Netflix has morphed into a pioneer in subscription video on demand and the largest online video provider in the U.S. and likely the world. Our economic moat rating of narrow is based on intangibles resulting from the use of Big Data stemming from the firm’s massive worldwide subscriber base. Already the largest provider in the U.S., Netflix expanded rapidly into markets abroad as the service now has more subscribers outside of the U.S. than inside.
The firm has used its scale to construct a massive data set that tracks every customer interaction. It then leverages this customer data to better purchase content as well as finance and produce original material such as “Stranger Things.” Media firms will continue to reap the benefits of both an additional window for existing content and another platform for new content. Larger firms like Disney+ and WarnerMedia have launched their own SVOD platforms to compete against Netflix.
Financial Strength
Netflix’s financial health is poor due to its weak free cash flow generation, large number of content investments that require outside funding (primarily debt), and content obligations. Debt has been taken on to fund additional content investments and international expansion. The net cash burn was over $2 billion in 2017, over $3 billion in 2018, and $3.5 billion in 2019. As of June 2021, Netflix has $14.9 billion in senior unsecured notes that do not have borrowing restrictions, but a relatively small amount due in the near term ($500 million due 2021, $700 million due 2022, $400 million due 2024, and $800 million due 2025), as the firm generally issues debt with a 10-year maturity. Netflix also has a material quantity of noncurrent content liabilities ($2.7 billion recognized on the balance sheet and over $15 billion not yet reflected on the balance sheet).
Bulls Say’s
- Netflix’s internal recommendation software and large subscriber base give the company an edge when deciding which content to acquire in future years.
- Netflix has built a substantial content library that will benefit the firm over the long term.
- International expansion offers attractive markets for adding subscribers.
Company Profile
Netflix’s primary business is a streaming video on demand service now available in almost every country worldwide except China. Netflix delivers original and third-party digital video content to PCs, Internet-connected TVs, and consumer electronic devices, including tablets, video game consoles, Apple TV, Roku, and Chromecast. In 2011, Netflix introduced DVD-only plans and separated the combined streaming and DVD plans, making it necessary for subscribers who want both to have separate plans.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
A blended benchmark of the Bloomberg U.S Government Bond Index (75% weighting) and the Bloomberg U.S Mortgage Backed Securities Index (25%), sticks primarily to government-backed fare (Outside of an occasional in the student loan-backed debt that carries a federal guarantee for atleast 97% of principal and interest) and doesn’t make big interest-rate bets. It plays to its strength in the mortgage portion of the portfolio, which typically accounts for 40% to 60% of assets, drawing on significant investments in proprietary analytics to identify mortgages with more attractive cash flow projections than their prices suggest. As of June 2021, the strategy’s market exposure stood roughly 107% of net assets.
Portfolio
The high-quality, government-focused portfolio tends to hold an overweighting in mortgages relative to its blended benchmark (75% Bloomberg U.S Government Bond Index and 25% Bloomberg U.S Mortgage backed Securities Index), with the team actively adjusting this mix based on valuations. Meanwhile, its allocation to U.S Treasuries accounted for 67% of assets in June 2021, up from 50% at the beginning of 2020. Here, the team favors 30-year fixed rate mortgage with repayment-resistant characteristics. The team has found agency collateralized mortgage obligations to be less attractive recently, trimming its stake to 9% of assets as of June 2021 from 14% at the start of 2020. These securities can be volatile and suffer from bouts of illiquidity, although they typically account for 3% or less of the portfolio and stood at less than 1% as of June 2021.
People
This strategy benefits from experienced leadership and a well-resourced securitized team, supporting a people pillar rating of above average. Sean Corcoran was named as a comanger when lrving left the team. Corcoran, a 19 – year fidelity veteran, previously analyzed commercial MBS and other non-agency fare as an analyst. Corcoran and castagliuolo draw on considerable resources, including eight dedicated structured-products analysts and five macro analysts. Five traders across agency, non-agency and rates markets support the team. In mid-2020, the team hired John Torregrossa, an experienced agency MBS trader with over 15 years experience, to replace veteran trader Steve Langan, who retired in late 2020.
Performance
Well time adjustments have aided recent performance. In 2019, an increase in its Treasuries allocation helped it to a 6.5% return which bested 75% of category peers. In 2020, the team increased its exposure to mortgages amid the first quarter sell-off, helping the strategy to a 6.9% return, which bested over two thirds of peers.
About the Fund
Fidelity Government Income Benefits from a well-resourced team and risk-conscious approach backed by the firms’s deep mortgage analytics. Fidelity’s significant investment in analytics, including a proprietary mortgage model that allows the team to quickly model changes in assumptions regarding borrower repayment behavior to identify mispricings in the mortgage market.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook
Incitec Pivot aims to expand its business around its strong global market share in explosives. This provides an increasingly stable earnings stream relative to volatile earnings from its fertiliser business. Competitive advantages include a duopoly Australian explosives business and global explosives operations. Incitec Pivot is also a dominant player in the Australian domestic fertilizer market and enjoys a degree of domestic fertiliser pricing power from its dominant market share in eastern states, but it is too small to influence global prices.
Explosives earnings are leveraged to mining volumes as much as price and should benefit from long-term global growth in demand for minerals and metals. Additionally, mining strip ratios are expected to increase over time, with more explosives required to mine the same amount of ore. Incitec Pivot is consequently focused on ensuring all new projects meet strict financial criteria. There will likely be an oversupply of ammonium nitrate in Western Australia to 2020 and in Eastern Australia to 2021.
Financial Strength
IncitecPivot raised AUD 645 million in new equity at AUD 2.00 per share in the second half of fiscal 2020. In conjunction with positive free cash flows, net debt fell to AUD 1.3 billion at end September, down 45% from AUD 1.9 billion at end March 2020. As at end March 2021, net debt worsened slightly to AUD 1.48 billion, for comparatively modest leverage ND/(ND+E) of 22%, but somewhat elevated net debt/EBITDA just over 2.0. It is pleasing therefore that management has expressed an investment bias to capital-light and faster cash returning projects aligned to the strategy.The equity capital raised in fiscal 2020 increased the company’s liquidity and supports a continued investment-grade credit rating.
Our fiscal 2021 EPS forecast is little changed at AUD 0.10 with full-year results to be released on Nov. 15. The global explosives provider deliberately brought down its Waggaman ammonia plant in late August 2021 in anticipation of Hurricane Ida, with an NPAT impact of USD 21 million. Post-hurricane inspections did not identify any material damage to the Waggaman plant. Incitec Pivot ended March 2021 with net debt of AUD 1.48 billion, for comparatively modest leverage ND/(ND+E) of 22%, but somewhat elevated net debt/EBITDA just over 2.0.
Bulls Say’s
- Investors enjoy bumper dividends at peak cycle times.
- Continued growth of the explosives business will reduce earnings volatility.
- Over the longer term, explosives earnings are favourably leveraged to mining volumes rather than prices, and mine strip ratios are expected to increase over time.
Company Profile
Incitec Pivot is a leading global explosives company with operations in Australia, Asia, and the Americas. We estimate its share of the global commercial explosives market at about 15%. Explosives contributes 80% of EBIT. Incitec Pivot is also a major Australian fertiliser producer and distributor and is the only Australian manufacturer of ammonium phosphates and urea. Ammonium phosphates are sold in the domestic market and exported.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.