credit quality, as the credit quality is the same; and 
► investment of up to 20% in Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) which earn a higher yield relative to very short‐term “cash‐like” securities ‐ these investments will be “buy and hold” and not actively traded, the overarching investment rationale for holding these securities is to further diversify credit risk in the portfolio. The Fund is also expected to attract additional returns from attractive interest rates on Australian dollar cash deposits. The interest rate on cash deposits will most likely exceed the 24-hour Cash Rate that is used as a price input into the Index return calculation, as BlackRock has long

established commercial relationships with several Australian ADIs, which allows cash to be placed on deposit at commercial rates. 

Cash deposits are not actively traded; rather allocations will be based on issuer concentration limits, therefore further diversifying the portfolio.   

Trading within the Fund is only expected to meet client flows or the reinvestment of maturating securities and not as a result of active security selection. The credit quality, liquidity risk and maturity profile of the Fund will be continuously monitored and adjusted with reference to the Index. Additionally, investments of the Fund are required to have a long‐term credit rating of BBB or higher or a short‐term credit rating of A2 or higher by S&P Ratings or an equivalent rating from Moody’s. Further details of the Fund’s investment strategy, including investment parameters, is set out in the Fund’s Investment Guidelines, which is available upon request. Given the Fund is unable to implement a traditional full replication or optimisation passive investment strategy, the Fund may at times incur greater tracking error than other ETFs (refer to the section of this PDS titled “Fund risks” for further information on the risks associated with investing in the Fund).

Performance: 

Asset Allocation:

People:

About the Index:

The Index offers short‐term exposure to Australian dollar‐ denominated bank bills with maturity profiles of up to 91 days.   Unlike traditional equity and fixed income indexes, the constituents of which are shares and bonds respectively, the Index consists of synthetic “securities” that cannot be purchased and sold. The constituents of the Index are a series of 13 hypothetical weekly bills, ranging from one‐week to 91 days in maturity that are interpolated using the 24-Hour Cash Rate and the 30‐Day, 60‐Day and 90‐Day Bank Bill Swap rates (BBSW). The credit worthiness of the bills included in the Index is deemed that of prime banks, i.e., the major four Australian banks. The 13 rates are derived from the four rate types described above and applied to each of the 13 hypothetical bills. As the Index progresses to the next weekly rebalancing date the term to maturity of each bill, and the Index as a whole, reduces daily until the shortest bill matures. The face value of this bill is then reinvested in a new bill with a term to maturity of 13 weeks and the term to maturity of the Index increases by approximately seven days. The total amount received on maturity, that is the face value, is reinvested in the discounted value of a new 91‐day bill. The Index is maintained so that maturing bills are reinvested in the discounted value of a new 91‐day bill on the day the cash is received (each Tuesday).

About the Fund:

Ishares Enhanced Cash ETF (ISEC) offers the ability to achieve capital preservation and potentially enhanced regular income with a diversified portfolio of higher-yielding high quality short-term money market instruments, including floating rate notes. The fund Achieve capital preservation and maximise regular current income with a diversified portfolio of higher-yielding high quality short-term money market instruments, including floating rate notes.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Australian Media Companies Enjoying Positive Ad Breaks From Pandemic Outbreaks

Business Strategy & Outlook

An investment in Nine Entertainment requires balancing the strong positioning of its Nine Network division in Australian free-to-air television against the structural challenges facing the industry from proliferating competition for viewers and advertising dollars. The competitive intensity continuing, preventing any sustained improvement in Nine Network’s margins. The same is true for digital

division, which operates in the equally competitive digital advertising space. However, Nine Entertainment has a strong balance sheet and is a high cash-generating business. This provides management with significant flexibility, allowing it to invest in marquee television content, diversify into digital businesses, and engage in capital management initiatives. The group has been

executing admirably to date and culminated in the merger with Fairfax (consummation in December 2018), using mostly Nine shares as consideration.

Financial Strengths

Nine Entertainment is in solid financial health. As at the end of December 2021, the company had net debt of AUD 150 million on a wholly owned group basis, equating to net debt/EBITDA of just 0.4 times.

Bulls Say

  • Nine Entertainment commands a strong position in the Australian free-to-air television industry, with number-two ratings and revenue share positions.
  • The company generates solid free cash flow and boasts a strong balance sheet, key attributes that allow management the flexibility to invest in programming while engaging in capital-management initiatives.
  • Synergy from the merging with Fairfax could be greater than expected, with potential upside from collaboration and savings on newsroom/journalistic resources over time.

Company Description

Nine Entertainment operates Nine Network, a free-to-air television network spread across five capital cities, as well as in regional Northern New South Wales and Darwin. It also owns Australia’s third-largest portfolio of online digital properties, one that reaches more than 60% of the country’s active online audience. The merger with Fairfax combines Nine’s top-ranked TV network and the second-largest newspaper group, topped with a collection of quality digital assets in Nine Digital, subscription video on demand operator Stan, and Fairfax’s 59%-owned Domain. It ensures the merged

entity remains relevant in the eyes of audiences and advertisers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

Domain’s Relatively Low Exposure to Real Estate Price Risk Expected To Underpin Growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Domain offers exposure to favourable trends in the Australian real estate market, but with relatively low exposure to real estate price risk in the long term. The company has generated strong revenue growth in recent years, boosted by an increase in agents using its website, listings, premium listings, and acquisitions. However, similar growth is not expected from these factors in future, as it is projected that Domain now has near saturation of available agents and listings and as such, further acquisitions are not anticipated. 

Domain is expected to generate revenue growth primarily from growth within its residential division, and listings are projected to increase by at least 1%-2% per year, in line with population and dwelling growth over the long term. In addition, it is viewed that Domain can generate above-inflation growth in revenue per listing, as a result of above-inflation listing price growth and an increase in the proportion of premium listings on its website, from around 10% national penetration toward REA Group’s 20%. A revenue CAGR for the group of 12% is forecasted over the next decade. 

Domain currently generates a lower EBIT margin than REA Group and other leading Australian online listings websites; however, the company is expected to achieve margin expansion as a result of strong revenue growth and operating leverage. Although margin improvement is anticipated, a lower margin is forecasted for Domain in comparison to peers, as Domain is the number-two provider, whereas peers are all leading providers in their respective segments.

Financial Strength

Domain is in good financial health, which is partly attributed to the capital-light business model and expected cash flow strength. As with many software companies, most of Domain’s costs relate to employee costs, and the company does not require large capital expenditures to grow. The lack of capital requirements means cash conversion is usually high and cash flows are available for dividend payments and growth investments, such as acquisitions or investments in early-stage businesses. It also means that equity issuance is usually negligible, which means little or no dilution of existing shareholders. Domain is not expected to undertake large acquisitions, in part due to the lack of obvious large acquisition candidates but also due to the present opportunity to invest in and expand its core business.

Bulls Say’s

  • Domain is projected to generate high revenue growth, primarily owing to an increase in revenue per listing as a result of an increase in premium listings. 
  • Domain should benefit from Australian population growth of around 1%-2%, which should equate to a similar increase in dwelling numbers and therefore listings. 
  • Domain’s diversification into real estate-related businesses, such as mortgage, insurance, and utility services, is likely to strengthen the firm’s competitive position by increasing switching costs, and could diversify earnings.

Company Profile 

Domain is an Australian real estate services business that owns real estate listings websites and print magazines, and provides real estate-related services. Domain was formed as a home and lifestyle section of newspapers owned by Fairfax Media Limited (ASX:FXJ) in 1996, and an associated residential real estate website, www.domain.com.au, was launched in 1999. Domain’s real estate listings website has grown to become its core business and the second-largest residential real estate website in Australia, after REA Group’s (ASX:REA) owned www.realestate.com.au. Newscorp (ASX:NWS) owns 60% of REA Group.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

ABN Amro Has a Solid Position in the Attractive Dutch Market

Business Strategy & Outlook:

After emerging from outright government ownership ABN Amro is one of the simpler banks in Europe. It is essentially a retail and commercial bank with limited capital markets activities. Its strong retail deposit base supported above-average profitability until negative interest rates started to bite. Having a lending book dominated by fixed-rate mortgages does not help either. The long-duration lending book forces ABN Amro to use more expensive long-term funding in order to manage liquidity risk, which then compounds margin pressure in a declining interest-rate environment. ABN Amro offers investors exposure to the oligopolistic Dutch banking system where ABN Amro and its two main rivals hold more than 90% of all Dutch current accounts. This is in sharp contrast to the fragmented banking markets that are the norm in much of the eurozone. Historically this concentration supported higher levels of profitability for ABN Amro and its Dutch peers.

ABN Amro has a solid competitive position in Dutch retail banking with a 20% market share in Dutch personal current accounts and a 25% share of business current accounts. This provides ABN Amro with cheap, sticky funding and forms the base from which ABN Amro can cross-sell other products. In a negative interest-rate environment what should be a major competitive advantage has turned into a major headache. In a negative interest-rate environment banks earn negative interest on their surplus liquidity and with essentially a zero interest-rate floor on some of their deposits this leads to a margin squeeze. The injection of liquidity via monetary and fiscal interventions from central banks and governments following the coronavirus pandemic has just amplified this problem as banks are faced with even more deposits from clients flush with cash. ABN Amro cannot pass on negative interest rates to smaller depositors without damaging client goodwill. It is increasingly passing on higher costs to larger clients. Interest-rate hedges only provide protection against interest-rate volatility, not to a long-term decline in interest rates, especially not when rates go negative.

Financial Strengths:

Even after taking into consideration the more onerous capital guidelines under Basel IV ABN Amro is one of the best-capitalised banks in Europe. At the end of 2020 ABN Amro indicated that on a Basel IV basis it has a common equity Tier 1 ratio of over 15%, compared with its internal target of 13%. With an enviable retail deposit base ABN Amro is one of the banks in Europe with the soundest liquidity profile. Retail deposits tend to be sticky as retail depositors are less likely to move to other banks in the search of higher yields. Wholesale funding are much more likely to disappear during periods of stress in the funding markets. Wholesale funding makes up only around 26% of ABN Amro’s total funding.

Bulls Say:

  • ABN Amro is one of the three leading banks in the oligopolistic Dutch banking sector.
  • It has an attractive funding mix with low reliance on wholesale funding.
  • It has a simple, clear, and focused business model and strategy.

Company Description:

ABN Amro Bank is a Dutch bank, and the Netherlands accounts for around 90% of its operating profit. Operationally, retail and commercial banking contributes the bulk of its operating profit, while ABN Amro continues to reduce its exposure to corporate and investment banking. It views private banking as one of its key growth areas.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

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Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

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LICs LICs

Blackstone Remains the Go-To Firm in the Alternative Asset Management Segment

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Blackstone has built a solid position in the alternative asset-management industry, utilizing its reputation, broad product portfolio, investment performance track record and cadre of dedicated professionals to not only raise massive amounts of capital but maintain the reputation it has built for itself as a “go-to firm” for institutional and high-net-worth investors looking for exposure to alternative assets. Unlike the more traditional asset managers, who have had to rely on investor inaction (driven by either good fund performance or investor inertia/uncertainty) to keep annual redemption rates low, the products offered by alternative asset managers can have lockup periods attached to them, which prevent investors from redeeming part or all of their investment for a prolonged period of time. 

Blackstone is one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers with $880.9 billion in total assets under management, including $650.0 billion in fee-earning assets under management, at the end of 2021. The company’s portfolio is broadly diversified across four business segments–private equity (24% of fee-earning AUM and 32% of base management fees), real estate (34% and 39%), credit & insurance (30% and 16%), and hedge fund solutions (11% and 13%) –and it primarily serves clients in the institutional channel. With customer demand for alternatives increasing, and investors in alternative assets attempting to limit the number of providers they use, large-scale players like Blackstone are well positioned to gather and retain assets for their funds. That said, investors in Blackstone are betting that the company’s outstanding investment track record and fundraising capabilities will continue into the future. While the confidence in the firm’s ability to earn excess returns over the next 10 years, it will become increasingly difficult for the company to do so longer-term as increased competition from peers (including more traditional asset managers like BlackRock), continued pressure on fees, and a general maturation of the segment (from a solid period of above average growth due to shifting investor demand for alternatives) weigh on results.

Financial Strengths:

Blackstone’s business model depends heavily on having fully functioning credit and equity markets that will allow its investment funds to not only arrange financing for leveraged buyouts and/or additional debt issuances for the companies and properties it oversees but cash out of them once their investment has run its course. While the company saved itself a lot of headaches during the collapse of the credit and equity markets during the 2008-09 financial crisis by having relatively little debt on its own books, debt levels crept up to less-than-ideal levels during 2010-19. Given that asset managers like Blackstone have a high degree of revenue cyclicality and operating leverage, and are generally asset light, they should not maintain more than low to moderate levels of financial leverage. 

The company entered 2022 with $7.6 billion in longer-term debt (on a principal basis) on its books, with 60% of that total coming due during 2030-50. The company also has a $2.25 billion revolving credit facility (which expires in November 2025) but had no outstanding balances at the end of January 2022. Blackstone should enter 2023 with a debt/total capital ratio of 44%, debt/EBITDA (by our calculations) at 1.1 times, and interest coverage of more than 30 times. On the distribution front, share repurchases have been rare over the past decade, with the company repurchasing (net of issuances) just over $3 billion of stock (most of which was bought back in the past four calendar years). Dividend payments, meanwhile, exceeded $25 billion during 2012-21 and are expected to account for 85% of distributable earnings annually going forward.

Bulls Say:

  • Blackstone, with $650 billion in fee-earning AUM at the end of 2021, is a “go-to firm” for institutional and high-net-worth investors looking for exposure to alternative assets.
  • The company’s ever-increasing scale, diversified product offerings, long track record of investment performance and strong client relationships position the firm to perform well in a variety of market conditions.
  • Customer demand for alternatives has been increasing, with institutional investors in the category limiting the number of providers they use—both positives for Blackstone’s business model.

Company Description:

Blackstone is one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers with $880.9 billion in total asset under management, including $650.0 billion in fee-earning asset under management, at the end of 2021. The company has four core business segments: private equity (24% of fee-earning AUM, and 32% of base management fees, during 2021); real estate (34% and 39%); credit & insurance (30% and 16%); and hedge fund solutions (12% and 13%). While the firm primarily serves institutional investors (87% of AUM), it does serve clients in the high-net-worth channel (13%). Blackstone operates through 25 offices located in the Americas (8), Europe and the Middle East (9), and the Asia-Pacific region (8).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Launching Coverage of No Moat, Stable Moat Trend GoDaddy With an $80 FVE

Business Strategy & Outlook:

GoDaddy’s position as the world’s leading domain registrar creates a unique opportunity to capture demand from newly formed businesses and upsell complementary products beyond domain registration. The one-stop-shop model will appeal to micro- and small businesses looking to establish and manage a ubiquitous online identity with integrated commerce solutions. The initial domain registration process is typically a customer’s first interaction with GoDaddy, and acts as an onramp for additional products. For example, an entrepreneur seeking an online presence for their idea may approach GoDaddy for a domain registration initially, and as a natural extension purchase a subscription to a domain linked email account, website building tools and commerce solutions. 

GoDaddy has expanded its offering beyond domain registration to include a domain aftermarket platform, website design, security and hosting services, productivity tools such as email, and omni-commerce solutions. While domain registration remains the company’s core offering, GoDaddy made a strategic shift into the omni-commerce market via the 2021 acquisition of payment processing platform Poynt. This acquisition complements the company’s existing product suite and allows GoDaddy to compete more directly with providers such as narrow-moat Block (owner of Square) and narrow-moat Shopify. While the company’s shift into payment processing remains in its infancy, GoDaddy aspires to offer payment functionality across all surfaces including attaching it to every new domain registered. However, GoDaddy is pursuing growth in a crowded market with several established providers, and the company is expected to face challenges upselling products to existing clients due to customer switching costs and inertia. While the GoDaddy will have greater success upselling products to newly formed businesses or those upgrading from a subpar product, the company will need to maintain competitive pricing over the medium term to take share, limiting margin upside. In conjunction, GoDaddy’s core offering is commoditized, with new entrants such as Google Domains increasing pricing pressure.

Financial Strengths: 

GoDaddy’s balance sheet is stretched as the company has increased leverage to support growth and return capital to shareholders. As of year-end fiscal 2021, the company had a net debt position of about $2.6 billion and reported $3.9 billion of long-term debt from a credit facility and senior notes. This includes $800 million of senior notes issued in February 2021 intended to fund working and capital expenditure, as well provide headroom for strategic acquisitions. While this has increased the company’s leverage, the GoDaddy will be able to meet interest and maturity payments on outstanding debt over our forecast period. the company will remain compliant with the operating and financial covenant’s related to the various debt instruments including remaining below certain gearing ratios. 

GoDaddy does not pay dividends but instead returns capital to shareholders through a share repurchase program. The company intends to return $3 billion of capital to shareholders over the three years to fiscal 2024, which shall be funded through free cash flow and debt.

Bulls Say:

  • GoDaddy benefits from a highly recognizable brand, economies of scale, and customer switching costs.
  • Omni-commerce is a natural extension for GoDaddy with promising uptake to date.
  • The strategic shift into payment processing should provide opportunity for greater scale-based cost advantage.

Company Description:

GoDaddy is a provider of domain registration and aftermarket services, website hosting, security, design, and business productivity tools, commerce solutions, and domain registry services. The company primarily targets micro- to small businesses, website design professionals, registrar peers, and domain investors. Since acquiring payment processing platform Poynt in 2021, the company has expanded into omni-commerce solutions, including offering an online payment gateway and offline point-of-sale devices.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Pandemic-Driven Home Improvement Trend Pushes Demand Forward for Kingfisher; Shares are Undervalued

price of btc is going to breakout

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Kingfisher is a leading home improvement retailer operating under the retail banners of B&Q and Screwfix in the U.K and Brico Depot and Castorama in France, while also expanding in other European markets. Kingfisher has attempted multiple strategies to optimize its product offering and leverage its leading position in the French and British home improvement market with little success delivering excess economic returns. While the coronavirus pandemic has provided unexpected tailwinds for Kingfisher, such as increases in do-it-yourself activity and online penetration rates, operating margins remain below U.S peers, who enjoy greater scale and are thus able to operate at a more efficient cost base. Prior to the pandemic, Kingfisher had not reported an increase in like-for-like sales since fiscal 2017. The COVID-19-driven home improvement trend is unlikely to be maintainable as customers shift expenditures toward services as governments no longer impose lockdown restrictions and rising interest rates lowers accessibility to homeownership, a major driver of home improvement activity.

With consumer demand currently elevated, greater emphasis is placed on Kingfisher’s ability to grow market share through investments into its digital capabilities and own-exclusive brands, especially from trade customers who visit stores more frequently and have a larger basket size. Kingfisher’s retail banners in France are dilutive to the group and will benefit from the reorganization of its logistics operation in the region, which will reduce transportation costs and improve customer service. Self-help measures such as optimizing Kingfisher’s store footprint, lease renegotiations at lower rates and reversing stock inefficiencies will free up cash that will be returned to shareholders via a dividend payout ratio of approximately 40%.

Financial Strengths: 

Kingfisher is in a sound financial position. The group ended fiscal 2022 with a net debt/EBITDA ratio (including lease liabilities) of 1.0 times, below its 2.0-2.5 target range, which provides a cushion for any potential slowdown in DIY activity in the future. The group is also one of the few around with a pension surplus. Kingfisher has very little funded debt, which is comfortably covered by the group’s cash balance.

Kingfisher’s main source of debt are lease liabilities, consisting of GBP 2.4 billion within its net debt position of GBP 1.6 billion as at fiscal 2021-22. Approximately 40% of Kingfisher’s store space is owned (mostly in France and Poland), which provides financial flexibility, as these assets can be monetized through sale and leaseback transactions, a tool Kingfisher has begun to use. Better inventory management, which lags peers, would also improve Kingfisher’s cash generation.

Bulls Say:

  • Demand for Kingfisher’s home improvement products stands to benefit from aging housing stock in the U.K. and France, as well as people spending more time indoors during the pandemic.
  • Self-help opportunities at Kingfisher should help increase operating margins by optimizing its store space footprint and improving logistical inefficiencies across its French operations.
  • As the second-largest home improvement retailer in Europe, Kingfisher has the opportunity to better leverage its size to drive costs down and use its customer knowledge to develop its own products.

Company Description:

Kingfisher is a home improvement company with over 1,470 stores in eight countries across Europe. The company operates several retail banners that are focused on trade customers and general do-it-yourself needs. Kingfisher’s main retail brands include B&Q, Screwfix, and TradePoint in the United Kingdom and Castorama and Brico Depot in France. The U.K. and France are Kingfisher’s largest markets, accounting for 81% of sales. The company is the second-largest DIY retailer in Europe, with a leading position in the U.K. and a number-two position in France.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.