Tag: Recommendations

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Salesforce Margin Performance Bodes Well Long-Term; FVE up to $292

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Even as revenue growth is likely to dip below 20% for the first time at some point in the next several years, ongoing margin expansion should continue to compound earnings growth of more than 20% annually for much longer. Sales force’s fair value estimate increased to $292.

Sales Cloud represents the original sales force automation product, which streamlined process management for sales leads and opportunities, contact and account data, process tracking, approvals, and territory tracking. Service Cloud brought in customer service applications, and Marketing Cloud delivers marketing automation solutions.  Sales force Platform also offers customers a platform-as-a-service solution, complete with the App Exchange, as a way to rapidly create and distribute apps. 

Sales force is widely considered a leader in each of its served markets, which is attractive on its own, but the tight integration among the solutions and the natural fit they have with one another makes for a powerful value proposition. To that end, more than half of enterprise customers use multiple clouds. Further, customer retention has gradually improved over time and is better than 90.

Financial strength

Salesforce.com is a financially sound company. The last traded price of Salesforce was 260.85 USD while its FVE (Fair value Estimate) is 292.00 USD, which shows that Salesforce has potential to grow.

Revenue is growing rapidly, while margins are expanding. As of Jan. 31, Salesforce.com had $12.0 billion in cash and investments, offset by $2.7 billion in debt, resulting in a net cash position of $9.3 billion.  Further, Salesforce generated free cash flow margins in excess of 17% in each of the last four years, including 18% in fiscal 2021, which was negatively impacted by COVID-19. In terms of capital deployment, Salesforce makes acquisitions rather than pay a dividend or repurchase shares. 

Bull Says

  • Salesforce.com dominates the SFA space but still only controls 30% in a highly fragmented market that continues to grow double digits each year, suggesting there is still room to run.
  • The company has added legs to the overall growth story, including customer service, marketing automation, e-commerce, analytics, and artificial intelligence.
  • Salesforce.com’s margins are subscale, with a runway to more than 100 basis points of operating expansion annually for the next decade. Indeed, management has put more emphasis on expanding margins in recent quarters.

Company Profile

Salesforce.com provides enterprise cloud computing solutions, including Sales Cloud, the company’s main customer relationship management software-as-a-service product. Salesforce.com also offers Service Cloud for customer support, Marketing Cloud for digital marketing campaigns, Commerce Cloud as an e-commerce engine, the Sales force Platform, which allows enterprises to build applications, and other solutions, such as Mule Soft for data integration.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Improvements in occupancy to be the major driver for driving up G8 revenues

Investment Thesis

  • Trading at a discount to our valuation.
  • With a growing population, the long-term outlook for childcare demand remains positive (organic and net immigration).
  • Increased emphasis on both organic and acquired growth.
  • Increasing exposure to international markets (Asia).
  • Strategic investor China First Capital Group (12.45% stake in GEM) may see a collaborative expansion into the Chinese market.
  • The Company’s national footprint enables it to scale more effectively than competitors and mom and pop shops.
  • A global operator could be interested in acquiring the company.
  • Improve occupancy levels by leveraging – (rough estimates) A 1% increase in occupancy equates to $10-11 million in revenue and a $3 million EBIT benefit.

Key Risks 

  • The company faces execution risk in meeting its FY19 earnings per share (EPS) target.
  • Pricing pressure is being exerted as a result of increased competition.
  • Increased supply in some areas has resulted in lower occupancy rates.
  • Acquisition with a negative impact on value (s).
  • Execution risk associated with offshore expansion.
  • Childcare funding cuts or adverse regulatory changes
  • Australia is experiencing a recession.
  • Dividend reduction

FY21 Result Highlights

  • Revenue of $421.5 million (vs. $308.2 million in CY20 H1 and $429.9 million in CY19 H1) reflects occupancy recovery and the effects of greenfield growth, Victorian Government Covid-19 payments, and the February fee review, offset by divestments.
  • GEM saw an increase in national Core average occupancy to 68.0 percent (from 65.1 percent in CY20 H1), but it remains below pre-Covid levels of 70.4 percent in CY19 H1.
  • Operating EBIT (after lease interest) of $38.9m was up from $19.7m in CY20 H1 (restated) and in line with $38.8m in CY19 H1 (restated), owing to the “benefits of the Improvement Process, February fee review, and greenfield growth being invested in increasing system support and quality.” 
  • The statutory NPAT of $25.1 million was an improvement over the net loss after tax of $244 million.
  • GEM’s balance sheet remains strong, with a net cash position.
  • GEM did not pay an interim dividend, but the Board “expects dividend payments to resume with a full-year CY21 dividend to be paid in CY22.”
  • GEM’s employee remediation programme is well-advanced, with a provision of $80 million pre-tax ($57 million after tax), less costs incurred to date.

Company Profile 

G8 Education Limited (GEM) owns and operates care and education services in Australia and Singapore through a range of brands. The Company initially listed on the ASX in December 2007 under the name of Early Learning Services, but later merged with Payce Child Care to become G8 Education.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Cochlear’s Reported Strong FY21 Results

Investment Thesis

  • Benefits from an Australian tax incentive are possible. The patent box tax regime for medical technology and biotechnology, if legislation is successfully passed, should encourage the development of advancement in Australia by taxing corporate income derived from patents at a concessional effective corporate tax rate of 17 percent, with the concession applicable from income years beginning on or after 1 July 2022.
  • Attractive market dynamics – growing population requiring hearing aids, improved health in EM allowing for greater access to devices such as hearing aids, and a relatively emerging real estate market. There is still a significant, unmet, and configurable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants, which is expected to underpin COH’s longterm sustainable growth.
  • Positions of global market leadership.
  • Direct-to-consumer marketing is anticipated to accelerate market growth.
  • Best-in-class R&D programme (significant monetary investment), resulting in the continuous development of new products and upgrades to the existing suite of products.
  • New product launches are fueling ongoing demand across all segments.
  • Attractive exposure to Chinese, Indian, and, more recently, Japanese growth.
  • A strong balance sheet position.

Key Risks 

  • Recall of a product
  • In China, a persistent coronavirus outbreak is delaying the resumption of hospital operations.
  • The R&D programme fails to produce innovative products.
  • Intensification of competitive pressures.
  • Modifications to the government’s reimbursement policy.
  • The AUD/USD has experienced negative movement.
  • The emerging market does not recover – this has a significant negative impact on earnings.

Key Results FY21 Highlights

  • Sales revenue of $1,493 million was up 10%, or 19% in constant currency (CC), driven by market share gains, market growth, and rescheduled surgeries following Covid lockdowns. Sales revenue increased by 6% (CC) over the previous fiscal year, which was unaffected by the pandemic.
  • Implant units increased by 15% to 36,456 (up 20% in developed markets and 10% in emerging markets). Implant units increased by 7% over the previous fiscal year.
  • The underlying net profit increased by 54% to $237 million, falling within the $225-$245 million range.
  • The underlying net profit margin of 16 percent was higher than the 11 percent margin achieved in FY20, but it fell short of COH’s longerterm target of 18 percent.
  • Statutory NPAT of $327 million (includes $59 million in patent litigationrelated tax and other benefits and $31 million in aftertax innovation fund gains).
  • The Board declared a final dividend of $1.40 per share, bringing full-year dividends to $2.55 per share, an increase of +59 percent, and a payout ratio of 71 percent of underlying net profit, in line with COH’s target payout of 70 percent.
  • COH’s balance sheet position persists, with net cash of $564.6 million at year end, up from $457 million in FY20.

Company Profile 

Cochlear Ltd (COH) researches, develops and markets cochlear implant systems for hearing impaired people. COH’s hearing implant systems include Nucleus and Baha and are sold globally. COH has direct operations in 20 countries and 2,800 employees.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

IRE has agreed to grant EQT for exclusive due diligence

fintech icon on abstract financial technology background represent Blockchain and Fintech Investment Financial Internet Technology Concept.

Investment Thesis 

  • Since 24th February 2021 IRESS’s share price appreciated and traded on less attractive trading multiples and valuations.
  • No Doubt in quality of IRE’s quality with strong Team Management and its upside trade captured share price and trading multiples and hence its trading range bound.
  • Growing superannuation/pension resources bodes well for IRE’s clients, which bodes well for IRE’s product demand.
  • Financial market participants in Australia, United Kingdom and South Africa used use product of IRE widely. In the ANZ Wealth Management market for example, the expanding dynamic of practise self-licensing, strong client retention and increased demand for integrated solutions are major revenue drivers. More than 90% of revenue is recurring.
  • Strong momentum in ANZ Wealth Management’s core growth markets, including as South Africa and the United Kingdom.
  • The introduction of a new product provides prospects for expansion.
  • A strong financial position and a qualified management team.

Key Risks 

  • Subscriptions are down due to dwindling demand from the sell-side and buy-side, as well as financial planners.
  • Competitive platforms/offers (new disruptive technology); competition’s better features and innovation.
  • Risks associated with the system, technology, and software.
  • Clients and their requirements are being impacted by regulatory and structural developments in the financial sector.
  • Deterioration in the equity and debt markets, which could have an adverse effect on terminal demand.
  • The company’s Canadian sector continues to deteriorate.

Key Highlight 2020

  • IRESS’s Revenue was up +1 to $298.7 million on a pro forma basis, as recurring sales now accounts for 90% of overall revenue.
  • IRESS’s Pro forma segment profit of $77.2 million and pro forma EPS of 14.2 cents were up 3% and 6%, respectively, and were in line with full-year guidance; driven by growth in Trading and Market Data, a full-year contribution from OneVue, and good progress with new client implementations across Super, Private Wealth, and in the UK, offset by expected revenue declines in the Australian financial services sector.
  • The cash conversion rate was 90%. (improved from 86 percent in FY20). The Pro forma ROIC was kept at 9% by IRE.
  • IRESS Board Declared Interim Dividend at 16cps, 80% franked.

Company Profile 

Iress is an Australian financial software provider that specialises in the financial markets and wealth management sectors. Its mature financial markets business comprises around 25% of group EBITDA and has dominated the Australian market for around 20 years because of its leading order management platform. The wealth management software business comprises around a third of group EBITDA, and is the main contributor of group earnings growth, with superannuation and enterprise lending software comprising the remainder.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

Good addition for diversification especially for investors looking to gain ESG exposure

taking into account a variety of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. The Fund seeks to provide such a total return approach, offering duration exposure at suitable points in the cycle, as well as defensive positioning in a soaring rate environment, and invests solely in domestic assets, avoiding the importation of global risks (e.g. currency) and offering a different risk profile.

Philosophy of Investing

Bond markets, diverge from fundamental fair value due to a variety of factors such as central bank/government activity, fund flows, and investor positioning. Top down analysis is critical for identifying opportunities to exploit resulting inefficiencies in fixed income markets, while individual stock selection plays a secondary role in adding value for high grade bond markets such as Australia.

Investment Process

The diagram below best summarises Altus’ investment process. The Scenario – based forecasting and building a case for the Best Case, Central Case, and Worst Case is, the most important component of the investment process. By creating a well-thought-out and researched narrative for each case, the investment team is able to answer important questions and describe the macroeconomic landscape. . Generally agree with their current position in each case and the analysis that supports it. Not necessarily agree with their point of view, we do value the analysis and the manner in which the narrative was presented.

Source: Altius Asset Management 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

HT&E Limited (ASX: HT1)

  • Additional cost savings, notably a large reduction in corporate overhead expenditures.
  • The ATO and HT1 are anticipated to reach an agreement in the near future.
  • Changes in media ownership rules could lead to more corporate activity. Upside to the valuation of Soprano (25% interest) 
  • Initiatives for capital management that are still in progress.
  • A solid financial statement.

Key Risks

  • Decline in advertising dollars (radio and outdoor), particularly if Australia’s retail industry is under stress.
  • The structure of radio is being disrupted.
  • Increased tender competition from large players.
  • With worldwide expansion, there is a danger of poor execution.
  • The tax liabilities of the Australian Taxation Office materialize at a higher level than expected by the market.
  • Hong Kong could detract from the group’s performance (Corona virus or protests escalate).
  • Lockdowns relating to Covid-19 are being reintroduced around the country.

1H CY21 group results 

HT1 had a great first half of the year, owing to a solid market recovery. Core revenue increased by 18.2 percent to $109.9 million, underlying EBITDA increased by 55.9% to $30.4 million, underlying EBIT increased by 139.5 percent to $23.7 million, and NPAT increased by 352.8 percent to $16.3 million. On a like-for-like basis, group sales increased by 21%, owing to higher consumer confidence and advertising spend in Australia and Hong Kong. Higher cost of sales (ongoing investment in digital audio capability) and the resumption of marketing and certain discretionary spending that were deferred to the pandemic in the pcp drove up operating costs (up +9% vs pcp, or up +12% on a similar basis). The Board reinstated the dividend and announced a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5cps vs. zero in the PCP due to strengthening market circumstances.

Company Description  

HT&E Limited (HT1) is a media and entertainment company with operations in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. The Company operates the following key segments: (1) Australian Radio Network (ARN) – metropolitan radio networks including KIIS Network, The Edge96.One and Mix106.3 Canberra; (2) Hong KongOutdoor (Cody) – Billboard, transit and other outdoor advertising in Hong Kong, with over 300 outdoor advertising panels and in-bus multimedia advertising across 1,200 buses; and (3) Digital Investments – digital assets including iHeartRadio, Emotive and Conversant Media.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Continued Spending on the Home Improves Profitability at Wide-Moat Home Depot

 to deliver more than $140 billion in revenue in 2021. It continues to benefit from a healthy level of housing turnover along with improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating because of its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying our margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. 

Home Depot should continue to capture top-line growth beyond 2021, bolstered by aging housing stock and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for top-line growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (most recently bolstered by the acquisition of HD Supply). Expansion of newer (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) and existing (such as appliances) categories could also drive demand.

The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 13.8% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric reaching above 15% sustainably over the next decade.

Bulls Say

  • Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should improve productivity and increase domestic share in a stable housing market, increasing sales and margins.
  • The company has returned $56 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years–more than 15% of its market cap. It has consistently increased its dividend and used excess cash to repurchase shares.
  • The addressable pro market is around $55 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up around 10% share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Financial Strength

Home Depot raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. This led Home Depot to end 2020 with a total long-term debt load of more than $35 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 0.92.Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and we expect the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. 

Company Profile

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating nearly 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Oversupply Issues Are Behind Inghams, but Mix Shift to Drag in the Near Term

competition in poultry is intense. Poultry is largely commoditised, and Inghams possesses limited opportunity to differentiate its products, leading to our view that the firm lacks a sustainable competitive advantage required to award an economic moat. Further, Inghams’ customer base is highly concentrated, with the majority of its total sales comprising five customers, including supermarket giants Woolworths and Coles, and quick-service restaurant KFC. Population growth, relative affordability, and changes in consumer preferences have driven chicken consumption to all-time highs in Australia and New Zealand. 

Per capita chicken meat consumption in both Australia and New Zealand has steadily grown at a low-single-digit CAGR over the last decade. Chicken remains the cheapest meat by a significant margin, with the per-kilo retail price of chicken less than half that of pork, lamb, and beef. This price advantage is supported by favourable production dynamics, notably chicken’s superior food conversion ratio, or FCR. The chicken industry remains highly efficient in translating feed into live weight for production, with producers able to convert feed at a rate that is about 1.5 times more efficient than pork and 4 times more efficient than beef. The chicken FCR, measured by kilograms of feed required to produce one kilogram of meat, has fallen from over 2.5 in 1975 to less than 1.8 today.

Financial Strength 

Given relatively high lease-adjusted leverage, and slim operating margins, we rate Inghams’ balance sheet as weak–stronger than poor as we do not see risk of a dilutive capital raising. Net debt/EBITDA improved in fiscal 2020 to 1.2 at June 30, 2021, due principally to earnings recovery and tighter capital expenditure amid COVID-19 uncertainty over the year. This is down from 1.8 in fiscal 2020 and 1.3 in fiscal 2019 following the capital return and share buyback over fiscal 2019. Given heavy investment into automation and operational efficiency, capital expenditure requirements have been elevated, peaking at AUD 106 million during fiscal 2019 at 4% of revenue. 

Our fair value estimate for Inghams to AUD 3.70 from AUD 3.60 due to the time value of money boost to our financial model. Inghams’ fiscal 2021 underlying net profit of AUD 87 million matched our estimates and was at the top end of management’s guidance range. Inghams declared a fully franked final dividend of AUD 9 cents, bringing the full-year distribution to AUD 16.5 cents per share, implying a payout ratio of 71% of underlying EPS. Government-imposed shutdowns shift poultry demand from restaurants to retail, creating inefficiencies as Inghams is forced to adjust production lines. 

Poultry producers struggled to keep up with pantry-stocking and panic buying in March and April 2020, but this sales momentum was not maintained, and the poultry industry entered fiscal 2021 in oversupply. The chicken industry remains highly efficient in translating feed into live weight for production, with producers able to convert feed at a rate that is about 1.5 times more efficient than pork and 4 times more efficient than beef–leading to cost-efficient processing and a smaller environmental footprint. We expect low-single-digit growth in annual per capita chicken meat consumption to 53kg by fiscal 2026, before moderating as chicken consumption approaches saturation.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Inghams benefits from a consumer trend toward protein-rich, fresh, easy-to-prepare meals.
  • Per-capita chicken meat consumption continues to rise as chicken enjoys a relative affordability advantage compared with other meats, such as beef.
  • A shift in Inghams’ sales mix to value-added products could enhance margins.

Company Profile 

Inghams is the largest vertically integrated poultry producer in Australia and New Zealand. The firm enjoys a number-one position in Australia with approximately 40% market share and a number-two position in New Zealand with around 35% share. Inghams supplies poultry products, notably to major Australian supermarkets Woolworths and Coles, and quick-service restaurants McDonalds and KFC. Sales are heavily skewed toward poultry, which includes the production and sale of chicken and turkey products.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Hanesbrands’ Investment Key Brands Under Its Full Potential Plan Support

While the COVID-19 crisis adversely affected 2020 results, we think Hanes’ share leadership in replenishment apparel categories puts it in better shape than some competitors. Hanes’ management forecasts Champion will reach $3 billion in global sales in 2024, up from about $2 billion this year, which we see as an achievable goal. It has already made progress in this area, having achieved a 15% increase in manufacturing output over the past three years. More than 70% of the more than 2 billion apparel units sold by the company each year are manufactured in its own plants or those of dedicated contractors. 

Financial Strength 

Hanes is saddled with heavy debt from its acquisition spree in 2013-18 and closed June 2021 with $3.7 billion in debt. However, the firm also had nearly $700 million in cash and no borrowings under its revolving credit facilities of just over $1 billion. Moreover, we estimate Hanes will receive about $400 million in cash after it sells its European innerwear operations (expected in 2021). Hanes has a stated goal of bringing debt/EBITDA below 3 times by 2024, which we forecast may happen as early as the end of 2022.Hanes has suspended its share buybacks due to the pandemic, but we expect it will resume repurchases on a large scale in 2022. 

The company bought back significant amounts of stock in 2016 and 2017 and repurchased $200 million in shares in early 2020 before the virus spread. Its annual dividend has been set at $0.60 per share since 2017, but we forecast it will raise in 2022 and in subsequent years. We estimate an average annual dividend payout ratio of 38% in 2022-30.Hanes may expand the business through acquisitions, although it has not made a major acquisition since 2018. 

Our 2024 sales estimates for innerwear and activewear are $3.0 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively, up from $2.7 billion and $1.7 billion this year. In the long term, we model annual organic innerwear growth rates of 2%-3%. Although long-term growth in domestic innerwear (45% of 2020 sales) is low, Hanes has been gaining share in some basics categories. Our fair value estimate assumes moderate inflation in wage and cotton prices, resulting in a gross margin that stabilizes at 40%.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Hanes’ Champion is a contender in the hot but crowded athleisure space. The brand is already well known in North America and parts of Europe, and there is significant potential in China and other underpenetrated markets.
  • Hanesbrands has successfully introduced brand extensions that have allowed it to expand shelf space and increase price points in the typically staid category of basic apparel.
  • After a review, Hanesbrands announced a new strategic plan called Full Potential to boost growth and reduce expenses, which should benefit its brand strength.

Company Profile 

Hanesbrands manufactures basic and athletic apparel under brands including Hanes, Champion, Playtex, Bali, and Bonds. The company sells wholesale to discount, midmarket, and department store retailers as well as direct to consumers. Hanesbrands is vertically integrated as it produces more than 70% of its products in company-controlled factories in more than three dozen nations. Hanesbrands distributes products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

TPG Telecom Fiscal 2021 First Half Broadly in Line

or NBN, and take-up of high-traffic products such as Internet protocol television and video streaming, will increase the demand for broadband and backhaul capacity. TPG Telecom’s price-leader strategy still sees the company delivering solid subscriber and market share performance. Product bundling has also become a key segment in the market, with all players using broadband as a lead-in product and cross-selling voice, mobile, pay-TV, and digital streaming services. 

The ownership of submarine cable between Australia and Guam offers the group broader cost advantages. Pricing is mainly a function of demand and supply, available capacity, and the length of cable. Economies of scale play a large part in pricing where costs are measured on per unit of volume. Contracts are structured in typical 15-year

leases, providing some certainty in revenue. Clients are allocated a fixed bandwidth and have the right to on-sell capacity. Maintenance fees of 3%-4% of the lease are also levied.

Financial Strength 

TPG Telecom’s financial health is solid. Historically, management has used debt to finance acquisitions and demonstrated a capacity to pay it down in due course. As of June 2021, net debt/EBITDA was 2.8 times, well below the covenant limit of 3.5 times. Highlights from the 2021 first-half result support the key planks of our positive investment thesis for TPG Telecom. The NBN-inflicted EBITDA damage in the broadband unit is on track to fall less than management’s prior AUD 60 million projection for the full year (AUD 25 million in the first half), down from AUD 83 million in 2020. 

Moderating fall in subscribers (128,000 in June half 2021 versus 361,000 in December half of 2020), and ARPU (underlying post-paid down 1.6% in first half versus an estimated 2.3% in 2020) are signs of likely improvements to come. While shares in narrow-moat-rated TPG have climbed 30% since the May 2021 lows, they remain 13% below our unchanged AUD 7.40 fair value estimate. 

The 4% decline in corporate EBITDA to AUD 236 million was especially disappointing. It was mainly due to a fall in lowmargin legacy services, as underlying EBITDA margin was up to 53.2%, from 52.3% a year ago. Nevertheless, the shortfall in this division, coupled with continuing likely impact from COVID-19 (AUD 11 million in the first half) has led to 2% decline in our 2021 group EBITDA forecast to AUD 1,779 million. TPG’s broadband business will also benefit from management’s concerted push into fixed wireless, to bypass the National Broadband Network, or NBN. Indeed, 17,000 fixed wireless customers were signed up in the current second half to date, just a month after launch of the TPG-branded fixed wireless product. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • Cross-selling opportunities remain for both consumer and corporate markets.
  • The merger with Vodafone Australia increases the scale of the combined entity and allow it to better compete against Telstra and Optus in the Australian market.
  • Further rollout of its fibre network also boosts growth, while incremental cost from an additional user is small.

Company Profile 

TPG Telecom is Australia’s third-largest integrated telecom services provider. It offers broadband, telephony, mobile and networking solutions catering to all market segments (consumer, small business, corporate and wholesale, government). The company has grown significantly since 2008, both via organic growth and via acquisitions, and in July 2020 merged with Vodafone Australia. It owns an extensive stable of infrastructure assets. TPG is also a very nimble competitor in the telecom space, with an aggressive operating culture unencumbered by any legacy issues facing incumbents.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.