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Australian Brokers Call – 02 November 2021

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Technology Stocks

L3Harris Continues to Delivers on Merger-related Synergies

came about from the merger of equals between L-3 Technologies, a sensor-maker that operated a decentralized business focused on inorganic growth, and the Harris Corporation, a sensor and radio manufacturer that ran a more unified business. Underpinning the merger’s thesis was an assumption that additional scale would primarily generate cost synergies but that eventually, the firms would produce meaningful revenue synergies.

Cost synergies to a large extent drove the 30-year wave of consolidation across the defense industry, which has largely generated shareholder value. Arguably, L-3 was an ideal partner for a merger of equals because L-3 operated as a holding company and there are quite a few potential efficiencies from consolidating the firm into a more integrated firm. The three biggest firm-specific growth opportunities for L3Harris Technologies are the tactical radios replacement cycle, national security satellite asset decentralization, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Supply-Chain Issues Constrained L3Harris Q3 Sales, But booking remains same 

L3Harris reported a strong third quarter as sales were limited by supply chain issues. That noted, the shorter-cycle prime is showing its portfolio is well aligned in the decelerating funding environment, as the organic backlog of about $21 billion is up 9% from last year and 4% year to date. Many peer defense contractors have had declining backlogs in 2021. Revenue of $4.2 billion missed FactSet consensus by 6.6% but non-GAAP EPS of $3.21 beat FactSet consensus by 0.8%. Organic revenue declined 1.2% as a 5.2% organic revenue decline in communications systems due to supply chain difficulties and a 2.6% revenue decline in integrated mission systems due to the timing of contracts more than offset low single- digit growth in the firm’s other segments. Sales activity was strong, the firm posted book/bills above 1 in three of the firm’s four segments, indicating that the firm’s revenue pipeline remains robust.

Financial Strength

L3Harris is in solid financial shape. The firm increased debt by about $4.5 billion in 2015 to fund the acquisition of Exelis, a sensor-maker that was spun off from ITT and had been paying down debt since. The firm’s all-stock merger of equals with L-3 Technologies did not dramatically increase debt relative to size, and projecting a 2021 gross debt/EBITDA of roughly 2.1 times, which is quite manageable for a steady defense firm. 

While L3Harris has some exposure to commercial aviation (depending on definitions, roughly 5% -15% of sales), The firm will be materially affected by the downturn in commercial aviation. L3Harris produces a substantial amount of free cash flow and is not especially indebted, so we anticipate that the company would be able to access the capital markets at minimal cost if necessary. 

Bulls Say’s

  • There is substantial potential for cost synergies from the merger with L-3 due to the decentralized organizational structure of the pre-merger entity.
  • L3Harris is at the base of a global replacement cycle for tactical radios, which we think will drive substantial growth.
  • Defense prime contractors operate in an a cyclical business, which could offer some protection as the U. S. is currently in a recession.

Company Profile 

L3Harris Technologies was created in 2019 from the merger of L3 Technologies and Harris, two defense contractors that provide products for the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) market. The firm also has smaller operations serving the civil government, particularly the Federal Aviation Administration’s communication infrastructure, and produces various avionics for defense and commercial aviation.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Australian Market Outlook – 02 November 2021

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Expert Insights Shares Small Cap

Rail Congestion a Headwind, but Robust Contract Pricing Driving Impressive EBIT Growth for Hub Group

In its flagship intermodal division, Hub contracts with the Class I railroads for the line-haul movement of its containers. It operates the second-largest fleet in the industry, with exclusive access to more than 30,000 containers, and enjoys an approximate 10% market share. By gross revenue, J.B. Hunt is the largest intermodal marketing company, followed by Hub and the intermodal divisions of Schneider National, XPO Logistics, and Knight Swift.

Hub has constructed intermodal and truck brokerage networks of sufficient scale to be attractive to customers (shippers) and suppliers, both of which benefit from using a larger intermediary. Sophisticated IT systems and market know-how enable customers to outsource intermodal shipping to an expert specialist, while Hub’s large volume of loads and significant control of containers make it an attractive customer to the Class I railroads. The company’s primary rail carriers are Norfolk Southern in the East and Union Pacific in the West.

Financial strength

Hub Group’s balance sheet is healthy, and the firm is not overly leveraged. At the end of 2020, Hub held a manageable amount of amount of debt, which is normally used to help finance equipment purchases as well as tuck-in acquisitions like the 2020 NonStopDelivery deal. Total debt came in near $270 million in 2020, including minimal capital lease obligations. Debt/EBITDA stood at a comfortable 1.1 times versus 1.0 times in 2019 and a five-year average near 1.4 times. The firm held roughly $125 million in cash at year-end 2020 versus $169 million in 2019. Historically, Hub’s model generated decent free cash flow in years when it wasn’t acquiring intermodal containers. Overall, free cash flow averaged 1.7% of gross revenue over the past five years, with capital expenditures approximating 3% of sales (3.2% in 2020). Capital expenditures will likely come in near 4% of sales in 2021 due in part to investment in additional intermodal containers to capitalize on growth opportunities.

Bulls Say’s

  • Spiking consumer goods spending and heavy retailer restocking are driving incredibly strong freight demand, tight trucking market capacity, and favorable pricing conditions for all of Hub’s operations in 2021.
  • Intermodal shipping enjoys positive long-term trends, particularly secular constraints on truckload capacity growth and shippers’ efforts to minimize transportation costs through mode conversions (truck to rail).
  • Intermodal market share in the Eastern U.S. still has runway for growth as rising rail service levels support incremental truck to rail conversion activity.

Company Profile 

Hub Group ranks among the largest asset-light providers of rail intermodal service. Following the August 2018 divestiture of logistics provider Mode, which was run separately, its core operating units are intermodal, which uses the Class I rail carriers for the underlying line-haul movement of containers (60% of sales); highway brokerage (12%); Unyson Logistics, which provides outsourced transportation management services (20%); and Hub Dedicated (8%), an asset-based full-truckload carrier.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Daily Report

Morning Report Global Markets Update – 01 November 2021

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Indian Market Outlook – 01 November 2021

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Japan Market Outlook – 01 November 2021