The firm managed through a very difficult 2020 via sharply reduced capital spending, a nearly 90% dividend reduction, and expense cuts. So far in 2021, it has done a good job, reducing debt by nearly $800 million. Targa is by no means particularly conservative on capital spending plans–its initial 2021 growth spending plans were twice our original expectations, as the rest of the midstream space hunkers down. The firm has also hinted that it may spend virtually all its excess cash on rebuying assets from its Stonepeak joint venture in early 2022 at a cost of nearly $1 billion.
LPG exports are largely contracted out to 2022 and sent mainly to Asian and Latin American markets. The Grand Prix NGL pipeline will be a highly attractive asset tha takes advantage of Targa’s position in the Permian Basin to move over 350,000 barrels per day of NGLs by our estimates in 2021 (expandable to 550,000 b/d) to Mont Belvieu, and links Targa assets at both ends of the pipe, giving it more control over the molecule and ability to earn multiple fees. The Grand Prix pipeline will reduce Targa’s costs for NGLs, as it will no longer pay third-party tariffs to transport its NGLs to market.
Financial Strength
After updating our model to reflect Targa’s higher guidance, our fair value estimate increases to $38 per share. Targa’s second-quarter results benefited from higher Permian gas volumes, thanks primarily to higher activity by private operators. As a result, Targa increased its 2021 EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $1.95 billion from its prior midpoint guidance of $1.85 billion last quarter. The incremental cash is being applied smartly toward debt reduction for the time being, as Targa’s 2021 leverage target falls to 3.5 times from 4 times last quarter.
Total consolidated debt fell to $7 billion from $7.4 billion sequentially. Year-to-date debt reduction totals $780 million, which is impressive. Targa also announced a new 250-million-cubic-feet-per-day plant in the Permian to be on line in early 2022 while holding 2021 expected capital spending flat.
Peers tend to be around 75%-85% investment-grade or letter of credit-backed.Total liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $2.9 billion with no major maturities until 2026. Targa is now targeting leverage of 3-4 times as well as an investment-grade rating, which is a marked shift from prior commentary.
Leverage now stands at 3.8 times at the end of the second quarter, and Targa expects it to be around 3.5 times by the end of the year, which our current model supports.However, it’s not clear whether Targa can achieve both its new leverage goals and execute its expected repurchase of the joint venture assets from Stonepeak (included in its May presentation), which could take place as early as the first quarter of 2022.
Bulls Say’s
- Targa is leveraged to the high-growth Permian, and its Grand Prix pipeline is expected to increase volumes 25% in 2021.
- Targa has substantial excess cash after its dividends and capital spending plans in 2021 to allocate toward reducing leverage.
- Targa is a significant fractionation player at the attractive Mont Belvieu hub.
Company Profile
Targa Resources is a midstream firm that primarily operates gathering and processing assets with substantial positions in the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken plays. It has 813,000 barrels a day of gross fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu and operates a liquefied petroleum gas export terminal. The Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline recently entered full service.
(Source: Morningstar)
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