Tag: Street Talks

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Williams’ Deepwater Whale Project One of Several High-Return Growth Opportunities

 The 2018 consolidation of William Partners strengthened Williams’ financial position and lowered its cost of capital. With nearly half of its earnings and cash flow coming from rate-regulated gas pipelines, Williams increasingly looks more like a utility than an energy company. Williams delivered steady performance through turbulent energy markets the last two years, relying on its largely fee-based, long-term contracted revenue and strategically well-positioned assets.

Most of Williams’ growth investment will be directed toward Transco expansions and projects to reduce carbon emissions. Transco capacity will reach 20 bcf/d by 2023 from 10 bcf/d in 2014 and continue to grow as natural gas demand in the eastern U.S. grows. With more than 100 bcf/d in interconnects and regulatory hurdles for competing projects, Transco faces no major competitive threats.

Williams’ other businesses are demonstrating their favorable competitive positions with steady results through volatile energy markets. The Northeast gathering and processing business has a captive customer base in low-cost producing regions. The Northwest pipeline benefits from steady demand from utilities and supply from producers in the Western U.S. Williams is growing and improving the competitive position of its other assets through upstream partnerships.

Financial Strength

Williams has strengthened its balance sheet and dividend coverage in recent years. Its improved credit profile and long-term, fixed-fee contract structures gives Williams financial flexibility to pursue growth investment opportunities, grow the dividend, keep the balance sheet strong, and possibly repurchase shares starting in 2022. 

Williams has raised its dividend to $1.64 in 2021 from $1.20 in 2017 while strengthening its balance sheet. The 2018 consolidation of Williams Partners and elimination of incentive distribution rights resulted in a shadow dividend cut of about 17% for former Williams Partners unitholders.

The flip side was an improved credit profile, higher dividend coverage, and ability to invest in growth without issuing equity. Williams remains engaged in litigation with Energy Transfer over its $1.5 billion payment due to Energy Transfer for its alleged breach of the merger agreement. Williams is seeking damages from Energy Transfer as well and to date has not reserved anything for the $1.5 billion potential payment.

Bulls Say’s 

  • A large, well-positioned network allows Williams to invest in high-return growth projects with minimal regulatory hurdles.
  • After several years of structural and financial moves, Williams is positioned to maintain steady dividend growth for the foreseeable future.
  • Williams is leveraged to U.S. LNG exports via agreements with LNG terminals as a key supplier of gas.

Company Profile 

Williams is a midstream energy company that owns and operates the large Transco and Northwest pipeline systems and associated natural gas gathering, processing, and storage assets. In August 2018, the firm acquired the remaining 26% ownership of its limited partner, Williams Partners.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Fixed Income Fixed Income

UBS Diversified Fixed Income Fund (UBSFIXD)

an experienced investor with more than two decades of industry experience and around nine years at UBS. Grow steers the portfolio from its baseline allocation of 50/50 exposure to global and local fixed-interest markets.

The group philosophy is to find the best return available for a given level of risk, no matter where a bond is issued. Grow expresses thoughtful ideas via an allocation to several internal UBS funds, mostly in the International Bond Fund and the locally domiciled Australian Bond Fund. Further adjustments through overlays shape the portfolio when well-reasoned opportunities arise

Bonds and credit securities can be sourced locally and globally

The fund invests in a number of UBS pooled funds, which can include Australian Bond, Global Credit, International Bond, Asset Backed Securities, Asian Bonds, and cash. The fund uses the split benchmark for portfolio positioning, but the final portfolio has differed meaningfully in the past. This also means that the portfolio’s composition can move around quickly as the team’s view changes and markets move.

As at November 2019, there was around 40% allocated to the international strategy and 44% to the Australian strategy. The fund will also take significant duration and credit bets. During 2014, the fund’s duration position got as large as 1.8 years shorter than the benchmark in 2014 and contributed meaningfully to tracking error. While it was neutralised in April 2015, as at October 2019, it stood around 0.5-year longer than the benchmark.

The portfolio is predominantly made up of investment-grade exposure (typically 60% is in AA and above), but high-yield investments have featured (limited to 30% of the portfolio). China policy banks have been a new exposure since 2019 as they present a relatively attractive yield. As at June 2020, the team managed around AUD 2.6 billion in this strategy.

A balanced and experienced team

The UBS Australian Fixed Income team has been led by head of fixed-income Australia Anne Anderson and senior portfolio manager Tim van Klaveren. They have been with the business for more than 20 years and make for aformidable partnership. However, in October 2020 Anderson announced her retirement from UBS to seek advisory work in a part-time capacity. This means van Klaveren will take leadership of the Australian portfolio management team, and the responsibilities of senior portfolio manager Jeff Grow will increase.

Both are highly experienced with 31 and 26 years’ in the industry. Duties have typically been separated; van Klavaren is chair of the global IG subcommittee and is primarily focused on sector and credit allocation, while Grow is heavily involved in rates and currency positioning. Two additional portfolio managers assist here. On the credit side, Ben Squire leads the research efforts in APAC and has local analyst support. The Australian team has continual access to its global colleagues via the global macro committee, which produces key research for this strategy.

(Source: Fact Set)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Fidelity Global Equities Fund Overview

Our Opinion…

•New PM has solid investing experience, backed by a wider Fidelity analyst team.

On Mr. Kochar’s credentials and whether he is suitable to manage the Fund, Radhika Surie, Investment Director at Fidelity, highlighted in our meeting, that Mr. Kochar is “an experienced global growth-oriented Portfolio Manager. Ashish joins from Columbia Threadneedle and has over 16 years’ investment experience spanning across management of US, Global and Absolute Return products. He previously managed the Threadneedle Global Extended Alpha, American Extended Alpha, American Absolute Alpha and American Select funds. Prior to his 13 plus years at Columbia Threadneedle, he worked at hedge-fund manager, North Sound Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Ashish holds an MBA from Mason School of Business”. Mr. Kochar is expected to work closely with the broader global equities team and leverage the expertise of the 162 strong Fidelity global analysts

•Undermined investment process

 On what will be the investment process which Mr. Kochar will adopt; Ms. Surie highlighted that the process remains to be officially determined (with the Fund’s documents to be updated). However, Ms. Surie highlighted “Ashish is a bottom-up fundamentals-based stock picker. His background in the hedge fund industry has given him a unique perspective, where he approaches investing in public markets like a private equity investor i.e. he likes to take an owner operator approach to stock selection – understanding business model is key. Ashish focuses on three main factors: high return on capital, strong management team and industry analysis which results in a portfolio that has a quality bias. A key metric is total earnings yield. In particular, a focus on operating earnings yield and factors that support growth in operating earnings, whether they come from businesses acquiring growth via factors like M&A; or restructuring via, say, divestitures; developing new products, adding production or distribution capacity. In evaluating management teams, he focuses on management compensation, track record, strategic plan, management accessibility and compensation. At any given point in time, Ashish looks to identify companies that meet a 15% total operating earnings yield potential”.

Downside Risks…

•          PM Ashish Kochar departs Fidelity or the Fund or fails to fit well within Fidelity.

•          The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation.

•          Deterioration in global economy which affect company fundamentals.

•          Liquidity risk and volatility risk.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

ClearBridge RARE Infrastructure Value Fund

Our Opinion…

  • Well-resourced with a highly experienced team. RARE’s investment team is one of the largest in global listed infrastructure with 11 investment professionals focused on analysis of infrastructure securities solely. The Fund is managed by Nick Langley, Shane Hurst and Charles Hamieh and more recently Simon Ong who possess strong credentials and investment experience. PMs Mr. Hurst and Mr. Hamieh are also responsible for the governance and management of the investment process and the Sydney-based Infrastructure Investment team. They report to ClearBridge’s co-Chief Investment Officers and PMs Scott Glasser and Hersh Cohen, who are located in New York, but by and large are left alone to manage the Fund.
  • Strong interest alignment. Relative to peers, the Manager has one of the best remuneration programs which aligns the interest of the investment team with investors. PM remuneration focuses on delivering 1-, 3-, and 5-year performance versus benchmark and peer group whilst research analysts compensation is skewed towards new idea generation, best ideas as measured in the performance model and PM feedback.
  • Investment process yielding proprietary investment Universe. RARE utilises a list of 200 infrastructure companies known as the ‘RARE 200’ as its proprietary investment universe. The ‘RARE 200’ consists of 200 of the most liquid, high quality, high concentration infrastructure companies globally. Additionally, these stocks are screened for specific characteristics including long duration in assets, predictable cash flows, low volatility, inflation protection, and monopolistic or little competition.
Main Details   APIR Code
TGP0034AU
Asset Class
Global Shares
Market Capitalisation Large
Style
Neutral (Value bias)
Fund Size
$846.6m
Fees (MER)
0.974% p.a.
Distribution
Quarterly

Downside Risks…

  • Rising interest rate environment.
  • Deterioration in growth of economies that the Fund invests in. This includes

unfavorable regulations towards infrastructure assets.

  • Key man risk – departures of any personnel on the investment team, but especially, Nick Langley, Shane Hurst and Charles Hamieh and Simon Ong.

Source: ClearBridge Investments Ltd.

Fund Performance

Figure 1: Fund historical performance (as at 30 Jun 2021) – Currency Unhedged

    
(%)FundBenchmark**Out-performance
1-mths+1.5+1.0+0.5
3-mths+5.4+2.8+2.7
1-year (p.a.)+12.0+7.5+4.5
3-year (p.a.)+8.1+7.1+0.9
5-year (p.a.)+7.5+7.3+0.2
Inception*+9.9+7.1+2.8

Source: ClearBridge Investments Ltd. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

* Internal calculations for ClearBridge RARE Infrastructure Value Fund – Unhedged Class A Units. All index data sourced from FactSet. Results over one year annualised. Fund performance is net of fees, assuming all distributions are reinvested and before tax. Performance inception date for ClearBridge RARE Infrastructure Value Fund – Unhedged Class A Units is 31/05/2011.

** OECD G7 Inflation Index +5.5% over a market cycle (rolling 5-year periods)

Fund Positioning

Figure 2: Fund Characteristics and Top 10 Positions (as at 30 Jun 2021)

    
Portfolio Weighted Avg Top 10Weight (%)
Avg Market Capitalisation60.7bnEnbridge Inc5.11
Div Yield (Fwd) Gross3.10%Union Pacific4.85
5 Yr DPS Growth (PA)8.10%Vinci4.57
Gearing (Current)34.00%Exelon Corp4.37
Interest Cover (Historic)3.7xGetLink4.07
EV/EBITDA (Forward)17.20%Cheniere4.06
  American Tower3.93
  Cellnex3.78
  Public Services Enterprise Group3.75
  Ferrovial3.50
  Total42.00

Figure 3: Fund allocation breakdown (as at 30 Jun 2021)

Source: ClearBridge Investments Ltd.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

Crypto Market Logs in 3.5% Drop in Trade, Bitcoin Sheds Weekly Gains

Despite strong optimistic sentiments, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced corrections at the start of the week, falling by 6% as of 9 a.m. IST to close at $39,700.

BTC stayed above $41,000 for the majority of the day until being dragged down by the bears in the early hours of Monday. If the downturn continues, BTC may shortly test its first support at $39,000.

BTC trade volume surged by more than 7% across all exchanges.

Ethereum (ETH) was down 0.8% this week, although it maintained its gains from the previous week. It closed at $2,560, slightly over the $2,530 barrier mark. It is developing support levels at $2,330 and $2,250.

Polygon (MATIC), Stellar (XLM), and Theta (THETA) are among the major altcoins that have lost 5-7 percent in the last 24 hours, while others have lost 3-4 percent.

BTC is expected to bounce back from its present support level of $42,000 this week, with the 20-week moving average being tested afterwards. If BTC maintains its position, ETH’s hard fork, which went live on August 4, should continue to fuel momentum in the larger altcoin market.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

MA1 Suspended from trading as the Restructure to an ETMF Continues

For the half-year ended December 31, 2020, the gross portfolio return before all fees and expenses was roughly 44.36 percent.

MA1 shareholders unanimously approved the company’s restructuring as an Exchange Traded Managed Fund on May 10th (ETMF).

MA1 was taken off the market on May 28th and will be delisted on June 1st.

Units in the newly formed ETMF Monash Absolute Active Trust (Hedge Fund) are being issued to shareholders on an in-specie basis, with the new ticker MAAT slated to begin trading on the ASX on June 10th.

The ETMF will use a Single Unit (dual registry) Structure, allowing unit holders to buy and sell units on or off the market.

Company Profile

In 2012, Monash Investors was established by one of Australia’s most experienced fund managers in Simon Shields, the previous head of equities at both UBS and CFS, and Shane Fitzgerald a senior equity analyst from UBS and JPMorgan. The firm was set up to manage money in a way that both Simon and Shane felt was simply smarter than riding the share market up and down, instead, attempting to achieve targeted positive returns of double digits p.a. after fees, over a full market cycle while seeking to avoid loss of capital over the medium term. Importantly, it was the experience gained across multiple investment styles and in seeing the pitfalls in managing very large pools of capital that shaped the way the Fund is managed today.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

An e-commerce behemoth could be on the verge of making a huge foray into cryptocurrency.

So, what’s the deal?

A job offering for a “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead” was recently posted on Amazon. The individual in charge of the e-commerce giant’s blockchain strategy and product roadmap will be tasked with filling the position.

Following a report from City A.M. on Monday, enthusiasm about Amazon’s digital currency plans reached a fevered pitch. Amazon is “absolutely” preparing up to take Bitcoin payments by the end of the year, according to the British financial journal, and plans to develop its own cryptocurrency by 2022.

Amazon, on the other hand, refuted City A.M.’s assertions, telling Bloomberg that “despite our interest in the industry, the conjecture that has ensued surrounding our precise plans for cryptocurrencies is not true.”           

Despite this, Amazon stated that it is keen to learn more about digital currencies and how they might be integrated into its large e-commerce network. The business stated, “We remain committed on investigating what this could look like for people shopping on Amazon.”

So, what’s next?

It would be a game-changer for the crypto business if Amazon accepted Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment. The action would immediately increase Bitcoin’s legitimacy and usability. As a result, the value of the cryptoasset would most likely increase.

Even if this happens, it will most likely take some time. In the interim, there are numerous dangers to be aware of. For instance, crypto investors should be on the lookout for a possible crackdown on stablecoin issuer Tether, which has piqued authorities’ interest in recent weeks after investors raised concerns about its reserve statements’ lack of clarity.

Source: Factset

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

A look at the most recent commodity expert opinions and forecasts: forecast for resources; coal and iron ore

China’s demand for commodities is expected to weaken in the second half of 2021, according to analysts, but this will be largely offset by stronger demand outside of China and the global shift to a low-carbon economy.

The development of the more virulent Delta strain of coronavirus has hampered mobility and growth forecasts, putting pressure on commodities in recent weeks. However, central banks have signalling more aggressive policy positions, with several announcing a reduction in bond purchases.

The vigourous drive in China to put inflationary pressure on industrial metals prices, such as steel, is a third issue. After the run-up that brought copper and iron ore prices to all-time highs, the situation in the second half will be more unpredictable.

Coal

Spot prices for coking (metallurgical) coal have risen since the start of May, but the CBA analysts believe a peak is building, as some steel product margins are now declining.

However, thermal coal prices have remained high due to supply concerns and seasonal demand from a warmer-than-usual summer in North Asia. Thermal coal prices have climbed thrice since the commencement of the pandemic, according to Longview Economics.

Over 2020, China’s coal power capacity increased by 3%, while additions outside of China totalled just 9GW and retirements were 25GW. While a result, China’s coal capacity continues to expand even as the rest of the world cuts back.

Iron Ore

China’s economic report for June is unlikely to allay fears of slowing growth. As a result, ANZ Bank analysts expect that downward pressure on iron ore prices will intensify.

Despite the fact that the market remains tight, a severe correction is unlikely. While demand outside of China may be able to compensate for some of the downturn, iron ore prices are projected to fall in the second half, albeit the decline will be limited.

Source: Factset

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

BTI Raises $4m from Share Purchase Plan

85215903 - attractive businessman using mobile phone while having lunch

On May 2021, Net Tangible Asset per Share of per Tax is $1.53 and Net Tangible Assets per Share of post Share is $1.37.

The share purchase plan for Bailador Technology Investments ((BTI)) ended on May 18th. BTI received $4 million in applications from eligible stockholders.

The SPP was launched in April as a follow-up to a $20 million institutional placement, with shares in the SPP being offered at the same price as the institutional placement.

The funds will be utilised to fund a pipeline of investments that the Manager believes will provide investors with good value.

Company Profile

Bailador Technology Investments is a growth capital fund focused on the information technology sector, actively managed by an experienced team with demonstrated sector expertise.  Bailador provides exposure to a portfolio of information technology companies with global addressable markets. We invest in private technology companies at the expansion stage.

(Source: FN Arena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

MXT Raises $192m through Institutional Placement

It seeks to invest 60% to 70% of capital in the Metrics Credit Partners Diversified Australian Senior Loan Fund (DASLF), 20% to 30% of capital in the MCP Secured Private Debt Fund II (SPDF II) and 10% to 20% of capital in the MCP Real Estate Debt Fund (REDF).

The portfolio of MCP Wholesale Investments Trust consists of a portfolio of corporate loans, investment grade and sub-investment grade loans, and diversified across borrowers, industries, the credit risk spectrum and loan products. The investment manager of the trust is Metrics Credit Partners Pty Ltd.

Currently, Annual Yield is 4.61% and Latest Share Price is $2.05.

MCP Master Income Trust ((MXT)) reported on April 26 that it has secured binding commitments from wholesale and institutional investors for 95.9 million new units in MXT at a price of $2.00 per unit, raising $192 million.

The proceeds will be invested in accordance with the investment mandate and target return of MXT.

“The additional investor capital will provide for increased portfolio diversification, which lowers investment risk, expected positive impact on total investor returns as new capital is deployed and invested, enhanced liquidity from MXT’s increased scale, and expected further cost reductions over time,” said Andrew Lockhart, Managing Partner at The Metric.

Company Profile

MCP Master Income Trust (the Trust) is an Australia-based investment trust. The trust, through investment in MCP Wholesale Investments Trust and other trusts, will invest in Australian corporate loans. The MCP Wholesale Investments Trust may make direct investments or invest in Wholesale Funds, which invest directly in portfolios of corporate fixed income through direct lending to Australian companies.

(Source: FN Arena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.