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Technology Stocks

Look Inside oOh media for Value as Investors Head Outside on Macro Risks

Business Strategy & Outlook

OOh media is strongly-positioned to benefit from the positive dynamics driving the Australian (and New Zealand) outdoor advertising industry. This has seen outdoors’s share of the total advertising pie lift from 3.5% in 2009 to 5.7% prior to COVID-19. The trend continuing, especially as the Australian outdoor medium’s share still lags Canada (8%), the United Kingdom (6%), and the global average of 6%-plus. Our view is based on three structurally related tailwinds. First, unlike other traditional media, outdoor audience is increasing. This is due to population growth, greater living density, and increasing commuter traffic on major roads, public transport and in retail precincts–fertile areas for marketers struggling to reach mass audiences in a fragmenting world. Second, a key Achilles heel for the outdoor advertising industry was the lack of reliable audience measurement. However, with the 2010 launch of measurement of Outdoor Visibility and Exposure, or MOVE, the medium now has greater legitimacy and offers a more robust way for marketers to assess the return on money allocated to outdoor advertising. Third, in contrast to its debilitating impact on other traditional media, digital technology is a growth facilitator for the outdoor industry. Converting a traditional outdoor advertising site to a digital one is attractive to marketers as it allows creative flexibility, immediacy and premium presentation. Digital conversion also benefits the outdoor advertising operator as it attracts new clients, allows greater inventory utilization and offers yield management flexibility. 

However, like all players in the outdoor advertising space, oOh media’s business model hinges on its portfolio of leasehold concessions. The contract duration for the roads segment is generally five to 10 years, typically with an extension option for another five years. The retail and place divisions are more varied, with renewal agreements generally directly negotiated. The risk is not the group failing to renew these concessions, but the terms on which they will be renewed.

Financial Strengths 

At the end of December 2021, net debt/EBITDA was 0.8 times, pre AASB 16. This to remain below 1.0 for the foreseeable future and within the renegotiated 3.25 covenant limit. The current dividend payout policy is reasonably conservative at between 40% and 60% of net profits after tax but before amortization acquired intangibles, allowing further investment in digitization and technology. However, due to the uncertain impact of the coronavirus outbreak, there were no dividends in 2020. But dividends were reinstated in early 2022 and to grow solidly over the next three years.

Bulls Say

  • Outdoor advertising is a growth medium benefiting from structural tailwinds such as increasing audience, more reliable measurement, and conversion of inventory to digital. 
  • Australian outdoors’s 5% share of the total advertising pie still lags Canada (8%), the U.K. (7%), and the global average of 6%-plus. 
  • OOh media may have failed in its attempt to merge with APN Outdoor in 2017, but it completed the acquisition of Adshel in September 2018 and there is an opportunity to extract sizable synergies from the combination.

Company Description

OOh media operates a network of outdoor advertising sites with a commanding share of the Australian market, and has also presence in New Zealand. It boasts a diverse portfolio of locations to service the needs of outdoor advertisers, and is particularly strong in the roadside billboard and retail (such as shopping malls) segments. OOh media offers these services by entering into lease arrangements with owners of outdoor sites–effectively an intermediary allowing site owners to monetize their visible space in high-traffic areas. In late September 2018, the group completed the acquisition of Adshel from HT&E for AUD 570 million, a deal that cements its competitive position in the face of industry consolidation

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

We Increase Lufthansa’s FVE as We Update Our Model

Business Strategy & Outlook

Deutsche Lufthansa is a European network carrier utilizing a hub-and-spoke model. Its major hubs are Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna, and Zurich and flies under the Lufthansa, Swiss Air, and Austrian Airlines brands. As a result of the coronavirus downturn the group embarked on a cost and fleet restructuring program, which will see it emerge as a smaller business. Despite the smaller size the group to become a more profitable business as a result of structural cost reductions and fleet efficiencies and forecast EBIT growth of 8.5% per year to 2026 from 2019 pre coronavirus levels. However, the negative about the prospects for shareholder value creation due to the high level of indebtedness. 

In 2020, the group received a government-backed support package totaling EUR 9 billion, which included an equity stake of 20% by the German government for EUR 306 million. As part of the approval process the European Commission required the group to surrender 26 slots at its Frankfurt and Munich hubs to new competitors. Despite the recent EUR 2.1 billion rights issue, the group remains highly indebted, which may require additional capital restructuring if cash flows don’t recover to suitable levels to deleverage organically. Due to the group’s indebtedness and highly uncertain timing of a recovery in cash flows, there is still a wide range of possible outcomes for the group’s equity value. The company will retire and dispose of its older fleet, which will see the group emerge with 100 to 150 fewer aircraft than its current 760-strong fleet. The group is in the process of restructuring its cost base and aims to reduce its current 138,000 employees by 16% and cut the management team by 20% by 2022. The group can drive higher load factors as a result of better utilization of a more efficient fleet and emerge with a structurally higher EBIT margin of 8% in 2025, which compares with an average margin of 7% over the five years pre-COVID-19.

Financial Strengths 

The Lufthansa is in a weak financial position due to its high levels of indebtedness. The coronavirus pandemic dealt a heavy blow to the aviation industry, resulting in record losses, cash outflows, and growing debt levels. To bolster liquidity, the group agreed to a EUR 9 billion government support package, which included the German state taking a 20% ownership in the group. Net debt, including pension provisions of EUR 7.6 billion, at the end of December 2021 equated to EUR 15.6 billion. The group is highly geared, with a net debt to prepandemic EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times, and it could require multiple years of deleveraging to restore the balance sheet to maintainable levels.

Bulls Say

  • COVID-19 presents the group with a unique opportunity to structurally lower its cost base and emerge from the crisis with better profitability. 
  • The airline has dominant positions at the key European hubs of Frankfurt and Munich, which could be an early beneficiary of a recovery in air travel. 
  • Fleet reduction through the retirement of older and less efficient aircraft could lead to a more rational fleet with higher load factors and unit revenue.

Company Description

Deutsche Lufthansa is a European airline group. The company operates under the Lufthansa, Swiss Air, Austrian Airlines and Euro wings brands. In 2019, the company carried 145 million passengers to its network of 318 destinations globally. The group’s main airport hubs are Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna and Zurich. The company generated sales of EUR 36.4 billion in 2019. 

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Aviva Is Shifting the Focus of Its Business

Business Strategy & Outlook

As a good middle-of-the-road insurer Aviva has had its fair share of problems over the years. As with many previously poorly run companies, these issues have stretched across leverage, controls, turnover and likely relatedly, its sprawling business portfolio. While prior leadership teams tried to get a handle on this business, up until now none have really done so. The attribute this to a focus on growth and innovation, without a focus on strong capital management and discipline. Mark Wilson’s tenure was characterized by the Friends Life acquisition, the digital garage and his appointment at BlackRock. It felt like Maurice Tulloch would tilt the business more toward general insurance but it is likely that the business’ problems became too much for him. Present CEO Amanda Blanc is now set on making things right and has divested noncore assets, promising now to focus on the U.K., Ireland, and Canada.

Aviva is not a highly differentiated business and does not have a strong strategy. As a middle of the road business one can think reinvestment is critical. Two of its three objectives have been achieved in and those are focus and financial strength. However, what to see is how Blanc will transform the remaining assets into a collection of units that are better than they are and perhaps approaching market-leading. From what this is about investing in exceptional customer service and it’s hard to imagine anyone disputing that need. All too often that falls by the wayside in this segment of financial services. However, there is no disputing that excellent customer service has tangible and financial benefits. It leads to lower customer turnover and lower acquisition costs both in terms of volume and margin. Lastly, this is largely a long-term savings business so accretive investment in Aviva Investors will be crucial.

Financial Strengths

The Aviva has a weak balance sheet. Aviva’s debt is a little over half of its shareholders’ equity. Most of this is core structural borrowings that are held by the center. Pleasingly, management has decided to appease investors with a near GBP 2.0 billion debt reduction in 2021 and a further GBP 1.0 billion debt reduction program over the coming years. This debt reduction plan has been assisted by the GBP 7.5 billion raised from the eight business sales. This has provided management with plenty of room to commence a GBP 1.0 billion buyback on top of the deleveraging. The net of these actions should substantially improve the business’ leveraged position. The interim dividend for 2021 was increased to GBX 7.35 per share and the total dividend for the year will be GBX 22.0. This means a final of GBX 14.7 per share for full-year 2021. Guidance is for a dividend of GBX 31.5 for full results of 2022.

Bulls Say

  • Aviva’s new CEO is still making good strides to focus, transform, and simplify the business.
  • Leverage has been an issue, and this is a primary focus of the new management team.
  • Targeted capital remittance plans provide a nice buffer for further buybacks or business reinvestment.

Company Description

Aviva is a multiline insurer headquartered in the United Kingdom. It traces its roots back to the late 1700s with the establishment of the Hand-in-Hand Fire Office, a mutual insurer of loss from fire. This mutual, along with many other entities acquired and established over the years, was purchased by Commercial Union in 1905. In the late 1990s, Commercial Union and General Accident merged to form Commercial General Union, or CGU. A few years later CGU and Norwich Union merged and later rebranded as Aviva. Aviva acquired Friends Life in 2015. Aviva has been through quick successions of leadership in recent years. Mark Wilson served as CEO in the five years between 2013 and 2018. Then Maurice Tulloch took over and led up to July 2020. Amanda Blanc has led since then.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

Despite Inflationary Headwinds and Competitive Angst, Wide Moat Coca-Cola Maintains Its Dominance

Business Strategy and Outlook

Coca-Cola’s ubiquity and brand resonance in the non-alcoholic beverage category has been going strong for over 130 years, and the structural dynamics that will ensure this persists. Despite competing in a mature industry, the firm is adequately exposed, either directly or indirectly, to growth vectors such as premium water and energy drinks. Moreover, it is believed Coke will be able to continue extracting incremental value growth from the carbonated soft drink, or CSD, market. The runway for growth is supported by ample room for share gains as well as geographic tailwinds. It is estimated Coke derives more than 40% of sales from developing or emerging economies with burgeoning middle classes and low per-capita CSD consumption. It is expected commercial drinks will become a larger portion of beverage consumption globally and see the company executing against each of its market-specific strategies.

In developed markets, where Coke has firmly established the resonance of its brands, its strategies are geared toward profit growth driven by innovation. In developing markets, where its trademarks are visible but competition is rife, differentiation and eventual migration into higher-margin offerings is key. In emerging markets where the firm is less established, it is focused on driving volume growth even at the expense of modest margin dilution. These approaches are prudent and it is believed the decision to cull peripheral brands (going from 400 master brands to 200) will facilitate execution. Coke’s future trajectory is not without risk, as it faces secular headwinds in terms of consumer sentiment, well-capitalized rivals, and lingering COVID-19 disruption in some international markets. Still, with a more aligned and technologically capable distribution system, digitization initiatives to drive engagement and operational efficiency, and vast financial resources, the firm is more than equipped to defend its turf. Ultimately, Coke’s overarching goal is to put drinks in more hands in more places more quickly than any competitor. It is believed this pithy synopsis represents the crux of the firm’s competitive positioning, underpinned by its cost advantage and intangible assets.

Financial Strength

It is believed Coca-Cola is in stellar financial health. The firm deliberately skews its capital structure toward debt, on the premise that the lower-cost financing ultimately increases returns to shareholders. However, it is not necessary, the bottom line is, the firm should not have any problem managing its debt load, given its margin and free cash flow profile. Coke regularly generates free cash flow above $8 billion (in the high-teens to low-20s range as a percentage of sales), even amid the disruption caused by COVID-19. There are even higher levels driven by improving margins and working capital initiatives. Management has made commendable strides toward top-tier receivable and payable management, and the supply chain initiatives combined with a reworked bottler system should yield modest improvements in inventory management. Moreover, Coca-Cola boasts strong coverage ratios above its peers. One of the better illustrations of Coke’s financial strength is its ability to operate one of the larger domestic commercial paper programs. Issuing commercial paper is an integral part of the company’s cash management strategy, and the fact that investors and financial institutions are consistently willing to finance the company at such low rates lends credence to the reliability of its cash flows. The firm typically issues new commercial paper once it pays off a previous maturity, and the capacity to persistently finance its operations cheaply reinforces its financial strength. Management has a long-term target net-debt level of 2-2.5 times EBITDA, which is believed to be reasonable. Leverage levels ticked up as management tapped capital markets to shore up liquidity amid the coronavirus pandemic, but the recovery in the business and the spigot of free cash have already brought leverage back within this comfortable range; while it may oscillate from time to time, expecting it to remain manageable longer term.

Bulls Say’s

  • By volume, Coke is almost 3 times the size of its nextlargest competitor in the global non-alcoholic readyto-drink market, which begets scale benefits. 
  • Despite a greater focus on marketing efficiency, its ad budget is still unparalleled and should help maintain consumer awareness and brand relevance. 
  • The recently established platform services group should allow Coke to more effectively leverage data and improve technological capabilities across its mammoth production and go-to-market system.

Company Profile 

Coca-Cola is the largest non-alcoholic beverage entity in the world, owning and marketing some of the leading carbonated beverage brands, such as Coke, Fanta, and Sprite, as well as nonsparkling brands, such as Minute Maid, Georgia Coffee, Costa, and Glaceau. Operationally, the firm focuses its manufacturing efforts early in the supply chain, making the concentrate (or beverage bases) for its drinks that are then processed and distributed by its network of more than 100 bottlers. Concentrate operations represent roughly 85% of the company’s unit case volume. The firm generates most of its revenue internationally, with countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Japan being key markets outside of the U.S.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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USA Market Outlook – 10 June 2022

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