Business Strategy and Outlook
Ageas is lacking clear direction and a proven strategy. Ageas is present in Belgium, U.K., continental Europe, and Asia as well as running its own reinsurance operation. Tack on to that the importance of the business’ asset management, you are essentially left with a business that has six divisions. Insurance is a complex set of products and the historical approach has been one of diversification. However, it can be seen within primary insurers and in particular multilines, with increasing diversification these businesses can lack specific expertise and master none. This approach to diversification is highly important in the reinsurance business. With exposure to large and lumpy losses these businesses will want to ensure that during those times they have more steady and reliable sources of income. But for primary insurers much of this tail risk is indemnified and this leaves managerial attention a crucial input for shareholder outcomes. It can be found within this and in particular in smaller multilines, is this diversification leads to a dilution of expertise and thus reduces firms’ dominance in their chosen fields.
This strategy of greater diversification unwinds. For example, Prudential has been separated into three distinct geographical businesses that focus purely on life insurance products that are most relevant in each of these locales. Given the strength of the management team and dominance of the respective primary product in each of these regions, in the long term this strategy will not be one that prevails. Aegon is a company that has long-lost the investment community on its strategic direction and rationale. This business is now focusing on just three markets and has also started to trim its portfolio to one that focusses on the accumulation side. Aviva is another business that suffered from the diversification cloud. However, it is now only focusing on three end-markets with force; this has been well received via shareholder distributions. Ageas is to take a similar stand.
Financial Strength
Ageas has quite a high amount of debt on its balance sheet relative to the amount of capital that shareholders own. While the interest Ageas pays on this debt is quite low, the fluctuation of the value in the RNPI and the high value of associates means the quality of Ageas’ balance sheet isn’t high. Furthermore, cash seems to be a little low and Ageas management have discussed either a buyback or eyeing more mergers and acquisitions. Buybacks unless the business is looking to buy into more of its existing partnerships within its Asian operations. Ageas runs its own reinsurance division is not likeable. This is only for its nonlife sales and the rationale provided by management is this diversification frees up capital for investment and distributions to shareholders. Ageas doesn’t have deep expertise here, and while the lines in nonlife that it underwrites are standard, it would be much more sensible to leave this to the experts and focus on what it knows. This would provide more comfort in anticipation of an extreme event, so that Ageas’ balance sheet was fully equipped to handle it. The majority of Ageas’ financial investments are held in government debt. However, there is around EUR 4.1 billion in available for-sale unrealised gains. Then there are the nearly EUR 13.4 billion in loans, a little over EUR 10.8 billion is unsecured. It doesn’t appear to be a particularly tidy, secure or strong balance sheet.
Bulls Say’s
- It can be sensed that operationally this is not such a bad business. However, with the scant disclosures on operations there’s a little way of knowing.
- In Asia Ageas seems to go from strength to strength. Now it is investing more here though, it is hesitant on Chinese reinsurance allocation.
- By and large a decent looking fixed-income portfolio. However, it is less keen on the level of unsecured loans.
Company Profile
Ageas is a life and nonlife insurance company that derives most of its income from life and savings, mostly from Belgium and is headquartered in Brussels. Ageas is essentially the result of the failed bid for ABN Amro by Banco Santander; Fortis; Royal Bank of Scotland. The capital requirements placed on these banks as a result of the acquisition combined with severe write-downs on its collateralised debt obligations in the case of Fortis left the business requiring capital. Understandably, a less successful capital raising that took place the GLOBAL financial crisis wasn’t enough and the bank, Fortis, had to be sold and nationalised. What remained was Fortis Insurance, which in 2010 was renamed to Ageas.
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy and Outlook
Wolters Kluwer has over the past decade or so undergone a wholesale reorganization of its business, taking it from being the leading print publisher of professional information materials to being one of the largest players in the potentially much larger digital information services space. This change has come at a cost, however, with the company spending over EUR 2 billion on net acquisitions over the period in order to position itself better in the digital information services market. Wolters’ legacy print business, which is declining at a high-single-digit rate each year, has proved to be a drag on the overall business, with organic revenue growth improving to 4.3% in 2019, the highest level in over a decade, while the proportion of print revenue fell to a new low of 9% in 2020.
The inflection point for Wolters Kluwer has now been reached, with print revenue now at a single-digit contribution to group revenue, down from 52% in 2004. With print revenue now posing less of a drag on the group, and the company’s more scalable elements gaining traction with clients, the organic revenue growth should increase linearly, albeit modestly from here. Recurring revenue across the group has also increased materially and currently stands at 80% of total revenue for 2020, increasing the stability and predictability of the underlying revenue base. These factors have also resulted in material improvements in operating margins across key verticals. Examples of this can be seen in core products such as UpToDate in the clinical solutions business, which is currently growing at double-digit rates, driving operating margins in the health business to all-time highs. As the company moves up the value chain in the information services it offers to clients, further enhancement to margins across a variety of business activities is eminently possible. However, there are inherent risks in Wolters’ strategy, as the company has moved from a print publishing business with relatively few competitive pressures to a digital information business in which it must keep innovating to stay ahead of existing and new competitors.
Financial Strength
Wolters Kluwer’s net debt/EBITDA ratio is 1.9 times, very much at the lower end of its historical range and comfortably below its 2.5 times long-term target. This is broadly in line with the industry average and it would be considered reasonable, particularly given the relative stability in the company’s revenue base. Wolters is broadly diversified (by geography and business lines) and has made significant progress increasing its recurring revenue streams, which now stand at 80% of total revenue. The company’s debt maturities are long-term-weighted, with only around 20% of its total debt maturing in the next two years. Wolters primarily returns its excess capital to shareholders via a progressive dividend policy, with a payout ratio averaging close to 50% over the past decade. Given the lack of large acquisitions and the strong cash flow, the company has also been active in buying back shares over the past few years.
Bulls Say’s
- Wolters serves professionals in highly specialized niches, in which it generally holds a number-one or number-two market position.
- Digital is more scalable than physical distribution, so the mix shift toward software solutions will help the firm to reduce expenses and expand margins.
- Wolters serves numerous niches where there are few reputable alternatives, and pricing tends to be more rational among the major players as a result.
Company Profile
Wolters Kluwer is a Europe-listed global information services company. It operates across four distinct business segments serving a wide array of clients: health (26% of 2020 sales), tax and accounting (31%), legal and regulatory (23%), and governance, risk, and compliance (20%). Within these divisions, Wolters aims to be the industry leader in a variety of niche, higher-value services
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy and Outlook
Biogen’s specialty-market-focused drug portfolio and novel, neurology-focused pipeline create a wide economic moat. Biogen’s strategy has its roots in the 2003 merger of Biogen (multiple sclerosis drug Avonex) and Idec (cancer drug Rituxan). While Rituxan is succumbing to biosimilar competition, Biogen is expanding its neurology portfolio beyond MS, including blockbuster neuromuscular disease drug Spinraza and several promising drugs behind Aduhelm in Alzheimer’s disease. n MS, Avonex and longer-acting Plegridy still generate nearly $2 billion in annual sales and remain the leading MS interferon drugs. Biogen’s MS antibody Tysabri also sees $2 billion in annual sales due to its high efficacy. Oral MS drug Tecfidera peaked above $4 billion in sales in 2019, but U.S. generics drastically cut into sales in 2021 after entry in 2020. The new oral therapy Vumerity offers improved GI tolerability but will only partly offset this headwind. While pricing power and demand for Biogen’s injectable MS portfolio are eroding in the face of new competition, Biogen receives substantial royalties on the biggest new competitor, Roche’s Ocrevus, which helps offset pressure on older MS drugs.
Outside of MS, Biogen has strong human genetic validation for its neurology pipeline. Spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza (partnered with Ionis) is a $2 billion drug, although competition from Novartis (gene therapy Zolgensma) and Roche (oral drug Evrysdi) are beginning to erode sales. While Aduhelm was approved in the U.S. in June 2021, skepticism surrounding the launch and lack of Medicare coverage have made the drug a commercial failure. That said, Biogen and Eisai’s lecanemab (data fall 2022) could have more definitive data. While there is significant uncertainty surrounding Biogen’s Alzheimer’s pipeline, the market also underestimates Biogen’s remaining pipeline, which includes a continuing partnership with Ionis (including tau-targeting Alzheimer’s drug BIIB080) and drug candidates to treat conditions including stroke, depression, Parkinson’s, pain, and ALS.
Financial Strength
Biogen’s year-end 2021 cash and marketable securities balance ($4.7 billion) and free cash flow will help fund future repurchases and allow the firm flexibility on future acquisitions. Most maturities for Biogen’s $7.3 billion in long-term debt are well into the future, with only $1 billion in debt due before 2025. Historically, Biogen has focused on returning excess cash to shareholders via buybacks, but its limited acquisition and collaboration record is strong and more tuck-in acquisitions going forward. Of the $15 billion in free cash flow generated in 2006-15, Biogen spent the vast majority of this cash on repurchases, with an average repurchase price over 2006-15 of $87 per share.
Bulls Say’s
- Biogen leads the $20 billion global MS market with Avonex, Plegridy, Tysabri, and Tecfidera, and the launch of Vumerity partly protects Tecfidera sales from generic headwinds in the U.S.
- Biogen receives royalties and profit share from Roche on MS drug Ocrevus and cancer therapies Rituxan and Gazyva, boosting Biogen’s profitability.
- Biogen’s neurology portfolio outside of MS, including Spinraza in SMA, should help diversify revenue and boost sales growth.
Company Profile
Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen’s multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec’s cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel MS drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen’s MS portfolio is co-promoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with SOBI) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology and neurodegenerative diseases and has launched Spinraza with partner Ionis. Aduhelm was approved as the firm’s first Alzheimer’s disease therapy in June 2021.
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy and Outlook
ASML is the leader in photolithography equipment for semiconductor manufacturers. It is to materially benefit from the proliferation of extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography and the uncertainty concerning the long-term extent of EUV insertion has sufficiently diminished to justify a wide moat rating. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photomask onto a semiconductor wafer. A photomask is a flat, transparent quartz plate containing the microscopic circuit pattern. The latest technological advances in this field allow chipmakers to pursue Moore’s law and continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon. Lithography tools account for a significant portion of chipmakers’ capital expenditures, with EUV platforms exceeding $150 million in price. ASML’s immersion lithography tools allowed the company to capture and maintain the leading position in the marketplace, while competitors like Nikon and Canon do not have the scale or resources to compete at the cutting-edge. Traditional immersion lithography approached its limits years ago, and chip makers adopted non litho workarounds, such as multiple patterning that uses advanced etch and deposition tools from other equipment firms.
To continue pursuing Moore’s law, chipmakers will require EUV lithography tools. EUV uses lower-wavelength light (13.5-nm versus 193-nm for current immersion tools) and simplifies the process flow (3 to 6 times cycle time reduction as a result of fewer steps and 15% to 50% cost reduction compared with multiple patterning schemes). The top three customers of the firm (Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor) committed to help fund a portion of research and development for EUV technologies and acquired an aggregate 23% minority equity stake in ASML in 2012 (though these stakes have come down over time). EUV industrialization in high-volume semiconductor production is now a reality, with the technology having been implemented for a few process steps at certain 7-nanometer process nodes at TSMC and Samsung and more meaningfully in each foundry’s 5-nm process technologies.
Financial Strength
ASML has a strong financial position. At the end of 2021, the company had EUR 7.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments and EUR 4.1 billion in long-term debt on its balance sheet. This debt position is not an issue given ASML’s typical cash generation. The firm typically holds a significant cash position, which is appropriate given the cyclical nature of the semiconductor equipment industry. During downturns, the cash cushion allows ASML to continue investing heavily in research and development in order to maintain its cutting-edge technology position. This is especially critical in the highly arcane wafer fabrication equipment market, where companies that failed to stay at the technological forefront have seen their competitive positions erode in the past, though ASML’s dominance in lithography is unlikely to be challenged by Nikon or Canon. ASML generally returns excess cash to shareholders via annual dividend payments and share buybacks. At the end of 2021, ASML doubled its annual dividend to EUR 5.50. In July 2021, the firm announced a new share buyback program for 2021 to 2023 of up to EUR 9 billion.
Bulls Say’s
- ASML is the market leader in photolithography, an integral part of chip manufacturing, and is pioneering EUV lithography for the next wave of Moore’s law.
- The extensive technical expertise needed to develop lithography tools, which are highly complex and play a critical role in enabling Moore’s law, serves as a major barrier to entry.
- ASML has focused on operational efficiency in recent years to improve profitability throughout the industry cycle.
Company Profile
Founded in 1984 and based in the Netherlands, ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in the manufacturing of semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photomask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a meaningful portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. Chipmakers require next-generation EUV lithography tools from ASML to continue past the 5-nanometer process node. ASML’s products are used at every major semiconductor manufacturer, including Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.
Business Strategy and Outlook
SAP is a best-in-breed enterprise resource planning provider and holds dominant market share in global ERP software. However, SAP is phasing out its support of its on-premises ERP software such that by 2030 all of its ERP customers will need to shift to a cloud solution. This vulnerability is a significant threat to SAP’s switching costs, as competitors like Workday offer compelling cloud ERP solutions, while forced migration opens up opportunity to question a company’s best fit for ERP needs. In turn, SAP’s narrow moat, derived from its switching costs, is trending negative. However, it is still early in SAP’s transition of on-premises users to the cloud, which leads us to believe its negative trend could be prolonged.
ERP is not SAP’s only offering. The company offers software in its so-called intelligent spending category, which includes Ariba and Concur, which cater to procurement and travel and expense reporting. While ERP and intelligent spending software caters to operational data–otherwise known as O data–SAP also provides solutions around X data, or experience data. SAP has further entrenched itself in X data with its acquisition of Qualtrics experience management software. But, regardless of which type of data is flowing through SAP software, this data can be stored in SAP’s database offering, HANA, which is the only database compatible with SAP’s cloud ERP, S/4HANA (unlike on-premises ERP’s former database interoperability). Despite SAP’s efforts to nurture high attach rates among offerings amid the vulnerable transition to the cloud, such as via database lock-in, this is only ruffling more feathers among its customers that have adapted to the new norm of mix-and-match technology, which the cloud has enabled. Such lock-in attempts were influential in SAP’s historically declining net promoter score. Moreover, SAP’s efforts to add to its ecosystem in the hopes of more effortless user experience have proved to be anything but accretive, as its acquisition of Qualtrics has shown. SAP announced plans to spin off the company only two years after it was acquired.
Financial Strength
SAP has been acquisitive over the last decade as it has built out its ERP offerings. Despite this, SAP has maintained healthy leverage ratios and continues to do so with 2019 net debt/EBITDA close to 2. This figure includes the EUR 7 billion of debt SAP issued in December 2018 to finance the Qualtrics acquisition, leaving it with outstanding long-term debt of roughly EUR 14 billion and EUR 7 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of the fiscal 2020 third quarter. The Qualtrics acquisition has stretched SAP’s leverage ratio slightly beyond its normal levels over the last decade and may limit the company’s ability to make transformative acquisitions in the near future. SAP IS still having the ability to make tuck-in acquisitions, and with free cash flow of at least EUR 3 billion expected in 2020 and 2021, thus SAP is not having any troubles covering its financial obligations.
Bulls Say’s
- SAP should be able to migrate the majority of its on premises ERP customers to S/4HANA while continuing to add hefty net new customers to the platform.
- As more customers transition to the cloud, SAP should be able to extract significantly more lifetime value per customer, adding to its top line.
- SAP should see significant margin expansion as a result of improving scale in its cloud offerings.
Company Profile
Founded in 1972 by former IBM employees, SAP provides database technology and enterprise resource planning software to enterprises around the world. Across more than 180 countries, the company serves 440,000 customers, approximately 80% of which are small to medium-size enterprises.
(Source: MorningStar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.