Tag: Recommendations

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Technology Stocks

Xero Ltd : Many technology stocks have been caught in an asset price bubble linked to interest rates

Business Strategy and Outlook

The relationship between Xero’s market valuation and interest rates isn’t simple or linear, but it is held it’s been strong in recent years. For example, between early 2017 and late 2020, Xero’s one-year forward enterprise value to revenue multiple increased to 26 from 6 without an equivalent increase in its revenue growth outlook, in experts opinion. During this period, the 10-year Australian government bond yield fell to around 1% from around 3%. It is likely falling interest rates encouraged investors to increase their valuations for Xero, which was a catalyst for self-feeding share price momentum and relative valuation based upward re-valuations. But, if anything, Xero’s reported revenue has been weaker than it is anticipated in recent years. For example, Xero’s fiscal 2021 revenue was 9% below the forecast experts made in 2017.

Although it is well attributed the technology stock rally between early 2020 and late 2021 to interest rate falls, many investors and much of the media attributed it to a permanent increase in demand for information technology products and services, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. However, the realization that many technology stocks have been caught in an asset price bubble linked to interest rates, rather than driven higher by sustainable earnings growth, appears to be occurring, and previously “hot” stocks are experiencing severe share price falls.

However, it is agreed the world has changed over the past four years, and the notion of competition within a global cloud-based software as a service market has evolved to recognize that the market isn’t bound by national borders in the same way as it used to be. Another other option for Intuit would be to acquire Xero but divest businesses in regions where regulatory obstacles exist. This could mean at least acquiring Xero’s U.K. business, which would still strengthen its existing business in an important geography and arguably leave far less viable competitors in other regions.

Financial Strength

At this stage, it is considered an acquisition of Xero by Intuit to be unlikely for several reasons. Unlike United Kingdom based Sage Group’s acquisition-led growth, Intuit has expanded its software organically globally. An acquisition of Xero would create a second platform and brand for Intuit which is uncertain, the company would want to maintain over the long term. Migrating Xero’s customers onto Intuit branded products would also be challenging. However, despite these challenges, an acquisition of Xero by Intuit isn’t completely out of the question. Although Xero’s one-year forward enterprise value to revenue ratio of 12 is still higher than Intuit’s at 10, the premium has fallen significantly to just 23% currently from 139% in December 2020. A continuation of this trend could make Xero attractive, particularly as the firm offers arguably higher revenue growth than Intuit, significant cost synergies, a good global geographical fit, and the removal of Intuit’s main global competitor. The recent increase in interest rates has been swift, with the one-year Australian government bond yield increasing to 0.81% from 0.01% since September 2021, and the 10- year Australian government bond yield increasing to 2.5% from 1.2% over the same period. Experts agree that these trends have been the main cause of the reversal in the technology stock bull market, which began in March 2020. Since November 2021, the S&P/ASX All Technology index is down 29% and the Nasdaq Composite index is down 22%. Concerningly high inflation data is also increasingly indicating that interest rates may have further to rise

Company Profile 

Xero is a provider of cloud-based accounting software, primarily aimed at the small and medium enterprise, or SME, and accounting practice markets. The company has grown quickly from its base in New Zealand and surpassed local incumbent providers MYOB and Reckon to become the largest SME accounting SaaS provider in the region. Xero is also growing internationally, with a focus on the United Kingdom and the United States. The company has a history of losses and equity capital raisings, as it has prioritised customer growth.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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ETFs ETFs

HACK aims to track the performance of an index that provides exposure to the leading companies in the global cybersecurity sector.

Approach

The index tracks the performance of the exchange-listed equity securities of companies across the globe that (i) engage in providing cyber defence applications or services as a vital component of its overall business or (ii) provide hardware or software for cyber defence activities as a vital component of its overall business. The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in the component securities of the index and in ADRs and GDRs based on the component securities in the index.

Portfolio

An ETF Model Portfolio is a carefully selected portfolio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other exchange traded products constructed and managed by a professional investment manager.

The investment manager typically also provides regular reporting on the portfolio’s performance, along with ongoing communication on changes to the portfolios, the rationale for doing so, and broader commentary on the micro and macro environment.

BetaShares offers four series of model portfolios, each of which seeks to achieve capital growth and income streams through a careful blending of asset classes, including Australian and international equities, bonds, cash and commodities. The models are constructed using ETFs and other exchange-traded products, resulting in institutional-quality portfolios that are cost-effective, highly diversified, transparent, and simple to explain to clients.

  • Strategic asset allocation (SAA) ETF model portfolios: Built using forward-looking 10-year expected returns and risk for a diversified range of major asset classes.
  • Dynamic asset allocation (DAA) ETF model portfolios: Utilise return/risk parameters from SAA, rebalanced quarterly based upon BetaShares’ modelling of asset class misevaluations, risk objectives and economic considerations.
  • Dynamic Income model portfolios: Aim to produce total returns that are similar to the dynamic ETF models, but are weighted towards income rather than capital growth.
  • Pension Risk-Managed Model Portfolios: Uses ETPs that aim to provide enhanced income returns and/or less volatile returns through a systematic risk-management overlay.

People

dam O’Connor is a member of the BetaShares Distribution team responsible for supporting Institutional and Intermediary Broker and Adviser channels. Prior to joining BetaShares, Adam worked in stockbroking and advisory with Bell Potter Securities. Alex is responsible for leading the strategy and overall management of the business. Prior to co-founding BetaShares, Alex was closely involved in the establishment and development of several leading Australian financial services businesses including Pengana Capital and Centric Wealth. Alistair is a member of the BetaShares Distribution team, responsible for supporting Institutional and Intermediary Broker channels, as well as supporting the firm’s capital markets activities. Annabelle is a member of the BetaShares marketing team focusing on social media and content. Anthony is responsible for supporting the investment and operations functions at BetaShares. Anton is BetaShares’ internal legal adviser and is also responsible for managing the compliance function.  Ben is responsible for supporting the distribution of BetaShares funds to advisers across the Victoria and South Australia regions. Benjamin is a member of the BetaShares Distribution team, responsible for assisting with client inquiries.

Brendan is responsible for growing and servicing BetaShares Adviser business clients across Western Australia. In this role, Brendan is focused on educating advisers about the role and benefits of ETF’s and SMA’s in client portfolios and sharing updates on the expanding range of strategies available across the BetaShares product suite. Cameron’s responsibilities span supporting all distribution channels and working alongside the portfolio management team. Prior to joining BetaShares, Cameron was a portfolio manager at Macquarie Asset Management, and was responsible for the structuring and management of Macquarie’s listed and unlisted structured product offering. Cameron’s other experience includes Head of Product at Bell Potter Capital, working on JP Morgan’s Equity Derivatives desk and at Deloitte Consulting.

Performance 

The ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF was the first ETF to focus on the cyber security industry. It tracks an index of companies involved in hardware, software and services, classifying the underlying stocks as either infrastructure or service providers. Top holdings include Cisco Systems, Akamai and Qualys.

About Fund

FactSet ETF Analytics Scoring Methodology is one of the first wide-ranging and robust methodologies for evaluating, comparing and contrasting exchange-traded funds. The researchers and analysts at FactSet developed the system. The result of thousands of hours of research, debate and testing, FactSet ETF Analytics Scoring Methodology provides a comprehensive structure for investors to analyze ETFs. FactSet’s quantitative system allows an investor to evaluate a fund at a glance, aggregating a sweeping range of detailed, often-difficult-to-obtain data points. FactSet’s Letter Grade combines the Efficiency and Tradability score evaluating costs to the investor. The combined score is assigned a letter grade (A-F) providing an institutional-caliber view on how well run and how liquid the ETF is. Efficiency includes risks, which are potential costs. Funds that minimize these risks can be more efficient.

(Source: Betashare)

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This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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Categories
Dividend Stocks

Treasury Wine Estates – The Board declared an Interim Dividend of 15cps, representing a NPAT Payout Ratio of 66%

Investment Thesis:

  • Better than expected China investigation outcomes.  
  • Significant opportunity to grow its Asian business (reallocation opportunities) which will provide a more balanced exposure to the region rather than one specific country. 
  • Group margin expansion opportunity from premiumization and good cost control. 
  • The turnaround in Americas business could lead to significantly higher margins.
  • Favorable currency movements (leveraged to a falling AUD/USD).
  • Further capital management initiatives. 

Key Risks:

  • Further deterioration (or worse than expected) outcome from China tariffs / investigation.
  • U.S. turnaround disappoints. 
  • Slowdown in wine consumption in key markets. 
  • Adverse movement in global wine supply and demand. 
  • Increase competition in key markets. 
  • Unfavorable currency movements (negative translation effect).
  • Policy and / or demand changes in China leading to an impact on volume growth. 

Key Highlights:

  • Group net sales revenue (NSR) of $1.27bn were down -10.1% YoY, driven by the divestment of the U.S. Commercial portfolio, lower shipments to Mainland China and reduced commercial wine portfolio volumes in Australia and the U.K.
  • NSR per case of A$95.60 was up +16.1% YoY due to the premiumization of the portfolio.
  • Management noted that 83% of global sales revenue now comes from the Luxury and Premium portfolios, an increase of +8% YoY.
  • Group operating earnings (EBITS) were down -3.6% to $262.4m, however excluding the Australian country of origin sales to Mainland China, EBITS was up +28.3% highlighting solid momentum in other parts of the business. EBITS margin of 20.7% was up +140bps and management continues to work towards their group EBITS margin of >25%.
  • The Board declared an interim dividend of 15cps (fully franked), representing a NPAT payout ratio of 66% (vs target of 55 – 70%).
  • TWE balance sheet is in a solid position with leverage (net debt / EBITDAS) of 1.8x and interest cover of 13.5x. 
  • Company has ample liquidity of $1.4bn available.
  • In Penfolds division EBITS of $165.1m was down -17.4% YoY and margin was down -60bps to 43.1%The performance was largely driven by decline in shipments to Mainland China, with Asia NSR down -31.5% YoY to $203.8m. However, segment NSR and EBITS excluding China were up +49.1% and +32.1%, respectively.
  • In Treasury Americas division EBITS of $85.2m was up +26.9% YoY and margin was up +500bps to 18.3%. Volume and NSR decline of -39% and -7.7%, respectively, was driven by the divestment of the U.S. Commercial brand portfolio in Mar-21.
  • In Treasury Premium Brands division EBITS of $39.0m was up +32.3% and margin improved +210bps to 9.3%. Volumes and NSR declined -11.7% and -6.3%, respectively, driven by the reduced demand seen during 1H22 vs pcp which saw increased pandemic related demand. Margins improved on the back of a +6.1% increase in NSR per case (improved portfolio mix) and improved CODB.

Company Description:

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is one of the world’s largest wine companies listed on the ASX. As a vertically integrated business, TWE is focused on three key activities: grape growing and sourcing, winemaking and brand-led marketing. Grape Growing & Sourcing – TWE access quality grapes from a range of sources including company-owned and leased vineyards, grower vineyards and the bulk wine market. Winemaking – in Australia, TWE’s winemaking and packaging facilities are primarily located in South Australia, NSW and Victoria. The Company also has facilities in NZ and the US.  Brand-led Marketing – TWE builds their brands through marketing and distributes its products across the world.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

CPU Group – The Board declared a 40% franked interim dividend of 24cps, up +4%.

Investment Thesis:

  • Current expectations of aggressive interest rates increase globally. 
  • CPU is globally diversified with a revenue model that generates predictable recurring revenues and strong free cash flow generation.
  • Two main organic growth engines in mortgage servicing and employee share plans should lead to organic EPS growth.
  • Expectations of margin improvement via cost reductions program. 
  • Leveraged to rising interest rates on client balances, corporate action and equity market activity.
  • Potential for earnings derived from non-share registry opportunities due to higher compliance and IT requirements.
  • Solid free cash flow and deleveraging balance sheet.

Key Risks:

  • Increased competition from competitors such as recently listed Link and Equiniti which affect margins.
  • Cost cuts are not delivered in accordance with market expectations.
  • Sub-par performance in any of its segments, especially mortgage servicing (Business Services) as a result of higher regulatory and litigation risks; Register and Employee Share Plans as a result of subdued activity.
  • Exchanges such as ASX are exploring blockchain solutions to upgrade its clearing and settlement system (CHESS). This distributed ledger technology can bring registry businesses in-house and disrupt CPU.

Key Highlights:

  • Group Revenue (ex-MI) was up +4.5% (adjusting for the CCT acquisition, organic operating revenue growth was down -2.2% and excluding event-based revenues and CCT, operating revenue ex MI was up +3.6%) and including Margin Income as well as CCT, total revenue rose +4.6%.
  • EBIT increased +14.2% to $217.9m whilst EBIT excluding Margin Income increased +16.7% to $157.8m (adjusting for CCT, it was up +15.5% to $156.1m) with EBIT ex MI margin up +150bps to 14.4%, largely due to the growth in Employee Share Plans supported by cost management initiatives.
  • Management NPAT was up +16.5% to $137.4m and Management EPS increased by +4.5% to 22.76cps (excluding dilution from the Rights Issue and the contribution from CCT, legacy EPS increased +10.6%).
  • Net operating cash flow increased +63.8% to $203.3m, representing an EBITDA to cash conversion rate of ~66%, up +20%, which combined with capex and net MSR spend, delivered FCF $181.5m.
  • Net cash outflow was $633.4m, after spending $713m on acquisitions net of disposals and $101.9m on dividends.
  • Net debt +99.2% over FY21 to $1342.2m, increasing Net Debt/ EBITDA by +0.95x to 2.02x, at the higher end of target range.
  • The Board declared a 40% franked interim dividend of 24cps, up +4%.
  • Management continues to refine the portfolio and have reclassified the UK Mortgage Services business as an asset held for sale, anticipating the sale of the business in the foreseeable future.

Company Description:

Computershare Ltd (CPU) is a global market leader in transfer agency and share registration, employee equity plans, mortgage servicing, proxy solicitation and stakeholder communications. CPU also operates in corporate trust, bankruptcy, class action and a range of other diversified financial and governance services. 

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Johnson Controls’ Service Offerings Are Gaining Traction

Business Strategy and Outlook

Before 2016, the market had long viewed Johnson Controls as an automotive-parts company because about two thirds of its sales came from automakers. However, after merging with Tyco and spinning off its automotive seating business, now known as Adient, in late 2016, Johnson Controls is now a more profitable and less cyclical pure-play building technology firm that manufacturers heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems; fire and security products; and building automation and control products.

In early 2019, Johnson Controls sold its power solutions business to a consortium of investors for $11.6 billion of net proceeds that the firm used to pay down debt and repurchase shares. Johnson Controls’ prudent capital allocation strategy in tandem with its simplified business model that is clearly showing improving fundamentals have been catalysts for the stock.

 As a pure play building technologies and solutions business, Johnson Controls stands to benefit from secular trends in global urbanization and increased demand for energy-efficient and smart building products and solutions.The COVID-19 pandemic will increase the market opportunity for healthy building solutions, such as air filtration and touchless access controls. These secular tailwinds should allow Johnson Controls to grow faster than the economies it serves. Indeed, over the next three years (through fiscal 2024), the firm is targeting revenue growth at a 6%-7% compound annual rate, compared with expectations of 4%-5% market growth. Key levers behind Johnson Controls’ targeted outperformance include continued product innovation (supporting market share gains and pricing); increased service penetration (a higher margin opportunity); and the firm’s participation in meaningful growth themes (for example, energy efficiency, smart buildings, and indoor air quality solutions).

Financial Strength

After selling its power solutions segment in April 2019, which netted Johnson Controls $11.6 billion, the firm paid down $5.3 billion of debt and repurchased 191 million shares (21% share reduction) for approximately $7.5 billion. The firm’s balance sheet is now in great shape, with a net debt/2021 EBITDA ratio of about 1.8, which is below management’s targeted range of 2.0-2.5. The firm finished its fiscal 2021 with $7.7 billion of debt, about $1.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and $3 billion available on two credit facilities. The firm’s significant liquidity as dry powder for additional buybacks or acquisitions

Bulls Say’s

  •   Johnson Controls should benefit from secular trends in global urbanization and increased demand for energy-efficient and smart building solutions. 
  • The COVID-19 pandemic should increase the market opportunity for air filtration and touchless access control solutions. 
  • Johnson Controls’ free cash flow conversion has been improving, exceeding 100% in 2020-21. A 100% free cash flow conversion is in line with other world-class firms

Company Profile 

Johnson Controls manufactures, installs, and services HVAC systems, building management systems and controls, industrial refrigeration systems, and fire and security solutions. Commercial HVAC accounts for about 40% of sales, fire and security represents another 40% of sales, and residential HVAC, industrial refrigeration, and other solutions account for the remaining 20% of revenue. In fiscal 2021, Johnson Controls generated over $23.5 billion in revenue.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

COE’s results with production of 1.57 MMboe, up +31%; sales volumes of 2.02 MMboe, up +67%, and sales revenue of $95.4m, up +96%.

Shot of elegant smart businesswoman explaining a project to his colleagues with statistics on the computer on coworking place.

Investment Thesis:

  • Strong FY22 guidance provided by management. 
  • Sole will provide significant uplift in production and free cash flow. 
  • Sole’s volumes are mostly contracted out, which provides greater certainty at reduced exposure to price movements. 61% of COE’s 2P reserves (Proved and probable reserves) are under take-or-pay contracts, with uncontracted gas predominantly from 2024 onwards. 
  • Upside from COE’s exploration activity around Gippsland and Otway Basin. 
  • Strong management team led by CEO/MD David Maxwell, who has over 25 years industry / developing LNG projects with companies such as BG Group, Woodside Petroleum and Santos Ltd. 
  • Favorable industry conditions on the east coast gas market – with tight supply could lead to higher gas prices. 
  • Potential M&A activity – especially considering recent de-rating.

Key Risks:

  • Execution risk – Drilling and exploration risk.
  • Commodity price risk – movement in oil & gas price will impact uncontracted volumes. 
  • Regulatory risk – such as changes in tax regimes which adversely impact profitability. 
  • M&A risk – value destructive acquisition in order to add growth assets.
  • Financial risk – potentially deeply discounted equity raising to fund operating & exploration activities should debt markets tighten up due external macro factors.

Key Highlights:

  • COE’s management announced strong guidance relative to FY21: FY22 production guidance 3.0 – 3.4 MMboe (FY21: 2.63 MMboe); sales volume 3.7 – 4.0 MMboe (FY21: 3.01 MMboe); underlying EBITDAX $53 – $63m (FY21: $30m); capex of $24 – 28m (FY21: $32.3m).
  • COE achieved record results with production of 1.57 MMboe, up +31%; sales volumes of 2.02 MMboe, up +67%, and sales revenue of $95.4m, up +96%.
  • The +31% increase in total production to 1.57 MMboe, was driven by higher production from the Sole field and higher sales volumes contributed to a +163% increase in underlying EBITDAX to $25.5m.
  • COE was able to improve performance at Orbost Gas Processing Plant to drive earnings: Underlying EBITDAX up +163% to $25.5m; underlying net loss after tax of $6.0m (H1 FY21: $17.4m loss).
  • Step-change in total company gas production: H1 FY22 average daily rate of 50TJ/day, up +39% relative to 1H21 average daily rate of 36 TJ/day.
  • Athena Gas Plant sales began after successful commissioning.
  • COE retained a solid balance sheet with $92.2m in cash reserves at 31 December 2021.

Company Description:

Cooper Energy Ltd (COE) is an oil & gas exploration company focusing on its activities in the Cooper Basin of South Australia. The Company’s exploration portfolio includes six tenements located throughout the Basin. Gas accounts for the major share of the Company’s sales revenue, production and reserves. COE’s portfolio includes: (1) gas production of approximately 7PJ p.a. from the Otway Basin, most of which comes from the Casino Henry gas project which it operates. (2) COE is developing the Sole gas field to supply 24 PJ of gas p.a. from 2019. (3) Oil production of approximately 0.3 million barrels p.a. from low-cost operations in the Cooper Basin.   

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Strong 2022 Outlook Motivates Us to Lift Eaton’s Fair Value Estimate

Business Strategy and Outlook

 Eaton is a specialized producer of highly engineered products and services. These offerings are designed to solve customer pain points in vital portions of the world’s infrastructure. We believe Eaton has mostly positioned its portfolio in profitable niches that should benefit from secular trends like energy transition and electrification, to propel long-term growth. Eaton’s portfolio can be divided into two portions: it’s more legacy industrial sector and its electrical sector. 

Industrial serves a variety of end markets and houses the aerospace and vehicle segments, while electrical consists of the Americas and global segments. Eaton’s products mostly compete in differentiated niches of its end markets, which we think reduces the risk of commoditization. Moreover, many of its end-market solutions are mission-critical, like fuel pumps in aerospace applications or uninterruptible power supply in hospitals. Others lower customers’ total cost of ownership or compete in industries with a high cost of failure.

 In 2018, the company created a new segment, eMobility, which aims to take advantage of the secular trend toward electric vehicles. It is believed that the company can leverage its technology core competency from its electrical sector while taking advantage of its OEM relationships in its vehicle segment. Of all of Eaton’s businesses, the most bullish trend is in its electrical sector and its aerospace business, given data center growth, necessary upgrades to aging infrastructure, and the eventual commercial aerospace recovery.

After revisiting the Eaton thesis and came away far more bullish on the company after management made two prudent capital allocation decisions to sell the commoditized and secularly challenged businesses in lighting and hydraulics. The recent bolt-ons, particularly Tripp Lite, given growth potential in the data center market are particularly liked. It is now believed that Eaton will likely hit all its upward revised targets by 2025, save for its eMobility margin aspirations, given continued investment needs there. Nonetheless, the market is too generous in its assessment of Eaton based on fundamental, intrinsic valuation.

Financial Strength

Eaton is on a decent financial footing. Eaton’s credit rating had steadily improved under Craig Arnold’s stewardship to single A, but the firm is slightly more leveraged now from a net debt/EBITDA standpoint at 2.4 times as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, it is not a concern as these results are in line with peers, and expect this ratio will come down to under 2 times by 2023 as the firm’s growth returns. It is estimated that 25% of cash on the balance sheet is needed to support Eaton’s global operations, though it is also noted that Eaton is a very strong generator of free cash flow. Further, the firm’s interest coverage ratio (EBIT/interest) is nearly 14 times, which when considered is a strong indicator that the company can safely meet its obligations. Given acquisitions announced at the end of 2020, Eaton will be out of the merger and acquisition market in 2021, given its dividend and share repurchase commitment, but consider the company financially healthy enough to pursue acquisitions once more in 2022 if it should prefer this route over repurchases. At year-end 2020, the company’s pension and other postretirement liabilities’ shortfall totalled just over $1.6 billion, which detracts about $4 from our fair value estimate. Nonetheless, this effect may be overstated in a rising interest-rate environment.

Bulls Say’s

  •  Eaton’s portfolio moves will create lots of value for shareholders and transform Eaton from a 10% ROIC generator to one in the mid-teens. 
  • Investors should welcome many of the secular trends Eaton is positioned to capture, including energy transition, digitization, and electrification as well as the commercial aerospace recovery. 
  • The market could rerate Eaton with an even higher multiple if Congress passes an infrastructure bill. 

Company Profile 

Eaton is a diversified power management company operating for over 100 years. The company operates through various segments, including electrical products, electrical systems and services, aerospace, vehicle, and most recently eMobility. Eaton’s portfolio can broadly be divided into two halves. One part of its portfolio is housed under its industrial sector umbrella, which serves a large variety of end markets like commercial vehicles, general aviation, and trucks. The other portion is Eaton’s electrical sector portfolio, which serves data centers, utilities, and the residential end market, among others. While the company receives favorable tax treatment as a domiciliary of Ireland, most of its operations take place in the U.S.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Airbnb Limiting Pebblebrook To Push Its Rates

Business Strategy and Outlook

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is the largest U.S. lodging REIT focused on owning independent and boutique hotels. After Pebblebrook merged with LaSalle Hotel Properties in December 2018, the company owns 53 upper-upscale hotels, with more than 13,000 rooms located in urban, gateway markets. Pebblebrook’s combined portfolio has a higher revenue per available room price point and EBITDA margin than its hotel REIT peers. 

The recent merger with LaSalle provides Pebblebrook some new avenues to create value for shareholders. The company doubled in size while taking on only a portion of the general and administrative costs, making the combined company more efficient. Pebblebrook’s CEO, Jon Bortz, previously ran LaSalle and acquired many of the hotels in that portfolio. His knowledge of those hotels combined with management’s demonstrated ability to maximize margins should allow him to implement cost-saving initiatives that drive up margins. Additionally, management has begun an extensive renovation program across both the LaSalle portfolio and the legacy portfolio that will drive EBITDA gains over time. 

In the short term, the coronavirus outbreak significantly affected the operating results for Pebblebrook’s hotels, with high-double-digit revPAR declines and negative hotel EBITDA in 2020. However, the rapid rollout of vaccinations allowed leisure travel to quickly return, driving high growth in 2021. It is held the company should continue to see strong growth in 2022 and beyond as business and group travel eventually returns to 2019 levels by 2024 in analysts base-case scenario. However, there are several factors that will remain headwinds for hotels over the long term. Supply has been elevated in many of the biggest markets, and that is likely to continue for a few more years. Online travel agencies and online hotel reviews create immediate price discovery for consumers, preventing hotels from pushing rate increases even though it is nearing full occupancy on many nights. Finally, while the shadow supply created by Airbnb doesn’t directly compete most nights, it does limit Pebblebrook’s ability to push rates on nights when it would have typically generated its highest profits.

Financial Strength

Pebblebrook is in solid financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective after the merger with LaSalle, but it is alleged that additional assets sales will put the company in great financial shape. The company seeks to maintain a solid but flexible balance sheet, which is anticipated will serve stakeholders well. Pebblebrook does not currently have an unsecured debt rating. Instead, it uses secured debt on its high-quality portfolio and takes out unsecured term loans. Debt maturities in the near term should be manageable through a combination of refinancing and the company’s free cash flow. Additionally, the company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition opportunities arise. It is projected 2024, the year it is likely operations will fully return to normal, net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest will be roughly 7.4 and 4.2 times, respectively, both of which are slightly outside of the long-term range for the company but should continue to improve over time.As a REIT, Pebblebrook is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cash flow from operating activities, providing plenty of flexibility for capital allocation and investment decisions. It is held Pebblebrook will continue to be able to access the capital markets given its current solid balance sheet and its large, higher-quality, unencumbered asset base.

Bulls Say’s

  • Potentially accelerating economic growth may prolong a robust hotel cycle and benefit Pebblebrook’s portfolio and performance. 
  • The acquisition of the LaSalle Hotel Trust portfolio provides management many renovation opportunities to drive revenue and margin growth. 
  • After the merger, Pebblebrook’s larger size could increase the company’s negotiating power with online travel agencies.

Company Profile 

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust currently owns upper-upscale and luxury hotels with 13,247 rooms across 53 hotels in the United States. Pebblebrook acquired LaSalle Hotel Properties, which owned 10,451 rooms across 41 U.S. hotels, in December 2018, the company current Pebblebrook CEO founded in 1998, though management has sold many of those hotels over the past few years. Pebblebrook’s portfolio consists mostly of independent hotels with no brand affiliations, though the combined company does own and operate some hotels under Marriott, Starwood, InterContinental, Hilton, and Hyatt brands. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Etsy Inc : Major e-commerce marketplace operator sets sights on encouraging repeat purchase behaviour

Business Strategy and Outlook

Etsy has carved out an interesting competitive niche, jockeying for e-commerce wallet share across a variety of heterogeneous verticals in the long tail of unbranded products. The firm’s four marketplace properties–Etsy, Reverb, Depop, and Elo7–all target non-commoditized inventories (artisanal crafts, used musical instruments, and vintage clothing resale), generate commissions on third-party, peer to peer sales, and strive to create a “treasure hunt” experience around a unique, customizable, and consequently less price elastic product suite.  

Etsy’s competitive strategy is viewed sound, with the quickly growing firm capitalizing on a surge of COVID-19 induced demand, providing one of only a handful of outlets through which customers could purchase facemasks during the nadir of the pandemic. Though mask sales have dwindled, the platform has remained sticky, with Etsy seeing its active buyer base swell to 96 million (up 18% annually) through 2021 despite lapping a halcyon 2020 in which it netted 36 million customers (75% growth from 2019). Experts claim 171% two-year stacked growth reflects investments made well in advance of the demand surge–from moving its marketplace operations to the cloud (through a partnership with Google), to investing heavily in search engine optimization efforts, and tinkering with performance and brand marketing to boost unaided awareness. 

Moving forward, Etsy is expected to continue to add unique inventory (recently onboarding a number of Indian sellers), to expand its burgeoning international operations (44% of fourth-quarter GMV), to continue to improve search functionality and to expand its suite of seller tools and advertising options, while periodically targeting competitively advantaged tuck-in acquisitions that offer exposure to similarly differentiated end markets. Particularly important will be efforts to increase repeat purchase behavior, with the long-term driver of GMV growth likely be increased average revenue per user in lieu of buyer acquisition after the firm achieves saturation in its six key markets–getting buyers to go to Etsy “not just for the cushions, but for the couch.”

Financial Strength

Etsy’s financial position is viewed sound. While the firm’s gross leverage looks high for an e-commerce company (averaging 5.2 times through 2024, according to analyst forecasts), main concerns are alleviated by a highly cash generative business, with free cash flow to the firm clocking in at 25% of sales in 2022, an operating model that requires minimal maintenance capital expenditure, and access to a $200 million credit facility. Moreover, a net debt position of only $1.3 billion as of the end of 2021 (1.6 turns) suggests only modest underlying leverage. Etsy’s convertible debt structure adds an interesting twist to financial statement analysis. The company has three outstanding series of convertible issuances–$1 billion in 0.25% 2021 notes (due in 2028), $650 million in 0.125% 2020 notes (due in 2026), and $650 million in 0.125% 2019 notes. The structure is common among technology firms, and offers a few key benefits; fewer restrictions, choice of cash or share settlement, cheap capital, and the ability to raise straight debt through subsequent issuance, which strikes us as reasonable (and aligns with practices at technology peers like Twitter and Wayfair). Etsy limits potential dilution with a capped call derivative strategy, with subsequent series that have been utilized to prepay outstanding balances. While the principal value of these notes is accounted for in long-term debt, the equity portion (option value) is accounted for as additional paid-in-capital, with premiums amortized as noncash interest expense over the option’s life. Finally, Etsy is expected to maintain substantial financial flexibility in order to meet its allocation priorities–investments in the business, strategic acquisitions, and share repurchases. Consistent with management commentary, any near-term cash dividend is not anticipated (2026 at the earliest, barring acquisitions), with management preferring the flexibility associated with buybacks.

Bulls Say’s

  • E-commerce trial amidst COVID-19 likely pulled forward e-commerce adoption by two to three years, benefiting digital native platforms like Etsy. 
  • After more than doubling its 2019 buyer base, Etsy has likely reached a demand tipping point, with high teens active buyer penetration across its core six markets heightening barriers to success for new entrants. 
  • The offsite advertisements offer a nice vehicle to increase platform take rates, GMV growth, and seller inventory turnover.

Company Profile 

Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace operator in the U.S. and the U.K., with sizable operations in France, Germany, Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche, connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to exchange vintage and craft goods. With $13.5 billion in 2021 consolidated gross merchandise volume, the firm has cemented itself as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space, generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items, advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, the firm connected more than 96 million buyers and more than 7.5 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy, Reverb (musical equipment), Elo7 (crafts in Brazil), and Depop (clothing resale).

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Qantas Airways – Omicron impact on 2H22 underlying EBITDA of ~$650m

Investment Thesis:

  • Attractive way to play the Covid reopen trade for investors.  
  • Aiming for all segments to deliver return on invested capital > weighted average cost of capital.
  • Strong position in the domestic market (Qantas Domestic and Jetstar continue to remain the two highest margin earning airlines in the domestic market).
  • Jetstar is well positioned for growth and rising demand in Asia. 
  • Partnership with Woolworths for Loyalty bodes well for membership and earnings.
  • Oil price hedging in FY22 could contribute to performance.
  • Increased competition in the international segment.
  • Relative to peers, strong balance sheet strength; investment grade credit rating.

Key Risks:

  • Disasters that could hurt the QAN brand.
  • Earnings recovery gets pushed out again due to travel restrictions or return of another Covid-19 variant. 
  • Ongoing price led competition forcing QAN to cut prices affecting margins.
  • Leveraged to the price of oil. 
  • Adverse currency movements result in less travel.
  • Labor strikes. 
  • Depressed economic conditions leading to less discretionary income to spend on travel. 

Key Highlights:

  • Omicron impact on 2H22 underlying EBITDA of ~$650m (after mitigations) with operating expenses for 2H22 to include ~$180m of inefficiencies and ramp up costs.
  • Domestic capacity to be 68% of pre-Covid levels in 3Q22, increasing to 90-100% in 4Q22, equating to total FY22 capacity of ~60%.
  • International capacity to be 22% of pre-Covid levels in 3Q22, increasing to 44% in 4Q22, equating to FY22 capacity of 18%.
  • Loyalty on track to deliver more than $1bn gross cash receipts in FY22 and remains committed to its target of $500-600m underlying EBIT by FY24 after returning to double-digit growth by end of CY22.
  • Net capex (excluding land proceeds) in FY22 of $850m and in FY23 of $2.3-2.4bn.
  • Underlying D&A in FY22 of $1.8bn.
  • Net debt within the $4.4-5.5bn target range by end of FY22 and at the bottom half of range from FY23 onwards.
  • The Recovery Plan delivered $840m in savings since the start of the program and remains on track to deliver greater than $900m by the end of FY22.
  • Balance Sheet repair continued with net debt reduction of -9.8% over pcp to $5.5bn (now within target range), refinancing A$300m bond maturing in May 2022.
  • Total liquidity of $4.3bn including $2.7bn cash and committed undrawn facilities of $1.6bn maturing in FY23 and FY24.
  • Investment grade credit rating of Baa2 from Moody’s maintained. 
  • Shareholder distributions remain on hold. 
  • 1H22 fuel cost declined -75% compared to pre-Covid-19 to $0.5bn, primarily due to a -74% reduction in fuel consumption. 

Company Description:

Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) provides passenger and freight air transportation services in Australia and internationally. QAN also operates a frequent flyer loyalty program. QAN was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.