our fair value estimate to $49 per share. Oneok’s second quarter clearly shows the firm benefiting from a recovery in volumes across its footprint after the COVID-19- driven decline last year as well as numerous new assets placed in service.
Given the strong results, Oneok boosted its 2021 EBITDA guidance to above its earlier midpoint of $3.2 billion, and toward our current forecast of $3.3 billion. Second-quarter EBITDA was $802 million, a 50% increase from last year’s levels. The largest contributor to its earnings improvement is a recovery in Rockies volumes, as well as higher realized commodity pricing on its gathering contracts with a percentage of proceeds component. Rockies volumes across its footprint have recovered over 85% since the second quarter of 2020 to nearly 300,000 barrels per day, or bpd, and Oneok still has 440,000 bpd of capacity, expandable to 540,000 bpd with minimal capital spending.
Every 25,000 bpd of Rockies volumes is worth another $100 million in Oneok EBITDA. Oneok remains well positioned to capture new opportunities in the Williston basin. The gas/oil ratio has improved 80% over the last year in the Williston basin, leading to a substantial recovery in gas production. Oneok’s second-quarter gas processing volumes were about 1.25 billion cubic feet per day, and the firm expects to connect more than 300 wells to its footprint this year.
The increased connections point to incremental upside of about 150 million cubic feet per day of processing volumes. Reducing flaring to zero across Oneok’s footprint adds another 100 million cubic feet per day. Beyond that, simply holding the current oil rig count flat in the Williston basin suggests another 1 billion cubic feet per day of upside in overall gas volumes over the next decade per Oneok estimates.
Company Profile
ONEOK, Inc. is an energy midstream service provider in the United States. The Company owns and operates natural gas liquids (NGL) systems, and is engaged in the gathering, processing, storage and transportation of natural gas. THe Company’s operations include a 38,000-mile integrated network of NGL and natural gas pipelines, processing plants, fractionators and storage facilities in the Mid-Continent, Williston, Permian and Rocky Mountain regions. The Company operates through three business segments. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment provides midstream services to contracted producers in North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma.
(Source: Morningstar)
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