Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Oil Search– Investment outlook

The USD 19 billion PNG liquefied natural gas, or LNG, plant went a long way toward countering stagnating traditional oilfield productivity monetising isolated, but high-quality, gas resources. PNG gas is liquids-rich, which increases its value, but the entire proposition carries substantial risk because of investment needs and sovereign uncertainty. We expect near-term capital expenditure commitments to continue with expansion of the 29%-owned PNG LNG project, which produces 8.6 million metric tons per year. Production and earnings increased materially with the first LNG output in 2014. Oil Search has a debt-heavy balance sheet, as LNG was fully debt-funded.

Key consideration

  • More than 80% of our Oil Search fair value estimate derives from just one product, LNG. LNG prices are referenced on a three-month running lag to the average  oil price. Any analysis of fair value depends on the successful prediction of oil prices and the maintenance of the link between them.
  • Current earnings multiples are high, but the future is key. Earnings will rise when three additional PNG LNG trains are completed.
  • We are not entirely comfortable with such a significant proportion of value in one project, particularly with PNG sovereign risk. We apply a high discount rate to our fair value estimate.
  • Active in Papua New Guinea, or PNG, since 1929, Oil Search operates all producing oil fields in the country. The company has a long and profitable history of Highlands oil production, but the future value lies in substantial gas resources that were quarantined by a lack of infrastructure and high capital costs.
  • Oil Search can service its $2.3 billion in net debt using LNG and oil cash flow. OGroup equity output tripled to 29 million barrels of oil equivalent with the startup of the PNG LNG project and can grow further with completion of additional trains.
  • Past PNG LNG equity sell-downs by independents AGL Energy and IPIC were at prices considerably above levels credited in Oil Search’s share price.
  • Capital costs may escalate in this difficult operating environment. The foundation LNG project cost blewout by $3.3 billion to a colossal $19 billion.
  • Shareholders could see more heavy capital expenditure with a third PNG LNG train and other development projects.
  • Oil Search is an all-or-nothing bet on PNG LNG. Single development- project risk and sovereign risk are concerns.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Best Buy Co Inc

Revenue was $11.6 billion, up from $8.6 billion in 2021’s first quarter and ahead of our $10.4 billion forecast. Comparable sales were up 37.2%, bolstered by the domestic appliance segment (comps up 67%), which the firm attributed to economic stimulus and sustained spending on the home. Best Buy’s 6.6% operating margin was ahead of the 2.7% result in fiscal 2021 and our 3% projection and reflected an improvement over 2020’s first-quarter result of 3.7%. Fiscal 2022 first-quarter EPS came in at $2.32, well above our $0.90 estimate. For comparison, first-quarter 2020 EPS was $0.98.

While these results were impressive, we are skeptical about their sustainability as economic stimulus payments are set to end and other disposable income options are increasing. Management’s second-quarter guidance indicates a deceleration of comps (17%) and a flat gross margin compared with 2021 (22.9%). For the full year, we expect comps around 5% (in line with updated guidance of 3%-6%), flat year-over-year gross margins, and a slight increase in selling, general, and administrative expense. We don’t plan a material change to our $101 fair value estimate and view the shares as overvalued, given the headwinds Best Buy faces.

One notable takeaway in Best Buy’s favor was the efficacy of its e-commerce and omni channel strategy despite the reopening of physical stores. Sixty percent of online orders were fulfilled from a Best Buy store via shipping, delivery, or pickup in store. Additionally, online orders made up 33% of domestic sales, compared with 15% in 2020. The firm is planning to capitalize on this with its new Best Buy Beta loyalty program, which offers perks including same-day delivery and special member pricing. For Best Buy to remain competitive after COVID-19, an evolving e-commerce plan is imperative.

Profile

Best Buy is one of the largest consumer electronics retailers in the U.S., with product and service sales representing more than 9% of the $450 billion-plus in personal consumer electronics and appliances expenditures in 2019 (based on estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). The company is focused on accelerating online sales growth, improving its multichannel customer experience, developing new in-store and in-home service offerings, optimizing its U.S., Canada, and Mexico retail store square footage, lowering cost of goods sold expenses through supply-chain efficiencies, and reducing selling, general, and administrative costs.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Airbus SE

It benefits immensely from being in a duopoly with Boeing in the commercial aircraft manufacturing business for aircraft 130 seats and up; the pair of companies act as a funnel through which all commercial aircraft demand must flow. This allows both companies to actively manage their order backlogs to reduce cyclicality, despite the intense cyclicality of the customer base.

Airbus’ commercial aircraft segment can broadly be split into two parts: nimble narrow-bodied planes that are ideal for efficiently running high-frequency short-haul routes, and wide-bodied behemoths that are generally reserved for transcontinental flights. Recently, narrow-body volume has increased substantially due to the rise globally of low-cost carriers and improved technology that allows smaller airplanes to operate flight paths that were previously unprofitable. We think that Airbus’ A320 family has taken the advantage in the upper end of this market, with the introduction of the A321neo LR and the forthcoming A321neo XLR, which will have a capacity of 4,700 nautical miles and would enable single-aisle routes from India to Europe. We anticipate that further technology improvements will push low-cost carriers into routes that have been dominated by legacy carriers.

On the wide-body side of the market, we anticipate much slower growth, as we expect improving technology will allow airlines to substitute narrow bodies for wide bodies for an increasing number of routes. Airbus has a competitive wide-body offering, the A350, though backlogs suggest that Boeing’s comparable 777, 777X, and 787 offerings resonate more with customers. Airbus also has segments dedicated to the production of defense-specific products and helicopter manufacturing. These businesses are less material to Airbus as a whole, generating slightly over 10% of our midcycle EBIT. We anticipate modest growth from these segments, largely assuming that defense spending as a proportion of GDP remains constant in the European Union and that helicopter deliveries rebound over the medium term.

Bulls say

  • Airbus’ A320 family continues to have a substantial lead in the valuable narrow-body market, and the A321neo XLR has the potential to open new long range routes to low-cost carriers.
  • Airbus is well positioned to benefit from emerging market growth in revenue passenger kilometers and a robust developed-market replacement cycle.
  • We expect that commercial airframe manufacturing for aircraft 130 seats and up will remain a duopoly over the foreseeable future. We think customers will not have many options other than continuing to rely on incumbents.

Bears Say

  • Aerospace remains a highly regulated space, and regulatory burden could increase globally subsequent to the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX.
  • It could take years for airlines to recover from the economic carnage caused by COVID-19, and the virus could lead to changed consumer behavior that would be unfavorable for the industry (for example, video conferences replace business trips).
  • Aircraft development is susceptible to development delays and cost overruns.

Profile

Airbus is a major aerospace and defense firm. The company designs, develops, and manufactures commercial and military aircraft, as well as space launch vehicles and satellites. The company operates its business through three divisions: commercial, defense and space, and helicopters. Commercial offers a full range of aircraft ranging from the narrow-body (130-200 seats) A320 series to the much larger A350-1000 wide body. The defense and space segment supplies governments with military hardware, including transport aircraft, aerial tankers, and fighter aircraft (Euro fighter). The helicopter division manufactures turbine helicopters for the civil and para public markets.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Burlington Stores Inc

As economic stimulus was likely the primary contributor to Burlington’s 20% comparable growth relative to prepandemic first-quarter fiscal 2019 levels, we still call for normalized mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit adjusted operating margins long term. We have a favorable view of the chain’s improvement initiatives but believe the shares’ trading price assumes a best-case scenario.

Burlington’s $2.2 billion in first-quarter sales sailed past our $1.6 billion estimate (which was in line with the chain’s fiscal 2019 performance; we had been more cautious about the cadence of the pandemic-related recovery). Cost leverage led to a 10.8% adjusted EBIT margin, up nearly 370 basis points from the same period in fiscal 2019. Management did not offer guidance, but indicated it plans full-year sales to be around 20% higher than fiscal 2019’s $7.3 billion, and our prior $8.0 billion target should rise toward $8.7 billion, accelerating a recovery we had expected to extend into fiscal 2022. Leadership models a full-year adjusted EBIT margin decline of 20-30 basis points from fiscal 2019’s 9.2%, and our prior 8.7% mark should rise accordingly.

Although we caution against reading too much into a quarter borne of exceptional circumstances (easy comparisons due to 2020 store closures, stimulus, and pent-up demand), we believe the performance highlights Burlington’s greater agility as it executes management’s plans for more opportunistic inventory purchases. The chain was not spared the effects of global freight supply challenges, but we believe its work to use its reserve inventory and large roster of vendors protected its ability to flow product. We do not anticipate the freight issues will linger, with normalization as supply and demand dynamics stabilize alongside the economy.

Profile

The third-largest American off-price apparel and home fashion retail firm, with 761 stores as of the end of fiscal 2020, Burlington Stores offers an assortment of products from over 5,000 brands through an everyday low price approach that undercuts conventional retailers’ regular prices by up to 60%. The company focuses on providing a treasure hunt experience, with a quickly changing array of merchandise in a relatively low-frills shopping environment. In fiscal 2020, 21% of sales came from women’s ready-to-wear apparel, 21% from accessories and footwear, 19% from menswear, 19% from home décor, 15% from youth apparel and baby, and 5% from coats. All sales come from the United States.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.