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Funds Funds

The Hartford Capital Appreciation Fund Class C Soaring High, But a Little Safety Won’t Hurt

Process:

Lingering uncertainty about this factor-oriented fund’s potential for sleeve manager and style changes keeps its Process rating at Below Average. 

Between March 2013 and the end of 2017, Wellington Management’s investment strategy and risk group altered this fund from a wide-ranging, single-manager offering to its current form. Six managers now run separate sleeves of the portfolio. The sleeves vary in size, but each is concentrated in 50 or fewer stocks and has distinct emphases, whether value or growth, market cap, or domicile. Gregg Thomas, who took over the investment strategy and risk group in late 2018, controls the aggregate portfolio’s characteristics by adjusting the size of Thomas Simon’s sleeve, which uses a multifactor approach to complement the five other sleeves, and by shifting assets among or even swapping managers to match the Russell 3000 Index’s risk profile. The idea is to let the stock-pickers rather than size, sector, or factor bets drive performance. 

Although regular line-up changes have made it difficult to assess the strategy, there could be more stability in the future. Thomas now envisions making a manager change every three to five years, on average, down from every two years when he took over in 2018. The current roster has been stable only since late 2019, however, when Thomas changed two managers, including replacing a veteran global manager with a relatively inexperienced mid-cap value manager.

Portfolio:

A rotating cast of six sleeve managers has had collective charge of the portfolio since the late 2017 retirement of long-time sole manager Saul Pannell. His departure concluded a transition that started in March 2013 when Wellington Management’s investment strategy and risk group began apportioning 10% of the fund’s assets to different managers–a total that hit 50% by mid-2014 and stayed there until early 2017, after which the group gradually redirected Pannell’s remaining assets. 

The transition to a multimanager offering beginning in 2013 ballooned the portfolio’s number stocks to 350- plus before falling to around 200 since April 2017. The fund’s sector positioning versus the Russell 3000 Index began to moderate in 2013 and has since typically stayed within about 5 percentage points of the benchmarks. Its tech underweighting dipped to nearly 10 percentage points in November 2020 but was back to around 5 percentage points by late 2021. 

Industry over- and underweighting’s tend to stay within 4 percentage points. In late 2021, however, the portfolio was 5.6 percentage points light in tech hardware companies, entirely because it did not own Apple AAPL. The fund’s non-U.S. stock exposure neared 30% of assets in 2014 but has been in the single digits since late 2019, when a domestic-oriented mid-cap value sleeve manager replaced a sleeve manager with a global focus. 

People:

The fund earns an Above Average People rating because its subadvisor’s multimanager roster includes veterans who have built competitive records elsewhere at sibling strategies where they also invest alongside shareholders. Those managers, however, serve this fund at the behest of Wellington Management’s Gregg Thomas. He took over capital allocation and manager selection duties at year-end 2018, when he became director of the investment strategy and risk group. Between March 2013 and year-end 2017, this group changed the fund from a wide-ranging single-manager offering to a multimanager strategy. Six managers now oversee separate sleeves of the portfolio. Growth investor Stephen Mortimer, dividend-growth stickler Donald Kilbride, and contrarian Gregory Pool each run 15%-25% of assets; mid-cap specialists Philip Ruedi and Gregory Garabedian 10%-20% each; and Thomas Simon uses a multifactor approach on 5%-20% assets to round out the whole portfolio’s characteristics. Thomas monitors those characteristics and redirects assets or even swaps managers to match the Russell 3000 Index’s risk profile, leaving it up to the stock-pickers to drive outperformance. That’s led to considerable manager change here. Of the original seven sleeve managers the investment strategy and risk group installed in March 2013, only Donald Kilbride remains; and the current six-person roster has been in place only since Sept. 30, 2019.

Performance:

This multimanager offering has struggled since Wellington Management’s Gregg Thomas took over capital allocation and manager selection duties at year-end 2018. Through year-end 2021, the A shares’ 22% annualized gain lagged the Russell 3000 Index and large-blend category norm by 3.8 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, with greater volatility than each. The fund also has not distinguished itself since its current six-person sleeve manager stabilized on Sept. 30, 2019.

The fund was competitive in 2019’s rally and in 2020’s market surge following the brief but severe coronavirus-driven bear market. Of those two calendar years, the fund fared best against peers in 2020, with a top-quartile showing. But in neither year did it beat the index. 

Results in 2021 were then relatively poor. The A shares’ 15.2% gain trailed the index by 10.5 percentage points and placed near the peer group’s bottom. It was an off year for the sleeve managers’ stock picking. Especially painful were modest positions in biotechnology stocks Chemocentryx CCXI and Allakos ALLK, whose shares both tumbled after disappointing clinical trial data. 

The fund was lacklustre during its four-plus years of transition from a single-manager offering under Saul Pannell to its current format. From March 2013 to Pannell’s 2017 retirement, its 13.1% annualized gain lagged the index by 1.5 percentage points and placed in the peer group’s bottom half.

About Funds:

The firm maintains a long-standing relationship with well-respected subadvisor Wellington Management Company. Wellington has long run the firm’s equity funds–over half of its $116 billion in fund assets–and took the reins of Hartford Fund’s fixed-income platform beginning in 2012. In 2016, Hartford Funds began offering strategic-beta exchange-traded funds with its acquisition of Lattice Strategies and partnered with U.K.-based Schroders to expand its investment platform further. The Schroders alliance added another strong subadvisor to Hartford’s lineup, with expertise in non-U.S. strategies. Hartford Funds mostly leaves day-to-day investment decisions to its well-equipped subadvisors and instead steers product development, risk oversight, and distribution for its strategies. In 2013, the firm reorganized and grew its product-management and distribution effort. Since then, leadership has added resources to its distribution and oversight teams, merged and liquidated subpar offerings, introduced new strategies, evolved its strategic partnerships with MIT AgeLab and AARP, and lowered some fees. That said, fees are still not always best in class but have improved.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Citigroup Remains a Complex and Developing Story

Business Strategy and Outlook

Citigroup has large trading, investment banking, international corporate banking, and credit card operations. The bank’s best performing business is its Institutional Clients Group, or ICG, unit, where the bank’s commercial banking and capital markets operations have scale and a unique global footprint that few can replicate. Citigroup is currently in the middle of a major strategic shift and remains a complex story. The bank is selling off multiple consumer units throughout APAC, will eventually sell its consumer unit in Mexico, and is refocusing on its core ICG unit, North American Consumer, and global wealth. At the end of this process, Morningstar analysts think the bank will be easier to understand, structurally more focused, and will likely have a marginally better return profile, however Morningstar analysts think the bank will still structurally trail its peers from a profitability standpoint.

The bank also has operational issues to solve, which the Revlon payment fiasco and resultant regulatory scrutiny highlighted once again. New CEO Jane Fraser has promised to redouble efforts to clean up internal regulatory issues. In the meantime, the bank has less sensitivity to interest rates than peers and expenses are on the rise as the bank invests in its ICG unit and in regulatory initiatives. Morningstar analysts see Citigroup taking some time before returns are better optimized.

After updating  projections with the latest quarterly results, Morningstar analysts are maintaining a fair value estimate of $83 per share. Morningstar analysts had initially thought to raise its fair value estimate due to no longer incorporating a tax rate hike, however a reevaluation of revenue growth assumptions largely balanced out the benefit of the lower tax rate. Thus, fair value is equivalent to just over 1 times tangible book value per share as of December 2021.

Financial Strength 

As per Morningstar analyst, Citigroup is in sound financial health. Its common equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 12.2% as of December 2021. The bank’s supplementary leverage ratio was 5.7%, in excess of the minimum of 5%. Citigroup’s liabilities are prudently diversified, with just over half of its assets funded by deposits and the remainder of liabilities made up of long-term debt, repurchase agreements, commercial paper, and trading liabilities. Roughly $19 billion in preferred stock was outstanding as of December 2021.

The capital allocation plan for Citigroup is now fairly standard, with the bank generally targeting for roughly 25% of earnings to be devoted to dividends, with share buybacks being flexible in response to the investment needs of the business. As the bank sells off businesses and frees up capital, there could be more room for repurchases, however how much the bank requires for further investment into the business remains an open question.

Bulls Say

  • Citigroup is in the middle of a strategic repositioning, taking major moves such as selling off its consumer business in Mexico and reinvesting in its strong points, ICG and wealth. Citigroup may finally emerge as a structurally improved franchise. 
  • Citigroup remains uniquely exposed to card loan growth and global transaction and trade volumes. As card loans hopefully eventually rebound and as the global economy recovers, these should drive revenue growth for the bank. 
  • Citigroup’s stock is not expensive, trading at less than tangible book value, not a hard hurdle to clear.

Company Profile

Citigroup is a global financial services company doing business in more than 100 countries and jurisdictions. Citigroup’s operations are organized into two primary segments: the global consumer banking segment, which provides basic branch banking around the world, and the institutional clients group, which provides large customers around the globe with investment banking, cash management, and other products and services.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

Cadence final quarter performance for the calender year 2021

On 17 November 2021, CDO listed on the ASX. The Company raised $15.55m as part of the IPO Offer, issuing 5.6m shares at a price of $2.7716 per share (the mid-point of the of the NTA at 31 October 2021). The Company has 15.06m shares on issue and a market cap of $41.9m as at 30 November 2021.

The average stock in the ASX 200 is down over 15% whilst the index is down only 1%. Generally speaking, larger capitalization value-style stocks have held up well whilst smaller capitalisation and growth-style stocks have experienced significant retracement and a reversal in trend.

CDO provides exposure to an actively managed long/short portfolio, with a long bias, of Australian and international securities. Cadence Asset Management Pty Limited (Cadence) is the Manager of the portfolio. Cadence manages the portfolio of Cadence Capital Limited, which listed in 2006, using a similar investment philosophy and process that is used for the CDO portfolio.  The Company has two stated investment objectives: (1) provide capital growth through investment cycles; and (2) provide fully franked dividends, subject to the Company having sufficient profit reserves and franking credits and it being within prudent business practices.

Cadence Opportunities Fund was down 2.1% in December, compared to the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index which was up 2.7% for the month. The Company has had a strong start to FY22 with the fund up 21.1% over the first six months of the year, outperforming the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 16.5%.

The Board has declared a 7.5 cents fully franked half year dividend, an annualised increase of 25% on last year’s ordinary dividends, reflecting the strong performance of the company over the current year. The current share price is $2.92 and interim dividend equates to a 5.1% annualised fully franked yield or a 7.3% gross yield. 

 (Source: FN Arena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Amphenol Expanding Technological and Geographical Breadth through M&A

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is seen Amphenol is a differentiated connector supplier, an excellent operator, and an exceptional steward of shareholder capital. Amphenol competes against myriad competitors in the fragmented electrical component industry, but its broad array of diverse end markets allows it to grow the top line even in the midst of an individual market downturn. It is also viewed the firm’s unique ability to effect cost controls gives it the highest operating margins of its peer group, and allows it to quickly bring its numerous acquisitions up to firmwide profitability. 

It is held, Amphenol provides connectors with high performance and reliability that are specialized for mission-critical applications in harsh environments. As such, it is alleged its customer relationships tend to be very sticky, with customers facing high financial and opportunity costs from switching to another component supplier, as well as higher risk of component failure. It is supposed Amphenol’s customers rely on the firm as a design partner to supply cutting-edge products and enable new capabilities in end applications. As older products become commoditized, the firm is able to maintain high prices with new designs for new sockets. As a result of these switching costs and pricing power, it is made-up Amphenol possesses a narrow economic moat. 

Going forward, it is likely Amphenol to maintain its diversified end market structure and expand its technological and geographic breadth through M&A, which has funded about one third of historical top line growth for the firm. Specifically, it is potential the firm will focus its resources on opportunities that expand its content in individual end products, allowing it to grow revenues at a faster pace than the underlying markets it serves. As Amphenol grows, it is observed it will maintain its best-in-class operating margins by expanding its decentralized organizational structure. The firm operates through more than 125 general managers that operate with great autonomy to respond to end customers’ needs and manage costs, and it is pragmatic this count will grow as the firm adds acquisitions and expands into new markets.

Financial Strength

It is perceived Amphenol is in good financial shape. As of its fiscal year-end on Dec. 31, 2021, the firm carried $4.8 billion in total debt, compared with $1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments. While the firm is leveraged, it is alleged, it generates ample cash to fulfil its obligations. Amphenol has less than $500 million due annually over the next four years, and it has averaged over $1 billion in free cash flow since 2017, generating $1.2 billion in free cash flow in 2021. It is foreseen the firm to average $2 billion in free cash flow over explicit forecast. If the firm were to run into a liquidity squeeze, it has a $2.5 billion revolver available that is currently untapped. It is not anticipated the firm needing to drawdown this credit line, though it has the option to if it wanted to supplement its cash for a larger acquisition. It is believed it will use the excess cash it generates over the next five years to maintain its dividend, conduct opportunistic share repurchases, and make tuck-in acquisitions.

 Bulls Say’s

  • No industry vertical represents more than 25% of Amphenol’s revenue, which insulates it from individual end market downturns. 
  • Amphenol’s organizational structure, featuring more than 120 general managers who operate with high levels of autonomy, gives it an unparalleled ability to control costs and maintain industry-leading margins. 
  • Amphenol benefits from sticky customer relationships, arising from its specialization in mission-critical applications for harsh conditions.

Company Profile 

Amphenol is a leading designer and manufacturer of electrical, electronic, and fiber-optic connectors and interconnect systems, sensors, and cable. The firm sells into a broad array of industries, including the automotive, industrial, communications, military, and mobile device markets, and no single market makes up more than 25% of the firm’s total annual revenue.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

Clime Capital Limited: LIC with returns higher than market yield and regular income through dividends

Clime Capital Limited (ASX: CAM) is a Listed Investment Company (LIC), which listed on the ASX in February 2004. The portfolio is managed by Clime Asset Management Pty Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Clime Investment Management Limited (ASX: CIW), an ASX-listed asset management company with $1.18b funds under management (FUM) and $5.1b funds under management and advice (FUM&A) as at 30 June 2021.

The Company’s primary objective is to provide an above market yield. In addition to this, the Company seeks to provide higher risk-adjusted returns to the benchmark index (ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index) in comparison to its peers. It provides exposure to a portfolio that is divided into three classes: (1) Australian equity exposure; (2) Unlisted fixed income; and (3) Cash. 

The portfolio will predominantly provide exposure to an all cap Australian equities portfolio.

The Manager has the ability to keep safe the cash in case the attractive investment opportunities cannot be identified. While there are no mandated limitations, the Manager will typically hold no more than 30% cash at any given time. The portfolio will comprise 35-55 securities. The Manager is paid a management fee of 1.0% per annum of the gross assets of the Company and is eligible for a performance fee of 20% of the outperformance of the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index, subject to performance being positive.

An investment in CAM is suitable for those investors seeking an above market yield and regular income with the Company paying quarterly dividends. The Company will seek to generate the above market yield from a portfolio of all cap domestic equities and a portfolio of fixed income securities.

CAM provides a slightly unique exposure to other LICs with the addition of the unlisted fixed income exposure combined with the all cap domestic equities exposure.

About the company:

Clime Capital Limited (ASX: CAM) is a Listed Investment Company (LIC) with a long history, with the Company listing on the ASX in February 2004. The portfolio is managed by Clime Asset Management Pty Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Clime Investment Management Limited (ASX: CIW), an ASX-listed asset management company with $5.1b funds under management and advice (FUM&A) as at 30 June 2021. The Company’s market cap has grown over seven-fold since listing. Upon listing, the Company had a market cap of $17.64m. The Company has a relatively open-ended mandate and the portfolio composition has changed over time. The portfolio can currently broken down into three sleeves: (1) Australian equity exposure; (2) Unlisted fixed income; and (3) Cash. The portfolio will predominantly be exposed to domestic equities with exposure to stocks of all sizes with a small exposure to unlisted fixed income investments, which provides additional income to the portfolio and satisfies the interest payments for the Convertible Notes.

(Source: IIR, FNArena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Iron Ore price rise more than offsets Rio Tinto’s modest production weakness

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Rio Tinto’s fourth-quarter production was overall mildly softer than expected. The company’s share of iron ore Pilbara shipments, the key earnings driver, finished the year at 268 million tons. Shipments were down on 2020’s 273 million tonnes with headwinds from weather, delayed expansions and traditional owner relationships post the Juukan Gorge disaster. COVID-19 also reduced labour availability. The destruction of the caves sees the major Pilbara iron ore miners facing additional scrutiny around traditional owner relationships. This has slowed output and growth somewhat but has not materially impacted the value of Rio Tinto shares, given the supportive iron ore price has more than made up for the lower volumes.

Aluminium, alumina, and bauxite production was marginally below our full-year expectations. Copper output in 2021 was about 3% lower than expected and down 7% on 2020 levels. Weaker grades and COVID-19 restrictions on labour hindered output. On guidance for 2022, the main change is an approximate 2% reduction in expectation for Pilbara shipments, which reflects continued headwinds from COVID and traditional owner issues. Shipments are expected to be of 277 million tonnes in 2022, up by 3%.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate of Rio Tinto has been increased to AUD 91 per share. The increase reflects higher the stronger iron ore futures curve and the softer AUD/USD exchange rate, partly offset by weaker production forecasts. The iron ore price is expected to average USD 110 per tonne to 2024, versus our prior USD 100 per tonne assumption. Shares have rallied about 25% in the past two months and are again overvalued. 

The dividend yield generated by the company is a whopping 6.3% during the duration of the 2019 ad 2020.

Company Profile:

Rio Tinto searches for and extracts a variety of minerals worldwide, with the heaviest concentrations in North America and Australia. Iron ore is the dominant commodity, with significantly lesser contributions from aluminium, copper, diamonds, gold, and industrial minerals. The 1995 merger of RTZ and CRA, via a dual-listed structure, created the present-day company. The two operate as a single business entity. Shareholders in each company have equivalent economic and voting rights.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

AMP Capital Corporate Bond Fund Outdoing the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index and The Average Credit Fund

Process:

AMP Capital Corporate Bond provides exposure to a wide range of credit securities within Australian, global, investment-grade, corporate bond, and high yield. The benchmark changed from the Bloomberg AusBond Credit 0+Yr Index to the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index in February 2016, reflecting the fund’s capital preservation and income emphasis since 2012. Monthly distributions are announced and reviewed biannually, which helps income-focused investors manage their expectations. Credit analysis is done on two accounts; first, a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the broader industry sector, and second, issuerand security-specific analysis. 

The analysis is conducted in line with a “score card” methodology that incorporates fundamentals, technicals, and valuations. The primary weighting is to the valuation and fundamental factors as the team believes this is the primary determinant of a positive outcome for investors over the longer term. The duration view is led by the macro team and is established through a similar score card system, which again considers fundamental, sentiment, and technical factors, with the analyst view of valuation playing a key part. The credit strategy panel, comprising senior investment staff, set the overall credit strategy, risk budget, and sector allocations. However, the ultimate duration and credit exposures are determined by comanagers Sonia Baillie and Nathan Boon.

Portfolio:

The vehicle chiefly comprises Australian credit, though it does hold around 5% each in US and UK names. The strategy can hold up to 10% in high yield and 15% in unrated bonds but is usually well below these limits. The portfolio is largely BBB and A rated corporate bonds, with the BBB names providing a slightly larger proportion of the fund’s asset value at nearly 44% to October 2021. Following the coronavirus-driven dislocation, the team took opportunistic exposures in long duration REITs and industrials, some of which have seen partial profit taking with significant spread tightening throughout 2021. 2019 saw the fund rotate back into corporate bonds following the late-2018 sell-off. 

The team believes credit fundamentals are improving and technicals supportive, but valuations indicate little expectation of further spread compression. It wants to maintain income by holding credit, albeit at a reducing amount to late-2021, also using credit derivatives to insulate from wider spreads. The fund’s duration limits were adjusted from plus or minus 1.5 years versus the old credit benchmark, to absolute terms of zero to 4.5 years in October 2014. The fund has been positioned within a duration range of 0.2-0.8 years since the start of 2017 (0.6 years in October 2021), meaning the sensitivity to rising interest rates is low. FUM has steadily declined over the past few years and currently sits at AUD 855 million as of October 2021.

People:

Sonia Baillie (head of credit) has led this portfolio since October 2017, joined by Nathan Boon (head of credit portfolio management) in March 2018. This group, however, is currently transitioning into the Macquarie fixed-income team as part of AMP Capital’s sale to that organisation; completion is expected by mid-2022, creating some uncertainty. The duo gets significant input from head of macro Ilan Dekell, and a team of analysts spread between Sydney and Chicago. Head of credit research Steven Hur was previously a key member until he left the group in December 2021. The fixed-income team is headed by Grant Hassell, who has more than 30 years of experience, though he is the sole member of this quartet not joining the Macquarie investment team in the same capacity. 

Hassell contributes to overall discussions through team meetings and investment committees, acting as the sounding board for the various heads to bring ideas together into a portfolio. While there has been staff turnover among the credit analyst and credit portfolio managers–former managers Jeff Brunton and David Carruthers left in 2014 and 2016, respectively–most key staffers have long tenure. For example, while Baillie was appointed portfolio manager only in 2017, she has been with the team since 2010, has held other senior roles, and worked in the firm’s Asian fixed-income business. Furthermore, AMP Capital has taken steps to improve staff incentives and address staff turnover.

Performance:

Over the long run, this fund has outdone the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index and the average credit fund. That’s not necessarily compelling, given the fund has been running substantially more credit and/or duration risk than those yardsticks. Since AMP Capital slashed the fund’s duration, rival credit funds are a more reasonable benchmark looking ahead; the fund’s historically high duration means we also compare the fund’s history against the Bloomberg AusBond Credit Index, where this strategy has underperformed. The fund’s track record has benefited from higher-than-average credit risk, as well as significant interest-rate risk, that has paid off as rates declined to historically low levels. returns, yet three- and five-year returns fail to beat the average category peer. Given declining global interest rates, the fund reduced its distribution in mid-2017 to 0.275% per month, and then 0.25% per month at the beginning of 2018. This continued through 2021 when distributions dropped to 0.175% by year-end, the shop expects it to remain at these compressed levels, barring unforeseen circumstances. The rate peaked at 0.55% per month in 2012, highlighting that while these distribution indications can be helpful in the short run, they should not be relied on for long-term income expectations.

About Funds:

Though a new home will bring positives to AMP Capital Corporate Bond, it also introduces uncertainties for this diversified credit strategy. AMP Capital’s Global Equities and Fixed Interest business is in the midst of a sale to Macquarie Asset Management, which is expected to complete by mid-2022. Head of global fixed income Grant Hassell is leading the integration. The strategy has benchmarked to the Bloomberg Ausbond Bank Bill Index since early-2016, reflecting the income goals with capital stability. This move followed a history of changes, which under Macquarie’s guidance going forward could see further revisions in approach.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Wipro’s Q3 Aided by Inorganic Growth, but EPS Falls Short; Maintaining INR 495 FVE

Business Strategy and Outlook

Wipro is a leading global IT services provider with the typical menu of offerings, from software implementation to digital transformation consulting to servicing entire business operations teams. Wipro benefits from switching costs and intangible assets, although Morningstar analyst also see it benefiting from a cost advantage. Forays into the higher-value realm of industrial engineering will help ensure that Wipro does not miss out on substantial growth trends in the overall IT services industry.

In many regards, there’s uncanny resemblance between Wipro and its Indian IT services competitors, Infosys and TCS, such as in its offerings, offshore leverage mix (near 75%), or attrition rates (near 15%). However, Wipro has pockets of solutions where it distinguishes itself. 

Wipro isn’t unusual for being an IT services provider with switching costs and intangible assets. These are founded on the intense disruption that customers would experience when changing their IT services provider as well as Wipro’s specialized knowledge of the industry verticals it caters to and the distinct knowledge of its customers’ web of IT piping. But besides these two moat sources, Morningstar analyst think Wipro benefits more from a cost advantage (which we only allot to Indian IT services companies) based on its labor arbitrage model. Morningstar analyst also thinks that benefits from such a cost advantage will diminish over time as the gap between Indian wage growth and GDP growth in primary markets narrows, analyst view that Wipro’s moat is secure as the company’s foray into higher-value offerings and increasingly automated solutions offsets this trend.

Wipro’s Q3 Aided by Inorganic Growth, but EPS Falls Short; Maintaining INR 495 FVE

Wipro gave guidance of 2%-4% sequential revenue growth in its IT services segment for the quarter ahead. All in all, Morningstar analyst maintaining  INR 495 fair value estimate for Wipro and  believe Wipro is overvalued even with shares down 8% upon results–much like other Indian IT services giants Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys.

Third-quarter revenue grew 30% year over year to INR 203 billion due to year-over-year growth in all seven of its sectors led by 50% year-over-year revenue growth in its largest sector, banking, financial services, and insurance, indicating continued strong results from its previous Capco acquisition. Wipro continues to see a large portion of revenue growth stemming from inorganic acquisitions completed earlier in 2021. . Still, IFRS EPS came in at INR 5.42 which missed our expectations of INR 5.64 due to salary increases and additional headcount.

Financial Strength 

Wipro’s financial health is in good shape. Wipro had INR 350 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of March 2021 with debt totalling INR 83 billion. Morningstar analyst expect that Wipro’s cash cushion will remain healthy, as it is expected that free cash flow to grow to INR 118 billion by fiscal 2026. This should allow for continued share buybacks and acquisitions. Morningstar analyst expect that share buybacks over the next five years will average INR 50 billion each year and forecast that acquisitions over the next four years following fiscal 2022 will average INR 9 billion each year. While analyst don’t explicitly forecast dividend increases over the near term, and think Wipro will have more than enough of a cash cushion to undergo any dividend raises as desired without needing to take on debt.

Bulls Say

  • Wipro could benefit from greater margin expansion than expected in our base case as more automated tech solutions decrease the variable costs associated with each incremental sale.
  • Wipro should profit from a wave of demand for more flexible IT infrastructures following the COVID-19 pandemic, as more companies seek to be prepared for similar events. 
  • As European firms become more comfortable with outsourcing their IT workloads offshore, Wipro should expand its market share in the growing geography

Company Profile

Wipro is a leading global IT services provider, with 175,000 employees. Based in Bengaluru, the Indian IT services firm leverages its offshore outsourcing model to derive over half of its revenue (57%) from North America. The company offers traditional IT services offerings: consulting, managed services, and cloud infrastructure services as well as business process outsourcing as a service.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Welltower Poised to Take Advantage of Recovery of Senior Housing Fundamentals

Business Strategy and Outlook

The top healthcare real estate stands to disproportionately benefit from the Affordable Care Act. There is an increased focus on higher-quality care in lower-cost settings. The best owners and operators in the industry, which can provide better outcomes while driving greater efficiencies, should see demand funneled to them from the best healthcare systems. Additionally, the baby boomer generation is starting to enter its senior years and the 80-and-older population, which spends more than 4 times on healthcare per capita than the national average, should almost double over the next 10 years. Long-term, the best healthcare companies are well-positioned to take advantage of these industry tailwinds.

In our view, Welltower will benefit from these industry tailwinds because of its portfolio of high-quality assets connected to top operators in the senior housing, skilled nursing facilities, and medical office buildings segments. The company has also spent years forming and developing relationships with many of the top operators in each segment. These relationships allow Welltower to push revenue enhancing initiatives and cost-control efficiencies at the property level, creating net operating income growth above the industry average, and provide a natural pipeline of acquisition and development opportunities to meet the needs of its growing operating partners. Welltower’s management team is forward-thinking and should be able to produce strong internal growth and accretive external growth.

The coronavirus was a major challenge to Welltower over the past several quarters. The senior population was one of the worst hit from the virus, and a few cases led to quarantines of entire facilities, which dramatically impacted occupancy. However, month-over-month occupancy improved through 2021 as vaccination rates went up, and we remain optimistic about the sector’s longer-term prospects given that the industry should eventually recover from the impact of the virus, supply has started to fall below the historical average and will remain low for several years, and the demographic boon will create a massive spike in demand for senior housing.

Financial Strength

Welltower is in good financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective. The company seeks to maintain a solid but flexible balance sheet, which we believe will serve stakeholders well. Debt maturities in the near term should be manageable through a combination of refinancing, asset sale proceeds, and free cash flow. We expect 2021 net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest to be roughly 7.2 and 3.8 times, respectively, both of which are outside of the company’s targeted range, though we expect the company to return to normal historical levels as the senior housing portfolio recovers. As a REIT, Welltower is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cashflow from operating activities, providing Welltower plenty of flexibility to make capital allocation and investment decisions. We expect the company’s credit rating to remain stable through steady rental income growth in its existing portfolio, which should allow the company to continue to access the debt market in combination with equity issuance and asset dispositions to fund its debt maturities, acquisitions, and development activity

Bulls Say’s

  •  The firm’s intense focus on tenant and operator partnerships produces new off-market investment opportunities, benefiting shareholders. It should see same-store NOI growth above its peers in the senior housing sector due to its operational expertise and the strength of these relationships.
  • Welltower’s diverse strategy allows it to consider a range of opportunities across property types and business models as a means for growth.
  •  Welltower enjoys industry tailwinds, including an aging population and regulatory changes that expand the pool of participants in the healthcare system.

Company Profile 

Welltower owns a diversified healthcare portfolio of over 1,600 in-place properties spread across the senior housing, medical office, and skilled nursing/post-acute care sectors. The portfolio includes over 100 properties in both Canada and the United Kingdom as the company looks for additional investment opportunities in countries with mature healthcare systems that operate similarly to that of the United States. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

TCW Emerging Markets Local Currency Income Fund Class

Approach

A combination of flexibility and caution, as well as a thoughtful approach to country and currency analysis, continue to support a High Process Pillar rating. This strategy’s approach combines fundamental analysis and top-down research with an aim to manage downside risk. Analysts are responsible for setting three-, six-, and 12-month targets for local rates positions, and the team actively trades around currency positions. There is evaluation of interest rates and currencies on a country-by-country basis, and its higher-conviction positions aren’t usually more than a few percentage points off the JPMorgan GBI-Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index’s, a sensible guardrail given the exchange-rate volatility inherent here. 

In addition, it isn’t typically, complete avoid an index constituent, either taking a small position in that country’s rates or currency, which makes sense given the small number of names (roughly 20) in the sovereign bond benchmark. The strategy also allows up to 20% in U.S.-dollar-denominated debt and cash. Still, the process allows plenty of room to manoeuvre. When it’s found that emerging-markets currencies are extremely undervalued, it can take that exposure up to 125%, and when they are expensive it can hedge it to 75%. The portfolio is further diversified by off-index plays, which have included frontier markets (Egypt) and developed markets (Greece). 

Portfolio

The process allows for ample movement in the strategy’s overall emerging-markets currency exposure, which has been dialled up and down in a tactical fashion based on valuations and its market outlook. The portfolio’s overall emerging-markets currency exposure was light (around 75% of assets) following 2012’s big market runup, which served the strategy well when things got tough in 2013. The managers brought that exposure up to the 90% range at the end of the sell-off in 2015 and then let it run in the 110%-120% range as it rallied in 2016 and 2017. Since the pandemic-riled markets in February 2020, the team has kept the portfolio’s overall emerging-markets currency exposure between 93% and 100%, given it has been concerned about U.S. dollar strength. The strategy sticks close to the benchmark, but at times its high-conviction and tactical nature is on full display. In 2020, the team was overweight in longer Brazilian debt based on valuations and favorable real rates, which hurt early on during that year. But off-benchmark moves have helped combat the concentration risk associated with this bogy. The portfolio’s positioning in Egypt was a prime example in 2020: That stake sat at 5% to start the year, and the team cut it completely by the end of March to redeploy to more attractively priced opportunities before building it back to 4% at the end of September. As of September 2021, the team continued to hold a 4% stake in local Egyptian debt given its attractive yield and pending inclusion into the JPMorgan GBI-Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index.

People

This remains one of the more-experienced teams that works well together, but its size hasn’t kept pace with some larger peers. This underpins its People Pillar downgrade to Above Average from High.

Emerging-markets bond veterans Penny Foley and David Robbins took over here in December 2009. Foley cofounded an institutional emerging-markets debt and equity strategy in 1987; Robbins joined her there in 2000 after running emerging-markets trading at Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley. Alex Stanojevic, a trader with the team since 2005, was named comanager in mid-2017, helping build ample transition time for when Foley eventually retires. 

The managers’ supporting cast is experienced and works together well, but it’s half the size of some peers, which can leave the team stretched in an ever-expanding investment universe. The managers are supported by five sovereign analysts led by Blaise Antin, who joined TCW in 2000. Longtime team member Javier Segovia leads a group of three emerging-markets corporate analysts including Stephen Keck, who has focused on this sector for TCW since 2003, and two more experienced analysts who joined in 2011 and 2015. This corporate cast, while experienced, is much leaner than some peers. Additionally, their relative inexperience with Asian corporate credit was partly to blame for 2021’s disappointing performance. As the emerging-markets debt market grows, this midsized team will need to stick to what it knows best to maintain its edge.

Performance 

This strategy’s Institutional share class gained 0.6% annualized from its mid-December 2010 inception through December 2021, ranking third out of 14 distinct strategies in the emerging-markets local-currency bond Morningstar Category. It also outpaced the JPMorgan GBI-Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index by roughly 10 basis points annualized. Though the strategy isn’t likely to reach the heights of its more aggressive competitors in strong rallies, it’s been no slouch. It edged out its typical peer and benchmark in 2016 and 2017, for example, through smart positioning with larger index constituents such as Brazil and Russia, as well as picking out-of-benchmark winners such as the Indian rupee and Egyptian pound. The strategy has held up better than peers and the index in some tough markets thanks to the team’s valuation discipline and smart allocation moves. Taking emerging-markets currency exposure down to 75% of assets and raising cash to around 11% helped going into 2013’s taper tantrum, as did some better performing off-index investments in China and Uruguay. Still, lately there have been a few bumps in the road. The strategy’s 9.3% loss in 

2021 lagged its typical rival by 110 basis points and its benchmark by 90 basis points. Much of this underperformance owed to the team’s overweighting in emerging-markets local-currency exposure, as the U.S. dollar outperformed for most of the year. From a country perspective, an overweighting and long-duration positioning in Mexico and Columbia were painful.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.