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AUD/USD starts the week off in hands of bulls

A sharp drop from monthly highs 1% recovered, putting it in a great position to start the week optimistic, boosting commodity-linked currencies.

“The scenario is also likely to dampen interest in both business and pleasure travel to other Australian states, given the potential of becoming trapped is quite real.”

From a daily standpoint, the price is at a fork in the road. A break of support, given the bearish tendency, would be likely to result in a negative extension.

(Source: FX Street)

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Currencies

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie depending on the market’s sentiment

Paper currency. Australian money.

The 0.75 handle has previously served as resistance, so it’s highly possible that we’ll have to work a little to get beyond it. On the downside, we had broken through the 0.75 handle.

If we break below this weekly candlestick, we’ll almost certainly aim for the 0.75 level below, and look closely at the weekly chart, you can see the big head and shoulders pattern that just broke down.

(Source: The Economics Times)

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After the meeting, the RBA will welcome the decline in the value of the Australian dollar.

Even as it starts to reduce its quantitative easing programme, the RBA is expected to applaud the Australian dollar’s reaction to its policy moves, hoping that it would help it achieve its goal of bringing inflation down within its target range. Even as the market begins to price in rate hikes as early as 2022, the RBA repeated on Tuesday that it does not plan to raise the cash rate before 2024. Even as the market starts to price in rate hikes as early as 2022, the RBA repeated on Tuesday that it does not plan to raise the cash rate before 2024.

Following the RBA conference, markets shifted their rate expectations forwards. They had returned to where they were before the meeting by Wednesday. Because of its position, the RBA may be one of the last major central banks to raise interest rates. While many in the market saw the RBA’s actions as hawkish, it continues one of the most dovish major central banks in the world.

Source afr

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Predictions for AUD/USD and NZD/USD — Rising Risk Demand Aids Commodity-Linked Aussie, Kiwi

The AUD/USD concluded at.7490 on Friday, up 0.0059 or +0.79%, while the NZD/USD finished at.6999, up 0.0052 or +0.75%.The surge in Treasury yields in the United States on Friday boosted riskier assets and currencies, with global stock markets surging and commodity-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars gaining traction.

Treasury yields are rising, while U.S. stocks are reaching new highs, and the dollar is weakening

Treasury yields rose further on Friday, as the 3 key US stock indexes soared to new highs, as markets eased off their fears of a faltering economic recovery following COVID-19, which had dominating trading for much of the week. Early in the week, fears of a failing recovery, fueled in part by the spread of the Delta coronavirus, lowered risk appetite and triggered flight-to-safety bond purchases, with some wagering the reflation trade had stopped.

On Thursday, 10-year US government bond yields fell to a four-and-a-half-month low as a result of this action. Investors were cutting short bond positions through July 6, according to data released on Friday, which pushed on yields. Stocks gained as financials and other economically focused sectors recovered from earlier in the week’s selloff driven by growth concerns.

Throughout the week, the Aussies and Kiwis have been under pressure.

The Australian and New Zealand currencies were under pressure for the majority of the week as global risk aversion damaged equities and lowered bond yields, while a further lockdown in Sydney posed a threat to the domestic economy. The news that Sydney’s lockdown will be prolonged for a third week did not assist the Aussie, as the Delta variant outbreak showed no signs of decline.

The country’s economic interruption merely highlighted the necessity for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its stimulus, with Governor Philip Lowe stating that interest rates are unlikely to rise before 2024.

Source finance.yahoo

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Fears over the economy have pushed the Australian dollar to a one-year low.

Investors interested in US bonds

As investors raced into safe assets like US government bonds, the decrease matched a small decline in the New Zealand dollar, which is also closely linked with growth, as well as declines in US and European sharemarkets. Only a few weeks earlier, the main concern on financial markets was that unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus would cause inflation to spiral out of control.

Now, markets are expressing increasing concern about the possibility that a reduction in stimulus from the likes of the US Federal Reserve could hinder the comeback before the global economy has fully recovered from the pandemic.

Reason for drop Aussie dollar

The Australian dollar has dropped in value just days after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a plan to gradually withdraw quantitative easing and stop buying yield curve control bonds in April 2024 rather than continuing it to the next issuance. The initiatives are the first, cautious steps towards reducing the record levels of monetary stimulus, which also include $200 billion in bond purchases to underpin rates and lower borrowing costs across the economy in order to stimulate development.

Spite of low in stimulus, the July meeting was dovish overall, as the RBA reiterated its expectation of raising interest rates in 2024, while market pricing suggests other central banks may move faster. The Fed’s recent effort to contemplate reducing its massive bond-buying programmes against the backdrop of a chronic COVID-19 threat, with new varieties like the delta strain forcing even fully vaccinated nations like Israel to consider fresh lockdowns, has fueled fears that stimulus may be withdrawn.

Comments on Aussie dollars by Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist, NAB

The Australian dollar is extremely susceptible to growth, and there has been a change in focus to growth worries. The RBA’s overall message is that it is dovish in comparison to other central banks. The economy and labour market are strengthening quicker than the RBA anticipated, indicating slowing, but wages growth has not exceeded projections, so no rate hikes are projected until 2024.

Source AFR

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USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bounces off a dip below 50-DMA as Treasury yields recover

From a short-term technical standpoint, the spot has recovered ground above the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 109.80.

This is in accordance with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising to 48.43, moving closer to the centre line.

However, with the momentum indicator still below 50, a test of the 21-day moving average upside hurdle at 110.113 is unlikely.

The increasing 100-day moving average (100-DMA) appears to be the line in the sand for USD/JPY buyers.

(Source: FX Street)

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AUD/USD Price Analysis: Struggles for resistance on the road to recovery

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flattened out, hovering just below overbought zone, supporting the recent market correction.

If the purchasing interest resumes, the bulls will break above the resistance noted above, opening the way to the July 7 high of 0.7536.

Price Analysis

Failure to reclaim the 0.7490 supply zone, on the other hand, could reawaken the selling, resulting in a new downswing towards the 0.7450.

The upward-sloping at 0.7441 could come into play further south.

(Source: fxstreet)

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Ethereum Emerging As the Next Big Crypto

Bitcoin’s popularity seems to be going down

Bitcoin is viewed as a gold substitute, but Ethereum is viewed as a supercomputer upon which additional crypto’s can be built. Ethereum’s designers have already stated that they are working on a more energy-efficient successor to the cryptocurrency, which might be released later this year.

The more interesting fact here is that, while the number of active Ether addresses has increased, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has decreased. This indicates that Bitcoin investors are considering alternative crypto currencies as long-term investments.

Reasons for the decline in Bitcoin’s popularity

Some possible explanations include China’s restriction on Bitcoin mining and environmental concerns highlighted by a number of people, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who confirmed that his company will not accept Bitcoin payments until it becomes more energy efficient. Neither Musk nor Tesla, on the other hand, have sold any of their Bitcoin holdings thus far.

Crypto aficionados remain optimistic that Bitcoin will recover from its present lows, as it has in the past. The coin has been around for nearly a decade and has shown to be durable. This is the first time it has been challenged by another cryptocurrency. It will also be intriguing to watch if Ethereum can keep up the momentum it has gained in recent days.

(Source: India Today)

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AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bear Maintains Control below 83.00

For the previous two weeks, the AUD/JPY has been trading in a price band between 82.80 and 84.20 on the daily chart.

Daily candle stick chart Price action

If price falls below the intraday low of 82.69, it may try the 82.50 horizontal support level before testing the June 21 low of 82.13.

With a bearish crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in the oversold zone. Any drop in the MACD could amplify the bearish trend.

Bears in the AUD/JPY would look to test the 81.99 level, which was reached on February 26.

Alternatively, if price reverses course, it might return to the 83.00 horizontal resistance level, then to the 83.35 high set on June 30.

A daily close above 83.35 would allow the 83.50 horizontal resistance area to open up.

(Source: FXSTREET)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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AUD/USD rises to the 0.7500 area after Federal Open Market Committee minutes

Minutes contain no noteworthy surprises.

According to the minutes, Fed officials believe the criteria of “substantial further progress” required to change monetary policy has not yet been satisfied. Several FOMC members stated that they expect the pace of asset purchases to slow down and those criteria would be met sooner than expected.

Following the minutes, the US dollar retreated across the board, wiping off the previous day’s gains. The DXY fell to the 92.50 level, turning negative. US yields are still hovering around daily lows. The 10-year note is currently trading at 1.31 percent, its lowest closing since February 18.

Short-term Outlook

With the price well below the 20-day simple moving average, the AUD/USD remains negative (SMA). The pressure will be relieved if the Aussie recovers over 0.7540, and it will rise above 0.7600/05. The 0.7560 area, where the 20 and 200-day SMAs intersect, will be a key milestone to watch.

The key support, on the other hand, is at 0.7455. A break below 0.7400 would pave the way for additional losses, with the initial target being around 0.7400.

(Source: FXSTREET)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.