Tag: Australian Market

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Funds Funds Research Sectors

Bennelong ex-20 Australian Equities Fund: distils returns of the 20 largest companies on ASX

The Fund is suitable for investors seeking to distill out the influence of the returns of the largest 20 listed companies on the ASX and looking to tilt towards growth. As a result, the fund invests in stocks outside of the top 20 subsets of the market but with at least a minimum of $250m market cap. The manager is more of a purist stock picker who seeks to invest in companies he feels are on a genuine earnings growth path and feels that such companies are not common and to find these companies requires thorough and focused bottom up research process.

Investment Team:

The BAEP investment team consists of Mark East: Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Keith Hwang: Director, Quantitative Research, Neale Goldstone-Morris: Senior Investment Analyst, Strategy, Kieran Sisson, Doug Macphillamy, Brad Clibborn, Jack Briggs: Senior Investment Analyst and Todd Briggs: Investment Analyst

Key Highlights:

  • The manager conducts deep dive, bottom-up research on companies it invests in. With a thorough understanding of their stock positions, the manager takes high conviction and genuinely active bets relative to the benchmark.
  • The fund has been investing since 2009 – the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis. Since then, there have been several periods where market volatility has tested the manager’s ability to generate returns while following their investment process.
  • The Fund’s focus on stocks outside of top 20 ASX listed companies provides investors an opportunity to diversify and distil growth from typical core domestic equity strategies that are heavily influenced by the performance returns of shares in the top 20 listed companies.
  • The team of eight experienced analysts includes the PM.
  • The fund’s macro analyst provides top down insights on the macro and guides the team to where the team should focus their research.

Downside Risks: 

• An economic recession in Australia/globally, leading to earnings recession

• Stock selection fails to yield alpha 

• Key man risk – the PM (Mark East) departs – given he has the ultimate responsibility of running the strategy

Investment Process:

  • From all of the stock listed on the ASX, BAEP applies a screen to derive an Investment Grade Universe from which to find investment opportunities. The filters include a market capitalisation of greater than $250 million, sufficient liquidity, an earnings track record.
  • Idea Generation aims to identify those stocks within the Investment Grade Universe that warrant particular attention, thereby focusing research efforts on the most prospective candidates. The ideas build up into the Focus List.
  • Stock analysis is extensive and includes quantitative and qualitative analysis including field research.
  • Portfolios are constructed on a stock-by-stock basis. The inclusion, sale and weighting of a particular stock is determined by reference to a number of factors
  • The portfolio is constantly monitored, tested and optimised with ongoing changes.

Performance:

Fund Positioning:

About Fund:

The Fund’s objective is to outperform the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index excluding the portion of return attributed to the S&P/ASX 20 Leaders Index, by 4% p.a. after fees on a rolling 3-year basis. The Fund invests primarily in Australian shares with high quality business models, strong growth, and underestimated earnings momentum and prospects.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Daily Report Financial Markets

Australian Market Outlook – 23 November 2021

Australian-Market-Outlook-23-November-2021Download

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Daily Report Financial Markets

Australian Market Outlook – 22 November 2021

Australian-Market-Outlook-22-November-2021Download

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Daily Report Financial Markets

Australian Market Outlook – 18 November 2021

Australian-Market-Outlook-18-November-2021Download

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Funds Funds

SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund: Decent option for A-REIT investments in a competitive market

About The Benchmark

A sector sub-index of the S&P/ASX 200, this index tracks the performance of Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) and mortgage REITs.

Fund Objective

The SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund seeks to closely track, before fees and expenses, the returns of the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index.

Process 

SLF aims to fully replicate the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index. REITs are listed vehicles that own and operate property. REITs are required to pass on the majority of their income to investors to enjoy favourable taxation arrangements, and distributions are not franked. High payout ratios and an absence of franking mean that REITs typically offer a high headline yield relative to other stock market sectors. SLF is by far the longest running, with an FUM of AUD 650 million as at September 2021, which helps it to maintain trading levels far above most rivals. SPDR doesn’t participate in securities lending for Australian ETFs.

Portfolio

With the relatively short list of A-REIT names in the S&P/ASX 200, the portfolio is understandably concentrated. As at September 2021, the index consists of 24 holdings, with the top 10 accounting for over 85% of the total portfolio. The exposure to the largest current holding, Goodman Group, has ballooned significantly over the past five years to 27% from around 11%. Seeing that the index is relatively untouched by any reconstitutions, portfolio turnover is quite low at 5%. However, in case of an eventual entry or exit of the constituents, the concentrated index is susceptible to reconstitution, which may lead to a meaningfully altered portfolio.

Top 10 HoldingsWeight (%)
GOODMAN GROUP27.07
SCENTRE GROUP11.52
DEXUS/AU8.59
MIRVAC GROUP8.17
STOCKLAND7.98
GPT GROUP7.27
CHARTER HALL GROUP5.93
VICINITY CENTRES4.91
SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA2.20
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT2.06

Sector Allocation

Sub-Industry BreakdownWeight (%)
Diversified REITs34.79
Industrial REITs28.49
Retail REITs23.96
Office REITs9.46
Specialized REITs1.90
Residential REITs1.41

People

The Global Equity Beta Solution team that is responsible for managing this ETF has undergone a leadership transition recently. Effective September 2021, John Tucker has been appointed as the new chief investment officer, replacing Lynn Blake, who has taken retirement. Tucker is a State Street veteran who has been in multiple senior leadership roles within GEBS for the past 20 years. The ecosystem and structure of the investment team is well-defined, where research and trading functions are centralised and spread out globally; however, portfolio managers are based locally. Australia-domiciled passive products are managed by a core team of Tucker and four portfolio managers: Alexander King, Lillian Poon, Andrew Howson, and Elda Dong.

Performance

The fund has managed its tracking difference well, matching up to the benchmark after accounting for management fees. SLF has recorded a return of 6.54% since its inception in 2002. As at the close of 2019, the annualised five-year returns for the fund stood at an attractive 10.55%, outperforming the category returns of 9.87%. The rally was mainly driven by the strong returns of Goodman Group in the latter half of the five-year period.

Total Return1 Month3 Month6 Month1 Year3 Year p.a5 Year p.aSince Inception  p.a
Fund (%)0.384.2712.0730.259.578.636.54
Index (%)0.424.3812.3430.879.878.966.78

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Daily Report Financial Markets

Australian Market Outlook – 19 November 2021

Australian-Market-Outlook-19-November-2021Download

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Dividend Stocks Shares

Cochlear reported solid FY21 results, with earnings up by 54%

Investment Thesis:

  • Attractive market dynamics – growing population requiring hearing aids, improving health in EM providing more access to devices such as hearing aids and relatively underpenetrated market
  • There remains a significant, unmet and addressable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants that is expected to continue to underpin the long‐term sustainable growth of COH
  • Market leading positions globally
  • Direct-to-consumer marketing expected to fast track market growth 
  • Best in class R&D program (significant dollar amount) leading to continual development of new products and upgrades to existing suite of products 
  • New product launches driving continued demand in all segments 
  • Attractive exposure to growth in China, India and more recently Japan 
  • Solid balance sheet position
  • Potential benefit from Australian tax incentive 
  • Subject to successful passage of legislation, the patent box tax regime for medical technology and biotechnology should encourage development of innovation in Australia by taxing corporate income derived from patents at a concessional effective corporate tax rate of 17%, with the concession applying from income years starting on or after 1 July 2022 

Key Risks:

  • Product recall
  • Sustained coronavirus outbreak which delays recommencement of hospital operations in China
  • R&D program fails to deliver innovative products 
  • Increase in competitive pressures 
  • Change in government reimbursement policy 
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD
  • Emerging market does not recoup – significant downside to earnings

Key highlights:

  • COH reported strong FY21 results, with earnings (underlying NPAT) up +54% to $237m and within guidance of $225-$245m, despite Covid-19 impacted surgery activity recovering to varied levels across both developed and emerging markets
  • For FY22, it is expected to deliver net profit of $265‐285m, a 12‐20% increase on underlying net profit for FY21, based on a 74 cent AUD/USD
  • Sales revenue is expected to benefit from market growth, with a continuing recovery in surgery rates across many countries more affected by Covid
  • The management will continue their investment in market growth activities
  • Capex is expected to be ~$70‐90m for FY22 and includes around $20m related to a major process transformation and IT systems upgrade, a program that is expected to be a $100‐120m investment over the next four to five years
  • Effective tax rate is expected to decline to ~25% as a result of the introduction of changes to the R&D tax concession by the Australian government, with legislated changes to take effect from 1 July 2021
  • The Board is committed to maintaining the dividend policy which targets a 70% payout of underlying net profit
  • Record sales revenue of $1,493m, was up +10%, or +19% in constant currency (CC), driven by market share gains, market growth and rescheduled surgeries post Covid lockdowns
  • Implant units climbed +15% to 36,456 (developed markets up ~20%; emerging markets up ~10%), compared to FY19, implant units increased +7%
  • The Board declared final dividend of $1.40 which brings full year dividends to $2.55 per share, up +59% and equates payout ratio of 71% of underlying net profit, in line with COH’s 70% target payout
  • COH’s balance sheet position remains strong with net cash of $564.6m at year-end, improving from $457m in FY20

Company Description: 

Cochlear Ltd (COH) researches, develops and markets cochlear implant systems for hearing impaired people. COH’s hearing implant systems include Nucleus and Baha and are sold globally. COH has direct operations in 20 countries and 2,800 employees.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Nufarm’s Fiscal 2022 Cash Conversion and working capital moves favourable

Business Strategy and Outlook

Nufarm is a major producer of crop-protection products including herbicides, fungicides, and pesticides, selling into all major world markets. The company is leveraged to growing demand for crops for biofuels, and food from rapidly industrialising markets such as China and India. Growth should come from astute brand and offshore business investments and from a customer-service-focused strategy. However, the global crop-protection markets are competitive and earnings are cyclical, given a reliance on seasonal conditions. Sumitomo Chemical’s 16% investment in Nufarm endorses the quality of its global distribution. Collaboration broadens product portfolios and adds distribution in Asia.

Nufarm has a growing presence in North America and Europe. Sound sales momentum has been evident in North America and Europe. Several Chinese companies have previously expressed interest in acquiring Nufarm, but withdrew either because of too high a price demanded by the board, or because of reduced availability of debt. In 2010, Japanese company Sumitomo Chemical bought 20% of Nufarm, subsequently increasing its stake to 23% before diluting to 16%. The resultant collaboration should boost the performance of both companies, given little product portfolio overlap.

Financial Strength

Nufarm’s balance sheet is in great shape. In early April 2020, the company received AUD 1.2 billion net sale proceeds from major shareholder Sumitomo, for the sale of its South American crop protection and seed treatment operations in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile. This significantly bolstered the finances at a very fortuitous time, coming mid coronavirus. Prior to this in January 2020, group net debt had stood at a whopping AUD 1.6 billion. Nufarm’s under-leveraged balance sheet remains a strength. Fiscal 2021 net operating cash flow rebounded strongly from negative AUD 398 million in the pcp to positive AUD 370 million. This reflects a focus on working capital management. It sees net debt down 40% to a modest AUD 173 million, leverage (ND/(ND+E)) of just 8% and net debt/EBITDA very comfortable at 0.5. Net working capital significantly improved post sale of the Latin American business and remains a focus with improved debtor collections, reduced inventory and foreign exchange translation.

Our AUD 7.00 fair value for no-moat crop protection company Nufarm. Underlying fiscal 2021 NPAT improved to positive AUD 61 million against an underlying loss of AUD 67 million in the pcp. NPAT in the fiscal second half was negligible at just AUD 0.7 million. On a full fiscal year basis, APAC revenue enjoyed a sharp turnaround, up 52% to AUD 858 million and segment EBITDA margin nearly doubled to 12.7%. Nufarm shares plunged 8.5% on the day of profit release, a strange response given an all-important strong cash flow performance. The fall may have been in reaction to a decline in salmon demand impacting sales of Omega-3 canola. But there is a long way to run on Omega-3, still in its infancy, and we are unconcerned.

Bulls Say’s

  • Nufarm benefits from potential strength in soft commodities markets. 
  • Nufarm has well-established distribution platforms in most major global agricultural markets. 
  • Product and geographic diversification helps reduce earnings volatility.

Company Profile 

Nufarm Limited is a global crop-protection company that develops, manufactures, and sells a range of crop-protection products, including herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides. Nufarm sells its products in most of the world’s major agricultural regions, and operates primarily in the off-patent segment of the crop-protection market. Nufarm operates along two business lines: crop protection and seed technologies.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

National Australia Bank (NAB) delivered a solid FY21 result despite underlying profit declining

Investment Thesis

  • Ongoing share back should be supportive of share price levels.
  • Well capitalized after the capital raising.
  • Expectations of further customer remediation costs.
  • Impairment charges provisioned for in 1H20 with lower risk of further impairments (especially as a low interest rate environment helps customers and arrears).
  • Strong franchise model with management capable of improving below a 40% cost to income ratio (however we do not factor in management’s long-term target of 35%). 
  • Potential pressure on net interest margins as competition intensifies with other major banks in a low interest rate environment. Though we expect these pressures to slightly alleviate as we move into a higher interest rate environment.
  • Improving return on equity with management proving their abilities in recent times to manage profitability in a low interest rate environment.
  • Strong provisioning coverage.
  • A well-diversified loan book.

Key Risk

  • Low growth environment impacting earnings.
  • Potential cuts or reduction to dividends due to low earnings growth. 
  • Intense competition for loan and deposit growth.
  • Normalizing / increase in bad and doubtful debts or increase in provisioning.
  • Funding pressure for deposits and wholesale funding (increased funding costs).
  • Any legal fees, settlements, loss or penalties associated with ASIC or US-based law suits.

FY21 Results Key Highlights:  Relative to the pcp:

  • Revenue declined -2.4% to $16,729m. Excluding large notable items in FY20, revenue was -3.0% lower, on lower Markets & Treasury (M&T) income, which was challenged due to limited trading opportunities.
  • Cash earnings up 76.8% to $6,558m. Excluding FY20 large notable items, cash earnings were up +38.6%.
  • Cash return on equity up 420 basis points to 10.7%.
  • Net interest margin of 1.71%, was 6bps lower due to M&T. NAB saw NIM pressure due to the low interest rate environment, home lending competitive pressures and a mix shift towards more fixed rate lending.
  • Group Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13% was up 153bps from September 2020 and includes 29bps net proceeds from the sale of MLC Wealth. Leverage ratio (APRA basis) is at 5.8%. Liquidity ratio quarterly average of 128%. Net Stable Funding Ratio of 123%.
  • Fully franked final dividend per share of 67 cents was up from 30cps in 2H20, and brings full year dividend to $1.27 per share, up +111% from 60cps in FY20.
  • Credit impairment charge write-back of $217m (versus $2,762m in FY20) reflecting forward looking provisions and lower underlying charges.
  • Collective provisions at 1.35 of credit risk weighted assets.

Company Profile

National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) is one of Australia’s largest banks, with the majority of their financial service businesses operating in Australia and New Zealand. The bank also has a presence in Asia, UK and the US. NAB offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investing banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trusts and nominee services.  

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

Australian Market Outlook – 17 November 2021

Australian-Market-Outlook-17-November-2021Download