Investment Thesis
- High quality fundamentals but trades on fair value considering trading multiples, valuations and dividend yield.
- High quality assets, business model and management team.
- Leading market positions with key sites in higher population growth areas.
- Positively leveraged to the growth in population over time.
- Increasing digitisation to remove more costs and increase the efficiency of the supply chain.
- Key leading indicators (such as basket size / items per basket) are improving for the core Australian Food segment.
- Transaction growth and customer metrics are showing improving trends.
- Capital management post Endeavour transaction.
Key Risks
- Further margin pressure in the Food & Petrol business.
- Increasing competition in retail and changing consumer preference and consumption trends
- Deterioration in balance sheet metrics due to earnings decline.
- Adverse movements in AUD/USD (international sourcing).
Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:
- Group sales of $60,849m, up +9.2% and +10.5% in 2H22. WOW saw strong 2H22 sales growth improved for all segments except NZ Food, which was impacted by Covid-related disruptions to availability and a market slowdown.
- Group gross margin was up +35 bps due to an increase in Australian Food of 74 bps offsetting a BIG W decline of 28 bps.
- Group CODB increased 89 bps, impacted by supply chain and team availability issues impacting efficiency in stores and DCs and the impact of BIG W’s sales decline in 1H22 due to store closures.
- EBIT of $2,690m, declined -2.7%, but made a strong recovery in 2H22, up +8.1%, driven by an +9.7% increase in 2H22 Australian Food EBIT.
- NPAT of $1,514m, was up +0.7%.
- The Board declared a final dividend of 53cps, down -3.6% (or excluding Endeavour Group, 53cps, up +3.9%). This brings FY22 dividend per share to 92cps, up +1.1%.
- Australian Food. Sales of $45,461m, was up +4.5% with comparable sales for the year increasing 3.5% (5.1% ex Tobacco). EBIT of 2,420m, was up +0.3%. EBIT margin of 5.3% was down -22bps.
- Australian B2B. Both sales of $3,963m, and EBIT of 42m, was significantly up from the pcp, reflecting the acquisition of PFD and inclusion of Endeavour Group revenue under the partnership agreements for the first time. EBIT margin of 1.1% was up 6bps.
- NZ Food. Sales of $7,092m was up +6.6%. EBIT of 2,420m, was up +0.3%. EBIT of $316m was down -11.9% impacted by challenging trading conditions, such as supply chain disruptions caused by a three-day strike in late November, widespread Omicron community transmission, and global shipping challenges. 1H22 sales increased +8.3%, due to lockdowns in mid-August which resulted in higher in-home consumption, however, the Omicron outbreak in March caused significant team absenteeism and disruption to the supply chain and stores which negatively impacted sales (2H22 sales growth slowed to 3.1% and 2.3% in Q4 with higher selling prices partially offset by lower volumes. EBIT margin of 4.2% was down 87bps.
- Big W. Sales of $4,431m was down -3.3%. EBIT of 2,420m, was up +0.3%. EBIT of $55m, was down -68.2%, as a result of store closures in 1H22, offset by sales in 2H22, which increased +4.0% to $2,083m. Q3 sales were impacted by limited customer mobility caused by Omicron early in the quarter but Q4 sales growth strongly recovered to +11.9% due to festive events (Easter, Mother’s Day and Toy Mania events) and cycling lockdown impacts in some Victorian stores in the prior year. EBIT margin of 1.2% was down -251bps.
Company Description
Woolworths Limited (WOW) operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia. Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales foods and offers petrol retailing. The company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Investment Thesis
- Trades on fair-value in terms of valuation.
- The portfolio is well positioned and diversified, providing access to a range of asset classes across sectors, including equities, private equity, private credit and property.
- Solid investment philosophy/approach given investment strategies have delivered above market returns over a significant timeframe.
- Strong management/investment team led by Rob Millner, with solid credentials and a strong track record of execution and active stewardship of capital.
- Strong track record of paying a consistent and increasing dividend for over 20 years.
Key Risks
- Deterioration in performance in investments.
- Global and Australian economic conditions deteriorate.
- The investment Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation of investments.
- Reliance on the investment team and their expertise to outperform investment benchmarks. Hence key man risks and departure of key investment personnel, especially Rob Millner.
Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:
- Group regular profit after tax of $834.6m, up +154.4%.
- Group loss after tax up -104.7% to -$12.9m.
- Net asset value up +71.6% to $9.96 billion.
- Pre-tax net asset value per share was up 13.8% for the period (outperformance of 20.2% against market).
- After-tax net asset value per share up 28.5% (outperformance of 34.9% against market).
- Net cash flows from investments up 93% yoy to $347.9m. Net Cash Flows from investments on a per share basis is up 28%, relative to FY21.
- The Board declared a final ordinary dividend of 43 cps, which brings total dividends for FY22 to 72 cps, up +16.1% and a 15 cps Special Dividend. Both fully franked.
- Strategic portfolio (48.6% of total portfolio). The portfolio retains 12.6% of TPG, 39.9% of New Hope, 25.4% of Tuas, 43.3% of Brickworks, 29.8% of Apex Healthcare, 37.0% of Pengana. API stake was sold to Wesfarmers. The portfolio delivered a total return of 25.8% over FY22, driven by gains in New Hope, due to higher coal prices.
- Large Caps (31.2% of total portfolio). The portfolio retains positions in companies within the ASX-100 index. The portfolio delivered a total return of -0.6% over FY22 beating the ASX200 Accumulation Index return of -2.2%.
- Private Equity (6.6% of total portfolio). The portfolio retains positions in unlisted companies such as Round Oak, Ampcontrol, Ironbark, Agricultural and Water investments, and Aquatic Achievers. Contributions to net cash flow from investments jumped 213% relative to the pcp. The portfolio saw a total return of 19.1%.
- Emerging Companies (6.1% of total portfolio). The portfolio retains positions in ex-ASX100 listed equities and unlisted growth companies. The portfolio delivered a total return of -2.3% over 12 months to 31 July 2022, outperforming the ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 7.5%.
- Structured Yield (2.5% of total portfolio). The portfolio retains positions of corporate loans or hybrid instruments. Net cash flow from investments of $19.7m was up +18.7% over the pcp.
- Property (2.3% of total portfolio). The portfolio comprises positions in actively managed direct property. Industrial development asset was acquired in Kirrawee, NSW and its Retirement lifestyle development (Sage by Moran at Cronulla, NSW) is currently under construction.
Company Description
Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (ASX: SOL) holds a diversified portfolio of uncorrelated investments across listed equities, private equity, property and loans. It has a flexible mandate to generate returns by making long-term investment decisions and adjust the portfolio by changing the mix of investment classes over time. The Company is the second oldest publicly listed company on the ASX and has been successfully managed by the same family from the outset: Lewy Pattinson, Fred Pattinson, Jim Millner and current Chairman, Rob Millner.
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
